Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation of a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][19]. Core Views - The company has maintained stable performance in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 44.158 billion and a net profit of 1.097 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.93% in net profit despite an 8.41% decline in revenue [1][2]. - The company's strategy includes expanding into the coal sector and promoting an integrated industrial chain, which is expected to enhance competitiveness and profitability [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the filament industry, potentially leading to a recovery in industry conditions [4][9]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 98.046 billion, with a net profit of 2.112 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.7% [1][11]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 6.76%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities improved by 83.87% year-on-year, indicating better cash management [3]. Industry Insights - The filament industry is expected to benefit from the government's "anti-involution" policies, which aim to eliminate low-price competition and promote product quality [4][9]. - The overall effective capacity in the polyester filament industry was 53.38 million tons as of the first half of 2025, with limited new capacity additions, suggesting a stable supply environment [9]. - The demand for polyester filament is projected to increase due to seasonal factors and improved export performance, which may support price recovery [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - In the low - interest and high - volatility market environment, dividend investment is popular. The China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend Index has significant advantages, and the Rongtong China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF provides an efficient tool for investors to invest in high - quality central enterprise dividend assets [2][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Dividend Investment - A Long - Term Winning Strategy across A - Share Style Rotations 1.1 Long - term Allocation Value of Dividend Assets - Dividend investment focuses on stable cash - flow and profit growth of companies. In the context of China's low - interest environment and style rotations, dividend assets have more prominent allocation advantages compared to bonds. As of 2025, the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index is over 4.3%, higher than the 10 - year Treasury bond yield [7]. 1.2 "Offensive and Defensive" Attributes of Dividend Investment - Dividend investment offers both long - term allocation value from dividends and relatively stable capital gains. It shows strong anti - decline and defensive capabilities in bear markets and can also benefit from economic upswings. From 2005 - 2024, high - dividend indices led the market in 9 years, and from 2015 to the present, the CSI Dividend Index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index [9]. 1.3 Allocation Value of the "Dividend + Fixed - Income" Portfolio - The "dividend + fixed - income" portfolio is a cost - effective strategy in a low - interest environment. It can enhance the overall return and reduce volatility. The correlation between the CSI Dividend Index and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate from 2015 to now is - 0.5 [13]. 2. How to Choose a Dividend Index 2.1 Comparison of Dividend Index Compilation Methods - Dividend index compilation mainly involves sample selection and index calculation. Traditional dividend indices use historical dividend yields, which have limitations. The China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend Index is the first in the A - share market to use the expected dividend yield for stock selection and weighting, considering both dividend willingness and ability [16]. 2.2 Analysis of the Return Characteristics of Different Dividend Indices - Different dividend indices have different risk - return characteristics. From 2017 - 2025, the China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend Index has high returns, a high Sharpe ratio, and low drawdowns. It has outperformed indices like the CSI 300, CSI Dividend Index, and CSI Central Enterprise Dividend Index by about 20 percentage points in cumulative returns and nearly 2 percentage points in annualized returns [19][28]. 3. Rongtong China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF: A New Choice for Dividend Investment 3.1 Policy - Driven Valuation Repair of Central Enterprise Dividends - Central enterprises are important pillars of the national economy with high stability. Their valuations are currently low but have great potential for repair. Policies such as the improvement of the central enterprise assessment system and market - value management policies are driving the valuation increase [31][33][35]. 3.2 Advantages of the China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend Index - The index has four features: it uses the expected dividend yield, focuses on mid - large - cap high - dividend cyclical stocks, does not include bank stocks, and has high dividends and low valuations. As of August 2025, its dividend yield is 4.38%, higher than the central enterprise and A - share averages [36][38][40]. 3.3 High Returns, High Sharpe Ratio, and Low Drawdowns of the Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend Index - Since 2017, the index has achieved a cumulative return of 56.02% and an annualized return of 5.41%. Considering dividends, the cumulative return is 113.16%. It has better risk - return characteristics compared to other indices [43]. 3.4 Investment Strategy and Applicable Scenarios of the Rongtong China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF - The fund is a fully passive index fund using the full - replication method. It is suitable for long - term allocation by pension funds, insurance funds, and conservative investors. It also offers tactical allocation opportunities and can be used as a defensive asset in a volatile market. As of August 2025, its management and custody fees are lower than most similar products [45][46][47].

