Group 1: Global Market Overview - The ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, with a 2.12% increase observed during the week of March 20-27, 2026[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.44%, while the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.67%[3] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with inflation expectations rising, exacerbating stagflation risks and delaying interest rate cuts[3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - As of March 27, 2026, the U.S. stock market fear index recorded 10.22, indicating a relatively pessimistic sentiment compared to historical lows[3] - The AAII investor sentiment index was at 49.79% on March 26, 2026, up 25.3% from pre-conflict levels but down 15.5% from the 2025 tariff period[3] - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at an 85.9% historical percentile, lower than the KOSPI200 (91.3%) and CAC40 (93.2%), but higher than the S&P 500 (80.8%)[54] Group 3: Risk Asset Performance - The implied volatility for gold, aluminum, and U.S. stocks is at historical high percentiles of 98.6%, 87.7%, and 96.2% respectively, indicating heightened market uncertainty[41][46] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 have dropped to the 6th percentile, while the NASDAQ's risk-adjusted returns fell to the 5th percentile as of March 27, 2026[51] - The Shanghai Composite's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 39% to 42% during the same period[51] Group 4: Capital Flows - As of March 25, 2026, foreign capital continued to flow into the Chinese stock market, with a net inflow of $14.3 billion, while domestic capital saw a net outflow of $6.8 billion[3] - U.S. equity markets experienced a significant outflow of $270.2 billion, while fixed income funds saw an inflow of $51 billion during the same week[3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of geopolitical conflicts, particularly the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, on global oil prices and economic structures. It highlights the shifting dynamics in the energy sector and the broader implications for financial markets and asset pricing. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices** The US-Iran conflict is expected to systematically elevate global oil price levels, with supply constraints (e.g., the Strait of Hormuz accounting for 20% of global oil demand) becoming a key factor beyond economic growth [1][3][4]. 2. **Shift in Asset Pricing Logic** The asset pricing logic has shifted from short-term cycles to a more fragmented global structure, with gold prices driven by the "weaponization of the dollar" rather than traditional inflation metrics [1][5]. 3. **New Stagflation Dynamics** The traditional "recession trade" logic is no longer applicable, as the world enters a new stagflation characterized by declining national credit and competitiveness, particularly in Europe and Japan due to energy and supply chain vulnerabilities [1][10]. 4. **Dollar Index and Currency Weakness** The strength of the dollar index is primarily due to the weakness of the euro and yen, rather than an absolute strengthening of the dollar's credit. The true value of the dollar should be assessed against gold and the yuan [1][9]. 5. **Long-term Effects of High Oil Prices** Historical analysis shows that high oil price levels benefit resource-exporting countries and those with strong supply chain control. The current geopolitical tensions may lead to a systematic bearish outlook on the dollar if US influence in the Middle East diminishes [1][3]. 6. **Changes in Major Asset Classes** Post-Russia-Ukraine conflict, the pricing logic for gold, copper, and major developed countries' long-term bond yields has changed, reflecting deeper global fragmentation. Gold prices are influenced by the dollar's role as a financial sanction tool, while copper prices benefit from supply chain shifts towards China [5][6]. 7. **Rising Long-term Bond Yields** Despite expectations of economic recession leading to lower bond yields, long-term yields in the US, Europe, and Japan have risen, indicating structural changes in asset pricing due to energy and monetary system fragmentation [6][10]. 8. **Historical Context of Oil Price Centers** The evolution of global economic structures can be analyzed through the lens of oil price centers, with significant shifts occurring during the 1970s, 1980s, and the early 2000s, impacting the fortunes of various countries [7][8]. 9. **Future Asset Pricing Framework** The traditional recession trading logic is outdated; a new framework is needed that considers the interplay between a country's bonds and currency as indicators of national strength. The current geopolitical landscape suggests that Western economies, particularly Europe and Japan, face significant challenges [10]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes that the current geopolitical conflicts may lead to a prolonged period of high oil prices, which could have more severe implications than previous conflicts, potentially reshaping global economic and political landscapes [4][9]. - The analysis suggests that the US stock market, particularly the tech sector, may face increased volatility due to rising global oil prices and liquidity pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions [9].

