Group 1: Construction and Infrastructure Investment - In the first nine months of 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, while narrow infrastructure and broad infrastructure investments increased by 1.1% and 3.3% respectively [1][2] - In September 2025, real estate development investment fell by 21.3%, narrow infrastructure by 4.7%, and broad infrastructure by 8.0% [1][2] - The overall performance of infrastructure in the third quarter was weak due to a high base, but the fourth quarter is expected to benefit from early fiscal fund allocations and the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [1][2] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction Performance - From January to September 2025, the sales area of real estate decreased by 5.5%, with a monthly decline of 11.9% [2] - The completion area of real estate saw a monthly increase of 0.38% in September, marking the first positive monthly growth since 1999 [2] - The construction area decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 16.44% [2] Group 3: Cement Industry Insights - Cement production from January to September 2025 was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year, with September's production at 154 million tons, a decline of 8.6% [2][3] - The average cement shipment rate was 41.3%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating weak demand [2] - Cement prices showed fluctuations, with an average price of 351 yuan per ton, down 64 yuan year-on-year, but slightly up by 4 yuan from early September [2] Group 4: Glass Industry Demand - Flat glass production from January to September 2025 was 72.881 million heavy boxes, down 5.2% year-on-year, with September's production at 8.148 million heavy boxes, a decline of 9.7% [3] - There was a slight improvement in demand for float glass in September, with a good trading atmosphere and a decrease in producer inventory [3] - The average price for 5mm float white glass was 67.8 yuan per heavy box, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9 yuan [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the Chinese economy and its future development plans, particularly focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy faces three major challenges: a decline in the real estate market, local government debt risks, and an aging population [4][5]. 2. **Growth Targets**: The expected economic growth target for the next five years is an average of 4.5% to 5% annually, with a goal of maintaining a growth rate of around 5% in 2026 [5][19]. 3. **Modern Industrial System**: The plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on the importance of the real economy and manufacturing, as well as the development of new productive forces [1][7][8]. 4. **New Productive Forces**: Key tasks include technological innovation, upgrading traditional industries, nurturing future industries, and integrating technology with the real economy [8][12]. 5. **Regional Development**: The marine economy is highlighted as a potential growth area, with marine GDP currently at approximately 10 trillion yuan, accounting for about 8% of national GDP [9]. 6. **Green Development**: Emphasis on energy conservation, carbon reduction, and recycling, with increased investment in new and clean energy sources [12]. 7. **Social Welfare**: Focus on reducing income disparity and enhancing the quality of life for lower-income groups, which is a key aspect of achieving common prosperity [6][10]. 8. **Major Tasks**: The plan outlines 13 major tasks, including the construction of a modern industrial system and enhancing service sector competitiveness [7][16]. 9. **Investment Trends**: Recent declines in fixed asset investment are concerning, attributed mainly to the real estate sector's downturn, necessitating measures to stimulate investment [19][20]. 10. **Infrastructure Projects**: The "8+1 Super Projects" include significant infrastructure initiatives like the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and the Yangtze River Waterway, which are crucial for economic development [18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Policy Adjustments**: The order of policy priorities has shifted, with industrial policy and foreign openness gaining more emphasis, reflecting the central government's focus on these areas [2][3]. 2. **Investment in Human Capital**: The importance of investing in social welfare sectors such as education, healthcare, and cultural industries is noted as a means to drive consumption growth [10][11]. 3. **Reform and Opening Up**: Recommendations for reform include expanding the consumption tax base and cautiously advancing property tax to alleviate local fiscal pressures [13][14]. 4. **Capital Outflow**: The significance of capital outflow and foreign investment is highlighted as a means to balance the economy and promote global economic cooperation [14][15]. 5. **Future Planning**: The planning for major projects in the 15th Five-Year Plan involves a focus on technology innovation, key industries, and social welfare, ensuring a comprehensive approach to development [17][21].