蓝筹股方面，腾讯控股涨1.04%，收报633.5港元；香港交易所涨1.37%，收报444.6港元；中国移动涨 0.35%，收报87.05港元；汇丰控股涨1.95%，收报104.4港元。 香港本地股方面，长实集团涨1.49%，收报38.1港元；新鸿基地产涨4.28%，收报97.5港元；恒基地产涨 2.37%，收报27.68港元。 中资金融股方面，中国银行涨2.06%，收报4.46港元；建设银行涨2.84%，收报7.97港元；工商银行涨 1.87%，收报6港元；中国平安涨0.69%，收报56.55港元；中国人寿涨1.85%，收报23.12港元。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王佳宁】 新华社香港9月10日电 香港恒生指数10日涨262.13点，涨幅1.01%，收报26200.26点。全日主板成交 2882.09亿港元。 国企指数涨85.76点，收报9328.16点，涨幅0.93%。恒生科技指数涨73.95点，收报5902.69点，涨幅 1.27%。 石油石化股方面，中国石油化工股份涨0.95%，收报4.23港元；中国石油股份涨0.81%，收报7.45港元； 中国海洋石油涨0.2%，收报20.18港元。 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:58，今日沪指涨0.26%，A股成交量1013.91亿股，成交金额16316.30 亿元，比上一个交易日减少6.89%。个股方面，2382只个股上涨，其中涨停54只，2848只个股下跌，其 中跌停5只。从申万行业来看，通信、电子、传媒等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.42%、2.70%、1.67%；电 力设备、综合、基础化工等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.29%、1.17%、1.06%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:58） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 3.42 | 1228.20 | 43.45 | 元道通信 | 20.01 | | 电子 | 2.70 | 2660.86 | 6.48 | 思泉新材 | 19.33 | | 传媒 | 1.67 | 571.93 | 15.06 | 幸福蓝海 | 15.42 | | 计算机 | 0.98 | 1089.70 | -6.86 | 宇瞳光学 | 12.48 | ...

Group 1 - The overall profit of A-shares in the first half of 2025 increased by 2.44% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed down compared to the first quarter [2][9][10] - The net profit of non-financial A-shares rose by 1.03% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points from the first quarter [9][10] - The net profit of the non-financial and non-oil and gas A-shares increased by 4.82% year-on-year, with a decrease of 3.08 percentage points from the first quarter [9][10] Group 2 - The total revenue of all A-shares increased by 0.03% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after a year of decline [15][19] - The revenue growth rates for the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board were 7.04% and 4.81% respectively, while the North Stock A-share saw a growth of 5.66% [18][19] - The main board's revenue growth rate decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, but improved by 0.25 percentage points from the first quarter [19] Group 3 - The overall gross profit margin for A-shares was 17.84%, a slight increase from the first quarter [22][24] - The gross profit margins for the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board were 23.25% and 28.98% respectively, with the latter maintaining a high level [24][25] - The gross profit margin for the main board decreased by 0.03 percentage points compared to the first quarter [24] Group 4 - Major expenses for non-financial enterprises saw a year-on-year decline, with sales expenses down by 2.29% and financial expenses down by 15.38% [29][30] - The revenue and cost growth rates for non-financial enterprises were -0.18% and -0.17% respectively, indicating a narrowing decline [29][30] - The overall economic environment is expected to improve, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment [30] Group 5 - The return on equity (ROE) for all A-shares remained stable at 7.73%, with slight variations across different sectors [33][34] - The sales net profit margin for all A-shares increased slightly to 7.87% [33][34] - The total asset turnover ratio for all A-shares improved, indicating better efficiency in asset utilization [33][34] Group 6 - In the upstream sector, the performance of the coal industry was weak, with revenue and net profit declining significantly [41][42] - The agricultural sector showed signs of recovery, with a revenue increase of 8.95% and a notable rise in net profit [42] - The machinery equipment sector experienced steady growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 7.26% and 18.08% respectively [44] Group 7 - The real estate sector continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.92% [46] - The consumer sector showed overall performance slowdown, with the automotive sector's revenue growth rate decreasing significantly [47] - The TMT sector exhibited mixed results, with the electronic sector showing strong growth while the media sector experienced a decline [48] Group 8 - The banking sector's net profit growth turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.77% [49] - Non-bank financial institutions continued to perform well, with a net profit increase of 18.36% [49] - Other sectors such as transportation and defense showed improvement, while environmental and public utility sectors faced challenges [50]

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 8 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘震荡走高，沪指重返 3800 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3812.51 | 1.24% | 46.64 | | | 深证成指 | 12590.56 | 3.89% | 471.86 | | | 沪深 300 | 4460.32 | 2.18% | 95.12 | | | 创业板 | 2958.18 | 6.55% | 181.93 | | | 科创 50 | 1268.55 | 3.39% | 41.57 | | | 北证 50 | 1618.18 | 5.15% | 79.20 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | 7.19% | 银 ...

