Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum resource sector, indicating a positive outlook due to supply disruptions in bauxite and alumina prices [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Guinean government's revocation of multiple bauxite mining rights may lead to a domestic bauxite shortage, potentially supporting bauxite and alumina prices [6][7]. - The report suggests that the acquisition of overseas potassium fertilizer projects by Salt Lake Co. could enhance its global presence and production capacity [6][7]. - The report expresses optimism for the performance of small metals such as tin, cobalt, and antimony in the medium to long term [6][7]. Industry Overview Aluminum Industry - The report notes that as of May 2025, there are 126 listed companies in the aluminum sector with a total market capitalization of approximately 288.51 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates that Guinea accounts for 26% of global bauxite reserves and 29% of global production, with China importing 110 million tons of Guinean bauxite in 2024, representing 69.4% of total imports [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a shift from surplus to shortage in domestic bauxite supply, which could lead to price support for bauxite and alumina [6][7]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - The report discusses Salt Lake Co.'s intention to invest around 300 million USD in acquiring shares of Highland Resources, positioning it as a major stakeholder and enhancing its control over key potassium projects [6][7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with clear growth potential in tin and cobalt, such as Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum [6][7].

评级：推荐(维持) 证券研究报告 2025年05月18日 有色金属 铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，政策定调积极（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-04-28 《铝行业周报：去库表现强势，关注需求及出口走向（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-04-21 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓解，铝价压制减弱，关注需求变化（推荐）*有色 金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-04-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.7% | 1.3% | -0.0% | | 沪深300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -16% -8% 1% 9% 17% 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2024, China's total scrap aluminum recycling volume was 11.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. The supply growth rate of old scrap aluminum was 11.6%, and that of new scrap aluminum was 1.6%. It is estimated that the growth rate of scrap aluminum supply will decline to 1.9% and 4.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][37]. - China's annual primary aluminum production is about 43.5 million tons. After rough calculation based on the recycling rate, scrap aluminum accounts for 18.5% of the total aluminum supply. To meet a 1% growth in consumption, the scrap aluminum supply growth rate needs to reach at least 5.5%. With limited primary aluminum supply, the increment of new scrap aluminum supply is scarce. It is expected that the increment of new scrap aluminum supply in 2025 will be 1%, so old scrap aluminum needs to achieve a growth rate of over 7.5%. Therefore, the tight supply situation of scrap aluminum will be difficult to ease in the next two years [2][9][37]. - The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum continues to decline. In addition, the price of industrial silicon has dropped significantly. Even when producing with primary aluminum and adding 11% industrial silicon, its production cost - effectiveness is gradually emerging. If the scrap aluminum price remains high, there is a possibility of primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum in the later stage, which can be used as a reference for arbitrage of the price difference between A00 and ADC12 [2][28][37]. - In Q2 2022, due to factors such as the geopolitical crisis and the Fed's interest - rate hikes, the A00 aluminum price dropped significantly due to recession trading factors. As a result, the ADC12 - A00 price difference showed abnormal seasonal performance. From 2023 to the current position in 2025, the ADC12 - A00 price difference has shown regular seasonal fluctuations [3][31][38]. - The ADC12 - A00 price difference can be simply understood as the aluminum ingot basis or the aluminum ingot spot premium or discount. ADC12 is more focused on cost and actual supply - demand strength, while the A00 aluminum ingot is more affected by macro factors. When the inventory is low and actual consumption strengthens, the ADC12 price is firm, and the A00 spot premium rises. When the inventory is high, even if consumption is strong, the ADC12 price and the A00 spot premium situation will not be optimistic [3][32][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cost - side Analysis of ADC12 Price 3.1.1 Insufficient Increment of Scrap Aluminum Supply in the Next Two Years - The domestic scrap aluminum market supply is tight. Although the scrap aluminum supply is increasing, the procurement sources for aluminum alloy plants are decreasing due to the promotion of scrap aluminum grade - preserving recycling. The theoretical calculation shows that the scrap aluminum supply growth rate will decline in the next two years, posing challenges to cost control and raw - material channels for aluminum alloy manufacturers [7]. - The slowdown in scrap aluminum supply growth in the next two years is mainly due to factors such as China not entering the real - estate aluminum recycling period yet, the slowdown in scrap aluminum recycling from electronic and durable goods due to the impact of the epidemic, and the decline in scrap aluminum supply from transportation and machinery equipment caused by the previous slowdown in consumption growth. However, the actual scrap aluminum recovery volume from automobiles may be slightly better than the theoretical value due to the rapid development of new energy and government subsidies [7][8]. 