1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

Report Title - "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 04 - 28: Production Cut Expectations Released, Black Market Oscillates Strongly" [1] Report Main Viewpoints Steel - Price: Spot prices stopped falling and rebounded, while the futures market oscillated strongly [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production resumed beyond expectations, and electric furnace production increased slightly [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials inventory slowed down, and plate inventory followed the same trend [7] - Demand: The month - on - month growth rate of building materials demand slowed down, and plate demand was stronger domestically than internationally [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits expanded, while electric furnace losses widened [7] - Basis: The basis widened slightly, and it was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads [7] - Summary: Trade conflicts were still stalemated but overall cooled down. Domestic policies were neutral. The industry saw an acceleration in blast furnace resumption and an increase in overall supply. Demand growth slowed down, and inventory de - stocking speed decreased. The market was expected to oscillate. Strategies included reducing short positions before the holiday and looking for short - selling opportunities after the holiday [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded weakly [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and arrivals decreased significantly [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand was released beyond expectations [7] - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly, and downstream inventory changed little [7] - Shipping: Shipping prices both increased [7] - Spread: The futures spread was flat, and the variety spread changed little [7] - Summary: There were rumors of significant crude steel production cuts in China. Supply tightened, demand increased, and port inventory rebounded. The market rebounded weakly due to production cut expectations. A long - term bearish view was maintained, with short positions reduced before the holiday and caution against policy impacts [7] Steel Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar futures rebounded weakly, with the main contract rising 0.81% to close at 3101. Spot prices oscillated upwards, with East China rebar at 3190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/week. Market sentiment improved, and spot trading volume increased [14] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77 percentage points week - on - week and 4.60 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week - on - week [17] - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased significantly. Rebar short - process production decreased due to profit issues. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 74.93%, down 0.14 percentage points week - on - week and up 9.51 percentage points year - on - year. Capacity utilization was 56.66%, up 0.33 percentage points week - on - week and 6.17 percentage points year - on - year [22][25] - Rebar production decreased slightly by 0.11 tons last week, mainly due to production conversion and maintenance in some provinces. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.1 tons to 317.5 tons, mainly in the north due to the resumption of previously shut - down mills [29] Demand - From April 16th to April 22nd, the national cement delivery volume was 352.05 tons, up 4.85% week - on - week and down 22.28% year - on - year. Infrastructure cement direct supply was 188 tons, up 2.73% week - on - week and down 1.05% year - on - year. Terminal demand growth slowed down due to the drag of the real estate sector, while speculative demand increased due to production cut rumors [32] - In March, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 7.7% year - on - year. The downstream capacity utilization of hot - rolled coils decreased due to export tariffs, and market orders were affected [35] Profit - The blast furnace profit rate of steel mills was 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and 6.93 percentage points year - on - year. The average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace building materials steel mills was 3349 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton week - on - week. The average profit was a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 25 yuan/ton [40] Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 40.9 tons week - on - week, with a decrease rate of 4.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 6.67 tons, and social inventory decreased in East, South, and North China. It was expected to continue de - stocking in May and start accumulating in June [43] - Hot - rolled coil factory inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased in the South and East but increased in the North. The total inventory de - stocking speed slowed down due to increased supply and decreased terminal orders [46] Basis - The rebar 10 - contract basis was 99, 45 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on long - short spreads around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [53] Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 36, 1 more inverted than last week. The near - month building materials production peaked, and terminal demand growth slowed down. It was not recommended to intervene in the spread trading [56] Inter - variety Spread - The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 103 on the futures market, 2 narrower than last week, and 70 in the spot market, 10 narrower than last week. It was at a neutral level, and no trading was recommended [59] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded from a low and then slightly corrected. The main contract rose 1.43% to close at 709. Spot prices also increased, with Qingdao Port PB fines rising 5 yuan to 761 yuan/ton. Steel mills' restocking demand increased, and trading volume expanded [64] Supply - From April 14th to April 20th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2437.7 tons, up 2.9 tons week - on - week. Australian shipments were 