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华泰期货:铜表现强势,后市怎么看?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 01:52
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源:华泰期货 作者: 新能源&有色组 2026 年1月29日,沪铜主力Cu2603合约价格走高6.71%,午后收盘于109110元/吨,沪铜加权合约成交量 也呈现明显大幅放大的情况。 虽然目前,单单就基本面而言,铜、铝近期情况均难言乐观,高价对于下游需求抑制的情况相对明显, 下游观望情绪浓重,库存累高。但是在贵金属价格持续强劲的情况下,铜铝品种在经历了一段时间的震 荡格局后,无论是波动率还是价格与贵金属(黄金、白银)相比又成为了相对的洼地,且从属性上也有 部分的相似性。因此即便在近期基本面表现欠佳的情况下,依然呈现出了强劲的走势。 就后市而言,在行情短时内急剧拉涨的情况下,立刻入场做空的行为并不推荐,此后需要持续关注每日 成交量的变化情况。倘若出现价格走高而成交量无法持续跟进的迹象,那么有卖空套保需求的企业可以 适当择机入场,而投机头寸则仍然建议尽量避免在相对近月的合约上持有空头头寸的行为。而有买入套 保需求的企业则如此前建议一样,以"短平快"操作对待,即对未来两至三周的用量进行套保,暂时仍不 宜建立太大虚拟库存。可待临近春节,需求持续走弱之 ...
锌期货日报-20260130
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:51
行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 美联储维持利率不变,尽管鲍威尔表态偏鹰但并未有效提振美元情绪。美 国政府停摆风险持续升温,成为压制美元情绪的核心因素,政治不确定性进一 步强化了黄金的避险吸引力。此外中东地缘政治风险持续,推动大量资金涌入 黄金寻求避险。国内商品市场沪金价格涨幅近 8%。在贵金属强势引领及流动 性宽松预期的带动下,市场情绪显著回暖,有色金属板块集体跟涨,沪铜盘中 突破 11 万元,沪锌主力合约一度触及 26300 元/吨高位。截至下午三点收盘, 主力收于 25950 元/吨,涨 735,涨幅 2.91%,总持仓前 20 席位净多 14008 ...
2026年01月30日:期货市场交易指引-20260130
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock indices, "sideways movement" for treasury bonds, etc. [1][5] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading suggestions and market analysis for each product based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events. [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Market is resilient, influenced by factors like Fed's policy, geopolitical events, and real - estate policy. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways movement. There is no significant explicit negative factor, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflow. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. Coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but price increase sustainability is limited due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Futures price is slightly higher than off - peak electricity cost of electric arc furnace and lower than peak electricity cost. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. [8] - **Glass**: Hold off. Supply is stable, demand is weak in the north and has local support in the south. There is a risk of production - sales decline before the Spring Festival. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Hold off or hold long positions with light positions and roll. Macro - factors support prices, but fundamentals are weak. There is a risk of callback before the Spring Festival. [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is relatively stable, demand is entering the off - season, and prices may continue high - level adjustment. [13] - **Nickel**: Hold off. Indonesian quota reduction boosts sentiment, but fundamentals are weak. Price increase may be fully priced. [14][15] - **Tin**: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions. Supply is tight, consumption is in a recovery trend, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical tensions and Fed's policy affect prices. Mid - term price center moves up. [17] - **Silver**: Bullish. Similar to gold, geopolitical and economic factors drive prices up. Mid - term price center moves up. [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply is affected by mine risks, demand is strong, and prices are expected to be bullish. [18][19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and export is a key factor. Low - level may have been reached, long - term long - position thinking. [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Hold off. Demand is weak, supply is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. [21] - **Styrene**: Range trading. Price rebounds due to export and maintenance, but valuation is high. Long - term, pay attention to cost and supply - demand improvement. [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is expected to shrink seasonally, cost supports prices, but there is a risk of callback. [23] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, demand from compound fertilizer and other industries supports prices, and prices are expected to move sideways. [25] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand from olefin production and traditional downstream is weak, and prices are affected by geopolitical and port factors. [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish sideways. Supply increases, demand from PE downstream declines, and PP has some support. Prices are expected to be weak. [27] - **Soda Ash**: Hold off. Supply is expected to contract, demand from downstream is mixed, and cost supports prices. [28] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Sideways adjustment. Global cotton supply decreases and demand increases, but internal - external price difference suppresses domestic prices. [28] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. Market is generally stable and weak, with different trading situations in different regions. [30] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. Raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, with a high - quality - high - price principle. