1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, steel products are supported by the cost side with limited downside, but lack upward drivers, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a high shipping level, slow steel - mill resumption, increasing port inventories, and high valuations, so the short - term price is weak but with limited downside [21] - The coking coal supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the surplus is not serious. The inventory structure is expected to improve, and the macro sentiment is the key factor for price trends [32] - Ferroalloys have large supply pressure, but are supported by the cost side, and may show bottom - oscillating trends after a correction [49] - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, with increasing over - supply expectations. High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream limit prices [63] - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, and the high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, with existing spot pressure [87] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products - **Price Data**: - On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day, and the month - spreads also showed different degrees of change. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, up from 3165 yuan/ton on the previous day [4] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed slightly, and the basis also had corresponding fluctuations [8][10] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot roll - rebar price difference also showed different trends [15] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable [18] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of iron ore is at a moderately high level with a 12% year - on - year increase. The steel - mill resumption is slow, with a 1.5 - million - ton week - on - week decrease in molten iron production to 228 million tons. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, exceeding historical highs [21] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts generally decreased compared to the previous day, and the basis also changed. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 806.5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal supply - demand structure is in surplus, but the surplus is not serious compared to previous years. With the improvement of demand and the reduction of domestic mine production during the Spring Festival, the inventory structure is expected to improve [32] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the coking coal and coke contract spreads, the basis, and the production profits all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [33][35][36] Ferroalloys - **Fundamentals**: Silicon iron has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of silicon manganese has decreased week - on - week, but the inventory base is still large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is large, but they are supported by the cost side [49] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the basis, contract spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [50][51] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: With the release of new production capacity, the daily output of soda ash has reached a new high, and the over - supply expectation is intensifying. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is high, which restricts the price. However, exports in November were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [63] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts and the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [64] Glass - **Fundamentals**: Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [87] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts and the month - spreads changed significantly. For example, the glass 01 contract dropped to 0 yuan/ton from 941 yuan/ton on the previous day [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: The demand for rebar weakens seasonally as construction in the north halts, and the destocking slope of hot-rolled coils slows down and is expected to turn into inventory accumulation. The supply fundamentals weaken as the iron water output rebounds and the steel mill profits improve, leading to a month-on-month increase in both outputs. The support from furnace materials and its low valuation limit the downside space. The iron ore replenishment expectation supports the ore price, but the accumulation of port inventories restricts the increase. Coking coal prices rise due to production cut news, but the inventory base is relatively large, and both are expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The price rises due to capital spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak. The supply side has neutral shipments, high floating inventories at sea, and continuous arrival pressure, with abundant spot goods. On the demand side, although the iron water output has bottomed out and rebounded, the steel market has entered the off - season, and the rebar inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, making it difficult to support a continuous and substantial increase in iron water production. The port inventory has exceeded 170 million tons and continues to accumulate, resulting in a deviation between price and fundamentals [20]. - Coal and Coke: The domestic mines continue to resume production, and the number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the import end has declined but remains at a high level year - on - year. The price difference between Australian coal at home and abroad is inverted, leading to a possible decline in subsequent arrivals. The iron water output of steel mills has stabilized and rebounded, increasing procurement demand. The start of winter storage and the rebound of the futures market have driven the release of speculative demand, and many coking enterprises have initiated price increases. There is a structural surplus in supply and demand, but the degree is limited, and macro - sentiment is the core driver [30]. - Ferroalloys: Ferrosilicon has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of ferromanganese has decreased month - on - month, but the inventory base is still relatively large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is high, but the cost side provides support. In the short term, after the correction, ferroalloys are expected to show a bottom - oscillating trend [46]. - Soda Ash: The previous increase in commodity sentiment has driven up low - valued varieties, and the futures market has risen, with mid - stream replenishment of soda ash. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, with the heavy - soda balance remaining in surplus. In November, the soda ash export was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [60]. - Glass: Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory of the glass mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure as the terminal has entered the off - season [82]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had slight fluctuations. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [4][8][10]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 830 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan from the previous day. The basis also changed, with the 01 basis at - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of January 9, 2026, the average daily iron water output was 2295,000 tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 162.7526 million tons, up 3.0437 million tons week - on - week [25]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 167 yuan, up 57 yuan from the previous day. The coking profit on the futures market was - 42 yuan, up 36.912 yuan from the previous day [31][33]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties had different changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1500 yuan/ton, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1069 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan week - on - week [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 13, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 12 yuan, up 16 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 138 yuan, up 5536 yuan from the previous day [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 184 yuan, up 64 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.18%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 61 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day [61]. - **Fundamentals**: New production capacity is gradually releasing output, and the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, and the