Group 1: Aerospace Industry - China plans to apply for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites by December 2025, indicating a strategic national focus on satellite technology [1] - The U.S. FCC has approved SpaceX to deploy an additional 7,500 Starlink satellites, increasing the total to approximately 15,000, enhancing global broadband coverage and competitive edge in satellite communications [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy and Battery Industry - From April 1, 2026, China will cancel VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products and reduce the rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%, leading to a potential surge in exports before the policy takes effect [4][5] - The solar energy sector accounts for about 10% of China's aluminum demand, and the upcoming policy changes are expected to positively impact aluminum demand in Q1 [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the current market sentiment is driven by emotions and liquidity, with expectations of continued upward movement in A-shares, particularly in technology and robotics sectors [12] - The spring market rally is anticipated to continue, with a focus on sectors that show strong performance and potential for growth, despite short-term volatility [12][13] Group 4: Robotics Industry - Hangzhou Xinjian Electromechanical Transmission Co., Ltd. has initiated listing guidance, recognized as a primary supplier for humanoid robots [17] - At CES 2026, AAC Technologies showcased a comprehensive humanoid robot solution, indicating advancements in robotics technology [18] Group 5: AI and Computing - DeepSeek is set to launch a new AI model with enhanced code generation capabilities, reflecting ongoing advancements in AI technology [20] - Tencent's new chief scientist highlighted that the productivity gains from current AI models are just beginning to be realized, with significant commercial opportunities ahead [20] Group 6: Rare Earth Industry - Chinese state-owned enterprises have notified some Japanese companies of the termination of new sales contracts for rare earths, marking a significant shift in trade relations [23] - The price index for rare earths has been launched, with recent data showing a slight increase in prices for praseodymium and neodymium [25]

Group 1 - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the A-share market, driven by a slow bull market expectation, seasonal market movements, and global market synchronization, indicating a favorable investment window from mid-December 2025 to early March 2026 [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly those that have previously underperformed but have catalysts for growth, in light of valuation expansion and liquidity easing [4][7] - Key investment areas include commercial aerospace, satellite industries, AI applications, humanoid robots, domestic AI computing power, and sectors benefiting from price increases such as storage chips, consumer electronics, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [4][13][15] Group 2 - Recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand include optimizing service industry loans and implementing interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, which are expected to significantly enhance consumer demand [7][8] - Domestic prices are showing a mild upward trend, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month in December, driven by increased consumer spending during the holiday season [8][9] - The report highlights the distinction between "anti-involution" and monopoly, indicating that price increases and profit margins are key factors in differentiating the two concepts, with ongoing reforms expected to support price recovery in certain industries [10][12] Group 3 - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been compressed, with a low probability of rate cuts in January 2026, but a cumulative reduction of about 50 basis points is anticipated throughout the year [11] - The technology sector is experiencing structural inflation characteristics, with new economic sectors showing price increases while traditional sectors remain weak, indicating a divergence in price trends [12] - The report maintains that the A-share market is likely to enter a new bullish phase, encouraging the acquisition of quality A-share assets, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and technology growth sectors [13][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [53]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector saw a weekly increase of 3.37%, ranking second among the SW automotive sector, with a year-to-date increase of 47.4% since the beginning of 2025 [2][19]. - The robotics sector experienced a weekly rise of 3.74%, with a year-to-date increase of 68.14% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the automotive parts sector by 0.37% [2][27]. - Key developments include the announcement of a 7.8 billion yuan contract for Xusheng Group with a North American new energy manufacturer, expected to start production by the end of 2026 [2][42]. - Notable stock performances this week include Xusheng Group (+18.05%), Xinquan Co. (+16.17%), and Hengshuai Co. (+13.24%) [2][42]. Summary by Sections Automotive Parts Sector Weekly Review - The automotive parts sector ranked second in the SW automotive index this week, with a performance of +3.37% [19]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at 1.3 times that of the entire A-share market, and its PB (LF) is at 1.5 times, indicating a strong valuation relative to the market [25]. - The sector's PE has increased by 8.75 times and PB by 0.74 times since the beginning of 2025 [25]. Robotics Sector Weekly Review - The robotics index increased by 3.74% this week, with a year-to-date performance of +68.14% since the beginning of 2025 [27]. - The latest PE (TTM) for the robotics sector is at 1.39 times that of the entire A-share market, with a PB (LF) at 1.90 times [37]. - The sector's PE has risen by 5.53 times and PB by 0.64 times since the beginning of 2025 [37]. Key Stock Tracking - Core stocks in the automotive parts sector include Fuyao Glass, Top Group, and Junsheng Electronics, with recommendations based on EPS and PE dimensions [48]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on structural opportunities in