险资入市全拆解 20260906 摘要 2024 年第二季度险资增持 A 股超过 2000 亿元，整体增持趋势稳步提 升，预计 2025 年下半年险资或带来 3,000-4,000 亿左右的增量资金。 自 2024 年四季度以来，险资逐步从外部管理人转向直接投资股票，二 季度直投重仓股主要增持红利类资产，减持能源品，科技成长和高端制 造领域内部调整后整体仍有增持。 截至 8 月 31 日，险资举牌上市公司达 28 次，其中 23 次为港股，显著 高于去年，反映出险资配置股息率和性价比更高的港股红利资产的趋势。 今年上半年，险资通过 ETF 配置宽基程度放缓，占比见顶，与保险运用 资金余额在股票和基金间背离分化相一致，表明险资逐步从指数投资转 向直投。 二季度险资偏好股息率高的红利资产，从传统银行、公用事业扩展到通 信、食品饮料等广义红利资产，减持石油石化、煤炭等高分红但可持续 性较差的行业。 险资减持宽基 ETF，增持 A500ETF，反映出更关注成长性资产，如国 防军工、医药生物等，而非传统行业，并通过指数投资工具布局成长领 域。 上半年五家 A 股上市保险企业持有股票市值环比增长 28.7%，增速提升， ...

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital private equity funds are increasingly favoring "Chinese-character" stocks, particularly in sectors like banking, public utilities, and transportation, reflecting a preference for high-dividend, low-valuation stocks that offer stable returns and manageable risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - As of June 30, insurance capital private equity funds held seven A-share stocks, with a notable preference for "Chinese-character" stocks [1][2]. - The three private equity funds managed by Guofeng Xinghua (Beijing) Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. have maintained their positions in key stocks such as Yili Industrial, Shaanxi Coal and China Telecom [2]. - The investment strategy emphasizes stocks with high dividend yields and stable development, with specific stocks like Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and China Petroleum showing dividend yields of 6.6%, 5.9%, and 5.28% respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Strategy - The first phase of the Honghu Zhiyuan fund has completed its investment and achieved good returns, while the second phase is nearing completion [3]. - The third phase of the fund focuses on large A+H shares that meet specific criteria, including good governance and stable dividends, with the investment team showing significant improvement in stock selection capabilities [4]. - Insurance companies are increasingly prioritizing equity asset allocation, particularly in high-dividend stocks, to counterbalance the declining safety of fixed-income assets [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Holdings - As of June 30, insurance companies appeared in the top ten shareholders of 735 listed companies, holding a total of 927.4 billion shares, with a market value of approximately 1.57 trillion yuan [5]. - The top five holdings by insurance companies include Minsheng Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Unicom, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Zheshang Bank [5]. - Insurance companies are optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of the year, focusing on sectors like technology innovation and advanced manufacturing for investment opportunities [6].

2025 年 09 月 07 日 债券在争议中上涨——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 | 1、《外资流入带来资金面改善—— | | --- | | 资产配置周报》2025-08-31 | | 2、《债券很难转入趋势熊市——资 | | 产配置周报》2025-08-24 | | 3、《风险偏好突破前高——资产配 | | 置周报》2025-08-17 | 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 7 月实体部门负债增 速录得 9.1%，前值 8.9%。预计 8 月实体部门负债增速小幅下 降至 9.0%附近，后续趋势下行，重回缩表。按照两会公布的 财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速将下降至 8%附 近。金融部门方面，上周资金面边际上有所收敛，这种情况 发生在月初比较少见，或预示整个 9 月资金面情况都比较紧 张。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出："使社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in China experienced revenue growth but profit decline in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 44,635.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and total profit of 1,814.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [1] - The fixed asset investment in the chemical industry showed a year-on-year decline of 1.1% in the first half of 2025, indicating a potential slowdown in capital expenditure [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.76% from the beginning of 2025, while the basic chemical industry index increased by 7.38%, suggesting a relatively positive market sentiment towards the chemical sector [1] Group 2 - In the basic chemical sector, the industry achieved a revenue of 11,707 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 731.7 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [2] - The sales gross margin for the basic chemical industry was 17.2% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.3%, up 1.25 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The oil and petrochemical sector, excluding the two major state-owned enterprises, saw a revenue decline of 7.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a net profit decrease of 13.5% [2] Group 3 - Recommended stocks in the chemical industry include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Juhua Co., Hengli Petrochemical, and others, which are expected to benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics [3] - Beneficiary stocks also include Meihua Biological, Dongfang Shenghong, and Yuntianhua, indicating a broader range of investment opportunities within the sector [3]