1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 143,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 176,040 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 23.10%. It is expected that next week, the supply side will continue to increase production, the demand side will decrease, and the cost will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,822 tons, higher than the historical average. Among them, the production from spodumene was 13,484 tons, a 12.14% increase from the previous period and higher than the historical average; the production from lepidolite was 2,812 tons, a 5.06% decrease and lower than the historical average; the production from salt lakes was 3,290 tons, an 8.22% increase and higher than the historical average; the production from recycling was 2,236 tons, a 3.61% increase and higher than the historical average [4]. - **Demand Side**: In January 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate was 124,683 physical tons, a 4.17% decrease from the previous period. The predicted demand for next month is 110,467 physical tons, a 11.40% increase. In January 2026, the export volume of lithium carbonate was 410 physical tons, a 55.04% decrease. The predicted export volume for next month is 208 physical tons, a 49.26% increase. In February 2026, the production of power batteries was 169.01 MWH, a 12.88% decrease but higher than the historical average. The production of ternary batteries was 26.39 MWH, a 16.06% decrease and lower than the historical average. The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 134.03 MWH, a 12.96% decrease but higher than the historical average. In January 2026, the installed capacity of power batteries was 42,000 MWH, a 57.18% decrease but higher than the historical average. The installed capacity of ternary batteries was 9,400 MWH, a 48.35% decrease but higher than the historical average. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 32,700 MWH, a 59.02% decrease but higher than the historical average. In February 2026, the production of energy storage batteries was 56.07 GWH, a 11.02% decrease, and the predicted production for next month is a 16.43% increase. In January 2026, the total winning bid capacity of energy storage batteries was 23.1 GWH, a 46.29% decrease but higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 168,303 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decrease from the previous day, with a production income of 1,457 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 164,301 yuan/ton, a 1.38% decrease from the previous day, with a production income of 1,790 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, and the enthusiasm for production scheduling is average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong motivation for production scheduling [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory of smelters was 18,382 tons, a 8.64% increase from the previous period but lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 40,021 tons, a 10.04% decrease but higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 41,690 tons, a 0.41% increase and higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 100,093 tons, a 2.75% decrease and lower than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: The price, production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore are presented through various charts, and the supply - demand balance table of lithium ore shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from January 2025 to January 2026 [15][18]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from different sources are presented through various charts, and the supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from January 2025 to January 2026 [22][28]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide are presented through various charts, and the supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from January 2025 to January 2026 [31][34]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: The cost, profit, and processing cost composition of various lithium compounds such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycled materials are presented through various charts [37][40][43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory, is presented through various charts [46]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery**: The price, production, installed capacity, and export volume of power batteries are presented through various charts [48]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage**: The inventory, winning bid situation, production, and cost of energy storage batteries are presented through various charts [50]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented through various charts [53][56]. - **Demand - Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, production, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials are presented through various charts [60][62]. - **Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented through various charts [64][67]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, zero - batch ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles are presented through various charts [71][77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend. The chart shows the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages of the LC main contract, and it is expected that next week, the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [80][81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal futures is stronger than that of the domestic spot market but weaker than the external market, and the medium - term trend is oscillatory. The short - term and medium - term trends of domestic palm oil and soybean oil are oscillatory, and the intraday trends are oscillatory weak [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillatory strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory strong [5]. - **Core Logic**: The recent trend of domestic soybean meal shows a clear pattern of strong external and weak domestic markets, driven by the dual game of import cost support and loose domestic supply - demand conditions. The strong domestic demand, export expectations of US soybeans, and favorable EPA biofuel policies have led to a rise in prices. The slowest five - year harvest progress in Brazil has further increased import costs. Domestically, the industrial chain is showing signs of weakness. After the Spring Festival, the oil mill operating rate exceeded 36%, soybean arrivals increased, and the oil mill soybean meal inventory was higher than the historical average. