Group 1: International News - The U.S. delegation will visit Moscow next week, and President Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the U.S. list for resolving the Ukraine issue as a basis for future negotiations. He stated that if Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from currently controlled areas, Russia will cease military actions; otherwise, military means will be employed to achieve objectives [1][6]. Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development and reviewed the provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance. The meeting emphasized the need to enhance grassroots medical service capabilities [7]. Group 3: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities. The NDRC also highlighted the need to balance speed and bubble risks in the development of embodied intelligence industries, particularly humanoid robots [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a high followed by a pullback. The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged. The market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 5.977 billion yuan to 24,522.65 billion yuan [2][11]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - In the coal market, the double焦 (coking coal and coke) futures showed weak performance, with total positions remaining stable. Steel production slightly increased, but overall inventory continued to decline, primarily driven by rebar. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron production [2][21]. Group 6: Oil Market Analysis - The SC night market for crude oil rose by 1.46%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries was 23.77 million barrels in October, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [3][14].

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts [2]. - Spot prices of various cotton and yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, and CY IndexC32S, along with their price changes [2]. - Price spreads, including cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads, are given, along with their price changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of November 24, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 100%, with a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and the same as last year. The picking progress in southern, northern, and eastern Xinjiang was also about 100% [4]. - From November 20 to 26, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - growing areas was 0.3mm, lower than normal and last year. The cumulative rainfall from October 1 to November 26 was 106.6mm, higher than normal. With little precipitation this week, the listing pace of cotton in India accelerated [5]. Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The market has entered a relatively off - season after the peak season. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated stronger, and cotton yarn futures fluctuated similarly. The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market changed little, with spinning mills mainly selling on a just - in - time basis. High - count combed yarns had good sales, while other varieties had a dull trading atmosphere. Affected by weak downstream demand, cotton yarn prices were slow to rise, the cotton - yarn price spread narrowed, and spinning mills' confidence and willingness to start production declined [8][9]. - The quantity and price of all - cotton clothing grey fabrics continued to decline. Weaving factories are waiting for spring and summer orders, but their inventory is rising, and some may sell at reduced prices before the Spring Festival [9]. Group 3: Options - The implied volatilities of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are 7.2%, 11.9%, and 18.4% respectively. The 10 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [11]. - The PCR of the main contract's open interest is 0.6924, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume is 0.5785. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, while the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 284,007 lots and an open interest of 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for the January contract, 13,595 yuan/ton for the May contract, and 13,715 yuan/ton for the September contract. The ICE December contract settled at 62.77 cents, up 34 points; the March contract at 64.57 cents, up 34 points; and the May contract at 65.75 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 1.499 billion square meters of cotton products, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 9.789 billion square meters of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. The import value of textiles and clothing was $9.53 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and prices rose, while the spot market remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that recent downstream sales have slowed down, finished product inventories have increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market has intensified [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, with the main 03 contract settling at 64.57 cents, up 0.53%. The driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has support and pressure in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing stocks. In the long - term, it depends on policies and weather. Strategies include selling high and buying back the spread between January and May contracts and going long on far - month contracts at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 26 was 13625, down 20 (-0.15%) from November 25; CF05 was 13585, up 5 (0.04%); CF01 - 05 was 40, down 25 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 26, it was 14700, up 101 (0.69%); in Henan, 14896, up 48 (0.32%); in Shandong, 14951, up 41 (0.27%); Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1075, up 121 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 26 was 20070, up 5 (0.02%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20660, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 64 (USD/ pound), unchanged; the arrival price was 73.30, up 0.3 (0.41%); 1% quota delivery price was 12830, up 51 (0.40%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 13868, up 31 (0.22%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6445, up 25; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 1038, down 20; the spot internal - external spread was 2121, down 10 [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed-price quotations for machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) were mostly around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan on a legal weight basis, with a small number of low prices between 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. The lower basis for the same-quality spot was CF01 + 1000 - 1150, and the higher sales basis was CF01 + 1150 - 1350, with sporadic low prices below 1000. The mainstream basis for machine-picked cotton of Grade 41 in Northern Xinjiang (excluding light speckled stains, double 29/impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 900 and above, for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened, with new orders decreasing. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. High-count yarns maintained a good sales trend recently, with prices basically stable. The prices of other types of yarns were stable with a slight decline, and some manufacturers reduced prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The all-cotton garment greige fabric market remained sluggish. The inventory level was still on the rise. Due to poor demand, there was severe homogeneous competition for conventional varieties, and the performance of some differentiated varieties was also mediocre, with scarce demand. In the export market, there was an obvious shortage of terminal orders, and the competition for orders among greige fabric mills was fierce [7]. - Overseas market: As of the week ending October 9, the weekly signing volume of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/26 season was 35,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 21% and an increase of 1% compared with the average level of the previous four weeks. Among them, Vietnam signed 18,500 tons, and China signed 3,800 tons. Domestic market: As of November 25, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide reached 3.869 million tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous day. Currently, there has been little change in the market order volume downstream. The operating rate of yarn mills remained stable, and the inventory pressure of downstream finished products was not high. Spinning mills made purchases of raw materials based on rigid demand. With limited changes in the fundamentals, it is advisable to try to go long at low prices under cost support and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of November 25, 2025, a total of 1,050 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume nationwide was 17,138,406 bales, totaling 3.869 million tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 16,978,379 bales, totaling 3.8331 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland areas was 82,303 bales, totaling 182,000 tons [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to the cotton market, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian Rupee exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: In Malaysia, the BMD crude palm oil futures may gradually recover and rise after the release of risks following the MPOB report and as India returns to the market next month. