Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on the domestic computing power industry, predicting that 2026 will be a year of significant growth for domestic computing power products [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong demand for AI applications, which is driving the need for increased computing power and capital expenditures (CAPEX) in the industry. The bottleneck in computing power is becoming evident as AI applications proliferate [2][4][6]. - Key companies to watch include Cambricon (寒武纪, 688256) as a representative of domestic computing power card suppliers, and SMIC (中芯国际, 981.HK) as a leading wafer foundry [2]. - The report also suggests focusing on the IC substrate industry due to supply constraints from upstream materials, particularly glass fiber cloth, which is expected to persist until 2027 [3]. - The AI narrative is strengthening, with traditional SaaS software facing challenges as AI tools gain traction in various business applications [4]. - The emergence of personal agents powered by large models is noted, with significant implications for computing power consumption, which is expected to increase dramatically [5]. - The report identifies opportunities in the optical module industry, particularly with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创, 300308) and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), which are well-positioned to benefit from supply chain challenges and increased demand [7]. - The report indicates that the electronic industry is experiencing price increases across various segments due to AI-driven demand and rising raw material costs [8]. - The advanced packaging industry is also highlighted, with domestic companies expected to benefit from increased demand driven by AI investments [9]. Summary by Sections Domestic Computing Power - The report anticipates a significant release of domestic computing power products in 2026, with positive feedback from internet companies regarding the new generation of computing chips [2]. IC Substrate Industry - The report suggests monitoring domestic IC substrate companies that are likely to benefit from price increases due to supply shortages [3]. AI Applications - The report discusses the growing impact of AI applications on traditional software industries and highlights the rapid development of AI tools for various business functions [4]. Personal Agents - The report notes the rise of personal agents and their implications for computing power consumption, predicting a substantial increase in demand for processing capabilities [5]. Optical Module Industry - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the optical module sector, particularly for companies that are strategically positioned to navigate supply chain challenges [7]. Electronic Industry Pricing - The report highlights the trend of price increases in the electronic industry, driven by AI demand and rising material costs [8]. Advanced Packaging - The report indicates a positive outlook for domestic advanced packaging companies, driven by increased demand from AI investments [9].

Overview - The report emphasizes "profit certainty" and "policy resonance" as key themes, indicating a shift in market dynamics from "expectation speculation" to "profit verification" as macro policies and corporate earnings reports converge in March [5][6]. Market Insights - The macro strategy team highlights that the market is currently pricing in a pause from the Federal Reserve in March, with the focus on domestic growth signals becoming clearer as the "Two Sessions" will reveal annual economic targets and fiscal details [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong stock market will likely experience a revaluation in March, driven by passive fund adjustments and a focus on the quality of free cash flow and ROE improvements by long-term institutional investors [5][6]. Key Variables for March - The report identifies three main variables to watch in March: 1. The effectiveness of policy implementation from the "Two Sessions," focusing on GDP growth targets and fiscal measures [6]. 2. Corporate earnings guidance and share buyback activities during the earnings season [6]. 3. The Federal Reserve's guidance on future interest rate cuts, particularly regarding the summer window [6]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" focusing on sectors with profit certainty and policy resonance: 1. **Internet and New Economy Growth**: Emphasis on head internet platforms with low valuations and increased buyback activities, alongside AI applications and smart driving assets [7]. 2. **Hard Technology and Overseas Manufacturing**: Focus on high visibility in semiconductor processes and equipment, as well as resilient demand in engineering machinery and appliances [7]. 3. **Global Pricing of Upstream Resources**: Metals like gold, copper, and aluminum are highlighted as inflation hedges amid global manufacturing recovery [7]. 