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient physical inventory, and their purchasing mentality is cautious after the festival, leading to a weakening of the spot basis and light trading [5]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Although the short - term soybean meal futures price follows the US soybean futures price and shows an oscillatory strong trend, the real - world pressure of high domestic inventory and weak demand limits the rebound space, and the trend is weaker than the external market. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade consultations and the downstream replenishment rhythm [7]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillatory weak, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory weak [8]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic palm oil market shows a pattern of differentiation from the external market and pressure on the domestic market, and its trend is restricted by both international supply - demand and domestic inventory. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil are both weak, with the production seasonally declining and the export from February 1 - 25 down 12.1% - 16.1% month - on - month. In March, the domestic import cost is significantly inverted, with the duty - paid cost at 9070 yuan/ton, and the inventory pressure is high, with the coastal main port inventory at 74.4 tons, unchanged from the previous week. On the demand side, the post - festival trading has not fully recovered, and the downstream replenishment is cautious [8]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The short - term palm oil futures price has the weakest trend, and the rebound space is limited. Attention should be paid to the repair of the soybean - palm oil price difference and the inventory digestion rhythm [8]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price and Core Logic Summary**: The short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory weak. Its influencing factors include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, but downstream sentiment was cautious with only essential purchases and overall trading was light. Supply increased in January, and inventories at home and abroad continued to build up, indicating sufficient market supply. The nickel ore market had a strong bullish sentiment, with a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and poor trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices rebounded, supporting the cost line and causing a slight upward shift. Stainless steel consumption was poor during the Spring Festival, and inventory increased significantly. If inventory digestion is not effective, it may suppress price rebounds. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The Israel - Iran conflict over the weekend may drive up nickel prices due to increased risk aversion. Overall, the outlook for nickel is bearish, but the price of nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventory continued to rise. The outlook is neutral, and the price of stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On February 27, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 141,560 yuan, up 520 yuan from the previous day; the price of the London nickel electronic contract was 17,695, down 35 from the previous day; the price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,205 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day [9]. - **Spot Prices**: On February 27, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 142,650 yuan, down 1,050 yuan from the previous day; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 146,700 yuan, down 1,100 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 138,650 yuan, down 950 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 141,300 yuan, down 800 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,000 yuan, 15,000 yuan, 15,000 yuan, and 15,050 yuan respectively [9]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: As of February 27, LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, a decrease of 1,530 tons from the previous day; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 53,131 tons, a decrease of 27 tons. The total inventory was 341,107 tons, a decrease of 1,557 tons [12]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of February 27, SHFE nickel inventory was 60,791 tons, with futures inventory of 53,131 tons, an increase of 2,016 tons and 673 tons respectively [11]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Regional Inventory**: On February 27, the inventory in Wuxi was 646,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 377,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,172,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series was 728,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,600 tons [16]. - **Futures Inventory**: On February 27, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 52,055 tons, a decrease of 8,695 tons from the previous day [17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On