Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, entering the expansion range, which is bullish. The spot price shows a discount to the futures, and the inventory has increased, which is neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, and the main positions are net long but with long positions decreasing, both being bullish. Geopolitical disturbances remain, and copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level, so attention should be paid to position control [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. Key Points by Directory Daily View - The supply side of copper has disturbances and smelting enterprises have production - reducing actions. The scrap copper policy is relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range, which is bullish [3]. - The spot price is 100870 with a basis of -470, showing a discount to the futures, which is neutral [3]. - On January 23, copper inventory increased by 3450 to 171700 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 12422 tons to 225937 tons compared with last week, which is neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply [4]. - Bearish factors: The US comprehensive tariff exceeds expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic. High copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, import is 3730000 tons, export is 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [21]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].

黄金、白银深夜跳水，国内黄金股大面积跌停 1月29日晚间，黄金市场现"惊魂一夜"。当时市场还沉浸在金价创新高的喜悦中，纽约金逼近5600美元 关口。然而，接近午夜行情急转直下，金价连续跌破5400美元、5300美元、5200美元三道关口，一度跌 至5126美元附近。这场暴跌不仅限于黄金，白银市场跌幅更为惨烈。纽约银半个小时跳水超9%，铂金 和钯金也同步大跌，贵金属市场几乎全线崩溃。 每经记者｜闫峰峰 每经编辑｜吴永久 国内市场方面，上期所的黄金期货主力合约从1242元/克在1个小时内最低跌至1140元，1小时内最大跌 幅超8%。 虽然，黄金市场暴跌行情在今日0点之后有短暂的反弹，如沪金期货一度反弹至1200元/克之上，不过今 日国内期货市场开盘后不久，贵金属再度下探，沪金期货主力合约一度跌至1154元/克。最终，沪金期 货主力合约收盘下跌4.71%，沪银期货主力合约收盘下跌6.03%。 黄金市场这场资本风暴迅速蔓延股市。1月30日，A股三大指数集体低开，黄金板块领跌，同花顺黄金 板块指数跌幅一度超9%，有9只黄金股跌停。同时，贵金属板块的下跌，也带动工业金属板块的下跌： 同花顺工业金属指数下跌近7%，金属铜指 ...

极目宏观 系列研究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 经济差异的资产表现 — 2026 年 01 月宏观经济与资产月报 宏观策略研发报告 【内容摘要】 美国经济正逐步走出 10 月政府关门的影响，经济数据表现出韧性。这预示 美国经济基本面处于现实需求驱动的状态中。就业稳健和收入上行保证了美国经 济在逐渐摆脱美国政府关门影响后，将呈现逐步上行的状态。短期的不确定是美 元流动性仍处于较为紧张的状态， 在美国现实消费支撑经济，货币政策、政治事件等不确定性频繁的情况下， 美元资产走势也体现出整体向好，波动巨大的特征。美债震荡、信用利差收窄； 美股再试前高，纳指和道指轮涨；实际需求驱动有色等大宗商品价格；美元国际 货币地位弱化导致美元指数下滑。 2025 年国内经济经济增速下行的背后是投资和消费支撑力度的下降以及进 出口支撑力度的延续，经济短期体现出一定的季节性因素。从 2025 年中国经济 表现展望未来，经济增速改善已在体现，但幅度和节奏仍具有一定的短期特征， 短期，倾向于关注政策预期和消费变化，中长期关注广义财政力效果、新质生产 力发展和经济内生动力恢复情况。 对国内经济短期的关注点使得政策引导人民币持续升值预期下， ...

其中，伦敦现货黄金半小时内狂泻超400美元至5100美元/盎司附近，单日振幅近10%。现货白 银跌超8%，失守107美元/盎司关口。COMEX黄金跌近4%，COMEX白银跌6%。现货铂金跌近 7%，现货钯金跌近5%。 华闻期货研究所所长程小勇对经济观察报记者表示，贵金属的大幅回调，与三大风险有很大关系： 一是美联储在1月没有继续降息；二是避险买盘消退，反映市场恐慌的VIX指数在1月29日降至 16.88，一般高于20代表市场恐慌；三是贵金属多头甚至程序化交易的持仓集中平仓所致，因贵 金属多头极度拥挤，一开始是小范围止盈平仓，稍后会因引发大范围的多头踩踏式出逃。 一位头部期货公司副总经理对经济观察报记者表示，黄金大涨后大跌，日内波动500美元。前期地 缘政治紧张格局，包括美国和委内瑞拉、美国和伊朗导致黄金白银加速上涨。另外，弱美元也加强 了这一走势。最近十个交易日黄金涨幅超过一千美元，不断打破历史新高，过快的上涨导致部分获 利盘了结头寸，出现大幅波动。 狂飙突遇暴跌 截至1月30日上午休市，COMEX黄金期货最活跃合约较历史高点回落幅度超过7%，跌破了5200 美元/盎司；上海黄金期货4月合约价格较昨日创下的高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that gold futures remained stable with a total of 103,029 kilograms in warehouse receipts, while the market experienced significant fluctuations in gold prices on January 30, 2023, with a notable decline of 4.71% by the end of the trading day [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold futures opened at 1,246.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,251.28 CNY and a low of 1,140.00 CNY during the day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the price settled at 1,162.42 CNY per gram, reflecting a decrease of 4.71% [1] - Trading volume was reported at 894,024 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 24,521 contracts to a total of 211,820 contracts [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The initial surge in gold prices was driven by heightened risk aversion, but a subsequent decline occurred due to liquidity shocks from falling tech stocks [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) results were in line with expectations, suggesting that short-term policy impacts have been fully priced in [1] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, and the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on comprehensive tariffs contribute to increased market uncertainty, which is generally favorable for gold [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为78.74%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.465万吨，环比增加0.03%,乙烯法 企业产量13.743万吨，环比减少3.86%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排 产少量增加。 利多：供应复产，电石，乙烯成本支撑；出口利好。 利空：总体供应压力反弹；库存持续高位，消耗缓慢；内外需疲弱。 主要逻辑：供应总体压力强势，国内需求复苏不畅。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.86%，环比增加.950个百分点，高于 ...

