每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中泰证券指出，本周市场交易热点集中在科技板块，半导体与国产算力板块走势较强。摩尔线程在 科创板上市首日暴涨468%，市值一度突破3000亿，其赚钱效应激活了半导体产业链，带动算力龙头的 估值重塑，并引爆光刻机、先进封装等上下游板块。随着中央经济工作会议临近，政策信号或集中于结 构优化与稳定增长主线，科技链核心方向（如机器人、存储、消费电子等）有望受益于流动性改善与风 险偏好回升。 科创综指ETF国泰（589630）跟踪的是科创综指（000680），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数反映上海 证券交易所科创板市场整体表现，涵盖科创板上市的所有股票。指数成分股主要集中在新一代信息技 术、生物医药、新材料、新能源等高新技术产业和战略性新兴产业，充分体现创新成长风格。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表 ...

策略点评 2025 年 12 月 8 日 稳中有进谋开局，法治护航启新程 事件： 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国 共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。 主要政策解读： （1）政策基调：稳中求进筑牢发展根基。会议提出"实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策"，并特别强调增强政策的"前瞻性、针对性、协同性"。这预示着 未来宏观调控将更注重政策组合拳的效能，财政、货币、产业、科技等政策 将加强协调配合，旨在精准滴灌实体经济特别是薄弱环节与重点领域，避免 政策空转，切实提升宏观治理效能。 （2）多维协同的政策体系，聚焦质效双升。八大坚持构建了覆盖供需两端的 政策体系，内需主导与创新驱动聚焦经济增长动能转换，改革攻坚与对外开 放着力破解制度性障碍，双碳引领与协调发展优化区域和产业布局，民生保 障与风险防控则筑牢社会稳定底线。 （3）制度固本，夯实治国理政根基。会议审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治 国工作条例》，核心价值在于将党领导全面依法治国的实践经验上升为制度 化规范，实现科学化、制度化、规范化三重提升，展现了党中央推进国家治 理体系和治理能力现代化的坚定决心与清晰路径。 总结 ...

中泰证券指出，当前市场交易热点集中在科技板块，半导体与国产算力板块走势较强。摩尔线程在 科创板上市首日暴涨，带动半导体产业链估值重塑，并引爆光刻机、先进封装等上下游板块。随着中央 经济工作会议临近，政策信号或集中于结构优化与稳定增长主线，科技链核心方向（如机器人、存储、 消费电子等）有望受益于流动性改善与风险偏好回升。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 科创综指ETF国泰（589630）跟踪的是科创综指（000680），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数由科创板 中符合条件的所有上市公司证券组成，覆盖广泛市值范围，以反映科创板证券的整体表现。指数行业分 布均衡，重点涵盖电子、医药生物、机械设备等"硬科技"领域，充分体现科创板高成长性和科技创新的 核心特征。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场 ...

如何看待本周市场缩量轮动行情？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 1 周）》2025-12-06 2、《关注港股央企红利配置价值》 2025-12-02 3、《如何看待本周科技板块反弹？》 2025-11-30 报告摘要 如何看待本周市场缩量轮动行情？ 相关报告 本周市场交易额进一步下降，交易热点集中在有色金属、科技与非银金融板块，行 业轮动明显。本周 A 股市场整体呈震荡走势，交易额进一步下降。本周轮动行情主 要由市场短期利好事件带动。有色金属板块在铜、银、锡等资源品价格突破性上涨带 动下周度涨幅较大（5.35%）。半导体与国产算力板块走势也较强，摩尔线程于本周 五在科创板上市，上市首日开盘暴涨 468%，收盘涨幅仍超 400%，市值一度突破 3000 亿。其强大的赚钱效应彻底激活了半导体产业链，带动了寒武纪、海光信息等算力 ...

