Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining (001203.SZ) clarified on the investor interaction platform that the Hongqi Grand Bridge of the Maluokang Shuangjiangkou Hydropower Station is not the transportation channel for the ore from the Sichuan Jiada Lithium Mine [1] Group 1 - Dazhong Mining provided clarification regarding the infrastructure related to its operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global copper market is experiencing a supply-driven "tight balance" in 2025, with prices expected to rise above $11,000 per ton, heavily influenced by demand from China [1] Supply Side Summary - Mining accidents, floods, and equipment failures have significantly impacted global copper supply, with the Grasberg mine in Indonesia delaying 4% of global production until 2027 due to a landslide [1] - The total supply gap for 2025 and 2026 has been revised upward to 800,000 tons, with 600,000 tons of refined copper shortage expected in 2026 [1] - The decline in ore grades in Chile and other mining disruptions have compounded supply issues, leading to a "domino effect" in global mining supply [1] Trade Flow Summary - U.S. refined copper imports surged over 50% year-on-year from January to August, driven by traders anticipating tariffs, resulting in a 300% increase in COMEX inventory, reaching a historical high of over 400,000 tons [1] - In contrast, LME and SHFE inventories have been declining, with global observable stocks outside the U.S. dropping to under 500,000 tons, a two-and-a-half-year low [1] Demand Side Summary - The Chinese real estate sector remains weak, affecting copper demand for construction, but other sectors like electric grids, renewable energy, and appliances are experiencing double-digit growth [2] - High copper prices have led to a "fear of heights" sentiment among downstream users, with the Yangshan copper premium dropping to its lowest since July, and an unusual increase in refined copper exports from China in October [2] - The processing fees (TC/RC) in China have plummeted to a historical low of negative $60, highlighting the conflict between mining shortages and soaring smelting capacity [2] Price Outlook Summary - ING projects the average price of London copper in 2026 to be $11,500 per ton, with prices expected to rise to $12,000 in the second quarter due to inventory overflow effects [3] - The price may moderate in the second half of the year depending on tariff developments, with potential price declines if tariffs are waived and inventory flows back into the market [3] - Long-term demand for copper is expected to be supported by electrification, renewable energy, and data center infrastructure, although the market will face volatility between supply challenges and hesitant demand in 2026 [3]

1.贵州：拟加快推动白酒出口 《贵州省促进白酒销售若干措施（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。其中提出，实施白酒出口战略。加快推 动白酒出口，制定相关支持政策，培育出口企业梯队，利用好贵州省国际友城和友好地区及侨务资源和市 场，发展出口伙伴，拓展海外销售渠道，支持白酒产品进入海外华人社区、超市、餐馆和中资企业在外职 工食堂。 3.华为2012实验室新成立基础大模型部 《科创板日报》9日讯，《科创板日报》独家获悉，华为2012实验室已经成立基础大模型部，专注于推进基 座模型开发。此前，华为曾发布AI人才招募令，面向全球招募具备卓越学术背景和创新精神的年轻科研人 才，拥有原创性科研成果的候选人将被优先考虑。 点评：集中攻坚根技术，构筑AI时代自主核心底座。 4.京东回应："随心囤"短暂出现系统故障，平台将承担全部损失 京东方面回应称，"随心囤"短暂出现了系统故障，在快速修复系统故障期间，许多用户主动退回了优惠券， 京东将联系致谢这些用户，并送上心意。因平台责任已出餐的商家，平台也将承担全部损失。 5.杰富瑞：支撑金价走势的主要宏观因素预料将延续至明年，首选巴里克矿业 点评：白酒出海加速，黔酒国际化迎政策东风。 2.银河 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of tungsten has seen significant fluctuations, with a notable increase of 147% year-to-date, reaching a high of 351,000 CNY per ton by December 5, indicating a bullish outlook for tungsten prices in the coming years [1] Company Summary - Jaxin International Resources (03858) experienced a stock price increase of 5.25%, reaching 37.68 HKD with a trading volume of 12.7965 million HKD [1] - The company is set to commence commercial production at its Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan in April 2025, with planned production of 3,638 tons, 10,900 tons, and 13,665 tons of tungsten concentrate in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - The Bakuta tungsten mine is projected to contribute 4%, 7%, and 8% to global tungsten supply from 2025 to 2027 [1] Industry Summary - Since March, the price of tungsten concentrate in China has risen from 142,000 CNY per ton to a peak of 288,000 CNY per ton by September 10, before stabilizing around 267,000 CNY [1] - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight over the next 3-5 years, with Kazakhstan and South Korea anticipated to be the main contributors to supply growth [1] - The bullish trend in tungsten prices is supported by strategic actions from various countries regarding tungsten resources [1]

每日经济新闻 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 平安证券指出，2026年工业金属行业面临供应约束强化与需求弹性释放的双重驱动。上游资源端及中游 冶炼产能扰动持续，新能源需求韧性叠加AI等新兴产业打开远期增长极，宽松货币环境有望推动宏观 与基本面共振。有色金属方面，美元信用弱化及美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格，黄金货币属性持续计 价；工业金属中铜、铝、锡等品种受资源约束、电力扰动及海外政策收紧影响，供需趋紧或推升价格中 枢。能源金属中锂、钴伴随主产国供给出清结束及储能需求增长，基本面改善显著。整体来看，弱美 元、供给收缩与新兴需求构成行业核心驱动。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及贵金属、工业金属等 矿产资源开发及相关产业的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属行业上市公司证券的整体 ...

