农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment this year, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The bottom - support role of Central Huijin provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers a layout opportunity for the index to rise further next year, and traders can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve the winning rate of long - term investments [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: The market divergence will be digested during the shock adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further. The adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can establish long positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space, showing a shock trend [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper's cancelled warehouse receipts cause concerns about a squeeze, leading to a rise in copper prices. However, there is a risk of a price decline after the short - term positive sentiment is digested [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic alumina production and inventory continue to increase, the fundamentals remain weak, and the price is under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the change in ore prices [1]. - **Zinc**: After the short - term macro - positive sentiment is digested, the fundamentals of zinc have improved. Attention should be paid to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Nickel**: With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes. The nickel ore premium in Indonesia in December remains stable. The short - term nickel price may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the long - term primary nickel market remains in an oversupply pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes. The raw material nickel - iron price is weak, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production cuts are expected to increase in December. The stainless - steel futures may rebound in the short - term shock. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and look for opportunities to sell at high prices for hedging [1]. - **Tin**: After the macro - positive sentiment is digested, due to the tense situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the short - term tin ore supply has not recovered, and the risk of unexpected disturbances has increased, leading to a rise in tin prices. However, considering that the tin ore production in the DRC has not been affected and the demand is under pressure, there is a risk of a short - term pullback. In the long - term, tin is still regarded as bullish, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [1]. - **Gold**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in December is relatively high. The gold price may still be supported and maintain a high - level range shock [1]. - **Silver**: The high probability of a Fed rate cut in December, the imbalance in the supply - demand structure, and the continuous inflow of ETFs are expected to continue to support the silver price. However, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has risen for seven consecutive days, and the weekly inventory on the COMEX has also stopped falling. The short - term silver market may continue to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [1]. - **Platinum**: The short - term platinum price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low levels [1]. - **Palladium**: The short - term palladium price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Industrial Silicon**: Production increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large manufacturers are willing to support prices but have low delivery willingness. The number of delivery brands has increased [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production, and the short - term increase is relatively large [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: The macro - drive in December is enhanced, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - arbitrage positions. It is not recommended to chase the high for unilateral trading, and appropriate participation in spot - futures positions is advisable [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the macro - drive in December is enhanced, providing rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - arbitrage positions. It is not recommended to chase the high for unilateral trading, and spot - futures positive - arbitrage positions can still be rolled [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - **Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the current decline is close to the end. The coke contract at 1630 prices in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and each coking - coal contract is also close to the key support level. Further decline requires a continuous increase in coking - coal supply. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For the strategy, it is advisable to take a short - term approach for unilateral trading, and wait and see in the medium - and long - term. Hedging short positions can be cashed out [1]. - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows glass, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is relatively large resistance to price increases [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The impact of floods on palm - oil production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is still high. The expected arrival in China in December is relatively large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **FFB**: There is a lack of an independent market driven by fundamentals in the short - term, and it is mainly affected by the domestic logic of shutdown and inventory reduction, showing relatively strong resistance to decline [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil in the future, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive". Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas, the intention of next year's cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: Currently, there is a global sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the market continues to decline, there is strong cost support at the bottom, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental drivers in the short - term. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - **Corn**: The recent counter - seasonal rise in corn prices is mainly due to the extremely tight downstream inventory caused by the market's consistent bearish expectation, combined with factors such as logistics and grain - source quality. In the short - term, before the spot contradiction is resolved, the near - month contracts are expected to maintain a high - level shock. In the medium - term, the trends of the 03 and 05 contracts need to closely monitor the selling rhythm in the production areas, the arrival of imported corn, and policy trends [1]. - **Soybeans**: China's procurement demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to be in a short - term shock. Attention should be paid to the weather in South America. Without obvious weather problems, from December to January, under the expectation of a Brazilian bumper harvest, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure, and the M05 contract is expected to be weak. The M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release [1]. - **Pulp**: Driven by supply - side disturbances and low warehouse receipts, the pulp price has risen rapidly in the short - term. It has now had a premium over the spot price of the delivery product, and new warehouse - receipt registrations have appeared, so there is relatively large pressure for further price increases. A short - term pullback is possible, and a 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has already been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of further short - selling after a sharp decline in the market is relatively low, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The support for the butadiene price is limited, and refinery overhauls may bring a relatively strong market expectation. The supply price of mainstream cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber has been significantly reduced, but rubber factories still have profits and strong processing willingness. The high - inventory and loose fundamentals are still the main factors suppressing the rubber price increase, but the synthetic valuation is currently low, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound amplitude [1]. - **PX**: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, the US's action expectation towards Venezuela is wavering. Domestic rumors of reformer overhauls are beneficial to PX, and some South Korean producers are even considering taking offline the toluene - route PX units in December. Domestic PTA manufacturers benefit from India's cancellation of the BIS certification restriction on PTA imports, and the export prospects have improved, boosting the PX procurement sentiment [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory has increased, and the price has declined following the market. The coal price has fallen, and the cost support for domestic ethylene glycol has continued to weaken. The strong expectation of domestic plant commissioning suppresses the price increase of ethylene glycol [1]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, OPEC's production increase has slowed down, the US's action expectation towards Venezuela is wavering. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has also strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - **Benzene**: The Asian benzene price remains weak, and the operating rates of STDP units and reformer units have decreased. The US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending components has declined, and the cost support for benzene has weakened [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the lack of domestic demand limits the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - **PE**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is at a high level. There are ocean - going arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand and operating rate have weakened. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [1]. - **PP**: The number of overhauls is relatively small, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, and the cost support is relatively strong. The crude - oil price has fallen, and the oil - based production cost has decreased [1]. - **PVC**: The market has returned to fundamentals. There will be fewer overhauls in the future, new production capacity will be released, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand has weakened, and orders are not good [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants in Guangxi have started delivering before commissioning, and some alumina plants have postponed commissioning, slowing down the procurement rhythm. The operating load is relatively high, and there are few overhauls. There is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong caustic soda, and the liquid - chlorine price remains high. The absolute price is relatively low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of a squeeze [1]. - **PG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental logic of looseness. CP/FEI has recently rebounded and repaired. The ethylene plant of Maoming Petrochemical in South China is planned to be overhauled, and there is an expectation of an increase in civilian supply from then until January. The combustion demand is gradually being released, supported by chemical rigid demand, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure. After the PG price on the market has made up for the decline, it maintains a range - bound shock. Attention should be paid to the increase in the near - month price affected by natural gas and the decline in the far - month spread [1]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: There are price - increase expectations in December. The peak - season price - increase expectations have been priced in advance. The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [1].

【国富豆系研究周报】美豆出口需求依旧疲软，CBOT 大豆价格下 跌 20251208 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月8日 07:21 上海 标题已修改 油脂油料周度行情 目录 | 一、行情回顾 | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 | | 3. 豆油 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 巴西大豆产区天气 7 | | 2. 阿根廷大豆产区天气 8 | | 国际供需 10 = ( | | 1. 美国大豆 10 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 18 | | 四、 国内供需 21 | | 1. 豆油供需 21 | | 2. 豆粕供需 | | 五、 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 . | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. 大豆 图:CBOT美豆行情 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至12月5日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1105.25 美分 /蒲式耳,较前一周下跌2.81%。本周 CBOT 大豆价格下跌,主要受美豆出 现需求表现依旧疲软以及 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.36% to $4,227.7 per ounce, down 0.64% for the week; COMEX silver futures rose 2.28% to $58.8 per ounce, up 2.86% for the week [5]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both rose. U.S. crude oil rose 0.79% to $60.14 per barrel, up 2.72% for the week; Brent crude rose 1.01% to $63.9 per barrel, up 2.44% for the week [6]. - London base metals were mixed. LME copper rose 1.88% to $11,665 per ton, up 4.25% for the week; LME nickel rose 0.49% to $14,970 per ton, up 0.95% for the week [6]. - U.S. stocks rose slightly. The Dow rose 0.22% to 47,954.99 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 6,870.4 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 23,578.13 points [6]. - Domestic futures contracts were mixed. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose over 1%, while coking coal fell over 5% [8]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - The State Council executive meeting emphasized energy conservation and carbon reduction. China's futures market volume and turnover increased in November. Shipping freight indices declined. Morgan Stanley and the market expect Fed rate cuts [10][11][12]. - China and the U.S. held a video call on economic and trade issues. Russia hopes to accelerate the peace process in the Ukraine crisis. The U.S. core PCE price index unexpectedly dropped [14][15]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted trading margins and price limits for certain futures contracts. Glass companies may cut production due to high inventory [17]. Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. Copper, zinc, and lead inventories decreased, while aluminum, nickel, and tin inventories increased [20]. Black Futures - Shenzhen adjusted housing provident fund withdrawal rules. Steel production decreased in late November, while steel product production increased. Iron ore and steel inventories and production data were reported [22][25]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased. Sugar cane crushing in Guangxi was slower than last year. Domestic and global agricultural product data were reported [27][28][30]. 3. Financial Markets Financial Sector - More Shanghai-listed companies announced shareholding increase plans in the first 11 months. The FOF market boomed in 2025. The first batch of North Exchange 50 index funds had positive returns [35]. - A-shares rebounded last week. Analysts expect short-term volatility and recommend dividend and large-cap stocks. The Sichuan government issued a three-year plan for enterprise listing and M&A [36][37]. Industry - Rare disease drugs were included in the medical insurance and commercial insurance catalogs. The global semiconductor market grew in October. The Henan cultivated diamond industry aims to develop brands [38][39]. Overseas - The U.S. government investigated the food supply chain. Trump planned to promote inflation reduction. The EU fined social media platform X. Nigeria hopes to join the BRICS [41][42][43]. Commodities - The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month. The CME experienced a trading outage. Copper prices hit new highs [44][46]. Bonds - Local governments issued special bonds for government investment funds. Analysts expect a shift in asset trends after December meetings [47]. Foreign Exchange - Analysts expect the RMB to appreciate against the U.S. dollar in 2026 and recommend currency easing to avoid damage to exports [49]. 4. Upcoming Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include Japan's trade balance, Germany's industrial output, and China's import and export data [51]. - Upcoming events include the UK central bank's financial stability report and the European Central Bank's speech. A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is pending [53].

Core Insights - The General Administration of Customs reported that in the first 11 months, China's export of electromechanical products reached 14.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 60.9% of total exports [1] Group 1: Electromechanical Products - Exports of automatic data processing equipment and its components totaled 1.31 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.3% [1] - Exports of integrated circuits reached 1.29 trillion yuan, showing a significant growth of 25.6% [1] - Exports of automobiles amounted to 896.91 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.6% [1] Group 2: Labor-Intensive Products - Exports of labor-intensive products were 3.7 trillion yuan, a decline of 3.5%, making up 15.1% of total exports [1] - Exports of clothing and accessories were 987.26 billion yuan, down by 3.7% [1] - Exports of textiles reached 931.33 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.7% [1] - Exports of plastic products totaled 677.6 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% [1] Group 3: Agricultural Products - Exports of agricultural products reached 670.21 billion yuan, marking a growth of 2% [1]

| を业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月8日 | | | 王浅罐 | | Z0019938 | | 草畑 | | | | | | | | 12月5日 | 12月4日 | | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8600 | 8570 | | 30 | 0.35% | | 期价 | Y2601 8266 | 8254 | | 12 | 0.15% | | 墓差 | Y2601 334 | 316 | | 18 | 5.70% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 01+260 | 01+260 | | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 22769 | 18269 | | 4500 | 24.63% | | 棕櫚溫 | | | | | | | | 12月5日 | 12月4日 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 8740 广东24度 | 8640 | | 100 | 1.16% | | 期价 | P2601 8770 | 8୧୧୧ | | 104 | 1. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by factors such as the US - China trade agreement, South American soybean planting weather, and domestic demand [10]. - The soybean market will also experience short - term range - bound fluctuations, affected by the execution of the US - China trade agreement, imported soybean arrivals, and domestic soybean production [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in the follow - up negotiation and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year increased, but domestic soybean meal demand is in the off - season [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal in November. However, the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is affected by the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation. In the short term, soybean meal is driven by US soybeans to oscillate strongly, and future trends await further guidance on US soybean production, South American soybean planting weather, and the follow - up of the US - China trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; with the start of soybean planting in Brazil, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: The rising cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports domestic soybean price expectations [16]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, China will increase its purchase of US soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the total consumption also increased steadily. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, and output of US soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume also changed accordingly. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans also had some changes [23]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress in 2024 - The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the excellent - good rate also changed over time [24][25][26]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2024/25 to 2025/26 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29][31][32]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans generally showed an upward trend, and the total supply and total consumption also increased. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [38]. Domestic Imported Soybean Arrivals - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in November decreased from its high, with an overall year - on - year increase [39]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1100 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will remain range - bound in the short term. The M2605 contract will oscillate between 2700 and 2900 in the short term, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2601 contract of soybeans will oscillate between 4000 and 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20]. 7. Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of oscillating consolidation, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [68]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, uncertainties in the execution of the US - China trade agreement, and weak domestic demand in the short term. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of technical adjustment, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [71]. 8. Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The planting weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas, the follow - up execution of the US - China trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [74]. - **Second - most Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [75]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week, the CBOT January soybean contract fell 32 to close at 1105.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.81%; the January soybean meal contract fell 8 to close at 3036 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.26%; the spot price of soybean meal in South China remained flat at 3000 yuan per ton; the January rapeseed meal contract fell 55 to close at 2397 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.24%; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 70 to 2480 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.75% [2][5]. - There is a lack of news on China's purchase of US soybeans. The US claims that China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of February, but the current progress is slow and it is doubtful whether this target can be achieved. The external market lacks support and oscillates downward. Domestic soybean meal is suppressed by high inventory, while the import cost is still in a loss, providing support at the cost end. The Dalian soybean meal futures generally oscillate [2][5]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics reported that the rapeseed production was 21.8 million tons, which is bearish. With abundant global supply, ICE rapeseed prices have fallen, and rapeseed meal is relatively weak. The current weather conditions in South America are generally favorable, and the crop outlook is positive. On Friday, private exporters reported the sale of 462,000 tons of soybeans to China. Attention should be paid to the progress of US soybean exports, and we are waiting for the release of the December USDA report. The domestic soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the import cost provides support. It is expected that the short - term oscillation of Dalian soybean meal futures will continue [2][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | December 5th | November 28th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybeans | 1105.25 | 1137.25 | -32.00 | -2.81% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 481.00 | 500.00 | -19.00 | -3.80% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 498.00 | 502.00 | -4.00 | -0.80% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 70.75 | 64.34 | 6.41 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3036.00 | 3044.00 | -8.00 | -0.26% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2397.00 | 2452.00 | -55.00 | -2.24% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 639.00 | 592.00 | 47.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3040.00 | 3020.00 | 20.00 | 0.66% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3000.00 | 3000.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | -36.00 | -44.00 | 8.00 | | Yuan per ton | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 1.248 million tons, compared with 1.45 million tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 17.2 million tons, with a sales progress of 38.6%, compared with 55.5% in the same period last year. China started to purchase US soybeans this week, with a purchase volume of 232,000 tons [6]. - As of the week ending November 21, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was 2.5 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.81 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 324 US dollars per short ton, compared with 338 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.99 cents per pound, compared with 51.58 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.16 US dollars per bushel, compared with 11.15 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [6]. - According to Conab, as of the week ending November 29, 2025, the planting rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 86%, compared with 78% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. According to AgRural, as of the week ending November 27, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season had reached the expected 89%, compared with 81% in the previous week and 91% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the soybean export volume in December is expected to be 2.81 million tons, compared with 1.47 million tons in the same period last year [7]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending November 26, 2025, the sowing progress of soybeans in Argentina was 44.7%, compared with 36% in the previous week and 53.8% in the same period last year [7]. - The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the Brazilian soybean production area is expected to be 150 mm, higher than the normal level, and