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and long - term price increase is cautious. Short - term, short on rallies for off - season contracts; long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction. [31][33] - **Eggs**: Rebound from low levels. Current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. [34][35] - **Corn**: Upside limited. Short - term supply - demand is balanced, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Sideways at low levels. Short - term, M2603 contract moves sideways; long - term, 05 contract is under pressure. [37] - **Oils**: Bullish sideways. Fundamental factors support price increases, but the upward momentum may weaken over time. [37][43]
金融期货早班车-20260130
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute can yield certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - dated contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the long - run, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is advisable to conduct hedging operations when the prices of T and TL contracts are high [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On January 29th, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% to close at a certain point, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.3% to 14,300.08, the ChiNext Index fell 0.57% to 3,304.51, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index dropped 3.03% to 1,507.64. Market turnover reached 32,594 billion yuan, an increase of 2,671 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, food and beverage (+6.57%), media (+3.53%), and real estate (+2.65%) led the gains, while electronics (-3.56%), national defense and military industry (-1.79%), and power equipment (-1.78%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1,801, 108, and 3,562 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - investor, and retail investors had net inflows of - 296, - 306, 68, and 534 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 178, - 150, +12, and +315 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 3.21, 0.24, - 30.13, and - 19.49 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 0.31%, - 0.02%, 5.11%, and 5.05% respectively, with the three - year historical quantiles being 93%, 88%, 98%, and 98% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - dated contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On January 29th, treasury bond futures were basically flat. Among the active contracts, TS remained unchanged, TF rose 0.01%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.07% [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.034, and an IRR of 1.33%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.022, and an IRR of 1.42%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 0.3bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.055, and an IRR of 1.17%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.121, and an IRR of 2.34% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open market operations, the central bank injected 3,540 billion yuan and withdrew 2,102 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 1,438 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long - term, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations when the prices of T and TL contracts are high [2]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of the real estate and social activities sectors is lower than in previous periods, while the prosperity of the manufacturing, import - export, and infrastructure sectors is similar to that of previous periods [9].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2026年1月30日)-20260130
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:43
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2026 年 1 月 30 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 议息会议落地,避险需求推升金 价 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 强预期弱现实 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:强势 参考观点:长线看强 核心逻辑:昨日金价冲高,沪金一度高达 1250 元/克,纽约金一度高达 ...
华泰期货:停摆危机再现 贵金属走出“过山车”行情
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 01:40
作者: 师橙 市场分析 贵金属市场再度上演"过山车"行情。1月29日,黄金、白银在亚市、欧市交易时段强势走高,现货黄金 一度逼近5600美元/盎司关口,现货白银则连续突破117、118、119、120和121美元/盎司五道关口。纽约 市场交易时段金银价格急转直下,现货黄金直线跳水跌近6%失守5100美元/盎司关口,现货白银则跌超 8%失守107美元/盎司,但随后跌幅双双收窄。美国方面,美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已 获众议院通过的政府拨款法案,美国联邦政府再次面临部分"停摆"的危机。美国数个联邦部门的运转资 金将于1月30日耗尽。地缘方面,伊朗已于1月29日通过高频无线电向过往船只发布通告,宣布将于2月1 日至2日在霍尔木兹海峡举行军事演习,演习内容包括实弹射击。整体看贵金属避险溢价支撑仍在。 期货行情与成交量: 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源:华泰期货 2026-01-29,沪金主力合约开于1189.60元/克,收于1249.12元/克,较前一交易日收盘变动5.30%。当日 成交量为41087手,持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1246.00元 ...