4. **Low-Volatility Dividend Assets**: Telecom operators and core hydropower assets are noted for their defensive value [7]. Company-Specific Insights - **Cheung Kong Property Trust (778HK)**: Target price of 5.92 HKD with an 8.8% upside, driven by stable earnings and high dividend yield [10][11]. - **NVIDIA (NVDAUS)**: Target price of 260 USD with a 40.6% upside, supported by strong demand for AI chips and a robust supply chain [13][15]. - **Broadcom (AVGOUS)**: Target price of 460 USD with a 43.0% upside, driven by anticipated growth in AI revenue [23][25]. - **Xpeng Motors (9868HK)**: Target price of 134.69 HKD with a 97.1% upside, driven by new vehicle launches and overseas expansion [30][35]. - **Sihuan Pharmaceutical (2096HK)**: Target price of 16.40 HKD with a 32.3% upside, supported by new product launches and strong revenue growth [37][39]. - **Pop Mart (9992HK)**: Target price of 401.60 HKD with a 74.8% upside, focusing on IP platform strategy and overseas market growth [43][45]. - **China Resources Power (836HK)**: Target price of 21.50 HKD with a 12.7% upside, driven by renewable energy growth and stable dividend yield [48][50].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company is actively expanding in multiple sectors including photovoltaics, semiconductors, and humanoid robotics, with expectations for accelerated progress across these fields [2][4] - The company holds a 22% stake in Suzhou Minghao and is focusing on developing pressure sensor products [2] - Profit forecasts indicate that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 0.80 billion, CNY 0.99 billion, and CNY 1.20 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing growth rates of 9%, 23%, and 21% respectively [2] Financial Summary - The projected operating revenue for the company is CNY 5.638 billion in 2024, with a forecasted decline to CNY 3.989 billion in 2025, followed by a recovery to CNY 4.199 billion in 2026 and CNY 4.662 billion in 2027, reflecting changes of +38%, -29%, +5%, and +11% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decrease to CNY 0.074 billion in 2024, then increase to CNY 0.080 billion in 2025, CNY 0.099 billion in 2026, and CNY 0.120 billion in 2027, with respective growth rates of -52%, +9%, +23%, and +21% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to remain stable at CNY 0.1 from 2024 to 2026, and increase to CNY 0.15 in 2027 [3]

Report Information - Report Title: 2026 March Macroeconomic Monthly Report [2] - Release Date: March 2, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Wang Jing [2] - Analyst Certificate Number: F0235424/Z0000771 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In February, global capital markets continued to be volatile due to disputes over AI investment, the resurgence of the Trump tariff issue, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the rise of Chinese robots during the Spring Festival, and German Chancellor Merz's visit to China. The domestic market was in a state of weak reality and weak expectations, with the market oscillating and correcting. Investors are looking forward to the Two Sessions in early March [4][27]. - The controversy over AI investment has led to significant fluctuations in related asset prices. The market's debate on AI bubbleization has reached a fever pitch. Investors need to carefully select individual stocks. The final reversal of the bubble narrative will depend on the actual breakthroughs in large - model commercialization, the improvement of the input - output ratio, and changes in macro - liquidity. Before that, market volatility may become the norm [6][17]. - Trump's tariff issue has resurfaced, and the US foreign trade policy has become more complex. The new tariff system has different impacts on different countries, and the real game will take place in subsequent industry investigations and high - level Sino - US dialogues [20][22]. - From a statistical perspective, the South China Commodity Index has a relatively high probability of falling in March. Coupled with the sudden outbreak and expansion of the US - Iran war, investors need to strengthen risk management [7][40]. Summary by Directory Global Capital Market Performance - Volatility Index VIX: After sharp fluctuations, it ended up rising [4][27]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver first declined and then rose, ending up rising [4][27]. - Global Stock Markets: Gains and losses were mixed. Stock indices in Japan and South Korea led the gains, while those in China and the US declined. The BDI index slightly decreased [4][27]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar rebounded with fluctuations, non - US currencies slightly weakened, and the Australian dollar rose strongly [4][27]. - Commodities: Most commodities ended up rising. The strength of soybeans drove up agricultural product prices, and non - ferrous metals remained strong but showed internal differentiation [4][27]. Domestic Futures Market Performance - Stock Indices: Most of the four major stock indices ended up rising. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, and the divergence in overseas AI investment hindered sector rotation in the stock market [5][33]. - Treasury Bond Futures: All treasury bond futures ended up rising slightly, maintaining a structure where short - term bonds were weaker and long - term bonds were stronger [5][33]. - Commodities: After reaching a high and then falling, commodities oscillated and recovered, with internal differentiation continuing. Precious metals' sharp decline dragged down the overall performance of the commodity index. The agricultural sector was stronger than the industrial sector [5][33]. AI Investment Dispute - Market Sensitivity: A fictional "AI Doomsday Report" caused a short - term sharp drop in US stocks, while technology giants continued to make huge investments [6][17]. - Different Views: The short side believes that AI has a large bubble, with risks such as over - valuation and potential systemic collapse. The long side believes that AI's prosperity is firmly supported by national strategies and strong corporate earnings [17][18]. Trump Tariff Issue - Policy Changes: The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's previous tariff - imposing actions were illegal. Trump's administration then imposed a 10% ad - valorem temporary import surcharge on all trading partners, which was later raised to 15% [21]. - Impact on Different Countries: For China, the weighted average tariff rate decreased, which was a marginal positive in the short term. For countries like the UK and Australia, the actual tariff rate increased, reshaping the export competitiveness of various countries to the US [22]. Global Economic Performance - Economic Prosperity: Global economic prosperity improved, with the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI, Services PMI, and Manufacturing PMI all recovering. However, there were significant differences between regions [52]. - Inflation: Inflation in many countries accelerated its decline, and inflation expectations dropped rapidly. The overall inflation level basically returned to the long - term average range [59]. - Financial Conditions: The Federal Reserve started expanding its balance sheet, the Bank of Japan's balance - sheet contraction bottomed out, and the People's Bank of China and the European Central Bank jointly expanded their balance sheets. Global bond yields generally fell from high levels [69]. - US Economy: The US manufacturing sector rebounded significantly, inflation declined, employment data was good, and consumer confidence rebounded [73]. China's Economic Performance - Economic Prosperity: The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.2%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant cooling of the manufacturing industry [79]. - Macro - liquidity: M2 growth continued to rebound, M1 growth stopped falling and rebounded, and the growth rate gap between M2 and M1 narrowed slightly. The growth rate of RMB loans accelerated to the bottom, and the deposit - loan gap of financial institutions continued to widen [82]. - External Demand: China's export growth remained strong, but export prices were low. Import prices stopped rising and started to fall, while export prices showed signs of bottoming out [95]. - Domestic Demand - Investment: The real estate sector continued to decline, with many indicators turning negative, especially the accelerating decline in sales area and real - estate development growth rate [98]. - Domestic Demand - Consumption: Consumption growth continued to decline, travel data showed a seasonal decline, and residents' income growth slowed down [107]. - Inflation: CPI growth slowed down, PPI continued to be negative but showed a rebound, and the CPI - PPI spread further narrowed [112]. - Mid - level Industries: Steel prices were weak, and blast - furnace operating rates were low. Crude oil prices continued to rebound, and inventories started to decline. Copper prices were strong and inventories increased. Coking coal prices remained low and stable [116].

贝塔国际证券 BETA INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES 期权策略向导功能＠ 使用简介 助你快速理清期权交易思路 键筛选出符合策略的期权 个页面对比多个期权机会 SHE 更用教程 第1步：进入标的美股页面，点击【期权】按钮。 . 11:28 LTE NVDA 英伟达 < 已收盘 02.23 19:59:50 美东 418.61 行情 全景 财务 191 '250 ... 州 +0.91% 今日成交额 Top 3 最高 今开 换手率 市盈率 TTM 0.73% : 46.92 193.950 191.400 最低 昨收 成交额 总市值 189.820 328.34 亿 4.65 万亿 : 189.575 盘后 ① 191.930 +0.380 (+0.20%) 19:59:50 美东 延迟 √ ■ Nvidia 将公布第四财季业绩 分析师料出货量成季绩增长动力 2026 财年第 4 季度业绩披露 2026.02.25 (美东) 盘后 5日 日 K 團 K 月 K 年K 盘后v 1分 v 均价:191.567 192.035 +0.25% .705 盘后 191.375 -0.09% ≥16:00 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the shift towards "HALO trading" in both US and A-share markets, moving away from high-valuation tech stocks to lower-valuation, asset-heavy sectors due to concerns over tech valuations and potential AI disruptions [2][5][6] - The report identifies "HALO assets" as a strategic choice for long-term investors who prefer stability over chasing tech stocks, highlighting the importance of selecting high-quality investments within this category [6][7] - It suggests two investment strategies: offensive and defensive HALO approaches, allowing investors to diversify their portfolios while managing risk [6][7] A-share HALO Trading - A-share HALO assets are characterized by their cyclical, stable, and heavy manufacturing nature, which become attractive when their valuation advantages are clear [6] - The report advises careful selection within HALO investments, focusing