Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to enter a strong seasonal rally phase following the release of annual report forecasts, with a high probability of small-cap stocks outperforming during this period [3][18]. - In 2025, the proportion of companies with low expectations and those forecasting losses or negative growth has reached new highs compared to previous years, indicating significant pressure on annual report forecasts [8][10]. - Historical data shows that the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions is characterized by a strong seasonal effect, with small-cap indices showing a 100% probability of rising during this time [19]. Group 2 - The report outlines four reversal strategies based on the operational positions of various industries as of Q3 2025, focusing on identifying sectors that may validate recovery trends in Q4 [21]. - Reversal Strategy 1 highlights industries that have already shown profit inflection points in Q3 2025, particularly in AI and energy storage, with expectations for continued recovery in lithium battery materials and storage sectors [32][35]. - Reversal Strategy 2 focuses on the computer sector, which may see profit inflection points in Q4 2025 due to prior cost and personnel reductions, indicating a potential supply clearing and demand improvement [38]. - Reversal Strategy 3 examines industries under pressure but showing signs of demand-side improvement, particularly in the U.S. manufacturing export chain, which is expected to face challenges in Q4 due to currency appreciation and tariffs [45][48]. Group 3 - The report identifies high-growth sectors that remain undervalued, including overseas computing power, domestic computing power, and offshore wind energy, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas following the annual report forecast phase [52][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S. earnings reports for insights into overseas demand trends, which could impact A-share valuations [59].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics in China, highlighting a significant divergence between traditional economy stocks and emerging sectors like non-ferrous metals and commercial aerospace, indicating a transition from a "structural bull market" to a "broad bull market" as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 4000 points [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence in market performance reflects a "new-old momentum transition," with non-ferrous metals and commercial aerospace experiencing substantial growth driven by macroeconomic and industrial logic [3][4]. - Non-ferrous metals are benefiting from a multi-dimensional resonance, including global energy transition, AI development, geopolitical uncertainties, and supply constraints, leading to a strong demand cycle [3][4]. - The rise of commercial aerospace signifies the industrialization of "new productive forces," with increasing satellite internet deployment and significant demand for rocket manufacturing and satellite development [4]. Group 2: Traditional Economy - The weakness in traditional economy stocks indicates a market waiting for performance turning points and policy catalysts, particularly in key areas like real estate that impact the consumption chain [4][5]. - Despite current underperformance, traditional stocks are expected to recover as the market transitions to a broader bull phase, with historical trends suggesting that healthy bull markets typically involve rotation across multiple sectors [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The core strategy for navigating the current market involves "focusing on prosperity, balanced allocation, and dynamic adjustment," emphasizing the importance of aligning with industry trends and maintaining core positions in strong sectors [5][6]. - Investors are advised to consider ETFs covering diverse non-ferrous metals and the entire commercial aerospace supply chain to mitigate risks and capitalize on sector growth [5][6]. - Attention should also be given to potential recovery signals in "mid-tier" and "traditional" stocks, particularly in consumer and financial sectors, as the market evolves [5][6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to exhibit an "N-shaped" trajectory in 2026, with potential highs in the first quarter followed by consolidation in the second and third quarters, before reaching new highs in the latter half of the year [6][7]. - Future excess returns are expected to stem from the industrialization of "new productive forces" and the cyclical recovery and value reassessment of the traditional economy, necessitating a balanced investment approach [7].

岁末年初，宏利投资管理、摩根资产管理、联博基金等多家外资机构相继发布2026年市场展 望， 看好A股配置价值已成为外资机构的普遍共识。 "2026年A股市场吸引力有望进一步提升，建议关注高景气核心资产、出海相关赛道以及供需 格局向好的领域。"摩根资产管理中国资深环球市场策略师蒋先威表示，随着外部不确定性减 弱，叠加国内企业盈利周期触底回升，以及"反内卷"政策对部分行业产能扩张的约束，工业企 业利润修复进程有望加快。 需求的增长，亚洲高股息资产配置价值凸显。 A股市场吸引力有望进一步提升，建议关注高景 气核心资产、出海相关赛道以及供需格局向好的领域。 宏利投资管理亚洲区股票投资部主管蔡尚琴持有相似观点，在她看来，2026年上半年，亚洲股 票前景依然向好，主要受惠于有利的货币环境及盈利能见度提升。她指出，全球投资者对亚洲 股票的配置比例仍处偏低水平，意味着存在较大的重新配置空间。 联博基金副总经理、投资总监朱良则建议关注中国"转型"契机下的资本市场表现。联博基金认 为，2026年较优配置应包含长期资产与部分红利型、营收健康的企业，尤其关注科技AI、创 新药与稳健新消费企业。 A股市场吸引力进一步提升 2025年， ...