1799.2 tons, up 92.9 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1574.3 tons, up 98.0 tons. Brazilian shipments were 638.6 tons, down 89.9 tons. The global total shipments were 2925.5 tons, up 17.8 tons week - on - week [67] - The 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 2449.2 tons, down 168.7 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrivals in April were 2475 tons, up 2.6 tons from March and 35 tons from last April [73] Rigid Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 244.35 tons/day, up 4.23 tons/day week - on - week, 19.2 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and 15.6 tons/day year - on - year. Demand was expected to remain high next week [76] Speculative Demand - Due to the easing of trade conflicts and the approaching May Day holiday, some traders and steel mills increased their restocking demand. The port iron ore spot trading volume continued to improve [79] Port Inventory - Last week, port inventory increased due to decreased port clearance. The 47 - port iron ore inventory was 14781 tons, up 231 tons week - on - week, 829.44 tons less than the beginning of the year, and 663.11 tons less than the same period last year. It was expected to slightly decrease next week [82] Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 new - standard steel mills was 2771.39 tons, down 28.91 tons from the previous period. The total imported ore powder inventory increased by about 20 tons, and the overall change was not significant [85] Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.7 dollars/ton, up 0.66 dollars/ton, and from Brazil to China was 19.4 dollars/ton, up 0.57 dollars/ton [88] Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 26, the same as last week, at a neutral - low level. The 09 contract discount was 76, a relatively high level, narrowing 2 last week. The variety spread trading had no clear direction [90][93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Politburo meeting, the market gradually returns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The five major steel products are continuously destocking. The increase in production is mainly concentrated in hot - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with both weekly production and demand decreasing, and destocking slightly slowing down, but the overall inventory is low, and there is a shortage of specifications in the market, resulting in a strong willingness to support spot prices. Hot - rolled coils have both increasing production and demand, with short - term demand having certain resilience, and the export pressure has not fully emerged, but attention should be paid to the weakening of export orders from May to June. Recently, there has been an obvious increase in billet export feedback, which helps to relieve the pressure of overall steel supply. At the same time, there are rumors of steel mills controlling production and reducing volume, which need to be continuously monitored. Before the holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [3]. - For iron ore, the supply of iron ore has increased, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. The supply - demand is loose, and the price still faces pressure. The short - term price tends to fluctuate in a low - level range. Before the May Day holiday, due to the background of margin increase, the willingness of funds to leave the market is enhanced, and there are great uncertainties in the overseas market during the holiday, so it is recommended to hold a light position [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal is stable, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a relatively high level. There is certain restocking support in the market before the holiday, and the port coking coal continues to destock, but the absolute quantity is still at a historical high level in the same period, and the medium - and long - term loose pattern remains unchanged. The profit of coking enterprises has been repaired, and the game of the second round of coke price increase has intensified, and whether it can be implemented before the holiday remains to be seen. The increase in hot metal provides certain support for the raw material end, but considering the limited subsequent increase and the enhanced willingness of funds to leave the market before the holiday, the price still shows pressure, and the overall situation shows a low - level shock, so it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The macro - environment has warmed up, and steel prices have rebounded from the low level. The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have both shown a low - level rebound trend, and the basis has widened. The inventory of the industry continues to be destocked, but the destocking of rebar and hot - rolled coils has slowed down to varying degrees. Due to the relatively low absolute inventory of rebar and the shortage of specifications in the market, the willingness to support prices is strong. The export pressure of hot - rolled coils has not fully emerged [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly production is 229.11 tons (down 0.05% month - on - month, up 3.18% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly production is 317.5 tons (up 0.99% month - on - month, up 0.60% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production increased slightly, and electric furnace production decreased [16][18][23]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is +98 yuan/ton (up 34.25% week - on - week, down 36.36% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is +29 yuan/ton (up 31.82% week - on - week, down 79.72% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 259.94 tons (down 5.07% month - on - month, down 2.31% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions is 12.13 tons (up 9.10% month - on - month, down 19.14% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 324.36 tons (up 0.06% month - on - month, up 0.28% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 702.33 tons (down 4.21% month - on - month, down 25.