3.1.2 Increased Procurement Difficulty for Aluminum Alloy Plants due to the Promotion of Scrap Aluminum Grade - Preserving Recycling - In the past, most of China's recycled aluminum could only be used for die - casting aluminum at a downgraded level. In 2024, the use of scrap aluminum in aluminum profiles and strips increased significantly, indicating that the mature aluminum in old scrap aluminum is being used at the original grade. Even though the scrap aluminum supply is increasing, the raw - material procurement for recycled alloy enterprises is becoming more difficult, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is narrowing [11]. 3.1.3 Analysis of the Relationship between Scrap Aluminum Price and ADC12 Price - The correlation coefficient between scrap aluminum price and ADC12 price is 0.91, and that between A00 and ADC12 price is 0.96. Scrap aluminum price affects ADC12 price mainly from the cost side, while the relationship between A00 and ADC12 is more about output and price correlation [16]. - The scrap aluminum price is affected by the primary aluminum price, but in a tight supply situation, scrap aluminum traders may hold back goods when the primary aluminum price drops. Seasonally, the scrap aluminum price is relatively stronger than the primary aluminum price around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum will remain at a low level in the next two years [16]. 3.2 Analysis of the Price Difference between ADC12 and A00 3.2.1 Analysis from the Perspective of the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Aluminum - The current theoretical production cost of ADC12 is about 20,150 yuan/ton, and the industry is facing a slight loss. With the high scrap aluminum price and the narrowing price difference between refined and scrap aluminum, as well as the significant decline in the industrial silicon price, there is a possibility of primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum if the scrap aluminum price remains high, which can be used as a reference for arbitrage of the price difference between A00 and ADC12 [26][28]. 3.2.2 Analysis from the Perspective of Consumption Seasonality - In 2022 Q2, the ADC12 - A00 price difference showed abnormal seasonal performance, while from 2023 to the current position in 2025, it has shown regular seasonal fluctuations. Around the Spring Festival, the high cost of scrap aluminum supports the ADC12 price, making the ADC12 - A00 price difference relatively high at the beginning and end of the year. In Q2, due to sufficient supply after the Spring Festival inventory accumulation and the influence of macro factors on A00, the ADC12 - A00 price difference weakens. From August to September, as consumption strengthens and supply becomes relatively insufficient, the ADC12 - A00 price difference gradually strengthens [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - International oil prices rebounded recently after approaching the low in early April. The potential implementation of Kazakhstan's production - cut commitment may lead to a correction of OPEC+'s rapid production - resumption policy. The strategy of buying put options and selling call options on crude oil proposed on April 15 can take profits [2]. - Precious metals rose for the second consecutive night. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported by the US dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties. However, short - term prices are volatile, and the focus is on the Fed meeting [3]. - Different commodities have different trends, including copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as various chemical and agricultural products, with corresponding trading strategies proposed based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [4 - 44]. Summary by Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rebounded. OPEC+ policy may change, and the previous option strategy can take profits [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Prices rose, with long - term upward support but short - term volatility. Focus on the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper led the rise, while SHFE copper and COMEX copper faced resistance. Consider short - selling the 2507 contract or continue long - spread arbitrage between near - month contracts [4]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly. High inventory during the May Day holiday, and resistance exists at 20000 - 20300 yuan. Consider selling hedging [5]. - **Alumina**: Production decreased due to maintenance, but re - production may occur. The price rebound is limited, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - **Zinc**: Domestic inventories increased after the holiday. Demand faces pressure, and short - selling on rebounds is the main strategy [7]. - **Lead**: Inventories increased slightly. There is a game between cost and consumption. Pay attention to the internal - external price ratio and support levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and prices decreased. Short - selling opportunities are being observed [9]. - **Tin**: Prices rebounded, but the upper resistance is obvious. Short - selling is the main strategy [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices continued to be weak. Inventories changed, and short - positions should be held [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are expected to decline in May due to supply and demand factors [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices continued to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to remain weak [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. Supply decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience. The trend is expected to be volatile [15]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices rebounded at night. Demand and supply have different trends. The market may stabilize in the short term [14]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Freight rates are under pressure. Seasonal recovery is limited, and new capacity in June may suppress prices. Pay attention to potential short - term market opportunities [16]. Energy - Related Products - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are