Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The corn market is expected to trade in a range, with the C2601 contract oscillating between 2000 and 2300 yuan/ton. The cost support at around 2000 yuan/ton is strong, and there is rigid demand for corn. However, the traditional selling pressure in the fourth quarter and the bumper harvest of new - season corn limit the upside potential of prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Corn spot and futures prices are strong, and the national corn selling progress is 24%, with a 2% week - on - week increase but a slowdown in growth rate. North China's selling progress is 23%, and Northeast China's is 19%, both relatively fast year - on - year. However, the progress in each province has slowed down to some extent. The price increase is due to factors such as price hikes by state - owned grain depots and traders, but there are issues with export ports, and downstream enterprises' willingness to build inventories at high prices is average [10]. Corn Import - Corn import volume has significantly decreased. In September 2025, the import volume of ordinary corn was 60,000 tons, an 80.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 890,000 tons, a 92.92% decrease compared to the same period last year. The USDA estimates that China's corn import volume in the 2025/26 season will be 8 million tons, 2 million tons less than the previous forecast [17][18]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat is out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has increased. In September 2025, the import volume of barley was 1229300 tons, a 30.86% year - on - year increase, and the import volume of sorghum was 674600 tons, a 30.53% year - on - year decrease [21][23]. Demand Feed and Livestock Farming - The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the farming profit is poor. In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 88.0%, 2.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Self - breeding and self - raising pig farming, broiler farming, and egg - laying hen farming are all in a loss state [33][34]. Deep - processing - The production profit of deep - processing has deteriorated again, and the consumption of alcohol is relatively high. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises has increased, with Shandong at around 78% and Heilongjiang at around 92%. The production of corn starch has increased to 328,400 tons, and the downstream pick - up volume has remained stable at 383,400 tons. The consumption of corn by alcohol enterprises has slightly decreased to about 420,000 tons [52]. Inventory - Channels and downstream inventories are still low, while starch inventories are significantly high. As of November 7, the inventory of the four northern ports is about 1.07 million tons, the inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized at about 20 days of available inventory, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is about 2.74 million tons. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises is about 1.13 million tons, a record high in the same period in the past eight years [69][70][71]. Basis and Spread - The spreads between different corn contracts (9 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 9), starch contracts, and the spread between corn and starch contracts are provided, showing different price differences at different times [129][131]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On November 13, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [133].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil in Malaysia is expected to have a record - high production in 2025, pressuring the benchmark price. However, Indonesia's B85 policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term but could face resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the US soybean production cut in the USDA report was less than expected, causing CBOT soybeans to decline. In China, soybean oil inventory is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak, with a possible short - term correction for Dalian soybean oil [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance due to factors like farmers' reluctance to sell and transportation issues, leading to a price rebound. But considering the large supply during the new - season harvest, the upward movement is limited, and attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. 2.3 Sugar - India's sugar export in the 25/26 season may face short - term difficulties, and Brazil's supply is in a relaxed state. The raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is likely to remain volatile next week [7][8]. 2.4 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. Globally, production has increased, and demand has only slightly risen, leading to an increase in ending inventory. In China, new cotton supply is high in the short - term, and downstream demand is weak, but some local products offer support. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [9]. 2.5 Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet for soybeans met market expectations. There is a lack of substantial positive factors for US soybeans, and China's high soybean inventory and reserve rotation expectations suppress the market. Bean meal is expected to trade in a wide range [11]. 2.6 Eggs - The supply of eggs remains high due to stable laying - hen inventory, and demand is in a seasonal slump. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed, the market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. 