特朗普宣布协议后不久，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽良生发文，对"所有相关人员表示由衷感谢"，并附 上"任务完成"的标签。日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，"我们保护了需要保护的东西，我们能够 达成对两国都有利的协议。" 日本首相石破茂称，与美国就向美方日本征收15%的关税达成一致。日美双方就通过日本企业在半导 体、钢铁、造船、能源、汽车等领域的投资，加强与美方供应链合作、保障经济安全，达成一致。石破 茂表示，在日本现行的大米"最低准入制度"下，增加从美国进口大米的比例。此举不会牺牲日本农业。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周三（7月23日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3421.86美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报 3423.40美元/盎司，跌幅0.23%，最高上探3438.54美元/盎司，最低触及3421.39美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看跌走势。 今日周三（7月23日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3421.86美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报3423.40美 元/盎司，跌幅0.23%，最高上探3438.54美元/盎司，最低触及3421.39美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 上午 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan and the United States have reached an agreement on tariffs, with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese goods and increasing rice imports from the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tariff Agreement - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, which includes a 12.5% tariff on automobiles, combining with a previous 2.5% tariff for a total of 15% [1] - The steel and aluminum tariffs will remain at the current rate of 50% [1] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - Japan and the U.S. have agreed to enhance supply chain cooperation and economic security through investments by Japanese companies in sectors such as semiconductors, steel, shipbuilding, energy, and automobiles [1] - Japan will increase the proportion of U.S. rice imports under its current minimum access system, ensuring that this will not harm Japanese agriculture [1] Group 3: Trade Relations Context - Japan is a major trading partner of the U.S., and previous trade tensions have arisen over trade deficits, exchange rates, and automobile market access [1] - The recent agreement follows a letter from former President Trump announcing a significant increase in tariffs on nearly all Japanese goods starting August 1 [1]

Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) has successfully concluded, showcasing China's commitment to global supply chain stability and international cooperation [2] - The event has seen significant upgrades compared to previous editions, with increased international participation, enhanced connectivity, and a higher number of returning exhibitors [2] International Participation - The proportion of overseas exhibitors at the Chain Expo has increased to 35%, up from 32% in the previous edition, marking a 9 percentage point rise [3] - Over 65% of the participating companies are from the Fortune Global 500 and industry leaders, with exhibitors coming from 75 countries and regions, up from 55 in the first edition [3] - Notable international organizations, including the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Intellectual Property Organization, participated in the event, highlighting its global appeal [3] Industry Collaboration - The Chain Expo serves as a platform for global chemical companies to showcase innovative technologies and products, with companies like Wacker and Honeywell presenting advancements in electric vehicle components and energy management solutions [3] - The event emphasizes long-term cooperation over immediate sales, facilitating connections among supply chain participants [5] - Major companies, including Apple and Siemens, showcased their collaborative efforts and technological advancements in manufacturing and sustainability [5] Emerging Markets Engagement - Companies from Belt and Road Initiative countries actively participated, with delegations from Serbia, Thailand, and several African nations attending [4] - Collaborative agreements were signed between companies from Kyrgyzstan and Chinese firms during the expo, indicating a focus on renewable energy partnerships [4] Future Outlook - The Chain Expo has established a foreign exhibitor alliance to enhance cooperation and service for international businesses, aiming to create a continuous platform for engagement [6] - A significant number of companies, including Honeywell and Siemens, have already signed up for the next edition of the expo, indicating strong demand and interest in future participation [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Each report presents data and analysis on different futures markets, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping, and a trading calendar, without a unified core view. 3. Summary by Report Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IF, IH, IC, and IM Futures**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is 37.60% with a change of - 9.16 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Provides cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing for the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of TS, TF, and TL Treasury bond futures [2]. - **Inter - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) for different Treasury bond futures, along with their changes and percentiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Reports domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver on July 22 and 21. For example, the AU2510 contract rose 0.40% to 784.84 yuan/gram on July 22 [3]. - **Basis, Ratios, Yields, and Inventories**: Provides basis values, ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver), yields of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and inventory data for precious metals, along with their changes [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: Gives spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping prices and various container shipping indexes (e.g., SCFIS, SCFI), along with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Presents futures prices and basis values for container shipping futures contracts, along with their changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on shipping capacity supply, port performance, export volume, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [5]. Trading Calendar - **Overseas and Domestic Data/Information**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicators and financial events to be released on July 23, including time, data source, and relevant details [6].

