交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：未来几天美伊将和谈，金价暴跌后反弹；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲 三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨4.39个基点报 4.279%；美元指数涨0.51%报97.61，离岸人民币对美元贬值报6.9414；COMEX黄金期 货跌1.35%报4680.90美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1008.6，现货1011，基差+1.4，现货升水期货；中性 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 3、库存：黄金期货仓单103029 千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：主力净 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘白天下跌之后有反弹，依然弱势。供应方面，前期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货 源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供，市场供应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾 与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不 锈钢价格或有反转。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求 提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货140200，基差10550，偏多 3、库存：LME库存285528，-756，上交所仓单46574，-302，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多减，偏多 6、结论 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of domestic urea are neutral, with current daily production and operating rates at high levels compared to the same period. As maintenance work concludes, the operating rate is expected to continue rising. The comprehensive inventory is decreasing, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although the Spring Festival is approaching, order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve and trade demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have increased significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory stands at 1.089 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is considered neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, suggesting a bullish trend. The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate, with the operating rate continuing to rise, downstream orders remaining acceptable, reserve demand increasing, and inventory de - stocking. The UR is predicted to show a fluctuating trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are high year - on - year. As maintenance work resumes, the operating rate is expected to continue rising. Comprehensive inventory is decreasing, with an obvious de - stocking pattern. Near the Spring Festival, order demand is acceptable, with good agricultural reserve and trade demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have increased significantly. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent downstream demand is fair, but the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1770 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.089 million tons (+0.009 million tons), which is considered neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, suggesting a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. The operating rate is expected to continue rising, downstream orders are acceptable, reserve demand is increasing, and inventory is de - stocking. The UR is predicted to show a fluctuating trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Likely to Rise**: The inventory is decreasing, and orders are improving [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic market is oversupplied [5]. Spot and Futures Market Information | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1770, with no change; the price of Shandong spot is 1770, down 20; the price of Henan spot is 1770, with no change; the FOB China price is 2934 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 05 contract is 1787, down 3; the price of UR01 is 1754, down 4; the price of UR05 is 1787, down 3; the price of UR09 is 1755, down 10. The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 17, up 3 [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 11,256, down 1,434. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.089 million tons, the UR manufacturer's inventory is 0.945 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 0.144 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Coking Coal - In the short - term, coking coal supply will be tight as some mines enter the holiday and more will shut down for the Spring Festival, while demand has declined as some coking enterprises have completed winter storage replenishment. The overall coking coal price is stable but slightly weak [2]. - With the downstream coking and steel enterprises in stable production and still having some replenishment needs, but limited by poor steel mill profits, weak terminal demand, and shrinking steel market trading volume, the demand for coking coal will be limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short - term [2]. 2.2. Coke - After the first round of coke price increase, coking enterprises' production enthusiasm has increased, but high raw coal prices limit their profit and production increase space. Some low - inventory steel mills still have replenishment needs, and coking enterprises' coke inventory is decreasing. However, due to the volatile finished product prices and obvious off - season characteristics, the steel mills' replenishment is limited. The coke supply - demand structure is approaching balance, and it is expected that the coke price will be stable or slightly strong in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1. Coking Coal - Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term as more coal mines will shut down for the Spring Festival. Some coking enterprises have completed winter storage, demand has decreased, new orders are few, auction conditions have weakened, and the overall price is stable but weak [2]. 3.1.2. Coke - After the first - round price increase, coking enterprises' profits have recovered, most are operating at normal loads, supply is relatively stable. Although some coal prices have declined, the overall coking coal price is still high, providing cost support [8]. 3.2. Basis Analysis 3.2.1. Coking Coal - The spot market price is 1,180, and the basis is 38.5, indicating the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. 3.2.2. Coke - The spot market price is 1,620, and the basis is - 60.5, indicating the spot price is lower than the futures price [8]. 3.3. Inventory Analysis 3.3.1. Coking Coal - Steel mill inventory is 801万吨, port inventory is 295万吨, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861万吨, and the total sample inventory is 1,957万吨, a decrease of 21万吨 from last week [2]. 3.3.2. Coke - Steel mill inventory is 626万吨, port inventory is 187万吨, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45万吨, and the total sample inventory is 858万吨, a decrease of 1万吨 from last week [8]. 3.4. Market Trend Analysis 3.4.1. Coking Coal - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [2][3]. 3.4.2. Coke - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend. The main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing [8]. 3.5. Price Information 3.5.1. Coking Coal - Imported Russian and Australian coking coal spot prices at various ports are provided on February 2, 2026, with some prices having changes [11]. 3.5.2. Coke - Port metallurgical coke price indices on February 2, 2026, including different types, ports, origins, and prices, are shown, and most prices remain unchanged [13]. 3.6. Inventory Changes - Coking coal port inventory is 295万吨, a decrease of 0.1万吨 from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1万吨, an increase of 1万吨 from last week [21]. - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3万吨, a decrease of 69.2万吨 from last week; coke inventory is 42.5万吨, an increase of 3.5万吨 from last week [25]. - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8万吨, an increase of 4.3万吨 from last week; coke inventory is 626.7万吨, a decrease of 13.3万吨 from last week [30]. 3.7. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货25030，基差+515；偏多。 3、库存：2月2日LME锌库存较上日减少900吨至109100吨，2月2日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加299吨至28767吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下, ...