Report Summary - **Report Date**: March 30, 2026 - **Research Institute**: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekend market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts and policy games. Energy and precious metals fluctuated violently. The escalation of the Middle East situation pushed up the risk premium of crude oil, and the price of domestic refined gold jewelry approached 1,400 yuan/gram. Macro - policies showed differentiation: overseas, the Fed's dot - plot implied only one interest - rate cut in 2026, which suppressed risk assets; domestically, the central bank maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing the resilience of the industrial fundamentals [1]. - In 2026 Q1, the global capital market was characterized by global differentiation, technology re - evaluation, and policy disturbances. In Q2, as the earnings reports are released, the market logic will shift from "speculating on expectations" to "looking at performance realization" [4][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose 2.67%. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows no sign of stopping. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal and put forward strict conditions. The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in shock consolidation. The current adjustment is driven by the downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and the de - dollarization process [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day, the stock index opened low and closed high. In Q2, the market logic will change, and high - valuation growth stocks face pressure, while low - valuation, high - dividend, and cash - flow - stable assets have stronger defensive properties [4][11]. Daily News Focus - **International News**: US President Trump claimed to control the Strait of Hormuz, and Vice - President Vance said the US would withdraw from Iran after completing its goals and that the rise in oil prices was a short - term reaction [6]. - **Domestic News**: On the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the Boao Forum for Asia, Hainan Free Trade Port made its first global appearance after the whole - island customs closure [7]. - **Industry News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with significant growth in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [8][9]. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 fell 1.67%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.79%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.70%, the US dollar index rose 0.26%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 8.14%, and precious metals such as London gold and silver also rose [10]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: The stock index has the same situation as mentioned before. Treasury bonds have mixed performance. The central bank's operations keep the capital market relatively stable, but long - term treasury bond futures prices may face pressure due to factors such as the Middle East situation and inflation expectations [11][12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical**: Methanol night - session rose 4.29%, with an increase in the operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and a decrease in coastal inventories. Rubber is in the low - production season, with new supply pressure expected, but the price is supported by the strong synthetic rubber. Polyolefins rebounded, and attention should be paid to the conflict situation and device operation. Glass and soda ash futures are weak, with high inventories and supply - demand imbalances [15][16][17][19]. - **Metals**: Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, and the US dollar. Aluminum prices may rise due to supply risks caused by the Middle East conflict [21][22][23]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market was weak on Friday night, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the recovery of rigid demand and the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the coal market [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by the Brazilian soybean harvest and the expected increase in US soybean exports. Oils are expected to be in high - level shock due to bio - fuel policies and oil price risks. The pig price is expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand. Sugar is affected by the Middle East situation and ethanol prices. Cotton is expected to be in shock in the short - term and supply may be tight in the long - term [26][27][28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European route fell on Friday. The price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades in the Platts market before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, consider that it already includes the current geopolitical premium, suggest taking profits at high prices and widening the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, expect high production in the first quarter. With supply and demand both strong, suggest short - selling at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. - For rubber, the market is volatile. Suggest flexible trading, gradually taking profits on butadiene rubber, and holding the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [10][13]. - For PVC, in the short term, the price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to geopolitical conflicts, suggest staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired and the market is volatile [20]. - For polyethylene, after the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline, and it will enter a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 12.40 yuan/barrel, or 1.70%, to 740.80 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 118.00 yuan/ton, or 2.72%, to 4464.