（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（9月2日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.85个基点报3.637%，3年期 美债收益率涨3.10个基点报3.608%，5年期美债收益率涨2.77个基点报3.722%，10年期美债收益率涨3.50 个基点报4.260%，30年期美债收益率涨3.70个基点报4.958%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of offshore RMB local government bonds by regions such as Hainan and Guangdong is a strategic move to deepen reform and opening up, promote regional coordinated development, and enhance the internationalization of the RMB [2][4] Group 1: Bond Issuance Plans - Hainan plans to issue up to 5 billion RMB offshore local government bonds in Hong Kong by September 2025, with maturities of 3, 5, and 10 years, including sustainable development, blue, and aerospace-themed bonds [1] - Shenzhen also announced plans to issue up to 5 billion RMB offshore local government bonds in Macau and Hong Kong, with maturities set for 2, 3, 5, and 10 years [1] - Guangdong successfully issued 2.5 billion RMB offshore local government bonds in Macau, marking the fifth consecutive year of such issuances [1] Group 2: Investment Focus and Themes - The funds raised from Hainan's bond issuance will focus on marine protection, livelihood security, and aerospace-related research and infrastructure projects, aligning with the province's sustainable development goals [2][3] - Shenzhen's bonds will target projects related to climate change, clean transportation, and social welfare, including healthcare and education, promoting green and sustainable development [3][4] - The investment areas reflect a focus on emerging industries, ecological protection, and public welfare, which are expected to provide stable income and return mechanisms [4] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The issuance of these bonds not only serves project financing but also embodies a commitment to green development and social responsibility, aligning with international standards and promoting RMB internationalization [4] - The bond issuance practices in Guangdong and Hainan represent an innovative breakthrough in local government financing mechanisms and demonstrate the integration of local characteristics with national strategies [4]

Market Overview - The equity market is cooling down, and the bond market remains pessimistic, with government bond futures experiencing a daily decline, with TL contracts down by 0.3% in the afternoon [1] - The yield on 10-year government bonds is gradually moving away from the 1.79% level, while mid to long-term bonds further declined after the futures market closed [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 255.7 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion yuan due to the maturity of 405.8 billion yuan in reverse repos [2] Regional Financing - Henan Province successfully issued 23.725 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds with a coupon rate of 1.85% and a maturity of 5 years, aimed at repaying part of the principal of previous special bonds [3] - Sichuan Province has issued 18.666 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds across 131 projects, with 93.68% of the funds allocated for acquiring idle land [4] Corporate Bond Issuance - Jiaozuo State-owned Capital Operation Group plans to issue 1 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds, with the project accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [6] - Xinyang Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 482 million yuan in medium-term notes at an interest rate of 3.06% [7] - Xuchang Investment Group intends to issue up to 2 billion yuan in short-term financing bonds and 3 billion USD in overseas bonds for project construction and working capital [8] Debt Market Dynamics - Gansu Water Investment Group has exited the government financing platform, reducing historical debt by 5 billion yuan and transitioning towards an "industrial group" model [11] - Kaisa Group's overseas debt restructuring plan is expected to achieve a debt reduction of approximately 8.6 billion USD, with an average extension of 5 years on the debt term [13] Market Sentiment - The city investment bond market is experiencing a divergence between primary and secondary markets, with a net repayment of 8.4 billion yuan in August, indicating a continued trend of narrow net repayment [16] - Subscription sentiment has generally declined, with the average subscription multiple for city investment bonds recorded at 2.88 times, a decrease from the previous month [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global debt market is experiencing significant turmoil, with rising yields indicating a loss of investor confidence in government bonds, particularly in developed countries like Japan, the UK, and Germany [1][2]. - Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a record high of 3.222% on August 30, while the 10-year yield surpassed 1.627%, marking peaks not seen since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2]. - Overseas investors sold 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) of Japanese bonds in a single month, reflecting a drastic reduction in demand [2]. Group 2: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The article highlights that bonds from developed countries are increasingly interconnected, meaning that issues in one country's bond market can trigger crises in others [3][5]. - The rise in yields across European bonds, such as the UK's 30-year bond reaching 5.64%, indicates a broader trend of declining