请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 有色商品日报 | 购情绪较低。一季度几矿长协价格出现大幅下调，氧化铝成本继续下压。由于与电解铝 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 厂长单签订完毕，短期大幅减产可能性较低，氧化铝难解下跌压力，现货继续向期货收 | | | | 敛。宏观情绪延续向好，新疆发运问题解除，积压货物周内集中到港，铝锭后续累库压 | | | | 力逐步提升，叠加临近元旦下游开工回调，年末资金亦有回笼需求。现货贴水持续承 | | | | 压，短期宏微分歧抑制近月进一步上破节奏。 | | | | 隔夜 6.47%报 16780 美元/吨，沪镍涨 3.64%报 134400 元/吨。库存方面，LME | LME | 镍涨 | | 库存维持 255186 吨，SHFE 仓单减少 712 吨至 37798 吨。升贴水来看，LME0-3 月升 | | | | 贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 400 元/吨。消息面，印尼镍矿商协会透露，2026 年 | | | | 工作计划和预算中提出的镍矿石产量或将约为 2.5 亿吨，较 2025 年 RKAB 中 3. ...

周三上午市场呈现小幅冲高回落的走势，投资者可以看到，早盘沪指高开3点于3968点，创业板高开4点 于3247点，两市2735股上涨，1731股下跌，早盘市场开盘以后红绿盘震荡，盘中小幅异动冲击3977点， 确认反压区域反压以后遇阻回落翻绿，盘尾各大指数不同程度收跌！最终沪指收跌2点于3962点，创业 板收跌35点于3207点！那么对于这种行情，投资者该如何看待和解读呢？ 以上评论，仅供参考，不作为买卖建议；股市有风险，入市需谨慎（若如提及个股，仅为举例）！投资 者根据手中个股，结合直播思路，尽量做一些合理的操作选择！认为观点有道理的，请【点赞+留言 +爱心+转发】支持，点赞很重要！最后，淘气天尊申明：淘气天尊不会留联系方式（无裙）、不会关 注你、不会私下联系你、不会联系你问询股票、不会联系你谈论股票合作！凡是出现"淘气天尊"联系 你，请及时拉黑和举报，请投资者切勿上当受骗！请关注粉丝数和认证，以及发文时间，其实很好区分 的！ 来自深圳市新兰德证券投资咨询有限公司【陶琦】【执业编号：A0780616060005】 个人观点仅供参考，文章中任何内容均不对您构成任何投资建议，据此操作，风险自担。 股市有风险，投资需 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-30 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 贵金属大幅调整，铜价冲高后大幅回落，昨日伦铜较假期前收涨 0.45%至 12187 元/吨，沪铜主力合 约收至 96060 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 2 ...

今日（12月26日）有色金属板块领涨两市，主力资金实时净流入额（114亿元）亦居于全行业首位，同标的指数规模最大的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内涨 幅一度上探3.98%，现涨3.14%，实时涨幅高居全市场ETF涨幅榜第九，继续刷新上市以来的高点！ 从今年表现看，COMEX黄金大涨71.84%，COMEX白银暴涨156.74%，COMEX铜涨超42%。业内人士指出，2025年金属板块的强势表现，源于宏观金融政 策与供需结构性变化形成利多共振，金融市场多头资金顺势助推，板块轮动效应下，各金属品种轮番上涨并扩大涨势。方正证券认为，当前是有色金属的黄 金时代。 展望2026年，业内人士指出，美联储将面临主席换届、特朗普干预力度加强的境况；同时，美国全力押注AI科技产业所带来的巨额资本开支，往往需要更 加宽松的货币政策环境和松动的财政纪律，美国未偿国债总额或进一步增长。上述因素将进一步加剧中短期的美元信用问题，在AI科技可以真正成为美国 乃至全球经济增长的主要动力、切实提升全要素生产力之前，有色金属牛市有望持续。 【周期风口已至，"有色牛"或将持续】 值得关注的是，有色ETF华宝（159876）此前连续两日吸金，合 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 离岸人民币延续走强，贵金属上涨和对供应缩减的担忧带动铜价冲高，昨日伦铜收涨 0.65%至 12133 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 95020 元/吨。LME 库存减少 1550 至 157025 吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - environment. Different metals show different trends and investment suggestions. [2][3][4][7][9][10] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, SHFE copper showed a position - reducing and oscillating trend. Shanghai copper discount widened to 215 yuan, and Guangdong discount was 125 yuan. Yangshan copper premium rose to $55. At high copper prices, the spread between refined and scrap copper did not widen further. The market is concerned about trading sentiment during the New Year period, especially the tight concentrate supply in the first quarter. Hold a small number of long positions above 92,500 yuan. [2] Aluminum, Alumina and Aluminum Alloy - Today, SHFE aluminum oscillated. Spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China remained at - 170 yuan, - 330 yuan, and - 245 yuan respectively. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 22,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 300 tons. The fundamental contradiction in the aluminum market is still limited. The short - term market is macro - driven, and the loose trading continues. SHFE aluminum mainly follows the upward trend. Hold long positions with the 40 - day moving average as support and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,300 yuan. The inventory of the cast aluminum industry and exchange warehouse receipts fluctuated narrowly. Tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. Driven by the macro - environment, cast aluminum alloy has limited ability to follow the upward trend at high levels. The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change. The industry inventory continues to rise. The average full cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850 - 2,900 yuan, and the spot index has fallen to around 2,710 yuan. There is still a profit in cash - cost accounting. A mining enterprise in Guinea will lower the long - term contract price by $5 in the first quarter, and the alumina cost has room to decline. Alumina will be weak before large - scale production cuts, and the spot price is more likely to fall when the spread is large. [3] Zinc - Intraday, long - position traders continued to cover their positions. The daily position of SHFE zinc weighted increased by 3,609 lots to 198,800 lots. The annual - line position has strong support, and the overall trend is still in a rebound. The LME zinc inventory is at the level of 99,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot discount is $33.43 per ton. The squeeze - out atmosphere of foreign capital has subsided, and the zinc export window has