2.7 Pigs - The spot price of pigs is weak, but the market may strengthen tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may support prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited upside and downside in the short - term. A 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan, up 0.35% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan, down 0.72%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan, down 1.23%. The basis of P2601 increased by 70.33%. The import cost and profit decreased [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan, up 0.29%. The futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan, down 0.52%. The basis of OI601 increased by 28.77% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port fluctuated. The basis increased by 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.63%. The import profit increased by 5.00% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, and the starch - corn 01 spread decreased by 0.31% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.76%, and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.53%. ICE raw sugar increased by 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.46% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased. The import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while the national sales rate decreased. The industrial inventory in some regions increased [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.19%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.30%. ICE US cotton decreased by 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 300.00% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Xinjiang and the CC Index decreased slightly. The basis increased [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory, import volume, and some other indicators increased, while textile exports decreased [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.33%, and the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.68%. The basis decreased by 52.38%. The import crushing margin decreased significantly [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 25.00% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The price of the soybean No.1 futures contract increased by 2.08%, and the soybean No.2 futures contract increased by 0.37%. The basis of both decreased [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 0.23%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread increased by 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.34%. The basis decreased by 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - chick prices remained unchanged, and the egg - feed ratio decreased. The breeding profit decreased [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the pig 2605 decreased by 0.33%, and the 2601 decreased by 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.00%. The basis increased by 103.57% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions fluctuated. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.74% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, and the piglet price increased slightly. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, China's corn production is expected to reach 300 million tons for the first time in history. With the harvest almost complete, the supply - demand structure is gradually moving towards balance. In the long - term, there is a tight supply expectation under mild production increase pressure, weakening import pressure, and stable demand [1]. - In the short - term, the corn market has shown a strong performance due to reduced supply and downstream price - raising purchases. However, the price may face intermittent pressure as the selling peak at the end of the year tests its resilience [1]. - The corn starch market has also run strongly this week, supported by rising raw material prices, good order shipments, and tight local supply [1]. - The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week, but the bearish November supply - demand data led to a sharp decline on Friday, erasing most of the gains from Monday to Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: In the Northeast, state reserve purchases support the market, and in North China, the reluctance to sell has reduced short - term supply. The downstream's price - raising purchases have supported the weekly strength of the corn market. China's corn production increase is certain, and the market is still digesting the price pressure from the production increase. The corn price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [7]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: China's corn supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With a sharp reduction in corn and substitute grain imports and a possible decrease in high - quality corn production in North China, the medium - term supply - demand structure may tighten. The price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth - quarter supply peak, and buyers should pay attention to the participation opportunities at the price bottom [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The sign of the end of the pull - back is more obvious, and the probability of finding the bottom continues to increase. Technically, the 01 contract is supported at the 2100 - yuan mark and rebounds along the 5 - day moving average [8]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Mid - and downstream enterprises should be aware of the risk of rising long - term procurement costs. Grain - holding entities with low - cost inventory can consider partial inventory hedging at high prices to avoid pull - back risks [8]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - **Basis strategy**: The spot and futures prices are moving in sync, with a weaker increase in the production area. The port basis fluctuates narrowly, and no strategy is recommended [8]. - **Monthly spread strategy**: The decrease in spot supply has led the near - month 01 contract to perform strongly, narrowing the spread between near - and far - month contracts. The "sell near, buy far" strategy is temporarily withdrawn for observation [8]. - **Hedging arbitrage strategy**: Due to the fundamentals of soybeans and corn, it is not suitable for inter - variety