export volume in November was close to 190,000 tons [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the glass 05 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 4.11%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day [83]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed certain fluctuations from January 2 to January 8, 2026 [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, profit margins have improved, reducing the incentive for production cuts. Iron ore production has stopped declining and stabilized, with a slight increase in output. However, downstream demand is expected to weaken gradually after the festival. Currently, inventory is being depleted, but there may be inventory accumulation due to supply - demand mismatches in the future, leading to a price return to a volatile pattern [3] - For iron ore, the current fundamentals are neutral. The shipping end is slightly positive, but there is significant pressure on floating ore at sea and subsequent port - arrival pressure. On the demand side, steel mill profits have rebounded, and inventory has been continuously depleted, providing room for increased production. It is expected that iron production has bottomed out and will rebound. Inventory is high, but there is a structural shortage. Attention should be paid to policy risks. Steel mills have pre - festival inventory replenishment demand for support. Overall, the current spot market is not short of iron ore, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price increases. In the short - term, prices are overbought technically, and attention should be paid to policy risks related to inventory release [22] - For coking coal and coke, the market has been affected by the "anti - monopoly" news, and the previous hype of the "anti - involution" concept has cooled down. The coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of correction. The rebound of coking coal and coke is mainly driven by the resonance of macro and industrial logic. Macro - level events have intensified concerns about the supply stability of key mineral resources, affecting multiple sectors. On the industrial side, the stabilization and rebound of downstream iron production, the strengthening of winter storage replenishment expectations, and low inventory in the spot - futures trading link support the demand side. The impact of macro sentiment on coking coal and coke prices is significantly stronger than that of industrial logic. If the macro sentiment cools down, it will be difficult to support a significant upward movement of the futures market relying solely on the improvement of demand in the black industry chain. The subsequent trend may turn into a small - range volatile pattern [32] - For ferroalloys, with the increase in production and continuous inventory accumulation, the upward momentum of price fluctuations may be suppressed, leading to a price correction. However, the downward space is limited due to cost support [48] - For soda ash, the sentiment in the commodity market has heated up, driving up low - valued varieties. Fundamentally, as the expectation of new production capacity comes into play, the expectation of oversupply in soda ash is intensifying. Recently, the cold repair of glass production lines has accelerated, further weakening the expected rigid demand for soda ash. The medium - to - long - term high - level supply expectation of soda ash remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In November, soda ash exports were close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to alleviate domestic pressure to some extent. High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts soda ash prices [62] - For glass, there are still some glass production line cold repairs to be implemented before the Spring Festival, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy disturbances to supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of supply expectations, the high inventory in the mid - stream of glass needs to be digested, and with the terminal market entering the off - season, there is still pressure on the spot market [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,089 yuan/ton, down from 3,127 yuan/ton on January 8; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices also showed slight declines in some regions [4][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 55 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 41 yuan/ton on January 8; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 39 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 17 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar - hot - rolled coil spread also showed some changes [4][16] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the 01 contract was 852 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 05 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day. The basis also showed corresponding changes [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The average daily iron production on January 9 was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port inventory was 16,275,260 tons, up 304,370 tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread Data**: On January 9, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 83 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 328 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan from the previous week [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 9, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 38 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 146 yuan/ton on January 9, down 62 yuan from the previous day; the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [50] Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,228 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,295 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [63] - **Inventory and Market Data**: The overall inventory of the upstream and mid - stream remains high, restricting price increases. In November, exports were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [62] Glass - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,144 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,238 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85] - **Sales and Production Data**: The sales - to - production ratio in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on January 4 was 137, compared to 130 on January 3 [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report presents a weekly analysis of the black industry chain, covering various aspects such as market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of different products including steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys [1][12][13]. - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to remain at a low level. The impact of short - term domestic macro - market on prices is limited [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a continuously loose supply - demand situation. Although the macro - narrative is positive and the industrial chain fundamentals have improved, the price increase is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The fundamentals of the coal - coke market are still weak. Although the coal price has stopped falling and rebounded in the past two weeks, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The price rebound lacks upward support, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The cost side has relatively strong support, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of the futures main contracts and spot prices of various products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and scrap steel from December 19 to December 26, 2025 [8]. 3.2 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%, the operating rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 78.32%, and the capacity utilization rate increased to 84.94%. The average daily pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The steel market was mainly in a sideways consolidation state last week. Heavy pollution weather warnings in many places affected the supply side, but it was the off - season for demand, and the weak demand made it difficult for supply changes to drive price increases [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain at a low level [12]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, China's monetary and fiscal policies are in a period of active reserve, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. The real - end of the industrial chain is in a weak equilibrium stage, and prices maintain a narrow - range fluctuation trend. The inventory pressure on the steel product side has been continuously relieved, and the valuation of the industrial chain has rebounded. The strong spot price of iron ore supports the futures market, and the upcoming steel mill restocking cycle may support prices. In terms of supply, the weekly shipment of foreign mines decreased slightly, and the arrival volume remained at a medium - to - high level and was higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, domestic demand has stabilized and rebounded slightly, and the restocking demand is expected to be continuously released. In terms of inventory, the steel mill's imported inventory has increased, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore in the range of 770 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market (FE01) price of about 102.5 - 105.