the automotive parts sector and certainty in the robotics sector, particularly with upcoming product launches and market applications [2][48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing significant growth, with notable performances from companies like Xpeng and Geely, which have reported substantial year-on-year increases in deliveries and sales [5][14] - The market is witnessing a shift towards electric vehicles (EVs), with a strong emphasis on autonomous driving technology and AI integration [13][14] - The overall automotive market in China is projected to continue its upward trajectory, with increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [19] Industry News - Xpeng delivered over 420,000 vehicles in 2025, marking a 126% year-on-year increase, and is focusing on full autonomous driving and physical AI production in 2026 [5][13] - Geely's total sales surpassed 4 million vehicles for the first time in 2025, achieving a 26% increase, with a 56% penetration rate for new energy vehicles [5][14] - GAC Group's sales fell by 14.06% in 2025, with GAC Toyota being the only brand to show growth [5][15] - Xiaomi's SU7 model became a bestseller in the 200,000+ yuan category, with over 360,000 units delivered [5][16] - Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory produced its 5 millionth electric drive system, highlighting its significant role in global EV production [5][18] Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance in the A-share market showed a 2.73% increase, ranking 20th among primary industries [6][28] - The passenger vehicle index rose by 0.71%, while the commercial vehicle index increased by 3.14% [6] - The automotive parts index saw a 3.87% rise, with specific segments like electric control systems and bearings showing notable gains [6][38] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, there is a strong demand for high-end domestic luxury cars, with recommendations for companies like JAC Motors and Seres, while Geely is identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, profitability is expected to improve, with recommendations for companies such as Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong, and beneficiaries including Weichai Power and Fuyao Glass [7]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on overseas equity (Hong Kong and US stocks) by Guotai Junan Futures, dated January 11, 2026 [1][2] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - For US stocks, maintain an optimistic outlook, continue with the technology + cyclical allocation strategy, and expect a more balanced market style in 2026 with a "shrinking circle" structure in the technology sector [3] - For Chinese stocks, in the short term, A-shares have better profit - making effects than Hong Kong stocks, and attention should be paid to the subsequent catch - up opportunities in Hong Kong stocks. In the medium term, Hong Kong stocks maintain a barbell strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Sections US Stocks - **Market Performance and Outlook**: This week, cyclical sectors led the rise in US stocks, and the technology sector continued its "shrinking circle" structure. Next week, the US stock market will face earnings season and inflation data. The outlook remains optimistic, and the technology + cyclical allocation strategy continues [3] - **2026 Allocation Ideas**: The market style will be more balanced, and the K - shaped divergence between technology and non - technology, large - cap and small - cap stocks is expected to converge. Focus on AI technology, healthcare, utilities, finance, materials, and consumer sectors. Prioritize upstream infrastructure in AI technology over downstream software, and pay attention to theme investment opportunities in physical AI [3] - **Valuation**: US stock valuations are still relatively high overall [14] - **AI Bubble**: It is a local rather than a systematic bubble. The market is punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. Currently, it may be close to the 1997 position from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC. Monitor the "ROIC - WACC" convergence trend and the divergence between "financing growth" and "profit growth" [20][22] Chinese Stocks - **Market Performance and Outlook**: This week, A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks. A - shares' performance was strong in some sectors with high performance certainty and theme - concept sectors. Southbound funds' entry momentum increased, and the pattern may be A - shares leading and Hong Kong stocks catching up. February is the month with the highest winning rate for A - shares historically [4][6][7] - **Short - term Allocation**: Defensively allocate sectors with high performance certainty (AI hardware, new energy leaders, and non - ferrous metals), and offensively allocate valuation - driven sectors (Hang Seng Technology, Hong Kong innovative drugs, commercial aerospace, and robotics) [7] - **Medium - term Allocation for Hong Kong Stocks**: Adopt a barbell strategy, focusing on technology assets with clear industrial trends supported by policies, some new energy sectors with supply - side clearance and demand - side improvement, and non - ferrous sectors benefiting from supply shortages, strong structural demand, and interest rate cuts [7] Odds Analysis - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The forward PE of the Hang Seng Index is 11.8 times, approaching the mean + 1STD since 2015. The forward PE of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 21.4 times, approaching the mean of the past 5 years. The Hang Seng Index ERP is 4.9%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index ERP is 1.1% [9][10]

