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国投期货综合晨报-20250825
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:54
gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 上周原油市场上涨,布伦特10合约涨2.51%,SC10合约涨1.13%。特朗普分别与普京和泽连斯基会 谈后,俄乌和平协议的推动未如市场此前预期的顺利,8月以来乌克兰再次顿繁袭击俄罗斯炼厂,21 日夜间俄罗斯友谊输油管再次遭到破坏,导致向匈牙利和斯洛伐克供油至少中断5天,市场此前定价 的俄乌地缘缓和走向出现修正。此前我们谈到海外原油期货及期权净多持仓已达区间低位,短期地 缘风险仍有不确定性,建议继续持有虚值期权双买策略避险,待波动率放大后再个入中期空单。 (责金属) 周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话表示就业下行风险正在上升,风险平衡变化可能 要求调整政策立场。讲话后美元跳水抹去一周涨幅,贵金属短线跳涨,美联储9月降息基本板上钉 钉。本周继续关注俄乌和平谈判进展,国际金银处于震荡区间之中,上方仍存关键阻力位。 【铜】 上周五铜价短线拉高,伦铜收在9800美元。杰克逊霍尔年会鲍威尔态度转鸽,谨慎暗示更关注劳动 力市场风险,9月中旬降息概率极大,美元指数下滑,带动贵金属及风险资产涨势。沪铜夜盘突破 7.9万,暂时 ...
研究所晨会观点精萃:美联储主席释放降息信号,全球风险偏好大幅升温-20250825
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 04:04
商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号:F0256916 投资咨询证号:Z0000671 电话:021-68756925 邮箱:jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号:F03092124 投资咨询证号:Z0018827 电话:021-68758786 邮箱:mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号:F3033924 投资咨询证号:Z0013026 电话:021-68751490 邮箱:Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号:F03091165 投资咨询证号:Z0019876 联系电话:021-58731316 邮箱:liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号:F03089928 投资咨询证号:Z0019740 电话:021-68757092 邮箱:wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号:F3077183 投资咨询证号:Z0016121 电话:021-68757092 邮箱:fengb@qh168.com. ...
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250825
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 02:19
能源化工日报 2025-08-25 原油 2025/08/25 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面:截至上周五,WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.29 美元,涨幅 0.46%,报 63.77 美元;布伦 特主力原油期货收涨 0.12 美元,涨幅 0.18%,报 67.79 美元;INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.30 元, 涨幅 0.47%,报 487 元。 数据方面:欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉,汽油库存环比去库 0.03 百万桶至 8.73 百万桶,环比去 库 0.29%;柴油库存环比累库 1.27 百万桶至 15.16 百万桶,环比累库 9.13%;燃料油库存环 比去库 0.11 百万桶至 6.64 百万桶,环比去库 1.60%;石脑油环比去库 0.75 百万桶至 4.97 百 万桶,环比去库 13.07%;航空煤油环比累库 0.17 百万桶至 7.45 百万桶,环比累库 2.27%; 总体成品油环比累库 0.55 百万桶至 42.95 百万桶,环比累库 1.31%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号:F03097315 交易咨询号:Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认 ...
Jackson Hole央行年会分析
2025-08-24 14:47
Jackson Hole 央行年会分析 20250824 摘要 2025 年 Q1 的 QCEW 校准数据将初步校准非农就业人数,参考 2024 年 BLS 的类似操作,非农就业人数可能面临向下修正,需关注修正幅度 对市场的影响。 9 月将公布 PPI 和 CPI 数据,揭示关税对美国通胀的影响,以及商品和 服务价格变动,对判断美联储是否降息至关重要。零售销售数据也将同 步发布,用于预测三季度 GDP 表现。 美联储 FOMC 会议将决定是否降息及未来利率路径,需关注实际数值与 预期中位数之间的差异及偏离预期幅度,以此判断劳动力市场状况及对 市场的影响。 历史数据显示,8 月和 9 月通常是波动率较高、美股表现较差的月份, 需警惕美元流动性收紧或金融条件恶化等因素对美股的负面影响。 当前降息预期的不确定性较大,非农就业和通胀数据质量恶化且波动较 大,新任劳工部长的数据发布也存在变数,使得降息预期成为关注焦点。 若非农就业数据不及预期,通胀数据超出预期,美联储可能采取"鹰派 降息",即象征性降息但维持整体金融环境紧张,可能引发美元指数和 美国国债收益率上升。 美联储依赖"incoming data"策略面临数据 ...
橡胶甲醇原油:多空因素博弈,能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:35
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 22 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 多空因素博弈 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名:陈栋 橡胶:本周五国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓,震荡偏弱, 小幅收低的走势,盘中期价重心小幅下移至 15625 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.95%至 15625 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 955 元/吨。随着前期利多因素消化,在国内轮胎库存回升,外销增速放缓 的不利影响下,预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走 势。 甲醇:本周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓,震荡偏弱, 略微收低的走势,期价最高上涨至 2425 元/吨一线,最低下探至 2398 元/吨,收盘时略微收低 0.58%至 2405 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 111 元/吨。随着前期利空因素消化,甲醇迎来超跌反弹的走势,不 过当前甲醇供需结构依然偏弱,预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持震荡整理的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业 ...