demand for government debt [2][3]. - The decline in demand for U.S. bonds, despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a growing reluctance among investors to hold these assets [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Economy - The rising yields and lack of buyers for government bonds signal potential crises in the global financial markets, which could lead to a significant economic downturn, potentially worse than the 2008 crisis [6]. - The article warns that even countries with strong macroeconomic controls will be affected by these global trends, as their economies are tied to external demand [6][7]. - The current environment necessitates a careful approach to asset allocation, with a recommendation to invest in recognized safe-haven assets like gold [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market in August has been primarily influenced by the stock market, leading to a "look at stocks to trade bonds" strategy, which has become the only trading rule in the bond market [2][10][9] - In August, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds reached a peak of 1.79% and 2.06% respectively, reflecting a significant upward trend despite a generally loose funding environment [9][10][2] - The bond market's traditional pricing mechanisms have failed, as the expectations for a return to a stable stock market have been repeatedly invalidated [10][2] Group 2 - Institutional behavior is identified as a significant risk factor for the bond market in the upcoming quarter, with banks under pressure to realize profits due to declining financial investment returns [3][18][21] - The average decline in financial investment returns for state-owned banks and joint-stock banks in the first half of 2025 was 30 basis points and 28 basis points respectively, indicating a heightened urgency to cash in on profits [18][21] - The behavior of banks, including a trend of "selling long and buying short," suggests a cautious approach to bond investments as they seek to adjust their balance sheets [21][18] Group 3 - The funding environment is expected to be tight at the beginning of September but may ease later in the month, with historical trends indicating a rise in funding rates post-August [4][31][33] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a stable funding environment is evident, with significant short-term injections to fill funding gaps during tax periods [33][31] - The anticipated net issuance of government bonds in September is projected to be around 1.3 trillion yuan, which is expected to have a limited impact on the funding environment [31][33] Group 4 - The fundamental economic indicators for July showed a downward trend in inflation, credit, consumption, investment, and real estate, which the bond market has largely ignored [5][38][41] - The upcoming release of August data may reinforce the downward trend in key economic indicators, potentially leading to increased expectations for loose monetary policy [5][38] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with significant declines in second-hand housing prices in major cities, indicating weak demand [41][38] Group 5 - The bond market's ability to regain its "independent personality" hinges on three key factors: the stock market's return to a volatile state, the release of economic data, and the clearing of negative institutional behaviors [6][45][49] - The current market conditions suggest that while the stock market may experience fluctuations, it is premature to conclude that the upward trend has ended, necessitating a defensive stance in the bond market [49][45] - The bond market is expected to undergo a three-phase process in September: an observation period, a negotiation period, and a bargain-hunting period, with strategies focusing on leveraging and maintaining a neutral duration [57][58]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the last week of August, with limited incremental news and a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the bond market maintained a volatile trend. The central bank protected liquidity, and cross - month funds were relatively stable. Most major - term varieties showed slight recoveries, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 2.5bp to 1.35% [3][12] - In terms of fundamentals and monetary policy, although the probability of further weakening of economic data is not low, the bond market still faces significant adjustment pressure. According to seasonal patterns, September usually has the weakest market performance, with a yield decline probability of only 17% in the past six years. From the end of August to the peak, the adjustment was 5.25bp - 13bp, and the median adjustment to the September central level was 2.59bp. However, if the 10Y Treasury rate further breaks through to 1.8%, it will return to the cost - pricing framework above OMO + 40bp, and the allocation portfolio will gradually have cost - effectiveness [6] - Given that the central bank's actions will dominate the bond market trend in September, if the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases in September, the pressure on the money market may continue to affect market sentiment. Currently, using a barbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best strategy [6] - Looking at the second half of the year, with the Fed likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, combined with weak domestic demand and the global trend of returning to interest rate cuts, the