Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". For specific varieties, the outlook for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon is "oscillation", while the outlook for coking coal is "oscillation with a slight upward trend" [5][7][8][10][12][13][15][17] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry have limited highlights. However, the policy tone remains positive, and there are still expectations for winter storage and restocking. The futures market is expected to have room for a rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited. The overall market presents an oscillatory pattern [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - Steel is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. Although there is a slight improvement in demand and inventory is decreasing, the inventory level is still high year - on - year, and the upside space for the futures market is limited. Iron ore has a strong support at the bottom of the futures market due to the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Coal and coke are in a state of low - level valuation repair. Coke's supply - demand structure may tighten, and coking coal's fundamentals will continue to improve marginally [1][2] 2. Sub - sectors Analysis Iron Element - Iron ore: The demand support from molten iron is weakening, the port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills have not started restocking. The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. Scrap steel: Supply is decreasing while demand is stable. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. With the expected steel mill复产 in January and the start of winter storage and restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the import pressure will ease in January. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the futures valuation still has room for repair [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of the manganese silicon market remains loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upside space for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation in the medium term. Ferrosilicon: The upstream supply pressure has eased, but the market has weak supply and demand in the off - season. The upside space for the futures price should not be overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern will further intensify in the long term, with the price center continuing to decline [3] 3. Index Information - On December 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.22% on that day, 0.35% in the past 5 days, 0.04% in the past month, and decreased by 6.04% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-24 淡季现实与冬储预期博弈，盘⾯震荡运 ⾏ 钢⼚复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿盘⾯下⽅⽀撑较强，煤焦估值 低位修复。但⽬前淡季钢材供需双弱，铁矿港⼝库存累积，煤焦补库 空间有限，基本⾯亮点有限，盘⾯继续上涨乏⼒，价格震荡运⾏。 钢厂复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，铁矿盘面下方支撑较强，煤焦估值 低位修复。但目前淡季钢材供需双弱，铁矿港口库存累积，煤焦补库 空间有限，基本面亮点有限，盘面继续上涨乏力，价格震荡运行。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库未至，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需 稳，钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废 钢需求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，现货继续提降预期较 低，随着焦钢企业原料冬储补库逐渐开启，现货价格将有更强支撑， 预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基 本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 3. 合金方面：锰硅市场供需宽松格局难改，上游库存压力较大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. Report Core View - Steel prices are supported by the cost - end but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3]. - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non - mainstream mines as the main source of incremental supply, exerting significant supply pressure. However, iron ore also has upward drivers such as the expected bottoming of hot - metal production, so it is expected to trade in a range [21]. - As terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts, the valuation repair drive may be weakened [30]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys show both weak supply and demand. Their price increase space is limited, but they are also supported by costs [46]. - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming into production, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The spot - futures basis is high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be shut down for cold repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Price - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3116 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [4]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3330 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Beijing was 3130 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shenyang was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [8][10]. Basis and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 204 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day; the 05 basis was 192 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 10 basis was 151 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 10 basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 164 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 05 spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 spread was 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [8][10][14]. Iron Ore Price and Basis - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 796.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 09 contract was 756.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The 01 basis was - 2.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the 05 basis was 13.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the 09 basis was 34.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [22]. Fundamental Data - From December 19, 2025, the average daily hot - metal output was 226.55 tons, down 2.65 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port desilting volume was 313.45 tons, down 5.74 tons week - on - week; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 835 tons, down 4 tons week - on - week; the global shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, down 128 tons week - on - week; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2748.6 tons, down 140.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2646.7 tons, down 76.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, up 81.21 tons week - on - week; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8723.95 tons, down 110.25 tons week - on - week; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.09 days, down 0.1 days week - on - week [25]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 159 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 78 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The coke 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 142 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan. The on - disk coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, down 19.281 yuan; the main mine - coke ratio was 0.447, down 0.001; the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.797, up 0.004; the main coke - coking coal ratio was 1.544, down 0.021 [33]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No.5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged [37]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 23, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 48 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Qinghai was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shaanxi was 5320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Gansu was 5300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [47]. Silicon Manganese - On December 23, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 98 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 116 yuan/ton, unchanged. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia was 5570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangxi was 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48][49]. Soda Ash Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.51%; the 09 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.74%; the 01 contract was 1117 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with a change of 5.56%; the 9 - 1 spread was 115 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, with a change of 0.88%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with a change of - 3.33%. The basis of Shahe heavy soda was - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the basis of Qinghai heavy soda was - 249 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [61]. Spot Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the market price of heavy soda in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in South China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shahe was 1137 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The market price of light soda in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between heavy and light soda in most regions was 50 - 70 yuan/ton [61]. Glass Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1028 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.29%; the 09 contract was 1130 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the 01 contract was 938 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 77 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Hubei was 159 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 05 contract basis in Shahe was - 33 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was 59 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was - 130 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was - 41 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [84]. Sales and Production - From December 13 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was between 69 - 98%; in Hubei was between 75 - 109%; in East China was between 83 - 98%; in South China was between 95 - 107% [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has average trading volume, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash markets are showing a weak and fluctuating trend, while silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have different trends with their own supply - demand characteristics [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend yesterday, and the market transaction center of the spot market moved down. Soda ash futures also showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass production is oscillating at a high level, supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. Soda ash production, although declining, is still at a relatively high level, and new production lines may increase supply. There are also challenges to the demand for heavy soda ash [1] Strategy - Glass: Weak and fluctuating; Soda ash: Weak and fluctuating; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures generally trended upward yesterday, and the spot market was strong with a slight price increase. Silicon iron futures had mixed long - and short - term sentiments, showing a narrow - range fluctuating trend, and the spot price was slightly adjusted upward [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The inventory of manganese ore at ports continues to rise, and the total inventory of manganese elements increases slightly, weakening cost support. Silicon iron production has dropped significantly this week, and enterprise inventory pressure has been relieved [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Fluctuating; Silicon iron: Fluctuating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term due to high supply, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and an unimproved supply - demand mismatch [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume are in a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,115 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,169 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 54 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,176 | 1,125 | - 51 | | Current Value | 1,169 | 1,115 | - 54 | | Change Rate | - 0.60% | - 0.89% | 5.88% | [6] 5. Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 6. Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 146.70 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production method is - 109 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 82.74%. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 72.14 tons, including 39.03 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 7. Demand in Fundamentals - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 99.31% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.50 tons, with an operating rate of 73.90% [27]. 8. Inventory in Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].