volatile. High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and the sustainability of low - sulfur fuel oil's improvement needs to be observed [17]. - **Bitumen**: Prices followed oil prices but were relatively strong. Demand increased seasonally, and the crack spread reached a new high [18]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has support, while the domestic market is under pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Prices were boosted by export news. Supply is sufficient, but the supply - demand contradiction may emerge after the peak agricultural demand [20]. - **Methanol**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. Prices are expected to be weak [21]. - **Styrene**: The bear market continues. Production increases, and prices decline [22]. - **Polypropylene and Plastic**: Inventories increased during the holiday. Demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [23]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply pressure and weak demand. Caustic soda oscillates strongly, but there is no clear long - position driver [24]. - **PX and PTA**: Prices rebounded. PX valuation recovered, and PTA inventory decreased [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices rebounded, but the supply - demand drive is limited [26]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber prices followed the raw materials' rebound. Bottle - grade resin is in the peak demand season, and pay attention to the raw materials and potential production cuts [27]. - **Glass**: Production and sales were affected by the holiday, and inventory increased. The market is weak, but be cautious about short - selling near the cost [28]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure may ease in May due to maintenance. Do not be overly bearish in the short term, but look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Short - term soybean supply is sufficient, but there are uncertainties in the long - term. Soybean meal futures may be stronger than the spot in the short term [31]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil may see inventory increases in April. The market is expected to oscillate in the long term [32]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed futures market fluctuated. Pay attention to trade policies and look for long - position opportunities [33]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to policy guidance [34]. - **Corn**: The market is volatile. Be cautious about chasing long positions and wait for new supply [35]. - **Hogs**: The supply is expected to increase in the future. Pay attention to the decline in spot prices [36]. - **Eggs**: The supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season. A bearish view is taken in the long term [37]. - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progresses smoothly. Domestic demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations [38]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian production data is initially bearish. Domestic sugar may oscillate in the short term [39]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on new - season output estimates. The output may be lower than expected, but there is uncertainty [40]. - **Timber**: The market is weak. Supply and demand are both in the off - season [41]. - **Pulp**: Prices continue to decline. High inventory and weak demand, and the market is expected to remain weak [42]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - shares rebounded, and the short - term risk preference may continue to repair. Technology stocks may be stronger [43]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated. Domestic liquidity may improve, and the market may remain range - bound [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro: Positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain negative. After the copper price fell from its high, terminal consumption recovered, and social inventories continued to decline. As of April 24, the copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [4]. - Overall Logic: Trump's tariff remarks are volatile, market sentiment has eased, and the copper price has rebounded to fill the gap. Attention should be paid to whether there will be new macro - level positive support, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: Similar to copper, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [6]. - Fundamentals: Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is at a high level, the start - up of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is stable, social inventories are in a seasonal destocking cycle, and aluminum product exports have declined significantly. Attention should be paid to domestic demand support [6]. - Overall Logic: The negative impact of US tariff increases has gradually been released. There are no major contradictions in the aluminum fundamentals. This week, it may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the gap position above, and be vigilant against risks in the overseas market during the May Day holiday [6]. Alumina - Macro: Similar to copper and electrolytic aluminum, positive policy signals from domestic important meetings and reduced US tariff negatives have cooled market risk aversion. Attention should be paid to negotiation progress [8]. - Fundamentals: As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 740,000 tons. Due to recent concentrated maintenance and production cuts, the alumina operating capacity has been lower than the theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, and the spot supply of alumina has tightened [8]. - Overall Logic: The spot price of alumina has stopped falling recently, but the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals are still in surplus. A bearish outlook should be maintained in the medium term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Copper Market**: The average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 78,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,880 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various copper futures contracts