Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, implying a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ★☆☆, implying a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish or bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report assesses multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing investment ratings and analyzing the current market situation, supply - demand relationship, and price trends for each commodity, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with the basis gradually weakening and spot trading being average. New cotton cost provides some support to the market, but price increases may face hedging pressure due to average demand. As of October 30, the cumulative processed lint cotton nationwide was 233.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.6 million tons. As of November 5, the cumulative inspection volume was 215.78 million tons. The demand for pure cotton yarn is average, and the new orders for weavers are poor. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, the production data in mid - October was neutral, with the cane crushing volume in mid - October basically flat year - on - year and the sugar - making ratio decreasing month - on - month but still slightly up year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar remained weak. There are rumors of syrup import control, providing some support. The market focus has shifted to the new season's production estimate. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated widely. In the spot market, apple harvesting in Shandong is nearing the end, and there is little off - warehouse stock in the northwest. As of November 6, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 682.74 million tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The market focus has shifted to sales expectations. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU was weak, and NR & BR declined. The futures market sentiment was cautious. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period, but the Yunnan region in China is entering the low - production period. The domestic tire start - up rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory in Qingdao increased. The import volume in October was 66.7 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase and a 10.1% month - on - month decrease. A strategy of trading on oversold rebounds and paying attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities is recommended [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of November 6, the inventory at major ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. In September, the import volume was 295.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.25 million tons. The demand for pulp is average, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [6] Timber - The futures price was weak. The mainstream spot price remained stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine price increased, but the domestic spot price was weak, and the import willingness of traders declined. The port delivery volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory was low. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a structural divergence in the prices of major production materials, with 23 out of 49 materials experiencing price increases, while 24 saw declines, indicating a mixed market environment [1][2][3] - Key price increases are observed in upstream coal and non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and aluminum, driven by replenishment demand and cost support [1][2] - Conversely, significant price drops are noted in agricultural products and certain chemicals, reflecting weak downstream consumption and excess supply pressures [1][2] Price Tracking of Major Production Materials - As of October 2025, coal prices have slightly rebounded to 670-680 RMB/ton, while WTI crude oil has decreased to 57 USD/barrel [3] - Non-ferrous metals, including copper and aluminum, have shown strong performance, with copper prices reaching 86,430 RMB/ton and aluminum prices exceeding 21,000 RMB/ton [1][3] - The chemical sector exhibits notable price differentiation, with sulfuric acid prices surging over 700 RMB/ton, while other chemical products like plastics and fertilizers continue to decline [1][2][3] Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year comparisons reveal that coal prices have decreased by approximately 10%-25%, with the decline rate narrowing, indicating a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - Agricultural products, particularly live pigs, have seen a significant price drop of around 37%, negatively impacting the overall agricultural sector [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown resilience, with electrolytic copper and aluminum prices increasing by 17.4% and 7.3% respectively, reflecting strong international metal market conditions and domestic demand recovery [2] Industry Price Trends - The report indicates that industries such as new energy, new materials, and high-end equipment are experiencing high material price levels and ongoing cost pressures, while traditional sectors like textiles and construction are facing low output prices due to weak downstream demand [4] - Profit margins remain robust in sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing, while industries such as chemical fibers and construction materials are under pressure due to high input costs and weak output [4]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports show resilience despite a slowdown in growth due to external demand weakening, with a total import and export value of 37.31 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a 3.6% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, exports grew by 6.2%, while imports remained stable compared to the previous year [1] - The export growth rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, with October showing a decline in exports of 0.8% in yuan terms and 1.1% in dollar terms, marking the first negative growth since February [1] - The decline in October exports was influenced by a high base from the previous year, reduced working days due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, and ongoing high tariffs from the U.S. impacting global trade [2] Group 2: External Factors - The U.S. tariffs have led to a significant drop in exports to the U.S., with a year-on-year decrease of 25.2% in October, contributing to a 3.8 percentage point drop in overall export growth [2] - Other regions also experienced a decline in export growth, with exports to the EU, Japan, ASEAN, and Belt and Road countries showing varying decreases in growth rates compared to the previous month [3] Group 3: Resilience in Exports - Despite external challenges, China's exports remain resilient, supported by diversification in trade and a surge in AI investments and domestic manufacturing upgrades, particularly in chip and automotive exports [4] - In the first ten months, trade with ASEAN and the EU grew by 9.1% and 4.9%, respectively, while trade