Economic Growth Analysis - The overall economic growth in China has shown a slowdown in Q3, with GDP growth at 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the first three quarters [2][3] - Nominal GDP growth for Q3 was 3.7%, with a cumulative nominal GDP growth of 4.1% for the first three quarters [2] Factors Contributing to Slowdown - The slowdown is attributed to three main factors: reduced policy effectiveness, diminishing internal growth momentum, and weak consumer sentiment [3][4] - Macro policies were strong in the first half of the year but weakened in the second half, impacting economic support [3] - The effectiveness of certain policies, such as the consumption upgrade program, has diminished, leading to a decline in retail sales growth [3][4] Positive Economic Indicators - Despite the slowdown, there are positive signs such as improved industrial capacity utilization and a rebound in PPI [6][7] - Exports have remained resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, supported by diversified markets and competitive products [7] - High-tech industries have shown robust growth, with a 9.6% increase in value-added output in the first three quarters [8] September Economic Performance - In September, exports and industrial production saw a rebound, while consumer spending and investment continued to decline [9][10] - Retail sales and catering revenue showed a decrease, indicating ongoing consumer weakness [10] - Real estate sales saw a slight improvement due to new policies in major cities, but overall investment remains low [11] Future Economic Outlook - The economic performance in Q4 will depend on the introduction of new policies, with potential GDP growth forecasted between 4.6% and 4.8% [13] - The need for new incremental policies is emphasized to support economic recovery [14][19] Recommendations for Policy Adjustments - Suggestions include increasing fiscal support, optimizing debt management, and enhancing monetary policy to stimulate economic activity [15][16] - A comprehensive approach to real estate policy is recommended to stabilize the market and support local governments [17][18] - Consumer-oriented policies should be developed to boost spending and improve income distribution [19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the economic growth slowed marginally, and there was still pressure on the price front. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth from Q1 to Q3 was 5.2%. Achieving the annual 5% target is not difficult. However, the nominal GDP increased by only 3.7% year - on - year, hitting a new low since Q4 2022, and the GDP deflator was about - 1.02% year - on - year in the current quarter, indicating continuous price pressure [7]. - Industrial production showed resilience, and high - end manufacturing remained prosperous. In September, the industrial added value increased to 6.4% year - on - year, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth accelerated to 0.64%. The export of technology - intensive products was an important increment, and the export delivery value turned positive to 3.8% year - on - year. The production of high - tech products such as automobiles (14%) and industrial robots (28%) maintained high growth year - on - year [7]. - The investment side continued to weaken, and the monthly declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all widened. In September, the monthly fixed - asset investment decreased to - 6.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth turned negative to - 0.5%, the weakest since August 2020 [7]. - The growth rate of residents' income and expenditure slowed down, and the effect of consumption subsidies may have weakened marginally. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 3.0%, slowing down for the fourth consecutive month [7]. - The economy in Q4 faces a high base, weak domestic demand, and external uncertainties. It is expected that the actual GDP year - on - year growth may slow down to about 4.5%, but the annual economic growth rate of 5% can still be achieved. Strong pro - growth policies may still need to wait. If external changes bring new pressure to the capital market, monetary policy may be intensified. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and recover in Q4, and it is recommended to allocate the active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.75% [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In Q3, the economy slowed down marginally, and the economic data in September was generally weak due to the drag on the demand side. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, basically in line with expectations, and the cumulative year - on - year growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size rebounded by 1.3 pct to 6.5%, higher than the expected 5.2%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased by 0.4 pct to 3.0% compared with the previous month, lower than the expected 3.1%. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.0 pct and turned negative to - 0.5%, lower than the expected 0.03% [4]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Economic Growth**: In Q3, the economic growth slowed down marginally, and price pressure persisted. The actual GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 pct lower than Q2, the lowest single - quarter growth since Q3 2023, and the quarter - on - quarter growth rate remained flat at 1.1%. The cumulative growth from Q1 to Q3 was 5.2%, and achieving the annual 5% target is not difficult. The nominal GDP increased by only 3.7% year - on - year, a new low since Q4 2022, and the GDP deflator was about - 1.02% year - on - year in the current quarter, showing continuous price pressure [7]. - **Industrial Production**: Industrial production showed resilience, and high - end manufacturing remained prosperous. In September, the industrial added value increased to 6.4% year - on - year, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth accelerated to 0.64%. The export of technology - intensive products was an important increment, and the export delivery value turned positive to 3.8% year - on - year. The production of high - tech products such as automobiles (14%) and industrial robots (28%) maintained high growth year - on - year. In Q3, the industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 74.6%, a 0.6 pct increase quarter - on - quarter. The capacity utilization rates of industries such as automobiles, electrical machinery, and electronic communications increased, but some traditional industries such as the mining industry still faced over - capacity pressure. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index remained flat at 5.6%, while construction activities were weak, and the year - on - year decline in cement production widened to - 8.6%, indicating a drag on the investment side [7]. - **Investment**: The investment side continued to weaken, and the monthly declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all widened. In September, the monthly fixed - asset investment decreased to - 6.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth turned negative to - 0.5%, the weakest since August 2020, and the decline in private investment reached 8.9%. All three investment sub - items deteriorated: 1) The year - on - year decline in real estate investment in the current month widened to - 21.3%, the year - on - year decline in sales area was - 11.9%, and the year - on - year decline in sales volume was - 12.4%. Although the new construction and completion areas improved marginally, the funds in place were weak, and real - estate enterprises lacked confidence. 2) The full - caliber infrastructure investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year in the current month, affected by the limited fiscal space, and the investment in areas such as water conservancy and public facilities management declined. 3) Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.9% year - on - year in the current month. Weak terminal demand and the "anti - involution" phenomenon disturbed enterprises' willingness to make capital expenditures. The drag from construction and installation projects increased, and the implementation of physical work volume was slow. Weak investment became the core of weak domestic demand [7]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate of residents' income and expenditure slowed down, and the effect of consumption subsidies may have weakened marginally. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 3.0%, slowing down for the fourth consecutive month. Both commodity retail (3.3%) and catering (0.9%) weakened, especially the year - on - year growth rate of catering above the designated size turned negative to - 1.6%. The effect of the "trade - in" measure declined: the year - on - year growth rate of home appliance retail decreased from 14.3% to 3.3%, and the growth rate of cultural office supplies declined. Structurally, rural consumption (4.0%) continued to be stronger than urban consumption (2.9%), which may be because the decline in housing prices had a deeper impact on the wealth effect of urban families. In Q3, the growth rates of residents' income and expenditure slowed down simultaneously: the actual cumulative year - on - year growth rate of per - capita disposable income decreased by 0.2 pct to 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of consumption expenditure decreased by 0.6 pct to 4.7%. The low - inflation environment affected consumer confidence. The urban surveyed unemployment rate slightly decreased to 5.2% in September, but as of August, the surveyed unemployment rates of the 16 - 24 - year - old and 25 - 29 - year - old labor forces were still high [7]. - **Outlook**: The bond market may have priced in the marginal slowdown of the Q3 economy. The economy in Q4 faces a high base, weak domestic demand, and external uncertainties. It is expected that the actual GDP year - on - year growth may slow down to about 4.5%, but the annual economic growth rate of 5% can still be achieved. Strong pro - growth policies may still need to wait. If external changes bring new pressure to the capital market, monetary policy may be intensified. It is expected that the bond market will continue to fluctuate and recover in Q4, and it is recommended to allocate the active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds when the yield is above 1.75% [1][7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - Infrastructure investment showed weakness in September, but the fourth quarter may benefit from increased funding and policy catalysts. The report highlights the importance of infrastructure as a stabilizing measure for the economy, with a focus on undervalued, high-dividend construction stocks [1][2] - The real estate sector saw a decline in sales area by 5.5% year-on-year from January to September, with a significant drop of 21.3% in September alone. However, the completion rate for real estate projects turned positive for the first time since 2024, indicating a potential recovery [2] - Cement demand is gradually weakening, with a production drop of 5.2% year-on-year from January to September. The report suggests that cement companies may seek to optimize supply and increase prices to recover profitability [3] - The flat glass market showed signs of improvement in September, with a slight increase in demand. However, overall production still declined by 5.2% year-on-year, and inventory levels have risen significantly [4] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment from January to September showed a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, but September alone saw a decline of 4.7%. The report anticipates a recovery in the fourth quarter due to early fiscal funding and new policy financial tools [1][2] Real Estate Sector - Real estate sales area decreased by 5.5% year-on-year from January to September, with a notable drop of 11.9% in September. New