expectation of double - rate cuts may increase in mid - to - late August. For the second half of the year, the bond market may experience a strong downward trend from August to September. It is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration, and the 30 - year variety, which has performed weakly recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [35] Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - In the last week of August, with limited incremental news and a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the bond market maintained a volatile trend. The central bank protected liquidity, and cross - month funds were relatively stable. Most major - term varieties showed slight recoveries, with the 1 - year Treasury yield dropping 2.5bp to 1.35% [3][12] - In terms of interest - rate bonds, the 1 - year yield remained stable at 1.37%, while the yields of 3 - year and above increased by 3 - 5bp, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields rising 4bp and 3bp to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively. The trend of policy - bank bonds was similar to that of Treasuries, with the yields of each term decreasing by about 2 - 3bp [15] - In the credit - bond market, medium - and long - term varieties were under pressure. On the implied AA + urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 3bp, 8bp, and 9bp respectively, with the yields of 3 - year and above generally returning above 2.0%. On the AAA - secondary capital bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 4bp, 6bp, and 7bp respectively, with the adjustment amplitudes of the 3 - year and 5 - year yields larger than those of the same - term policy - bank bond varieties [15] Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, local bonds were issued at 369.2 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 201.3 billion yuan, including 9.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 239.3 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 68 billion yuan of special special bonds), 95.8 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 24.5 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20] - Treasury bonds were issued at 392.7 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 352.6 billion yuan, including 83.1 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20] - Policy - bank bonds were issued at 164 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 162 billion yuan [20] - Specific issuance details of some interest - rate bonds are provided in the table, including various Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds, with information on trading codes, bond names, issuance scales, issuance terms, and coupon rates [19] Funds Market Situation - With the central bank's liquidity injection, the money market during the tax period remained stable. Under the central bank's protection, cross - month interest rates were relatively stable. The weekly averages of R001 and DR001 decreased significantly compared to the previous week (tax period), dropping 13bp and 14bp respectively, DR007 also decreased by 1bp, and R007 increased slightly due to cross - month effects, with the weekly average rising 1bp [26] - This week, the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45% respectively, changing by - 5bp and + 3.8bp compared to the previous week; the overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28% respectively, changing by - 43.1bp and - 36.2bp compared to the previous week [26] - Affected by the tightening of the money market during the tax period, most certificate of deposit yields increased. The 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year yields increased by 3bp, 2bp, and 3bp respectively, reaching 1.55%, 1.61%, and 1.67%. The weighted issuance period extended to 8.1 months, compared to 6.4 months in the previous week. As the money market tightened more than expected during the tax period, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, with the average trading volume dropping from 8.15 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.13 trillion yuan [29] China Bond Market Macro Environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has remained below 100 in the past week. With the continuous global "de - dollarization" trend, the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate, closing below 7.18 on Friday. Looking forward to the second half of the year, under the "moderately loose" monetary policy tone, the central bank may maintain a loose stance [34] - This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 4.95 billion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 0.2 trillion yuan from reverse repurchases, a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan from outright reverse repurchases, and a net withdrawal of 0.1 trillion yuan from treasury deposits at banks [34] - In terms of fundamentals, in July, CPI year - on - year growth was 0, higher than the expected - 0.1%, and the commodity retail sub - items showed varying degrees of recovery; PPI year - on - year was - 3.6%, remaining in a sluggish state, indicating that price recovery still faces significant pressure. Meanwhile, credit data is to be released in the coming week. Considering the decline in the cumulative transfer discount scale of large - scale banks in July and the return of the end - of - month bill rate to zero, the social financing data for July may not be optimistic [35] - In terms of monetary policy, due to insufficient effective economic demand, the loose monetary policy will continue. In terms of exchange rates, as the Japanese yen and the euro strengthen, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, and the pressure on RMB depreciation is relatively controllable in the short term. Therefore, external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term. For the second half of the year, the monetary policy still needs to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and liquidity is likely to remain loose. Currently, the periodic tightness of liquidity may be mainly caused by institutional expectations [35]

