Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of the yield central tendency in the bond market is difficult to reverse in the long - term due to economic pressure, but it may first decline and then rise in the short - term [4][29] - The macro - environment is still favorable for the bond market, with the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the central bank will maintain liquidity [24][29] - The resumption of VAT collection on the interest income of government bonds and other bonds has multiple meanings and will affect the bond market [6] Summary by Directory Hot - Spot Review - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued national, local, and financial bonds. The VAT rate for banks, insurance, and securities self - operating departments will change from 0 to 6%, and for public funds and other asset management products, from 0 to 3% [6] - The resumption has three meanings: releasing incremental fiscal space to ease fiscal pressure (estimated to increase annual fiscal revenue by 200 - 410 billion yuan), optimizing the bond market tax policy and strengthening the benchmark function of national bond yields, and optimizing resource allocation by guiding funds to other fields and narrowing the spreads between old and new bonds and credit spreads [6][7][9] July Interest Rate Operation Review Funds and Liquidity Monitoring - In July, the central bank's open - market operations were relatively loose, with a net capital injection of 488 billion yuan, but a decrease of 365.9 billion yuan compared to the previous month. The central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations at times of tight liquidity [11] - The central tendency of capital interest rates declined. The DR007 central tendency was 1.516%, a 6.17 - BP decline from the previous month, and the R007 central tendency was 1.5296%, a 10.35 - BP decline. The DR007 - R007 spread was at a historically low level, indicating looser non - bank liquidity [12][14] Interest - Bearing Bond Yield Review - The 10 - year national bond yield central tendency increased. At the end of the month, it reached 1.7044%, a 5.75 - BP increase from the previous month's end, and the central tendency increased by 2.66 BP to 1.68%. The term spread widened by 1.7 BP to 32.37 BP [16] - In July, the trading volume of interest - bearing bonds increased by 5.25 trillion yuan to 28.18 trillion yuan. The trading volume of national bonds increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, local bonds decreased by 195.833 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds increased by 4.06 trillion yuan [16] Follow - up Outlook Macro - environment - The central tendency of national bond yields may continue to decline, but short - term incremental policies may drive yields up. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. Consumption and investment in June showed marginal cooling [22] - The central government will accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds, and the NDRC will promote the establishment of new policy - based financial instruments, which may improve macro - data but have a negative impact on the bond market [22] Monetary Policy - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. There is a need for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts due to high real interest rates. The Fed may cut interest rates in the third quarter, providing space for China's monetary policy easing. The central tendency of yields may decline further this year [24] - In the short - term, the central bank will maintain liquidity by increasing open - market operations despite the accelerated issuance of government bonds [24] Bond Market Strategy - The short - term adjustment of the interest - income tax rate on national bonds may lead to a rush to buy old bonds, driving yields down, and then the yield central tendency may rise due to the tax premium [28] - The stock market's anti - involution trend and the NDRC's new policies may increase market risk appetite and have a negative impact on bond yields [29] - Enterprises planning to issue bonds can consider starting in late Q3 to reduce financing costs [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Family - support - oriented fiscal policies are continuously introduced, optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure towards a "people - investment" and "people's livelihood - focused" direction, with potential long - term economic and social benefits [5][8][9]. - The Ministry of Finance has once again reported six typical cases of implicit debt accountability, highlighting the need to strengthen the investigation and accountability of implicit debt and improve the investment and financing mechanisms in key policy - supported areas [10][11][13]. - The process of key provinces "exiting the list" continues, with Inner Mongolia being the first to officially announce its exit, and efforts are needed to consolidate the results and prevent new implicit debts [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Important News Reviews 3.1.1. Family - support - oriented Fiscal Policies - Since July, family - support - oriented policies such as the implementation plan for child - rearing subsidies and the gradual implementation of free preschool education have been successively introduced. These policies are expected to increase the proportion of people's livelihood expenditure in fiscal expenditure, optimize the central - local expenditure structure, and stimulate consumption and human capital development [5][8][9]. 3.1.2. Ministry of Finance's Report on Implicit Debt Accountability - On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance reported six typical cases of implicit debt accountability, all involving new implicit debts. The new implicit debts occurred relatively recently and were concentrated in policy - supported areas such as urban renewal and high - standard farmland construction [10][11][13]. 3.1.3. Key Provinces "Exiting the List" - Inner Mongolia has officially announced its exit from the list of key provinces with local debt risks. However, it still faces challenges such as high debt ratios in some areas and large temporary fiscal payments, and efforts are needed to prevent new implicit debts [14]. 