Investment Highlights - The mechanical industry experienced a growth rate of 41.69% in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 17.66%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries [3] - The top three sub-sectors in terms of growth were engineering machinery components (93.20%), lithium battery specialized equipment (92.49%), and metal products (80.47%), while the rail transit equipment sector saw a decline of 3.80% [3] Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the total market value of mechanical equipment holdings by various fund types was 69.8 billion yuan, accounting for 3.39% of the total market value of A-shares, indicating a low allocation of 1.09 percentage points compared to the industry’s 4.47% share [5] Performance Overview - The mechanical equipment industry achieved a total operating revenue of 1.533 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.46%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 110.19 billion yuan, up 16.86% [8] Engineering Machinery Sector - Domestic demand for engineering machinery is recovering, driven by factors such as water conservancy projects and machinery replacement, with excavator sales in 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 18.59% [9] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, which is expected to benefit the engineering machinery sector through policy support and a renewal cycle [12][17] - Exports of excavators showed a positive trend, with a cumulative sales volume of 104,000 units in the first eleven months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.85% [19] Robotics Sector - The humanoid robot sector is seeing continuous product iteration and performance upgrades, with several companies planning to achieve mass production by 2026 [24][35] - Capital investment in humanoid robotics has surged, with over 32.8 billion yuan raised in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating increased market interest [27] - Government policies are actively supporting the development of the humanoid robot industry, aiming to establish a competitive industrial ecosystem by 2027 [33][34] AI and Equipment Demand - The AI industry is experiencing high demand, with major tech companies significantly increasing capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, projected to exceed 350 billion USD in 2025 [38] - The construction of AI data centers is driving up electricity demand, benefiting the gas turbine market, which is expected to see a rise in sales from 38,917 MW in 2020 to 70,838 MW in 2025 [39] Industrial Equipment Trends - The industrial robot market is on an upward trajectory, with a cumulative production of approximately 673,800 units in the first eleven months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.20% [52] - Forklift sales are also increasing, with domestic sales reaching 843,000 units, up 14.27% year-on-year, and exports growing by 13.96% [56] - The machine tool sector is seeing steady production growth, with a cumulative output of 783,000 units in the first eleven months of 2025, up 12.70% year-on-year [58] Lithium Battery Equipment - The demand for dynamic storage batteries is on the rise, with global shipments expected to grow significantly, supported by increased capital expenditures from leading battery manufacturers [60] - The solid-state battery sector is also advancing, with several companies planning to achieve mass production by 2027, indicating a positive outlook for equipment suppliers [64] Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic industry is shifting towards technology upgrades, with new production lines focusing on n-type battery cells, which are expected to dominate the market [67] 3C Equipment - The consumer electronics sector is entering an innovation cycle, with the foldable smartphone market projected to see explosive growth in 2026, benefiting upstream equipment demand [68]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from China's 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly focusing on AI's new productive forces as a major investment theme for the coming years [4][7]. Investment Opportunities - The article outlines eight core investment tracks that are aligned with the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting their potential for growth and the importance of understanding the underlying logic behind these sectors [5][11]. Eight Core Tracks 1. **Commercial Aerospace**: The global competition for low-orbit satellite resources is intensifying, with significant developments expected in 2026. Companies involved in rocket recovery and satellite manufacturing are poised for growth [13][15]. 2. **AI Applications and Domestic Substitution**: The commercialization of AI applications is crucial for overcoming skepticism about AI's viability. Domestic semiconductor advancements and AI model iterations are expected to drive growth in this sector [17][20]. 3. **Humanoid Robots**: Tesla's production of humanoid robots is anticipated to mark a significant turning point in 2026, with the potential for large-scale production and substantial market impact [19][21]. 4. **Edge AI Hardware**: AI glasses are projected to be the next major entry point for AI technology, with significant market potential as companies like ByteDance and Google prepare to launch products [23][25]. 5. **Autonomous Driving**: The transition from testing to implementation of Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous driving technologies is expected to drive upgrades across the supply chain, supported by favorable policies [26][27]. 6. **AI Energy Infrastructure**: The increasing energy demands of AI technologies necessitate advancements in energy infrastructure, particularly in nuclear and gas power generation [28][29]. 7. **Strategic Resources**: The demand for strategic resources, likened to "new oil," is expected to grow due to supply chain security and economic factors, with a focus on metals like copper and rare earth elements [30][31]. 8. **Frontier Fields**: Emerging sectors such as nuclear fusion, quantum computing, and brain-machine interfaces are identified as long-term investment opportunities, with potential breakthroughs expected in the coming decade [31][33]. Key Investment Signals - Investors are advised to monitor specific indicators such as IPO progress of tech unicorns, technological breakthroughs in key sectors, and advancements in domestic chip manufacturing and AI model capabilities [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of A-share themes in 2023, highlighting the performance of various sectors and the potential pitfalls of blindly following market trends without a solid trading strategy [1][3]. Monthly Performance Summary - January: Human-like robots, stock Ji Dong Equipment, gained +84.49% [2] - February: AI computing, stock Capital Online, gained +150.97% but fell -26.25% the next month [2] - March: Chemicals, stock Zhongyida, gained +135.41% [2] - April: New retail, stock Guofang Group, gained +117.10% [2] - May: AI computing, stock Zhongyou Technology, gained +157.28% but fell -29.75% the next month [2] - June: Military industry, stock Beifang Changlong, gained +159.97% [2] - July: Human-like robots, stock Shangwei New Materials, gained +1083.42% but fell -9.85% the next month [2] - August: AI computing, stock Cambricon, gained +110.36% but fell -11.22% the next month [2] - September: Unknown sector, stock 688411.SH, gained +153.52% but fell -15.15% the next month [3] - October: Cross-strait relations, stock Pingtan Development, gained +99.44% and +51.55% the next month [3] - November: Cross-strait relations, stock Hefei China, gained +143.31% and +2.43% the next month [3] - December: Commercial aerospace, stock Aerospace Power, gained +104.83% [3] Overall Results - The cumulative return from this strategy was -4.