Consumption - Automotive consumption remains high, with wholesale and retail sales showing a slight decline due to seasonal factors, but the four-week average year-on-year growth rate remains stable[4] - Service consumption is relatively flat, with urban congestion indices decreasing and subway passenger flow rebounding, although overall numbers are slightly down year-on-year[4] Investment - Infrastructure investment is accelerating, with special bond issuance reaching CNY 1.48 trillion as of May 18, 2025, and CNY 285.2 billion issued in the first 18 days of May[11] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities show a seasonal rebound but year-on-year growth has dropped from 6.3% to -15.0%[14] Trade and Port Operations - Import and export activities have rebounded due to tariff adjustments, with port operations improving and the number of ships docking at ports increasing significantly[17] - Export freight rates have seen a notable increase, with Shanghai and Ningbo export rates rising by 10.0% and 6.5% respectively[17] Production - Power generation coal consumption has rebounded, indicating marginal recovery in production, with some industries showing improved operating rates[19] - The steel and petrochemical sectors have seen slight improvements in operating rates, although some areas still face year-on-year declines[20] Inventory and Prices - Most inventories have decreased, except for coal and cement, which have seen increases, with coal inventories reaching historical highs[32] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased while Producer Price Index (PPI) has increased, indicating a stabilization in industrial product prices overall[34] Currency and Liquidity - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated to 7.20 against the US dollar, with the dollar index rising by 56 basis points due to favorable US economic data[39] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 5 and 10 basis points respectively[36]

Economic Growth Forecast - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is expected to be around 5.2%, with the first half of the year projected at approximately 5.3%[2] - Monthly GDP growth rates for April and May are estimated at 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively, aligning with demand-side predictions[2] Export and Trade Dynamics - Exports are anticipated to achieve a growth rate of 3%-5% in Q2, driven by "grabbing exports" and "grabbing trans-exports" despite high base effects[2][23] - The easing of trade frictions is expected to enhance export performance, making the real economic fundamentals more noteworthy in Q2[4] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail sales growth for the first four months of the year is at 4.7%, with "trade-in" consumption categories showing a 7.2% increase, contributing approximately 1.1 percentage points to overall retail growth[5] - The impact of "trade-in" policies is projected to support retail sales growth at around 4.5%-5% in Q2, with final consumption growth estimated at about 4.3%[20] Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate sales are facing downward pressure as the effects of the 924 policy diminish, with a 1-4 month cumulative decline in new housing sales area of -2.8% compared to -17.1% in the previous year[14] - The second-hand housing market showed a significant increase of 21.1% in transaction area from October 2024 to March 2025, but recent data indicates a cooling trend[14] Investment and Policy Implications - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize around 4%, supported by equipment updates and infrastructure projects, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment showing year-on-year increases of 8.8% and 10.9% respectively[23] - The overall economic stability in the first half of the year provides ample room for policy responses to external uncertainties, with sufficient flexibility for incremental policy adjustments in Q3[2][20]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[22] Policy and Structural Adjustments - The current low inflation environment necessitates a focus on price recovery, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting real estate and consumption sectors[5] - The structural shift towards "manufacturing as a nation" continues to strengthen economic resilience, countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on growth[5] Future Outlook - The economy is entering a phase of gradual recovery, with potential turning points in negative narratives observed, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for RMB assets[5] - Risks include potential policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, further declines in real estate, and slower-than-expected implementation of new policies[6]

服务行业：关注物流业出口相关政策限制。 1）欧盟表示，将对进入欧盟的小包裹收取手续费，这些小包裹大部 分来自中国。对此，外交部发言人表示，具体的问题建议向中方的主管部门了解，中方认为营造一个开放包容的 贸易环境符合各方的共同利益，希望欧方能够恪守开放的承诺，为中国企业提供公平透明非歧视的营商环境，为 中欧经贸合作创造有利条件。 宏观日报 | 2025-05-22 关注物流业出口相关政策限制 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注"俩新"政策推进情况。 1）上海市人民政府办公厅印发《上海市提振消费专项行动方案》。其中提 到，加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新。促进汽车消费，落实好国家汽车报废更新补贴和我市汽车置换更新补贴政策。 落实国家家电以旧换新补贴政策，新增手机、平板、智能手表（手环）等数码产品购新补贴，加力支持绿色家电 家居家装消费。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 数据来源：央视，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）农业：鸡蛋价格近期震荡。2）有色：铝近期价格持续回升。3）黑色：玻璃、橡胶价格短期回落。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落。2）基建：沥 ...

