Group 1 - The A-share market continues its strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 13-day winning streak, reaching its highest level in over ten years since July 2015, closing at 4083.67 points, up 1.50% [2][4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,326 billion, an increase of 2,651 billion compared to the previous day, with over 4,100 stocks rising and nearly 150 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Key sectors such as insurance, energy metals, fertilizers, securities, and aerospace saw significant gains, while the beauty and personal care sector was the only one to decline [2] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the market's rise to external market recovery, a stable policy environment, and increased capital inflow, indicating a shift in market sentiment from volatility to positivity [6][7] - The financial and real estate sectors are stabilizing investor confidence, with continuous net purchases of ETFs reflecting long-term capital increasing its stake in core assets [6][7] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that China's GDP growth rate will exceed market consensus, recommending overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with expectations of a 15% to 20% annual increase in the stock market for 2026 and 2027 [7] Group 3 - The brokerage sector is experiencing a strong rally, with stocks like Huayin Securities and Huashan Securities hitting the daily limit, and several others rising over 6% [8] - The brokerage sector's performance is driven by a significant valuation adjustment since September 2025, coupled with increased capital inflow and regulatory easing, leading to a rebound in sentiment [10] - Analysts believe that the brokerage sector has clear opportunities for growth due to active market trading and supportive policies for leading firms [10] Group 4 - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper, is showing strong performance, with Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining seeing significant price increases [12] - Copper prices have surged, reaching new highs due to declining global inventories, improving economic expectations, and rising demand from high-copper industries in China [15] - Analysts predict a turning point in the supply-demand relationship for refined copper around 2026, with optimistic demand forecasts for both the U.S. and China [15] Group 5 - The chemical sector is experiencing a revival, with companies like Junzheng Group and Hengli Petrochemical seeing substantial gains [17] - Prices for key chemical products have rebounded, driven by concentrated inventory replenishment demand ahead of the Spring Festival, indicating a clearer signal of industry recovery [19] - Analysts expect the chemical industry to reach a cyclical turning point by 2026, supported by strong policy expectations and a shift in supply-demand dynamics [19]

格隆汇1月6日｜高盛发表中国商品报告，预期今年中国大宗商品需求将进入较稳定阶段，年增率大多介 于负1.3%至正2%之间，并从去年下半年起逐季缓步回升。下游需求面临减速压力，主要因为以旧换新 刺激政策转变产品焦点，但房地产行业影响及关税不确定性带来的风险亦已减轻。对大多数大宗商品而 言，供需平衡基本面稳健，宏观环境看来有利。但鉴于去年现货价格强劲及相关股份表现优异，预期供 应前景边际变化，将决定未来价格与利润率方向，并将由供应纪律与应对、反内卷及与并购及资产注入 三大关键主题主导。在个别商品方面，对水泥和煤炭看法逐步转向更乐观，对钢铁和铝则更趋审慎，并 维持对铜和黄金的正面看法，以及对锂和纸类包装的审慎立场。 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.06 地缘局势增加供给不确定性 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S088052 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: The price of liquefied natural gas has declined [2] - Agriculture: The price of pork has slightly rebounded [2] - Non-ferrous metals: The prices of aluminum, nickel, copper, and zinc have significantly rebounded [2] Midstream - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate reached a seasonal high yesterday, while other chemical products were at a low level [2] - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants was at a seasonal low [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities continued to recover [2] - Services: The number of domestic flights increased [2] Key Industry Price Indicators Agriculture - Spot price of corn: 2,248.6 yuan/ton, -0.06% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of eggs: 6.4 yuan/kg, 0.63% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of palm oil: 8,480.0 yuan/ton, -0.98% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of cotton: 15,602.8 yuan/ton, 0.35% year-on-year [34] - Average wholesale price of pork: 18.0 yuan/kg, 2.10% year-on-year [34] Non-ferrous Metals - Spot price of copper: 100,653.3 yuan/ton, 6.06% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of zinc: 23,952.0 yuan/ton, 3.87% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of aluminum: 23,323.3 yuan/ton, 5.98% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of nickel: 139,250.0 yuan/ton, 6.66% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of aluminum: 17,343.8 yuan/ton, 0.40% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of rebar: 3,228.0 yuan/ton, -0.09% year-on-year [34] Ferrous