Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term prices of precious metals may continue to strengthen due to the tense Middle - East situation and potential inflation, while the long - term logic of central bank gold - buying and de - dollarization remains unchanged. For copper, it's advisable to wait and see for buying opportunities. The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Alumina prices will likely maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the actual resumption of large factories. The price of lithium carbonate will likely oscillate at a high level. Polysilicon and tin prices are expected to be weakly volatile. In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is recommended, and short positions can be considered for some contracts. In the agricultural product market, different trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of each variety. In the energy - chemical industry, the trading of most products is affected by geopolitical risks, with different trends and strategies for each product [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the international gold price in London gold terms rose 0.82% to $5382 per ounce, and the international silver price in London silver terms rose 4.84% to $89.28 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, changes in US economic data, and fluctuations in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold; reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar, tight copper ore supply, high smelting production, and weak demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for buying opportunities [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 2.63% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly starting rate of aluminum products [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract rose 1.06% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 154 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity due to a combination of maintenance and resumption in alumina plants, and high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest and a decrease in settled funds and warehouse receipts [2]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces in the supply side, a slight increase in inventory, and the resumption of production in the downstream organic silicon and polysilicon industries [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the actual resumption of large factories [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 172,020 yuan/ton, a 2.28% decrease [2]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in production and a decrease in inventory in the first quarter, with different inventory trends in different links [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will likely oscillate at a high level [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 44930 yuan/ton, a 3.37% decrease, with an increase in open interest and a decrease in settled funds [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable production, an increase in inventory, and stable downstream prices [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the 44000 - 53000 yuan range [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices weakened significantly yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A stronger US dollar, expected limited resumption of production in Wa State, and a premium for deliverable brands [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade the short - term negative impact of resumption in Wa State and wait for a stable period to buy [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3059 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: A 50% increase in rebar inventory, a significant supply - demand differentiation in steel products, and low rebar futures valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider short positions in the rebar 2605 contract, with the RB05 reference range of 3030 - 3090 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 749 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, low port inventory, and neutral valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the I05 reference range of 735 - 765 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1084.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first - round coke price increase, high port and pit - mouth inventory, and high futures valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract, with the JM05 reference range of 1060 - 1110 [4]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean price fell overnight [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A good harvest expectation in South America, strong soybean crushing in the US, and a strong export expectation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybean is strong, and the domestic market is short - term volatile and slightly stronger, with attention to US soybean exports and South American production [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures and spot prices continued to rise [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Over 60% of grain sales, low port and downstream inventory, and downstream losses [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to downstream replenishment [7]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in February and a decrease in exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are in a weak cycle, but they rebounded due to the sharp rise in crude oil, with a reverse - spread strategy [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in US textile and clothing imports and a change in Argentine cotton exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with the price range of 15000 - 15800 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, with sufficient supply [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the supply of pigs after the holiday and a seasonal off - season for demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE rose significantly yesterday, with a weak basis and good market transactions [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A slowdown in domestic supply pressure and an increase in demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, with the upside space limited by the import window [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4868, a 1.6% increase [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An expected increase in PVC cost, high social inventory, and weak downstream demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1043, a 0.8% decrease [9]. - **Fundamentals**: A slowdown in glass production and sales in North China, an increase in inventory, and weak real - estate demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP rose significantly yesterday, with a weak basis, good transactions, a closed import window, and an open export window [9]. - **Fundamentals**: A reduction in supply pressure and an increase in demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, with the upside space limited by the import window; in the long term, it will be range - bound, and short positions can be considered at high prices [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC opened with a daily limit on Monday and rose 11% at night, with a $3 premium over Brent [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iran's high - concentration oil production and exports, and the potential impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading by buying options to control risks [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract of EB rose significantly yesterday, with good market transactions and a closed import window [10]. - **Fundamentals**: A normal - high level of pure benzene inventory, a normal level of styrene inventory, and an increase in downstream demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and long positions can be considered at low prices in the second quarter [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1188, a 0.2% increase [10]. - **Fundamentals**: A recovery in soda ash supply, an increase in inventory, and weak downstream demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 2, equity index futures were mixed, with most commodities performing well and Energy & Chemicals leading the gains. In equity index futures, IH rose 0.1% and IM dropped 1.1%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.55% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, SCFIS(Europe), Silver, and Fuel Oil were the top three gainers, while Poly-Silicon, Live Hog, and Sodium Hydroxide were the top three decliners [10][11][12]. - The price of crude oil is expected to rise due to supply disruptions. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have supported prices since January, and after the military conflict on February 28, oil prices entered a phase of verifying supply disruptions. The outcome of the conflict will affect the price range of Brent crude [16][17][20]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has stronger geopolitical sensitivity. The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran will impact Iran's fuel oil exports, and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause further supply losses. High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to reflect geopolitical premiums more strongly than bitumen, leading to a faster narrowing of the bitumen - fuel oil spread [26][27][29]. - The rise in the SCFIS(Europe) contract is mainly sentiment - driven in the short term. Houthi militants' threat to resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea may lead shipping lines to return to the Cape of Good Hope route, increasing the transit premium for the Strait of Hormuz. The SCFIS Europe Apr contract may rise to 1450 - 1500 points, and bullish sentiment may spread to the May and June peak - season contracts [33][35][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 2, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities showed high performances, with Energy & Chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IH rose 0.1% and IM dropped 1.1%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.55% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Silver, and Fuel Oil, and the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Live Hog, and Sodium Hydroxide [10][11][12]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Raise 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 2, the front - month contract of Crude Oil rose 9.0% to 527.8 yuan/barrel (INE). Since January, prices have been supported by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. After the military conflict on February 28, oil prices entered a phase of verifying supply disruptions. If the conflict is limited to military targets and ends in the short term, Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $70 - 78 per barrel before retreating. If the conflict impacts crude oil production or transportation, short - term price volatility will intensify [16][17][20]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - On March 2, the front - month contract of Fuel Oil rose 9.0% to 3186 yuan/ton (SHFE). High - sulfur fuel oil has stronger geopolitical sensitivity. The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran will directly hit Iran's fuel oil exports, and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause further supply losses. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to reflect geopolitical premiums more strongly than bitumen, leading to a faster narrowing of the bitumen - fuel oil spread. Investors may watch for opportunities to long bitumen and short fuel oil if the forward spread falls below 400 yuan per tone [26][27][29]. 3.2.3 SCFIS(Europe) - On March 2, the front - month contract of SCFIS(Europe) rose 15.0% to 1429.2 points (INE). Houthi militants' claim to resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea may lead shipping lines to return to the Cape of Good Hope route, increasing the transit premium for the Strait of Hormuz. The impact on Europe routes is mostly sentiment - driven in the short term. The SCFIS Europe Apr contract may rise to 1450 - 1500 points, and bullish sentiment may spread to the May and June peak - season contracts [33][35][39]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - On March 1, Wang Yi spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. China and Russia pushed for an emergency UNSC meeting on Iran. China upholds the UN Charter, opposes the use of force, and is highly concerned about the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. On March 2, MOFCOM stated China will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are beneficial to the price of precious metals, but they are more phased. The precious metals sector has high volatility. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a bullish mindset while strictly controlling their positions. In the long - term, the once - in - a - century changes and the Sino - US competition will continue to drive up the gold price [4]. - Affected by factors such as the chaotic international trade situation, the gloomy global economic growth prospects, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to move up strongly along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, historical experience shows that the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. Investors are advised to continue to participate in trading with a bullish mindset while controlling their positions. Long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The US and Israel launched a fierce attack on Iran, killing many Iranian executives. Iran retaliated by air - raiding US and Israeli military bases and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply increased, causing international oil prices to soar by nearly 10%. Driven by safe - haven and anti - inflation demands, the price of London gold has broken through the $5400 per ounce mark [4]. - This week, attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation, the Two Sessions in China, and the US non - farm payrolls in February [4]. Medium - term Market - After a sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. On February 20th, the US Federal Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration had no right to impose tariffs under the IEEPA, and the international trade situation became turbulent again, pushing the international gold price to around $5200 per ounce. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have further increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals [6]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,150.38 | 1,199.70 | 1,151.37 | 1,199.64 | 4.28% | 309,821 | 7555 | | SHFE Silver Index | 22,852 | 24,194 | 22,822 | 24,170 | 5.77% | 530,068 | 5322 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 621.98 | 639.86 | 603.30 | 624.59 | 0.42% | 29,411 | 505 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 463.50 | 472.15 | 454.57 | 462.48 | - 0.22% | 9,198 | 208 | [5] Main Macro - Events/Data - The US International Trade Commission (USITC) will conduct an investigation to evaluate the economic impact of revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) over a six - year period. The results will be announced before August 21st. It will also examine another scenario where if Congress revokes PNTR, partial tariffs will be gradually imposed on important products related to national security over five years [18]. - Oman, as a mediator, said that the US and Iran have made significant progress in negotiations aimed at resolving a long - standing nuclear dispute and avoiding new US military strikes. The two sides plan to return to their capitals for consultations and then resume negotiations as soon as possible, with technical - level discussions scheduled in Vienna next week [18]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased slightly by 4000 to 212,000 last week. With a stable labor market, the unemployment rate in February is expected to remain unchanged, indicating a "low - hiring, low - firing" state in the labor market. This confirms economists' expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Chairman Powell's term ends in May [18].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, have led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, especially oil and methanol, indicating potential investment opportunities and risks in these sectors [1][2][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices surged, with SC night trading up by 10.94%, following military actions between the US, Israel, and Iran, which included Iran's missile strikes on US military bases [2][11]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in oil tankers' navigation speeds dropping to zero, indicating a halt in shipping activities in the region [2][12]. - Major shipping companies, such as Maersk, have suspended operations through the Strait, further impacting oil supply chains [2][12]. Group 2: Methanol Market - Methanol prices increased by 5.47%, supported by stable operations in domestic coal-to-olefins (CTO) and methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities, with an average operating rate of 80.88% [3][13]. - As of February 26, methanol production facilities had an operating load of 78.24%, a slight decrease from the previous period but a 5.13% increase year-on-year [3][13]. - Coastal methanol inventories rose to 1.3987 million tons, reflecting a 0.77% increase from February 12 and a 35.14% increase year-on-year, indicating a stable supply despite geopolitical tensions [3][13]. Group 3: Financial Market Insights - The stock indices showed resilience, with major indices recovering from initial declines due to geopolitical fears, suggesting a shift from expectation-driven to profit-driven market dynamics [9]. - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield dropping to 1.79%, influenced by the ongoing geopolitical tensions and a shift towards risk aversion [10]. - The market is expected to focus on high-performing sectors as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Impact on Commodities - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to influence various commodities, with potential supply chain disruptions and increased costs for raw materials like iron ore and coal due to heightened geopolitical risks [24][25]. - The situation may lead to increased shipping costs and affect the pricing of commodities, particularly those reliant on Middle Eastern supply routes [24][25]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity markets is likely to remain volatile as geopolitical developments unfold, impacting investment strategies across sectors [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of military conflicts in the Middle East, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with predictions that Brent crude oil futures may exceed $100 per barrel in the short term [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices surged by 8% due to Iran's announcement of controlling the Strait of Hormuz, halting all shipping through this critical route, which transports approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products daily [2][12]. - The potential future scenarios for oil prices include: 1. A peaceful resolution leading to the lifting of the Strait's blockade, resulting in a temporary spike in global oil prices followed by a decline, but with a long-term loss of cheap Iranian energy for China [2]. 