on those with strong cash flows and solid long-term barriers to entry [6] Fund Grouping Perspective - The report outlines two strategies for fund grouping: defensive selections with low correlation to mainline stocks and offensive selections targeting sectors with potential growth catalysts [6] - Historical data indicates that a three-year investment horizon can yield significant excess returns when following these strategies [6] Configuration Directions - Offensive HALO investments include sectors benefiting from price increases and international expansion, such as agricultural chemicals, high-end manufacturing, and brokerage firms [7] - Defensive HALO investments focus on industries with low holdings, such as coal and construction, and sectors with low correlation to technology, like petrochemicals [7] Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks, including TCL Electronics, ShouLiu Hotel, Anjui Food, Muyuan Foods, Qibin Group, New Town Holdings, COSCO Shipping Energy, Daimai Co., Chipone Technology, and Lenovo Group, highlighting their potential for growth [3][4]

Core Conclusions - In the fourth week of February, a total net inflow of 45.3 billion yuan was recorded, reversing the previous week's outflow of 72.8 billion yuan [1][7] - Short-term sentiment indicators are at a mid-high level since 2005, while long-term sentiment indicators are at a mid-low level [1][2] - From an industry perspective, the highest trading volume share in the past week was seen in defense and military, communication, and semiconductor sectors [1][2] Market Trends - The total net inflow of funds amounted to 45.3 billion yuan, with a financing balance increase of 79.5 billion yuan, public fund issuance up by 0.9 billion yuan, ETF net redemption of 18 billion yuan, and an estimated net inflow of 2.1 billion yuan from northbound funds [7] - On the outflow side, IPO financing was 1.7 billion yuan, industrial capital net reduction was 7.8 billion yuan, and transaction fees totaled 9.6 billion yuan [7] Short-term Sentiment Indicators - The recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) was 501%, placing it at the 84th percentile historically [11][14] - The recent weekly financing transaction ratio was 10.04%, currently at the 76th percentile historically [11][14] Long-term Sentiment Indicators - The recent A-share risk premium (the inverse of the overall A-share PE minus the yield of ten-year government bonds) was 2.43%, at the 46th percentile historically [2][13] - The recent dividend yield of the CSI 300 index (excluding financials) compared to the yield of ten-year government bonds was 1.21, at the 6th percentile historically [2][13] Industry Analysis - The top three industries by trading volume share in the past week were defense and military (99%), communication (98%), and semiconductor (98%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), pharmaceutical biology (0%), and banking (1%) [2][13] - The highest financing transaction ratio industries were machinery equipment (92%), electric power equipment (85%), and social services (82%), while the lowest were comprehensive (12%), coal (18%), and oil and petrochemicals (20%) [2][13]

Core Viewpoint - The differentiation among technology stocks is just beginning as AI starts to threaten the software itself, marking a shift from a speculative AI boom to a more nuanced evaluation of AI beneficiaries and victims in the market [2][3][16]. Market Dynamics - Since February, the Nasdaq Composite Index has declined over 4%, with AI-related tech stocks being the primary focus of capital withdrawal. This adjustment is not merely a risk aversion but a structural shift in how the market values AI-related companies [3][5]. - The recent sell-off is seen as a correction of overvalued stocks and a re-evaluation of the value distribution within the AI industry chain [5][14]. Investment Opportunities - Companies like NVIDIA, despite recent pullbacks, are viewed as opportunities due to significant capital expenditures from major players like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google, which are projected to reach approximately $850 billion this year, a nearly 30% increase from 2025 [7]. - The demand for high-performance GPUs continues to grow, driven by the expansion of multimodal large models and sovereign AI projects, indicating that the need for computational power is far from peaking [7][8]. Structural Changes in Business Models - The focus is shifting from general AI concepts to specific segments within the AI value chain, with upstream manufacturers and essential suppliers maintaining valuation premiums, while downstream application companies face significant valuation compression [8][11]. - The SaaS model is under pressure as AI technologies may reduce the need for traditional software licenses, leading to a potential decline in demand for SaaS products [10][11]. Market Segmentation - The storage chip sector, represented by companies like Micron Technology and Western Digital, has seen significant gains (over 70% this year) due to the increased demand for high-bandwidth storage driven by AI workloads [13]. - The market is unlikely to revalue software