Group 1 - The gold futures market experienced a significant decline due to concerns over the hawkish policy stance of the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, leading to a strong rise in the US dollar and a sell-off in gold and silver [1][2] - The main gold futures contract in Shanghai reported a price of 1008.60 yuan per gram, reflecting a drop of 15.73%, with a trading range between 1005.40 yuan and 1154.78 yuan [1] - The market is currently characterized by high volatility driven by policy uncertainty, with future movements expected to be sensitive to the new chairman's statements during confirmation hearings and upcoming inflation data [2] Group 2 - The market's fears of aggressive tightening policies have led to a rapid decline in interest rate cut expectations, which has negatively impacted the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [2] - A significant technical sell-off was triggered when gold prices fell below key psychological levels, exacerbating the downward trend [2] - Geopolitical risks and long-term allocation demand may provide temporary support for precious metals, but the market is expected to remain in a fragile state until a clearer policy path emerges [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the domestic commodity market, triggered by a sharp drop in international precious metals, leading to a rare market crash referred to as "Black Monday" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 2, the domestic futures market opened significantly lower, with panic spreading across various sectors, resulting in 13 commodities, including silver, platinum, palladium, copper, aluminum, and oil, hitting their daily limit down [2][4]. - The international precious metals market experienced extreme volatility, with gold prices dropping by as much as 12% in a single day, marking the largest daily decline in nearly 40 years, while silver saw a maximum drop of 36%, the largest since 1983 [3][4]. Group 2: Causes of the Decline - The recent crash is attributed to multiple factors, including excessive prior gains, concentrated leverage, and a fragile trading structure, which led to a rapid release of pressure when negative news emerged [2][5]. - Analysts noted that the extreme volatility in precious metals prices exceeded what could be explained by fundamental factors, indicating that emotional factors became the dominant force in the market [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - In January, precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold rising from approximately $4,300 to $5,600 per ounce (28% increase), and silver surging from around $70 to over $120 (nearly 70% increase) [5]. - The rapid rise in precious metals prices led to a spillover effect into base metals and related industries, with mining and resource stocks frequently hitting their upper limits in the capital market [5][6]. Group 4: Trading Mechanisms and Responses - The article highlights the role of high-leverage funds and derivative instruments in amplifying both upward and downward market movements, with a significant concentration of leveraged positions contributing to the market's fragility [5][6]. - Exchanges quickly implemented risk control measures in response to the extreme market conditions, including adjustments to margin levels and trading limits for various contracts [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Industry experts emphasize that the recent volatility serves as a warning for capital markets, suggesting that excessive narrative-driven speculation can lead to systemic risks [8]. - The article concludes that while the recent turmoil does not signify the end of long-term trends, the market must undergo a process of deleveraging and normalization in the short term [8][9].

国债期货日报 2026/2/2 行业消息 | | 周一国债现券收益率涨跌不一，7Y以下到期收益率变动幅度在1bp以内，10Y、30Y到期收益 | | --- | --- | | | 率分别变动0.1、-1.1bp左右至1.81%、2.25%。周一国债期货涨跌不一，TS、TF、T主力合约 | | | 分别下跌0.01%、0.02%、0.03%，TL主力合约上涨0.18%。DR007加权利率回落至1.49%附 | | | 近震荡。国内基本面端，我国1月制造业、服务业景气水平双双回落，制造业PMI重回收缩区 | | | 间，但产业结构持续改善，新兴产业PMI均位于荣枯线上。12月全国规上工企业利润同比 | | | 5.3%，全年利润实现正增长，扭转连续三年下行趋势。海外方面，美国总统特朗普正式提名前 | | 观点总结 | 美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，沃什政策主张更侧重通过缩表控制通胀，市场对美联 | | | 储降息预期降温，避险情绪下行。美国联邦政府陷入部分"停摆"状态，新拨款法案仍待表决 | | | 通过。综合来看，美联储主席换任虽引发市场巨震，但对国内债市的直接影响较为有限。权益 | | | 市场波动 ...

