宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】1 月通胀数据点评 PPI 同比转正时点或提前 主要观点 ❖ 1 月份通胀数据述评：整体趋势继续改善 PPI 环比上涨 0.4%，连续四个月上涨。环比来看，全国统一大市场建设带动 部分行业价格上涨（水泥、锂电池、光伏设备和元器件、基础化学原料、黑色 冶炼加工），AI 和节前备货需求增长带动相关行业价格上涨（计算机电子、工 业美术用品、农副食品加工），输入性因素影响国内石油相关行业价格下降、 有色相关行业价格上涨。 本月是基期轮换后的首次数据发布。基期轮换后，调查分类目录、调查网点和 代表规格品、权数等均有小幅变动。但根据统计局的测算，本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 ❖ PPI 同比转正时点或提前 PPI 同比在今年三季度转正的概率较大，主要考虑以下三个因素： 第一，中游供需持续改善带来的价格止跌企稳的时点或已提前。在前期报告 中，我们基于 2015-2016 年、2019-2020 年的经验，即从中游装备制造业的供 给增速首次低于需求增速到价格环比止跌回升，大约历时 6-7 个季度。据此 ...

在低基数、AI相关行业需求延续的背景下，PPI可能在二季度个别月份转正，但持续性取决于房地产投资能否见底企稳。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 2026年的第一份物价数据报告出炉，1月CPI同比因春节错位下滑0.6个百分点至0.2%，但在输入性通胀的带动下，PPI同比上行0.5个百分点至-1.4%。以此 估算，1月GDP平减指数同比在-0.4%左右。 对于1月物价，我们认为有三个方面值得关注： 第一，物价数据口径修正的影响较小。 2026年物价数据迎来了五年一次的基期轮换，此次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 从类别上看，CPI在总类别不变的情况下（8大类、268基本分类），通过删减、合并等方式增加了一部分与新消费相关的商品价格如医疗美容服务、车用 电力、互联网医疗服务等等。同时，新增了新增计算出行服务价格指数数据。 从CPI权重上看，本轮基期CPI各分类权数总体变动不大。2025年食品烟酒及在外餐饮、衣着、居住、生活用品及服务、交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗 保健、其他用品及服务八个大类的权数分别为29.5%、5.4%、22.1%、5.5%、14.3% ...

Core Viewpoint - The PPI may turn positive in certain months of Q2 2026 due to low base effects and sustained demand in AI-related industries, but its sustainability depends on whether real estate investment stabilizes [2][17]. Group 1: Price Data Overview - In January 2026, the CPI decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%, while the PPI increased by 0.5 percentage points to -1.4% due to input inflation [4]. - The impact of the price data revision is minimal, with the average effect on CPI and PPI year-on-year indices being approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively [5]. - The weight distribution of CPI categories remains largely unchanged, with food, clothing, and housing accounting for significant portions of the index [5]. Group 2: Industry Contributions to PPI - The weight of midstream industries like electrical machinery and electronic equipment manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals, has steadily increased, while the share of black-related and downstream industries has slightly decreased [6]. - Gold prices have significantly supported CPI, contributing 0.3 percentage points, while AI-related investments have driven PPI up by 0.9 percentage points [8]. - In January, the PPI for non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose by 22.7% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 1.1 percentage points to the PPI increase [8]. Group 3: Future PPI Trends - The PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 2026, with tail effects contributing to this change, potentially moving from -1.5 percentage points at the beginning of the year to around +0.4 percentage points by July [13]. - If the PPI's month-on-month average stabilizes above 0%, it could lead to a positive year-on-year PPI by June, with a potential increase of around 1% [16]. - The sustainability of price increases will depend on downstream demand and the stabilization of real estate investments, which have been a drag on PPI due to declining property investments [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of strong U.S. employment data and declining London zinc inventories on zinc prices, with London zinc rising by 0.59% to close at $3,418 per ton [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an addition of 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding market expectations of 70,000, and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%, indicating a robust labor market [1] - Domestic market conditions are weak as the Chinese New Year approaches, with both trader quotes and downstream purchasing intentions declining, leading to subdued spot transactions and stable premiums [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai zinc market is expected to experience limited changes, with social inventories continuing to accumulate and downstream factories beginning to enter holiday mode, resulting in weakened trading momentum [2] - Analysts suggest that with the upcoming Chinese New Year, market participation is likely to decrease, and it may be prudent for downstream buyers to consider stocking up at lower prices [2] - Short-term fluctuations in zinc prices are anticipated, with support levels projected between 23,500 and 24,500 yuan per ton, as market sentiment remains cautious [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China showed a positive trend in January, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4% [1] Group 1: PPI Trends - The PPI reflects a gradual improvement in industrial production demand and market vitality, indicating a potential positive cycle of "production recovery - demand increase - stable prices" [1] - Key industries such as cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.1%, continuing their upward trend for four months [1] - The price of photovoltaic equipment and components shifted from a 0.2% decrease to a 1.9% increase, while basic chemical raw materials saw a price increase of 0.7% [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The digital economy sector is experiencing strong growth, with prices in computer communication and other electronic device manufacturing rising by 0.5% due to increased demand for digital technologies [2] - Seasonal demand ahead of the Spring Festival contributed to price increases in the arts and crafts sector (4.1%) and agricultural products processing (0.3%) [2] - The price of winter clothing and down products also increased due to heightened demand for cold weather apparel [2] Group 3: International Influences - International prices of non-ferrous metals have remained strong, significantly impacting domestic prices in the non-ferrous metal industry, with PPI for this sector rising by 5.7% month-on-month [3] - Specific increases in metal refining prices were noted, with silver refining up by 38.2% and copper refining by 8.4% [3] - The rise in oil prices is expected to have a more pronounced effect on domestic PPI in February, with a notable reduction in the decline of petroleum product manufacturing prices [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The PPI is expected to continue rising in February, but at a slower rate of around 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline projected to narrow to approximately 1.0% [3] - Marginal upward momentum for basic raw materials and industrial prices may weaken, as indicated by the slower growth in January compared to December [3] - Domestic demand is anticipated to become a more significant factor influencing PPI trends moving forward, with expectations of narrowing declines in the coming months [4]

