Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term volatility, medium - term volatility and weakness, and intraday volatility and strength. It is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend on Monday [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2506 contract shows a volatile trend [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2506 contract shows a volatile and weak trend [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2506 contract shows a volatile and strong trend [1]. 3.2 Price and Market Conditions - On the night of last Friday, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures first rose and then fell. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract slightly closed down 0.26% to 492.6 yuan/barrel [5]. 3.3 Core Logic - Kazakhstan, which promised compensatory production cuts, stated that its oil production is determined by national interests and it is not an OPEC+ oil - producing country. This makes the market further confirm that compensatory production cuts by over - producing OPEC+ countries are difficult to implement. There are also long - short differences in the short - term crude oil market [5].

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

G20财长会议上，中方代表团明确拒绝美国财长会面请求，而与九国展开对话，此举被视为对特朗普145%超高关税的强硬回应。 面对中方冷处理，特朗普急称"接到北京来电"却被直接驳斥，同时中国正大规模取消美国订单，从农产品到能源全面反制。 中美关税交锋背后有何战略考量？对话被拒绝的真正原因是什么？ 作者-凯 冷眼相待，拒绝搭台 华盛顿会议厅内，美国财长贝森特的表情像是吃了苦瓜一般难看。他手边那张空荡荡的会谈安排表，仿佛在无声地嘲笑着他的自信。 原本预期的中美高层对话，变成了一场单相思的尴尬。中国财政部长蓝佛安虽然确实到达华盛顿参加G20财长会议，但他的日程表上，唯独美国这一栏画了 个大大的叉。 前言 更让贝森特心塞的是，中方代表团在这两天竟与九个国家和国际组织安排了一对一会晤，唯独将美国排除在外。这种明显的"选择性沟通"，用行动传递出一 个再清晰不过的信号：中国无意在此时与美国坐下来谈。 会议期间，蓝佛安发言直指关税战对全球经济的破坏性影响，强调中方将坚定维护以世贸组织为基础的多边贸易体系。台下的各国代表纷纷点头，而美方代 表则神情尴尬。 贝森特此前还通过媒体放出风来，说要与中方进行"面对面交流"，殊不知中方对这种带 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The international crude oil market has changed suddenly. Kazakhstan, which previously promised compensatory production cuts, declared that its oil production is determined by national interests and it is not an OPEC+ producer. This makes it difficult for compensatory production cuts of OPEC+ over - producing countries to be implemented. After the short - term negative risks are digested, the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures showed a stable and oscillating trend on Thursday night. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract is expected to maintain a stable and oscillating trend on Friday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Time Cycle and Price Movement Definitions - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For price movement, a decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, an increase of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1][3][4]. b. Crude Oil 2506 Contract Analysis - The short - term view of crude oil 2506 is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating weakly, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is a strong - running trend. There are differences in the long - and short - term directions, and the crude oil is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. c. Price and Market Analysis - The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rebounded slightly by 1.00% to 495.4 yuan/barrel on Thursday night. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Friday [5].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：feng ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: April 24, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI opened at $62.73, closed at $63.54, with a high of $64.36, a low of $62.72, a daily increase of 1.81%, and a trading volume of 27.82 million lots [6] - Brent opened at $65.8, closed at $66.85, with a high of $67.08, a low of $65.58, a daily increase of 2.37%, and a trading volume of 30.55 million lots [6] - SC opened at 495 yuan/barrel, closed at 503.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 506 yuan/barrel, a low of 492.4 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 3.34%, and a trading volume of 16.16 million lots [6] - API data showed that as of the week ending April 18, U.S. crude oil inventories declined more than expected, and overnight oil prices continued to rebound [6] - OPEC+ updated its compensation production cut plan, reducing the average daily production by 72,000 barrels after May. After the update, the new supply in May decreased to 33,000 barrels per day, providing some support to the supply side [7] - The U.S. imposed stricter sanctions on buyers of Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil, which may have a short - term deterrent effect on the market [7] - Three major institutions downgraded their global crude oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to varying degrees. Although supply was also adjusted downward due to pessimistic oil price expectations, the overall supply surplus increased [7] - In the context of the trade war, the market's expectation for crude oil demand is pessimistic. Oil prices have limited room for a trend - upward movement and are highly susceptible to significant fluctuations from news. Considering recent bullish factors, investors can consider buying call options and setting timely profit - taking targets. SC is relatively stronger due to sanctions [7] Industry News - The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Iranian natural gas and shipping companies [8] - Russian President Putin will discuss OPEC+ issues with the Sultan of Oman [8] - According to a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry on the 22nd, the technical talks within the framework of the indirect Iran - U.S. talks originally scheduled for the 23rd were postponed to the 26th, and the heads of the two delegations will attend [8] Data Overview - The report includes data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Dtd Brent, and Oman, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][12][13]

在日线图上，从 4 月 22 日的流星和每日 RSI 上的多次看跌背离可以看出，从 2583 美元开始的五浪大周期可能已经完成。从技术形态来看，黄金已跌破自 2,900美元上涨以来的23.6%回调位，并短暂下探至3,315美元一线。若进一步下破3,289美元的38.2%回调位，可能触发更多的技术性抛压。日线图上的震荡指 标依旧处于正区间，暗示上行趋势未被彻底破坏。若重回3,400美元上方并突破3,425美元阻力，黄金有望重新挑战3,500美元关口。若3,280美元支撑不破，黄 金或将进入整理蓄势阶段，为新一轮上攻打下基础！黄金短线操作建议： 多单策略：回落至3285-3290附近未跌破可尝试多单，止损3277，目标3325-3330； 空单策略：反弹至3345-3348附近做空，止损3354，目标3310-3305；破位提损下看； 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 周三（4月23日）黄金价格自3,500美元创纪录高点回调，连续两日吸引部分卖盘。美国总统特朗普缓和对美联储主席的言辞，并释放出贸易紧张关系可能缓 和的信号，削弱了市场对避险资产的需求。但由于美联储可能重启降息周期以及市场对美国经济的不信任，黄金下方仍存在坚实 ...

前言：富格林身为亚洲500强优质名企品牌，始终专注运用15年丰富经验为广大投资者曝光金市进场良 机，以优质客户服务严厉打击各式虚假套路乱象。周三(4月23日)亚市盘初，金融市场突然出现剧烈波 动。特朗普表示，无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，受此影响美元短线飙升，现货黄金出现惊人暴跌。投资 者可在线咨询富格林合理规避虚假套路风险，精准专家团队提供即时行情指引，高效落实把握曝光的金 市趋势盈利契机。 富格林身为亚洲500强优质名企品牌，始终专注运用15年丰富经验为广大投资者曝光金市进场良机，以 优质客户服务严厉打击各式虚假套路乱象。周三（4月23日）亚市早盘，现货黄金低开近40美元，并一 度触及3313.51美元/盎司，较周二触及的历史高点3500关口下跌近200美元，因美财长暗示国际贸易紧 张局势将缓和，这激发了股市乐观情绪并提振美元反弹至近一周高位。投资者可在线咨询富格林合理规 避虚假套路风险，精准专家团队提供即时行情指引，高效落实把握曝光的金市趋势盈利契机。 富格林据讯，由于全球贸易紧张局势缓和提振了风险情绪以及美元走强，周二现货黄金冲高回落，盘中 历史性地触及3500美元关口后急坠逾130美元，最终收跌1.24 ...