Metals - Spot price of iron ore: 817.1 yuan/ton, 1.02% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of wire rod: 3,492.5 yuan/ton, 0.72% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of glass: 12.8 yuan/square meter, -0.23% year-on-year [34] Non-metals - Spot price of natural rubber: 15,575.0 yuan/ton, 1.08% year-on-year [34] - China Plastic City Price Index: 752.7, 0.30% year-on-year [34] Energy - Spot price of WTI crude oil: 57.3 US dollars/barrel, 1.02% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of Brent crude oil: 60.8 US dollars/barrel, 0.25% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of liquefied natural gas: 3,238.0 yuan/ton, -2.18% year-on-year [34] - Coal price: 795.0 yuan/ton, -0.75% year-on-year [34] Chemical Industry - Spot price of PTA: 5,079.1 yuan/ton, 0.45% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of polyethylene : 6,410.0 yuan/ton, 0.52% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of urea: 1,725.0 yuan/ton, -1.85% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of soda ash: 1,208.6 yuan/ton, -1.40% year-on-year [34] - National cement price index: 135.3, -0.57% year-on-year [34] Real Estate - Building materials composite index: 115.3 points, -0.09% year-on-year [34] - National concrete price index: 90.4 points, 0.00% year-on-year [34] Other Information Production Industry - On the afternoon of January 5th, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The two sides emphasized strengthening cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, green industries, and the silver economy [1] Service Industry - The application for the child-raising subsidy in 2026 has been fully open since January 5th. As of 12:00 on the 5th, the child-raising subsidy information management system was operating smoothly. The biggest change in the online application for the 2026 child-raising subsidy is the addition of a renewal function. As of now, all 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China have issued the 2025 child-raising subsidy, with a cumulative number of over 24 million people, and the issuance rate in 2025 reached about 80% [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector is experiencing a correction due to the CME raising margin requirements, leading to a decrease in speculative sentiment and a drop in prices for silver, platinum, and palladium, with gold also following suit [1] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals, driven by potential political events in the Americas around New Year's that may trigger safe-haven demand, alongside inflows into ETFs due to interest rate cuts [1] - Long-term view suggests that the process of de-dollarization will continue, and investors are encouraged to hold positions despite market volatility [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices have risen, with a supply-demand tightness expected in 2026 due to lowered production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside anticipated increases in U.S. government spending [2] - The recommendation is to buy on dips, as current adjustments in copper prices present buying opportunities [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of a national subsidy plan in 2026, which aims to stimulate demand for consumer goods [2] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to maintenance at the Mozal aluminum plant, while demand is constrained by high prices and environmental production limits [2] - Overall, the recommendation is to buy aluminum and aluminum equities on dips, given the expected supply disturbances and potential demand growth [2] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased across the board, with significant rises in electrolytic cobalt and other cobalt products due to tight supply conditions and increased trading activity [3] - The domestic raw material supply remains structurally tight, providing solid support for prices [3] Group 5: Lithium - Lithium prices have surged, driven by favorable signals from domestic new energy vehicle subsidies and anticipated production resumption from major suppliers [3] - The recommendation is to buy on dips, as the market is expected to maintain a downward inventory trend amid stable demand [3] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Xiyu Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [4]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 地缘冲突对油价的持续影响取决于是否引发大规模，长期的实质性供应中断。EIA数据显示，2025 年委内瑞拉石油产量仅占全球约0.94%-0.96%，其潜在中断量不足以推动油价长期上涨。当前原油 市场处于供应过剩的累库阶段，EIA, IEA, OPEC均预估202601全球面临较大累库压力。美委局势难 以提供持续性基本面支撑,且美国行动意在接管委石油资源,若后续制裁放松,外资进入,委油产 量甚至可能增加。综上,油价仍将受共需宽松格局主导,维持中枢下行趋势。 (贵金属) 隔夜美国公布12月1SM制造业PM1录得47.9不及预期，为2024年10月以来新低。美国对委内瑞拉采 取军事行动体现全球地缘乱局延续，特朗普还对古巴、哥伦比亚等提出警告，关注后续演绎。 贵金 属牛市逻辑不改，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，短期关注前高位置能否再度实现突破，建议待波动率下 降后维持多头参与思路。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜触及13080美元记录新高，美盘主力及加权达到6美元/磅目标位。高盛预计未来十年铜目 标1.5万美元、7美元/磅。供应端，智利有小型铜矿罢工，市场关注高铜价对矿业投 ...