Core Insights - The global bond market is undergoing a significant adjustment driven by rising fiscal deficits, increasing public debt, persistent inflation, and a shift in investor sentiment towards higher yields [2][3][12] Group 1: Fiscal Deficits and Rising Yields - Fiscal deficits in Europe and the U.S. are expanding, with the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from under 80% pre-pandemic to nearly 120% by mid-2025 [3] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 6-7% of GDP even during favorable economic conditions, exerting upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [3] - The UK's borrowing needs are anticipated to reach historical highs by early 2025, with long-term bond yields exceeding 5.6%, the highest since 1998 [3] Group 2: Japan's Debt Burden - Japan has the heaviest debt burden, exceeding 250% of GDP, and is adjusting its yield curve control policy due to global pressures, leading to a 30-year bond yield surpassing 3% for the first time [5] Group 3: Inflation and Central Bank Credibility - Persistent inflation is a global driving factor, eroding the real value of fixed-income bonds and prompting investors to demand higher returns to protect their capital [6][7] - Central banks have paused interest rate hikes after aggressive increases in 2022-23, yet bond yields continue to rise due to quantitative tightening [8][9] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investor psychology has shifted from assuming low yields would persist to a more cautious stance, with "bond vigilantes" re-emerging to enforce fiscal discipline through bond sell-offs [10][11] - The demand for safe-haven bonds has diminished, with investors focusing more on inflation and debt issues rather than seeking safety during global crises [11] Group 5: Structural Reset of the Global Bond Market - The global bond market is experiencing a structural reset, with long-term yields rising across various countries, marking the end of the ultra-low interest rate era [12][13] - Credit ratings reflect disparities among countries, with the U.S. losing its AAA rating and other nations facing similar pressures, leading to increased borrowing costs and fiscal strain [12]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic data for August shows signs of weakness, with most indicators such as industrial output, services, consumption, investment, and real estate sales falling below previous values, while only exports accelerated [3][5][85] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed a nearly 10-year high, driven by improved market risk appetite under the influence of wide credit policies [3][4] - The report highlights a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy as the main logic in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a peak of 1.7925% during the month [3][4][11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment analysis reveals that the manufacturing PMI for July marginally increased to 49.4%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy for the third quarter [5][29] - The report notes that the central bank's monetary policy has been relatively supportive, with significant net injections of funds in August, including a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan [24][71] - The bond market strategy suggests adopting a barbell strategy to balance liquidity and yield, especially if the 10-year government bond yield breaks the 1.8% resistance level [6][85] Group 3 - The report discusses the government bond issuance situation, indicating that local government bond issuance in August was 977.6 billion yuan, which is lower than planned by 183.2 billion yuan [19] - It is projected that the supply pressure of government bonds in September may decrease compared to August, with an expected net financing scale of 1.3 trillion yuan [19][20] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's performance is influenced by the dynamics of the stock market, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect expected to weaken in September [85] Group 4 - The analysis of the overseas economic environment indicates that the process of de-dollarization has slowed, while downward pressure on the US economy has begun to emerge [73][84] - The report highlights that foreign investment in China's bond market has been on the rise, with foreign holdings reaching 4.39 trillion yuan by June [73][76] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September could impact the Chinese bond market, necessitating close monitoring of overseas economic data [77][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance of replacement bonds is tapering off, and the urban investment bond market continues to experience a narrow - scale contraction. In August 2025, the net repayment of urban investment bonds was 840 million yuan, with