Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.092 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.98%, and achieved a net profit of 73.04 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5] - The company has successfully met its annual target for pig production, with a significant increase in sales prices and production volume, indicating effective cost control and growth in output [6] - A recent capital increase plan has been approved, which will raise up to 1.6 billion yuan to support new pig farm projects and repay bank loans, alleviating financial pressure [7] - The company is expected to see further improvements in profitability, with projected EPS of 0.40 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 1.52 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 10.62 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.7 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 5.3 billion yuan [4] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 72.4% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 88.50 [4] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 9.092 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.98% [9] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.102 billion yuan, 11.255 billion yuan, and 12.383 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 11.12%, 11.40%, and 10.03% [9] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, reaching 253.64 million yuan in 2025 and 962.02 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 247.26% and 127.58% respectively [9] Cost Management - The company has managed to reduce breeding costs, with an expected cost of approximately 16 yuan per kilogram for 2024, showing a steady decline throughout the year [6] - The average selling price of pigs in 2024 was 16.61 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.46% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 28.767 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 346 million yuan, an increase of 115.91% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.625 billion yuan, down 8.81% year-on-year but up 22.39% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's feed business revenue for 2024 was 19.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20%, primarily due to falling feed prices and slight volume decreases [2] - The total sales volume of feed for the year was 5.41 million tons, down 7.6% year-on-year, with pig feed sales at 4.28 million tons, down 8.2% [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The pig farming segment generated a revenue of 6.28 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10%, with a gross margin of 19.8%, significantly improved from -27.9% in 2023 [2] - The company plans to sell 6.4 million pigs in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with 3.59 million from the controlling company and 2.81 million from joint ventures [2] Group 3: Research and Development - The company has obtained 20 biosafety certificates for genetically modified organisms (15 for corn and 5 for soybeans) as of the end of 2024, with 15 new varieties approved this year [3] - The R&D expenditure for 2024 was 675 million yuan, with an R&D expense ratio of 2.3%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 730 million yuan, a decrease of 34%, and for 2026 to 500 million yuan, a decrease of 69% [4] - The target price for the company is set at 5.12 yuan, down from the previous 5.56 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 10.77 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 103.06 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 90.05% to 474 million RMB [1][2]. - The focus on core business operations has led to significant operational optimization, with expectations for continued cost reduction and improved financial stability [1][3]. - The company’s pig farming business has shown a substantial reduction in losses due to rising pig prices and cost optimization, while the feed business remains a stable profit contributor [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the feed segment generated 68.7 billion RMB in revenue, down 15% year-on-year, while the pig farming segment saw a revenue increase of 43% to 30.4 billion RMB [2]. - The average weaning cost per pig decreased by 90 RMB to 290 RMB, and the average survival rate for fattening pigs improved to 92% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026, predicting net profits of 1.35 billion RMB and 440 million RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 introduced [4]. - The target price of 10.77 RMB corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 1.89 for 2025, reflecting the company's improving financial condition and operational metrics [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co., Ltd. (Shennong Group) reported significant financial changes, with a remarkable increase in net cash flow from operating activities and a substantial rise in financial expenses, indicating adjustments in operational status and financial strategy [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue increased significantly to 5.584 billion yuan, up 43.51% from 3.891 billion yuan, primarily driven by higher sales volume and prices of live pigs [2] - The net profit turned from a loss of 401 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 687 million yuan, a 271.16% increase, attributed to higher sales volume and prices of live pigs, along with improved management efficiency [3] - Basic earnings per share rose to 1.31 yuan from a loss of 0.77 yuan, reflecting a 270.13% increase, indicating enhanced profitability [4] Expense Analysis - Sales expenses slightly increased by 6.65% to 69.32 million yuan, driven by higher employee compensation and brand promotion efforts [5] - Management expenses rose by 15.13% to 335 million yuan due to company expansion, necessitating attention to management efficiency [6] - Financial expenses surged by 2843.17% to 25.67 million yuan, primarily due to increased interest expenses, indicating a potential rise in debt burden [7] Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities skyrocketed by 7769.11% to 1.534 billion yuan, reflecting strong operational cash generation capabilities [10] - Net cash flow from investing activities decreased by 17.42% to -979 million yuan, suggesting a more cautious investment approach [11] - Net cash flow from financing activities dropped significantly by 117.38% to -72.87 million yuan, indicating increased debt repayments [12] R&D and Personnel Insights - R&D expenses decreased by 26.61% to 13.75 million yuan, representing only 0.25% of total revenue, which may impact long-term innovation capabilities [8][13] - The R&D team is relatively young, with 25 out of 35 personnel under 30 years old, indicating potential for innovation but requiring experience development [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong performance in Q1 and maintains a long-term positive outlook for the pet sector [3] - The pig price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a long-term bearish outlook for 2025 due to increased supply [5][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to tariff impacts and supply chain adjustments [6][28] - The animal health sector is poised for valuation recovery driven by improved downstream demand and expansion opportunities [7][39] - The planting sector is experiencing a significant decrease in grain imports, which may affect pricing dynamics [8][44] - The feed sector remains at a low level, with expectations of increased industry concentration [9][47] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong domestic brand performance [10][52] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly downwards, with a long-term bearish trend anticipated for 2025 due to increased production capacity [5][14] - As of April 24, the average pig price was 14.96 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may benefit from tariff impacts, with a potential price increase due to supply chain disruptions [6][28] - The industry is expected to stabilize at low production levels, leading to stable profitability [6][29] Animal Health - The animal health sector is seeing improved performance, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [7][39] - The prices of key raw materials are rising, which may enhance the performance of related companies [7][39] Planting Sector - A notable decline in grain imports was recorded in March, with a 73.5% year-on-year decrease [8][44] - The prices of major grains have shown some recovery, with corn priced at 2220 CNY/ton as of April 25 [8][44] Feed Industry - Feed prices are currently low, with a slight decrease in the price of pig feed [9][47] - The industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for leading companies [9][49] Pet Industry - The pet market in China reached a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [10][52] - Domestic brands are rapidly gaining market share, with significant growth reported for leading pet food brands [10][56]