arbitrage. The wheat - corn spread has narrowed but is still outside the substitution range. The starch - corn spread has little change, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now. The pig - grain ratio's rebound space is uncertain, and arbitrage is on hold [11][12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.25% and a volatility percentile of 38.4%. For starch, it is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a volatility of 7.81% and a volatility percentile of 15.39% [18]. - **Risk strategies for the fourth quarter**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts, with corresponding scenarios, hedging tools, trading directions, and suggested entry intervals [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: State reserve purchases continue to support the market, the early sales progress is fast, and farmers' reluctance to sell has reduced the effective circulating grain sources. Terminal enterprises have to raise prices to increase arrivals [19]. - **Negative information**: The increase in U.S. corn supply pressure due to the bearish USDA supply - demand report, and the possible increase in selling pressure after the price rises [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monitor whether the price increase stimulates an increase in selling pressure [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures market has continued to strengthen this week. The main 01 contract rose 1.68% to 2185 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest, a slight increase in trading volume, and an increase in registered positions. The starch market has also strengthened in sync with corn, with a similar increase rate [20][21]. - **International market**: The CBOT corn futures rose more than 1% this week but fell sharply on Friday due to bearish supply - demand data, and the rebound trend has weakened [53]. 3.3.2 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Starch - Corn Spread - **Basis structure**: After the new season started, the basis between the mainstream price at Jinzhou Port and the main contract is in a reasonable range, with little change. However, the basis in the production areas has weakened [25]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The spread between near - and far - month corn contracts has weakened this week, and the term structure has flattened. The starch basis in the main production areas has also weakened [35]. - **Starch - corn spread**: The spread has fluctuated slightly this week, and the "buy starch, sell corn" arbitrage is not recommended for now [49]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: It is better than last year, especially in the Northeast production area [57]. - **Trading profit**: The stable and strengthening corn price is conducive to trading enterprises' purchasing and sales activities, and the inventory profit is improving [57]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The profit from corn - to - starch has slightly declined due to the rebound in corn prices and limited follow - up of starch spot prices. The profit from the corn - to - ethanol industry has continued to decline [57]. - **Disk profit**: The basis at Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. There is hedging profit for far - month contracts, but considering the bottom of the spot price, it is not advisable to enter the market for hedging [57]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has increased as the domestic price has risen more strongly than the international price [59]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **China's corn**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in planting area, production, import, consumption, and inventory in different years. The annual surplus is expected to be 3.55 million tons in 2025/26 [63]. - **Global corn**: The world's corn supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in beginning inventory, production, import, consumption, export, and ending inventory in different years. The stock - to - use ratio is expected to be 21.97% in 2025/26 [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is gradually decreasing from the peak. The selling pressure will be reduced as the temperature drops in the Northeast. The proportion of high - quality corn in North China has decreased due to rainfall. Although the overall supply is still high, there may be a shortage of high - quality corn [65]. - **Import**: From January to September 2025, China's cumulative import of corn and corn flour was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. In September, the import was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [65]. - **Inventory**: The port corn inventory has not increased significantly, and the overall inventory is still at a low level, providing space for future corn purchasing and sales [67]. - **Foreign corn**: The U.S. corn harvest is nearing completion, and the supply pressure is high. The bearish USDA supply - demand report on the 14th has increased the supply pressure [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - **Consumption**: The operating rates of major products have continued to rise. The feed demand is supported by the peak slaughter season and secondary fattening, and the overall demand in the fourth quarter remains good [71]. - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The feed production is high, and the feed enterprise inventory has rebounded but is still at a low level. The pig - raising profit has changed little this week, and the reduction of pig production capacity may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [71]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn has attracted downstream enterprises to increase their operating rates, driving up corn consumption. However, the growth trend has slowed down due to rising raw material prices and insufficient price increases for terminal products [74].

