Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates [4] - The basis is -115 with a spot price of 14,550, indicating a bearish signal [4] - The inventory shows a mixed picture, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increasing week - on - week and year - on - year, overall neutral [4] - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided in the given text 2. Fundamental Data - Supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level [4] - The 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) spot price rose on July 17 [8] - Import volume has a seasonal decline [20] - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - Tire production is at a new high for the same period [29] - Tire industry exports are seasonally growing [32] 3. Base Difference - The spot price is 14,550, and the basis is - 115, showing a bearish situation [4] - The basis narrowed on July 17 [35] 4. Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has not changed much recently [14] - The Qingdao area inventory has not changed much recently [17] 5. Long - Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, strong raw material prices, and resilient spot prices [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and a bearish external environment [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "moderately bullish" sentiment within the [-2, 2] integer range [3] Core View of the Report - In the short term, synthetic rubber follows the rubber sector and shows a moderately strong performance. However, the fundamental pressure within the synthetic rubber industry chain remains relatively high, and supply - side pressure restricts the upward movement of prices. As a result, the NR - BR price spread continues to widen [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber (BR) main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price increased from 11,525 yuan/ton to 11,570 yuan/ton, the trading volume rose from 57,449 lots to 69,387 lots, the open interest decreased from 20,703 lots to 18,411 lots, and the trading volume value increased from 329,497 ten - thousand yuan to 399,737 ten - thousand yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract decreased from 75 to 30, the monthly spread (BR08 - BR09) decreased from 75 to 25. The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) all increased, with increases of 100 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (deliverable product) remained unchanged at 11,600 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan/ton and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 65.2894%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber increased from 12,079 yuan/ton to 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased from - 379 yuan/ton to - 482 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - **Valuation Range**: The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term improvement in butadiene trading, the dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton on the futures market. When the main BR2508 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (with a monthly holding cost of around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity of holding spot and shorting the futures, which will gradually increase the upward pressure on the futures market. The lower valuation limit is expected to be supported by butadiene costs, with a theoretical bottom - end valuation of around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3] - **Market Situation**: Natural rubber in Thailand has seen stable raw material prices and a slight rebound in cup lump prices. There are many weather - related speculations, and under a relatively positive macro - sentiment, market speculation is strong [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2509 and synthetic rubber futures 2509 are expected to run strongly on July 19, 2025, with Shanghai rubber showing a short - term upward trend and a mid - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend, while synthetic rubber shows a short - term and intraday strong - oscillating trend and a mid - term oscillating trend [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: The supply side of the rubber market is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [5]. - **Driving Factors**: After the previous negative expectations were digested, the meteorological forecast of a typhoon hitting Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula on July 21, 2025, increased the expectation of production reduction, boosting the rubber price. On the night of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed up 2.16% to 14,885 yuan/ton [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the production and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, with the growth rate of tire production and sales slowing down, and the terminal demand entering the off - season [7]. - **Driving Factors**: After the rubber price correction digested the negative factors, supported by the strength of Shanghai rubber and a bullish atmosphere, on the night of July 18, 2025, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the futures price closing up 1.52% to 11,655 yuan/ton [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that on July 19, 2025, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain a strong - oscillating trend [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a significant unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. It will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene ethylene, in the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [15][17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend [19]. - For polypropylene, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [22]. - For PTA, under the situation of expected continuous inventory accumulation and weakening demand, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, although the fundamentals are weak, it is expected to be strong in the short term due to unexpected events [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $0.98, or 1.47%, to $67.62; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $0.94, or 1.37%, to $69.65; INE main crude oil futures fell by 0.60 yuan, or 0.12%, to 516.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.23 million barrels to 12.23 million barrels, a 1.92% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 9.06 million barrels, a 7.00% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.32 million barrels to 23.39 million barrels, a 5.35% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.78 million barrels to 44.68 million barrels, a 3.82% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 8 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 17 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate continued to decline, and the profit slightly decreased but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas device start - up returned to the mid - high level, and the market reaction to overseas supply disruptions was over, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load rebounded this week, but the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the start - up rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid falling and those of chlorides and MTBE rising, showing overall weakness [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 17, the 09 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1743 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic start - up rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The start - up rate of compound fertilizers bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent start - up rate will continue to rise, supporting the demand for urea. Export containerization continued, and port inventory continued to increase [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously, showing strong momentum. The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 6, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons, or 0.02%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 791,000 tons, a 0.25% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 502,000 tons, a 0.45% decrease. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 507,500 (+23,000) tons [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The rubber price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, build positions at appropriate times, and adopt a neutral - to - bullish or neutral strategy for short - term trading, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4955 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 118 (- 3) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a 0.5% decrease; the start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a 1.6% decrease; the start - up rate of the ethylene method was 71%, a 2.5% increase. The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.1%, a 1.8% decrease. Factory inventory was 382,000 tons (- 5,000), and social inventory was 624,000 tons (+32,000) [12]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is currently at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [15]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The start - up rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, and the start - up rate of benzene ethylene continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene ethylene increased significantly, and the overall start - up rate of the three S products in the demand side decreased due to the off - season [15][17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The global trade policy uncertainty has returned due to the US tariff policy. The spot price of polyethylene fell, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The upstream start - up rate was 78.84%, a 0.01% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 529,300 tons, a 36,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 57,700 tons, a 2,900 - ton decrease. The average downstream start - up rate was 38%, a 0.13% increase [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The profit of Shandong local refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal supply of propylene returning [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The downstream start - up rate fluctuated seasonally downward. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 26 yuan to 6742 yuan, and the PX CFR fell by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was 119 yuan (- 41), and the 9 - 1 spread was 134 yuan (+36) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The load in China was 81.3%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 73.6%, a 0.5% decrease. Some devices had load adjustments. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 117,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 22,000 tons. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 165,000 tons [22]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 8 yuan to 4714 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 10 yuan to 4730 yuan. The basis was 24 yuan (+13), and the 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (+16) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged from the previous period. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The terminal texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [23]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 21 yuan to 4372 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 37 yuan to 4437 yuan. The basis was 62 yuan (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 17 yuan (+15) [24]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.5%, a 0.3% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 45,000 tons, and the port inventory was 553,000 tons, a 27,000 - ton decrease [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent resistance in raw material butadiene price support has weakened the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber. With the restart of most cis - butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - to - late July, supply is expected to increase. This week, under the boost of macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price rose significantly, leading to a decrease in the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises and a slight increase in trader inventory. After some devices restart next week, domestic supply is expected to increase, while downstream price - pressing procurement and wait - and - see sentiment may drive up production enterprise inventory. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, pulling up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire enterprises slightly dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. This week, the production of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for a restorative increase in capacity utilization, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. - The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 18,411, down 2,292. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 25 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of synthetic rubber was 30 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. - Brent crude oil was 68.52 US dollars/barrel, down 0.19 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 66.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.14 US dollars/barrel. - Naphtha CFR Japan was 581.38 US dollars/ton, down 2.37 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,060 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5,523,000 pieces, up 108,000 pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, 2025 (Week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, down 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises, while the maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the rubber market is facing challenges due to cost pressures, weak demand, and intense price competition among manufacturers [2] - Thailand's meteorological department has warned of potential heavy rainfall and flooding from July 20-22, which could impact rubber production [2] - Upcoming policy changes in Malaysia, including mandatory pension contributions for foreign workers and expanded latex import sales tax, are expected to further increase production costs [2] Group 2 - According to recent data, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports for the first half of 2025 reached 751,672 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared to 672,585 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - Cambodia's latex exports for the first half of 2025 decreased by 20% to 112,595 tons, down from 140,653 tons in the same period last year [2] - Domestic rubber production in China is being disrupted by rainfall, limiting the pace of raw material output, while Southeast Asia's new rubber release remains slow [3] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a supply increase and demand decrease, leading to a potential rebound in rubber prices, although the fundamental logic suggests prices may fluctuate downwards [3] - Downstream product demand is currently in a low season, with new orders falling short of last year's levels, resulting in high finished product inventories that pressure some companies' operations [3] - Technical analysis suggests that rubber prices are likely to maintain a strong fluctuation trend in the near term, with recommendations for a bullish trading strategy [3]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.1% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.12 yuan per kilogram, rising by 0.7%, with tomatoes, lettuce, and loofah increasing by 10.7%, 5.6%, and 5.3% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with silver carp, common carp, and crucian carp rising by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - The wholesale price of pork was 20.84 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.8%, while beef also rose by 0.8%, and lamb decreased by 0.3% [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable with slight declines in rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and rice by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight declines, with eggs and white-feathered chickens decreasing by 1.5% and 