Group 1 - Wang Yimin has resigned from the board of directors and related committees of Jiaozuo Wanfang due to personal reasons [1] - After his resignation, Wang Yimin will not hold any positions in the company or its subsidiaries [1] - As of the report, Jiaozuo Wanfang's market capitalization is 9.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, Jiaozuo Wanfang's revenue composition is entirely from the aluminum industry, accounting for 100% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to fluctuations in copper prices, with a focus on demand during the peak season of September and October [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a potential extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [4] - Lithium prices are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. retail sales for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [8] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the upper limit of the benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 4.02% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is 23.96, down by 0.80 from the previous week, while the PB_LF valuation is 2.87, down by 0.09 [19] 3. Copper - Copper prices saw a decline, with LME copper down 0.85% and SHFE copper down 1.42% [24] - Domestic copper inventories increased by 12.50%, indicating a potential oversupply [24] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased, with LME aluminum down 0.43% and SHFE aluminum down 1.00% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing a profit margin squeeze, with profits down to 4,793 CNY/ton [35] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45% to 73,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 2.02% to 859 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium prices may have bottomed out and are expected to recover [74] 6. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.93% to 16.30 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.84% to 277,000 CNY/ton [86] - The potential extension of the DRC's cobalt export ban could lead to a significant price rebound [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, as the ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season; the over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, the inventory accumulation trend continues, and the opening of the import window may exacerbate the oversupply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on September 19, the alumina index rose slightly by 1.34% to 2954 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 17,000 lots to 425,000 lots. Affected by the interest rate cut expectation, the non - ferrous sector rebounded during the week, driving the alumina futures price to rebound and then gradually decline after the interest rate meeting. The Shandong spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract, and the discount gradually converged [10]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [10]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 4461,000 tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 23,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 18,000 tons, and decreased by 13,000 tons respectively. The SHFE alumina warehouse receipts increased by 11,700 tons to 150,400 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 174,200 tons, an increase of 8900 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts further increased [10]. - **Mine End**: Domestic bauxite production has decreased recently due to environmental supervision in the north and the rainy season in the south, and the domestic ore price is expected to remain firm. For imported ore, the shipment from Guinea has decreased, which may lead to a decline in the arrival volume of imported ore, and the ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season [11]. - **Supply End**: The weekly domestic alumina production reached 1.861 million tons this week, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, hitting a record high [11]. - **Import and Export**: As of September 19, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 10 US dollars/ton to 323 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was 103 yuan/ton, with the import window opening. The increase in future imports may exacerbate the oversupply situation in the domestic alumina market [11]. - **Demand End**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.4 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 97.12% month - on - month [11]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The alumina spot prices in various regions continued to decline this week. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, 45 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [19]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3 pm on September 19, the alumina index rose slightly by 1.34% to 2954 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 17,000 lots to 425,000 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract, and the discount gradually converged. The month - to - month spread between contract 1 and contract 3 closed at - 21 yuan/ton [22]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea ore was 74.5 US dollars/ton, and that of Australian ore was 70 US dollars/ton. The shipment from Guinea decreased, and the ore price had short - term support [25]. 3. Supply End - **Bauxite Production**: In August 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%. The total production in the first seven months of 2025 was 40.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [28]. - **Bauxite Import**: In July 2025, China imported 20.06 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 33.75% and a month - on - month increase of 10.75%. The total import in the first seven months of 2025 was 123.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.69% [30]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In August, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 160,000 tons, and the total inventory reached 53.3 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. The inventory in Shanxi decreased by 120,000 tons, and that in Henan decreased by 40,000 tons [37]. - **Alumina Production**: In August 2025, the alumina production was 7.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.53% and a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The cumulative production in the first eight months of 2025 was 59.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.45% [39]. - **Alumina Operating Capacity**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of alumina was 94.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.87% and a month - on - month increase of 0.85%. The weekly domestic alumina production reached 1.861 million tons this week, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, hitting a record high [40]. - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina factories was under pressure. The production profit in Guangxi could reach 415 yuan/ton. The profit of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong was 120 yuan/ton and 180 yuan/ton respectively. Alumina factories in inland areas using overseas ore had a slight loss [43]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In July 2025, the net export of alumina was 103,500 tons. The import volume increased from 101,300 tons last month to 125,900 tons, and the export volume increased from 171,000 tons to 229,400 tons. The total net export in the first seven months of 2025 was 1.1786 million tons. As of September 19, the FOB price in Australia dropped by 10 US dollars/ton to 323 US dollars/ton this week, and the import profit and loss was 103 yuan/ton, with the import window opening [45][47]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In August 2025, the overseas alumina production was 5.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.21% and a month - on - month increase of 0.57%. The cumulative production in the first eight months of 2025 was 41.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62% [50]. 