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 by -22.46% [3]. - The analysis indicates that while chasing hot stocks is not inherently wrong, it is crucial to have a well-defined trading strategy [3]. Trading Strategy Insights - Stocks with a monthly gain exceeding 150% have an approximately 80% chance of declining the following month [4]. - Stocks driven by policy and industry support, with significant monthly gains, have a success rate exceeding 75% in the following month [4]. Key Questions for Analysis - Can the performance be supported by the company's earnings? - Is the stock at a peak or in a consolidation phase? What are the resistance levels? - Are there any negative factors on the horizon? [5] Sector Analysis Example - In December 2025, commercial aerospace emerged as a hot market concept, driven by policy and industry factors, with the national space agency expanding government procurement and a projected industry scale exceeding 2.5 trillion by 2025 [7]. - Key questions for evaluating this sector include recent policy support, investment trends, core companies' commercialization progress, and overall industry trends [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has released a three-year action plan (2026-2028) to support the transformation and upgrading of advanced manufacturing, focusing on structural optimization, innovation, quality improvement, and resource support, with specific measures to boost emerging industries like commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics [1][2]. Group 1: Action Plan Overview - The action plan aims to add 100 manufacturing enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan by 2028, totaling over 600, and to drive the addition of 500 large-scale industrial enterprises in the supply chain [2]. - It emphasizes the development of new-generation electronic information, smart connected vehicles, high-end equipment, advanced materials, and green low-carbon industries [2][3]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology Focus - The plan encourages enterprises to increase investment in basic research, with financial subsidies for those achieving certain research expenditure thresholds [4]. - It supports the development of core technologies in fields such as laser manufacturing, quantum technology, and new energy [4]. Group 3: Quality and Efficiency Enhancement - The action plan includes initiatives for "AI + manufacturing" to enhance digital intelligence levels in manufacturing processes, aiming for full coverage of smart factory applications by 2028 [5]. - It promotes the creation of green factories, targeting the establishment of over 100 national-level green factories by 2028 [5]. Group 4: Financial Support Measures - The plan outlines financial support for key industries, including lower interest rates and longer loan terms for manufacturing loans, along with interest subsidies for key components and raw materials [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has released a three-year action plan (2026-2028) to support the transformation and upgrading of advanced manufacturing, focusing on structural optimization, innovation, and resource support. Group 1: Action Plan Overview - The action plan aims to add 100 manufacturing enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan by 2028, totaling over 600 such enterprises, and to drive the addition of 500 large-scale industrial enterprises in the supply chain [2] - The plan emphasizes the development of new-generation electronic information, smart connected vehicles, high-end equipment, advanced materials, and green low-carbon industries [2][3] Group 2: Key Industry Focus - The action plan encourages investment in emerging fields such as low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, embodied intelligence, biomanufacturing, and smart terminals, aiming to overcome bottlenecks in the industrial scale development of innovative products like eVTOLs, commercial rockets, and humanoid robots [1][2] - It supports integrated circuit companies to achieve breakthroughs across the entire industry chain, focusing on equipment, advanced processes, and materials [2] Group 3: Innovation and Research Support - The plan proposes financial incentives for companies increasing their basic research investments, with subsidies ranging from 200,000 to 1 million yuan based on the level of investment [4][5] - It encourages the establishment of research centers and collaboration with universities and research institutions to enhance technological innovation [5] Group 4: Digital and Intelligent Manufacturing - The action plan includes initiatives to promote AI in manufacturing, aiming for large enterprises to achieve full coverage of digital applications by 2027 and to increase robot density to 600 units per million people by 2028 [5][6] - It outlines a new round of smart factory initiatives, targeting a 70% digitalization level for smart manufacturing equipment by 2028 [5] Group 5: Green Transformation and Financial Support - The plan emphasizes green transformation, encouraging the development of low-carbon products and providing financial rewards for energy-saving upgrades [6] - It aims to create over 100 national-level green factories by 2028, with initial recognition receiving a one-time reward of 200,000 yuan [6] - Financial institutions are encouraged to offer lower-interest loans and customized insurance services for key technological equipment and new materials [6]