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2025 shows strong resilience amid uncertainty, characterized by heightened competition, moderate growth slowdown, and increasing risk pressures [1] - A significant shift in monetary policy is anticipated in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts leading to a favorable environment for commodity markets [1] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is expected to experience a major surge in 2026, with gold, silver, and copper reaching new historical highs, and target prices set at $5000/oz, $100/oz, and $7.50/lb respectively [1] - Gold prices surged from $2624 to a peak of $4378 in 2025, marking a cumulative increase of $1754 (67%) driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [3][5] - Copper prices also reached a historical high of $5.88, with a 47% increase from $3.98, influenced by supply constraints and rising demand [16][17] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued a downward trend in 2025, influenced by increased supply and declining demand growth, with prices fluctuating between $80.74 and $55.11 [7][11] - OPEC+ plans to gradually lift production cuts starting April 2025, restoring 2.326 million barrels per day, which raises concerns about oversupply [8] Currency Trends - The US dollar index experienced a significant decline of over 12% in 2025, dropping from a high of 110 to a low of 96.20, driven by economic risks and geopolitical factors [12][14] Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed a volatile upward trend in 2025, with the S&P 500 index rising by 26.84%, supported by AI infrastructure developments and favorable economic conditions [15]

1月6日，金田股份盘中上涨2.04%，截至09:38，报11.02元/股，成交5834.00万元，换手率0.31%，总市 值190.50亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入180.11万元，特大单买入130.70万元，占比2.24%，卖出0.00元，占比 0.00%；大单买入538.33万元，占比9.23%，卖出488.93万元，占比8.38%。 金田股份今年以来股价涨2.04%，近5个交易日涨2.13%，近20日涨3.67%，近60日跌12.61%。 分红方面，金田股份A股上市后累计派现9.30亿元。近三年，累计派现4.65亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，金田股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股2721.22万股，相比上期减少452.34万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，宁波金田铜业(集团)股份有限公司位于浙江省宁波市江北区慈城镇城西西路1号，成立日期 1992年6月20日，上市日期2020年4月22日，公司主营业务涉及有色金属加工业务,主要产品包括铜产品 和稀土永磁材料两大类。主营业务收入构成为：铜线(排)48.35%，铜及铜合金产品(不含铜线 排)41. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

Core Insights - The article highlights a growing trend among young investors, particularly in China, who are increasingly engaging in gold and other metal investments, driven by macroeconomic factors and the AI industry revolution [1][6][8] Group 1: Young Investors' Behavior - Young investors, like the character Yuanyuan, are actively researching and investing in gold, silver, and copper, moving beyond traditional savings to more complex investment strategies [1][4] - The concept of "doing homework" in gold investment has emerged, where young investors share their strategies and achievements in social groups, turning investment decisions into a form of social currency [2][3] - The demographic of investors is shifting, with over 50% of gold investors being born in the 1990s, indicating a preference for flexible and lightweight investment options [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of gold has seen significant increases, with a reported rise of over 66% since early 2025, marking the highest annual increase in nearly 46 years [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the current gold bull market is not overvalued compared to historical trends, with potential for continued growth due to concerns over the U.S. dollar and global monetary policies [7][8] - The demand for strategic metals like copper and silver is expected to rise, driven by industrial changes and the AI revolution, which may lead to a structural increase in prices [8][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - The future of precious metals investment remains optimistic, with expectations that gold's upward trend will continue, albeit at a potentially slower rate [6][7] - The relationship between gold and other metals like silver and copper is highlighted, with the potential for these metals to experience price increases as they gain recognition for their roles in the AI industry [8][9] - However, there are warnings that once the narrative around AI becomes clearer, the current high valuations of gold may decline, leading to a more rational assessment of silver's value [9]