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 367.69 tons (down 1.83% month - on - month, down 10.32% year - on - year) [42][47]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 12.14% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year; the transaction land area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.26% week - on - week and decreased by 30.78% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2% respectively. The cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2% respectively [51][54]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 27.584 million tons (up 13.16% month - on - month, up 6.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 25.128 million tons (up 8.06% month - on - month, up 27.06% year - on - year) [62]. - **Demand**: Hot metal daily output is 2.4435 million tons (up 423,000 tons month - on - month, up 683,000 tons year - on - year), and the port ore handling volume at 45 ports of iron ore is 3.2792 million tons (up 5.95% month - on - month, up 1.16% year - on - year) [67]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports of iron ore is 142.61 million tons (up 1.46% month - on - month, down 3.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 90.7303 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year) [73]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operation rate of coking coal mines is 88.38% (up 0.78% month - on - month, up 3.37% year - on - year), and the operation rate of coal washing plants is 63.01% (up 1.79% month - on - month, down 6.15% year - on - year). The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 138,100 tons (down 2.48% month - on - month, up 63.94% year - on - year) [79]. - **Demand**: The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions is 75.36% (down 5.86% week - on - week, down 18.65% year - on - year) [82]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is - 9 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month, up 117 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants is 75.27% (up 2.53% month - on - month, up 15.23% year - on - year) [88]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants is 8.2006 million tons (down 1.21% month - on - month, up 26.74% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at the port is 3.2479 million tons (down 3.73% month - on - month, up 47.29% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants is 688,200 tons (up 1.27% month - on - month, up 35.74% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at the port is 2.4358 million tons (down 1.02% month - on - month, up 15.83% year - on - year) [94][100]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1,300 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1,200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 600 yuan/ton year - on - year) [106]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils has slightly widened, and the spread between rebar 05 - 10 contracts has shown a narrow - range fluctuation. The spread between iron ore 05 - 09 contracts has narrowed, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has slightly widened [108][113].

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

Group 1 - As of April 25, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported 1347.84 points, a decrease of 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index was at 1122.40 points, reflecting a 1% increase [1] - In the Xingtai market, plans to raise coke prices have been announced, with wet quenching coke up by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke up by 55 yuan/ton, effective from April 27 [1] - Vale's CFO indicated that iron ore prices are expected to stabilize around $100 per ton, but it is too early to assess the impact of trade wars on iron ore prices [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from April 1-25 reached 923,893 tons, a 14.75% increase compared to 805,130 tons in the same period last month; SGS estimates the export volume at 703,169 tons, a 3.6% increase from 678,698 tons [2] - As of April 24, methanol inventory at East China ports was 22.92 million tons, down from 29.90 million tons on April 17, a decrease of 6.98 million tons [2] - A company responded to inquiries regarding its low-cost soda ash production, stating there are no planned maintenance schedules for the Alashan natural soda project and that it has not received notifications about any price increase meetings [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: This week, the iron ore futures market oscillated. By Friday's close, the main iron ore futures contract closed at 699 yuan/ton, a 1.27% decline from last week. The spot market fluctuated with the futures. The 62% Platts Index dropped to $98.95/ton, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 761 yuan/ton [4] - **Supply**: The latest Mysteel data shows that the global iron ore shipment volume this period was 2.9255 million tons, a 17,800 - ton increase from the previous period. Australia's shipment volume increased significantly, while Brazil's decreased. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.3253 million tons, a 200,200 - ton decrease [4] - **Demand**: Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills found that the blast furnace operating rate was 84.33%, a 0.77% increase from the previous period and a 4.60% increase year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a 1.45% increase from the previous period and a 6.07% increase year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a 2.6% increase from the previous period and a 6.93% increase year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 244,350 tons, a 4,230 - ton increase from the previous period and a 15,630 - ton increase year - on - year [4] - **Inventory**: Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 14.261 million tons, a 205,000 - ton increase from the previous period, indicating a trend of inventory accumulation. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 327,920 tons, an 18,410 - ton increase [5] - **Overall Situation**: Macroeconomically, the US's repeated statements on tariffs on China this week have disrupted market trading sentiment, amplifying iron ore price fluctuations. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly rebounded, with recent shipments fluctuating within a narrow range, and domestic ore production decreasing month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. In terms of demand, the output of the five major steel products has increased, continuing the de - stocking trend. Steel mill profitability has rebounded, and hot metal output has reached a new high for the year, with relatively strong iron ore demand. In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory has increased. Overall, the room for hot metal production increase is limited, and there are no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions in the iron ore market. The expected impact of tariffs on steel exports remains, and there are certain changes in the domestic crude steel supply side. Continuously monitor the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain, as well as tariff changes and downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][5] 3. Strategy Summary - Macroeconomically, the US's repeated statements on tariffs on China this week have disrupted market trading sentiment, amplifying iron ore price fluctuations. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume has slightly rebounded, with recent shipments fluctuating within a narrow range, and domestic ore production decreasing month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. In terms of demand, the output of the five major steel products has increased, continuing the de - stocking trend. Steel mill profitability has rebounded, and hot metal output has reached a new high for the year, with relatively strong iron ore demand. In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory has increased. Overall, the room for hot metal production increase is limited, and there are no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions in the iron ore market. The expected impact of tariffs on steel exports remains, and there are certain changes in the domestic crude steel supply side. Continuously monitor the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain, as well as tariff changes and downstream inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. Steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore is rising at a high level. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased again week - on - week, both hitting new highs for the year. With pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, supporting the relatively strong operation of ore prices. However, steel profits are shrinking recently, and steel prices are not performing well, so there are doubts about whether high demand can be maintained. Domestic port arrivals have declined, while overseas miners' shipments are stable. The overseas ore supply is stable, and domestic ore production is weakening. In the short term, the ore supply is weakly stable. With high demand and pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, but the expectation of supply increase remains, and there are concerns about demand reaching a peak. The fundamental expectation is weakening, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 14,261.00, with a week - on - week increase of 205.00, a decrease of 259.40 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 498.11 compared with the same period last year. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9,073.03, with a week - on - week increase of 20.11, a decrease of 37.42 compared with the end of last month, and a decrease of 306.90 compared with the same period last year [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports is 2,325.30, a week - on - week decrease of 200.20, a decrease of 185.30 compared with last month, and a decrease of 63.50 compared with the same period last year. The global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 2,925.50, a week - on - week increase of 17.80, a decrease of 159.20 compared with last month, and a decrease of 84.80 compared with the same period last year. The domestic port arrivals have declined, while overseas miners' shipments are stable. According to the shipping schedule, the domestic port arrival volume is expected to increase steadily, and the overseas ore supply is stable. Domestic ore production is weakening, and the short - term ore supply is weakly stable [1][2] Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 244.35, a week - on - week increase of 4.23, an increase of 7.07 compared with last month, and an increase of 15.63 compared with the same period last year. The average daily consumption of imported ore of 247 steel mills is 301.39, a week - on - week increase of 3.29, an increase of 7.89 compared with last month, and an increase of 21.92 compared with the same period last year. The average weekly value of iron ore transactions at main ports is 107.68, a week - on - week increase of 6.12, a decrease of 0.78 compared with last month, and an increase of 1.34 compared with the same period last year. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased again week - on - week, both hitting new highs for the year. With pre - holiday stockpiling, ore demand is strong, but there are doubts about whether high demand can be maintained due to shrinking steel profits and poor steel prices [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The latest prices and daily/weekly changes of various iron ore varieties are presented, such as Newman powder at 764 with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 6, PB powder at 772 with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 7 [2]. - **Import Profit**: Import profits vary among different varieties, for example, Newman powder has an import profit of -23.19, while Mac powder has an import profit of 1.31 [2]. Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The latest prices, daily/weekly changes, and monthly spreads of different iron ore futures contracts are given. For instance, i2601 is at 698.5 with a daily change of 14.0 and a weekly change of 19.0, and the monthly spread is 29.0 [2]. - **Index Changes**: The prices and changes of some iron ore - related indexes like FE01, FE05, and FE09 are also included. FE01 is at 92.26 with a daily change of -0.58 and a weekly change of 0.02 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...