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Later Concerns**: Incremental macro - policies, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coal - Coke - **Logic**: Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. The coking coal prices in various regions were weakly stable, and the steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, with further price cut expectations in the market. Coal mines reduced production at the end of the year, and coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but the overall market transaction was still weak, and the mine - end inventory continued to accumulate. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased, and the port supervision area inventory was at a relatively high level. The demand was temporarily stable, and the average daily pig iron output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling [16]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to position risk control before the New Year's Day [16]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in the production rhythm of coal - coke - steel and changes in the clearance of imported coal [15]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US economy maintains resilience, but there are still internal contradictions. In China, Beijing optimized the purchase - restriction policy, and the central bank carried out MLF operations to release a loose signal. The black metal futures market showed a weak sideways trend last week, and the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures increased slightly. In terms of supply, the production and operating rate of manganese silicon increased, but the operating rate was still significantly lower than the same period in the past five years; the production and operating rate of silicon iron continued to decline slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, while the demand for silicon iron decreased slightly, and both were significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In terms of inventory, the cost support for both manganese silicon and silicon iron was relatively strong [17]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and future attention should be paid to changes in the supply side and the progress of winter storage [17]. - **Later Concerns**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [17]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 1.8439 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0271 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3191 million tons; the apparent demand was 2.0268 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0596 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.169 million tons. The long - process output was 1.5498 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.026 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3528 million tons; the short - process output was 0.2941 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.001 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0337 million tons. The long - process factory inventory was 1.1345 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.002 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.106 million tons; the short - process factory inventory was 0.2661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0032 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0787 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1881 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1598 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0052 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1853 million tons; the total inventory was 4.3425 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1829 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.3451 million tons [20][23][26][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 2.9354 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0163 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.136 million tons; the apparent demand was 3.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0876 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0229 million tons. The social inventory was 2.967 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.106 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6995 million tons; the steel mill inventory was 0.8052 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.029 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0018 million tons; the total inventory was 3.7722 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.135 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7013 million tons [31][36]. - **Basis**: For rebar in Shanghai, the basis for January was 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 92 yuan/ton; for May, it was 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 77 yuan/ton; for October, it was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 67 yuan/ton. For rebar in Beijing, the basis for January was 133 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 51 yuan/ton; for May, it was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 17 yuan/ton; for October, it was 63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the basis for January was - 18 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 66 yuan/ton; for May, it was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; for October, it was - 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [39][44][48]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Imported Ore Port Inventory (45 Ports)**: The total imported ore port inventory this week was 158.5866 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4603 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.956 million tons; the Australian ore inventory was 69.4126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6865 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.7914 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 56.6956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.255 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3277 million tons; the trade ore inventory was 103.6761 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6995 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.6771 million tons; the average daily port ore removal volume was 3.1506 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0161 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0915 million tons [51]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory/Daily Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.6019 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3624 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 7.1151 million tons; the inventory - to - sales ratio was 31.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88; the daily consumption was 2.8004 million tons per day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0054 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0554 million tons; the daily pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0003 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0129 million tons [62]. - **247 Steel Mills' Operating Rate/Profitability Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the iron - making utilization rate was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61 percentage points; the profitability rate was 37.