行业 贵金属日评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美国三季度经济增速远超市场预期推高美债利率，但市场臆测联邦政府 停摆将拖累美国四季度经济增长，同时美联储主席候选人继续呼吁美联储降息， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，流动性溢价与计价货币因素继续推动贵金属板块偏强运 行；广期所铂钯行情未见停止迹象，但近期价格飙升也累积了内在调整风险，加 上圣诞节期间成交稀少价格波动性上升，建议投资者适当降低仓位。总体看在年 底消费旺季、美联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金 属板块特别是工 ...

重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货持平，报 4505.4 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货涨 1.04%，报 71.88 美元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.16%报 6088 元/克，沪银 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月25日，早盘贵金属板块震荡走弱，浩通科技、贵研铂业、盛达资源、白银有色、国 城矿业均跌超5%，湖南黄金、山东黄金、西部黄金等跟跌。 ...

摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市。现货黄金盘中触及4526.15美元历史新高后小幅回落，可能形成 看跌收盘反转顶部形态，但因圣诞假期临近，此次回落或为投资者获利了结。美元指数小幅回升，对金 价涨势影响有限，逢低买盘持续。 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市。现货黄金盘中触及4526.15美元历史新高后小幅回落，可能形成看跌 收盘反转顶部形态，但因圣诞假期临近，此次回落或为投资者获利了结。美元指数小幅回升，对金价涨 势影响有限，逢低买盘持续。 美国国债收益率几无变动，交易员观望。黄金突破4500美元非孤立现象，避险需求等支撑涨势。目前市 场缺乏利空催化剂，买方主导。分析师认为，央行购金步伐放缓是涨势唯一威胁，若维持当前水平，预 计2026年底金价达5000美元。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，截至12月20日当周，季调后初请失业金人数录得21.4万人，环比减少1万 人，连续两周下降且低于市场预期的22.4万人，四周移动平均值同步降至21.675万人，短期新裁员压力 有所缓解。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金白盘先涨后跌，于4500关口震荡。晚盘因明日停盘，或震荡收尾，4小时现墓碑线，短期难续单边 行情，预计 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a significant surge recently, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $4,525 per ounce, spot silver surpassing $70 per ounce for the first time, and spot platinum breaking $2,300 per ounce [1] - Following the sharp increase, there was a collective pullback in precious metals, with spot gold dropping to $4,448 per ounce, spot silver to $70.1 per ounce, and spot palladium to $1,676 per ounce [1] - Analysts attribute the recent surge in precious metals to a combination of expectations for liquidity easing, geopolitical instability, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - Affected stocks in the A-share market saw declines, with Guoyan Platinum down 5.76%, Yinxing Nonferrous down 5.26%, and Shengda Resources down 4.62% [2] - Other notable declines included Guocheng Mining down 4.56%, CITIC Metal down 3.70%, and Hunan Silver down 3.56% [2] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains for some companies, with Shengda Resources up 147.97% and Yinxing Nonferrous up 100.72% [2]

Group 1 - Precious metals are experiencing a significant surge in prices, driven by geopolitical risks, ongoing global supply shortages, and strong investment demand, with gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce for the first time in history [1] - The recent strength in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts in December, higher-than-expected unemployment rates, and lower-than-expected CPI, which have increased the likelihood of rate cuts in January [1] - Central banks' continued large-scale purchases of gold provide a solid foundation for the current bull market, with global gold ETF holdings increasing every month this year, except for May, and the largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) seeing its holdings grow by over 20% this year [1] Group 2 - The silver LOF (Listed Open-Ended Fund) has seen a surge, with a price increase leading to a premium close to 70%, attracting market attention for arbitrage opportunities [2] - Investors can take advantage of the price difference between the LOF's market price and its net asset value by purchasing at net value and selling at the higher market price, although this strategy carries inherent risks [2] - The high premium and price increase have led to a spillover effect, causing multiple commodity LOF products to hit their price limits, indicating strong market interest [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with sectors like consumer electronics, power equipment, semiconductors, and aerospace performing well, while precious metals, insurance, commercial retail, and food and beverage sectors lagged [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark due to factors such as funding disturbances, policy expectations, and fluctuations in overseas liquidity [1] - Investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities in the market, with an emphasis on monitoring macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and domestic policy developments [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is projected to maintain a slow bull market through 2026, driven by a gradual recovery in the economic fundamentals [2] - The market is expected to shift from valuation enhancement to performance improvement, providing sustained upward momentum for valuations [2] - Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence in the bull market narrative and focus on selecting stocks based on industry growth and economic conditions, rather than being distracted by short-term fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

Global Economic Outlook - In 2025, the global macroeconomic environment shows unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs [1] - Precious metals have performed particularly well, with COMEX gold rising by 60.84% and Shanghai silver increasing by 112.87% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI global index has increased by 20.70% since the beginning of the year, with emerging markets in Asia outperforming those in Europe and the US [1] Market Performance - The Shenzhen Composite Index has risen by 28.02% and the CSI 300 by 17.20% in China, while the Korean Composite Index has surged by 71.12% [1] - The MSCI Vietnam Index has increased by 61.08%, and the Nikkei 225 in Japan has risen by 26.37% [1] - In contrast, major US indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have seen increases of 21.33% and 16.95%, respectively [1] Investment Strategies - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards US equities due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification [4] - HSBC has reduced its overweight position in the US market, emphasizing the importance of Asian markets [4] - Fidelity International is focusing on emerging markets like China, South Korea, and South Africa for more attractive valuations [4] AI Investment Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is recognized as a core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware to broader ecosystem value creation [7] - AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and grow to approximately $500 billion in 2026 [7] - The revenue potential of AI-enabled applications is projected to reach $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [7] Chinese Economic Policy - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy in 2026 will continue to focus on fiscal stimulus and supportive monetary policy [10] - The fiscal deficit is expected to rise, providing strong support for economic growth, while monetary policy will aim to support the real economy [10] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be between 4.5% and 5% [11] Asset Allocation - Given the high correlation between traditional assets, diversification is increasingly important, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [13] - Gold is expected to maintain its position as a significant diversification asset, supported by central bank demand and a weak dollar [13] - In fixed income, the trend of de-dollarization and Asian policy easing creates favorable conditions for local currency government bonds [14]

Group 1 - Precious metals prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4500 per ounce and silver surpassing $72 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [3] - The A-share market saw mixed reactions, with mining ETFs initially rising before retreating, and some stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold closing lower [3] - Analysts believe that the weakening of the US dollar's credibility is becoming clearer, enhancing gold's monetary attributes and supporting its long-term outlook [3][4] Group 2 - The London spot gold reached a daily high of $4525.19 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, while silver saw a rise of approximately 140% [3] - Several A-share stocks, including Xingye Yinxin, Zijin Mining, and Chifeng Gold, have increased by over 100% this year, supported by improved industry profitability [4] - The global gold ETF holdings have risen for six consecutive months, reaching 3932 tons by the end of November, with China being the largest single source of net inflows [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle by September 2025, alongside escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to the continued rise in gold and silver prices [5] - Historical data indicates that gold has outperformed the S&P 500 in 7 out of 8 past rate-cutting cycles initiated by the Federal Reserve [6] - Institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for precious metals, with some projecting gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6]