Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

薛鹤翔、汪洋（薛鹤翔系申银万国期货研究所所长、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） + 摘要 国内宏观：国内宏观经济在消费与产业政策领域呈现出鲜明特征。消费端，十一假期出行数据反映出旅游 市场复杂态势。出行节奏提前，但整体出行强度逊于五一假期，显示居民出行决策更趋理性，可能与假期 安排、天气等因素有关。在旅游结构上，传统景点热度部分回落，而特色旅游如"省际交界游""边境游"异 军突起，表明消费者对旅游体验的个性化需求增长，旅游市场正在向多元化、特色化转型。免签范围扩大 刺激出境游增长，也反映出国内居民对国际旅游需求的释放以及国家在旅游开放政策上的积极成效，这有 助于带动旅游消费及相关服务业发展。 国外宏观：国庆长假期间，美国9月ADP就业、服务业PMI弱于市场预期。9月ADP就业减少3.2万人，大幅 低于市场预期的新增5.1万人，年度基准调整对其构成了4.3万人的影响，但就业市场趋势仍为走弱；美国9 月ISM服务业PMI回落至50，其中商业活动、新订单指数分别回落至49.9、50.4。 贵金属：国庆期间黄金持续创历史新高并突破4000美元/盎司，整体上黄金正处于一个历史级别的长期牛之 中，核心驱动包括对美国债务可持续性 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2511 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 偏弱运行 | 避险情绪升温 原油偏弱运行 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-10-09 品种晨会纪要 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：国庆长假期间，美国联邦政府意外停摆，系统性风险发生，导致全球金融市场避险情绪 大幅升温，黄金期货走强，其他大宗商品普遍承压。同时，8 个 OPEC+产油国决定 11 月维持增产措 施，增产原油 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-10-09 原油延续动荡格局，化⼯以对冲套利为 主 原油价格在十一期间走势动荡，整体仍是震荡格局。最新月度产量陆 续公布，OPEC在9月产量环比增40万桶/日，美国7月原油产量继续创新 高，全球9月原油出口环比增210万桶/日。另一方面是地缘端的扰动仍然 存在，乌克兰没有停止袭击俄罗斯炼厂，普京表示，如果缺少俄罗斯原 油，油价将大幅上涨。10月8日美国石油协会公布，该国交割库库欣库存 单周下降120万桶也短期给油价带来支撑。鉴于成品油裂解价差的逐步走 弱，我们认为原油反弹空间有限。 板块逻辑： 十一长假期间，基础化工品价格变动较小。跌幅较大的品种有鹿特丹 的异构级MX，跌幅为3.14%；此外还有FOB美湾的苯乙烯，跌幅2.91%；欧 美的纯苯价格在长假期间略有反弹。PX长假期间跌幅不足1%。原油的动荡 和化工自身的低估值，导致产业链没有明确的趋势行情，因为尚未看到供 应有较大减量，即使是亏损较大的品种也仍然可能继续亏损下去。投资者 可以正套尝试参与大幅亏损的品种，例如苯乙烯。 原油：OPEC+延续增产，地缘仍有扰动 沥青 ...

能源化工日报 2025-10-09 能源化工组 张正华 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 橡胶分析师 国庆期间外围市场震荡运行，截至 10 月 8 日下午 3 点，WTI 原油主力合约报价$62.33/桶；Brent 原油主力合约报价$65.89/桶。行业层面，美国 API 行业数据显示库欣库存维持去库 115 万桶， 整体库存情况仍处良性。OPEC 会议于 10 月 5 日结束，开会途中，相关能源部官员表态可能增 产 45 万桶/日，但最终结果仍然为 13.7 万桶/日，会议结果为"原则性低速增产"。 【策略观点】 zhangzh@wkqh.cn OPEC 在此次会议中继续体现出挺价意愿略微大于份额意愿的犹豫态度，虽然整体库存水平表现 良性，但 OPEC 保持微增计划将持续压制油价上方空间。预计原油短期仍然保持震荡走势。 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/10/09 甲醇 【行情资讯】 过节期间海外原油先跌后涨，整体小幅下跌，其他 ...

Group 1: Global Market Trends - Global capital markets are experiencing a strong rally, with technology and AI sectors leading the charge. Major US indices reached record closing highs, driven by significant gains in AI chip companies like Nvidia and AMD [2] - The US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have risen, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, contributing to a weaker US dollar and benefiting emerging market currencies [6] - OPEC+ announced a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day, which led to initial oil price gains but was followed by concerns over potential oversupply, causing prices to fluctuate [4][18] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - The domestic consumption market is showing strong recovery, particularly in the cultural tourism and new energy vehicle sectors, supported by consumer policies and improved living standards [7][10] - The introduction of the "mortgage transfer" policy has facilitated over 560,000 transactions, streamlining the real estate process and potentially boosting the second-hand housing market [15] - Tesla reported a record delivery of 497,000 vehicles in Q3, but its stock price fell over 5%, reflecting market concerns about slowing growth in the electric vehicle sector [13][17] Group 3: Political and Economic Factors - The election of Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, may lead to continued dovish monetary policy, impacting the yen and benefiting Japanese exporters [9][11] - The US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, heightening market risk aversion and potentially undermining confidence in the US economic recovery [3]