the scale narrowing compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The issuance and maturity scales both decreased year - on - year. There may still be an unreleased early repayment pressure from special refinancing bonds, and the risk of early discounted redemption should be noted [2][13][17]. - The financing of municipal - level entities has turned positive, and the proportion of short - duration bond issuance has increased in the volatile market. The net financing of municipal - level entities has recovered, mainly due to the marginal improvement in the financing environment of some strong municipal - level entities. The 3 - year - plus bonds remain the main issuance term, but the scale of 1 - year bonds has significantly increased [2][13]. - The overall subscription sentiment has declined, while short - duration varieties have seen an inverse increase. In August, the average subscription multiple of urban investment bonds was 2.88 times, a decrease from the previous month. The subscription multiples of municipal - level entities have marginally increased, while those of other levels have decreased. The demand for bonds within 1 year has increased, while that for bonds over 5 years has decreased [3][14]. - The credit bond market has been continuously volatile, and the market favors short - end varieties. Since August, the credit bond market has shown a volatile upward trend, and the market tends to choose short - end credit assets to avoid risks. The yields of bonds at all terms and levels have generally increased, with short - duration bonds performing relatively stably. The spreads of short - end bonds have been compressed [3][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Replacement Bonds Issuance Tapering Off, Urban Investment Continues Narrow - Scale Contraction 3.1.1 Issuance and Repayment: Six - Month Consecutive Net Repayment of Urban Investment Financing - As of August 31, 2025, 3,797 urban investment entities under the HA caliber issued 51.74 billion yuan in bonds and repaid 52.58 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 840 million yuan. The net repayment scale decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The financing structure has further differentiated, with municipal - level entities ending five consecutive months of net repayment, while low - level entities such as district - level entities continue to contract [17]. - From an administrative perspective, the net financing of municipal - level entities was 1.25 billion yuan, and that of provincial - level entities was 860 million yuan in August. District - level and park - level entities had net repayments of 1.73 billion yuan and 1.24 billion yuan respectively [17]. - From a rating perspective, only AAA - rated entities had net inflows of 2.63 billion yuan in August, while other rated entities had net repayments, with AA + entities having the highest at 1.98 billion yuan [18]. - From a variety perspective, MTN had the highest net financing of 3.88 billion yuan, while enterprise bonds had the highest net repayment of 2.47 billion yuan [18]. - From a term perspective, bonds with a term of over 3 years had the highest net financing of 11.03 billion yuan, while 2 - year bonds had the highest net repayment of 9.59 billion yuan [18]. - From a regional perspective, Zhejiang had the highest net financing of 1.03 billion yuan, while Jiangsu had the highest net repayment of 1.56 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Beijing had increases, while Shanghai, Sichuan, and Henan had decreases [19]. - From a subject perspective, 344 entities had net inflows in August, with Shaanxi Xixian New Area Development Group Co., Ltd. having the highest net financing of 450 million yuan [19]. 3.1.2 Maturity Pressure: Approximately 6.5 trillion yuan will mature before the end of 2026 - As of August 31, 2025, the maturity pressure of 3,797 urban investment bonds under the HA caliber before the end of 2026 is about 6.47 trillion yuan, with 1.81 trillion yuan in 2025 and 4.66 trillion yuan in 2026. The remaining maturity pressure by the end of 2025 is about 180.86 billion yuan, with the peak in September at 55.64 billion yuan [39]. - The top 5 provinces in terms of remaining maturity amount by the end of 2025 are Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Hubei [40]. - The top 5 cities are Qingdao, Nanjing, Suzhou, Chengdu, and Xi'an [41]. - The top 5 districts are Jiangning District of Nanjing, Huangdao District of Qingdao, Huangpu District of Guangzhou, Shapingba District of Chongqing, and Jimo District of Qingdao [41]. - The top 5 parks are Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, Xi'an High - tech Industrial Development Zone, Taizhou Medical High - tech Industrial Development Zone, Wuzhong Economic and Technological Development Zone, and Suzhou High - tech Industrial Development Zone [41]. - The top 5 entities are Shudao Investment Group Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Communications Holding Co., Ltd., Hunan Expressway Group Co., Ltd., Shandong Hi - Speed Group Co., Ltd., and Qingdao Urban Construction Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. [41]. 