Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of methanol 2601 are all weak. The overall view is that it will run weakly, with bearish factors dominating [1][5]. - Due to the US updating the sanctions list and including 9 ships responsible for Iranian methanol transportation to China in the SDN list, the supply pressure of methanol in China is expected to ease, which boosts the methanol price to repair. However, facing the medium - term downward trend suppression and with weak industrial factors, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Performance - Last Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract started a rebound after reaching a low of 2276 yuan/ton. This week, it continued the rebound trend and recovered short - term moving averages. But on Monday night, it closed slightly lower by 0.26% to 2329 yuan/ton [5]. Market Logic - The inclusion of 9 ships in the SDN list disrupts the import expectation, reducing the supply pressure of methanol in China and driving the price to repair [5]. - The industrial factors are weak, and the medium - term downward trend suppresses the price, leading to the expected weakly oscillating trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the soybean meal market is about to change, and it may stop falling and rebound in the short - term, with the domestic price stronger than the international price. The palm oil futures price faces volatility risks in the short - term [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, but soybean prices are near the cost line, oil mills are suffering continuous losses in crushing and have a stronger intention to support prices, and the negative basis of soybean meal is being repaired. Sino - US trade friction has escalated again, raising supply concerns. The suspension of the USDA report weakens the influence of US soybean futures on the domestic market [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weak; Reference view: weak [6][7] - **Core Logic**: After the unexpectedly bearish impact of the Malaysian palm oil report is released, the futures prices of palm oil at home and abroad have dropped rapidly. The weakening of international oil prices also casts a shadow over the demand for palm oil biodiesel. Unfavorable factors in the industrial chain, unstable trade relations, and weak international oil prices drag down the performance of palm oil futures prices [7] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term price trends of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures are all expected to be oscillating on the strong side, while the medium - term trends are all expected to be oscillating [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The suspension of the US agricultural report due to the government shutdown weakens the influence of US soybean futures on the domestic market. The domestic market has a pattern of "high inventory, weak consumption", but downstream players are optimistic about medium - term price recovery and are actively locking in costs for far - month contracts. Soybean prices are approaching the cost line, and oil mills are suffering losses and are strongly motivated to support prices [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [7][6] - **Core Logic**: The US government shutdown causes a lack of key data, making it difficult to assess the US soybean oil supply - demand situation. Brazil may not increase the biodiesel blending ratio in 2026. India's soybean oil imports are expected to reach a three - year high. The international soybean oil price is oscillating on the strong side, and the domestic market is affected by both the international market and domestic soybean costs [7]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating on the strong side; Reference view: oscillating on the strong side [8][6] - **Core Logic**: The negative impact of falling international oil prices on biodiesel demand has weakened. The supply - demand environment in the palm oil industry has improved, with production in Southeast Asia declining from the seasonal peak and demand boosted by festivals. Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program, which will reduce palm oil exports. The domestic palm oil futures price has risen following the international market after the holiday, and capital has returned [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is a decline, and the overall reference view is weak operation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Performance and View - The methanol 2601 contract shows short - term weakness, medium - term decline, and intraday weakness, with a core logic of being dominated by bearish factors and weak and volatile [1]. 3.2 Core Logic - During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a systemic risk, increasing global financial market risk - aversion sentiment. Gold futures strengthened, while other commodities were generally under pressure. Domestically, methanol's high operating rate and weekly output, along with increasing external import pressure and high post - holiday port inventory, contribute to the bearish outlook. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin market profit is poor, and the weak demand situation remains to be improved [5]. Calculation Rules - For commodities with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is weakly volatile, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly volatile, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strongly/weakly volatile only applies to intraday views [2][3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term and intraday views of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term views are all "oscillating". The overall market sentiment is weak as the National Day holiday approaches, with market volatility decreasing and funds showing risk - aversion [5][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, the market sentiment has weakened, the price fluctuation of soybean products has narrowed, the domestic supply pressure remains unresolved, the downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the inventory pressure of oil mills' soybean meal still exists, and the negative basis has not been repaired [5] Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly. The sharp decline in international oil prices has dragged down the oil market. Although the palm oil industry chain still has support, as the holiday approaches, market funds are risk - averse, resulting in the short - term palm oil futures price oscillating weakly [8] Others - For soybean meal 2601, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand. For soybean oil 2601, factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2601, factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being respectively: short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak. The overall view is that it will operate weakly due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.51% to 2364 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday, but the continued rebound was blocked by the upper 20 - day moving average [5]. Market Driving Logic - Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure has led to a downward shift in the price center. After the previous continuous decline in methanol futures prices, the bearish sentiment has been released. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. Definition of Market Trends - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it's the previous trading day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price on the current day to calculate the price change. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise. Oscillatory strength/weakness only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 and synthetic rubber futures 2511 are expected to run weakly. The short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday trends are volatile and weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.76% to 15,355 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the dot - plot shows a slower - than - expected future interest - rate cut schedule. Also, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the operating rate of the domestic tire industry is gradually weakening, leading to weak demand in the rubber market [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract maintained a weak downward trend, with the futures price closing sharply lower by 2.42% to 11,275 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday [6]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the Fed's interest - rate cut situation and the weakening operating rate of the domestic tire industry due to the approaching National Day holiday result in weak demand in the rubber market [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several agricultural commodity futures, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, with most of them being "oscillating and moderately strong" [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic market supply pressure is increasing, and concerns about short - term supply pressure persist. As the National Day holiday approaches, market funds tend to trade short - term logic with poor stability. Without unexpected risk factors, market volatility may decline before the holiday, and a rebound may occur after short - term market sentiment is released [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Due to increased production and decreased exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons. The EU's one - year delay in implementing the anti - deforestation law has eased the decline of Malaysian palm oil, and palm oil futures prices have rebounded slightly [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is oscillating, intraday view and reference view are oscillating and moderately strong [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong upward trend in crude oil prices due to renewed geopolitical risks, particularly related to ongoing attacks in Ukraine and potential sanctions against Russia [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report presents a short-term and medium-term outlook for crude oil, both indicating a "震荡偏强" (strong oscillation) trend, with a specific focus on the recent geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [5]. Price Movements - On the recent trading day, the domestic crude oil futures contract (2511) saw a slight increase of 1.47%, closing at 482.3 yuan per barrel, suggesting a continuation of the strong oscillation trend in the following days [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that the ongoing military actions in Ukraine against Russian oil facilities and the potential for extended sanctions from the U.S. are key drivers of the current market dynamics, contributing to the upward pressure on crude oil prices [5].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced overall weak fluctuations with significant differentiation among varieties on September 19 [1] - The industrial silicon market saw a notable increase, leading the commodity market with a rise of over 3.6% due to tightening supply [1][3] - The shipping market, particularly the European shipping index, faced a sharp decline of over 6%, marking it as the worst performer in the commodity market [1][5] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Analysis - Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.62% on September 19, supported by a decrease in supply, with a daily increase of over 26,000 contracts [3] - The national industrial silicon production is estimated at approximately 84,000 tons this week, down from 85,100 tons the previous week, indicating a continued decline [3] - Concerns about production cuts in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan have increased, with some companies planning to reduce output after the peak water season [3] Group 3: Protein Meal Market - The protein meal market saw a collective rebound, with the main contract for rapeseed meal rising by 2.15% and soybean meal increasing by 0.43% [4] - The domestic soybean meal market shows strong bottom support, while supply bottlenecks in rapeseed are limiting the downside potential for meal prices [4] Group 4: Shipping Market Dynamics - The European shipping index faced significant downward pressure, with the main contract dropping 6% due to increased pressure on airlines to secure cargo amid a shipping off-season [5] - The current shipping market sentiment is pessimistic, influenced by a lack of sufficient supply reduction compared to the previous year [5] - Despite the current downturn, there are expectations that the decline in shipping rates may slow down after the National Day holiday, with hopes for a rebound in cargo volume towards the end of the year [5] Group 5: Polyester Chain Weakness - The polyester chain products, including PTA and PX, collectively weakened, with both experiencing declines of over 2% [6] - The demand for downstream products like bottle flakes is transitioning into an off-season, contributing to the overall weakness in the polyester market [6] - The continued low international oil prices and a nearly 2% drop in domestic crude oil prices are exerting additional pressure on the PX and PTA markets [6]