Market Overview - On February 11, A-shares showed mixed performance with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1% and total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2 trillion, a decrease of 123.7 billion from the previous trading day, with over 3,200 stocks declining [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4131.98 (+0.09%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 14160.93 (-0.35%) - ChiNext Index: 1788.22 (-0.79%) - CSI 300: 4713.82 (-0.22%) - CSI 500: 8325.81 (+0.23%) - CSI 1000: 8239.51 (-0.13%) [2] Sector Analysis - The chemical sector has shown strong performance recently, with companies like Jihua Group achieving four consecutive trading limits. UBS has raised its outlook for the Chinese chemical industry, predicting a new upward cycle from 2026 to 2028 due to multiple positive factors [3] - The fiberglass manufacturing sector experienced a collective surge, with nearly all stocks hitting the daily limit. Notable performers included International Composite, which reached a 20% limit within six minutes of opening, and other companies like Changhai Co., Honghe Technology, and China Jushi also saw significant gains [3][4] Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks were active, with Zhongcai Technology hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high. The domestic commodity futures market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate increasing over 9% [5] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector experienced fluctuations, with Baodi Mining hitting the daily limit and Haotong Technology rising over 9%. Silver futures surged, with spot silver exceeding $83 per ounce, and gold prices recovering to $5050 per ounce [6] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with companies like Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten hitting the daily limit. The computing power leasing concept also saw gains, with companies like Nanxing Co. and Dawi Technology reaching their daily limits [8] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market continued to weaken, with Bitcoin dropping below $67,000, down 3.1% for the day. Concerns over potential shifts in monetary policy have been cited as a significant factor affecting the market [10]

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 10 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡走弱 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡走弱，沪铜持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，国内临近 春节假期，市场交投活跃度下降，行情波动也随之下降。产业层 面，本周一电解铜社库呈现去化，下游逢低补库意愿较强。临近春 节假期，短期资金驱动较弱。短期可关注白银走势，白银短期走势 或影响铜价。 沪铝 今日铝价震荡走弱，沪铝持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，国内临近 春节假期，市场交投活跃度下降，行情波动也随之下降。产业层 面，国内电解铝季节性累库。 ...