4. Demand End - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In August 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.788 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.26%. The total production in the first eight months of 2025 was 29.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% [54]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Operating Rate**: In August 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.4 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 97.12% month - on - month [57]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the supply and demand situation of alumina in each month from January to December 2025, including supply, demand, import, export, and supply - demand difference [59]. 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 4.461 million tons this week. The inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 23,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 18,000 tons, and decreased by 13,000 tons respectively [63]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE alumina warehouse receipts increased by 11,700 tons to 150,400 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 174,200 tons, an increase of 8900 tons from last week. The registered volume of warehouse receipts further increased [65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term. The results of the Fed's interest - rate meeting, changes in domestic aluminum social inventory, and the operating conditions of downstream processing enterprises will determine the subsequent breakthrough direction of aluminum prices [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On September 17, 2025, the al2510 contract of Shanghai Aluminum futures showed a volatile downward trend throughout the day, closing with a negative line, down about 0.38% from the previous settlement to 20910 points. The daily trading volume was 87,910 lots, and the open interest was 137,521 lots [2]. - The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 588,644 lots, a decrease of 10,552 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 decreased by 16,514 lots, indicating capital reduction during the decline [3]. 3.2 Spot Market On September 17, 2025, the basis of the main contract al2510 of Shanghai Aluminum strengthened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,890 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,910 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro - information**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting is imminent. The significant deterioration of the US employment market data has strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" by General Secretary Xi Jinping published in Qiushi Journal, aiming to rectify the disorderly low - price competition among enterprises, provides support for the market [7]. - **Fundamental information**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level and is approaching the "ceiling", with limited subsequent increments. With the arrival of the peak season, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has rebounded, and orders in related fields such as photovoltaics and automobiles have increased. However, high - priced aluminum significantly suppresses consumption, and the overall purchasing willingness is not strong. The electrolytic aluminum inventory fluctuates, and a stable de - stocking trend has not been formed [8]. - **Technical analysis**: The daily line of the al2510 contract of Shanghai Aluminum effectively broke below the 5 - day moving average and tested the support of the 10 - day moving average. The MACD red column shrank, the trading volume decreased, the open interest decreased, and market participants showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, non - ferrous commodities experienced an expected correction, and the aluminum spot discount quickly recovered. The supply side remained unchanged, and consumption showed positive signs. Although the social inventory performance was not satisfactory, attention should be paid to macro - influences, and the consumption in the seasonal peak season is expected to strengthen both at home and abroad [6]. - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina are running weakly. The supply surplus situation persists, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support of the alumina industry is relatively favorable, and the further decline space is limited. However, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently no rebound momentum [6][7]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 30 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by 15 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum main contract opened at 20,890 yuan/ton, closed at 20,785 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,900 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,705 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 227,638 lots, and the position was 250,178 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 638,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 74,465 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 513,900 tons, a change of 30,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On September 18, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,990 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,960 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,030 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,185 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 325 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 18, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,944 yuan/ton, closed at 2,931 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change amplitude of - 0.34%. The highest price was 2,977 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,916 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 433,801 lots, and the position was 306,866 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 18, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,400 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, non - ferrous commodities corrected as expected. The supply side remained stable, and consumption showed positive signs. The production of downstream processing enterprises such as aluminum rods, aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to increase month - on - month, and the downstream operating rate increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the macro - influence, the frequency of US interest rate cuts, and inflation data in the later stage. The consumption in the seasonal peak season is expected to strengthen both at home and abroad, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm of aluminum ingots and rods [6]. Alumina - The in - plant price of 10,000 tons of alumina purchased in Qinghai was 3,150 yuan/ton, equivalent to an ex - factory price of 2,970 yuan/ton in Shanxi. India closed a deal of 30,000 tons at FOB 331 US dollars/ton, and Indonesia closed a deal of 27,000 tons at FOB 318 US dollars/ton. The supply surplus situation persists, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support of the alumina industry is relatively favorable, and the further decline space is limited. However, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently no rebound momentum [6][7]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 460 yuan/ton. The November contract has become a peak - season contract, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9]. Arbitrage - Positive spread arbitrage for Shanghai aluminum [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate meeting outcome may lead to price corrections in the electrolytic aluminum market, but consumption is expected to strengthen seasonally. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking rhythm [6]. - The alumina market has a persistent oversupply situation. Although the previous low - price valuation led to a short - term rebound, there is still no strong impetus for a continuous rise [7][8]. - In the aluminum alloy market, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and factors such as contract spreads, tariff policies, and macro factors may affect the market [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton; Central China A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 180 yuan/ton; and Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,995 yuan/ton, closing at 20,975 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 16, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 637,000 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 75,734 tons, an increase of 649 tons; and the LME aluminum inventory was 483,775 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: On September 16, 2025, the alumina price in Shanxi was 3,005 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,970 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,040 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,190 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 335 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 2,945 yuan/ton, closing at 2,979 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 1.81% from the previous trading day [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On September 16, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 16,200 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 70,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,500 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 27 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting outcome may cause price corrections, but consumption is expected to strengthen seasonally. Attention should be paid to the meeting results and de - stocking rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and the short - term rebound is due to low - price valuation and short - covering. There is no strong impetus for a continuous rise [7][8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and factors such as contract spreads, tariff policies, and macro factors may affect the market [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season is clear. With the weak US data and strong interest - rate cut expectations, the consumption at home and abroad is expected to strengthen seasonally. Pay attention to the destocking rhythm [6]. - The supply of alumina continues to increase, resulting in a surplus situation. Although the cost support is relatively strong and the further decline of the futures price is limited, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently little upward momentum [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with its price following the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum supports the price, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities may be affected by the activity of aluminum alloy [9]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: East China A00 aluminum price is 20950 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central China A00 aluminum price is 20820 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21140 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21020 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - Inventory: As of September 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 63.7 million tons, up 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory is 75085 tons, up 2616 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 485275 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On September 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3015 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2980 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3050 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3200 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3220 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 340 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2916 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2935 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of 0.44% [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On September 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum is 16200 yuan/ton, the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum is 16400 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation is 20600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 7.08 million tons, and the in - plant inventory is 6.05 million tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost is 20373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 27 yuan/ton [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Shanghai Aluminum Futures - Researcher: Cao Baiquan 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short term, aluminum prices may continue to break through upwards and then fluctuate. The market is focusing on the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week. If a rate cut is implemented, it may further boost non - ferrous metal prices [14] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 12, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum al2510 contract showed an oscillating upward trend throughout the day, with significant fluctuations during the day session and a positive closing line. The daily trading volume was 165,717 lots, and the open interest was 209,277 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 611,039 lots, an increase of 41,680 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 increased by 4,695 lots, indicating capital inflow during the upward movement [5] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 12, 2025, the basis of the main contract Shanghai Aluminum al2510 weakened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 21,020 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract was 21,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 100 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro Information**: The global macro - environment has shown positive changes recently, providing upward momentum for the non - ferrous metal market. Weak US economic data has increased market bets on the Fed's rate - cut amplitude. Tensions in the Middle East have raised risk - aversion sentiment, and the strong performance of gold has also driven the non - ferrous metal sector. The fluctuating US dollar index has caused short - term disturbances to dollar - denominated commodities [8] - **Fundamental Information**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is rigid, with high operating rates in major production areas and capacity approaching the limit. The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite mining and transportation, leading to a decline in shipments, but high port inventories in China ensure sufficient overall supply. Downstream demand is showing signs of improvement with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, more active purchasing by downstream players, a slight increase in orders for aluminum processing plants, and a slight recovery in processing fees for some aluminum products [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2510 contract showed an increase in open interest and price on the daily chart, breaking through the upper limit of the trading range. The MACD formed a golden cross, the green bars continued to expand, trading volume increased, and long - position funds were active [10]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has short - term upside risks and medium - term downside pressures, suggesting holding a combination of short positions at high prices and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Precious metals are strong, with market focus on the Fed meeting's rate - cut amplitude and Powell's speech [2] - Copper, aluminum, and related alloys show different trends. For example, copper may see short - term price increases, while aluminum awaits demand feedback in the peak season [3][4][5] - Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as zinc having potential cross - market arbitrage opportunities [7] Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical premiums support the oil market, but medium - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, with surpluses of 164万桶/天 in 2025 and 267万桶/天 in 2026 [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market expects three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year, and