3.1.4. Early Redemption of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 32 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance, involving 33 bonds with a total scale of 59.14 billion yuan. The enterprises are mainly from the central region, and the majority of the bond issuers have an AA rating [17]. 3.1.5. Cancellation of Bond Issuance - Two urban investment bonds were cancelled this week, with a planned total issuance scale of 17.5 billion yuan. As of August 4, 77 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 442.26 billion yuan [18]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds 3.2.1. Local Government Bonds - This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new special bonds exceeded 60%. The issuance interest rate and spread both increased. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose to 1.89%, and the weighted average issuance spread rose to 10.42BP [19]. 3.2.2. Urban Investment Bonds - The issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased this week, while the net financing scale increased. The issuance interest rate increased, and the spread widened. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.33%, and the issuance spread was 78.73BP. Five overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 33.22 billion yuan [22][23]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases this week, with 1656.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 690 million yuan. Short - term capital interest rates generally declined [26]. - This week, the trading scale of local government bond cash bonds decreased by 7.14% to 380.769 billion yuan, and most of the maturity yields declined, with an average decline of 1.50BP. The trading scale of urban investment bonds increased by 2.69% to 277.6 billion yuan, and most of the maturity yields declined, with an average decline of 2.44BP [27]. - There were 16 abnormal transactions of 14 bonds from 14 urban investment entities this week. The number of entities decreased, but the number of bonds and abnormal transactions increased [28]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 50 urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, names, and business scopes [31].

Report Overview - The report, part of the "Financial Performance Analysis Series - Pictorial Financial Reports (I): Decoding the Financial Performance of Industrial Bond Issuers," is launched by CCXI based on continuous research from 2018. It uses visual data to present the overall financial performance of industrial bond issuers, laying a foundation for in - depth industry research [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The profitability of industrial bond issuers shows a weak recovery trend with increasing stability, while cash flow is generally stable but shows structural differentiation. Leverage is basically stable, but short - term debt is expanding, and short - term solvency is weakening [2][6][8] Detailed Summaries Profitability - Since 2024, the overall profitability of issuers has shown a weak recovery. The total net profit is still shrinking, dragged down by the deteriorating profits of tail - end entities. However, the number of issuers with year - on - year improved net profit has been increasing quarter by quarter since Q3 last year, and nearly 30% of issuers have a net profit increase in the 0 - 20% range, with increasing profit stability [2] Cash Flow and Capital Level - Benefiting from profit recovery, the operating cash flow of most issuers has improved, with the proportion of issuers with year - on - year improved operating cash flow increasing quarter by quarter to over half since H2 last year. Although over half of the issuers' net cash flow from financing activities decreased year - on - year this year, 65% of issuers still had positive financing cash flow. The overall performance of issuers' monetary funds is relatively stable, but half of the issuers saw an increase and half a decrease in monetary funds, and some enterprises face capital contraction pressure [6] Leverage Ratio - The leverage ratio of industrial issuers has been stable. Since 2024, the average asset - liability ratio has remained stable at around 60%. The proportion of high - leverage (asset - liability ratio > 70%) issuers increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 26%. The short - term debt scale has been continuously expanding, with over 60% of issuers having a year - on - year increase in short - term debt at the end of 2024 and in Q1 2025. As a result, the debt maturity structure of 60% of issuers shows a short - term trend, and most issuers face increased short - term debt pressure [8][9] Short - term Solvency - The short - term solvency of industrial issuers has further weakened. The average coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt has shown a weakening trend, and the median has continued to decline, reaching 68.63% at the end of Q1. Nearly 60% of issuers' short - term solvency indicators have declined. Notably, the short - term solvency pressure of tail - end issuers remains high, with about 20% of issuers having a monetary funds/short - term debt coverage ratio of less than 30% [11]

Core Insights - Shenzhen Stock Exchange's subsidiary, Shenzhen Information, will launch the Shenzhen AAA State-Owned Enterprise Credit Bond Index and the Shenzhen AAA Private Enterprise Credit Bond Index on August 15, 2023, to meet the investment demand for high-grade credit bonds [1][2] Group 1: Shenzhen AAA State-Owned Enterprise Credit Bond Index - The index includes bonds issued by state-owned enterprises with an AAA rating, fixed interest payment, and a remaining term of at least one month, reflecting the performance of high-grade state-owned enterprise credit bonds in the Shenzhen market [1] - As of the end of July, the index comprises 1,072 sample bonds with a total market value exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan, covering 94% of the underlying market [1] - The index has an annualized yield of 4.0% since its base date on December 28, 2018, with a Sharpe ratio of 3.6 and a weighted duration of approximately 2.52 years, catering to conservative yield-seeking investors [1] Group 2: Shenzhen AAA Private Enterprise Credit Bond Index - The index consists of bonds issued by private enterprises with an AAA rating, fixed interest payment, and a remaining term of at least one month, reflecting the performance of high-grade private enterprise credit bonds in the Shenzhen market [2] - As of the end of July, the index includes 