the overall weather conditions are good. The precipitation in Argentina will be relatively dry in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing. Continuous attention should be paid to the weather changes in this area [7]. - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.3661 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 368,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 3.881 million tons, a decrease of 714,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 107,000 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.576 million tons, an increase of 151,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.0825 million tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 5, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 140,280 tons, including 82,980 tons of spot trading and 57,300 tons of forward trading. The daily average total trading volume in the previous week was 124,340 tons; the daily average pick - up volume of soybean meal was 184,300 tons, compared with 188,000 tons in the previous week; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.0558 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons in the previous week; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.49 days, compared with 8.17 days in the previous week [8]. Industry News - StoneX estimated that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will be 177.2 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from its November forecast. However, if this forecast comes true, it will still be a record - high soybean output in Brazil. StoneX said that although the planting area has slightly expanded, this adjustment reflects the decline in the soybean production potential in the main producing states of Mato Grosso and Goias in Brazil [10]. - Patria Agronegocios estimated that the soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will reach 171.89 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the mid - November forecast. The expected output will increase by 1.4% compared with the 2024/25 season. Patria reported that the soybean sowing area in Brazil is expected to reach 48.58 million hectares (120 million acres), a 0.9% increase from the previous forecast and higher than the 47.69 million hectares in the previous year [10]. - Imea estimated that the soybean production in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season will be 47.18 million tons, remaining stable compared with the November report forecast. The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from November 24th to November 28th was 492.95 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 451.85 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous week. During the same week, the price of soybean meal in the state was 1,615.80 Brazilian reals per ton, and the price of soybean oil was 6,290.33 Brazilian reals per ton [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of November 30, the palm oil import volume of the EU in the 2025/26 season was 1.17 million tons, compared with 1.42 million tons last year. The soybean import volume was 4.97 million tons, compared with 5.75 million tons last year. The soybean meal import volume was 7.46 million tons, compared with 8.33 million tons last year. The rapeseed import volume was 1.58 million tons, compared with 2.61 million tons last year [11]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics will release the yield forecast report of field crops for the 2025/26 market season based on farmer surveys on December 4. Before that, the average forecast of interviewed analysts was that the rapeseed production in Canada for the 2025/26 season would be 21.25 million tons, higher than the 20.03 million tons announced by the Bureau in September [11]. - The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) raised the forecast of Australia's rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season by 800,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, higher than the 6.4 million tons in the previous year and 50% higher than the ten - year average [12]. - According to foreign media reports, on December 3, an institution released a commodity research report showing that the soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range between 45.8 million and 48.1 million tons. However, the sowing at the beginning of the season has been continuously delayed, the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt has declined, and the long - term weather outlook is bleak, which deserves attention [12]. - The main field crop yield report released by the Canadian Bureau of Statistics showed that the rapeseed yield per unit area reached a record high. Although the harvested area of rapeseed reported by farmers in 2025 decreased, the timely precipitation in the later season in western Canada helped push the rapeseed yield per unit area in the three prairie provinces to or close to the historical highest level, thus increasing the national yield per unit area to 44.7 bushels per acre. The national rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, exceeding the previous production record set in 2017 [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the soybean meal main contract, the spot price of soybean meal in different regions, the spread between January and May contracts of soybean meal, the net position of managed funds in CBOT, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the crushing profit of US oil mills, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unfulfilled contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [13][16][18]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 2025年12月08日 | 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或跟随偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：涨势放缓关注下游需求 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：弱势延续，基差逻辑回归 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 8 日 棕榈油：等待拐点确认，暂时区间操作 豆油：美豆驱动不足，震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 MPOA：马来西亚 11 月 1-30 日棕榈油产量预估减少 4.38%，其中马来半岛减少 5%，沙巴减少 3.75%，沙捞越减少 3.3%。 ITS：马来西亚 12 月 1-5 日棕榈油出口量为 182785 吨，较上月 ...

农产品早报 2025-12-08 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 上周五 CBOT 大豆下跌，巴西升贴水稳定，上周大豆到港成本窄幅震荡。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东 报 3010 元/吨，上周豆粕成交尚可、提货较好。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上 周压榨大豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天。 杨泽元 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，然而东南部及阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少，产区还未达 到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情， 预计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震 ...