Group 1 - Russia has implemented two significant policies: a complete ban on gold bar exports and a reduction of the personal gold carrying limit to 100 grams, while extending the ban on "unfriendly countries" from buying and selling shares in core Russian enterprises until the end of 2027 [1][3][5] - The restriction on gold exports is a strategic move to retain this critical asset amid increasing Western sanctions and financial instability, ensuring that Russia maintains a strong financial foundation for potential future crises [3][5] - The 100-gram limit for personal gold transport effectively prevents large-scale transfers while accommodating the needs of ordinary citizens, showcasing the precision of the policy design [5][7] Group 2 - The extension of the foreign investment ban is crucial for protecting Russia's economic lifeline, targeting strategic sectors such as energy, finance, and mining, which are vital to the country's economy [5][9] - The policy is not a blanket restriction; it includes provisions for presidential special permits and exceptions, allowing for flexibility while maintaining essential safeguards [7][9] - Russia's ability to implement these measures is supported by its status as a major gold producer, ensuring that domestic needs are met without disrupting internal economic cycles [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market demand for black building materials is weak, with steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal all showing downward or weakening trends [1][3][5][7] - For steel, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates need improvement through production cuts [1] - Iron ore is facing a situation where supply may increase and demand is weakening, and the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions may lead to price pressure [3] - The demand for coking coal and coke is soft, and the price of coking coal is falling, while the price of coke is under downward pressure [5][6] - The thermal coal market is also weak, with falling prices at the mine mouth and in ports, and a supply - demand pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3079 yuan/ton and 3252 yuan/ton respectively. The spot market has weak trading, with poor speculative sentiment and mainly low - price terminal purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with declining consumption and production, and reduced inventory pressure. The supply - demand of plates needs improvement through production cuts to reduce seasonal inventory pressure. With the arrival of the off - season for building materials, attention should be paid to the impact on fundamentals and the changes in production cuts and profits [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore is weak. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume in major ports is 113.7 million tons, a 1.25% increase from the previous period [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply has slightly increased this week. High prices may stimulate supply, but some inventories are locked. Demand is weakening, with a decline in daily average pig iron production and seasonal decline expectations. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and price pressure may occur if external factors are removed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are falling. The demand for coke in some regions is weak due to blast furnace maintenance, and the price of coking coal at the mine mouth is continuously falling. The price of imported Mongolian coal has also declined, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropping to about 970 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The trading of coking coal is weak, and the supply - demand structure of coke is relatively loose. The price of coke is under downward pressure due to the weak cost side. Attention should be paid to the impact of autumn - winter environmental protection on enterprises and coal price trends [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to trade in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The prices of thermal coal at the mine mouth in the main production areas are falling. The market demand is weak, with terminal demand - based procurement and traders having a bearish outlook. The port market is also weak, with rising inventories and difficult trading. The prices of both domestic and imported coal are falling, and imported coal has a cost - performance advantage [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price is in a range - bound state. In the long - term, the supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in China's iron ore imports for 2025, highlighting a "low first, high later" trajectory influenced by extreme weather and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Import Trends - In the first half of 2025, China's iron ore imports are expected to decline due to extreme weather, with major mining companies experiencing a significant drop in import volumes [1]. - Starting from the third quarter, the shipping volumes from the four major mining companies are gradually returning to normal, leading to a continuous increase in iron ore imports from June to October 2025 [1]. - In September 2025, iron ore imports increased by 11.7% year-on-year, reaching a historical monthly high, while in October, imports of iron ore and its concentrates totaled 11.131 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite strong iron ore imports this year, stock levels at major Chinese ports are above seasonal averages but still below 2024 levels, indicating a complex market situation [1]. - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that the declining profit margins of Chinese steel mills and low crude steel production are contributing to downward pressure on iron ore prices [1]. - A recent ban on certain supplies from BHP Group has temporarily supported prices, but its potential lifting could lead to an influx of products into the market, exacerbating downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The current rise in iron ore prices is attributed to speculative trading and capital market activities rather than genuine demand, according to the China Mineral Resources Research Institute [3]. - Accumulating port inventories and persistently weak actual demand are expected to exert substantial pressure on price increases, indicating that reliance on short-term speculation is insufficient to drive long-term price trends [3]. - Industry participants are advised to discern market signals rationally and remain cautious of prices deviating from actual supply and demand conditions to avoid following trends blindly [3].