with the U.S. decreased by 15.9% [4] Group 4: Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 60% of exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits (24.7%) and automobiles (14.3%), while labor-intensive products saw a decline [5] - In October, chip exports grew by 26.9% and automobile exports by 34.0%, indicating strong performance in these sectors [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Export growth is expected to rebound to around 2.0% in November, but overall export momentum is anticipated to weaken in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three quarters [6] - Policies to stabilize foreign trade are expected to support enterprises in shifting exports to domestic sales and expanding export credit insurance coverage [6] - The Shanghai export container freight index rose by 10.5% in late October, indicating stable demand in European shipping routes and positive market conditions for North American routes [6]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - The three major fats and oils are under overall pressure. The core contradiction lies in the game between the global fat and oil supply tending to be loose and the seasonal weakening of demand, coupled with increased uncertainty in biodiesel policies. Technically, the three major fats and oils continue to explore the bottom and build a base [8][9]. Live Pigs - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may generally maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, the secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the terminal consumption may gradually improve, but the overall increase may be limited. Overall, the spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and supply is sufficient. Substitute advantages are weakening, and future imports may remain at a low level. On the demand side, feed demand is improving, and deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal - In the short - term, soybean meal should be treated with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost - increase expectation if China only makes a small amount of purchases of US soybeans [147]. Eggs - The spot price may not have a sustained rebound unless there is emotional support. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Palm oil continued to decline, with weak demand and ample supply. Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is estimated to increase [8]. - Soybean oil futures slightly followed the decline and made narrow - range adjustments. High domestic soybean oil inventory and palm oil's weakness suppressed prices, while import costs provided support [9]. - Rapeseed oil fluctuated sideways. The supply is still uncertain, and the inventory is at a relatively high level but is being depleted [9]. 2. Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton weekly, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 210 yuan/ton weekly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Fats and Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 2.21% week - on - week and increased by 16.71% year - on - year [23]. - **Domestic Fat and Oil and Oilseed Supply**: As of the end of the 44th week, the soybean opening rate of domestic major soybean oil mills decreased. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 231.10 million tons, a decrease of 18.13 million tons from last week [26]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.31% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low [35]. - **CFTC Positions**: No specific analysis provided in the text. Live Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot prices continued to be weak due to oversupply. The national average live pig slaughter price this week was 12.16 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. Futures prices rebounded slightly [50]. 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory**: The price of binary sows was relatively stable, and the replenishment willingness of farmers was low. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [53]. - **Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory**: The price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [72]. - **Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in late October [73][76]. - **Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight**: In October 2025, the actual sales of commercial pigs exceeded the plan. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight this week increased slightly [80][81]. - **Import Supply: Pork Imports**: In September, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the total imports decreased by 11.24% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased in November. The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate decreased this week [90][92]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand may increase slightly. The spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn 1. Market Review - Spot prices varied by region. Futures prices rose by 2.04% week - on - week [101][102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress is faster than the same period last year. As of October 31, the inventory in northern ports increased by 14 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in southern ports increased by 13.5 million tons week - on - week [103][106]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices showed regional differentiation. The price difference between corn and wheat is 297 yuan/ton [108][109]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China's grain imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [111]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises increased by 3.24% week - on - week [125][129]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The starch industry's operating rate increased. The total corn processing volume this week was 59.73 million tons, an increase of 2.33 million tons from last week [132]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 corn production is expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and the consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [136]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply is sufficient, and substitute advantages are weakening. The demand is improving, but the inventory - building willingness is not strong. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices rose. Futures prices followed the CBOT soybeans and rose. The short - term attitude towards soybean meal should be cautious and slightly bullish [145][147]. 