生产：关税扰动下，工业生产边际放缓。4 月，工业增加值同比增速 6.1%，低于前值，高于万得一致预期，环比增速弱于季节性，指向关税政 策扰动下，企业倾向于审慎观望，生产意愿边际回落，造成工业生产边际 放缓。4 月，出口交货值同比增速 0.9%，较上月大幅下降。总体看，工 业生产整体依旧较强：4 月工业增加值累计增速 6.4%，高出 2024 年全年 增速 0.6 个百分点，与一季度增速基本持平。产品产量上看，主要工业品 产量增速分化。上游传统能源类产量增速降低。下游消费品中，智能手 机、微型计算机、移动通信手持机等产量增速下降至负增区间，或指向电 子产品受关税政策扰动出现减产倾向。但 4 月中旬，美国海关与边境保护 局宣布对智能手机、电脑、芯片等电子产品免除"对等关税"，后续相关 电子产品产量或迎来修复。此外，新能源汽车、工业机器人、光伏电池等 代表新质生产力工业产品产量高增。 投资：固定资产投资增速略有回落，韧性依旧。基建方面，广义基建累计 增速 10.9%，略低于前置，整体依旧较强。但 4 月沥青开工率相对偏低， 主因化债背景下，按财务支出法统计时，基建投资与实物工作量情况存在 偏差。4 月，新增专项债累 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-05-21 4月用电增长，关注设备制造业产能 中观事件总览 生产行业：4月全社会用电稳步增长。1）国家能源局数据显示：4月份，全社会用电量7721亿千瓦时，同比增长4.7%。 从分产业用电看，第一产业用电量110亿千瓦时，同比增长13.8%；第二产业用电量5285亿千瓦时，同比增长3.0%； 第三产业用电量1390亿千瓦时，同比增长9.0%；城乡居民生活用电量936亿千瓦时，同比增长7.0%。1～4月，全社 会用电量累计31566亿千瓦时，同比增长3.1%，其中规模以上工业发电量为29840亿千瓦时。 服务行业：5月LPR下调10个基点。 1）中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年5月20日，贷款市 场报价利率（LPR）为，1年期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%，均较前期下调10个基点。以上LPR在下一次 发布LPR之前有效。 数据来源：央视，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）农业：鸡蛋价格同比回落。2）黑色：玻璃价格短期回落。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落。2）基建：沥青开工率近期持续回升。 下游：1）地产：一、二 ...

Group 1 - CATL, the world's largest power battery supplier, is going public in Hong Kong, marking a new chapter in its international expansion narrative [2] - The company is focusing on establishing a strong presence in Europe, which is seen as a critical market for its growth strategy [3] Group 2 - Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers are making strides in Brazil, indicating a potential comfortable zone for them in the global market [4] - The recent surge in overseas orders and production capacity expansion by A-share companies highlights a trend towards international market development, particularly in energy infrastructure and high-end manufacturing [7] Group 3 - Alibaba International Station is launching a major promotional event to capitalize on a temporary reduction in tariffs for exports to the U.S., aiming to assist small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [8] - The logistics company Cainiao reported an 80% month-on-month increase in package volume to Brazil, reflecting growing cross-border e-commerce activity [8] Group 4 - Xingji Meizu Group has successfully increased its overseas sales proportion to over 20% within three months of launching its global strategy, with plans to reach 50% in the future [9] - The Saudi Public Investment Fund has opened an office in Paris to enhance its global expansion efforts, having invested $84.7 billion in Europe from 2017 to 2024 [9]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 4 月经济：生产增势偏强，经济逆风飞扬 ——2025 年 4 月宏观数据解读 核心观点 我们认为，4 月经济回稳势头较好，供给端修复斜率显著高于需求端核心在于 工业稳增长政策的发力，4 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，但 4 月以来关税政策调整或在中长期维度形成不确定性预期，也可能通过信心渠 道使得总需求有所放缓，量价总体延续背离。我们预计，二季度经济相较一 季度将有所回落，全年可能呈现前高中低后稳的 U 型走势，物价回升节奏相 对较慢且斜率或相对平坦。 大类资产方面，短期内权益市场以低波红利为代表的防御板块或相对占优。 债券市场方面，预计 2025 年货币政策维持宽松基调，与财政政策、产业政策 形成政策合力，在这一过程中利率或震荡向下，我们预计仍保留 50BP 降准， 以及 20BP 降息的空间。 ❑ 工业、服务业生产均保持积极态势 4 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，高于市场预期与我们预期。从 环比看，4 月份规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.22%。一方面，大规模设备更新 和消费品以旧换新等政策加力扩围实施，从内需侧带动相关行业生 ...