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 140.00 yuan/ton, or 2.79%, to 5157.00 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategic allocation, widen the spread of different oil grades, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 130.00 yuan/ton, reported at 3296 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 89 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, etc. remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1877 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices, and there may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined, RU rebounded. Butadiene was strong. Butadiene rubber production lines had heavy losses and reduced production. The price had room for repair. The overall market changed rapidly [10]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly, gradually take profits on butadiene rubber, and hold the position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 35 yuan to 5615 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5450 (- 50) yuan/ton. The basis was - 165 (- 15) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 110 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.9%, with an increase of 0.8%. Downstream demand was gradually recovering [15]. - **Strategy**: The price may rise before the Iran issue is resolved, but be cautious of short - term large increases [16][17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged. The basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the supply was relatively abundant [19]. - **Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines due to geopolitical impacts and market volatility [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 8868 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 268 yuan/ton, weakening by 101 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.57%, a decrease of 1.41%. The downstream average operating rate was 40%, an increase of 2.41% [22]. - **Strategy**: After the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increases, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 9313 yuan/ton, up 193 yuan/ton. The spot price was 9150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 163 yuan/ton, weakening by 143 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.65%, a decrease of 2.72%. The downstream average operating rate was 46.36%, an increase of 0.65% [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 142 yuan to 9916 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was - 42 (- 54) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84%, a decrease of 0.6%; the Asian load was 72.7%, a decrease of 2.1%. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. In March, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 2.8 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of February increased by 16 tons month - on - month [28]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline further, enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of short - term large increases [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 98 yuan to 6876 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 120 (+ 20) yuan. The PTA load was 81.8%, an increase of 1%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 tons. The processing fee on the disk rose 5 yuan to 371 yuan [31]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN may rise significantly due to geopolitical factors [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 221 yuan to 5279 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 146 (+ 81) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 65.8%, a decrease of 0.6%. The downstream load was 86.8%, a decrease of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 2.8 tons to 103.9 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports will decrease, and the port inventory will turn to de - stocking. However, be cautious of short - term large increases [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran-US conflict subsides, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts usually cause short - term emotional premiums in oil prices, and the risk premium will quickly be reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical futures market will generally follow the decline, but there will be structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to price drops, and the downstream processing sector will see improved profitability [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East usually lead to short - term emotional premiums in oil prices. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. - If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will disappear. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [3][4]. II. Trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, but there will be structural differentiation. - Direct oil - chemical varieties (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE) will see a weakening of cost support, and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythms - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties (such as coal - based olefins, methanol) have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to price drops, and a smaller decline compared to pure oil - chemical varieties. - The downstream processing sector (such as plastic and rubber products) will see a relief in cost pressure, an improvement in profitability, and smoother price transmission. - The speed of premium disappearance: The faster the conflict is resolved, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline. - Macroeconomic and supply - demand factors: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. IV. Technical analysis of various futures - **Stock index futures**: The market opened lower and closed higher today, with heavy trading volume at noon and finally closed with a mid -阳线. Technically, the 5 - minute adjustment is sufficient, and it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the early trading on Monday. It is recommended to go long on dips [8][9]. - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold has gradually stopped. Gold maintained a volatile trend throughout the day, and a bullish and volatile outlook is recommended for the future [12]. - **Iron ore**: The shipping from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills will resume production after the holiday, which may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, it is in a wide - range high - level shock, and the right - side signal still needs to wait [14][15]. - **Glass**: The daily melting has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The resumption of work of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday needs to be monitored. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock before the upper - level pressure is broken [17][18]. - **Methanol**: From the perspective of the industrial chain transmission mechanism, the current methanol price increase is "cost - driven". In the short term, downstream enterprises can digest cost pressure by raising prices, but if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as a high - level shock [19]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp mills are operating within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. Downstream paper mills' previously shut - down equipment has gradually resumed production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown a range - bound trend recently [21].

Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].