中泰期货晨会纪要-20260130
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro and Financial Markets**: In the stock market, the short - term style may shift to large - cap stocks; in the bond market, the short - term rebound may continue, and the central bank's monetary policy is turning more accommodative [10][11]. - **Black Commodities**: The black commodity market will generally remain volatile. Steel will fluctuate in the short term, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Lithium carbonate prices may rise after a short - term correction; industrial silicon will run with an upward limit due to pessimistic expectations; polysilicon will continue to fluctuate under strict supervision [21][22][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level and strong consolidation phase; domestic sugar is under pressure; egg prices may decline after the peak of pre - festival stocking; apple prices may be strong; corn prices have large differences in the market; jujube prices will be weak and volatile; hog prices will see a fierce spot - market game [25][28][31][33][34][35][36]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks; fuel oil prices follow crude oil; plastics may have a limited rebound; rubber has support; synthetic rubber is expected to be strong; methanol's fundamentals are improving; caustic soda is bearish; asphalt prices follow crude oil; PVC has a risk of correction; the polyester industry chain is supported by cost; LPG is strong in the short term; pulp will fluctuate; logs are expected to be strong; urea is in a strong and volatile state [38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][49][50][51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China and the UK have reached a series of positive outcomes, including the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership, the establishment of a financial working group, and a reduction in whisky import tariffs [6]. - SpaceX and xAI are in talks to merge for an IPO [6]. - China has released a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [6]. - There is a possibility of a new round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [6]. - China's Spring Festival cultural and tourism consumption month has started, with about 30,000 cultural and tourism consumption events and over 360 million yuan in consumption subsidies [7]. - The photovoltaic industry needs to "anti - involute" and return to rational development [7]. - The weighted average interest rate of new commercial personal housing loans in Q4 2025 was 3.06%, and Shanghai has extended the personal housing property tax pilot policy [7]. - The US trade deficit in November 2025 was $56.8 billion, a 95% increase from the previous month [7]. - South Africa is considering imposing a 50% tariff on imported vehicles from China and India [8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to trade in a narrow range. The short - term style may shift to large - cap stocks due to the strong performance of liquor and real - estate stocks [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has improved, and the short - term rebound may continue. The central bank's MLF operation in January has increased, indicating a shift to a looser monetary policy [11]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - Macro policies meet market expectations, and there is little possibility of new policies. Steel production is less likely to be affected by policies. Steel inventories are increasing slightly, and the fundamentals are acceptable, but there is a risk of long - term accumulation in the off - season. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is relatively loose. The black market will generally remain volatile, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, domestic mine production will be restricted. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand contradiction may improve, which may support spot prices [16]. Ferroalloys - There is still a small supply gap in ferrosilicon before the daily production in the main production areas increases significantly. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to hold short positions established at high levels and not to enter new positions unilaterally [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - The soda - ash and glass industry chain follows the market atmosphere. Soda - ash supply is at a high level, and new production capacity is expected to increase. The glass market has expectations of both cold repair and restart of production lines. It is recommended to wait and see for now [18][19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the growth of demand and supply - side disturbances, the price center of lithium carbonate may rise after a short - term correction, and it will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [21]. Industrial Silicon - The current situation has improved, and it will run strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited by pessimistic expectations. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound [22]. Polysilicon - Under strict regulatory restrictions, the market will continue to fluctuate. The "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry will continue, and the inventory reduction expectation in the first quarter is improving, but the high inventory still suppresses the upside [23]. Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply surplus, but the expected reduction of long - term supply and the contradiction between pre - festival replenishment and declining production may keep Zhengzhou cotton in a high - level and strong consolidation phase. It is recommended to trade in the short term [25]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is under pressure from both external and domestic supply. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre - festival stocking of eggs may peak and then decline. The spot price may fall, and the futures contract for the post - festival off - season is under pressure, but the downside is also limited [31]. Apples - The apple market may run strongly. The pre - festival stocking is ongoing, and the high - quality apple prices will remain firm, while the prices of ordinary and low - quality apples may be under pressure [33]. Corn - The market has large differences. The short - term price is supported by pre - festival replenishment, but the upside is limited. It is necessary to focus on the concentrated selling in March and the opportunity to go long on dips in the far - month contracts [34]. Jujubes - The jujube market will maintain a weak and volatile state. The new - season jujubes have advantages in price and quality, and the sales in the off - season are okay, but the overall demand is expected to remain stable [35]. Hogs - The hog market has both increasing supply and demand, and the spot - market game is fierce. It is necessary to focus on the impact of weight reduction before the festival on the spot price. It is recommended to go short on the near - month contracts on rallies [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US pressure on Iran continues, and the supply surplus problem is still severe. Geopolitical risks are high, and there is a risk of short - term market fluctuations [38]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will follow crude oil prices. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the inventory is at a high level [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. Although the upstream is in heavy losses, which may support the price, the new production capacity will limit the rebound space, and there is a risk of correction [40]. Rubber - The pre - festival replenishment by downstream enterprises and the upcoming shutdown of overseas production areas support the price. It is recommended to close out the profitable positions of shorting out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [41]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to be strong due to the tight supply of butadiene in the first half of the year. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [42]. Methanol - The fundamentals of methanol are improving in the long term, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short term and consider going long after the inventory at the port decreases smoothly [43][44]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda industry has high production and inventory. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is poor, and there is a possibility of production reduction. It is recommended to take a bearish view [45]. Asphalt - The asphalt price will follow crude oil prices and may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of raw - material discounts and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase [46]. PVC - The previous rise of PVC was driven by the expectation of capacity reduction and the improvement of export fundamentals. However, the core supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved, and there is a risk of correction. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The near - end fundamentals of the polyester industry chain are weak due to the seasonal off - season, but the cost support limits the downside. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct positive spreads between 5 - and 9 - month contracts [49]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is supported by the high import cost due to geopolitical issues. In the short term, it can run strongly, but in the long term, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to the expected decline in demand [50]. Pulp - The pulp market has a large intraday fluctuation. The spot - market trading sentiment has weakened, but the price is still supported by the stable fundamentals and the expected increase in the overseas price. It is recommended to go long on dips if the downstream purchasing intention improves [51]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are strong, and the spot price has stabilized. The product price has risen due to the increase in raw - material costs. The market is expected to maintain a supply - demand balance, and the price may fluctuate strongly [52]. Urea - The urea futures market is expected to be strong and volatile. The spot - market price has risen, and the futures price is affected by other commodities. It is necessary to focus on the improvement of spot - market liquidity [52].
格林大华期货早盘提示:贵金属-20260130
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:37
Morning session notice 研究员: 刘洋 从业资格: F3063825 交易咨询资格:Z0016580 联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司,COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 1.38%报 1202元/克,沪银主力合约上涨 2.1%报30358 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 29 日,全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 3.43 吨, 当前持仓量为 1086.53 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 112.76 吨,当前持仓量为 15523.36 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察":美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.4%,维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 8 ...
华泰期货:石油沥青成本端维持强势,盘面延续上行
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 01:34
市场分析 1、1月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3478元/吨,较昨日结算价上涨114 元/吨,涨幅3.39%;持仓170058手,环比下跌5221手,成交402578手,环比下跌51997手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3506—3550元/吨;山东,3130—3300元/吨;华南,3250— 3350元/吨;华东,3200—3230元/吨。 中东局势依然较为紧张,市场担忧美国对伊朗发动军事打击。由于伊朗自身产量规模较大,且临近全球 石油运输最重要的隘口"霍尔木兹海峡",因此一旦发生军事冲突,对石油市场的影响将十分显著。因此 在美国打击伊朗风险增加的背景下,油市隐含的地缘溢价大幅抬升。此外,近期大宗商品宏观情绪整体 升温,在贵金属、有色领涨的引领下,部分资金流入能源化工等相对低位板块,促进了市场的涨幅。在 地缘与宏观因素的催化下,国际油价持续走高,沥青成本端支撑增强。此外,沥青在美国逐步控制委内 瑞拉石油资源后,国内沥青生产的核心原料供应收紧,需要在中东等地寻找替代资源,如果中东地区再 爆发危机,可能会加剧原料短缺的困境。但需要注意,目前市场定价更多来自于预期而非现 ...
芝商所上调期货金保证金,金价上演过山车行情,短期波动加大
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-30 01:34
消息面上,美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已获众议院通过的政府拨款法案,美国联邦政府再 次面临部分"停摆"的危机。芝商所将纽约商品交易所(COMEX)铜期货保证金上调20%;将COMEX100 黄金期货初始保证金比例从5%上调至6%,新标准将于当地时间1月30日收盘后生效。 相关分析指出,金价冲高回落的格局,主要源于投资者在创纪录高位后的获利了结行为。尽管短期抛售 压力增大,但地缘政治不确定性持续发酵及美元贬值带来的避险需求,仍为黄金提供了逢低买盘的强劲 支撑。 1月29日,受美政府关门风险及美伊局势升级影响,金价早盘延续强势,期货金价盘中一度突破5600美 元,盘中受芝商所出手控温影响,金价高位跳水,一度跌至5126美元后,尾盘有所回升,单日波动超 500美元,截至收盘,COMEX黄金期货涨1.32%报5410.80美元/盎司,黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨5.45%, 黄金股ETF(159562)涨1.64%,有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨1.44%。 ...