construction area fell by 18.9% year-on-year, while completion area saw a slight increase in September, marking the first positive growth since 2024 [2] Cement Industry - Cement production from January to September was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year. The average shipment rate was 41.3%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year. The report indicates that cement companies are likely to push for price increases to enhance profitability [3] Glass Industry - Flat glass production from January to September was 72.881 million weight cases, down 5.2% year-on-year. The report notes a slight improvement in demand in September, but overall inventory levels have increased significantly, indicating potential challenges ahead [4]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the "deep earth economy" concept in the A-share market has led to a surge in various sectors including oil and gas, mining, engineering machinery, and infrastructure, attracting significant investor attention [1] Company Responses - 博盈特焊: The company's anti-corrosion and wear-resistant welding technology can be applied to oil pipelines and other components requiring such technology in deep earth oil and gas transportation [1] - 梅安森: The company's products and related technologies are primarily used for intelligent and safe production in various underground mining spaces. The company is actively developing mining robots for autonomous inspections in underground spaces, with steady progress in related R&D [1] - 北路智控: The company provides intelligent mining-related hardware and software products and solutions. It will continue to align with national policies in the "deep earth economy" sector and actively seize related development opportunities [1] - 中交设计: The company leads the China Communications Construction Group's deep earth future industry, forming an innovative consortium for deep underground space utilization, focusing on geological exploration, ultra-deep shaft construction, and other technical R&D, achieving significant results [1] - 地铁设计: The company is engaged in surveying, design, planning consulting, and engineering contracting in rail transit, municipal, and civil construction fields, participating in multiple urban underground space development projects [1] - 苏盐井神: The company is currently focused on key projects related to deep earth development, including the Zhangxing gas storage facility (Phase I), a joint venture with Jiangsu Guoxin Group for the 600MW gas storage project, and a salt cavern small molecule gas storage center project [1]

Core Insights - The Jiangsu Changzhou Jintan Cultural Industry Promotion Conference was held in Shanghai, highlighting Jintan's strategic location and its integration into major regional development plans [1] - Jintan has focused on developing its cultural industry, emphasizing the integration of culture, commerce, sports, and tourism, and exploring new economic avenues such as the "pet economy" and "camping economy" [1] - The region has achieved significant recognition, ranking 30th among national districts for high-quality development and 62nd for investment potential [1] Group 1 - Jintan has established a "Five New Industries" system focusing on new energy, new infrastructure, new materials, new medicine, and new intelligent equipment, with 669 enterprises projected for 2024, accounting for over 85% of the industrial enterprises [2] - The total industrial output value for the "Five New Industries" is expected to reach 2129.1 billion yuan, representing over 90% of the total industrial output [2] - Jintan has nurtured 8 listed companies, quadrupling the number from ten years ago, with significant growth in the capital market presence [2] Group 2 - The promotion conference resulted in multiple key cultural industry projects being signed, including the integration of agriculture and tourism, professional sports events, and music-related projects [2] - Jintan officials conducted visits to key cultural enterprises in Shanghai to learn from advanced practices and consider differentiated strategies for cultural industry development [2]

Market Overview - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.67 trillion yuan, showing a further decline in trading activity, down 206 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2] - On October 22, all three major A-share indices closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.79% [1][2] Sector Performance - The deep earth economy concept continued to gain traction, with notable performances in the real estate, banking, and large infrastructure sectors. Agricultural Bank of China reached a historical high after 14 consecutive days of gains [2] - The lithium battery supply chain experienced a widespread decline, while gold and rare earth metals also saw collective downturns. Concepts related to Hainan and storage chips underwent corrections [2] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as wind power equipment, home appliances, and gaming, while there was a net outflow from semiconductor, securities, and software development sectors [4] - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included Tianfu Communication, Haiguang Information, and N Marco, with inflows of 1.018 billion yuan, 666 million yuan, and 587 million yuan respectively [4] - Conversely, BYD, Industrial Fulian, and Tianfeng Securities faced net outflows of 1.027 billion yuan, 1.014 billion yuan, and 1.011 billion yuan respectively [4] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities suggests that the index may maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term, awaiting the resolution of overseas risk disturbances and observing liquidity support for potential breakthroughs [5] - Flash Gold Asset Management anticipates that, in the absence of large-scale investment stimulus policies, the market may continue its fluctuating pattern until the end of the year [5]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP growth rate declined to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2's 5.2%, but the cumulative growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, indicating that achieving the annual target of 5.0% is still feasible [1][2] - Fixed asset investment has been a major drag on growth, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% in September 2025, marking the first negative growth since 2021 [1][10] Consumption Trends - Retail sales continued to decline in September 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 4.