"2026年A股市场吸引力有望进一步提升，建议关注高景气核心资产、出海相关赛道以及供需格局向好的领域。"摩根资产管理中国资深环球市 场策略师蒋先威表示，随着外部不确定性减弱，叠加国内企业盈利周期触底回升，以及"反内卷"政策对部分行业产能扩张的约束，工业企业利 润修复进程有望加快。 宏利投资管理亚洲区股票投资部主管蔡尚琴持有相似观点，在她看来，2026年上半年，亚洲股票前景依然向好，主要受惠于有利的货币环境及 盈利能见度提升。她指出，全球投资者对亚洲股票的配置比例仍处偏低水平，意味着存在较大的重新配置空间。 21世纪经济报道记者李域 岁末年初，宏利投资管理、摩根资产管理、联博基金等多家外资机构相继发布 2026 年市场展望，看好A股配置价值已成为外资机构的普遍共 识。 联博基金副总经理、投资总监朱良则建议关注中国"转型"契机下的资本市场表现。联博基金认为，2026年较优配置应包含长期资产与部分红利 型、营收健康的企业，尤其关注科技AI、创新药与稳健新消费企业。 A股市场吸引力进一步提升 2025年，A股市场表现亮眼，上证指数上涨18.41%，创下近六年以来最优的年度市场表现。深证成指、创业板指全年则分别上涨29 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂大跌 摘要 今日碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价报 148200 元/吨，盘中触及跌停 板，为近期最大单日跌幅。 | 锂电产业链相关价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 与前一 | 与前一周价 | | 指标 | | 单位 | 最新价格 | 日价格 | 格对比 | | | | | | 对比 | | | 期货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | ...

据上海有色(SMM)，1月26日SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格178964元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨10004元/ 吨；电池级碳酸锂17.8-18.5万元/吨，均价18.15万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨10500元/吨。 这场价格飙涨的背后是多重因素的共同推动。 从供给端看，严格的资源监管政策成为主要推手。7月1日，矿产资源法修订版正式实施，将锂纳入战略 性矿产目录，并作为独立矿种管理，由自然资源部统一审批采矿许可证。由此，锂资源开采门槛大幅提 高，供给收紧。此后的标志性事件是8月宁德时代（300750）控股的枧下窝矿因采矿证问题宣布停产。 12月中旬，江西省宜春市自然资源局公示拟注销27个锂云母矿采矿权，这一被誉为"亚洲锂都"的心脏地 带传来政策收紧的明确信号；紧接着，12月19日，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿进入首次环评信息公示阶段的消 息被市场解读为复产进度不及预期。几则消息叠加在情绪上形成关键冲击。 这一涨幅在价格敏感的新能源产业链中引发震动，意味着每吨碳酸锂当日增值超过一万元。 开年以来的市场走势更凸显了其强劲势头。受短期供需错位、政策指引等多重因素驱动，碳酸锂价格开 年呈持续上升态势。从1月5日的电池级碳酸锂均 ...