- The report focuses on the potential geopolitical tipping point and its impact on AI and new energy sectors[1] - The report discusses the potential for a rapid decline in oil prices if geopolitical tensions ease, which could boost high-risk technology sectors[1] - The report highlights the importance of AI and new energy sectors as they are less affected by geopolitical risks[1] - The report suggests that if geopolitical risks increase, the demand expectations for cyclical sectors will be significantly affected, making the independent prosperity logic of the technology sector relatively superior[13] - The report mentions the approval and listing of the first batch of off-market dual-innovation AI index funds, which may bring incremental capital inflows[13] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the market timing using price segmentation and micro-market structure timing[14][15] - The report includes a section on industry monitoring, focusing on financing and securities lending, with specific net inflow and outflow amounts for various industries[19] - The report presents the performance of BARRA style factors, showing significant changes in style preferences during the week[20][21] - The report concludes with a summary of the performance of fundamental factors, indicating a preference for growth over value and highlighting the excess advantages of assets with positive financial leverage and high earnings volatility[23]

Core Viewpoint - The current market focus is on geopolitical tensions and oil prices, but the actual market performance suggests a different direction, with a strong emphasis on AI hardware, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and minor metals leading into 2025 [3] Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The strongest trends in 2025 will be seen in AI hardware, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and minor metals, particularly from Q2 to Q3, with a focus on products closely related to computing power [3] - By Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, price increases will drive market strength, with significant price hikes in AI hardware components like optical fibers, storage, and M9 materials, leading to a bullish market [3] - The latter part of the period will see a shift in market dynamics, with a higher emphasis on price increases and a weakening of overarching narratives, indicating a potential retreat of major themes [3] Group 2: Emerging Themes and Opportunities - The market is currently in a phase of waiting for new main themes to emerge, as old themes have faded, with a focus on sectors like consumer healthcare that are showing positive marginal improvements [4] - Two leading themes in consumer healthcare, one related to a weight-loss probiotic and another concerning a drug in clinical trials, suggest that consumer healthcare may become a new main theme [4] - Historical patterns indicate that strong themes often emerge before new main themes or during the retreat of existing ones, with current themes potentially setting the stage for consumer healthcare to take the lead [4] Group 3: Market Behavior and Sentiment - If the market fails to identify a new main theme, it may experience chaotic behavior, oscillating between various sectors without clear direction [5] - The contrast between the market's performance in consumer healthcare and the focus on geopolitical issues raises questions about the potential for consumer healthcare to be the main theme in 2026 [5] - The ambiguity of the main theme's emergence requires participants to make strategic choices, as being correct in research is less critical than making the right decisions in positioning [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are highly volatile due to the Middle - East geopolitical situation. The supply is tight, and it is recommended to consider a bull call spread [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to be relatively strong with a certain de - stocking expectation, but short - term long positions are recommended due to large oil price fluctuations [31]. - The pulp market has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [58]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI's opening price was $100.51, closing price was $94.17, with a decline of 4.00%. Brent's opening price was $107.5, closing price was $101.92, with a decline of 2.38%. SC's opening price was 781.0 yuan/barrel, closing price was 740.8 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 4.24% [7]. - The US has adopted a strategy of talking while fighting in the Middle - East. The Strait of Hormuz transportation is interrupted, and many Middle - East oil - producing countries are forced to cut production, with a cumulative reduction of about 800,000 barrels per day. It is recommended to consider a bull call spread [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The US has announced a suspension of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, but continues to increase military deployment in the Middle - East. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked [8]. - After the news of the US - Iran dialogue was released, oil prices fluctuated greatly. Iran denied having any contact with the US [8]. - Many Middle - East oil - producing countries are forced to cut production. The US has lifted some oil sanctions, and IEA member countries are releasing reserves, but the effect on supply is limited [9]. Asphalt 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - For BU2606, the opening price was 4465 yuan/ton, closing price was 4532 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.68%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [30]. - The cost side supports the asphalt price. The supply is tight, and demand is improving. There is a de - stocking expectation, and short - term long positions are recommended [30][31]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The cost side is affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, and oil prices are volatile but the center is rising. Spot prices of asphalt are rising [32]. - The weekly loss of asphalt devices decreased by 45,000 tons. The overall start - up rate increased by 0.87 percentage points this week, but is expected to decline next week [33]. - The production of asphalt continues to be in a loss state. The demand is expected to be released steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly [34]. Pulp 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - As of Thursday, the 05 contract of pulp closed at 5156 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from last week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.47%. The prices of imported pulp in the spot market vary [57]. - The supply - demand contradiction in the pulp market still exists, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [58]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - The shipment volume of pulp from major pulp - producing countries in December showed different trends. The global chemical pulp shipment - to - capacity ratio was 97.75% in December [59]. - In February, China's pulp imports decreased. The inventory of pulp in major regions and ports increased in late March [58][62]. - The downstream market has insufficient terminal orders, and there is resistance to price increases of downstream base paper [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are doubts about the so - called US - Iran peace talks. The US is reported to be formulating a "fatal blow" military plan against Iran, and Iran believes the US negotiation stance is a "third deception" plan. Oil prices have risen again, the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations have resurfaced, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled significantly. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The short - term trading logic of the market focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the mixed geopolitical news in the Middle East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3][4] - For assets, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; government bonds fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; in the commodity sector, black metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; non - ferrous metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; energy and chemical products fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, doubts about the US - Iran peace talks, rising oil prices, resurgent Fed interest - rate hike expectations, strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation are better than expected in January - February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3] - Asset suggestions: short - term cautious wait - and - see for stock indices, government bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals; short - term cautious long - position for energy and chemical products. [3] 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, communication services, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market continued to decline significantly. The economy and inflation are better than expected from January to February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously in the short term. [4] 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, down 2.83%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 16841 yuan/kilogram, down 5.66%. Spot gold restarted its decline, and finally closed down 2.85% at 4377.95 US dollars/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 4.32% at 68.11 US dollars/ounce. Precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [5] 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly on Thursday, and the trading volume was low. The real demand improved marginally, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and the inventory decline continued to expand. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron output increased. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday, and the futures performance was relatively strong. There are rumors of setbacks in iron ore negotiations. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the supply has increased. It is expected that the room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the energy price weakens. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded on Thursday, and the futures continued to fluctuate. The alloy prices were supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. The operating rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the situation in April. It is advisable to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a slightly bullish and fluctuating mindset. [8] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper spot TC is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. The by - product income makes up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is high. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, and the social inventory has decreased significantly. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, due to Iran's opposition to the US proposal, the risk appetite decreased, but the aluminum price was supported. The domestic primary aluminum production increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum import remains high, and the supply pressure still exists. [9] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 21.44 tons on Thursday, but it is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in some regions have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The demand is not optimistic. [9][10] - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead increased significantly from January to February. The production of primary lead and secondary lead increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. [11] - **Nickel**: Indonesia may levy a windfall tax on nickel from April 1. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited due to high inventories at home and abroad. [12] - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is not good overall, but the social inventory has decreased due to downstream replenishment. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.64% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and it is advisable to lay out positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.58% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both weak, the production capacity is surplus, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within the range. [15] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell 2.78% on Thursday. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions cautiously or take profits in a timely manner. [15] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sent mixed signals, and the market is not sure if the US - Iran negotiation will end the Middle - East conflict quickly. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by 10 days. The short - term oil price will face a pattern of a slightly rising center and increased volatility. [16] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is affected by high prices. The supply is low, and the short - term absolute price will fluctuate significantly with the oil price. [16] - **PX**: The PX price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream start - up recovery is slow, and it is affected by negative feedback. It is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [17] - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the rebound space is limited. It will remain slightly bullish and fluctuating before the oil price rises significantly. [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds slightly with the rising oil price. The port inventory reduction is limited, and the export expectation is increasing. The basis has strengthened slightly and is likely to fluctuate after a decline. [18] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price remains slightly bullish and fluctuating with the rising oil price. The downstream production reduction suppresses the recovery space, but it can be supported by the cost in the later stage. [18] - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is strong, and the port basis has strengthened. The inventory at the port and production enterprises has decreased. The supply has tightened, and the fundamentals have been repaired. The price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback. [19] - **PP**: The price of PP is supported by the continuous inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain strong, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the main uncertainty. [20] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price is firm. The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting the external supply. [21] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural and strong industrial", and the export policy window is closed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [22][23] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract on the CBOT market closed down 0.06% overnight. The US soybean export sales increased significantly in the week ending March 19. Attention should be paid to the revised biofuel blending target and the end - of - month planting area report on Friday. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and it fluctuates with the soybean meal. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight in the short term, supporting the basis. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil may increase, and it is under pressure along with soybean and palm oil. [25] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.35% overnight, supported by the strong Chicago soybean oil price, rising crude oil price, and strong export data. The domestic palm oil import is affected by the inverted profit, and the market transaction is light. [25] - **Corn**: The national corn price adjusts within a narrow range. The futures price fluctuates strongly, supporting the spot market. The sales of grassroots grain sources in the producing areas have slowed down, and the inventory at ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. However, the acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises is decreasing, and the possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact. [26] - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is slightly improving but still in the off - season, and the breeding loss is increasing. The short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are risks in the futures market. [27][28]