and data-intensive industries unless there is sustained performance resilience or significant valuation discounts observed [13][14]. Future Outlook - The current landscape indicates that companies with hard asset characteristics and pricing power will thrive, while traditional SaaS companies may struggle to adapt to the new AI-driven environment [14][16]. - The differentiation within the tech sector is expected to become more pronounced, with AI reshaping production relationships and creating clear winners and losers among technology stocks [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that AI is transitioning from cloud computing to terminal devices, marking a significant structural change in the technology industry by 2026 [2][6][16]. Group 1: AI Hardware Era - The Mobile World Congress (MWC) 2026 will focus on the deep integration of AI and communication, signaling the arrival of the AI hardware era [4][6]. - The global AI server market is projected to exceed $150 billion by the end of 2025, but growth is slowing, indicating a shift in focus from cloud computing to terminal devices [6][8]. - By 2026, it is expected that the penetration rate of AI in smartphones will reach 55%, and 45% for AI PCs, indicating a significant increase in local AI processing capabilities [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Focus Shift - Investors should shift their focus from upstream companies like TSMC and NVIDIA to downstream brand manufacturers and component suppliers as AI moves to terminal devices [8]. - The transition to terminal devices represents the final mile in the AI business loop, emphasizing the importance of hardware in the AI ecosystem [8][18]. Group 3: Differentiated Approaches in China and the U.S. - The U.S. approach emphasizes "chip + system integration," with companies like Apple enhancing AI capabilities through self-developed chips, while China's approach focuses on "model-driven hardware" [10][11]. - Chinese companies are rapidly launching AI smartphones and AIoT devices, leveraging their advantages in diverse scenarios and fast iteration [11][12]. Group 4: Conditions for Success - For AI hardware to replicate the success of the iPhone, three conditions must be met: stable and frequently usable model capabilities, a balance between processing power and energy consumption, and the formation of an application ecosystem [13][15]. - The average selling price (ASP) of the first AI smartphones is expected to be 15%-20% higher than that of regular flagship models, indicating a willingness among consumers to pay for AI features [15][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the hardware war is a critical area of focus for investors, as the shift from cloud to terminal devices will redefine wealth distribution in the tech industry [18][19]. - The ability to create products that genuinely address user pain points and achieve a commercial loop will determine the winners in this evolving landscape [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by NVIDIA as it transitions from a dominant player in the GPU market to exploring new growth avenues, particularly in the telecommunications sector with AI-RAN architecture, amidst concerns of a potential slowdown in AI demand and market valuation pressures [2][6][17]. Group 1: Market Dynamics and NVIDIA's Position - NVIDIA has experienced a significant valuation leap, driven by a near-monopoly in AI chip supply, but the market is now questioning its future growth potential beyond GPUs [6][7]. - The company is facing a "success paradox," where its clients are becoming competitors by developing their own AI chips, which could compress NVIDIA's profit margins [7][8]. - Concerns about a "platform ceiling" are emerging, as the market fears that AI model training demand may stabilize post-2026, challenging NVIDIA's growth trajectory [8][12]. Group 2: Strategic Moves and Future Outlook - NVIDIA's collaboration with telecom giants like Nokia and Cisco to advance AI-RAN architecture signifies a strategic pivot towards redefining its role from a chip supplier to an infrastructure re-builder [4][9]. - The shift towards AI in telecommunications is seen as a potential new growth narrative, with the company aiming to control the AI infrastructure of future networks [10][11]. - The telecommunications sector represents a massive market opportunity, with annual capital expenditures around $300 billion, where even a small shift towards AI-native architectures could yield significant returns for NVIDIA [10][15]. Group 3: Investment Implications - The article highlights three key signals for investors: the recognition of single-track risks, the extension of AI infrastructure competition to the network edge, and the shift in valuation focus from GPU shipments to platform control [14][15]. - NVIDIA's ability to become the "default AI foundation" for global communication networks could redefine its market position, but failure to do so may lead to valuation corrections [15][17]. - The company's proactive approach in seeking new revenue sources amidst high valuation pressures is crucial for maintaining its growth narrative in the eyes of investors [17].