2. A continued state of war with Iran resisting U.S. influence, which is deemed less likely given recent domestic unrest in Iran [2]. 3. A scenario similar to Iraq, where a U.S.-backed government struggles to maintain control, leading to decreased oil production and ongoing threats to shipping in the Strait [2]. Methanol Supply Concerns - The geopolitical situation poses threats to methanol supply, with domestic coal-to-olefins (CTO) facilities operating at an average load of 80.88%, stable compared to previous periods [3][13]. - As of February 26, domestic methanol production facilities operated at 78.24%, a slight decrease from the previous period but an increase of 5.13% year-on-year [3][13]. - Coastal methanol inventories have risen to 1.3987 million tons, reflecting a 0.77% increase from February 12 and a 35.14% increase year-on-year, indicating a stable supply despite geopolitical tensions [3][13]. Financial Market Reactions - The stock indices are expected to be influenced by heightened geopolitical risks, with a shift from broad market gains to a focus on companies with strong earnings potential as financial reports are released [10]. - The bond market shows mixed results, with the yield on 10-year government bonds declining to 1.803%, reflecting a flight to safety amid rising geopolitical tensions [10]. Commodity Price Trends - The article notes that various commodities, including rubber and methanol, are expected to see price increases due to the current geopolitical climate, while other commodities like steel and coal may experience downward pressure [4][10][12].

多空交织，粕类维持区间震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织，粕类维持区间震荡 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 一.美豆短期偏强震荡 二.南美大豆丰产逐渐落地，粕类压力仍存 三.粕类维持区间震荡 一 .美豆短期偏强震荡 • 中国采购美豆基本完成目标 • 美国生物燃油政策 • 南美大豆产量些许变数 • 中东地缘冲突加剧 美豆周度出口检验环比回落,同比回升 美豆近期震荡回升，但上方承压 中国采购美豆基本完成目标 • 中国采购美豆数量基本达到1200万吨。 2025年10月下旬，中国国有企业（如中粮）开始集中采购 2025年11月至12月，累计采购量在2025年底已接近1000万吨 2026年1月至2月，中国完成剩余采购量，总量达到1200万吨 美国生物燃油政策 • 美国政府计划将 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **For soybean meal (M2605)**: The market is expected to oscillate between 2,800 and 2,860. The US soybean market shows short - term strong fluctuations, and the domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean trend and spot price premiums. With mixed news, it will likely maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - **For soybeans (A2605)**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 4,600 and 4,700. The US soybean market is subject to uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean market will maintain a high - level shock due to factors such as expected increases in imported soybean arrivals and short - term good demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - No specific content for daily hints provided 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US market oscillates above the 1,000 - point mark in the short term [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory in oil mills remains high in January. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, causing soybean meal to return to range - bound trading [12]. - Reduced domestic pig - raising profits lead to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing price expectations. The market is affected by both the US soybean trend and weak demand, maintaining a range - bound pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement has an impact. The short - term soybean meal market will maintain a range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean yields and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns **Soybean Meal** - **Positive factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has no pressure. There are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in March remains high. The harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [13]. **Soybeans** - **Positive factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market. The expected recovery in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - **Negative factors**: The good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans. The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean meal trading data**: From February 12 to March 2, the成交均价 of soybean meal fluctuated around 3,100 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and the trading volume also showed fluctuations, with a maximum of 10.52 million tons on February 25 [15]. - **Soybean and soybean meal price data**: From February 13 to March 2, the futures prices of soybeans (both No. 1 and No. 2) and soybean meal showed fluctuations. The spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal also had corresponding changes [17]. - **Soybean and meal - type warehouse receipt data**: From February 12 to March 2, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (both No. 1 and No. 2) and soybean meal changed. For example, the soybean No. 1 warehouse receipts decreased by 200 on March 2 compared to the previous day, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts increased by 2,313 on February 27 [19]. - **Soybean supply - demand balance sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 - 2025 are presented, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - **Soybean planting and harvesting progress**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26), the US (2024), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26) are provided, showing the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [33][34][35][38][41]. 