tonight's US retail sales data is to be watched [2] - **Copper**: Driven by Sino - US consultations and precious metal trends, short - term Shanghai copper may rise to 8.2 - 8.25 million yuan, and long positions can take profits [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream start - up is seasonally increasing, and short - term resistance at the March high is to be tested [4] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand situations, such as zinc's tight overseas spot and potential cross - market arbitrage, and lead's supply reduction and resistance at 17,300 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 2: Industrial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Different industrial products like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, etc. have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by supply - demand, policies, and cost [12][13] Summary by Category - **Industrial Silicon**: Boosted by coal - related news, but fundamental improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract fluctuates between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and news from this week's industry self - discipline meeting is to be watched [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by cost and market sentiment, but demand improvement needs attention [14] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by supply increase and demand support from high - level molten iron [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are affected by "anti - involution" policies, with high volatility in the short term [15][16] Group 3: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies. For example, some products' prices are expected to be stable or fluctuate, while others may face supply or demand pressures [20][21] Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has declined, and high - sulfur may be stronger than low - sulfur in the short term due to geopolitical risks [20] - **Asphalt**: Expected to have short - term slowdown in shipments, but demand has room for improvement, and inventory is decreasing [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market is strong, and the short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong [22] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as urea's supply - demand balance and PVC's high - supply, low - demand situation [23][28] Group 4: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors like supply - demand, policies, and international trade. For example, soybean and related products' prices are affected by the Sino - US trade negotiation [35] Summary by Category - **Soybean and Related Products**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may cause soybean meal to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for domestic soybean meal [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: Consider buying soybean and palm oils at low prices in the long term, but pay attention to risk control [36] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own supply - demand and price trends, such as corn's price differentiation and egg's potential long - term opportunities [39][41] Group 5: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Financial products like stock index futures and treasury bond futures have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by macro - economic factors and policies [47][48] Summary by Category - **Stock Index Futures**: The market risk preference is expected to continue, and it is recommended to allocate positions to different styles and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The price increase is expanding, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The revision of the US non - farm payroll data截止March this year by 911,000, the lowest since 2000, indicates weak employment. The US 8 - month PPI was lower than expected and CPI met expectations, leading to high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. Chinese economic data were mixed: the export growth rate declined in August, the core CPI rose steadily, and the new social financing scale exceeded expectations [3]. - On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum supply side was basically stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase, and the subsequent supply of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease. The downstream aluminum processing开工率rebounded last week, but there were differences among sectors. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [3]. - Overall, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was strengthened, market risk appetite increased, and the aluminum price was supported. The operating capacity on the supply side was stable, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,602.5 yuan/ton on September 5, 2025, to 2,701 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, a rise of 98.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three increased from 20,650 dollars/ton to 21,060 dollars/ton, a rise of 410 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.9 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from 1.86 dollars/ton to 6.35 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 600 tons to 485,275 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,508 tons to 72,469 tons [4]. - The average spot price increased from 20,656 yuan/ton to 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 0 to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of Southern Storage spot increased from 20,608 yuan/ton to 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 48 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.1 tons to 62.5 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,539.76 yuan/ton to 16,383.85 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 4,116.24 yuan/ton to 4,434.15 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The average weekly price of the spot market was 20,818 yuan/ton, a rise of 162 yuan/ton compared with last week; the average weekly price of the Southern Storage spot was 20,762 yuan/ton, a rise of 154 yuan/ton compared with last week [5]. - In the macro - aspect, the US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 as of March this year. The US 8 - month PPI inflation unexpectedly declined, and the CPI was in line with expectations. The initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. China's 8 - month import and export value increased by 3.5% year - on - year. China's 8 - month CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting [5]. - On the consumption side, the domestic downstream aluminum processing开工率increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased to 625,000 tons, 1,000 tons less than last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 132,500 tons, 7,500 tons less than last Thursday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - The macro - aspect strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, increasing market risk appetite and supporting the aluminum price. However, attention should be paid to whether the Fed's interest rate decision on Thursday morning would lead to the situation of "buy on rumor, sell on news". The fundamental supply side had stable operating capacity, and the supply of aluminum ingots might decrease. Consumption improved marginally, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots showed signs of destocking. Both the macro and fundamental aspects were positive, supporting the aluminum price to break through the previous high and remain strong in the short term [7]. 4. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [8]. - It was rumored that on Tuesday, US President Trump proposed at a meeting in Washington that the EU should impose a 100% tariff on India and China for purchasing Russian energy to pressure Russia to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. 5. Related Charts - The report provided 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum month - to - first - continuous spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of Wumaoyi, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]