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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250818
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 01:12
策略参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025 年 8 月 18 日) 品种观点参考 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种:豆粕(M) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏强 核心逻辑:虽然巴西高升水小幅回落,但在美豆出口未见实质性改善之前,巴西大豆高升水的格局难有改 变,这也为国内豆粕提供了坚实的原料成本支撑,远月合约仍有供应和成本的双重支撑。在中美贸易关系 的扰动下,伴随着资金的移仓换月,前期获利盘止盈离场,豆粕期价迎来高位动荡,短期震荡偏强,内外 价差修复。 策略参考 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 ...
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250815
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:20
Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For both沪胶 and合成胶, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillate", and the intraday view is "oscillate weakly", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 沪胶 (RU) - The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. After the rubber price strengthened to absorb the positive factors, the night session of the domestic沪胶 futures 2601 contract on Thursday maintained an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.92% to 15,650 yuan/ton. It is expected that the沪胶 futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Friday [5] 合成胶 (BR) - The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. After the rubber price strengthened to absorb the positive factors, the night session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract on Thursday maintained an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with the futures price slightly down 1.10% to 11,650 yuan/ton. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Friday [7]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250815
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:14
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导,甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 甲醇(MA) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:偏弱运行 核心逻辑:随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱,甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前国内外 甲醇供应压力依然偏大,下游需求处在淡季阶段,供需结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。在国内煤 炭期货价格震荡偏弱的趋势下,本周 ...
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250815
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:01
策略参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025 年 8 月 15 日) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏弱 核心逻辑:美农报告的库存超预期下降给美豆期价带来提振,美豆期价上涨至 6 周最高水平。国内豆类市 场跟随市场情绪波动,产业链环境并未出现变化,市场交易以贸易格局影响下的供应预期为主。菜系市场 整体受到反倾销初裁情绪的影响,出现大幅回落,盘面波动加剧。 品种:棕榈油(P) 品种观点参考 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种:豆粕(M) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏弱 核心逻辑:随着马棕期货结束之前连续四个交易日的涨势,同时印尼知名行业组织正在游说政府推迟 B50 生物燃料政策的推出。随着市场情绪回落,菜油期价大幅回落, ...
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250814
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be on an upward - trending or at least stable and slightly increasing path, while the medium - term view for all three is "oscillating" [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA report shows that US soybean stocks have declined more than expected, giving a boost to US soybean futures prices. Sino - US trade policy changes and Sino - Canadian trade tensions are affecting market sentiment. The domestic industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and the trading logic revolves around supply expectations and costs. With the initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, Sino - US trade relations continue to impact market sentiment, making short - term soybean meal futures prices more likely to rise than fall [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, the low inventory of US soybean oil and the optimistic expectation of biodiesel demand support US soybean oil futures prices. The increase in domestic soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the pressure of oversupply, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has eased. At the same time, the expected increase in raw soybean costs has pushed up soybean oil futures prices, which have reached new stage highs, and market sentiment has clearly improved [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the rotation of the oil and fat sector has continued. Palm oil has been continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. As the previously weak rapeseed oil has seen a compensatory increase, the upward rotation pattern of the oil and fat sector has been further strengthened, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:10
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil futures prices is expected to be on the stronger side, while the medium - term outlook for both is oscillatory [5][6][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog For Soybean Meal (M): - **Price Movement and Views**: The intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The short - term view of the 2601 contract is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and market trading is mainly based on expected changes. The determination of dumping of Canadian - origin rapeseed by China has led to tense trade relations between China and Canada, and changes in Sino - US trade relations continue to affect market sentiment [5]. For Palm Oil (P): - **Price Movement and Views**: The intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The short - term view of the 2601 contract is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [6][7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The rotation market in the oil and fat sector continues. Palm oil is continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. The change in Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade relations has reignited the sentiment in the rapeseed oil market, leading to a catch - up rise and a platform breakthrough. The linkage support among oil and fat varieties is expected to strengthen [8]. For Soybean Oil (2601): - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side, and the reference view is oscillatory and on the stronger side [7]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].
国内商品期货大面积收涨 焦煤涨近7%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-12 07:17
Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures experienced widespread gains on August 12, with coking coal rising nearly 7% [1] - Soda ash increased by over 5%, while coking and alumina both rose by more than 4% [1] - Palm oil saw an increase of over 3%, and iron ore and lithium carbonate both rose by more than 2% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, soybean meal fell by 3%, and shipping rates on the European route, along with logs, industrial silicon, and Shanghai gold, all dropped by more than 1% [1]
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250812
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:06
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run in a relatively strong manner, showing a short - term, medium - term and intraday trend of stability with short - term and medium - term oscillations and intraday oscillations tending to be strong [1][5]. 3) Summary according to Relevant Catalogue Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation tending to be strong, and the reference view is a relatively strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol has stabilized in an oscillatory manner [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. However, due to the rebound of domestic coal futures prices in the overnight session on Monday, which offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, the methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.04% to 2478 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Tuesday [5].
宝城期货橡胶早报-20250811
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 07:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and mid - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.10% to 15,670 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, with high supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price of the 2509 contract rising slightly by 1.39% to 11,660 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250811
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:02
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday. It is likely to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Monday, August 11, 2025 [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - The methanol 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 0.17% to 2384 yuan/ton due to the slightly lower domestic coal futures price on the night of last Friday and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [5] Market Trends - In the short - term (within a week), the methanol 2509 contract is expected to oscillate; in the mid - term (two weeks to one month), it is also expected to oscillate; and intraday, it is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Core Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are driven by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face a downward shift [5]