closed. In late December in China, more zinc smelters carried out maintenance. Downstream consumption declined in the short term due to environmental protection control in the north, but overall resilience still exists. Given the low consumption base in 2025, the consumption outlook in 2026 is not overly pessimistic. Coupled with the expected resonance of loose monetary policies between China and the US in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan per ton. [4] Lead - The overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. Domestic primary lead smelters that had previously carried out maintenance are gradually resuming production. The consumption side has mixed news, and the upward momentum of lead is weak. The TC of lead concentrate remains stable at a low level, the price of waste batteries has stopped falling, and the cost support for recycled lead is still strong. The spread between refined and scrap lead is 50 yuan per ton. The domestic lead inventory is low, and the impact of incremental pressure still needs to be tracked. SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan per ton. [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The market performance was triggered by the stop - loss orders of industrial short - position traders, and the irrational trend is expected to have limited sustainability. The news from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association last week triggered a surge in the nickel market. The nickel ore quota in 2026 will be reduced to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 380 million - ton quota in 2025, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be revised at the beginning of 2026. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,700 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel is resistant to decline, and the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 888 yuan per nickel point. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, but the market is still dominated by policy sentiment in the short term. The pure nickel inventory increased by 260 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons. Wait for the end of market fluctuations and mainly wait and see in the short term. [7] Tin - SHFE tin oscillated and closed up slightly with a small reduction in positions. In November in China, the import volume of tin concentrate in metal tons continued to recover, with increasing volumes from the DRC and Myanmar. High tin prices continue to suppress consumption. In terms of inventory, the inventories in both domestic and foreign markets are high. The market shows strong resonance between volume and price. Emphasize the high - level risks. [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rose again, and the market trading was active. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan, and the spread between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 2,650 yuan. The sharp increase in lithium carbonate prices has led to a continuous rise in lithium ore prices. However, due to the market's lack of confidence in maintaining high prices of lithium carbonate, the trading enthusiasm at the current high level is limited. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,500 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 51,000 tons. The mid - stream sector is enthusiastic, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,385, and the ore - end quotation remains strong. The futures price of lithium carbonate is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong. Short - position traders are relatively under pressure. [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon strengthened again, closing above 8,700 yuan per ton. There are repeated rumors about the shutdown of northern production areas before the end of the month. In the spot market, the weekly production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the operating rates in other production areas in the southwest and northwest remained stable. On the demand side, due to the implementation of joint emission reduction in December, the operating rate of silicone decreased significantly compared to November, and the weekly output has shown a slight recovery. After large - scale production cuts in November, the operating rate of polysilicon decreased limitedly in December. The weekly social inventory of industrial silicon decreased significantly, but the downstream raw material inventory increased, and the factory inventory in Xinjiang has the pressure of inventory accumulation. In summary, the demand for industrial silicon is under pressure, and the futures price is strongly oscillating due to the expectation of end - of - month