夜幕低垂，财经频道上弹幕如雪片般飞舞："股市创新高，与我何干？工资何时能涨？""原油下跌，能否换来出行成本的些许降低？"没人期待确切的解答， 人们只盼着尽快度过这令人窒息的时刻，唯恐明日的新闻头条再次被"政府关门"、"联邦裁员"、"市场暴跌"等字眼所占据。 与此同时，华盛顿国会山下，抗议者举着标语牌，表达着对政府关门的不满。媒体主播则一脸严肃地警告说："这绝非儿戏，它可能会影响到基层公务员的 生计。" 然而，更多人关心的是，下周的工资能否按时发放，医保卡是否还能正常使用。 回首过去几日，无数数据、人物、镜头交织缠绕，宛如一团凌乱的麻花，令人难以理清头绪。表面上看似风平浪静，实则暗流涌动，危机四伏。决策者们似 乎在理性地权衡利弊，然而市场情绪却对此毫不买账。谁也无法预知明日将会发生什么，人们只能在下一个凌晨的报价到来之前，在又一轮不知所措的自我 追问中煎熬。 10月3日凌晨，全球金融市场笼罩在一片阴霾之中。分析师在朋友圈里发出感慨："金价回调不足为虑，关键在于宏观环境，全球目光都聚焦于美联储何时松 口。"有人立刻回复道："与其紧盯美联储，不如攥紧自己手中的真金白银。"这番对话，如同无数家庭厨房里的争论，理性与情 ...

Market Reactions - The gold market experienced a significant drop, falling below the critical level of $3,820 per ounce, causing shock among traders [1] - Silver also declined, with spot silver dropping over 2% in a single day, leading to substantial financial losses for investors [1] - The U.S. stock market initially opened strong, reaching new highs, but reversed course, mirroring the movements of gold and silver [1] Economic Concerns - The U.S. government shutdown raised concerns about the economic outlook, with important economic data, such as the September non-farm payroll report, being delayed [1] - Market sentiment shifted towards expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weak private sector employment and the government shutdown [3] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its October meeting, with a possibility of another cut in December [5] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices fell below $61 per barrel, marking a four-month low, with concerns that OPEC+ may accelerate the restoration of idle production capacity, leading to oversupply [5] - The decline in oil prices reflects broader worries about economic performance and demand [5] Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index, previously buoyed by rising valuations in companies like OpenAI, has shown signs of cooling off, with Tesla's stock price dropping despite exceeding quarterly delivery expectations [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed a slight decline of 0.21%, reflecting the overall market volatility [7]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling below $3820 per ounce after reaching a high of $3896 per ounce, marking a decline of approximately $80 within the day [1][2] - Silver prices also saw a decline, dropping over 2% to $46 per ounce after previously exceeding $48 per ounce [1] - The U.S. stock market mirrored the fluctuations in gold prices, with the S&P 500 index opening at a record high before turning negative [4] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.21%, closing at 46344.94, after reaching a high of 46580.05 [5][6] - The Nasdaq Composite Index showed a slight increase of 0.07%, reaching 22770.08, with a peak of 22900.60 during the trading session [7] - The oil market faced a fourth consecutive day of decline, with WTI crude oil prices dropping below $61 per barrel, hitting a four-month low due to concerns over oversupply [12] Group 3 - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of the month, with an 80% probability of another cut in December, reflecting concerns over labor market strength [13] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a "data blackout," affecting the release of key economic reports, including the non-farm payroll report [10] - Chinese assets showed resilience, with the Chinese concept stock index rising approximately 1% [13]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling below $3820 per ounce after reaching a high of $3896 per ounce, marking a decline of about $80 within the day [1] - Silver prices also saw a decline, dropping over 2% to $46 per ounce after previously exceeding $48 per ounce [1] - The S&P 500 index opened at a record high but subsequently turned negative, reflecting a similar trend to gold prices [3] Group 2 - The Nasdaq index reached a new high of 22900.60 but faced volatility, with a trading volume of 4.91 billion shares [5] - The market sentiment was affected by the U.S. government shutdown, with President Trump considering significant federal employee layoffs, which could impact risk appetite [8] - Tesla's stock price fell nearly 3% despite reporting better-than-expected quarterly deliveries, indicating market concerns about the electric vehicle sector entering a downturn [8] Group 3 - WTI crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive day, dropping below $61 per barrel due to concerns over OPEC+ potentially increasing idle production capacity and a global supply surplus [11] - Market expectations indicate a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the month, with an 80% chance of another cut in December [12] - Chinese stocks showed a positive trend, with the Chinese concept stock index rising approximately 1% [12]