研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡偏强。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15020 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 82 元/吨。2024 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 交割规则改变，纸浆冲高回落 棉花观点 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13465元/吨，较前一日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.22%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14780元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，现货基差CF09+1315，较前一日变动+46；3128B棉全国均价14894元/吨， 较前一日变动+15元/吨，现货基差CF09+1429，较前一日变动+45。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司(CONAB)6月份发布的2024/25年度最新产量预测数据：本年度巴西棉花总 产预期为391.3万吨，较上一月调增0.8万吨。本年度种植面积下调至208.15万公顷，单产上调至125.3公斤/亩。Conab 小幅上调巴西棉产量评估，但种植面积下调。不过由于23/24年度陈花销售较好，下调了24/25年度期初库存，因此 期末库存评估下调。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。宏观方面，中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过此次谈判中 并没有明显利好中国对美出口的协议达成，宏 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 23, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,500, down 15; trading volume was 35,530 lots, an increase of 5,786 lots; open interest was 154,498 lots, an increase of 58 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,470, down 25; trading volume was 1,183 lots, an increase of 332 lots; open interest was 5,608 lots, an increase of 492 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,465, down 30; trading volume was 184,987 lots, an increase of 38,955 lots; open interest was 515,356 lots, a decrease of 9,626 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,770, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 37 lots, unchanged [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,550, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 0 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19,700, down 35; trading volume was 5,219 lots, a decrease of 931 lots; open interest was 21,159 lots, a decrease of 498 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,894 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; CY IndexC32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan [3] - Cot A was 77.55 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21,892 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 75.82 cents/pound, unchanged; Indian S - 6 was 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 30, up 10; 5 - 9 spread was 5, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 35, down 15 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 1,220, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was - 1,150, up 35; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, down 35 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,270, up 15; CY05 - CF05 was 5,080, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6,235, down 5 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,154, up 15; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 444, up 15; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,592, down 776 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending June 12, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 18,900 tons, a weekly increase of 38%, a 23% decrease from the four - week average, and a 56% year - on - year decrease; 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 62,300 tons, a 146% year - on - year increase [6] - 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 46,400 tons, a 13% week - on - week decrease, a 24% decrease from the four - week average, and a 3% year - on - year increase [6] - According to CONAB's June 2024/25 production forecast, Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [6] - Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the overall basis remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high basis was not high [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton trends. Currently, China's commercial cotton inventory is at a low level. If the de - stocking rate remains the same, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton is listed, and cotton prices may fluctuate slightly stronger [8] - Recent international changes are significant. Rising crude oil prices may drive up the prices of all commodities. Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission member Kousari said that the Iranian Parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton fabric market remained sluggish. Weaving mills reported little change in recent orders, mainly small and scattered orders. Overall, production was cut, and the operating rate was low. The transaction price of grey cloth was negotiated according to order volume. Most weaving mills focused on optimizing cash flow [9] - The pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish. Spinning mills' prices remained stable, and their willingness to reduce prices for sales decreased significantly. The phenomenon of production restrictions and shutdowns among inland spinning mills increased significantly, and the operating rate continued to decline [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On June 23, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 222.00, down 23.2%; the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 24.00, down 31.4%; the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 16.00, up 14.3% [11] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2915, with slightly lower volatility than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 was 9%, CF509 - P - 12600 was 12.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200 was 15.4% [11] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.9702, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6577. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

Group 1: Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump announced that Iran's nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed," aiming to eliminate Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities to curb nuclear threats [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of severe retaliation against U.S. interests in the Middle East, and there are discussions in Iran's parliament about potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz [1][5] - The market is concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. involvement, leading to a bullish opening in Middle Eastern stock markets on June 22 [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - U.S. stock indices predominantly declined, with small-cap stocks weakening, while China's major indices remain at low valuation levels, suggesting a favorable long-term investment environment [2][9] - The financing balance in China decreased by 7.479 billion yuan to 1.80918 trillion yuan as of June 19 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices rose approximately 2.5% following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, with Iran's parliament agreeing to potentially block the Strait of Hormuz [3][11] - The number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. fell to 438, the lowest since October 2021, down by one from the previous week and down by 47 year-on-year [3][11] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold and silver prices continued to retreat amid escalating Middle Eastern tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which has not yet made significant moves despite ongoing inflation concerns [4][17] - The market is currently anticipating a potential easing of trade conflicts, but the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to provide long-term support for gold prices [4][17] Group 5: Industry-Specific News - The domestic gold jewelry processing industry faces long-term challenges due to declining marriage and birth rates, which are expected to reduce the rigid demand for gold jewelry [8] - The overall demand for gold jewelry, driven by weddings and childbirth, accounts for over 30% of the domestic gold jewelry market, and a continued decline in this demand could lead to overcapacity in the industry [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is in a state of shock, with the domestic market having a tightening supply - demand expectation in the later part of this year, but the new - year planting area is increasing and the demand is in the off - season. The international market is affected by the USDA report and weather conditions, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle, with the 25/26 season's supply changing from shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is dragged down by the weak external market [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,775 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan's exports: In May 2025, textile and clothing exports were 1.531 billion US dollars, down 1.75% year - on - year and up 25.42% month - on - month [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil's ports: As of the week of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, down 56,500 tons (1.94%) from the previous week [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,254 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian needles was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Imports: China's pulp imports in May 2025 were 3.016 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, but the macro - environment is still uncertain [2] - International: The USDA report adjusted down the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and the ending stocks decreased. The US cotton - growing areas have improved drought conditions [2] - Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is accelerating the destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [2] Sugar - International: Although energy prices support the international sugar price, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India and Thailand has put pressure on the price [5] - Domestic: The domestic sales data is good, but the supply pressure is increasing due to the weakening of the external market [6] Pulp - Supply: The long - term contract price of Arauco has been continuously lowered, and the domestic imports have increased. The port inventory is at a high level [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak. The papermaking industry is in the off - season [7] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the cotton price to fluctuate in a range in the short term [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral - to - bearish strategy, and focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the pulp price to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

