1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand situations of each commodity and gives corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price oscillated on Tuesday, with London gold blocked at $4150. Weak US economic data increased rate - cut expectations. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness gradually eased. Suggest gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price rose and then fell. December rate - cut is likely, and the market discussed the possibility of a dovish official becoming the next Fed Chair. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [3]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price rose by 0.40% to 21,465 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly, and demand was stable. Expected to maintain oscillating adjustment [3]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price fell by 0.33% to 2,727 yuan/ton. Supply had narrow fluctuations, and demand was high. Expected to show an oscillating and slightly bearish trend before large - scale production cuts [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract price rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton. Supply might decline in November, and demand was supported. The price was expected to move between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2605 contract price rose by 5.76% to 97,340 yuan/ton. Supply was high, and demand increased. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term. Pay attention to inventory data [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract price rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Near - month prices were anchored to the spot range. Suggest waiting and watching [4]. - **Tin**: Price was oscillating and slightly bullish. December rate - cut was likely. Supply was tight, and demand was on - demand. Consider an oscillating and slightly bullish approach [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract price rose to 3,097 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and supply - demand was weak. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for RB01 is 3,060 - 3,110 yuan/ton [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract price rose to 795.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract price fell to 1,067 yuan/ton. Supply - demand was weakening. Suggest leaving the market and waiting. The reference range for JM01 is 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean prices rose slightly. Supply was contracting in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term. Demand for US soybean crushing was strong. US soybeans were expected to be oscillating, and the domestic market's medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices were oscillating and slightly bullish. Supply was delayed due to weather, and demand was strong. However, new production was expected to increase. Suggest waiting and watching [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply pressure decreased, and short - term prices were slightly bullish but with limited sustainability. Expected to oscillate [7]. - **Vegetable Oils**: Palm oil prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price rose slightly. International prices might bottom - out in the long - term, and domestic pressure was high. Suggest shorting futures and selling call options [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rebounded, and domestic prices rose. Suggest buying at low prices, with a strategy in the 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weaker in the near - term. Supply was abundant, and demand might increase seasonally. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Price fell slightly. Supply pressure was rising but at a slower pace, and demand was weak. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [8][9]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply decreased in the short - term. PX was expected to be bullish in the long - term, and short - term PTA supply - demand improved. Suggest taking profits on long PX and short PTA processing - fee positions [9]. - **Rubber**: Price fell by 0.85%. Inventory increased. Expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PP**: Price fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Expected to be oscillating and slightly bearish in the short - term and supply - demand to be loose in the long - term. Suggest shorting at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was high, and inventory increased. Suggest shorting at high prices for the 01 contract and taking partial profits [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Price fell sharply. Supply pressure was large, and demand was in the off - season. Suggest holding short positions [10]. - **Styrene**: Price oscillated slightly. Supply - demand improved in the short - term but might weaken later. Expected to oscillate, with upside limited by the import window [10].

生猪 玉米 | 报告 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 11 月 26 日 玉米报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 玉米 | 报告 期现联动 玉米价格攀升 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证 书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业 态度，独立、客观地出具本 报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人 不会因本报告中的具体推荐 意见或观点而直接或间接接 收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 请务必阅读文末免责条款 11 月份以来，玉米期货主力 2601 合约连续 4 周出现上涨，并在 11 月下旬成功站上 2200 元/吨的整数关口，期价重回 2025 年 7 月末的高点。在玉米期价节节攀升的背后，也获得了 玉米产业链联动走强的有力支撑。 一、东北农户惜售心理较强 物流紧张推动价格上涨 当前国内东北产区玉米价格震荡上涨，截至 2025 年 11 月 20 ...