浙江2025年实现地区生产总值9.45万亿元，同比增长5.5%，增速高于全国平均水平0.5个百分点。按经 济总量排名，浙江位于全国第四，居于山东之后。距离十万亿门槛仅一步之遥的浙江，有望在"十五 五"期间成为全国第四个"十万亿大省"。 上海2025年实现地区生产总值5.67万亿元，同比增长5.4%，稳居全国城市首位。早在2024年，上海便率 先成为中国首个GDP超5万亿元的城市。尤为亮眼的是，上海的经济增速还在过去三年实现了不断攀升 的"三级跳"：2023年增速低于全国0.2个百分点，2024年追平全国平均增速，2025年反超全国平均增速 0.4个百分点。 2025年，安徽实现地区生产总值5.30万亿元，同比增长5.5%，与浙江并列长三角最高增速。在省级GDP 层面，自2009年跻身"万亿元俱乐部"以来，安徽经济总量始终保持"加速跑"态势，十多年内已连续迈过 4个万亿大关：2014年突破2万亿元、2018年突破3万亿元、2021年突破4万亿元，2024年更是以5.06万亿 元的经济总量首次跨上5万亿台阶。 新华财经上海1月30日电 （谷青竹） 随着江苏省统计局28日发布2025年全省国民经济运行情况，长三角 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 1 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2026-01-29 | 2026-01-28 | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 164820 | 166280 | -1460 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 162140 | 166000 | -3860 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 2168 | 2190 | -22 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 3305 | 3330 | -25 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 5125 | 5165 | -40 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 15700 | 159 ...

预增公司还集中于改性塑料、民爆、钾肥、化学制剂等板块。 "去年，化工行业产能扩张接近尾声，需求端迎来修复，叠加原料成本上涨以及部分化工产品价格反 弹，一定程度上推动行业景气度回暖。"陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司高级投资顾问朱华雷说。 更值得一提的是，2025年以来，全球锂电市场迎来强劲复苏态势，动力电池、储能电池需求持续爆发， 带动产业链上下游企业经营业绩改善。天赐材料、盐湖股份、藏格矿业等十余家锂电上市公司已发布 2025年度业绩预增公告，行业景气度显著回升。 与之形成对比的是，近十家光伏龙头企业发布的2025年业绩预告显示，光伏行业遭遇财务寒冬，全产业 链陷入亏损困局。 此外，多家氯碱上市企业陆续披露2025年业绩预减预告。聚氯乙烯价格在2025年持续下滑成为拖累业绩 的主要原因。 中化新网讯 A股上市公司2025年年报业绩预告目前正进入加速披露期。万得(Wind)数据显示，截至1月 28日，已有1224家A股上市公司发布业绩预告。其中，石油和化工企业180家，按业绩预告类型来看， 业绩预喜公司124家；业绩预忧公司56家，显示行业景气度缓慢回暖。 2025年，中国经济在压力中稳步前行，经济总量首次突破1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding the inclusion of 14 new futures and options products for foreign traders marks a significant step in the opening of China's futures market, enhancing its international influence and pricing power [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Market Expansion - The CSRC has added 14 new futures and options products, increasing the total number of designated products for foreign traders to 38 [1]. - The newly included products focus on sectors where China has a strong consumption market or complete industrial chain advantages, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy materials [2]. - The inclusion of nickel futures and options is particularly noteworthy as it is the first directly open non-ferrous metal futures product, indicating a key step in the internationalization of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2][3]. Group 2: Nickel Futures and Options - Nickel is a critical strategic material for emerging industries, and China, being the largest consumer and importer of nickel, provides a solid foundation for the futures market's opening [2]. - The opening of the nickel futures and options market is expected to enhance risk management capabilities for the non-ferrous metal industry and attract more participants for price formation and risk management [2]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Collaboration - The newly added products in the chemical sector include core polyester industry futures and options, which are essential for China's leading position in the global polyester industry [4][5]. - By 2025, China's polyester production capacity is projected to reach 89.035 million tons, accounting for 60% to 70% of the global total, indicating a robust market structure [4]. - The internationalization of the polyester sector is expected to improve the global pricing system and meet the diverse risk management needs of domestic and foreign enterprises [5]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Futures - The inclusion of lithium carbonate futures and options in the designated products is significant for the lithium battery industry, which is crucial for energy storage and electric vehicles [6][7]. - The introduction of these products is anticipated to provide transparent pricing and enhance China's influence in international lithium resource trade [6]. - The ability for domestic and foreign enterprises to engage in futures trading will facilitate risk management and stabilize operational profits amid price volatility [7].