豆粕周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 USDA 报告利多兑现 连粕震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆1月合约涨5.25收于1122.5美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅0.47%；豆粕01合约涨34收于3092元/吨，涨幅 1.11%；华南豆粕现货涨40收于3040元/吨，涨幅1.33%； 菜粕01合约跌49收于2490元/吨，跌幅1.93%；广西菜粕 现货跌40收于2590元/吨，跌幅1.52%。 ⚫ 美国农业部报告发布前，利多预期支撑，外盘偏强 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand welcomes the U.S. decision to eliminate additional tariffs on a range of its agricultural products, including beef, offal, and kiwifruit, while expressing a desire for the complete removal of all extra tariffs on New Zealand goods [1] Group 1: Tariff Changes - The U.S. President Trump recently canceled tariffs on over 200 food items, including beef, due to consumer concerns over rising food prices in the U.S. [1] - The products affected by the tariff removal account for approximately 25% of New Zealand's exports to the U.S., valued at around $1.25 billion annually [1] Group 2: Government Response - New Zealand's Trade Minister stated that the decision to remove these tariffs is a step in the right direction, but emphasized that it is only a partial adjustment [1] - The ongoing framework of reciprocal tariffs continues to impose costs and uncertainty on New Zealand exporters [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful integration of online and offline sales strategies at the agricultural expo, leading to increased sales of quality agricultural products [2] - Participating companies showcased their best products with enthusiastic staff engaging in product demonstrations and tastings, attracting a large number of consumers [2] - Live streaming sessions featured energetic hosts who provided detailed introductions to specialty agricultural products, utilizing real-time demonstrations and limited-time promotions to drive online orders [2] Group 2 - The dual-channel approach not only expanded the sales channels for agricultural products but also facilitated a seamless purchasing experience for consumers, resulting in a win-win situation for both businesses and customers [2]

11月15日，2025年上饶·广丰马家柚推介暨冬之韵促消费活动启动。市委书记陈云出席启动仪式并宣布活动启动，市委副书记、市长李建涛为2025年上饶· 广丰马家柚品鉴评比特等奖获奖单位颁奖。 省农业技术推广中心党委书记郑敏、阿里巴巴控股集团副总裁王威、市人大常委会副主任吴曙、副市长解鸳、市政协副主席廖健、市委秘书长孔先锋、市 政府秘书长毛祖宾等出席启动仪式。 此次活动是我市推动农文体旅商深度融合发展的又一有力举措，汇聚了上百家企业特色农产品与文旅产品，为群众提供一站式购物体验，进一步激发冬季 消费市场活力。活动将持续至12月，涵盖品鉴评比、线上线下联动营销、南昌、北京、上海等城市专场推介等内容。 活动期间，市民到现场参与丰富互动，通过打卡集章、社交分享等环节即可获得扭蛋币，有机会赢取烈儿宝贝签名周边、新鲜马家柚等精美礼品。现场还 设有柚子DIY雕刻、柚趣报纸机等趣味体验项目，让市民在购物之余感受别样乐趣。 启动仪式上，发布了上饶市区域公用品牌"饶享食刻"，并与授权企业进行了签约，为消费者选购上饶特产提供了统一标识；宣布了2025上饶广丰马家柚品 鉴评比获奖名单；启动了上饶·广丰马家柚淘宝天猫"2025 寻味山河 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The November USDA supply - demand report is bullish but fails to provide unexpectedly strong bullish factors, leading to a decline in soybean prices. The report tightens the 2025/26 US soybean balance sheet by reducing key data such as yield, total production, and ending stocks. Although there is no super - bullish news, the tightness of the US soybean balance sheet becomes normal. If US soybean export demand recovers later, its ending stocks may further decrease. The report provides support for US soybean prices, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal are expected to have limited downside space. Currently, there are no further bullish factors, and upward momentum needs a market opportunity [1][43]. - Later, attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather. After the substantial progress in China - US economic and trade consultations, if China's purchases of US soybeans resume as expected, US soybean prices may have limited downside and potential upward momentum. As of now, South American soybean - growing regions have no major weather threats. If there are no major threats later, it is necessary to monitor when the market will start trading the pressure of Brazil's bumper harvest [2][44]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 11 November USDA Supply - Demand Report - **Global and US Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Adjustments in 2025/26** - **Production**: The global soybean production forecast for 2025/26 is 421.75 million tons, a decrease of 4.12 million tons compared to September. The US production is reduced by 1.3 million tons due to a slight decrease in yield, while other major producers like