2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The new - season US soybean planting area decreased year - on - year. As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1% [148][150]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of September 18, US soybean exports were lower than the same period last year. There is a risk that US soybean exports may fall short of expectations [157]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing**: As of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The oil mill's operating rate may decline in the future [163]. - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: As of October 31, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 8.7% week - on - week. The terminal demand is relatively good [170]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of November 6, the 01 contract basis was about 49.43, and the 1 - 5 spread was 248 [175]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 6, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 42,102 hands, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [181]. Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot market improved. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the national in - production laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment continued to slow down [184]. - **Cost, Income and Breeding Profit**: As of November 6, egg prices increased slightly week - on - week but were significantly lower than the same period last year. The breeding profit was in a loss state and deteriorated compared with last week [191][193].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 5.47%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view on the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract. Attention should be paid to the buyer's purchasing enthusiasm and the change in the purchasing structure [9][10][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy suggestion: Short - term bearish on the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract [9]. - Future trading reminders: Monitor spot prices and the consumer side. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants for new - season raw materials has weakened, and attention should be paid to changes in the purchasing enthusiasm and structure of buyers [10]. - Market review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 5.47% [10][15]. - Market outlook: In the Xinjiang main producing area, the procurement of new - season jujubes in areas such as Hotan has ended, and the harvesting progress in areas such as Alar and Aksu is 30% - 40%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year increase of 131.35%. The prices in the sales area have been slightly adjusted downwards, and downstream customers are mostly on the sidelines and purchase as needed [10][44]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 5.47% [15]. - Top 20 positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures is - 11282 lots [18]. - Warehouse receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts is 0 [22]. - Futures spread: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2601 contract and the 2605 contract is - 110 yuan/ton [25]. - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures is 590 yuan/ton [29]. - Purchase price in the main producing area: As of November 7, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu is 6.60 yuan/kg, in Alar is 6.90 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar is 7.35 yuan/kg [32]. - Spot price of first - grade jujubes: As of November 7, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei is 4.5 yuan/jin, and in Henan is 4.65 yuan/jin [36]. - Spot price of special - grade jujubes: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei is 10.18 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan is 10.3 yuan/kg [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side - Inventory: As of November 6, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year increase of 131.35% [44]. - Supply side - Production decline possibility: The jujube production in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [48]. - Demand side - Export volume: In September 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2283671 kg, with an export value of 36347933 yuan and an average export price of 15916.449 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.43% month - on - month and 13.54% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 23548402 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.12% [50]. - Demand side - BOCE Xinjiang jujube trading: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang jujube "Good Brand" had a small amount of orders [55]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Options market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for jujubes this week is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [56]. - Stock market - Haoxiangni: A chart of Haoxiangni's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [58].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - For corn, in the short - term, it is advised to adopt a volatile mindset. The US corn harvest is advancing, increasing supply pressure, but the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In the domestic market, there is a large supply, but rigid demand exists, and the expansion of China Grain Reserves Corporation's procurement has boosted the enthusiasm of traders. The corn futures price generally fluctuated and closed higher this week [10]. - For corn starch, in the short - term, it is also recommended to take a volatile approach. The supply of raw corn is abundant, and the industry's operating rate is rising, increasing supply - side pressure. Downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. Starch futures also fluctuated and closed higher in sync with the corn market this week [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term volatile mindset [9]. - **Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed higher in a low - level oscillation, with a closing price of 2149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week [10]. - **Outlook**: By November 2, the US corn harvest was 83% complete. As the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will increase, but the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides support. In the domestic market, the main producing areas are in the stage of releasing sales pressure, with sufficient supply. Feed and deep - processing rigid demand exists, and the expansion of procurement by China Grain Reserves Corporation has boosted traders' enthusiasm [10]. - **Corn Starch**: - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - term volatile mindset [13]. - **Review**: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures oscillated narrowly, with a closing price of 2462 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from last week [14]. - **Outlook**: With the increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, the supply of raw corn is abundant. The processing profit of enterprises has recovered, the industry's operating rate has continued to rise, and supply - side pressure has increased. Downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed slightly, and inventory has increased slightly. As of November 5, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 113.8 tons, up 1.00 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.89%, a monthly increase of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.26% [14]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: - Corn futures' January