95 sample bonds with a total market value of 178.7 billion yuan, covering 98% of the underlying market [2] - The index has an annualized yield of 4.0% since its base date on December 30, 2022, with a Sharpe ratio of 3.8 and a weighted duration of approximately 1.87 years, indicating a moderately low risk level [2] Group 3: Broader Context and Future Plans - Shenzhen Information aims to promote the innovative development of bond indices as a key strategy to support high-quality economic development, continuously enhancing the bond index system to provide diversified investment targets and performance benchmarks [2] - By the end of July 2025, Shenzhen Information plans to have released over 50 bond indices covering various categories, including government bonds, policy bank bonds, local government bonds, corporate bonds, and financial bonds [2] - The combined scale of Shenzhen's credit bond indices and Shenzhen AAA Sci-Tech Innovation Bond Index tracking ETF products exceeds 52 billion yuan, offering efficient on-site allocation tools for investors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market witnessed a key policy adjustment from August 4 - 8, 2025. The new tax policy resumed the collection of VAT on the interest income of government bonds and financial bonds issued after August 8, leading to an expectation of an expanded spread between new and old bonds. Fundamental data such as flat CPI, a 3.6% decline in PPI, and a drop in PMI in July, along with the cooling of anti - involution market sentiment, support the bullish logic of the bond market. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to fall to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5 - year secondary capital bonds of national and joint - stock banks may decline to 1.9%. Although the new tax policy exerts some pressure on new bonds, it forms a downward yield logic for old bonds, especially creating a strong incentive for institutions such as bank self - operations to scramble for old bonds. Credit bonds not affected by the new policy will also be indirectly benefited. Therefore, the current bond market bullish trend is considered the path of least resistance. In terms of credit strategies, it is recommended to increase the allocation of old financial bonds in mid - to - late August and actively capture capital gains opportunities brought about by the decline in credit bond yields [2][6]. - The tax - exemption advantage of non - financial credit bonds may lower the credit spread center. After the Ministry of Finance resumed the collection of VAT on the interest income of interest - rate bonds, the after - tax yield of non - financial credit bonds became more attractive due to their tax - exemption status, directly lowering the credit spread center. However, considering the sharing game of tax costs between issuers and investors, the decline in the spread may be less than the theoretical value. It is estimated that the yield of credit bonds may decline by 2 - 5bp, and in the long run, the allocation value of credit bonds will increase, but investors need to be vigilant about the phased disturbance of the new issuance interest rate of interest - rate bonds on the comparison advantage of credit bonds [2][7]. - The duration strategy adheres to the "neutral as the anchor". The fluctuation of market risk preference limits the stretching space of duration, and a 3 - 4 - year neutral duration is the optimal solution that combines offense and defense. Medium - duration credit bonds are less sensitive to capital interest rates and can avoid the repeated disturbances of the capital market in August. At the same time, medium - duration bonds have sufficient repair space and combine odds and liquidity. Long - duration varieties are restricted by the upward shift of the risk premium center after adjustment, supply pressure, and the cautious attitude of institutions, and it may be difficult to replicate the trend - like market of last year. It is recommended to appropriately control positions [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview - Yield and Changes of Each Term - The report presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types (including treasury bonds, national development bonds, local government bonds, etc.) at different terms (0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y). For example, the 0.5 - year treasury bond yield is 1.34%, showing a - 3.4bp change compared to last week, with a historical quantile of 5.6% [15]. Yield and Spread Overview - Spread and Changes of Each Term - It shows the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types at different terms. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 16bp, with a - 5.7bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.1% [17]. Credit Bond Yield and Spread by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - Urban Investment Bond Yield and Spread by Region Yield and Changes of Each Term - Displays the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different terms. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.70%, with a - 6.4bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 0.0% [20]. Spread and Changes of Each Term - Presents the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different terms. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 23.66bp, with a - 6.4bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 0.0% [23]. Yield and Changes of Each Implicit Rating - Shows the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different implicit ratings. For example, the AAA - rated 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.73%, with a - 2.6bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.0% [28]. Spread and Changes of Each Implicit Rating - Displays the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in each province at different implicit ratings. For example, the AAA - rated 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 23.10bp, with a - 2.5bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 21.5% [33]. Yield and Changes of Each Administrative Level - Presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds at different administrative levels in each province. For example, the provincial - level 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in Anhui is 1.72%, with a - 2.1bp change compared to last week and a historical quantile of 1.0% [38].