February 27, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 70.5 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 30 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 7.75 US dollars per ton and 8.75 US dollars per ton respectively [20]. - **Nickel Iron Prices**: On February 27, the price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,077.72 yuan per nickel point, an increase of 4.29 yuan from the previous day; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,725 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day [20]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - On February 27, the traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,909 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,089 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 18,159 yuan [22]. Nickel Import Cost Estimation - The converted import price was 138,800 yuan per ton [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is steadily increasing as state - owned and private coal mines have resumed production. However, downstream coke enterprises' procurement rhythm has not kept up, with weak procurement enthusiasm due to existing inventories. The spot market is sluggish, and prices are under pressure. The overall inventory has decreased, but the price is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: Coke enterprises' average profit per ton has returned to near the break - even point, and most maintain normal production. But due to some steel mills controlling arrivals and speculators leaving the market, the inventory in coke enterprises has increased. With the possible decline of coking coal prices and steel mills' pursuit of cost reduction, the cost support for coke is weakening, and the price is also expected to be weakly stable in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on February 28, 2026, including different varieties and ports, such as the price of Russian K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Jingtang Port is 1320 [9]. Coking Coal Spread No specific information about coking coal spread is provided. Coke Spread No specific information about coke spread is provided. Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 258 million tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons from last week [20]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 893 million tons, a decrease of 225 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 million tons, an increase of 12 million tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 820 million tons, a decrease of 18 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons from last week [29]. Coke Oven Capacity Utilization No specific information about coke oven capacity utilization is provided. Average Profit per Ton of Coke No specific information about average profit per ton of coke is provided. Daily Coke Production No specific information about daily coke production is provided. Monthly Coke Production No specific information about monthly coke production is provided. Blast Furnace Operating Rate No specific information about blast furnace operating rate is provided. Hot Metal Production No specific information about hot metal production is provided.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of oscillation. Due to the geopolitical risks, the methanol futures in China are likely to maintain a strong position on Monday [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Time - based Views - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward trend [1] - **Mid - term**: It is expected to oscillate [1][5] - **Intraday**: It is expected to be strong [1][5] b) Core Logic - Geopolitical risks have led to a rapid increase in the risk in the Middle East. With the US - Israel military attacks on Iran and Iran's announcement to block the Strait of Hormuz, the supply of energy materials like crude oil and methanol is at risk. Iran has a high methanol production capacity of 15 - 16 million tons per year. If the shipping lane is closed or methanol plants are damaged, overseas methanol supply will face shortages. In the short - term, geopolitical factors outweigh the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, and the positive factors are expected to boost the strong performance of domestic methanol futures on Monday [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate within the range of 2800 - 2860. The US soybean market is affected by bio - fuel policies and is waiting for the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and South American harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean trend and spot price premiums, with a short - term range - bound pattern due to mixed news [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to fluctuate between 4620 - 4720. The US soybean market is in a short - term strong oscillation. The domestic soybean market is supported by strong spot prices and short - term demand but is restricted by the China - US trade agreement and post - Spring Festival Brazilian soybean arrivals [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - No information provided in the report 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for South American harvest and further trade negotiation results [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. Oil mill soybean inventories remained high in January. With normal South American soybean weather, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits lead to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal in March is low, suppressing price expectations. The interaction between the US soybean trend and weak demand keeps the market in a range - bound pattern [13]. - High domestic oil mill soybean meal inventories, potential weather speculation in South American soybean areas, and the China - US trade agreement result