2026-01-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：美国国防部长赫格塞斯周四表示，美国军方将做好准备，执行特朗普总统对伊朗做出的任 何决定，以确保德黑兰不会寻求发展核武器能力；克里姆林宫表示，俄罗斯已重申邀请乌克兰总统泽 连斯基前往莫斯科举行和平会谈。目前，在美国主导下结束这场已持续近四年的乌克兰战争的努力正 在加速；特朗普称与参议院民主党就避免政府关门达成临时协议，为国土安全部提供两周资金，以便 继续谈判；中性 2.基差：1月29日，阿曼原油现货价为66.67美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为66.15美元/桶，基差 20.23元/桶，现货升水 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30甲醇早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：供需基本面弱势对后期甲醇仍有一定压制，预计本周国内甲醇延续弱势。内地方面，甲醇装置检修量有限， 叠加春节前上游工厂出货诉求明确，另外运力紧张致使运费易涨难跌，多重因素之下，产区甲醇价格或持续承压。销区 市场虽受运费上行带动，到货成本有所抬升，对价格底部形成支撑，但传统下游需求表现平淡，且山东恒通烯烃装置传 出检修计划，进一步弱化需求端支撑，市场利空氛围浓厚，局部行情不排除走跌可能。同时考虑到当前产销区价格已处 于绝对底部空间，成本端的支撑显现，整体跌幅有限。港口方面，一季度海外供应减少和港口库存逐步去库对市场形成 底部支撑，变量因素在于下游开工下降需求减少的程度及中东装置供应减量持续的时间及恢复预期，预计本周港口市场 震荡为主，需求减少 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 29, the A-share market continued its narrow consolidation. Liquor stocks saw a wave of limit - up in the afternoon, and gold stocks remained strong. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.16% at 4,157.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.3%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%, the North - bound 50 Index fell 1.69%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 3.03%, the Wind All - A Index fell 0.23%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.5%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.3%. The total A - share trading volume for the day was 3.26 trillion yuan, compared with 2.99 trillion yuan the previous day [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Quotes Review - **Index Closing Price and Changes** - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 Index was 2,948.88, with an increase of 100.71 and a daily increase of 1.65%. The trading volume was 31.109135 billion, and the trading value was 100.71 billion yuan - The closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4,753.8697, with an increase of 0.76. The trading volume was 41.551 billion, and the trading value was 917.966 billion yuan - The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 8,332.2067, with a decrease of 0.80%. The trading volume was 401.99 billion, and the trading value was 677.736 billion yuan [3] - **China Financial Futures Exchange Stock Index Options Trading Situation** - **Shanghai 50 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 6.93 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 5.06 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 7.97 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 4.87 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.73, and the open interest PCR was 0.61 - **CSI 300 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 8.23 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 9.11 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 20.85 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 12.63 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 1.11, and the open interest PCR was 0.61 - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: The trading volume of call options was 33.22 million contracts, and the trading volume of put options was 32.21 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 16.19 million contracts, and the open interest of put options was 16.02 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.97, and the open interest PCR was 0.99 [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Volatility Analysis** - The historical volatility cone shows the maximum, minimum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile values, as well as the current values of HV5, HV20, and HV60 - The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of the next - month at - the - money options of the Shanghai 50 Index [3] - **CSI 300 Volatility Analysis** - The historical volatility cone presents the maximum, minimum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile values, along with the current values of HV5, HV20, and HV60 - The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of the next - month at - the - money options of the CSI 300 Index [3] - **CSI 1000 Volatility Analysis** - The historical volatility cone displays the maximum, minimum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile values, together with the current values of HV5, HV20, and HV60 - The volatility smile curve shows the implied volatility of the next - month at - the - money options of the CSI 1000 Index [3]

1月30日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，PVC期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨 3.62%，报5073.00元/吨。 供应方面，华联期货指出，当前供应压力总体仍偏高，不过2026年国内仅有浙江嘉化30万吨新增产能， 国外原计划的阿联酋项目计划推迟，供应扩张进入尾声。 库存方面，广州期货介绍，截至1月29日，样本总库存来看，华东及华南原样本仓库总库存54.36万吨， 较上一期增加1.78%，同比增加22.88%。华东及华南扩充后样本仓库总库存106.82万吨，较上一期增加 1.70%，同比增加33.89%。 后市来看，光大期货表示，PVC整体表现为弱现实强预期结构，但是出口在4月1日之后不再退税，长期 会有上行压力，而短期反而会有支撑，预计PVC价格维持底部震荡。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，终端地产、基建正处低温淡季，春节临近下游企业陆续休假停 工，下游节前促销带来的需求难以持续。短期出口预期仍较好，但对国内供需矛盾缓解有限，库存预计 维持高位上升趋势。 ...