Core Insights - The recent policy change allowing individuals to withdraw cash over 50,000 without registration is seen as a move to enhance liquidity in the financial market, boosting consumer and investment confidence [3] - The significant borrowing by brokerages, exceeding 100 billion from China Securities Finance, indicates their confidence in the market and willingness to leverage for business, which is a positive sign for market liquidity in the medium to long term [3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The PMI for November rose to 49.2%, with all 11 sub-indices showing improvement, indicating a steady recovery in economic activity supported by both domestic policies and overseas demand [4] - The food and beverage, hotel, and tourism sectors are highlighted as key areas benefiting from the recovery in consumer spending, with companies like Shoulu Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel expected to see performance improvements [5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The technology growth sector is emphasized, with companies like Haiguang Information and Zhaoyi Innovation repeatedly mentioned as potential long-term investments, particularly in the fields of domestic computing power and commercial aerospace [4] - The lithium carbonate price has surged by 60% over six months, driven by increased demand for energy storage, presenting long-term investment opportunities in related industries [5] Group 3: Market Trends - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has risen to 85.4%, which could lead to increased liquidity globally, benefiting both cyclical and growth sectors [5] - The focus for December's investment strategy should be on two main lines: technology growth in domestic computing power and commercial aerospace, and consumer recovery in hotel, tourism, and food and beverage sectors, along with demand-driven cyclical stocks like lithium resources [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities has released a report indicating that recent debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances have contributed to increased market volatility. The current market adjustment shows initial signs of having sufficient space for recovery, with strong support expected around the market center in late September. [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report highlights that the market is currently experiencing adjustments that may have reached a preliminary level of support, suggesting a potential for recovery. [1] - It is anticipated that improvements in overseas liquidity expectations and a reduction in domestic funding pressures will lead to a healthier market environment as sentiment further stabilizes. [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, and if there are any significant deviations, it may be appropriate to increase positions. [1] - The report emphasizes focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in investments, particularly in sectors such as low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. [1] - Continuing to hold large financial stocks is recommended to mitigate volatility in the market. [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound window following the maximum negative impact from equal tariffs [1][9] - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a phase bottom, with short-term adjustments not altering the long-term upward trend, despite liquidity pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [2][9] - Historical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows that significant downturns typically require major negative shocks, with expected maximum adjustments around 10% in the current context [3][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that market volume has decreased, with transaction amounts falling below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum in market leadership [4][12] - It suggests that the current market adjustment presents a good opportunity for accumulation, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, such as real estate and resource commodities [4][13][14] - The report identifies mid-term investment opportunities in high-growth sectors, waiting for renewed confidence in high-prosperity segments like storage and AI [4][13][14]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of positioning for the end of the year, suggesting that bank dividends are a preferred observation strategy if the market experiences a pause in volatility [4] - It highlights the need to wait for a renewed confidence in high-growth sectors over the next 2-3 years, particularly in technology and services [5][10] - The report reviews the market's performance, noting a significant increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, which has risen over 10% to above 3800 points since the mid-year strategy [6][9] Market Overview - The report indicates that the market may experience a phase of consolidation due to external factors such as weakening U.S. economic indicators and concerns over employment, which could lead to a risk-off sentiment affecting A-shares [6][9] - It notes that the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with trading volumes not yet activated and sectors undergoing accelerated rotation [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a proactive approach to market conditions, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, particularly in real estate, resource commodities, and consumer sentiment [11][12] - It recommends monitoring high-growth sectors that are difficult to disprove, such as storage, domestic computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while waiting for a consensus on performance [12] Fund Flow Analysis - The report discusses the potential for fund managers to reduce positions as the year-end approaches, indicating a trend towards profit-taking [13] - It highlights that leverage funds are still flowing in but at a slower pace, suggesting a need to watch for a potential slowdown in inflows [13][28] Calendar Effect Insights - The report analyzes the calendar effect, noting that the market generally trends upward in early November but may weaken following economic meetings [14][31] - It provides insights into market performance across different styles and sectors, indicating a shift towards dividend and quality stocks post-meeting [15][16]

Market Overview - The market showed strong fluctuations on November 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4000 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Index rose by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.84% [1] Sector Performance - The computing power sector saw a significant increase, led by domestic computing power stocks. Additionally, sectors such as non-ferrous metals and mining rebounded, while the power grid continued its strong performance [1] - The technology sector is expected to remain active in the wake of the earnings vacuum period starting in November, with computing power being a core performance line. Investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips in this sector [1] Investment Opportunities - Several new domestic GPU manufacturers are expected to go public in mid-November, which may serve as a catalyst for the market. The price increase in storage is anticipated to continue into Q4, with capacity shortages expected to persist until 2026. There are also expectations for major domestic storage companies to go public in 2026 [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the storage price increase, while the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) is noted for its cost-effectiveness amid the expansion of advanced processes and storage demand [1] Electric Grid Sector - The new narrative surrounding the electric grid may reshape performance and valuation fundamentals. Despite prior consensus on the high electricity consumption of AI data centers, the ongoing power shortages in North America have led to a new opportunity for domestic electric grid companies through power exports. This could enhance profits and potentially raise valuation levels [2] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the Electric Grid ETF (561380) as a potential investment opportunity in this context [2]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term adjustment in the technology sector is a preparatory phase for the next "spring rally" in the market [1] - The overall market remains in a slow bull pattern despite short-term corrections, with a focus on style rotation and opportunities for cyclical stocks [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of macro policy expectations and the performance of small-cap stocks during periods of volatility in large-cap technology stocks [10] Market Overview - In October, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.85%, reaching a ten-year high, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices experienced fluctuations [10] - The market is entering an earnings window period in November, with mixed signals regarding domestic demand recovery [10] - The report notes that while corporate revenue and profits showed significant recovery in September, the October PMI indicated a marginal decline [2][10] Industry and Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, has faced adjustments due to underwhelming earnings reports from companies in the optical communication and PCB sectors [20][34] - Despite the adjustments, domestic computing and storage chip manufacturers have shown strong performance, with significant revenue growth reported [36] - The AI application sector is experiencing a reversal in performance, with increasing penetration rates and initial signs of commercialization in various vertical applications [37][38] Fund Allocation Insights - The report discusses the allocation of active equity funds to the pan-technology manufacturing sector, noting a high configuration ratio of 63.2% and an overweight ratio of 22.1% as of Q3 2025 [22][24] - Historical data suggests that once active equity funds show a significant bias towards a leading industry, this configuration tends to remain elevated for several quarters [29] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the sustainability of these allocations in light of ongoing economic conditions and sector performance [28][29]