in short - term range - bound movement of soybean meal, waiting for South American production and further trade negotiation results [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; domestic oil mill soybean meal inventories have no pressure; there are still uncertainties in South American soybean area weather [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in March will remain high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Brazil's soybean bumper harvest and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in domestic soybean production suppresses price expectations [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3020, with a basis of 187, indicating a premium over futures. The oil mill soybean meal inventory is 84.25 million tons, a 0.37% increase from last week and a 68.91% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4560, with a basis of - 148, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill soybean inventory is 519.54 million tons, an 8.83% increase from last week and a 3.62% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides the prices of soybean futures (A2605, B2605), soybean meal futures (M2605, M2609), and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal from February 12 to 27 [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: It shows the changes in warehouse receipts of soybean (A), soybean (B), and soybean meal from February 11 to 27 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report presents the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26), the US (2024), and Brazil (2024/25, 2025/26) [34][35][39][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the planting area, yield, production, and other data of US soybeans in the past six months [44]. - **Other Market Conditions**: US soybean weekly export inspections have decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the arrival volume of imported soybeans has rebounded from a low level and increased year - on - year; oil mill soybean inventories have continued to decline, while soybean meal inventories have remained high; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans has followed the US soybean market down, and the disk profit has fluctuated slightly; the domestic pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, while the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month; pig prices have recently declined slightly, and piglet prices have fluctuated slightly; the proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary pig fattening has fluctuated slightly; domestic pig - farming losses have expanded; the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio have fallen to low levels [45][47][50][56][58]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-03-02 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 利多因素提振，沪胶强势运行 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势运行 | 利多因素提振，合成胶强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：上周末，中东地区爆发美伊军事冲突，地缘风险快速升温，伊朗宣布 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8440, the basis is 214, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8770, the basis is - 10, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [3] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9860, the basis is 680, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is neutral [4] - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Market analysis: By the ratio of imports from Iran to the total imports of the product in China, methanol (MA) has the highest impact at 59.1%, followed by polyethylene (PE) at 8.4%. According to the ratio of Iran's production capacity to overseas production capacity, MA has the highest impact at 24.1%. When considering the "Hormuz Strait" chemical production capacity (including Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, eastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran), MA accounts for 35.4%, ethylene glycol (EG) for 27.3%, and PE for 17%, all having potential impacts. The production capacity ratios of aromatics are relatively small, and the main transmission logic is that the rise in crude oil drives up the cost of the aromatic series. The overall impact of the Iran war situation on chemical products is: methanol > (styrene monomer (EB), pure benzene (BZ), paraxylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA)) > (polypropylene (PP), PE) > EG [3]. - Strategy: Consider cautious long hedging for contracts MA2605, PX2605, TA2605, BZ2604, EB2604, LL2605, PP2605, and EG2605 [3]. Summary by Directory Iran and Surrounding Countries' Production Capacity Ratio in the Hormuz Strait - Background: On February 28, 2026, the US attacked Iran, and Israel and Iran clashed. There were reports of the Hormuz Strait being blocked and then unblocked. On March 1, 2026, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was reported to have been assassinated. The report aims to analyze the impact on chemical products by studying the proportion of Chinese imports from Iran, the proportion of Iran's production capacity in overseas production capacity, and the potential impact if the Hormuz Strait is blocked again [9]. Chinese Mainstream Chemical Imports from Iran - Methanol: China imports about 14.43 million tons of methanol annually, with about 8.53 million tons from Iran, accounting for 59% of total imports, making it the most directly affected product. Currently, it is the critical period for the restart of Iran's winter - shutdown methanol plants [12]. - PE: China imports about 13.41 million tons of PE annually, with about 1.13 million tons from Iran, accounting for 8.4%. Among PE sub - products, the proportions of linear low - density polyethylene (LL), high - density polyethylene (HD), and low - density polyethylene (LD) from Iran in Chinese imports are 2.6%, 10.2%, and 13.8% respectively. Non - standard products HD and LD are more affected [13][14]. - Other products: The proportions of EG, PP, BZ, EB, and PX imported from Iran to total Chinese imports are relatively small, and the direct impact can be ignored [14]. Iran's Chemical Production Capacity in Overseas and Global Capacity - Methanol: Iran is the largest overseas methanol supplier, with an annual production capacity of 17.16 million tons, accounting for 24% of overseas production capacity. Although its global production capacity ratio decreases when including China, the port price mainly linked to imported sources makes methanol the most affected by the Iran war [17]. - PE: Iran's PE production capacity is 5.65 million tons per year, accounting for 5% of overseas production capacity. The impact is mainly on China's logistics, and the impact on overseas total supply is limited. The overseas production capacity ratios of LL, HD, and LD are 2.9%, 6.8%, and 3.9% respectively [17]. - EG: Iran's EG production capacity is 1.8 million tons per year, accounting for 5.8% of overseas production capacity and 2.9% of global production capacity, with a relatively limited impact on global supply [18]. - PP: Iran's PP production capacity is over 1.03 million tons per year, accounting for 5.8% of overseas production capacity and 1.5% of global production capacity, with a smaller impact on overseas PP supply [18]. - Aromatics: Iran's PX, BZ, and EB production capacities have limited influence on the global market. However, due to the high correlation between aromatics and oil products, the impact of the Iran war on aromatics may be mainly through cost - push logic [18]. Mainstream Chemicals' Overseas Production Capacity in the "Hormuz Strait" - Methanol: The combined methanol production capacity of Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and eastern Saudi Arabia is 8.05 million tons per year, mainly from Saudi Arabia's Jubail with 7.05 million tons per year. The "Hormuz Strait" methanol production capacity accounts for up to 35% of overseas capacity, having the greatest impact [23]. - PE: The combined PE production capacity of the above - mentioned countries is 14.05 million tons per year, mainly from Saudi Arabia's Jubail with 8.33 million tons per year. The "Hormuz Strait" PE production capacity accounts for 17% of overseas capacity, also having a significant impact [23]. - EG: The combined EG production capacity of the above - mentioned countries is 6.7 million tons per year, mainly from Saudi Arabia's Jubail with 5.55 million tons per year. The "Hormuz Strait" EG production capacity accounts for 27% of overseas capacity, potentially having a large impact if the Hormuz Strait is blocked [23]. - PP: The combined PP production capacity of the above - mentioned countries is 6.93 million tons per year, mainly from Saudi Arabia's Jubail with 4.53 million tons per year. The "Hormuz Strait" PP production capacity accounts for about 11% of overseas capacity, with a theoretically limited impact. However, due to the tight propane market, Iran may further push up propane prices, providing cost support for PP [24]. - Aromatics: The combined PX, BZ, and EB production capacities of the above - mentioned countries account for about 9.5%, 9.7%, and 11.7% of overseas capacity respectively. Although the numbers seem small, the concentrated maintenance of EB in the US, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain in April may boost China's EB exports if Middle - East EB shipments are affected [25]. Brief Analysis and Strategies for Each Chemical - Methanol: Currently, the port inventory is at a high level, but due to the decline in Iranian shipments in February and the further reduction of arrival plans in March, the port inventory is expected to start de - stocking in March. The resumption progress of downstream MTO devices in March will determine the de - stocking rate. If the resumption of Iranian winter - shutdown plants is delayed, the port will continue to de - stock from April to May. Strategy: Go long on the MA2605 contract and take a positive spread position on the 5 - 9 spread [31][33][34]. - Styrene: After the holiday, the port inventory is slightly lower than the same period. The market expects styrene to enter the de - stocking cycle in March. With many maintenance plans in March and April and concentrated maintenance in the US, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain in April, even a small reduction in Iranian EB production may support China's exports. Strategy: Go long on the EB2604 and BZ2604 contracts [39][45]. - PX and PTA: China's PX will start the maintenance cycle in late March, and the de - stocking cycle is expected to be from late March to May, mainly from April to May. PX and PTA have little production pressure in 2026, and the forward PX processing fee is expected to increase. PTA's social inventory is at a low level, and the processing fee is difficult to weaken. Strategy: Go long on the PX2605, PTA2605, and PTA2609 contracts [53][54]. - PE and PP: After the holiday, the petrochemical inventory has accumulated, and the original expectation was for PE and PP to be weak. However, due to the Iran war, the market may price in the potential reduction of PE supply from the Hormuz Strait. Iran's PP production capacity has a relatively small impact on overseas supply, but propane strength may provide cost support for PP. Strategy: Change the L - PP spread narrowing strategy and the L reverse - spread strategy to a wait - and - see approach. Go long on the LL2605 and PP2605 contracts cautiously [60][62]. - EG: After the holiday, the EG port inventory has reached a historical high. The original expectation was for EG to be weak. However, if the Hormuz Strait is blocked and affects the shipping of EG from Saudi Arabia, it may have a large impact. Strategy: Go long on