0.4% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly decreased, with bananas, grapes, and citrus fruits falling by 2.8%, 2.0%, and 0.8% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals slightly decreased, with copper, aluminum, and zinc falling by 2.1%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly declined, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with soda ash, methanol, and polypropylene decreasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, while sulfur increased by 0.2% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea unchanged from the previous week and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.1% [2] - Rubber prices experienced slight fluctuations, with natural rubber increasing by 0.5% and synthetic rubber decreasing by 0.3% [2] - Coal prices generally increased, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 930 yuan and 753 yuan per ton, rising by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, while second-grade smokeless block coal decreased by 0.1% at 1130 yuan per ton [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with high-speed wire, hot-rolled strip steel, and rebar priced at 3569 yuan, 3519 yuan, and 3382 yuan per ton, rising by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report dated July 17, 2025, covering various energy and chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc [2][3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report presents the volume and open interest PCR data of various options, along with their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the market [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various options are analyzed based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Options Energy Options Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: OPEC+ increased oil supply in July, and US shale oil production recovered. The short - term market is weak [8] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, pressure level is 500, and support level is 510 [8] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] LPG - Fundamental analysis: Global supply divergence decreases, demand from the blending market is uncertain, and PDH profit has recovered [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power, pressure level is 5100, and support level is 4000 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol Options Methanol - Fundamental analysis: Domestic methanol production is expected to increase after maintenance, and port inventory is accumulating [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market, pressure level is 2950, and support level is 2200 [10] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking process will slow down [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, pressure level is 4350, and support level is 4300 [11] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a volatility - selling strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin Options Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: PP trade inventory is accumulating, and port inventory is decreasing [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR indicates a weak market, pressure level is 7500, and support level is 6800 [11] - Strategy recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The price of natural rubber has rebounded, but downstream demand is weak [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is below 0.6, pressure level is 15000, and support level is 13000 [12] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [12] Polyester Options PTA - Fundamental analysis: PTA production load has increased, and the maintenance season is over [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 5000, and support level is 3800 [13] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility [13] Alkali Chemical Options Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has slightly decreased [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open interest PCR is around 0.8, pressure level is 3400, and support level is 2200 [14] - Strategy recommendations: Use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: Domestic soda ash inventory has accumulated, and enterprise shipments have slowed down [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, open interest PCR is below 0.5, pressure level is 2080, and support level is 1100 [14] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a bearish spread strategy for direction, a bearish call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Urea Options - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand gap has decreased, and the market has strengthened after a short - term decline [15] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the historical mean, open interest PCR is below 0.8, pressure level is 1900, and support level is 1700 [15] - Strategy recommendations: Construct a neutral call + put option selling strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic concentrated latex import profit and the resumption of raw material output after the end of rain are expected to increase the output of domestic full - latex, but the demand for downstream products is weak, so the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. The import pressure in China is expected to ease in July, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term. The supply of butadiene in China has decreased slightly, and port inventory has continued to decline. The restart of downstream maintenance devices is beneficial to butadiene demand. Under the loss pattern of butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive butadiene rubber to continue to rebound. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week, and tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material and run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,490 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,765 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,695 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1% [2] - In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 751,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. The export volume in June increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 50 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 200 yuan/ton (- 15), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,784 yuan/ton (+ 61.45), the NR basis was 134.00 yuan/ton (+ 2.00); the price of full - latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,300 yuan/ton (+ 120), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged); the price of STR20 was 1,765 US dollars/ton (+ 15), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (+ 120) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.65 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.36), the price of Thai latex was 54.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.35 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.15), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.95 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (- 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (+ 1.66%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+ 4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+ 7,258) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 75 yuan/ton (+ 10), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,300 yuan/ton (- 80), the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,067 yuan/ton (- 50) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.54% (- 1.44%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the European Union's acceptance of a "minimum price commitment" on China's tire exports and the implications for rubber prices, suggesting a possible upward trend in rubber prices due to increased demand from China [1] Group 1 - The acceptance of a "minimum price commitment" by the EU could lead to a significant increase in China's tire exports [1] - There is speculation on whether this surge in tire exports could result in rubber being bought out entirely [1] - The article raises the question of whether rubber prices have entered an upward cycle [1]