Brazil, Argentina, and China remain unchanged [4]. - **Consumption**: The global soybean consumption forecast for 2025/26 is 421.54 million tons, a decrease of 2.35 million tons compared to September. Consumption in the US decreases by 10,000 tons, Argentina by 1.7 million tons, and Brazil increases by 1 million tons, with no change in China [5]. - **Export**: The global soybean export volume forecast for 2025/26 is 187.97 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons compared to September. US exports decrease by 1.36 million tons to 44.5 million tons, Argentina's increase by 2.25 million tons to 8.25 million tons, and Brazil's increase by 500,000 tons to 112.5 million tons [5]. - **Import**: The global soybean import volume forecast for 2025/26 is 186.41 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared to September. Argentina's imports increase by 500,000 tons, with no change in China and the EU [5]. - **Ending Stocks**: The global soybean ending stocks forecast for 2025/26 is 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons compared to September, as the reduction in supply exceeds that in demand [8]. - **Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The global soybean stock - to - use ratio in 2025/26 is about 20.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The US ratio is 6.74%, a decrease of 0.16%. This indicates that the supply - demand balance sheets of global and US soybeans have tightened, which is bullish for soybean prices [8]. - **Global Soybean Meal Supply - Demand Situation in 2025/26** - The November USDA report slightly increases the global soybean meal ending stocks and marginally raises the stock - to - use ratio in 2025/26, having a slightly bearish impact. The global soybean meal production is forecasted at 286.42 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons compared to September; consumption is 283.24 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons; export volume is 81.55 million tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons; ending stocks are 18.27 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons; and the stock - to - use ratio slightly increases. Brazil's soybean meal ending stocks increase, while those of Argentina, India, the EU, and China slightly decrease, and the US remains unchanged [33]. 2. Later Focus - **US Soybean Exports**: After the substantial progress in China - US economic and trade consultations, the US soybean export is expected to return to normal. From late October to early November, China made small - scale purchases of US soybeans. The November USDA report decreased the US soybean export forecast instead of increasing it, possibly because the adjustment is based on actual export data, and the progress in China - US soybean trade consultations has not yet been reflected in the actual data. Later, the actual situation of China - US soybean trade should be monitored. If China's purchases gradually resume, the USDA reports may be adjusted accordingly [38]. - **South American Weather**: Since September 2025, soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have successively entered the planting season. As of early November, the planting progress in both countries is slow. There are weather issues but no major threats, so the market has not yet traded on South American soybean production. According to the latest weather forecast, in mid - to - late November, the main soybean - growing regions in Brazil and Argentina will have slightly less precipitation and normal temperatures, indicating no major weather threats currently. Later, continuous attention should be paid. If there are no major threats, it is necessary to observe when the market will start trading the pressure of Brazil's bumper harvest [39].

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【文/观察者网 王恺雯】"不再依赖美国大豆的中国，已经掌握主动权：在双方关系紧张时暂停采购，在 关系缓和时恢复购买。"对于中美大豆贸易，香港《南华早报》11月16日刊登的文章如此评论道。 文章提及，今年4月，随着美国升级对华贸易战，中国采取了一系列反制措施，对美国大豆征收的进口 关税一度超过114%，中国大豆压榨企业干脆更换供应商，从巴西订购了创纪录的大豆。巴西政府也大 力推动铁路基础设施建设，确保对亚洲的长期快速供应链。与此同时，阿根廷也在9月暂时取消农产品 出口税，增加美元储备，以便更多大豆输入中国。 随着中美贸易关系缓和，美方上月底称，中国已同意在明年1月前采购1200万吨美国大豆，并在未来三 年每年至少采购2500万吨美国大豆。在这一预期的推动下，芝加哥期货交易所大豆价格大幅上升，美国 中西部农民欢呼雀跃。 文章作者、香港大学当代中国与世界研究中心苏世民访问学者大卫·奥科隆科沃（David Okoronkwo）认 为，在美国农民庆祝的表象之下，一个更为低调的事实是：大豆已不再是华盛顿的武器，而是北京 的"保单"。大豆交易看似是特朗普的胜利，但实际上悄然确认了全球权力格局的深度转移。 文章指出，大豆曾象 ...