the EG2605 contract cautiously [67][70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the market oscillated upward during the four trading days after the Spring Festival, and the Wind All - A Index hit a new high in this round of rebound on Friday. The core drivers of the market are multi - dimensional, including the absence of black swan events during the Spring Festival, the expected profit - making effect brought by hot topics such as robots and travel, the anticipation of policy benefits due to the approaching Two Sessions, and certain changes in overseas tariffs [1]. - In March, the index trend will face more uncertainties overall. However, the sudden Middle East conflict may bring certain callback buying opportunities. In terms of uncertainties, the Two Sessions in early March are not expected to bring obvious super - expected positive factors. For the technology theme, it is difficult to resume an upward trend without technological or application innovation. The Fed's new chairman selection, interest rate cuts, and balance - sheet reduction trends are still unknown. The consumption performance during the Spring Festival did not show significant improvement signals, and the economic trend after entering the "Golden March and Silver April" real - economy verification period remains to be observed. In the short term, the tense Middle East geopolitical situation suppresses risk appetite, but the substantial impact is limited except in the oil and gas and transportation sectors. Considering the stable political and economic situation during the Two Sessions in China, there is a callback buying opportunity if the market corrects due to risk - preference disturbances. In general, the market may show a wide - range oscillating trend in March [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market oscillated upward after the Spring Festival. The Wind All - A Index hit a new high in this round of rebound on Friday. Among sectors, steel, environmental protection, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while media, non - bank finance, and commercial retail led the losses [1]. - **Driving Factors**: The core drivers include the absence of black swan events during the Spring Festival, the expected profit - making effect from hot topics like robots and travel, the anticipation of policy benefits due to the approaching Two Sessions, and certain changes in overseas tariffs [1]. - **Future Outlook**: In March, the index trend will face more uncertainties. There may be callback buying opportunities due to the sudden Middle East conflict. The Two Sessions in early March are not expected to bring obvious super - expected positive factors. The technology theme has difficulty in resuming an upward trend without innovation. The Fed's policy and the economic trend after the "Golden March and Silver April" remain to be observed. The short - term impact of the Middle East situation on risk appetite is limited except in some sectors. If the market corrects due to risk - preference disturbances, there is a buying opportunity, and the market may show a wide - range oscillating trend in March [2]. - **Attention Factors**: The formulation and implementation of the Two Sessions and related plans in March, the domestic economy, the Fed's policy direction, and geopolitical situation changes [3]. 3.2 Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, 221 points/294 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Buy on dips. The core operating range of the IF2603 main contract is expected to be between 4596 and 4808 points; the IH2603 main contract between 2969 and 3106 points; the IC2603 main contract between 8300 and 8948 points; and the IM2603 main contract between 8233 and 8873 points [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. 3.3 Market Data Review - **Global Stock Indexes**: Last week, the Dow Jones Index fell 1.31%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.95% in the US stock market. In the European stock market, the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 2.09%, the German DAX Index rose 0.09%, and the French CAC40 Index rose 0.77%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 3.56% and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.82% [8]. - **Domestic Indexes**: Since 2025, the growth rates of major domestic indexes are as follows: the ChiNext Index increased by 54.6%, the CSI 500 by 51.2%, the CSI 1000 by 43.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 39.2%, the Small and Medium - cap Board Index by 38.4%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 24.2%, the CSI 300 by 19.7%, and the SSE 50 by 13.2%. Last week, the CSI 1000 rose 4.34%, the CSI 500 rose 4.32%, the Small and Medium - cap Board Index rose 2.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.80%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98%, the CSI 300 rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.05%, and the SSE 50 rose 0.17% [8]. - **Spot Market**: In the CSI 300 index, the materials, telecommunications, and energy sectors led the gains, while the finance and optional consumption sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500 index, the raw materials, energy, and public utility sectors led the gains [10]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Last week, the IC main contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures rebounded [10][11]. - **Index Valuation**: The TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.97 times, the CSI 300 Index is 14.05 times, the SSE 50 Index is 11.54 times, the CSI 500 Index is 37.81 times, and the CSI 1000 Index is 50.61 times [12][14]. - **Market Capital**: The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are provided. The capital interest rate was flat last week, and the central bank had a net injection [15][16].