contract closed higher in a low - level oscillation, with a total position of 977019 lots, an increase of 45868 lots from last week [20]. - Corn starch futures' January contract closed higher in an oscillation, with a total position of 226082 lots, an increase of 14599 lots from last week [20]. - **Top Twenty Net Position Changes**: - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 118210, compared with - 79110 last week, with an increase in net short positions [26]. - The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 58773, compared with - 54866 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [26]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 66351 lots [32]. - The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 12453 lots [32]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn futures and the average spot price was + 87 yuan/ton [37]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch futures and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 138 yuan/ton [42]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was - 28 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level in the same period [48]. - The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 10 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 313 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 524 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: - As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2487.67 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2236.47 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 251.2 yuan/ton [62]. - In the 45th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 322 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton from last week [62]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Corn - Supply Side**: - **Inventory in North and South Ports**: As of October 31, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 42.5 tons, an increase of 15.50 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.7 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 102.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.6 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 71.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.20 tons [52]. - **Domestic Corn Sales Progress**: As of November 6, 2025, the total sales progress of domestic corn was 22%, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18%, a year - on - year increase of 3%; in North China was 20%, a year - on - year increase of 1%; in Northwest China was 42%, a year - on - year increase of 4% [64]. - **Monthly Import Arrivals**: In September 2025, China's total corn imports were 56562.26 tons, a decrease of 256532.84 tons from the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 81.93%, and a month - on - month increase of 20404.55 tons from the previous month [68]. - **Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory Days**: As of November 6, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.88 days, an increase of 0.78 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.24%, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.89% [72]. - **Corn - Demand Side**: - **Pig and Breeding Sow Inventory Changes**: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads year - on - year, a growth of 2.3%, and an increase of 12.33 million heads quarter - on - quarter, a growth of 2.9%. Among them, the breeding sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 0.28 million heads year - on - year, a decrease of 0.7%, and a decrease of 0.09 million heads quarter - on - quarter, a slight decrease of 0.2% [76]. - **Breeding Profit Changes**: As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was - 89.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 179.72 yuan/head [80]. - **Starch and Alcohol Enterprises' Profit Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 114 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 292 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 429 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 233 yuan/ton [84]. - **Corn Starch - Supply Side**: - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of November 5, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, a decrease of 1.13% from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 16.47% [88]. - **Starch Enterprises' Operating Rate and Inventory**: From October 30 to November 5, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 62.65 tons, an increase of 2.93 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.47 tons, an increase of 2.02 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 62.77%, an increase of 3.9% from last week. As of November 5, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 113.8 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons from last week, a weekly increase of 0.89%, a monthly increase of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.26% [92]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 7, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn, which closed higher in an oscillation, was 8.51%, a decrease of 0.64% from last week's 9.15%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, being at a relatively low level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views 粕类产业 - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the cost - side support is strong. The downward space is limited. The near - month shipment crushing margin is negative, and there is still a gap of more than 8 million tons from November to January. With the strengthening support of US soybeans, it is expected to be difficult to purchase cheap soybeans in the future, and the support for soybean meal will increase [1]. 油脂产业 - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected to rebound to the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range in the short - term, and then face resistance. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, and it is expected to rise to the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. CBOT soybean is near the technical pressure level. CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range shock in the short - term. Domestically, the supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the basis quotation fluctuates little [2]. 生猪产业 - The spot price has declined recently, the secondary fattening has increased again, the spot supply is normal, and the slaughter enterprises have little difficulty in purchasing. The pig price fluctuates mainly. The overall slaughter progress will slow down in November, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and be bullish on the single - side. The 3 - 7 reverse spread can continue to be held [4]. 玉米 industry - In the supply side, the supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and the price is stable due to farmers' reluctance to sell and state reserve support. In the North China, the purchase and sale are average, and the price is also stable. In the demand side, the enthusiasm for building inventories in the trading link is average, the deep - processing inventory is stable, and the feed inventory is replenished due to being at a low level, but it is still mainly for rigid demand, and the long - term orders are few. The corn supply rhythm is okay currently, the market is in a low - level shock in the short - term, but there is still selling pressure in November [7]. 