production cuts. [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon continued to decline slightly. Due to the adjustment of trading rules and the strong performance of other metals, the market sentiment has cooled down. After the establishment of the purchase - reserve platform, the market is still waiting for further plans. In the spot market, the price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material decreased slightly today, with an average price of 52,350 yuan per ton. There is no news of transactions for the previous high - price quotations of manufacturers. Driven by the expected increase in the costs of silver and silicon raw materials, the quotation of downstream battery cells has increased to 0.34 yuan per watt, but there has been no actual transaction. The factory inventory of polysilicon remains at a high level of 293,000 tons. In summary, there is still an expectation of capacity adjustment for polysilicon, but the high inventory in the short term and the downstream production - cut situation have hindered the increase in the spot price of polysilicon. The trading sentiment in the futures market has cooled down. The increase in the new delivery factory warehouses and the maximum amount of warehouse receipts indicates that if the futures price fails to effectively break through 60,000 yuan per ton in the short term, it will maintain an oscillating trend. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals and industrial silicon, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand situations, and price trends, and providing corresponding trading suggestions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper reached a high, with strong support from short - term moving averages and potential resonance sentiment. Overseas, investment banks continued to raise next year's copper target and average prices [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Last week, the turning signal of domestic refined copper spot amplified. Attention should be paid to the spot discount range. The global copper ore supply may be tight in Q1 next year [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Peru extended the informal mining license for one year. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,500 tons to 160,400 tons, with a slight premium of $4 for LME - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: Hold a small number of long positions in Shanghai copper relying on 92,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The ktis mine in Guinea resumed production, and the long - term CIF price in Q1 decreased by about $5 to $66.5/ton. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained at 95.9 million tons, with significant over - supply [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was above 4.2 million tons, and the second - phase of Inner Mongolia's Zhashan project was officially put into operation on December 20 [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.36 to 61.5%. In November, the aluminum product export was 1.885 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6% [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 4,000 tons to 600,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 4,000 tons to 123,000 tons. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China expanded significantly [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. Short - term macro factors dominate. Follow the long - term long positions relying on the 40 - day line [1]. Zinc - **Trend**: Last week, there was a large - scale delivery in the zinc market, and the structure changed from backwardation to contango. The domestic - to - foreign price ratio was slightly revised upwards, and the zinc spot export window was completely closed [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased by 88,000 tons to 99,900 tons, with a 0 - 3 - month discount of $30.61/ton. Some smelters had a strong willingness to reduce production due to losses, and the smelter maintenance in late December expanded [1]. - **Consumption**: As the price rebounded, downstream acceptance weakened. Zinc consumption declined periodically. The social inventory of zinc slightly increased to 124,500 tons on Monday [1]. - **Trend**: The difference between domestic and overseas fundamentals narrowed. The domestic - to - foreign price ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market Conditions**: The lead import window remained open, and the overseas surplus pressure was smoothly transmitted to the domestic market. The main contract range was 16,700 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME lead inventory was at a high level of 258,600 tons, with a 0 - 3 - month spot discount of $45.23/ton. The supply - side pressure increased slightly. The profit margin of secondary lead smelters was compressed [1]. - **Consumption**: Lead prices were stronger domestically than overseas. Battery exports were under pressure, but the demand for automotive batteries was okay, and the demand for lead - acid batteries in data centers and energy storage was expected to increase steadily [1]. - **Trend**: The fundamentals are neutral. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, and the trading was active. Shanghai stainless steel rebounded similarly, with moderate trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The news from the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association affected the market. The downstream procurement willingness may be strong at the end of the year, but the spot trading was cold. Stainless steel was in a wait - and - see state [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: Jinchuan nickel had a premium of 6,700 yuan, and the inventory of nickel increased by 200 tons to 59,000 tons. The stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Wait for the end of policy disturbances and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [1]. Tin - **Market Conditions**: The capital sentiment in the tin market was concentrated in Shanghai tin, following the trading sentiment of precious metals and copper [1]. - **Supply**: There was no clear clue about the supply in the southern part of Congo (Kinshasa). Indonesia's January export volume reached a two - year high. The domestic tin ore import continued to recover [1]. - **Consumption**: High tin prices continued to suppress consumption. The LME and domestic social inventories increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount to the delivery month [1]. - **Trend**: The market has strong volume resonance. Emphasize the high - level risks. The supply in traditional production areas is expected to resume in 2026, while the consumption may be over - estimated in some sectors [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures price rose significantly, with active trading. The trigger was the news of canceling some warrants [1]. - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate was reported at 99,000 yuan, and the price difference between industrial and battery - grade was 2,650 yuan. The industry maintained both supply and demand, and the de - stocking trend continued but at a slower pace [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The overall demand maintained strong resilience. The downstream demand declined slightly, but the demand for power batteries remained high [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons. The price of Australian ore remained strong [1]. - **Trend**: The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly, with overall strong fundamentals and relatively tight short positions [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price increase was obvious, with a significant resistance at 8,700 yuan/ton. The spot price in Xinjiang remained stable [1]. - **Cost**: The price of silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 30 yuan/ton, and other raw materials were basically stable [1]. - **Supply**: The production reduction of some silicon enterprises in the north was limited. The output in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the operating rate in the southwest remained flat [1]. - **Demand**: The average price of organic silicon DC rose to 13,600 yuan/ton. The weekly production of polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate stabilized in December [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was about 553,000 tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 8,000 tons. The inventory of downstream raw materials increased [1]. - **Trend**: The market is waiting for the end - of - December trend. The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are under pressure, and the upward space is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: After breaking through the 60,000 - yuan/ton mark, the price decreased with a reduction in positions. The spot price remained stable at 52,400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon in December decreased slightly. The downstream silicon wafer production decreased significantly by 18% month - on - month, and the industry operating rate remained at about 41% [1]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 293,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The change in exchange rules cooled the sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still under pressure, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space [1].

Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to experience a "spring rally," driven by central bank policy adjustments and significant economic data releases, with a potential upward trend in 2026[2] - The market showed a strong upward movement last week, indicating the possible start of the 2026 cross-year market rally[2] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on growth and consumer sectors based on historical patterns and current market conditions[2] - The market's large-cap style outperformed, suggesting a transition from a liquidity-driven market to one driven by fundamentals[2] Fund Flows - A total of 28 new funds were established last week, with a combined issuance of 18.218 billion units[2] - Stock-type ETFs experienced slight outflows, primarily from TMT, financial real estate, and ChiNext theme ETFs, while broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows[2] Bond Market Insights - The total issuance of industrial bonds reached 163.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.44% week-on-week, accounting for 44.07% of the total credit bond issuance[2] - The REITs market saw a decline, with the weighted REITs index returning -2.74% last week, ranking lower than other major asset classes[2] Economic Data - November's economic indicators showed a further decline, with industrial production growth slowing down year-on-year, while fixed asset investment's cumulative year-on-year decline expanded[2] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, attributed to government shutdown impacts, but is expected to decrease as the government reopens[2] Sector Recommendations - In the petrochemical sector, companies like CNOOC and China Oilfield Services are recommended due to their high growth potential in offshore oil and gas exploration[5] - The semiconductor materials industry is expected to expand due to increased demand for high-purity materials driven by AI computing and data center construction[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to move downward with a weak trend and operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, while lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a range-bound manner, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total output. Six Anhui short - process steel mills will have one stop on January 5th and most around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [2] - The finished products continued to decline and hit a new low. In the weak supply - demand situation, the price center moved down due to pessimistic market sentiment. This year's winter storage is sluggish and provides weak price support. The outlook is for volatile consolidation [1][2] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased positions, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The average price of electric carbon was 97,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8,410 yuan/ton. Market transactions rely on a small number of enterprises' rigid - demand purchases, with few actual deals [1] - As of December 18, the weekly production rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, a 0.21% MoM increase, and the output was 22,045 tons, a 0.21% MoM increase. The spodumene process was the core growth factor. The 10,000 - ton/year spodumene production line of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Energy was ignited on December 18 [2] - As of December 18, affected by weakening demand from battery cell manufacturers and maintenance of some lithium iron phosphate plants, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.2% MoM. The inventories of ternary and lithium iron phosphate continued to decline [2] - In November, the production of new - energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased YoY. As of December 7, the sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly YoY and the penetration rate increased MoM, showing short - term adjustment but long - term resilience [2] - As of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% MoM to 110,400 tons, continuing the destocking trend with a slower slope. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% MoM to 26.2 days. Although there was inventory accumulation in other links, the overall inventory was still tight, supporting prices [2] - The Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference are positive for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate. The market sentiment is affected by the tight supply - demand balance, overseas resource/restart news, and domestic lithium mine capacity dynamics, leading to continued capital games [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated narrowly and trended stronger, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The inflation data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed turning dovish, and the expectation of continued interest - rate cuts in 2026 was reinforced. With the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, there are certain macro - level disturbances. Although copper has digested this factor to some extent, short - term caution is advised, but a prudent and optimistic attitude can be maintained [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina still has downward pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to run at a high level as the de - stocking process is expected to be prolonged [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices rose. The news boosted nickel prices, but the actual implementation situation needs to be monitored. In the traditional industry chain, the price of nickel - iron was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the stainless - steel spot market improved. In the new - energy industry chain, the price was dragged down by the decline in nickel prices and weakening demand [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US inflation data in November showed a further easing of inflation pressure, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed turning dovish. LME copper inventory decreased by 2650 tons to 164275 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 2339 tons to 416914 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 227 tons to 44650 tons, and BC copper decreased by 5127 tons to 1053 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2545 yuan/ton, down 1.05%, with a position reduction of 4503 lots to 166,000 lots. AL2602 closed at 22030 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, with a position increase of 3445 lots to 299,000 lots. AD2602 closed at 21130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with a position reduction of 14 lots to 17176 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2778 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to 140 yuan/ton [1]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.84% to 14630 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.56% to 115350 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 60 tons to 253938 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 748 tons to 37513 tons. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the planned nickel ore production in 2026 might be about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 2025 target [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 17, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 92115 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory was 166925 tons, up 325 tons from the previous day. The total domestic + bonded area social inventory was 23.9 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from the previous day [4]. - **Lead**: On December 17, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 265575 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 2508 tons to 32227 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 17, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21740 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan from the previous day. The total SHFE inventory decreased by 3635 tons to 119995 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.2 million tons to 59.6 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 17, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 118350 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan from the previous day. The LME registered + cancelled inventory was 253998 tons, up 690 tons from the previous day. The total social inventory of nickel (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) was 58970 tons, up 2122 tons from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 22910 yuan/ton, down 1.0% from the previous day. The LME S3 price was 2505.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The social inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 12.58 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: On December 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 325010 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The LME S3 price was 27540 US dollars/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory increased by 526 tons to 7391 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts for analysis, including spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][15][22][29][35][42]