Report Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - After continuous rallies in mid - early January, the market's enthusiasm for chasing growth stocks cooled down. With the approaching Spring Festival, profit - taking occurred in the growth sector, and the market shifted towards value stocks. The decline of January's PMI also negatively affected market sentiment. Additionally, the short - term strengthening of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan suppressed the stock index trend. Only about one - third of companies that released 2025 performance pre - announcements had positive news, and most of these companies were in high - tech industries such as artificial intelligence [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Contracts**: All main and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased. For example, the IF main contract (2603) dropped to 4577.4, down 142.2; the IH main contract (2603) dropped to 3004.2, down 71.6; the IC main contract (2603) dropped to 7903.2, down 475.2; the IM main contract (2603) dropped to 7871.8, down 387.6 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads decreased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread dropping to 1578.6, down 63.2; the IC - IF monthly contract spread dropping to 3368.8, down 298.4. Only the IM - IC monthly contract spread increased to - 41.0, up 53.8 [2] - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: All spreads between quarterly and monthly contracts decreased, like the IF quarterly - to - monthly spread dropping to - 42.2, down 32.0 [2] - **Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position dropped to - 44,042.00, down 4366.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - **Index Prices**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index dropped to 4605.98, down 100.4; the Shanghai 50 index dropped to 3,003.1, down 63.4; the CSI 500 index dropped to 8,037.1, down 333.5; the CSI 1000 index dropped to 7,975.4, down 279.4 [2] - **Basis**: The basis of all main contracts decreased, with the IF main contract basis dropping to - 28.6, down 33.2 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume decreased to 26,066.38 billion yuan, down 2557.87 billion yuan; the margin trading balance decreased to 27,152.87 billion yuan, down 240.76 billion yuan; the northbound trading volume decreased to 3908.34 billion yuan, down 63.90 billion yuan [2] - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 14.07%, down 30.71 percentage points; Shibor increased to 1.365%, up 0.037 percentage points; IO at - the - money call option closing price decreased to 87.00, down 62.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility increased to 24.15%, up 4.03 percentage points; IO at - the - money put option closing price increased to 93.00, up 59.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility increased to 24.15%, up 4.46 percentage points; the 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased to 11.76%, up 0.54 percentage points; the trading volume PCR increased to 76.31%, up 12.00 percentage points; the open interest PCR decreased to 61.14%, down 1.69 percentage points [2] 3.4 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares decreased to 2.40, down 1.90; the technical aspect decreased to 1.40, down 3.00; the capital aspect decreased to 3.40, down 0.60 [2] 3.5 Industry News - **Domestic**: A - share main indexes closed down, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.46%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined significantly, and over 4600 stocks fell. Most industry sectors declined, with only the banking and food and beverage sectors rising. The January official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] - **Overseas**: US President Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on inflation, which led to an expectation of a hawkish monetary policy and a stronger US dollar index [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - 2/2 23:00 US January manufacturing PMI; 2/3 23:00 US December JOLTs job openings; 2/4 21:15 US January ADP employment; 2/5 20:00 Bank of England interest rate decision, 21:15 ECB interest rate decision; 2/6 21:30 US January non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, labor participation rate [3]

螺纹钢产业链日报 2026/2/2 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,098.00 | -30↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1784097 | +49987↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -37840 | +29321↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -47 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨 ...

菜籽系产业日报 2026-02-02 供应端压力有望增加，且路透社消息称，中国进口商获得了多达10船加拿大油菜籽船货，预计将在2月至4月间装运，每船约为6.5 万吨。盘面来看，受外围油脂走低拖累，今日菜油大幅走低，市场波动加剧，短线参与为主。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | ...

铁矿石产业链日报 2026/2/2 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 783.00 | -8.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 520,684 | -20544↓ | | 期货市场 | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 17 | -2.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 4542 | +10777↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,100.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 102.65 | -1.14↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 839 | -4↓ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 835 | -4↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 752 | -9↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 52 | +4↑ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 103.2 ...

，装置排产逐步进入收尾状态，将拖拽整体产能利用率下行，短期轮胎企业产能利用率或将有所下滑。ru2 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 605合约短线预计在15700-16700区间波动,nr2604合约短线预计在12750-13300区间波动，短期大宗商品价 免责声明 格受宏观情绪影响较大，建议观望为主。 天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15980 130 | -380 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 12925 -45 | -310 | | 期货市场 | | | | | 0 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3055 | -70 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 155994 | -16624 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 276 ...

跌0.04%，2605合约收跌0.04%，盘中冲高回落，显示价格反弹乏力。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 生猪产业日报 2026-02-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11220 | 0 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 95950 | -5767 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 0 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月02日16时12分 报告导读： 今日贵金属几乎全线跌停，沪金主力收跌15.73%，沪银主力收跌17%，铂金主力收跌16%，钯金主力收涨跌16%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近 尾声，缩表预期重创贵金属。②避险属性方面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹 象。最新特朗普称俄对乌部分地区停火一周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接 替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度，贵金属遭遇史诗级抛售。美国12月PPI创五个月来 最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下 次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢 能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 ...