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points [67]. - **Global Shipment (19 Ports)**: The total global shipment this week was 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.277 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.027 million tons; the shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 27.846 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.407 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.707 million tons; the non - mainstream shipment was 7.159 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons [71]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 9.126 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1215 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0772 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.922 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.011 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.085 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.029 million tons; the inventory of 4 ports was 1.782 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0255 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0952 million tons [109]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coking enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 27.578 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3023 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.5825 million tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises was 10.397 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.034 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.149 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 0.8067 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0017 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.031 million tons; the inventory of 5 ports was 2.995 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore has both upward and downward drivers and is expected to trade in a range, with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the coke valuation repair drive may weaken [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside and downside space [48] - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming online, the market is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [62] - Some glass production lines are expected to cold repair before the Spring Festival, affecting long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [85] Summary by Categories Steel Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3097, 3118, and 3167 respectively; hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3288, 3283, and 3296 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] Ratios - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore were all 4; to 01, 05, and 09 coke were all 2 on December 26, 2025 [18] Iron Ore Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 801.5, 783, and 761 respectively [22] Fundamentals - On December 26, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons [25] Coking Coal and Coke Futures Spreads - On December 26, 2025, the spreads of coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 were 174, - 80, and - 94 respectively; for coke were 224.5, - 76.5, and - 148 respectively [35] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [38] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 26, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [49] Silicon Manganese - On December 26, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 100, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton [50] Soda Ash Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1200, 1258, and 1121 respectively [63] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [63] Glass Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1057, 1160, and 936 respectively [86] Spot Sales - On December 25, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 102, and in Hubei was 97 [87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content. Report Core View - Steel prices are supported by the cost - end but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3]. - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non - mainstream mines as the main source of incremental supply, exerting significant supply pressure. However, iron ore also has upward drivers such as the expected bottoming of hot - metal production, so it is expected to trade in a range [21]. - As terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, after three rounds of price cuts, the valuation repair drive may be weakened [30]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys show both weak supply and demand. Their price increase space is limited, but they are also supported by costs [46]. - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming into production, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The spot - futures basis is high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be shut down for cold repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [83]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Price - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3116 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [4]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3330 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Beijing was 3130 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shenyang was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged [8][10]. Basis and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 204 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day; the 05 basis was 192 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 10 basis was 151 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 05 basis was - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 10 basis was - 25 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 164 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 05 spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 10 spread was 126 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [8][10][14]. Iron Ore Price and Basis - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 796.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the 09 contract was 756.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The 01 basis was - 2.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the 05 basis was 13.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the 09 basis was 34.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [22]. Fundamental Data - From December 19, 2025, the average daily hot - metal output was 226.55 tons, down 2.65 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port desilting volume was 313.45 tons, down 5.74 tons week - on - week; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 835 tons, down 4 tons week - on - week; the global shipment volume was 3464.5 tons, down 128 tons week - on - week; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2748.6 tons, down 140.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2646.7 tons, down 76.7 tons week - on - week; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, up 81.21 tons week - on - week; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8723.95 tons, down 110.25 tons week - on - week; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.09 days, down 0.1 days week - on - week [25]. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 159 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 78 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The coke 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread was - 142 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan. The on - disk coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, down 19.281 yuan; the main mine - coke ratio was 0.447, down 0.001; the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.797, up 0.004; the main coke - coking coal ratio was 1.544, down 0.021 [33]. Spot Price - On December 23, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No.5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry coke was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged [37]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 23, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 48 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Inner Mongolia was 5350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Qinghai was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shaanxi was 5320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Gansu was 5300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [47]. Silicon Manganese - On December 23, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 98 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan from the previous day; the 01 - 05 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 05 - 09 spread was - 46 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 09 - 01 spread was 116 yuan/ton, unchanged. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia was 5570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guizhou was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangxi was 5670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan was 5620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48][49]. Soda Ash Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.51%; the 09 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.74%; the 01 contract was 1117 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.72%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with a change of 5.56%; the 9 - 1 spread was 115 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, with a change of 0.88%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with a change of - 3.33%. The basis of Shahe heavy soda was - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the basis of Qinghai heavy soda was - 249 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [61]. Spot Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the market price of heavy soda in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in South China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shahe was 1137 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan. The market price of light soda in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in East China was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Central China was 1180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northeast China was 1350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Southwest China was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between heavy and light soda in most regions was 50 - 70 yuan/ton [61]. Glass Futures Price and Spread - On December 23, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1028 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.29%; the 09 contract was 1130 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the 01 contract was 938 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 77 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Hubei was 159 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 05 contract basis in Shahe was - 33 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was 59 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was - 130 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; in Hubei was - 41 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [84]. Sales and Production - From December 13 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was between 69 - 98%; in Hubei was between 75 - 109%; in East China was between 83 - 98%; in South China was between 95 - 107% [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides a weekly review and forecast of the black industry chain, covering various products such as steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and ferroalloys. It analyzes the supply - demand situation, price trends, and market factors of each product [12][13][16]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to consolidate at low levels due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and a lack of macro - level drivers [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - level driving force is weakening, but restocking demand may support prices. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price of Dalian iron ore futures ranging from 770 to 800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a rapid decline in the previous period, the pessimistic sentiment in the market has been released, and prices may rebound periodically. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and prices are likely to fluctuate at low levels [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon manganese is expected to adjust narrowly in the short term due to accumulated supply - demand contradictions and high inventory pressure. Silicon iron is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term as supply contracts and inventory decreases [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The futures prices of most products showed an upward trend last week. For example, the RB2605 contract of rebar rose 1.93% to 3119 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil rose 1.14% to 3269 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most products also increased, with rebar rising 0.92% to 3300 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil rising 0.93% to 3270 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The supply - demand of steel products is weak. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased. The demand is not improving in the short term and may decline further with the cold weather. The price rebound is mainly due to the raw material price [12]. - **Viewpoint**: Steel prices will consolidate at low levels [12]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly week - on - week, and the arrival volume was at a medium - high level. Domestic demand decreased rapidly, and the inventory of steel mills was low. The port inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - **Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price of Dalian iron ore futures ranging from 770 to 800 yuan/ton. The strategy is to operate within the range and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policy increments, implementation of industrial policies, and supply recovery speed [13]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The market sentiment improved last week, and the futures prices rebounded. The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import volume of Mongolian coal remained high. The demand for raw materials was suppressed due to the decrease in pig iron output [14]. - **Viewpoint**: Prices may rebound periodically but are likely to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [14]. - **Attention Points**: Production rhythm changes in the coking coal - coke - steel industry and changes in imported coal customs clearance [14]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: The macro - economic situation is complex. The supply of silicon manganese and silicon iron decreased, and the demand was weak. The inventory of silicon manganese reached a new high, while the inventory of silicon iron decreased [16]. - **Viewpoint**: Silicon manganese will adjust narrowly, and silicon iron will be slightly stronger in the short term [16]. - **Attention Points**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [16]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 181.68 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.90 tons), the apparent demand was 208.64 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.55 tons), and the total inventory was 452.54 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 26.96 tons) [19][27]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 291.91 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 16.80 tons), the apparent demand was 298.28 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.69 tons), and the total inventory was 390.72 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 6.37 tons) [32][37]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total port inventory of imported ore was 15512.63 tons (a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons), and the daily average port dredging volume was 313.45 tons/day (a week - on - week decrease of 5.74 tons) [52]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 110.25 tons), and the daily consumption was 280.56 tons/day (a week - on - week decrease of 2.71 tons) [62]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory was 900.45 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 3.35 tons) [90]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory was 2727.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons) [97]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 34 yuan/dry ton degree, the silicon manganese price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan), and the silicon iron price in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 130 yuan) [130]. - **Production**: Last week, the silicon manganese output of 187 independent enterprises was 188230 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1015 tons), and the silicon iron output of 136 independent enterprises was 99800 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 6500 tons) [136][139]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for silicon manganese from five major steel products was 112402 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 385 tons), and the demand for silicon iron was 18132 tons (a week - on - week increase of 84 tons) [141]. - **Inventory**: On December 19, the silicon manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises was 384500 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2500 tons), and the silicon iron inventory of 60 independent enterprises was 65160 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 12680 tons) [145].