3.1.3 Primary Subscription: The average subscription multiple is 2.88 times, and short - duration bonds are favored - In August, among the issued urban investment bonds, 27.28 billion yuan of bonds disclosed bidding data, with a cumulative bidding scale of 78.56 billion yuan and an average subscription multiple of 2.88 times, a decrease from the previous month [44]. - In terms of administrative levels, the subscription multiples of municipal - level entities have marginally increased. The average subscription multiple of provincial - level entities was 2.20 times, a decrease from the previous month; that of municipal - level entities was 3.35 times, an increase; that of district - level entities was 2.87 times, a decrease; and that of park - level entities was 2.86 times, a decrease [46]. - In terms of bond ratings, the overall subscription sentiment of all rated entities has cooled down, and the subscription of AA - rated bonds has significantly declined. The average subscription multiples of AAA, AA +, AA, AA(2), and AA - rated bonds have changed to varying degrees compared to the previous month [46]. - In terms of bond terms, short - and long - duration bonds have shown different performances, and the demand for bonds within 1 year has increased. The average subscription multiple of bonds within 1 year was 2.43 times, an increase from the previous month; that of 1 - 2 - year bonds was 3.41 times, a slight increase; that of 2 - 3 - year bonds was 3.19 times, a decrease; that of 3 - 5 - year bonds was 3.24 times, a slight decrease; and that of bonds over 5 years was 2.61 times, a significant decrease [47]. 3.2 The Credit Bond Market is Continuously Volatile, and the Market Favors Short - End Varieties 3.2.1 Valuation Spread: Credit Volatility Weakens, Triggering Redemption Concerns - Since August, the credit bond market has shown a volatile upward trend. The market tends to choose short - end credit assets to avoid risks. At the beginning of the month, the market stabilized due to factors such as loose liquidity and the resumption of VAT on treasury bonds. In the middle and late months, the equity market affected the bond market, and there was a large - scale net capital withdrawal. The yields and spreads of credit bonds increased rapidly, deviating from the trend of interest - rate bonds, triggering concerns about a redemption wave. By the end of the month, the market stopped falling again and returned to a narrow - range volatile market [54]. - The yields of bonds at all terms and levels have generally increased, with short - duration bonds performing relatively stably. For example, the yields of 1 - year AAA, AA +, AA, and AA(2) bonds have increased by 0.2bp, 0.2bp, 0.7bp, and 0.2bp respectively; those of 3 - year bonds have increased by 5.5bp, 6.0bp, 7.0bp, and 11.5bp respectively; and those of 5 - year bonds have increased by 7.1bp, 9.0bp, 16.1bp, and 16.1bp respectively [55]. - The spreads of short - and long - end bonds have shown different performances, and the spreads of bonds within 1 year have been compressed. For example, the spreads of 1 - year AAA, AA +, AA, and AA(2) bonds have narrowed by 3.3bp, 3.3bp, 2.8bp, and 3.3bp respectively; those of 3 - year bonds have changed to varying degrees; and those of 5 - year bonds have also shown different trends [56][59]. 3.2.2 Secondary Transaction: Activity Continues to Decline, and Risk - Aversion Sentiment Increases - The trading activity of urban investment bonds has declined, and the trading enthusiasm has significantly decreased. In August 2025, the sample trading records of urban investment bonds were about 14,000 transactions, with an average daily trading volume of about 665 transactions, a 11.0% decrease from the previous month. The daily average trading volume has declined for three consecutive months. The proportion of taken transactions was 70%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the long - short ratio has also slightly decreased [66]. - Driven by risk - aversion sentiment, the trading proportion of medium - and short - duration urban investment bonds has significantly increased. In terms of bond ratings, the trading proportion of AAA - rated bonds has decreased, while that of AA +, AA, and AA(2) bonds has increased, and that of AA - rated bonds has decreased. In terms of terms, the trading proportion of bonds within 1 year and 1 - 3 years has increased, while that of bonds over 3 years has decreased [67].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a slight decline, with an overall increase in market risk appetite, leading to a drop in government bond futures and a rise in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.18% to 116.680, the 10-year main contract down 0.03% to 107.955, the 5-year main contract down 0.02% to 105.57, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% to 102.412 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds generally increased, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.871%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.15 basis points to 1.77% [2]. Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 2,557 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan for the day [4]. - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.1 basis points to 1.314%, and the 7-day rate down 0.7 basis points to 1.431%, marking a new low since September 2022 [4]. Institutional Insights - Financial institutions suggest that while the bond market may not be overly pessimistic, the overall liquidity in the secondary market remains weak, with structural highlights in certain floating-rate bonds [5]. - The outlook for September indicates that the central bank will maintain a reasonable liquidity level, especially considering the seasonal pressures from the end of the quarter [5].