作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 美联储按兵不动。宏观方面，商务部等九单位启动2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动，涵盖"好吃""好 住""好行""好游""好购""好玩"六方面内容。活动时间为2月15至23日春节9天假期，旨在打造全域联动、 全民乐享的春节消费盛宴。海外方面，美国1月ISM制造业PMI指数升至52.6，远高于预期的48.5，创 2022年8月以来新高，主要受新订单和产出稳健增长的提振。 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，上证指数跌2.48%收于4015.75点，创业板指跌2.46%。行业 方面，板块指数跌多涨少，仅食品饮料、银行行业收红，有色金属、钢铁、基础化工、煤炭行业跌幅居 前。当日沪深两市成交额约为2.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.05%报49407.66 点。 期指基差回落。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货基差大幅回落。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量增加， 仅IM持仓量同步增加。 策略 当日国内市场逐步消化海外流动性预期的波动影响，中证500、中证1000的波动幅度相对更为明显，所 受冲击也较为突出。不过从当前市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. For LLDPE, factors such as cost support from oil prices and neutral industry inventory are considered, but downstream demand is weak. For PP, similar factors like cost support and increased PDH device maintenance are noted, along with weak downstream demand in the off - season [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Due to geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are strong with short - term declines, affecting polyolefins. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6880 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 34.8 tons (-3.1), which is relatively high [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, and the industry inventory is neutral [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while weak downstream demand year - on - year is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Geopolitical disturbances affect oil prices and polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the plastic weaving and pipe industries is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6720 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The PP 2605 contract basis is 6, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 40.1 tons (-3.2), which is relatively high [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with short positions increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, the industry inventory is neutral, and PDH device maintenance has increased [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while the off - season of downstream demand is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 6880 (-60), the 05 contract price is 6878 (-136), the basis is 2, the warehouse receipt is 9308 (-71), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 34.8 tons, and the social inventory is 48.5 tons [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 6720 (-30), the 05 contract price is 6714 (-110), the basis is 6, the warehouse receipt is 17223 (-13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 40.1 tons, and the social inventory is 26.9 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, with capacity showing an overall increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 3584.5, with a growth rate of 12.4% [14] - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, from 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, and capacity also shows an increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5% [16]

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | COMEX | 黄金期货跌 | 1.35%报 | 4680.90 | 美元/盎司，COMEX | 白银期货涨 | 0.93%报 | 79.27 | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 | 3.86%报 | 1045 | 元/克，沪银主力合约下跌 | 20%报 | 20600 | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、截至 | 2 | 月 | 2 | 日，全球最大黄金 | ETF--SPDR | Gold | Trust | 持仓较上个交易日维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment suggests a reduction in investment weight for small and growth stocks, advocating for a strategy of overweighting the CSI 300 while underweighting the CSI 1000 due to increasing market risks [3][8][10]. Regulatory Environment - In late January, regulatory authorities expressed a clear intention to cool down the market and reduce investor leverage through multiple measures, including selling broad-based ETFs, adjusting financing ratios, enhancing monitoring of individual stock speculation, and media communication [3][9]. - The significant selling of stock ETFs has led to a noticeable decline in market risk appetite [3][9]. Policy Outlook - As February approaches, a new round of policy negotiations is expected, with domestic policy focusing on the "Two Sessions" and potential increased support for emerging industries, which may help mitigate downward market pressure [9]. - External factors include the tightening monetary stance of the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a repricing of interest rate expectations and liquidity tightening, potentially impacting both U.S. and domestic equity markets [9]. Market Dynamics - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility, with a recommendation to lower risk exposure and avoid risk-sensitive small and growth stocks [4][10]. - Since the fourth quarter of last year, technology-driven growth stocks have consistently outperformed, but the rapid rise in valuations for small and growth stocks may have peaked, while value and large-cap stocks are now in an oversold state [4][9]. Commodity and Stock Interaction - Recent significant declines in commodities have triggered corrections in related cyclical stocks, leading to a substantial drop in the broader market; however, the risks are considered manageable [10]. - The effective transmission mechanism of "commodity-stock linkage" poses a risk of localized declines, particularly in resource-related cyclical sectors, rather than dragging down the entire market [10]. Market Sentiment and Trading Behavior - The prevalence of quantitative trading and leveraged funds in the market may amplify short-term volatility through algorithmic trading and leverage-induced sell-offs [5][10]. - Historical analysis of the pre-Spring Festival market suggests a higher probability of large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks, reinforcing the recommendation to reduce exposure to small and growth stocks in the current risk environment [5][10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周五夜盘黄金白银大跌，白银触及跌停板 ...