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, with an expected support level at 8200. - Soybean oil: The uncertainty of biodiesel policies and short - term soybean export data affect the CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestically, the increase in soybean oil production and weak downstream demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the poor oil - mill profit and weak demand for soybean meal support the price. The spot basis quotation will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry The market supply is recovering, and the demand support is limited. Although there are sporadic epidemics in the Northeast, large - scale outbreaks are unlikely. The pig price is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating structure, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [4]. 2.3 Meal Industry The US soybean market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the South American new - crop soybean planting progress is good. Domestically, the soybean inventory is high, and the meal supply is loose. The meal price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [6]. 2.4 Corn Industry The corn price in the Northeast is strong due to limited logistics and storage support, while the price in North China is affected by the increase in supply. The demand side has different inventory replenishment intentions. The short - term supply - demand mismatch makes the futures price strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by concentrated grain sales [9]. 2.5 Sugar Industry The ICE raw sugar futures are rising. Although the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region is expected to increase in the first half of November, the early end of the harvest and lower ethanol inventory support the price. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [13][14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry The ICE cotton futures are rising due to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report and a weaker dollar. Domestically, the high production of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the strong basis and downstream demand support the price. The cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry The current egg price is below the feed cost line, and the inventory in production and circulation links has decreased. It is expected that the egg price will have limited downward space and will oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to the support at the previous low [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean oil**: On November 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8510 yuan/ton (up 0.24% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2601 was 8144 yuan/ton (down 0.29% from the previous day), and the basis was 13.66%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm oil**: On November 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8370 yuan/ton (down 0.71% from the previous day), the futures price of P2601 was 8360 yuan/ton (down 1.48% from the previous day). The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 8932.4 yuan/ton (down 1.08% from the previous day), and the盘面 import profit was - 543 yuan/ton (down 5.32% from the previous day) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On November 25, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10190 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of OI601 was 9818 yuan/ton (up 0.41% from the previous day), and the basis was - 9.71% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract price of live pigs was 11995 yuan/ton (up 0.59% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread was - 580 yuan/ton (down 10.48% from the previous day), and the main contract position decreased by 4.44% [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with the price in Henan dropping by 150 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.04%, the white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37%, and the外购 breeding profit decreased by 14.10% [4]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of M2601 was 3013 yuan/ton (up 0.07% from the previous day), and the basis was - 18.18%. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian February shipments increased by 333.3% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan/ton (up 0.82% from the previous day), the futures price of RM2601 was 2431 yuan/ton (down 0.61% from the previous day), and the basis was 583.33%. The盘面 import profit for Canadian January shipments increased by 9.54% [6]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in Harbin was 3940 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4108 yuan/ton (down 1.01% from the previous day), and the basis was 20% [6]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 was 2242 yuan/ton (up 0.99% from the previous day), the basis was - 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread was 52.27%, the import profit increased by 8.49%, and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 7.46% [9]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 was 2556 yuan/ton (up 0.83% from the previous day), the basis decreased by 84%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.13%, and the starch - corn 01盘面 spread decreased by 0.32%. The profit of Shandong's starch enterprises increased by 1000% [9]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures market**: The sugar 2601 futures price was 5387 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread increased by 21.57%, and the main contract position decreased by 2.73% [13]. - **Spot market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.59%, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.62% [13]. - **Industry situation**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the sales increased by 9.17%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 41.20%, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures market**: The cotton 2605 futures price was 13580 yuan/ton (up 0.37% from the previous day), the cotton 2601 futures price was 13645 yuan/ton (up 0.44% from the previous day), the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the main contract position increased by 0.09% [15]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.17%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.26%, and the FC Index: M: 1% increased by 0.18% [15]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory increased by 24.2%, the import volume decreased by 10%, the textile industry's inventory decreased by 25%, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures indicators**: The egg 12 - contract price was 2950 yuan/500KG (down 1.42% from the previous day), the egg 01 - contract price was 3210 yuan/500KG (down 0.25% from the previous day), and the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 13.08% [18]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.11%, the egg - chick price decreased by 3.57%, the culled - hen price decreased by 3.96%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%. The breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The production - link inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 2.22% [18].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile upward trend. The latest price index of Grade 328 cotton was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price of machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang was around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton on a legal weight basis, with a few low prices at 14,500 - 14,600 yuan/ton. The basis of the same quality of spot goods was between CF01 + 1000 - 1350, and a few low prices were within 1000. The mainstream basis of machine-picked cotton of Grade 41 in Northern Xinjiang was above CF01 + 900 [7]. - The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market decreased, with fewer new orders. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. High-count yarn maintained a good sales trend, and the price remained stable. The prices of other varieties of yarn decreased slightly, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The market for all-cotton garment greige fabrics remained sluggish, and the inventory level was still rising. The conventional varieties faced intense homogeneous competition due to poor demand, and the demand for some differentiated varieties was also scarce. In the export market, there was a significant shortage of terminal orders, and the competition among greige fabric mills for orders was fierce [7]. - Overseas, as of the week ending November 21, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 1.5066 million tons, accounting for 49.1% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 15% slower than the same period last year. In the domestic market, the purchase of cottonseed in Xinjiang was almost completed, and the daily inspection volume was at a peak. The market's expectation of Xinjiang's cotton production in the 2025/26 season increased with the progress of the purchase. The downstream market remained weak. Last week, the finished product inventory of spinning mills increased slightly, and the operating rate decreased slightly. In some local areas, the sales of some products were relatively good, and the pressure on the finished product inventory of downstream enterprises was not high. Spinning mills made rigid purchases of raw materials. Recently, after the cancellation of warehouse receipts from the 2024/25 season, there were few warehouse receipts from the 2025/26 season. In the short term, supported by cost, it was advisable to try to go long at low prices and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8]. Operation Suggestions - In the short term, supported by cost, try to go long at low prices and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8] 2. Industry News - As of November 23, 2025, a total of 1,044 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the reform plan of the cotton quality inspection system. The cumulative inspection volume was 16,370,365 bales, totaling 3.6958 million tons, an increase of 92,000 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 16,221,448 bales, totaling 3.6625 million tons, an increase of 91,400 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in inland areas was 77,487 bales, totaling 17,100 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to the cotton market, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/INR exchange rate. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, significantly boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is turning, and it's advisable to follow key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [6]. - Domestic: Domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has been stable since May's 10 - basis - point cut. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [6]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, the Fed's October meeting minutes being hawkish, and strong September non - farm payrolls data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market risk appetite may improve in the short term. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a near - term rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Endogenous momentum is weak. Policy - based financial instruments, special bond issuance, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure. The loan prime rate has been stable. Housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but real - estate physical work has declined [6]. - **Asset Views**: Due to Fed policy uncertainties, asset prices were initially pressured. After the dovish speech, market risk appetite may improve. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed, and hedging forces are taking profits. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention on option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed higher. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly weakened, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policies [7]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand have slightly declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Near - month delivery is under pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weakened with the sector, but cost support remains. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price has declined with the sector, but cost support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot losses are increasing, and cold - repair expectations are rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Coal prices have fallen, weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to differences within the Fed, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is decreasing, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has decreased, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw - material supply is tight, and prices are strongly supported. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and policies [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are volatile, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are volatile, and supply pressure continues. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on cost - side developments [9]. - **Asphalt**: The rise of rebar prices has driven up asphalt futures. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia - Ukraine agreement has weakened fuel prices. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has followed the weak crude - oil market. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances are confirmed, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro - energy and overseas production stoppages [9]. - **Urea**: Centralized procurement has slowed, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on export quotas and Indian tenders [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and some short - sellers have closed positions. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade [9]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations, macro events, and aromatics blending [9]. - **PTA**: Fundamentals have improved marginally, and profits are being repaired. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations and macro events [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand is stable, and it follows the upstream market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on downstream purchasing and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Cost support has increased, and prices have rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on production cuts and new - plant commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: Fundamental pressure is priced in, and attention should be paid to maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has faded, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and plant operations [9]. - **PVC**: High inventory is suppressing prices, and it may be tied to production cuts. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation and weak supply - demand conditions lead to price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are diverging, with palm oil being weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Rapeseed - meal prices have risen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Bullish drivers continue, and prices have risen again. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on demand, the macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Floods in production areas have boosted bullish sentiment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, raw - material prices, and the macro - economy [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw - material transactions support prices. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have rebounded, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have continued to rebound. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The balance of long and short factors remains, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the macro - economy and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Paper**: It is following the raw - material market and fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on shipments and dispatches [9].

Group 1 - The State Council will hold a press conference on November 27 to discuss policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, and promoting consumption [1] - From January to October, China's total foreign direct investment reached $144.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while new contracts for foreign engineering projects amounted to $210.7 billion, up 18.6% year-on-year [1] - A-share buyback amounts have exceeded 130 billion yuan this year, marking the second-highest level in history, with over 100 companies doubling their stock prices after implementing buybacks [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the communication and media sectors leading the gains, while defense and transportation sectors lagged [2] - The financing balance decreased by 2.88 billion yuan to 2.4423 trillion yuan on November 24, indicating cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches [2] - The "Fifteen Five" plan continues to focus on technological self-reliance, suggesting that the technology sector remains a long-term investment direction [2] Group 3 - Palm oil inventories continue to accumulate, with a 16.4% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports expected for November 1-25 [3] - The domestic supply of rapeseed oil is under pressure due to increased raw material supply, leading to price declines [3] - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate as supply pressures emerge from overseas production, while domestic production transitions to the off-season [3] Group 4 - The National Space Administration has issued a plan to promote the high-quality and safe development of commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, establishing a national commercial aerospace development fund [8]