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from August [1][24] - The restaurant sector also saw a slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][28] Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained stable at 6.2% in September 2025, with significant differentiation between real estate-related and non-real estate-related industries [1][4] - Real estate-related industries such as glass, cement, and crude steel experienced accelerated production contraction, while non-real estate-related industries showed marginal growth [1][11] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% month-on-month in September, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.3% [1][7] - Core CPI increased to 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by rising gold and service prices [1][7] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment showed a downward trend across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors, with real estate investment down 13.9% year-on-year in September [1][10] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.3% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][10] Debt Market Conditions - The debt market remains under pressure, with short-term fluctuations driven by U.S.-China trade news, but lacking strong long-term support [1][18] - The short end of the debt market shows higher certainty, while long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing increased volatility [1][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the macro - economy showed characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, with little pressure to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. However, there was still an obvious "uneven" economic situation [1][7]. - Macro policies have started to actively respond to the "cold" parts of the economy. Two policies targeting fixed - asset investment, especially infrastructure investment, are expected to improve the infrastructure investment growth rate in Q4 and support overall investment [1][2][9]. - For the bond market, insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery support the bond market, but the pricing may be limited. In the absence of significant macro - environment and policy surprises, the bond market may continue the "ceiling - and - floor" volatile trend [2][10]. Summaries by Sections 1. September Economic Data: Differentiation between Strong Production and Slow Demand - The macro - economy in September 2025 had characteristics of "strong production, slow demand, and low prices". The production end was significantly stronger than expected, while demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment were weak. External demand remained resilient, but domestic demand slowed down, especially investment [1][7][8]. - Macro policies have responded. New policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are used to supplement project capital, and the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt balance limits to local areas, 10 billion yuan more than last year. These policies are expected to support Q4 investment [1][9]. 2. Industrial Production Shows Strong Performance, Exceeding Market Expectations - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to September was 6.2%. Manufacturing upgrading continued to drive industrial resilience [3][12]. - The service production index in September increased by 5.6% year - on - year, basically flat compared with the previous month [13]. - By industry, the year - on - year growth rates of the automotive and food industries rebounded significantly in September, while those of the ferrous metal processing and electrical machinery industries declined. Emerging product output had high growth rates [15]. 3. Consumption Growth Continues to Slow, Policy Dividends Weaken - In September, the growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales slowed down again. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 3.0%, the lowest increase this year. The policy subsidy dividend effect weakened, and the year - on - year growth rates of policy - supported home appliances and furniture declined significantly [4][18][22]. - Service consumption performed better than commodity consumption. The service retail sales in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the 4.6% of commodity retail sales [22]. 4. Investment Growth Declines Overall, Continues to Bottom Out - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [26]. - Manufacturing investment had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 4%, with weakening growth momentum. Equipment purchase investment was still resilient, but some industries were cautious in capital expenditure due to "anti - involution" policies [28][29]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) had a cumulative year - on - year growth of 1.1%, with a further decline. Traditional infrastructure project construction slowed down, and the construction industry's slow production dragged down the investment growth rate. Fiscal policy weakening and local government debt - repayment pressure also affected funds [29]. - Real - estate investment had a cumulative year - on - year decline of 13.9% and was still bottoming out. The decline in real - estate sales area and sales volume widened, and the real - estate market was still "trading at a lower price for higher volume". More relaxed real - estate policies may be needed [29][30].