白糖 industry - The expected increase in supply surplus, weakening energy prices, and good weather in major producing areas have led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure, but there is significant cost support below 5400. The spot market is tepid, and the market maintains a low - level shock [12]. 棉花 industry - The new cotton cost supports the cotton price, but there is also hedging pressure for the price to rise. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large, and textile enterprises have demand for purchasing cotton raw materials at low prices. The cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply pressure. The price may be in a dilemma of rising or falling, but with the slow recovery of demand, it may gradually rise. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.99%) from the previous day. The futures price of M2601 is 3068 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.16%). The basis of M2601 is - 8 yuan, up 35 yuan (81.40%) [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2550 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of RM2601 is 2549 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.47%). The basis of RM2601 is 1 yuan, down 12 yuan (-92.31%) [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4146 yuan, up 23 yuan (0.56%). The basis of the main soybean contract is - 226 yuan, down 23 yuan (-11.33%) [1]. 油脂产业 - **Palm oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's first - grade palm oil is 8390 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.12%). The futures price of Y2601 is 8188 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.61%). The basis of Y2601 is 202 yuan, down 40 yuan (-16.53%) [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The current price of Guangdong's 24 - degree palm oil is 8540 yuan, down 10 yuan (-0.12%). The futures price of P2601 is 8732 yuan, up 142 yuan (1.65%). The basis of P2601 is - 192 yuan, down 152 yuan (-380.00%) [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil is 9780 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.31%). The futures price of OI601 is 9564 yuan, up 157 yuan (1.67%). The basis of OI601 is 216 yuan, down 127 yuan (-37.03%) [2]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 12025 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-0.12%); the price of live pigs 2601 is 11940 yuan, down 5 yuan (-0.04%); the 1 - 5 spread is - 82 yuan, up 10 yuan (10.53%) [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 12020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Sichuan is 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 is 2154 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.94%); the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan, unchanged; the basis is - 4 yuan, down 20 yuan (-125.00%) [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2469 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.73%); the spot price in Changchun is 2510 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 41 yuan, down 18 yuan (-30.51%) [7]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.13%); the price of sugar 2605 is 5388 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.09%); the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.22 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents (0.71%) [12]. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.88%); the Nanning basis is 362 yuan, up 55 yuan (17.92%) [12]. 棉花 industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13615 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 is 13605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.07%); the ICE US cotton main contract is 64.48 cents/pound, down 0.59 cents (-0.91%) [13]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 14618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.06%); the CC Index of 3128B is 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.03%) [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 12 - contract is 3227 yuan/500KG, up 10 yuan (0.31%); the price of the egg 01 - contract is 3386 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.03%); the basis is - 295 yuan/500KG, up 37 yuan (11.19%) [15]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying chicken chick price is 2.80 yuan/feather, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled chicken price is 4.11 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan (-4.20%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.38, up 0.03 (1.28%) [15].

Core Insights - The "China-US Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum" emphasizes the importance of agricultural cooperation between the two countries, highlighting mutual benefits and the potential for global food security and economic prosperity [1][3] - The forum aims to strengthen agricultural trade cooperation and trust amid global challenges such as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, positioning agricultural trade as a stabilizing force in US-China relations [3][4] Group 1: Trade Relations - The US and China are significant agricultural trade partners, with agricultural cooperation being a crucial component of their economic relationship [1][3] - The US soybean industry is a key area of focus, with the USDA predicting global soybean production to reach 427 million tons by the 2025/26 season, with the US contributing over 25% [3] - The US Grain Association expresses commitment to maintaining trade relations with China, emphasizing the importance of open and mutually beneficial trade [4][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - China is the largest market for US sorghum, with imports expected to reach 8.657 million tons in 2024, primarily from the US, Australia, and Argentina [6] - The US is facing challenges with high input costs and declining prices, impacting farmers' ability to sustain their operations [6][7] - The US agricultural sector is optimistic about future trade opportunities, emphasizing the need for continued communication to improve trade relations [7]