also showed increases. LME copper prices and inventories also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Aluminum Market**: The average price of aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market was 20,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton. The closing prices of various aluminum futures contracts increased, and LME aluminum inventories increased [15]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina spot price index was 2,897 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The average prices of alumina in different regions also had small increases [15]. - **Weekly News**: In the first quarter, 11,906 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 91.77 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.7%. The Antamina copper mine in Peru is gradually resuming operations after an accident. The aluminum industry companies generally had good performance in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is soliciting opinions on the futures contracts, option contracts, and business rules of cast aluminum alloy [17]. 3.2 Macro Analysis On April 25, 2025, the Politburo meeting proposed new measures in central government leverage, consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and employment, aiming to promote economic development [19]. 3.3 Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC continued to decline. The spread between refined and scrap copper, import profit, and other indicators also showed corresponding trends [25]. - **Futures Market**: The net long positions in COMEX copper increased [28]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded, which had an impact on LME copper prices, spreads, and inventories [32]. - **Inventories**: As of April 24, the social copper inventory in major regions across the country dropped to 181,700 tons, achieving eight consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. The operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to rise to 81.81% this week [36]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum converged. The spreads between different aluminum products and the import profit also showed corresponding changes [42]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded, affecting LME aluminum prices, spreads, and net positions of different institutions [44]. - **Weekly Inventories**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod, and the inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME all showed different trends [46]. - **Downstream Start - up**: As of April 24, the overall start - up rate of the domestic aluminum downstream processing industry increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%. Different sub - industries had different performance, and the start - up rate is expected to decline slightly this week [48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were affected by the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and power coal [53]. 3.5 Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The domestic alumina spot price has stopped falling. The prices of alumina in different regions and related raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda also showed corresponding trends [56]. - **Futures Market**: The inventory of alumina futures remained at a high level. The basis and the relationship between alumina futures prices and other related futures prices also had corresponding changes [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina increased. On the demand side, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [62]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost pressure on alumina enterprises is relatively high. As of April 24, the industry cost was 3,337.48 yuan/ton, and the industry profit was - 445.73 yuan/ton [65].

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, May 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Based on the logic of marginal oversupply and a downward - moving cost center, it is advisable to short at high prices and consider bottom - fishing in stages. Attention should be paid to the impact of the resumption rhythm in the southwest on alumina inventory dynamics. The macro - risk pricing ratio remains relatively high due to the vacillating US attitude towards tariffs on China and the possible shift in Fed policies. Aluminum demand lacks resilience after a slow decline, and inventory may reach an inflection point for accumulation. Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with the spread between June and September having room to converge. Attention should be paid to the effects of domestic stimulus policies, tariff dynamics, and the resumption progress in Yunnan [3]. Summary by Directory Price - In April, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 2,846 yuan/ton on the 25th, a monthly decline of 3.1%. Shanghai aluminum also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20,030 yuan/ton on the 25th, a monthly decline of 2.2% [5]. Spread - In April, the alumina shifted from a premium of 146 yuan/ton to a premium of 26 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum shifted from par to a discount of 10 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that in April, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina decreased to 8,288 tons, with a production of 7.17 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased to 4,390 tons, with a production of 3.57 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The molten aluminum ratio slightly dropped to 73% [3][5]. Demand - As the peak season is approaching its end, the cable sector is showing a late - stage boost while other sectors are gradually weakening. In April, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25% compared to March. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 1.85% to 68.65%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 2.14% to 73.43%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.75% to 58.88%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 5.7% to 62.2%. The processing fees of aluminum rods increased across the board by 100 - 250 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of aluminum bars were stable with some increases, with Wuxi remaining stable and other regions increasing by 20 - 160 yuan/ton [3][5]. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory, in April, alumina inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 236,900 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 42,800 tons to 190,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 53,000 tons to 423,600 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 55,000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 169,000 tons to 658,000 tons; aluminum bar inventory decreased by 94,200 tons to 177,800 tons [3][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the issuance of the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)" by ten government departments, which aims to promote structural adjustments in the aluminum industry and enhance environmental performance [1][2] - The plan prohibits the addition of new electrolytic aluminum and alumina production capacity in key areas for air pollution prevention, while encouraging the transfer of aluminum industry capacity out of these regions [1][2] - By 2027, the plan targets a 30% increase in the proportion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity above the benchmark energy efficiency level, with a clean energy usage ratio of 30% and a new red mud comprehensive utilization rate exceeding 15% [1][2] Group 2 - The plan emphasizes optimizing the layout of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, with strict requirements for new projects, including a maximum aluminum liquid AC power consumption of 13,000 kWh/ton and achieving A-level environmental performance [2] - It supports the application of low-sulfur anode materials and aims to create benchmark enterprises that meet A-level environmental performance, while promoting the transfer of aluminum industry capacity from key pollution prevention areas [2] - The plan encourages the use of clean energy alternatives in the aluminum industry, discouraging the addition of new self-owned coal-fired units and promoting green electricity trading and investment in clean energy projects [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Bullish with a bias towards upward movement; Alumina: Neutral [11] - Aluminum: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum market is in a state of strong current reality but weak future expectations. Current consumption remains strong, social inventory is rapidly decreasing, and spot premiums are rising. Although there are concerns about future consumption due to tariff issues, the strong consumption may continue if overseas tariff policies loosen [4]. - Alumina prices are expected to show a weak trend. Although the spot price has slightly increased recently due to factors such as supply reduction from maintenance, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, and cost support is ineffective without large - scale production cuts [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Aluminum - Price: As of the week of April 17, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 2.14% to $2365.5 per ton, and the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 1.66% to 19,645 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [5]. - Supply: As of the week of April 18, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable and is expected to increase slightly in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.17 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.1 million tons, with a weekly increase of 20,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [5]. - Demand: According to SMM data, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream industries showed different trends. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises remained flat at 58.5%, the average operating rate of aluminum plate and strip decreased by 0.6% to 68%, the average operating rate of aluminum foil remained flat at 73%, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables and wires increased by 2% to 63.6% [5]. - Inventory: As of April 17, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 689,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from the previous week, and the aluminum rod inventory was 209,200 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 434,200 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from the previous week [5]. - Profit: As of April 18, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 16,550 yuan per ton, and the immediate production profit was about 3,300 yuan per ton, with a marginal maximum production cost of 18,300 yuan per ton [6]. Alumina - Price: As of the week of April 18, 2025, the main contract price of alumina increased by 1% to 2,818 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [9]. - Supply: As of the week of April 18, according to Aladdin data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 109.22 million tons, the operating capacity was 87.15 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100 tons, and the operating rate was 79.8%. Supply is expected to increase slightly in the future, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged [9]. - Cost: As of the week of April 18, the latest transaction price of bauxite dropped below $90 per ton, and the ocean freight increased by $1 to $20 per ton. The price of bauxite is still under pressure [9]. - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 4.001 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased by 6,000 tons, the inventory at stations and ports decreased by 4,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,000 tons. The pressure of warehouse receipt inventory on the market price remains [10]. - Profit: As of April 18, 2025, for high - cost enterprises using imported ore at $88 per ton, the full production cost was about 3,150 yuan per ton, with a production loss of about 300 yuan per ton. Enterprises using domestic ore also faced losses, and the import loss of alumina widened to - 256 yuan per ton [10].