SC价差走强突破前高,库存骤降支撑油价震荡反弹
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 07:57
SC价差走强突破前高,库存骤降支撑油价震荡反弹 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差:2025年8月21日,SC原油主力合约大幅上涨1.68%至490.9 元/桶,突破近日震荡区间,WTI与Brent主力合约价格维持62.84美元/桶和 67.04美元/桶不变。SC与其他基准原油价差显著走强,SC-Brent价差从前 一日的0.21美元/桶扩大至1.35美元/桶(涨幅542.86%),SC-WTI价差亦从 4.41美元/桶攀升至5.55美元/桶,反映中国原油期货短期强势;Brent-WTI 价差则稳定于4.2美元/桶。SC近月与连3合约价差收窄,由-4.2元/桶修复 至-2.0元/桶,显示月间结构压力有所缓解。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端:美国原油出口回升至8-9月400万桶/日以上(年初以来最高),主 因国内炼厂提前进入维护期导致轻质原油过剩,叠加亚洲市场对美国原油 偏好增强(WTI较中东原油贴水)。此外,OPEC+加速解除220万桶/日自愿 减产的潜在风险仍压制市场情绪,需警惕供应放量压力。地缘方面,英国 对伊朗商业实体制裁或加剧伊朗原油出口受限风险,但对实际贸易流影响 有限。 ...
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250822
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 03:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts has converged, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 75%. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on the market. Domestically, the A - share market's risk appetite may have reached a short - term peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery. [2][3] - Most commodities are expected to show a volatile trend. Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile, waiting for Powell's speech. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and other metals are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina are expected to oscillate, and lithium carbonate is in a game - based volatile stage. Crude oil is expected to be weak after a short - term technical correction, and agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also expected to fluctuate. [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, a three - year high, with inflation pressure increasing. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have dampened the market's expectation of a September rate cut. The dollar has risen, and the US bond yield has increased. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market weakened after a high opening on Thursday, with the trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion. The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market has a chance to recover. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures on COMEX fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce, and silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce. The better - than - expected US PMI data and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on gold prices. The market is waiting for Powell's speech, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will remain volatile. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract maintained a volatile trend. The US manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but there are concerns about long - term demand after the tariff policy. The Fed's internal differences remain large, and the Codelco has lowered its copper production forecast. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20590 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased. The good performance of the US and European manufacturing PMIs has improved the overseas demand expectation. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the current range. [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 3124 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The supply is slightly increasing, and consumption is stable. It is expected that alumina will continue to show a weak - oscillating trend. [10] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on zinc prices. However, the decline in zinc prices has led to increased downstream purchases, and it is expected that zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. [11] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The inflow of delivery goods has led to a slight decline in inventory, and the inverted price difference between refined and scrap lead provides support for lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [12] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract showed a weak - oscillating trend. The supply of tin ore and scrap tin is tight, and the low LME inventory provides support, but consumption is weak. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [13] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is marginally loose, and the demand side has different performances. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. [14][15] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a game - based volatile stage. Although the spot market has improved, the supply increase may exceed the demand, and it is recommended to wait and see. [16][17] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost pressure of nickel iron has eased slightly, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. The cost of nickel sulfate is high, and the demand has resilience. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech. [18][19] 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil oscillated strongly. Geopolitical factors are heating up, and it is expected that oil prices will be weak after a short - term technical correction. [20] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract both declined. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The market expects the state reserve to release soybeans in November, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will oscillate in a range. [21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of August increased slightly, and Indonesia's inventory in June continued to decline. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust. [23][24] 3.15 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver on August 22, 2025. [26] 3.16 Industry Data Perspective - The document presents the data changes of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, gold, silver, and related products including steel, iron ore, and agricultural products from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including prices, inventories, and price differences. [27][32]
金融期货早评-20250822
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:44
金融期货早评 宏观:关注杰克逊霍尔年会 【市场资讯】1)鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔年会讲话前,美联储明年票委称 9 月可能不会降息, 今年票委对行动犹豫,此后两年期美债收益率接近三周高位;美联储主席候选人布拉德建 议激进:今年降息 100 基点,9 月首次行动。2)美国司法部施压开除美联储理事库克,特 朗普倾向她自动请辞。3)美国 8 月制造业 PMI 初值 53.3,意外创三年多新高,通胀压力 加剧;美国劳动力市场降温愈发明显,上周首次申请失业救济人数意外飙升 1.1 万,续请 人数升至四年高位。4)欧元区商业活动创 15 个月新高,制造业 PMI 冲上 50、结束三年收 缩,德国制造业强势复苏。5)美欧就贸易协定框架达成一致,美国重申对欧盟 15%关税上 限,称对欧盟汽车的关税可能几周内降低。 波动率较低,汇率的显著波动预计将在 9、10 月提升。在高度不确定的外部环境,叠加内 部弱复苏的背景下,美元兑人民币即期汇率短期内大概率在 7.15-7.23 运行。进一步来看, 若杰克逊霍尔会议无更多预期外的信息指引,7.20 下方大概率仍将是主要运行区间。 【风险提示】海外货币政策调整超预期、地缘政治冲突超预期、特朗普非 ...
宝城期货原油早报-20250822
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:23
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory - bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed slightly up 1.27% to 492.9 yuan/barrel on Thursday night and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Friday [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, even with increased production from OPEC+ countries. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous bearish sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed an oscillatory - bullish trend on Thursday night [5].
申银万国期货首席点评:“万亿用电+万亿成交”双破纪录背后的中国经济新韧性
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].