此外，AgMarket.Net的农经学家吉姆·麦考密克表示，一些分析师和交易员对中国是否会履行大豆购买 承诺持怀疑态度。虽然白宫表示中国承诺购买1200万吨大豆。据是中方从未公开表示过达成了这样的协 议。麦考密克表示，特朗普政府暗示美中贸易协议可能在感恩节前最终敲定。 尽管近期中国开始恢复采购美国大豆，但是据俄亥俄州立大学的农经学家伊恩·谢尔顿表示，他估计中 国在年底前不会购买1200万吨美国大豆。 周一美国农业部长罗林斯表示，据她了解，美国和中国将在本周或下周签署农产品采购协议。她补充 说，她相信中国会履行其购买承诺。 谢尔顿表示，由于中国已经拥有足够的供应，因此没有太多动力进行额外采购。他补充说，(中国能否 实现采购目标)，在很大程度上取决于中国政府在推动国有贸易商进口大豆的举措。进入新的一年后， 采购步伐将取决于私人贸易商以及美国大豆相对巴西大豆的价格竞争力。 罗林斯称，种种迹象表明，中国的承诺依然有效，确实会购买1200万吨大豆。 （来源：饲料行业信息网） 此外，美国大豆销售高峰即将结束，进口商现在面临着运输限制。通过巴拿马运河的每艘货轮可以运输 6万至8万吨。而要达到1200万吨的运输量，就需要15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends in various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak - oscillating state, while some products like apples have shown a certain upward trend. The report recommends constructing option combination strategies mainly for sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have different performance in terms of price, trading volume, and open interest. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,107, with a decline of 10 and a decrease rate of 0.24%, and its trading volume is 11.62 million lots with a decrease of 6.05 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.58 with a change of 0.08, and the open - interest PCR is 1.01 with a change of - 0.07 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option has its corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,200 and the support level is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.6, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.67 with a change of - 0.64 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations for Different Products 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation is affected by factors such as China's purchase of US soybeans and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs. The option strategy includes constructing a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The average daily trading volume and delivery volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills have increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory situation affect the market. The option strategy includes constructing a bearish option bear spread combination strategy, a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The spot peanut price is weak, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually release. The option strategy includes a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The supply and demand of pigs are affected by factors such as group enterprise sales and consumer demand. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The domestic egg price has declined, and the supply is sufficient. The option strategy includes constructing a selling neutral call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The apple production has decreased this year. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bullish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The acquisition progress of jujubes in Xinjiang varies by region. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi has declined, and the basis has weakened. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The global cotton production has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The average price of corn in China has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a selling bullish call + put option combination strategy [13].

据"加纳网"11月22日报道，由于欧盟正力促推迟森林砍伐法规(EUDR)的生效日期，该法案将禁止 从非洲、印度尼西亚和南美洲等森林砍伐严重的地区进口农产品，其推迟放松了可可商的合规压力，缓 解了供应担忧，导致近期可可期货价格暴跌至近两年来的最低点,每吨4943美元。 （原标题：供应过剩导致全球可可价格下跌） 此外，美国特朗普政府上周五宣布取消对包括可可在内非美国本土种植的大宗商品的对等关税，也 进一步加剧了可可价格的下行压力。 此外，西非地区可可丰收的预期也打压了可可价格。可可树长势良好，有利的天气有助于可可豆荚 生长和烘干。巧克力制造商亿滋国际表示，西非最新的可可豆英数量比五年平均水平高出7%，显著高 于去年的产量。 同时，可可价格也受到疲软的全球需求影响，第三季度亚洲研磨量同比下降17%，至18万吨，欧洲 研磨量同比下降4.8%，至33.7万吨，创十年来同期最低水平。北美则同比上升了3.2%。 不过，全球最大可可生产国科特迪瓦可可出口放缓的迹象，对价格上涨构成利好。政府数据显示， 从10月1日至11月16日，科特迪瓦农户运往港口的可可量为51.6万公吨，比去年同期下降了5.7%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in soybean production and stable prices in Northeast China, leading to heightened purchasing activity among traders who are boosting their inventory reserves [1][3]. - In Heilongjiang, soybean traders report daily acquisition volumes of around 300 tons since the new crop was launched at the end of September, with total purchases reaching over 13,000 tons, nearly doubling compared to the same period last year [3]. - The focus of soybean procurement has shifted towards protein content, with high-protein soybeans (over 40% protein) becoming the primary target for traders, reflecting a change in the criteria for pricing and purchasing [5][7]. Group 2 - The soybean market in China has developed a clear segmentation, with high-oil soybeans containing 35%-38% protein primarily used for oil extraction and meal production, priced between 1.9 to 2.0 yuan per jin, while high-protein soybeans are priced between 2.1 to 2.3 yuan per jin [7]. - The supply of high-protein soybeans has been affected by adverse weather conditions in key production areas like Henan and Anhui, leading to a decrease in their yield, which in turn has increased the market demand for high-protein soybeans from Northeast China [9].

