英镑兑美元短线波动不大，现报1.3525。英国首相斯塔默称，致力于将美国对英国钢铁的关税降至零。 以色列最近在加沙的行动令人发指且并无成效。 ...

2025年6月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1886，上调（人民币贬值）17点； 欧元/人民币报8.1853，下调316点； 港元/人民币报0.91635，上调1.8点； 英镑/人民币报9.7324，上调74点； 澳元/人民币报4.6513，下调79点； 加元/人民币报5.2461，上调142点； 100日元/人民币报4.9977，下调375点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9896，下调267点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3203，下调139点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59019，下调16点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7392，下调497点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5788，下调72点。 ...

2025年6月3日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1869，上调（人民币贬值）21点； 欧元/人民币报8.2169，上调549点； 港元/人民币报0.91617，下调2.5点； 英镑/人民币报9.7250，上调406点； 澳元/人民币报4.6592，上调368点； 加元/人民币报5.2319，上调360点； 100日元/人民币报5.0352，上调491点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.0163，上调2726点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3342，上调476点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59179，上调12.9点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7889，上调646点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5860，上调77点。 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Outlook - A recent poll of real estate experts indicates that the outlook for UK house prices has remained stable over the past three months due to expectations of declining borrowing costs [1] - Nationwide, house prices are expected to rise by 3.5% this year, consistent with predictions made in February [1] - In London, house prices are projected to increase by 3.0% this year, 4.0% next year, and 3.8% by 2027 [1] Group 2: Rental Market Dynamics - Urban rental prices are rising faster than house prices, making it more difficult for new buyers to save for necessary mortgages [3] - Nationwide, urban rents are expected to increase by 4.3% this year, while London rents are projected to rise by 3.7% [3] - The upcoming "Renters' Rights Bill" will impose additional conditions and tax changes on landlords, potentially driving some out of the market and contributing to a supply shortage in the rental sector [3] Group 3: Currency and Trade Implications - The British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, rising by 0.12% to 1.347, although it remains slightly below the peak of 1.359 reached earlier [5] - The pound's recent performance is attributed to investor reactions to uncertain US trade policies and expectations that the Bank of England will reduce the pace of interest rate cuts [8] - A recent court ruling has blocked certain tariffs imposed by former President Trump, which has positively impacted market sentiment and may alleviate ongoing tariff volatility [12] Group 4: Pension Fund Reforms - The UK government aims to merge multiple pension plans into a "super fund" with assets of at least £250 billion ($340 billion) by 2030, as part of a broader initiative to boost domestic investment [10] - The consolidation of pension plans is expected to facilitate investments in a wider range of assets, including private markets such as infrastructure and real estate [10] - The government is also implementing reforms to ensure that pension plans meet established allocation targets for non-liquid assets, similar to pension systems in Australia and Canada [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum among various countries, particularly in Asia, driven by factors such as trade agreements and increased investment in alternative assets like gold and digital currencies [1][3]. Group 1: Indicators of De-dollarization - A recent study by Forex Complex identified three main indicators of de-dollarization: the decreasing share of the dollar in national reserves, the increasing share of gold, and the growing use of alternative currencies in bilateral trade [3]. - Countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Japan are leading the efforts in de-dollarization, indicating a systematic shift away from reliance on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Regional Developments - ASEAN has established an agreement prioritizing local currency transactions to mitigate risks associated with U.S. monetary policy changes and trade restrictions [3]. - Indonesia has reported that approximately 15% of its trade with China and Japan is conducted using alternative currencies, including the use of the Indonesian rupiah for transactions with Japan [3]. Group 3: Impact of the Pandemic - The trend towards reducing dependence on the dollar has become particularly pronounced following the COVID-19 pandemic, as many Asian countries seek to lessen their reliance on a dollar-denominated financial system [5]. - The rise of the Chinese yuan is notable, with China establishing closer ties with ASEAN and Middle Eastern countries through yuan-denominated trade [5]. Group 4: Current Currency Shares - As of March, the yuan accounted for approximately 4.1% of global payment shares, significantly lower than the dollar's 49%, but its growth potential is considerable given China's economic size and growth prospects [5].

研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/30 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/29 | 4.420 | 4.647 | 3.176 | 2.506 | 3.488 | 3.109 | - | 3.230 | | 最新变化 | -0.060 | -0.079 | -0.047 | -0.047 | -0.046 | -0.045 | - | -0.047 | | 一周变化 | -0.110 | -0.102 | -0.144 | -0.136 | -0.163 | -0.148 | - | -0.148 | | 一月变化 | 0.210 | 0.139 | -0.060 | -0.013 | -0.139 | -0.071 | - | -0.117 | | 一年变化 | 0.007 | 0 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold price is 3296.70 with no change [1] - London Silver price is 32.90 with no change [1] - London Platinum price is 1085.00 with no change [1] - London Palladium price is 986.00 with no change [1] - WTI Crude price is 60.89 with no change [1] - LME Copper price is 9577.50 with a change of 0.50 [1] - Dollar Index is 99.61 with no change [8] - Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.13 with no change [8] - British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.35 with no change [8] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 144.36 with no change [8] - US 10 - year TIPS is 2.11 with no change [8] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory is 15467.85 with no change [2] - SHFE Silver inventory is 1006.25 with a change of 17.93 [2] - Gold ETF持仓 is 925.61 with a change of 3.15 [2] - Silver ETF持仓 is 14217.50 with no change [2] - SGE Silver inventory is 1574.34 with no change [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2]

周三（5月28日）亚洲交易时段早盘，美元兑加元延续震荡上行态势，汇价在1.38整数关口上方交投，市场聚焦美联储政策路径与加拿大经济数据对汇率的 双重影响。 技术面显示，美元兑加元正面临关键技术位考验。日线图显示，汇价当前运行于布林带中轨1.3865附近，上方重要阻力位依次为1.3870心理关口及布林带上 轨1.4007。下行支撑方面，1.3730水平位构成首道防线，跌破后将测试布林带下轨1.3722支撑。MACD指标显示，DIFF线（-0.0044）与DEA线（-0.0038）的 负向差值收窄，柱状图收缩至-0.0010，暗示空头动能逐步衰竭，需警惕金叉信号形成可能。RSI指标报43.4988，虽仍处中性区间但较前期低点反弹，显示短 期存在技术性修正需求，但尚未触及超卖阈值，下行空间尚未完全封闭。 近期美国经济数据呈现分化格局，但整体仍为美元提供支撑。美国谘商会5月消费者信心指数跃升至98.0，显著高于4月修正后的86.0，显示家庭部门对经济 前景的乐观情绪升温。尽管4月耐用品订单环比下降6.3%，但该数据仍优于市场预期的7.9%降幅，且前值从9.2%下修至7.6%后，数据落差并未显著超出预 期。明尼阿波利斯 ...