Macroeconomic Overview - In March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 1509.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a profit growth of 2.6% in March alone [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year profit increase of 7.6% for the first three months, rebounding by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous two months [3] - The profit margin for operating income was 4.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous two months, while the asset-liability ratio stood at 57.7% [3] Industry Performance - The industries with the highest year-on-year profit growth in March included railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals and textiles [3] - Conversely, industries such as coal mining, furniture manufacturing, and textile and apparel faced significant declines in profit [3] - Specific profit growth rates for various industries in March are detailed in the report, highlighting significant variances across sectors [4] Automotive Sector Insights - The retail volume of passenger vehicles in April is estimated to be around 1.75 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, slightly faster than the 14.3% growth in March [6] - New energy vehicle retail sales are projected to reach 900,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, although this is lower than the 41.9% growth seen in March [6] - The overall discount rate in the domestic passenger car market is approximately 23.7%, indicating a slight recovery from the end of March [6] Nuclear Power Industry Developments - The State Council approved five new nuclear power projects, totaling 10 new units, with an estimated total investment exceeding 200 billion yuan [8] - The investment intensity for each third-generation nuclear power unit is approximately 20 billion yuan, indicating a significant commitment to nuclear energy development [8] - The continuous approval of nuclear power units over the past four years is expected to sustain the industry's growth and investment opportunities [8] Consumer Sector Analysis - New Hope's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 103.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 27.3%, while net profit increased by 90.1% [10] - The liquor industry, represented by Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, is experiencing a slowdown, with revenue and profit growth rates in the single digits [10] - Gree Electric achieved a revenue of 190.04 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 7.3%, but net profit grew by 10.9%, indicating a positive trend in the first quarter of 2025 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, highlighting their cost advantages and strong performance capabilities [3][58]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant overselling, with seasonal price weakness in pig prices, but overall performance is better than market expectations. Factors such as frozen product inventory and secondary fattening still have room for improvement, indicating that the bottom of pig prices remains supported [1][58]. - In March 2025, the total number of pigs sold by 15 listed pig companies reached 17.69 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%, marking a historical high for monthly sales [40][58]. - The report emphasizes that the supply of breeding sows is expected to grow slowly in 2024, leading to limited growth in pig supply in 2025. The cost variance among different farming entities remains significant, allowing high-quality pig companies to achieve considerable profits and continue to repair their balance sheets [58]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Profitability and Production Capacity - Pig prices continue to be weak, while piglet prices remain strong. In March 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.6 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease year-on-year and month-on-month. The price of piglets was 610 yuan/head, reflecting a year-on-year increase [11][15]. - The profitability of pig farming continues to narrow, with the average profit for self-bred pigs at 42.4 yuan/head, down 39% month-on-month. The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [15][16]. - Sample companies showed significant overselling in March, with actual sales exceeding planned sales by 6.8%. The frozen product inventory has increased seasonally, indicating a rise in storage willingness among slaughter enterprises [23][58]. Section 2: Sales Growth and Piglet Volume - The total number of pigs sold by listed companies in March 2025 was 17.69 million, with a notable increase in piglet sales, which reached 2.62 million, a year-on-year increase of 196% [40][41]. - The average weight of pigs sold in March was 124 kg, reflecting a slight increase year-on-year and month-on-month, driven by the narrowing price gap [55][58]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is expected to maintain support at the bottom price level, with a focus on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance capabilities. The recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention to Shennong Group and Dongrui Co [58].

行 业 及 产 业 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 农林牧渔 2025 年 04 月 28 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 25Q1 公募配置比例降至历史低位，重视宠食企业业 绩兑现 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.4.21 -2025.4.27） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 0.4%。个股涨幅前五名：万辰集团（22.2%）、 中宠股份（15.5%）、乖宝宠物（15.3%）、瑞普生物（15.0%）、ST 佳沃（14.9%），跌幅前五名： 益客食品（-13.6%）、福成股份（-12.9%）、祖名股份（-10.9 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic partnership between Dingdong Maicai and Gaojin Food to deepen their collaboration in the black pig industry, establishing a joint venture to enhance their market presence and product offerings [2][5] - Gaojin Food's CEO emphasized the importance of traceability in the black pig market, addressing consumer concerns and aiming to build trust through a transparent supply chain [2][3] - The black pig industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% in the coming years, following a CAGR of 14.5% from 2014 to 2020, with an expected output of around 20 million pigs [2][3] Group 2 - Despite being the largest pork consumer and producer, China’s black pig market remains underdeveloped, accounting for less than 4% of the overall pig market, which is dominated by white pigs [3] - Gaojin Food has over 20 years of experience in highland black pig farming and has developed a unique breeding and processing model, collaborating with research institutions to enhance genetic quality [3][4] - The company is establishing high-standard breeding bases in high-altitude areas of Southwest China and aims to expand its black pig products beyond the local market through strategic partnerships and a robust supply chain [4][5] Group 3 - Dingdong Maicai plans to invest in the breeding of 30,000 black pigs within a year and is focusing on optimizing the supply chain through its partnership with Gaojin Food [5] - The collaboration will involve joint efforts in breeding management, quality control, and market demand analysis, leveraging both companies' strengths to enhance product offerings such as black pig oil and lunch meat [5]