| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/01/21 | 3110 | 3260 | 3310 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/22 | 3110 | 3260 | 3310 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/23 | 3160 | 3260 | 3350 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/26 | 3160 | 3290 | 3350 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/27 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 | 乐从冷卷 | | 2026/ ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-28 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-28 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊冲突或有升级，美元重挫，黄金又新高 观点分享： 美伊冲突或有升级，美元重挫，黄金又新高。昨天市场的波动基本上都被美伊冲突升级 的可能性所带动，美国在中东加强军事部署，和据相关人士爆料美国可能对伊朗动武的消息 极大的增加了市场的担忧。加之美国消费者信心指数创近年来新低、特朗普表示不担心美元 下跌、同时同时市场开始加注周三(今日晚间)公布的联储利率决议暂停降息等诸多因素的影 响，美元出现大幅下滑。受此影响，贵金属也因此保持了强势，黄金价格再创历史新高；离 岸人民币三年来也首次涨破 6.94。日元三连涨，欧元和英镑也创下三年来新高。正在股市方 面，市场表现的仍然较为强势。在美股科技公司财报公布之际，市场对盈利预期较为乐观。 标普创下历史新高；欧洲方面主要国家股市也都基本保持了上涨的趋势。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 生猪 | ★★★★ | 生猪：旺季预期落空，近端供应压力显现。近期生猪现货市场表现出两个异常 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

黑色建材日报 2026-01-28 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 171.47 万手，环比减少 16197 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.39%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 150.84 万手，环比减少 6369 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪较好，成材价格继续在底部区间内震荡。基本面方面，热轧卷板供需双双回落，库 存水平逐步下降并趋 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月28日08时21分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3126 | -17 | -0.54% | 15 | 0.48% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3289 ...

特朗普最新表态对于弱势美元较为满意，市场风险偏好上升， 美元指数明显走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） 12 月规上工企利润同比增 5.3% 综 A 股震荡缩量上涨，市场仍有一定韧性，但逻辑主线近期较为混 乱，投机情绪主导行情。未来随着监管层持续加码，我们认为 风格差异或将收敛。仍建议均衡配置各股指多头。 日度报告——综合晨报 美元走弱，金价再创新高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国消费者信心跌至 2014 年以来低点 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 CME 调整白银保证金 报 金价再度上涨创新高，主要受到美元指数大跌的驱动，一方面 是市场对美元信用的担忧持续强化，对黄金储备需求增加。一 方面是日本有联合干预外汇市场的预期，美元大跌利多黄金 有色金属（锡） Alphamin 2025 年锡矿产量 18,576 吨 印尼拟出台锡的最低成本价格机制 能源化工（原油） API 美国原油库存下降 油价上涨，因供应扰动因素支撑油价。 未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in 2025 is supported by new momentum and anti-involution policies, with a marginal increase in profit growth rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year [2][3] - In December 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing from negative to positive with an 18.4 percentage point recovery [3] - The industrial added value in December 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, driven by resilient exports and high-tech industries [3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises in 2025 was 5.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, but the decline was less severe than in the previous months [3] - Among 41 industrial sectors, 16 sectors achieved positive profit growth in 2025, with notable growth in black metal smelting, non-ferrous metal mining, and high-tech manufacturing [4] - The end of three consecutive years of negative profit growth for industrial enterprises is attributed to support from new momentum sectors and the implementation of anti-involution policies [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds remaining stable and other types of bonds seeing growth [6][8] - Credit bond yields generally declined, with credit spreads for medium and short-term notes narrowing [8] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with a focus on adjusting strategies in response to market fluctuations and maintaining a cautious approach to ticket strategies [8] Fund Research - The number of equity funds increased to 7,583 by the end of Q4 2025, with a total scale of 94,572.12 billion, a decrease of 277.04 billion from the previous quarter [11] - Active equity funds saw a slight decrease in positions, with a notable decline in mixed and flexible allocation funds [11][12] - The allocation in the main board decreased significantly, while the allocation in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market increased [12] - The top five industries with increased holdings included non-ferrous metals and communications, while electronics and biomedicine saw a decrease [12] Industry Research - The geopolitical situation has led to strong performance in gold prices, with expectations for continued upward pressure due to uncertainties [14][15] - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to steady growth policies and demand in shipbuilding and construction [15] - The copper industry is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, supported by supply constraints and demand from key sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [16] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from improved supply dynamics and demand from the new energy vehicle sector [16] - The rare earth industry is projected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export control upgrades and strategic importance [17]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Wujin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. has announced its major operating data for the fourth quarter of 2025, which is unaudited and emphasizes the importance of cautious investment decisions [1]. Group 1 - The announcement is made in accordance with the Shanghai Stock Exchange's self-regulatory guidelines for listed companies, specifically referencing the steel industry [1]. - The board of directors of Jiangsu Wujin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. guarantees that the content of the announcement does not contain any false records, misleading statements, or significant omissions, and they bear legal responsibility for its authenticity, accuracy, and completeness [1].

