Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal and palm oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "oscillating" in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, the market is affected by the prospects of Sino - US trade relations and a weak domestic fundamental situation with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a negative basis pattern [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term market is driven by sentiment. Although there are factors like rainfall in East Malaysia and stable export data, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. The long - term demand may be supported by Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The market is sensitive to changes in Sino - US trade relations. Domestically, the trading logic has shifted to a weak fundamental situation with oil mills having inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, leading to a weak short - term futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: After the supplementary increase in Malaysian palm oil prices, the increase has narrowed. Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may support long - term demand. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, resulting in high - level oscillations of palm oil futures prices [7].

Group 1 - The recent stock market has experienced increased volatility, while the bond market shows signs of improvement but remains oscillatory. The optimistic expectation for the resumption of government bond trading operations has contributed to this recovery, with the ten-year government bond yield dropping below 1.75% [2][5] - The market style has slightly shifted towards small-cap stocks, with growth styles prevailing. The volatility of market styles has increased, while the volatility of value and growth styles has decreased [7][8] - In the commodity market, the strength of the non-ferrous and energy chemical sectors has increased, while the trend strength of other sectors remains stable. The basis momentum across all sectors has decreased [3][20][23] Group 2 - In the options market, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index remains stable, while the implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index has begun to decline. The market experienced a brief pullback in early September, particularly affecting small-cap stocks, but current sentiment has eased [28] - The convertible bond market showed a relatively flat performance, with the index primarily oscillating. The premium rate for convertible bonds remains stable, and the proportion of low premium convertible bonds has not changed significantly [30]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：市场关注四季度到港情况，在中美贸易尚未转向之前，国内豆类市场交易逻辑转向更具确定性 的疲弱的基本面，油厂开工率高位，豆粕库存压力持续累积，豆粕负基差格局持续，短期豆类期价仍将偏 弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。在国内煤炭期货价格大幅上涨以及宏观情绪改善的提振下，本周 一夜盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约迎来企稳反弹的走势，期价略微收涨 0.80%至 240 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides views on the futures of two agricultural products: soymeal and palm oil. For soymeal, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". For palm oil, both the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", with an "oscillating weakly" intraday view [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is strengthening, and export demand is decreasing, putting short - term pressure on US soybean futures prices. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade, the impact on domestic soybeans is limited, and the divergence between domestic and international soybean futures prices will continue. The domestic market's trading logic has shifted to the weak industrial chain, with continuous accumulation of soymeal inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, causing short - term weakness in soymeal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: As the benchmark of the oil market, when other varieties fluctuate around trade topics, the palm oil industrial chain environment has weakened. Pay attention to the impact of weather - related factors. In the short term, market sentiment drives the market, and palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, with an overall view of weak operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The current supply - demand structure of methanol is weak. With coal futures prices oscillating, the domestic methanol market was suppressed by bearish fundamentals on the night of last Friday. The methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.17% to 2374 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Monday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil is "weak with fluctuations", and the medium - term outlook is "fluctuating". The divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue until the Sino - US trade relationship improves. [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The USDA report's reduction of the US soybean yield per unit did not change the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, having limited impact on domestic soybeans. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue. In the short - term, the price of soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate. Factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. [5][7] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the energy attribute of palm oil has taken a back seat, and the trading logic has reverted to the weak industrial chain. As the barometer of the vegetable oil market, with other varieties still fluctuating around trade themes, the industrial chain environment of palm oil has weakened, and the market sentiment decline has led to an overall weakening of palm oil futures prices. Factors also involve biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. [8][7] For Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [7] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The current concerns about geopolitical factors in the domestic and international crude oil futures markets have temporarily overshadowed the pressure of oversupply, leading to a volatile rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical risks have increased and dominated the recent stabilization of oil prices [5]. 3. Summary by Categories Market Outlook - Short - term outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile [1] - Medium - term outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile [1] - Intraday outlook for crude oil 2510: Volatile and slightly stronger, with a reference view of a slightly stronger operation [1][5] Core Logic - The concerns about geopolitical factors such as Western sanctions on Russia, the escalating conflict between the US and Venezuela, and the Israeli air - strike on Qatar have overshadowed the pressure of crude oil oversupply, leading to a volatile rebound in oil prices. Geopolitical risks have dominated the recent stabilization of oil prices [5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.82% to 490.1 yuan/barrel [5].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：豆类市场仍在弱现实和强预期之间博弈。国内豆类期价较外盘相对抗跌。油厂高开工率背景下， 豆粕库存压力持续累积，豆粕负基差尚未改善。在中美贸易关系尚未改善之前，内外盘豆类期价走势分化 行情仍将持续。豆粕期价震荡持续。 品种：豆油(Y) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：现阶段远期原料大豆供应和成本波动仍面临较大不确定性，产业链弱现实压力难以化解。由于 豆油期价不仅受到美豆油和临池油脂品种的关联影响，同时中美贸易前景对豆类市场的影响也将传导至 ...

Market Overview - The current market sentiment remains heated, with the A-share upward cycle not yet over, but transitioning from a unilateral rise to a "slow bull" phase, indicating potential short-term volatility [1][4] - Growth style shows greater elasticity supported by industrial trends and earnings growth prospects, while cyclical style remains more stable; a balanced approach is recommended for investors [1][4] Equity Market Analysis - Last week, the market style favored large-cap stocks, with value style significantly outperforming; the volatility of large and small-cap styles increased rapidly, while value and growth style volatility decreased [6][7] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices increased, indicating a rise in industry rotation speed, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks decreased, suggesting a weakening of the strong index trend [6] - The trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume share rising, while the top five industries' trading volume share remained stable compared to the previous period [6] Market Activity - Market volatility and turnover rate continued to rise last week, indicating increased market activity [7] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the energy and chemical sector's trend strength increased, while other sectors remained stable; the basis differential momentum for black and energy sectors rose [21] - Volatility increased in the black and precious metals sectors, with liquidity performance showing divergence across sectors [21] Options Market Overview - Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 remains high but has shown marginal easing; the skew of put options for the 50ETF has risen rapidly, while the CSI 1000 remains unchanged [25] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - The convertible bond market experienced a decline followed by recovery, with significant volatility; the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan stabilized at a mid-level [27] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has notably decreased, with these bonds performing relatively well; market trading volume has contracted but remains within a healthy range [27]