Group 1 - In April, China's overall export growth slowed to 8.1%, with industrial export delivery value showing a nominal growth of 0.9%, down from 7.7% in March [1] - Manufacturing investment growth for January to April was 8.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - The real estate market showed signs of cooling, with some residents opting to wait, leading to declines in housing prices, sales, construction, and funding sources [1] Group 2 - The service sector demonstrated resilience against external shocks, with domestic travel during the Qingming Festival increasing by 6.3% in terms of visitor numbers and 6.7% in total spending [2] - The service production index in April grew by 6.0%, marking the second-highest monthly growth rate of the year [2] - Infrastructure investment from January to April increased by 5.8%, remaining steady compared to the first quarter, supported by easing local government debt issues and proactive fiscal policies [2] Group 3 - Despite external shocks, China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong resilience and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [3] - A recent high-level economic meeting between China and the U.S. resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating [3] - Following the announcement, global risk aversion decreased, leading to a drop in gold prices and an increase in stock markets, with major institutions raising their growth forecasts for China's economy [3] Group 4 - Recent financial policies announced by regulatory authorities include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates [4] - The government emphasized strengthening domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, aiming for enhanced economic resilience [4] - As these policies are implemented, the economic resilience of China is expected to further strengthen [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Construction Industry**: Focus on Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, Honglu Steel Structure - **Building Materials Industry**: Emphasis on consumer building materials and specific companies - **Environmental Industry**: Highlighting water and waste incineration sectors - **Pork Industry**: Analysis of pig prices and leading companies - **Agriculture Sector**: Focus on Haida Group - **Banking Sector**: Analysis of Ningbo Bank - **Media Sector**: Overview of the media industry and specific companies - **Steel Industry**: Insights on major steel companies - **Sportswear Industry**: Analysis of Anta Sports - **Liquor Industry**: Overview of the liquor market and key players Core Points and Arguments Construction Industry - **Sichuan Road and Bridge**: Expected to benefit from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle strategy, with a projected dividend yield of 6.2% in 2025 and a 25% upside potential in market value [1][3][4] - **China Chemical**: Strong overseas order growth, particularly benefiting from Xinjiang coal chemical construction, with a projected order volume of 400-500 billion [1][3][4] - **Honglu Steel Structure**: Anticipated 30%+ growth in performance due to improved export expectations and smart production efficiencies [1][4] Building Materials Industry - **Consumer Building Materials**: 2025 is expected to be a bottom year, with 2026 as a turning point due to resilient second-hand housing market demand [1][6][7][8] - **Key Companies**: Focus on Beixin Building Materials and Yilong Co., with projected growth rates of over 30% [1][9] Environmental Industry - **Water and Waste Incineration**: High dividend yield sectors, with water pricing reforms expected to enhance profitability [1][10][11][12] - **Specific Companies**: Hongcheng Environment and Hanlan Environment recommended for their stable growth and high dividend rates [1][12][13] Pork Industry - **Price Trends**: Pig prices are expected to remain above the breakeven point, with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens becoming attractive investment targets [1][16] Agriculture Sector - **Haida Group**: Projected significant growth in overseas markets, with a focus on expanding production capacity [1][17] Banking Sector - **Ningbo Bank**: Strong long-term investment value with a projected PB of 0.7x and a net interest income growth of over 15% [1][18][20] Media Sector - **Overall Performance**: The media sector has shown significant recovery, with recommended stocks including Mango Super Media and Kaiying Network [1][25][26][28] Steel Industry - **Current Trends**: High capacity utilization and stable smelting profits, with recommended stocks including Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing [1][36][40][41][42][43] Sportswear Industry - **Anta Sports**: Expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth over the next three years, with a stable dividend policy [1][32][33] Liquor Industry - **Market Recovery**: Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to maintain stable growth, with a focus on dividend policies [1][34][35] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Environment**: Current market conditions are characterized by unpredictable external changes, making long-term value investment strategies more favorable [2] - **Investment Opportunities**: Emphasis on identifying undervalued stocks across various sectors, particularly in the context of changing economic conditions and consumer demand [1][31]