在2025年即将过去的时候，中国的宏观经济发生了一件大事，人民币快速升值破7，这将深刻影响中国经济，尤其是对中国美元GDP的重估，中国以汇率计 算的美元GDP将大幅提升，相对其他国家而言，我们的经济实力将大幅提升。 中国美元GDP的重估，对当前中日经济实力对比是非常重要的，中国正值伟大复兴的关键时刻，日本首相高市早苗亮出了獠牙，在过去的100多年，日本多 次打断了我们的复兴之路，这是我们需要警惕的 中国的人口数量以及土地面积都远远大于日本，在上千年中，中国的实力都远大于日本，但是在近代以来被日本反超。甲午战争之后，日本的野心急剧膨 胀，妄想彻底占领殖民中国，日本以举国之力，以及通过战争赔款迅速完成工业化，实力大幅跃升。 中国的工业化努力发生在洋务运动期间，但是甲午战争的失败打断了工业化进程，中国虽然人口众多，但是依然是一个农业国，对上日本这个新兴的工业 国，被降维打击了，中国人民用了14年时间，最终击败日本，但这是惨胜，伤亡3600万同胞，半壁国土深陷战火。 日本是如何降维打击的？在二战期间，日本的钢铁产量一度达到八百多万吨，而中国只有几十万吨，只有日本的十分之一不到，机器设备、枪炮等等，这都 需要钢铁，中国 ...

Core Insights - The GDP performance of the 14 cities in the Yangtze River Delta for 2025 indicates a steady economic recovery, with significant contributions from key cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo [1][3]. Group 1: GDP Rankings and Growth Rates - The 14 cities are categorized into three tiers based on GDP: Shanghai leads with a GDP of 56,708.71 billion yuan and a nominal growth rate of 5.49% [3][6]. - The second tier includes Hangzhou with a GDP of 23,011 billion yuan (growth rate of 5.26%) and Ningbo with 18,715.7 billion yuan (growth rate of 3.13%) [3][6]. - The middle tier consists of cities like Wenzhou, Shaoxing, and Jiajing, with GDPs ranging from 7,005 to 10,213 billion yuan and growth rates between 3.72% and 6.73% [3][7]. - The lower tier includes cities like Huzhou and Ma'anshan, with GDPs between 1,415 and 4,452 billion yuan, but growth rates are strong, ranging from 4.89% to 6.78% [3][9]. Group 2: Economic Contributions and Trends - 11 out of the 14 cities have growth rates exceeding 5%, representing 78% of the total, which is significantly higher than the national average [3][9]. - The top three cities (Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo) account for over 52% of the total GDP of the 14 cities, highlighting their leading role in economic growth [3][9]. - Shanghai's GDP growth is supported by strong industries such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence, with a production value exceeding 500 billion yuan [9][10]. Group 3: Emerging Cities and Growth Dynamics - Cities like Tongling, Shaoxing, and Chuzhou have shown remarkable growth rates, with Tongling achieving 6.78% due to industrial upgrades and a shift from traditional copper processing to new energy materials [9][10]. - The integration of cities like Ma'anshan into the Yangtze River Delta has led to significant economic benefits, particularly in the automotive manufacturing sector [9][10]. - The economic resilience of the region is evident, with a focus on sustainable growth and employment opportunities, driven by unique industrial characteristics [10][13].