Industry - The industry being reported on is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was dated June 20, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is weak, with spinning mills selling at discounted prices, and downstream orders are difficult to improve. The cotton fabric market is also sluggish, with large fabric mills having less-than-expected orders and accumulating inventory [7] - The Fed has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, causing a sharp decline in overnight ICE cotton futures. The US cotton planting progress is 85% (compared to 89% last year), and the good-to-excellent rate is 48% (compared to 54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply and demand report increased US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending inventory to 960,000 tons. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or slightly increase. There is a risk of high-temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. In May, yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year, and cloth production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. The downstream industry is currently weak, with finished product inventory gradually accumulating and the operating rate decreasing again. In the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range. Pay attention to macro changes [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is weak, with spinning mills selling at discounted prices, and downstream orders are difficult to improve. The cotton fabric market is also sluggish, with large fabric mills having less-than-expected orders and accumulating inventory. It is expected that autumn orders will start later than usual [7] - **Macro and Market Analysis**: The Fed has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, causing a sharp decline in overnight ICE cotton futures. The US cotton planting progress is 85% (compared to 89% last year), and the good-to-excellent rate is 48% (compared to 54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply and demand report increased US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending inventory to 960,000 tons. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or slightly increase. There is a risk of high-temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. In May, yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year, and cloth production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. The downstream industry is currently weak, with finished product inventory gradually accumulating and the operating rate decreasing again. In the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range. Pay attention to macro changes [8] 2. Industry News - In May, China's yarn production was 1.951 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; cloth production was 2.67 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; and chemical fiber production was 7.349 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. From January to May, cumulative yarn production was 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; cumulative cloth production was 12.63 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; and cumulative chemical fiber production was 35.037 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy and financial markets are being significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, central bank policies, and macroeconomic data [2][13][18] - The commodity market, especially the energy and metal sectors, is experiencing price fluctuations due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand dynamics [2][3] - The bond market shows a complex situation with different trends in yields and prices, affected by factors like credit supply - demand and central bank operations [21][26] - The stock market has seen declines in both A - shares and Hong Kong stocks, with individual stocks and sectors performing differently [29][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, unchanged from the previous quarter but up from 5.3% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, down from 50.4% [1] - Social financing scale in May 2025 was 22871.00 billion yuan, up from 11591.00 billion yuan in the previous month [1] - CPI in May 2025 was - 0.1% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous month but down from 0.3% in the same period last year; PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, down from - 2.7% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, believing that the Fed should have cut interest rates by 2.5 percentage points, which could save billions on short - term debt [2] - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, Brent crude futures have an implied geopolitical risk premium of about $8/barrel, which may expand if the US intervenes [2] 3.2.2 Metals - China is accelerating the review of rare - earth export license applications and has approved a certain number of compliant applications [3] - 95% of respondents expect global central banks to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, and UBS expects the gold price to reach about $3500/ounce by the end of this year [3] - Silver prices have risen by over 11% since June, breaking a 13 - year high, driven by industrial demand recovery [3] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Canada will take additional tariff measures to address overcapacity and unfair trade in the steel and aluminum industries [6] - First Quantum is preparing to ship copper from its Panama mine [6] - Indonesia is strengthening its steel industry by focusing on stainless - steel production in the oil and gas field [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC Secretary - General said that global oil demand remains resilient and will be an important part of the energy structure in the next two decades [7] - Different institutions have different forecasts for oil prices under different scenarios of Iranian oil supply disruptions [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The global cotton market may see a large - scale increase in production, which may put pressure on cotton prices when new flowers are listed in October [10] - The large - scale wheat harvest in China's "Three Summers" is basically over, with a 96% harvest progress as of June 18 [10] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 19, the central bank conducted 2035 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 842 billion yuan [12] 3.3.2 Key News - China's President Xi Jinping proposed four points on the Middle East situation during a call with Russia's President Putin [13] - Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but has not issued a final order yet [13] - The central bank of some European countries cut interest rates, while the US and UK maintained their rates [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market - Bank - to - bank main interest - rate bonds' yields mostly rose, and treasury - bond futures showed a differentiated trend [21] - Exchange - traded bonds had different price movements, with some rising and some falling [21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 14 points, while the central parity rate was up 32 points [25] - The US dollar index fell 0.12%, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [25] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the credit - bond market has a prominent performance, and short - end coupon assets are preferred [26] - Huatai Securities suggests a "high - odds + left - hand + trading - oriented" allocation strategy [27] 3.4 Stock Market - On Thursday, A - shares fell unilaterally, with over 4600 stocks declining, while oil and gas stocks and solid - state battery concepts rose [29] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.99%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.42% [30] - Bubble Mart's stock price fell over 5% on June 19 due to a slump in the secondary market of its Labubu series [31]