1. Market Performance Overnight Stock Indices - US major stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 47560.29 points, the S&P 500 down 0.09% at 6840.51 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 23576.49 points [5] - European major stock indices also closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.45% at 24153.3 points, the French CAC40 down 0.69% at 8052.51 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.03% at 9642.01 points [6] Bond Yields - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2 - year yield up 4.80 basis points to 3.615%, the 3 - year up 4.84 basis points to 3.652%, the 5 - year up 4.73 basis points to 3.788%, the 10 - year up 2.35 basis points to 4.188%, and the 30 - year up 0.81 basis points to 4.809% [6] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.45% at $4236.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.72% at $61.16 per ounce. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.61% to $62.11 per barrel [6] - London base metals all declined, with LME aluminum down 1.47% at $2845.50 per ton, LME copper down 1.42% at $11470.00 per ton, etc. [8] 2. Important Macroeconomic News China - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's commitment to open - cooperation, stating confidence in achieving annual economic goals, with the economy set to maintain a stable and positive trend [10] Australia - RBA Governor Bullock highlighted upside inflation risks, stating that inflation and employment data will be crucial for the February meeting. The possibility of tightening policy was discussed, and a data - driven approach will be taken for future rate decisions [10] US - ADP's weekly employment report showed that private - sector employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22 [10] 3. Futures Market News Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 5, 2025, polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 45.65 million tons, down 2.99 million tons from the previous period, a 6.14% decrease. Chinese polyethylene import warehouse inventory decreased by 6.59% month - on - month and 9.83% year - on - year [13] - Iraq set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil for North and South America in January at a $1.15 discount to the Argus sour crude price, and for Asia at a $1.05 discount to the Oman/Dubai average price [13] - EIA's short - term energy outlook report predicted US crude oil production to be 13.85 million barrels per day in December, 13.86 million in November, and 13.71 million in January [14] Metal Futures - Chongqing launched a yellow alert for heavy pollution on December 9, affecting some recycled aluminum enterprises, which have started to reduce production or shut down [17] - A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [17] Black - Series Futures - The General Administration of Market Supervision issued production license implementation rules for 24 industrial products, effective April 1, 2026 [20] - HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan per ton, lower than the November price. The purchase volume was 14700 tons, also lower than in November [20] - Coking enterprises agreed to implement production cuts of at least 30% to ease supply pressure and stabilize prices, and to reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal [20] - The Henan Bureau of National Mine Safety Supervision ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [21] - The China Iron and Steel Association warned that the recent rise in iron ore prices is due to capital speculation, and the high inventory and weak demand will suppress price increases [21] Agricultural Futures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' December report on China's agricultural product supply - demand situation showed that the outlook for soybeans remained unchanged from November. High - protein soybeans in Northeast China are in short supply, while low - protein soybeans have a surplus [23] - As of December 7, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 90.3%, and the first - crop corn sowing rate was 71.3% [24] - China's imported soybean arrivals in December are expected to decline slightly. As of December 6, the average oil - mill operating rate was 57.42%, down 4.79% from the previous week [24] - Argentina reduced export taxes on soybeans, soybean by - products, wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum [25] - Brazil's expected exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and corn in December are 3.33 million tons, 1.83 million tons, and 6.3 million tons respectively, higher than previous forecasts [25] - The USDA maintained its forecast for US 2025/2026 soybean production at 4.253 billion bushels, ending stocks at 290 million bushels, and yield at 53 bushels per acre. It also kept the forecasts for Argentina and Brazil's soybean production unchanged [26] 4. Financial Market News Stock Markets - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3909.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61%. Resource and Hainan - related stocks declined, while CPO concepts and some other sectors strengthened [28] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.29% to 25434.23 points, with losses in sectors such as non - ferrous metals and semiconductors [28] - As of now, 1465 A - share listed companies have conducted share repurchases this year, with a total repurchase amount of 140.538 billion yuan. About 80% of these stocks have risen this year, and about 81.91% were profitable in the first three quarters [28] - Many state - owned banks have announced and implemented mid - year dividend plans, with the total cash dividend of the six major state - owned banks expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [29] - 23 listed securities firms have implemented mid - year dividends this year, with a total of 10.683 billion yuan distributed. Another 14 have announced plans to distribute 11.133 billion yuan [29] - In 2025, institutional research on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased significantly, with over 95% of companies being surveyed. YiFangDa Fund is authorized to launch an ETF tracking the HKEX Technology 100 Index [30] Overseas News - The UNCTAD reported that global