Report Overview - Date: July 23, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Content: Morning report on the black series of commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro expectations, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Driven by macro sentiment, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Boosted by the macro market, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][11] - Coke: The second round of price increases has been implemented, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Coking coal: The expected supply policy constraints have been strengthened, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption has recovered, showing a stable and volatile trend [2][20] - Logs: Showing a fluctuating and repeated trend [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 1.73% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 43,544 lots. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 14 yuan/ton for Jumbuck (61%) [4] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4] - **Trend strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 3.12%. The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,477 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 2.84%. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 80 yuan/ton for hot-rolled coil in Tianjin [7] - **Macro and industry news**: In June, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel [7][9] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree [11] - **Macro and industry news**: On July 22, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions increased. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal increased significantly. The spot price of coke in Rizhao Port increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some coking coal varieties also increased [15] - **Trend strength**: 1 for both coke and coking coal [17] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental data**: The ZC2507 contract of thermal coal had no trading volume. The prices of southern port and domestic origin coal are provided. The long and short positions of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange did not change [20][21] - **Trend strength**: 0 [22] Logs - **Fundamental data**: The prices of log futures contracts showed fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of some wood squares [24] - **Macro and industry news**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [26] - **Trend strength**: 0 [26]

Core Points - The Trump administration has announced a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports while U.S. exports to Indonesia will enjoy zero tariffs and non-tariff barriers [1][4] - Indonesia will eliminate tariffs on approximately 99% of U.S. industrial and agricultural products, and will also remove restrictions on key mineral exports to the U.S. [2][3] - The agreement is expected to create at least $50 billion in new market access for U.S. goods [1] Group 1 - Indonesia will cancel all tariffs on over 99% of trade volume with the U.S. and will abandon plans to impose tariffs on data flows affecting U.S. tech companies [2][3] - The U.S. will set a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, which is lower than the previously threatened 32% [4][5] - The agreement includes commitments from Indonesia to accept U.S. automotive safety standards, which will facilitate the entry of U.S. cars into the Indonesian market [2][3] Group 2 - The trade agreement encompasses various sectors, including digital trade, services, and investment, with Indonesia promising certainty for the transfer of personal data to the U.S. and enhanced intellectual property protection [6] - Indonesia has committed to purchasing $15 billion worth of U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [6][8] - The U.S. exported approximately $10.2 billion worth of goods to Indonesia in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while imports from Indonesia were about $28.1 billion, reflecting a 4.8% increase [5]