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report reviews 5 historical instances of bond bull - to - bear market transitions to provide insights for the current bond market [1]. - The main factor for the bond market's bull - to - bear transition is the recovery of real - entity financing demand, and it's crucial to grasp the timing of the central bank's monetary tightening [7]. - The bond market's interest rate fluctuation center is rising, and a defensive - counterattack investment strategy is suitable, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8]. Summary by Directory 2002 - 2020 Five Rounds of Bond Bull - to - Bear Market Review - 2003.9 - 2004.12: Rising inflation and tightened monetary policy led to a bond bear market. The central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio to prevent excessive growth of money and credit [2]. - 2006.11 - 2007.11: Over - heated economy and tightened monetary policy caused the bond market to turn bearish. Strong terminal demand drove inflation up, and the central bank tightened policy to curb over - heating [3]. - 2009.1 - 2009.11: Counter - cyclical policies, economic recovery, and monetary tightening led to a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.85% to 3.68%, and the market later entered a volatile phase [4]. - 2016.10 - 2017.11: Financial de - leveraging drove the bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.69% to 3.92%, with strict supervision and tight money as the main factors [5]. - 2020.5 - 2020.11: Premature shift in monetary policy and an economic inflection point brought a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.54% to 3.25% [6]. Characteristics of Bond Bull - to - Bear Transition - The recovery of real - entity financing demand, represented by economic upturn and rising prices, is the main cause of the bond market's bull - to - bear transition. The real - estate cycle has a significant impact on bond market interest rates [7]. - Central bank's monetary tightening occurs in all bond bear markets, but the timing varies according to the macro - economic environment, and grasping this timing is key [7]. Investment Strategy - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds is significant this year. Due to changes in inflation expectations, the bond market has declined while stocks have risen since July [8]. - Considering the low long - term interest rates and the possible PPI recovery, there is a risk of long - term interest rate re - pricing, and the interest rate curve tends to steepen [8]. - A defensive - counterattack strategy is recommended. Do not chase when the 10 - year treasury bond rate is below 1.7%, and consider short - term allocation at around 1.75%, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation phase, with government bond futures mostly declining and interbank bond yields rising slightly, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics driven by supply-side policies aimed at increasing corporate profits and subsequently boosting demand [1][2][7]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.31% and the 10-year main contract down 0.04% [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.7 basis points to 1.963% and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.25 basis points to 1.72% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 0.25%, with significant declines in several convertible bonds, while others saw notable gains [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively decreased, with the 10-year yield falling by 0.58 basis points to 4.281% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.4 basis points to 1.504% [4]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, indicating a regional trend of rising yields [4]. Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank issued financial bonds with yields of 1.5193%, 1.6562%, and 1.7942% for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year maturities, respectively, with strong bid-to-cover ratios [5]. - Agricultural Development Bank also issued 2-year financial bonds with competitive yields and high bid-to-cover ratios, reflecting strong demand [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1146 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, indicating tightening liquidity conditions in the market [6]. Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities noted that the current low yield environment for 10-year government bonds is under pressure from commodity price rebounds, but a significant bearish trend is unlikely without demand-driven factors [7]. - CITIC Securities highlighted the need to monitor risks in the convertible bond market, suggesting a focus on equity strategies and convertible bonds with favorable conversion premiums [8]. - China International Capital Corporation indicated that credit demand remains stable, with a low risk of credit spreads widening significantly in the current environment [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are in a risk - on state this week, but the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences. China's exports in July showed good performance, but there are risks of decline and restricted re - export trade in the future. For major assets, a defensive layout should be maintained, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities, maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state this week under the background of weak US economic fundamentals and intensified tariff threats. The inflection point of the pre - released concentrated overseas demand is approaching, and the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from a weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the event is settled, the capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. Considering Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, they are expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. Considering factors such as the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Considering policy - level dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coke**: Five rounds of price increases have been implemented, and coke - enterprise production has recovered. Considering steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased due to coal - mine disturbances, and the market is strengthening after sentiment improvement. Considering steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is sentiment - driven, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is sentiment - driven, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering cost prices and overseas quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Glass**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and rigid demand is relatively stable. Considering spot sales, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse - receipt pressure is emerging, and production is still recovering. Considering soda - ash inventory, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession is rising, and copper prices are under