3.5 Position Data - No specific content for position data provided 3.6 Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [44]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and also increased year - on - year [46]. - The soybean inventory in oil mills continued to decline, while the soybean meal inventory remained high [49]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills dropped to a low level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year [51]. - The unfulfilled contracts in oil mills fluctuated slightly, and the short - term stocking demand weakened [53]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward following the US soybean market, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [55]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, while the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [57]. - The pig price decreased slightly recently, and the piglet price fluctuated slightly [59]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [61]. - The domestic pig - raising profit deficit widened [63]. - The pig - to - grain ratio and feed - to - meat ratio dropped to a low level [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, especially the Iran - US conflict, are the major factors affecting the global financial and commodity markets, increasing market uncertainty and volatility [8][13][15] - Different industries and commodities show various trends and investment opportunities under the influence of geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The report on China's potential purchase of supersonic missiles from Iran is untrue, and there is no information on Trump's possible visit to China in March [8] - Trump announced large - scale military actions against Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks, and Iran refuses to negotiate with the US [8] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may cause a 130% increase in European natural gas prices and an $18 per - barrel increase in oil prices [8] - Over $175 billion in tariffs ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court will enter the refund process [9] - In 2025, science - innovation board companies are expected to achieve a 10.3% year - on - year increase in operating income and a 28.2% increase in net profit [9] - Due to flight cancellations, the demand for direct flights on the China - Europe route has increased significantly [9] - Industry associations advocate for the stable supply and price of phosphate fertilizers [10] - Mobile phone brands are expected to raise prices in early March due to the increase in storage chip costs [10] - In February 2026, the average transaction price of second - hand housing in Shenzhen increased by 7.3% month - on - month [10] - Rio Tinto suspended negotiations on aluminum supply to Japanese customers [10] - Eurozone money market traders have almost ruled out the possibility of an ECB interest rate cut in 2026 [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a short - term risk - defense strategy. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may outperform large - cap stocks. Geopolitical tensions have reduced risk appetite and may suppress the performance of the equity market [13] Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks may lower risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline. The market's digestion of geopolitical risks is acceptable, but continuous observation is recommended [15] Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. The current order - receiving situation of steel products is fair, but some steel mills face pressure. High post - holiday steel inventories, especially for coils, may suppress steel prices. Steel is expected to fluctuate, and the strategy of selling wide - straddle options can be adopted [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly in the short term. After the holiday, the supply side will recover quickly, while the demand side will recover slowly, and the supply - demand pattern will become looser [19][21] Ferroalloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. Silicon iron is in a tight - balance pattern before large - scale复产 in Qinghai, and it is recommended to partially exit long positions on sharp rises. For manganese silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [22] Soda Ash and Glass - Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new capacity达产 progress. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and demand recovery [23] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Copper - In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate widely. Geopolitical tensions have pushed up避险 sentiment, and high inventories may suppress prices in the short term. In the long term, the tight supply pattern of global copper mines supports copper prices [25] Lithium Carbonate - Although there may be inventory accumulation in March, supply - side disturbances support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips during price corrections [25] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will continue to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. Polysilicon has prominent weak - reality contradictions and will fluctuate weakly [28] Agricultural Products Cotton - Domestically, focus on the demand expectations after the holiday and the impact of external conflicts. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate upward. Pay attention to geopolitical impacts on the crude oil market and the uncertainty of US tariffs [31] Sugar - There is short - term supply pressure, but replenishment demand and external market rebounds support prices. The global sugar surplus has been adjusted downward, and domestic sugar prices are expected to rebound at a low level [32][33] Eggs - In March, the spot price of eggs may rise, but the increase is limited. The second - quarter futures contracts are supported by the expected rise in spot prices but face upward pressure. The far - month contracts are suppressed by the good breeding replenishment data [35] Apples - High - quality apple products may continue to strengthen, and the futures market may also show a strong trend. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of low - quality apples may weaken [37] Corn - Be cautious about chasing high prices to prevent a sharp decline. A 5 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be considered. Corn has short - term supply pressure, but low inventory supports prices [38][39] Red Dates - Currently, red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. After the Spring Festival, the market will enter the off - season. Pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales area and the mentality of purchasers [40] Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the spot price is likely to be weak. Do not short the near - month futures contracts blindly. Pay attention to the entry of secondary fattening and frozen product storage [41] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors are the main trading theme in the short term. The conflict between the US and Iran has a significant impact on crude oil supply. Although the premium is high, the increase in oil prices is limited if there is no extreme conflict [43] Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focuses on the impact of geopolitically - driven oil prices. Geopolitical factors are currently beneficial to fuel oil. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil may decrease, and the inventory is slightly decreasing [45] Plastics - Due to the unstable situation in the Middle East, the prices of raw materials such as crude oil may be slightly stronger, providing some support for polyolefin prices. Be cautious of rebound risks and adopt a bullish view [46] Rubber - In March, downstream export orders are good, and the short - term operating rate is expected to increase. The cost side provides support, but be cautious about chasing high prices. Pay attention to narrowing the RU - NR and RU - BR spreads [47] Synthetic Rubber - Maintain a bullish view on buying on dips, but be cautious of the rapid decline in energy prices and high inventories. Consider the arbitrage strategy of shorting natural rubber and going long on synthetic rubber [48] Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has slightly improved. Geopolitical disturbances around Iran are the main influencing factors, and it is recommended to adopt a bullish - on - fluctuations view [49][50] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The start - up of chlor - alkali enterprises is recovering, and the price is relatively stable but lacks the momentum to continue rising. Pay attention to the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali and enterprise maintenance [51] Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow oil prices, with an estimated smaller increase than crude oil. In March, focus on the replenishment demand after winter storage. The supply - demand of asphalt is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [52] PVC - PVC may fluctuate strongly in the short term. The increase in crude oil prices will raise the cost of ethylene - based PVC. The long - term supply - demand pattern has not improved, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - fluctuation view [53][54] Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the trend is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment, and it will continue to be strong. In the long term, pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand [55] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Iran is an important LPG supplier to China. The future supply of LPG is abundant, and the price is difficult to maintain at a high level. The short - term geopolitical situation increases volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see [56] Pulp - The pulp market has a lot of long - short games due to the contradiction between weak reality and macro conflicts. Pay attention to port inventory and the implementation of product price increases. Consider buying on dips if the market improves [57] Logs - The forward spot price of logs is difficult to decline due to cost support, and the post - holiday inventory data is good. Pay attention to the adjustment of delivery rules and the impact of the Iran - US conflict on the market [57] Urea - The urea futures market is highly emotional. It is recommended to short on price increases. The spot price of urea has risen, but the futures price has fallen, and the overall transaction is weak [57][58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with an intraday view of being on the stronger side and a medium - term view of being in a sideways movement. The overall reference view is range - bound [1][5] - Geopolitical risks are short - term disturbances, and the stock market will ultimately return to its own fundamentals. Policy support expectations and the trend of capital inflows are the main long - term and medium - term logics for the stock index [5] - As the stock index approaches its previous high, if the actual policy implementation fails to exceed market expectations, the willingness of funds to take profits will increase, restricting the upward space of the stock index [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, the intraday view is on the stronger side, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is waiting for the implementation of policy support expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is sideways, and the reference view is range - bound [5] - Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and consolidated. The sudden outbreak of the US - Iran conflict over the weekend led to a rapid increase in geopolitical risks, affecting the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks in sectors such as oil and gas, shipping, military, and gold rose significantly, and the stock market turnover exceeded 3 trillion, showing a volume - increasing consolidation [5] - The impact of geopolitical risks is mainly short - term. Policy support expectations and capital inflows are the main medium - and long - term logics. The Two Sessions will be held this week, with strong policy support for stabilizing the macro - demand expectation and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, which is beneficial for improving the profit margin of listed companies [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of shock consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. Due to the sudden outbreak of the US - Iran conflict last weekend, the risk - aversion sentiment rose rapidly, increasing the investment demand for national debt and driving up prices. However, geopolitical risks are only short - term disturbing factors. The price trend of national debt futures will return to its own fundamentals. In the short term, the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the upward driving force of national debt futures is insufficient. In the long - term, there is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment is generally loose, and the expectation of an interest rate cut still exists, so national debt futures have strong support. Overall, national debt futures will maintain shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is bullish, and the view is shock consolidation. The core logic is the low possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The driving factors include the US - Iran conflict increasing risk - aversion and investment demand for national debt, while geopolitical risks are short - term. The short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to the low possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut, and in the long - term, there is support from the expectation of an interest rate cut [5].