Core Insights - The National Market Supervision Administration (NMSA) has reported a significant improvement in food safety, with a completion of 5.7026 million food safety inspections and a non-compliance rate of only 2.74% as of mid-November this year [1] - The number of enterprises with multiple non-compliance cases has decreased by nearly 50% from 2020 to 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 57.47% in the first three quarters of this year [1][5] Group 1: Food Safety Inspection and Regulation - Food safety inspections serve as a "radar" and "locator" for regulatory oversight, providing targeted monitoring across the entire food supply chain [2] - The NMSA has expanded its coverage to include all production enterprises and increased inspection efforts for small processing workshops, ensuring comprehensive oversight of traditional and new business models [2] - A total of 39 categories of food are now included in the inspection scope, covering 2,066 testing indicators related to pesticides, veterinary drugs, and microorganisms [2] Group 2: Focus on Key Areas and Technological Innovation - The NMSA emphasizes targeted and proactive regulation, particularly in areas concerning children's food, with 100% inspection coverage for infant formula production enterprises and monthly inspections for infant formula products [3] - The introduction of 106 supplementary testing methods this year has enhanced the ability to detect nearly 1,000 substances, significantly reducing the space for food safety violations [3] Group 3: Inter-Departmental Collaboration - A collaborative mechanism has been established among various departments, including the NMSA, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and Customs, to ensure comprehensive monitoring of food safety [4] - Over 60,000 batches of non-compliant food products have been identified this year, with effective follow-up actions taken to safeguard public health [4] Group 4: Strict Enforcement and Penalties - The NMSA has strictly enforced regulations, processing over 170,000 food safety inspection cases this year, with fines totaling approximately 420 million yuan [5] - The number of non-compliant enterprises has significantly decreased, with a 50% reduction from 2020 to 2024 and a 57.47% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of this year [5] Group 5: Import Food Safety Measures - Customs has implemented a comprehensive regulatory system for imported food, ensuring strict control from source to entry and subsequent handling [6] - In the first ten months of 2025, Customs completed supervision and inspection of 97,793 imported food samples, with 7,138 batches of non-compliant products returned or destroyed [6]

（文章来源：新华财经） 船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚11月1日-25日棕榈油出口量为1041935吨，较前一月同期出口的 1283814吨减少18.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent losses in pig farming, combined with the implementation of capacity control policies, are expected to enhance the expectation of capacity reduction in the pig industry, potentially leading to a long-term increase in pig prices. Low-cost, high-quality pig enterprises are likely to gain excess returns [1][3]. Pig Farming - The national breeding sow inventory fell below 40 million heads by the end of October, a reduction of over 350,000 heads compared to September, indicating gradual effects of capacity reduction [1][3]. - Pig prices initially declined but later showed slight recovery due to improved terminal consumption as temperatures dropped. As of November 21, the pig price was 11.62 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg [2]. - The average weight of pigs marketed increased to 128.81 kg as of November 20, with a week-on-week increase of 0.33 kg, driven by rising weights due to lower temperatures and increased marketing by farmers [2]. Cattle Industry - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly declined, with the price of calves at 32 yuan/kg (up 0.63% week-on-week) and fattened bulls at 25.58 yuan/kg (down 0.16% week-on-week). The cumulative increase for calves since the beginning of the year is 32.73% [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce's investigation into import beef safeguard measures has been extended to November 26, 2025, due to complex case circumstances, warranting attention to upcoming import safeguard measures [4]. - Long-term supply tightness in beef is anticipated due to previous losses leading to significant capacity reduction, with prices expected to enter an upward cycle around 2026-2027 [4]. Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices are currently at a cyclical low, with a price of 3.03 yuan/kg as of November 14, reflecting a 31% decline from the cyclical peak. Continued losses in raw milk are expected to drive ongoing capacity reduction [4]. - As supply contracts due to capacity reduction, raw milk prices are anticipated to stabilize and recover in the future. Companies to watch include Yuran Dairy and China Shengmu [4]. Poultry Sector - The price of white feather broilers is under pressure due to reduced purchasing activity, with a current price of 7.15 yuan/kg (up 0.03% week-on-week) and chick prices at 3.48 yuan each (down 0.01% week-on-week). Ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may restrict upstream capacity [5]. - The average price of eggs is 6.25 yuan/kg (down 0.24% week-on-week), with chick prices at 2.80 yuan each (down 0.1% week-on-week). The ongoing avian influenza is causing a shortage of quality breeding stock, which may drive egg prices up in the future [5]. Agricultural Products - The USDA report for November has led to a pullback in soybean meal prices, with spot prices at 3070 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton week-on-week) and futures prices at 3012 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week) [6][7]. - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, awaiting positive drivers, while attention should be paid to actual soybean purchases and South American planting weather [7].

ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 玉米系数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/11/25 整体来说,短期基层借售,东北物流紧张,下游低库存等因素带来阶段性供应紧张,现货价格坚挺,盘面跟随反弹。卖压预期后置,供应 压力未充分释放前建议谨慎看多,关注农户售粮节奏变化和物流情况。 玉米主力合约基差(锦州港平舱价) 玉米淀粉主力合约基差 数据来源:WIND、钢联 ttp://19/20 ===== 19/20 ====== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 ===== 22/23 ===== 23/24 = ======21/22 ==========22/23 == == first and the state of the succession war in the of the province of the may AX x with ! 2 : Milling 200 H -200 -200 400 -400 02/21 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 ...