trade will grow by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record $35 trillion [35] - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut. Trump said he would support a large - scale rate cut and might adjust tariffs [35] - ADP data showed that US private employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four weeks of job losses. US job openings in October were 7.67 million, exceeding expectations [36] - Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready for elections and requests assistance from the US and Europe. The elections can be prepared within 60 - 90 days [37] - The Swiss government withdrew an incorrect announcement about the US tariff cut on Swiss goods. The Bank of Japan will gradually adjust monetary policy, and the RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.60% [37] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices closed mixed, with some large - cap stocks leading the decline. Japan's IPO financing reached the highest level since 2018, and Medline plans to raise up to $5.37 billion through an IPO [40] - SpaceX plans an IPO in mid - to - late 2026, depending on market conditions [42] Commodities - Precious metals rose, while oil prices fell due to concerns about increased US production and expected supply surplus in 2026. Base metals declined, and iron ore prices are under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [43] - EIA's report adjusted the price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil in 2025 and 2026 [44] - Russia's November crude oil production was over 100,000 barrels per day below the target, the largest gap in over two years [46] Bonds - The domestic bond market recovered, with bond yields falling and futures prices rising. US Treasury yields rose due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and inflation [47] Forex - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 20 basis points to 7.0693 at 16:30, and the US dollar index rose 0.14%. Non - US currencies mostly declined, except for the Australian dollar and the offshore RMB [48] 5. Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events Economic Indicators - Key indicators to be released include Japan's December Reuters Tankan index, China's November CPI/PPI, etc. [51] Events - Key events include the expiration of 793 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in China, speeches by central bank governors, and rate decisions by the Bank of Canada, etc. [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors including policy, economic data, and international events. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors are advised to pay attention to specific events and data changes in each sector [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver rose sharply above the $60 mark, mainly boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the precious metals have fully priced in the rate cuts, so over - chasing the rise is not recommended [1][13]. - Investment advice: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting to land. Gold will show a volatile trend, and silver may face a risk of high - level decline, with increased market volatility [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Hasset's statement that the Fed has a large space for interest - rate cuts implies an unexpected easing, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in a volatile manner [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job openings reached a five - month high, but the employment market still shows a weakening trend, and the US economy continues to face downward pressure. The market has fully priced in the December rate cut, and the market has become cautious before the interest - rate meeting [20]. - Investment advice: The three major stock indexes will fluctuate at high levels. Pay attention to the callback risk after the short - term profit - taking after the interest - rate meeting [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has corrected, mainly affected by policies. The Political Bureau meeting emphasizes cross - cycle adjustment, and the stock market expectations have been revised down. The more detailed deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference is worth attention [22][24]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The market sentiment has improved, and treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The bond market is entering a mild recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continued to fluctuate and decline. The market is weak due to the lack of obvious policy increments in the Political Bureau meeting and the weakening of cost support from the decline of coking coal and coke prices. Short - term steel prices still have the risk of decline [27]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and decline. Adopt an overall volatile thinking [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 5 increased, but the data cannot represent the overall December production. The market is waiting for the MPOB report. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to gradually ease in December [29]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the MPOB November report. After the report is released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract on dips [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The near - month main contract of hogs rose rapidly and showed a high - level shock. However, the short - term supply pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and there is still a risk of price decline [31]. - Investment advice: Consider lightly shorting the near - month contract; treat the far - month contract with a short - term range thinking and control position risks [31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch prices are stable. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term inventory pressure of starch remains acceptable [32][34]. - Investment advice: Maintain range operation for the rice - flour price difference [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - After the rumor of the reserve auction, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price continued to decline. The impact of the reserve auction is expected to be limited [35]. - Investment advice: The decline of spot and 01 contracts is expected to be limited, while 03 and 05 contracts may be weaker. Pay attention to policy regulation and expected differences [36]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang is weak. The demand for power plant stockpiling has weakened, and the coal price has fallen rapidly with the accumulation of inventory. If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year [37]. - Investment advice: If it is a warm winter, the coal price pressure may last until January next year. Pay attention to daily consumption and port inventory [38]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices weakened with the overall black fundamentals. The port inventory is rising, and the iron - making molten iron output is expected to decline. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [39]. - Investment advice: The iron - making molten iron output is expected to fall to around 2.28 million tons from the end of December to early January. The overall ore price is expected to decline slightly [40]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME and SHFE lead prices fluctuated and declined. There is still a risk of delivery. The demand side is strong, and the fundamentals of lead remain strong. Observe the volume of delivery [41]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, stop profit for short - term long positions and observe the delivery volume; for arbitrage, wait and see [41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc prices fluctuated and corrected. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the supply decreased significantly. The demand for zinc may increase marginally. High - level partial profit - taking is recommended for long positions [42]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, partially stop profit for long positions to avoid macro - level fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the long - short spread position and wait and see for the internal - external spread [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A polysilicon platform company was registered. The fundamentals of polysilicon are not optimistic, but the spot price may be difficult to fall further. Pay attention to the price adjustment [43][44][46]. - Investment advice: The spot price may be difficult to fall. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the futures market after the discount to the spot price, and consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [46]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not optimistic. There is a short - term buying support, but there is a lack of upward drive. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals are worse than expected. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting on rebounds [48]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Pay attention to the Fed's and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decisions. The price of nickel iron is expected to rise slightly, and the short - term bottom of the pure nickel price has been reached. [49][50] - Investment advice: Unilaterally, consider lightly going long on dips. Pay attention to the change of the Indonesian nickel ore price and the RKAB approval limit [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global key mineral competition will reshape the 2026 market pattern. The short - term macro - level risk aversion sentiment suppresses copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term [51][53]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, wait patiently for the opportunity to go long on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [55]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown signed a supply agreement with Tianhua New Energy. The current supply - side impact is controllable, but future supply - side disturbances should be vigilant. The real - side situation may weaken in the short term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Lightly short on highs in the short term, and consider going long on dips after the risk of the off - season decline is released [58]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of overseas tin ore is unstable, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and be cautious about the risk of high - level decline [61]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips, but do not chase the rise. Be cautious about the price decline caused by the easing of geopolitical unrest or capital outflows [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA slightly raised the forecast of US crude oil production this year and lowered the forecast for next year. Oil prices are in a weak and volatile state [63][64]. - Investment advice: Maintain a volatile trend in the short term [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a short - term shock. The impact of the carry - over policy may be more emotional than substantial. Enterprises in need can buy on dips [66][67]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will fluctuate in the short term [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price is in a low - level shock. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the coal price decline also drags down the PVC price. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve [69][70]. - Investment advice: The PVC price will maintain a low - level shock pattern. Chasing short is not cost - effective [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is partially declining. The supply is high, the demand is not significantly improved, and the overall supply - demand is still loose. The short - term price may continue to be weak [71][72]. - Investment advice: The short - term price may continue to be weak. Pay attention to whether the profit compression can lead to supply reduction [72]. 3.2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The tender of the largest port in Brazil is unfavorable to Maersk and MSC. The demand has improved in the peak season, but the freight rate increase may be weak. The short - term price may decline in a volatile manner [73][74]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a weak - volatile thinking in the short term and wait and see [74].