pressure. Considering supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are increasing again, and alumina prices are under pressure. Considering factors such as less - than - expected ore resumption and more - than - expected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are rising. Considering macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black - metal sector have rebounded again, and zinc prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc - ore supply, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead is disturbed, and lead prices are slightly rebounding. Considering supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory is high, and nickel prices are fluctuating widely. Considering unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel - iron is rising continuously, and the stainless - steel market is rising in a volatile manner. Considering Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and tin prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate is moving in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns are easing, but supply pressure still exists. Considering OPEC + production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **LPG**: Supported by chemical demand, the cracking spread has stabilized. Considering the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and the futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. Considering more - than - expected demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is following crude oil and fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, it is moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Considering export - policy trends and the elimination of production capacity, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PX**: Subject to planned maintenance, it cannot boost processing fees, and the price is still under cost pressure. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and more - than - expected PTA device maintenance, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PTA**: Subject to cost constraints, it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Considering wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and more - than - expected polyester load reduction, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has improved slightly. Considering the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream spinning mills, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the height of processing - fee repair is limited. Considering more - than - expected production increase by bottle - chip enterprises and a sharp increase in overseas export orders, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Plastic**: Inventory is accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost, the market is moving in a volatile manner. Considering expectations, cost, and supply, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner for the time being. Considering market sentiment, production, and demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is positive, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. Considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The trading volume of far - month basis contracts has increased, and the market is worried about the supply gap in the fourth quarter. Considering US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. 3.3 Agriculture - **Corn/Starch**: The market continues to move weakly in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Rubber**: Supported by strong raw - material prices, rubber prices are rising in a volatile manner. Considering plantation weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by tight raw - material supply, the market is rising. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is running stably. Considering macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, cotton prices are rising. Considering marginal changes in demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Considering imports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Logs**: Logs are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering shipment volume and transportation volume, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of other non-USD currencies, the Chinese yuan remains relatively stable, indicating resilience in China's foreign exchange market amidst complex international and domestic challenges [1][2]. - Foreign capital has been reducing its holdings of RMB-denominated bonds since February, raising concerns in the market, although this has not significantly altered the overall balance of cross-border capital flows [1][2]. - From January to May, the net inflow of cross-border funds related to goods trade reached $214.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%, reflecting the growth in China's import and export activities [2]. Group 2 - The current account surplus remains robust, with a surplus of $88.9 billion in the first quarter, up 25% year-on-year, and is expected to maintain a certain scale in the second quarter [3]. - China's industrial and supply chains are stable, supporting a continued surplus in goods trade, which is essential for maintaining a balanced current account [3]. - The financial market's high level of openness is expected to enhance foreign investors' confidence in holding RMB assets long-term, as China continues to improve its legal and international framework for the bond market [4].

Group 1 - The bond market has recently experienced a slowdown in its upward trend, with some maturities undergoing slight adjustments. Market sentiment has turned cautious as interest rates reached previous lows, leading to a shift towards a more volatile market environment. However, favorable conditions for the bond market remain largely unchanged due to stable fundamentals and a loose funding environment [1][3]. - Since August, bond market yields have shown a slowdown in their decline, with some maturities experiencing rebounds. Long-term bonds have outperformed short-term ones. As of August 12, the yield on 1-year government bonds was 1.81%, up 12 basis points from the August low, while the 10-year government bond yield remained stable between 2.72% and 2.74% [2][3]. - Analysts indicate that the favorable environment for the bond market has not significantly changed, with market interest rates expected to remain low. Economic recovery momentum is still uncertain, and credit expansion appears unstable, which does not currently impact the bond market's trajectory [3]. Group 2 - Several institutions suggest that increasing allocations to medium- to long-term bonds may be a primary source of excess returns in the second half of the year. The 5-year bond maturity is considered to have greater elasticity compared to others [4]. - The current funding environment remains supportive for the bond market, with a low likelihood of significant tightening in the short term. This is bolstered by coordinated fiscal and monetary policies aimed at maintaining a loose funding environment [3].