Core Viewpoint - Canada faces significant trade challenges with China after imposing high tariffs on electric vehicles, leading to China's retaliatory actions against Canadian canola imports, which has resulted in a shift in China's sourcing strategy towards Australia and India [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Market Dynamics - Following the imposition of tariffs by Canada, China ceased importing over 4 million tons of canola annually from Canada, prompting the Canadian government to seek a restoration of trade relations [1]. - China has begun to significantly increase its imports of Australian canola, filling the gap left by Canadian canola in the Chinese market [3]. - India is also emerging as a competitor, with record procurement levels and an increase in canola planting area, expected to reach a historical high [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on Canadian Agriculture - In the first half of the fiscal year, Canada saw a dramatic decline in canola exports to China, with Saskatchewan's canola farmers facing a "bumper crop but no profit" situation due to low prices and excess inventory [5]. - The Canadian canola industry is heavily reliant on the Chinese market, with 67% of canola from Saskatchewan depending on it, which poses a significant risk to employment and economic stability in the sector [5][7]. - The price competitiveness of Indian canola meal, at $202 per ton, compared to the EU market price of $332 per ton, places Canadian products at a disadvantage [7]. Group 3: Government Response and Policy Adjustments - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Carney, has begun to adjust its policy towards China, signaling a willingness to engage in dialogue and potentially lift tariffs on electric vehicles in exchange for easing restrictions on canola imports [9]. - There is a growing call from Canadian agricultural leaders for the federal government to abandon discriminatory tariffs and repair relations with China [9]. - China's stance remains firm, emphasizing that any future cooperation must be based on mutual respect and equality, rejecting any opportunistic behavior from Canada [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Poultry and Oilseeds**: The market is affected by the US tariff decision and high domestic inventory, with poor profit control and limited support for demand. Future soybean procurement may face challenges, but the support for soybean meal is expected to increase [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, while domestic palm oil and soybean oil futures are expected to show a volatile rebound. The demand for domestic soybean oil is expected to remain stable, and the basis quotation is expected to have limited fluctuation [2]. - **Hogs**: The current hog market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited downward space. The slowdown of the overall slaughter progress in November may boost hog prices to some extent. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in single - side operations, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The supply in the Northeast and North China regions is stable. The demand side shows general inventory - building enthusiasm in the trading sector. The corn market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and there is a selling pressure expectation in November [7]. - **Sugar**: The expected increase in supply surplus and weakening energy prices have led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is under pressure but has significant cost support at around 5400. The spot market is tepid, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [12]. - **Cotton**: The new cotton cost provides strong support for cotton prices, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure is not large. Short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the egg market still faces a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The price is expected to be in a difficult - to - rise - or - fall state initially and then gradually transition to a slow - rising trend. The egg price is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Poultry and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The futures price of M2601 is 3068 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The basis of M2601 is - 8 yuan/ton, up 81.40%. The spot basis quotation in Jiangsu is m2601 - 60 [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of RM2601 is 2549 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The basis of RM2601 is 1 yuan/ton, down 92.31% [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4146 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The basis of the main soybean contract is - 226 yuan/ton, down 11.33% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 241 yuan/ton, down 3.21%. The rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 133 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.74, down 0.86%, and that of the main contract is 2.67, up 0.78% [1]. Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: The current price of first - grade palm oil in Jiangsu is 8390 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The futures price of Y2601 is 8188 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The basis of Y2601 is 202 yuan/ton, down 16.53% [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: The current price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9780 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The futures price of OI601 is 9564 yuan/ton, up 1.67%. The basis of OI601 is 216 yuan/ton, down 37.03% [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2601 is 1376 yuan/ton, up 8.43%. The soybean oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 182 yuan/ton, down 3.19% [2]. Hogs - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 57.89%. The futures price of hog 2605 is 12040 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The futures price of hog 2601 is 11940 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong is 12020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 is 2154 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is - 4 yuan/ton, down 125.00% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 is 2469 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. The spot price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 41 yuan/ton, down 30.51% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 is 5448 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The futures price of sugar 2605 is 5388 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.22 cents/pound, up 0.71% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The spot price in Kunming is 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Nanning basis is 362 yuan/ton, up 17.92% [12]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2605 is 13615 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The futures price of cotton 2601 is 13605 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE US cotton main contract is 64.48 cents/pound, down 0.91% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of 3128B in Xinjiang is 14618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The CC Index of 3128B is 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 172.02 tons, up 69.85 tons. The industrial inventory is 80.93 tons, down 3.62 tons [13]. Eggs - **Futures Indicators**: The futures price of the egg 12 - contract is 3227 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The futures price of the egg 01 - contract is 3386 yuan/500KG, up 0.03% [15]. - **Spot Indicators**: The egg price in the production area is 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The egg - feed ratio is 2.38, up 0.03 [15].