Group 1 - The total profit of Yunnan state-owned enterprises reached 5.611 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.06%, with three expenses reduced by 8.86% year-on-year, indicating continuous improvement in operational efficiency [1] - In 2024, the total assets of 21 Yunnan state-owned enterprises amounted to 3.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.33%, while net assets increased by 9.41% to 948.426 billion yuan, and total revenue reached 663.27 billion yuan with a profit of 3.432 billion yuan [1] - Yunnan state-owned enterprises invested over 2.9 billion yuan in green environmental governance in 2024, added three national-level "green factories," and saw strategic emerging industries like photovoltaic wind power and new materials account for 12.65% of revenue, with an additional 1.97 million kilowatts of wind and solar capacity installed [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Yunnan state-owned enterprises created over 6,000 new jobs, bringing total employment to 217,000, which in turn supported over 200,000 jobs in the society [2] - The enterprises completed a national fertilizer commercial reserve of 950,000 tons and supplied 16 million tons of thermal coal, providing over 1 billion yuan in benefits to downstream industries [2] - Cumulative green credit investment reached 15.3 billion yuan, injecting "vitality" into the real economy [2] Group 3 - In 2024, Yunnan state-owned enterprises paid 26.027 billion yuan in taxes and fees, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.52% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Zhongyin New Opportunities Mixed A (002057) reported a profit of 10.82 thousand yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0086 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 0.72% during the period [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's scale was 1,446.05 thousand yuan [15]. - The fund's unit net value as of July 21 was 1.201 yuan [3]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 0.80%, ranking 130 out of 142 comparable funds [4]. - 6-month net value growth rate: 0.48%, ranking 130 out of 142 comparable funds [4]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 1.59%, ranking 139 out of 142 comparable funds [4]. - 3-year net value growth rate: 3.36%, ranking 96 out of 142 comparable funds [4]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintained a low equity position during Q2, focusing on sectors such as banking, public utilities, energy, and non-bank financials [4]. - The strategy included increasing exposure to the banking sector, particularly high-dividend and low-valuation banks, while slightly reducing holdings in the energy sector and lowering allocations in the operator and automotive sectors [4]. - Fixed income investments primarily included financial bonds and convertible bonds, with an increased duration to capitalize on bond market opportunities [4]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was -0.3497, ranking 118 out of 142 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 3.17%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2020 at 4.64% [11]. Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's top ten holdings included: - Nanjing Bank - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Yangtze Power - Ping An Insurance - Shanghai Bank - China Construction Bank - Sinopec - Pudong Development Bank - China International Capital Corporation - Jiangsu Bank [19].

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with asphalt and cement dispatch rates at historical lows, and funding availability on construction sites lower than in 2024[13] - Industrial production shows a slight decline in chemical chain operating rates, while automotive steel tire operating rates have increased, indicating overall industrial activity remains at a historical high[23] - Demand in construction is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and building materials below historical levels[31] Price Trends - International commodity prices have seen a rebound in oil and gold, while non-ferrous metal prices have declined[38] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a strong performance, with the Nanhua Composite Index showing a rebound, particularly in the black series and construction materials like asphalt and cement[40] - Agricultural product prices, including pork, have shown signs of recovery in recent weeks[48] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in major cities have decreased significantly, with a 51% drop in average transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 35% compared to 2023[61] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -18%, -1%, and +8% respectively[65] Export Performance - Port container throughput increased by 3.9% year-on-year before July 20, with export growth projected at approximately +1.5%[70] - The Shanghai container ship loading index suggests a potential export growth of around +4%[70] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 and DR007 both at 1.51% as of July 18[83] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 657 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[86]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on July 22, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Different commodities in the black series have different trends: iron ore shows a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese maintain strong - side oscillations due to persistent market sentiment; coke and coking coal are oscillating strongly; thermal coal stabilizes with oscillating as daily consumption recovers; logs oscillate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton with a 3.06% increase. The open - interest decreased by 29,220 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore all increased. Some basis and spreads showed minor changes [4]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; for hot - rolled coils HC2510, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton with a 2.20% increase. Spot prices in different regions increased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - **News**: In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries. Steel production and inventory data in July showed certain changes [8][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia and silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia both increased by 50 yuan/ton. Some basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [14]. - **News**: On July 21, prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions increased. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined. In June, the national manganese ore import volume decreased compared to May but increased compared to the same period last year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Oscillating strongly [2][18][19]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton with an 8.64% increase; for coke J2509, the closing price was 1,603 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton with a 5.60% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions had minor changes, and some basis and spreads changed significantly [19]. - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index on July 21 were released. Regarding the open - interest, for coking coal JM2509, long - position decreased by 8,626 lots and short - position decreased by 12,469 lots; for coke J2509, long - position increased by 358 lots and short - position increased by 74 lots [19][20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [21]. Thermal Coal - **Trend**: Stabilizing with oscillating as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic thermal coal origin quotes were provided. Regarding the open - interest, both long - position and short - position of the ZC2507 contract decreased by 0 lots [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different log contracts showed certain changes. Spot prices of various log products remained stable [26]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28].