Group 1: Overview of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the acceleration of resource competition and technological revolution as key factors reshaping the landscape [2][3] - The overall price trends for non-ferrous metals in 2025 are influenced by tariffs, interest rate cuts, and the reassessment of strategic metal values, with most metals experiencing price increases except for lead and medium-heavy rare earths [8][9] Group 2: Price Trends and Expectations - Precious metals are expected to see significant price increases, with gold and silver projected to rise by 81% and 178% respectively, while industrial metals are expected to increase by approximately 30% [6][8] - The report indicates that the price performance of various metals in 2025 will largely reflect macroeconomic and geopolitical disturbances, with supply constraints and demand fluctuations playing critical roles [5][8] Group 3: Industry Performance and Profitability - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to achieve a cumulative revenue of 4,247.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7%, with profits expected to rise by 36.1% [13] - The profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry is closely tied to price trends, with significant profit increases observed across various sub-sectors, particularly in precious and industrial metals [12][13] Group 4: Gold Market Outlook - The report suggests that the gold price is expected to have an upward trend due to factors such as ongoing central bank purchases and the global fiscal expansion, which is likely to reinforce gold's role as a reserve asset [18][19] - The anticipated continuation of the interest rate cut cycle in 2026 is expected to support gold prices, alongside geopolitical uncertainties that may drive demand for safe-haven assets [27][28] Group 5: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper market is expected to experience ongoing supply disruptions, with the potential for price volatility driven by U.S. tariff policies and global resource nationalism [38][42] - Demand for copper is projected to increase significantly due to the growth of AI data centers and energy storage solutions, which will further support copper prices in the long term [49][53] Group 6: Lead Market Analysis - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices expected to remain stable but under pressure due to limited production increases and low operating rates in recycling facilities [59][63] - The report anticipates a modest recovery in lead production in 2026, driven by new projects and improved market conditions, although challenges remain in the recycling sector [63][72]

2026 年，全球产业升级与资源争夺进入深水区。从新能源汽车的动力电池到AI芯片的精密制造，从电 网基建的升级改造到国防军工的核心部件，有色金属早已跳出传统周期品范畴，跃升为绑定新能源、人 工智能、高端制造的战略硬资产。全球有色金属核心品种需求持续扩张，而矿产资源开采周期长、供给 弹性低，供需缺口不断扩大；叠加全球供应链重构与资源定价权调整的共振，有色板块成为资本市场的 布局焦点。 对普通投资者而言，有色品类繁杂，如何选择适配自身的标的？ 什么是有色金属？ 简单来说，除铁、锰、铬三种黑色金属之外，所有金属都属于有色金属。这一庞大的家族品类丰富、用 途广泛，渗透到国民经济各领域，按属性与应用场景可分为五大核心类别。 不同品类的有色金属，价格驱动逻辑差异显著：有的绑定宏观经济周期，有的依赖新兴产业增长，有的 则受资源稀缺性与地缘政治主导，这也造就了有色板块丰富的投资机会。以黄金、白银为代表的贵金属 核心价值在于避险属性与抗通胀能力，其价格主要受全球货币政策、地缘政治风险、通胀预期等因素驱 动。铜、铝、锌、铅等工业金属需求直接绑定宏观经济复苏与基建、制造业开工率。锂、钴、镍等能源 金属，是新能源汽车动力电池、储能设 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment remains volatile, leading to increased volatility in the commodity market. Short-term demand for replenishment supports prices after a correction in lithium carbonate futures. In the medium term, supply constraints and rising costs at the mining level maintain an upward price trend for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, with limited downside potential despite price corrections, and the market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [4][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. Lithium carbonate prices have significantly corrected, with downstream purchasing concentrated on replenishment. Futures contracts saw a weekly decline of 10.25% to 133,900 CNY/ton for the Wuxi 2605 contract and 10.92% to 132,000 CNY/ton for the Guangxi 2605 contract. Lithium concentrate prices were reported at 1,880 USD/ton, down 90 USD from the previous week [9][14] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include support for rural consumption expansion, particularly in new energy vehicles and smart home appliances, as outlined in the 2026 Central Document No. 1. Tian Tie Technology announced its subsidiary completed high-tech enterprise re-certification. Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 13.93% stake in Huirong Mining for 1.2597 billion CNY to enhance lithium supply security [18] 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - January production of domestic lithium carbonate increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The inventory showed structural adjustments [19][23]