Report Title - Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - EG's explicit inventory continues to decline, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] Core View - Ethylene glycol's supply and demand have both increased recently, but it is mainly within expectations, and there is no obvious driving force in terms of fundamentals. The short - term sentiment of the chemical industry is expected to remain strong. Although the ethylene glycol market is in a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase expectation has been well - traded, and it is difficult to compress the valuation. With the combination of low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks within the range. In the medium - to - long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4300 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about ethylene glycol price decline | Long | Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs; buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2601, EG2510P4400, EG2510C4600 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50% | 4550 - 4700, 10 - 20, 30 - 70 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops | EG2601, EG2510P4400 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 4350 - 4450, 30 - 50 | [2] 利多解读 1. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity per year, which may impact ethylene glycol's raw material supply and ethylene - based production costs [4] 2. The planned arrival this week is 9.851 million tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, which will further tighten spot liquidity [6] 3. The loom load has continued to increase slightly recently. As the terminal autumn and winter orders start in September and foreign trade orders have recovered, the demand and downstream sentiment have improved marginally, and the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to continue to increase [6] 利空解读 - The supply side of oil and coal has both increased, and the total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Among them, the ethylene - based production load has increased, and the coal - based production load has risen to 81.25% (+0.78%). Next week, some plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the total load is expected to continue to increase [7] Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, as well as spread data between different contracts and processing fee data [10][11]

Federal Reserve Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, urging Chairman Powell to remove her from the board due to concerns over her financial history [2][3] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated she would not support a rate cut if a policy decision were made tomorrow, citing persistent high inflation [2][3] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but he is concerned about the labor market [3][4] Market Reactions - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 75% [5] - U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow down 152.81 points, as investors await Chairman Powell's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference [6][7] U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - The U.S. and EU have reached a framework agreement on trade, which includes a commitment to apply either the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on EU goods [8][9] - The agreement aims to reduce tariffs on automobiles and parts, with a potential reduction to 15% contingent on EU legislative action [10] Polyester Sector Insights - The polyester sector has seen a rebound since August 15, driven by stable oil and coal prices, low inventory levels, and approaching demand season [11][12] - The upstream PX segment is performing well, while PTA and polyester segments are experiencing lower profits, indicating a "strong upstream, weak downstream" dynamic [13]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the role of the futures market in supporting the internationalization of the polyester industry, emphasizing the positive impact of government policies on market openness and participation from global clients [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Market Development - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued a policy in April 2025 to enhance the strategic implementation of free trade zones, focusing on the opening of specific futures varieties and exploring diversified pathways for internationalization [1]. - As of July 2025, over 760 overseas clients from more than 30 countries and regions have opened accounts in the Chinese futures market, indicating strong trust from global industry players [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The use of Chinese polyester futures and options tools has effectively optimized storage and logistics costs for exports, enhancing the global market share and international pricing power of Chinese polyester products [1]. - Looking ahead, the integration of China's petrochemical industry is expected to further enhance the pricing capabilities of bulk commodities, supporting the global development of Chinese enterprises [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and the port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market port inventory has been depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish inventory has declined [2]. - Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical sector has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, have experienced continuous delays in maintenance, which may have a significant impact on the future market. This has also been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease. Polyester sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has had a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - **PTA**: The market risk preference has recovered, and the crude oil price has slightly increased during the day, strengthening the cost support. The PTA supply side has seen both restarts and maintenance. The PTA spot price has slightly increased following the futures price. On August 12, 2025, the PTA main futures price was 4726 yuan/ton, the spot price was 4705 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee was 218.3 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee was 229.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The spot negotiation price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4507 - 4509 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The ethylene glycol futures have maintained a relatively strong trend, and the spot price has continued to rise, while the basis negotiation has slightly weakened [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 76.56%, the MEG start - up rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 58.74%, and the polyester load decreased by 0.21 percentage points to 86.88% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6730 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7095 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F increased by 30 yuan/ton to 7935 yuan/ton. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY were - 51, - 186, and - 46 respectively, with changes of - 10, 40, and 20 compared to the previous day. The sales of polyester filament increased from 40% to 41% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased by 20 yuan/ton to 6570 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to 139, and the sales increased from 57% to 58% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5815 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to - 66, and the sales increased from 89% to 115% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, the supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, the port inventory of PTA has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, and the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. The market port inventory is being depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved with the weakening of the basis. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of Northeast PX plants and Zhejiang reforming units has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol (MEG). The macro - sentiment has clearly improved, and the chemical industry has followed the warming sentiment of commodities. The maintenance of overseas MEG plants, especially Saudi Arabian ones, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the future market and has been boosting the price of MEG. The future arrival volume of MEG is expected to decrease. The polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid increase in polyester prices, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 515.0 yuan/barrel on July 29, 2025, to 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, with a change of 13.60 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 1095.4 yuan/ton to 1014.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 80.83 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.2927 to 1.2641, a change of - 0.0286; CFR China PX increased from 857 to 866, a change of 9; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 279 to 277, a change of - 2; PTA主力期价 increased from 4838 yuan/ton to 4856 yuan/ton, a change of 18.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 4830 yuan/ton to 4860 yuan/ton, a change of 30.0 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 213.3 yuan/ton to 179.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 34.0 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased from 211.3 yuan/ton to 185.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 26.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from (5) to (10), a change of - 5.0; PTA仓单数量 decreased from 30740 to 29738, a change of - 1002 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4467 yuan/ton to 4450 yuan/ton, a change of - 17.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (97.29) to (96.48), a change of 0.8; MEG内盘 increased from 4510 to 4527, a change of 17.0; 主力基差 decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: PX开工率 remained unchanged at 77.29%; PTA开工率 decreased from 80.59% to 79.45%, a change of - 1.14%; MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 58.13%; 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F increased from 6720 to 6760, a change of 40.0; POY现金流 increased from (171) to (162), a change of 9.0; FDY150D/96F increased from 7015 to 7060, a change of 45.0; FDY现金流 increased from (376) to (362), a change of 14.0; DTY150D/48F increased from 7910 to 7955, a change of 45.0; DTY现金流 increased from (181) to (167), a change of 14.0; 长丝产销 increased from 33% to 110%, a change of 77%; 1.4D直纺涤短 remained unchanged at 6665; 涤短现金流 decreased from 124 to 93, a change of - 31.0; 短纤产销 decreased from 53% to 42%, a change of - 11%; 半光切片 increased from 5885 to 5920, a change of 35.0; 切片现金流 increased from (106) to (102), a change of 4.0; 切片产销 increased from 68% to 89%, a change of 21% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Core Insights - The polyester industry in Fujian has significantly increased the application of futures and options tools for risk management, especially amid heightened market price volatility [1][4] - Leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Fuhai Chuang and Baihong, have deepened their use of futures tools, with both companies possessing delivery warehouse qualifications [1][2] - The shift from passive risk hedging to proactive value management is evident, as companies leverage futures and options not only for risk management but also to reconstruct cost advantages [4] Group 1: Industry Trends - The polyester industry benefits from comprehensive coverage of upstream and downstream futures products, allowing companies to optimize operations using these tools [2] - Many factories have developed hedging experience with PTA and short fibers, indicating a strong awareness of futures [2] - The integration of spot and futures trading models provides differentiated services, enhancing the industry's risk resilience in a low-profit environment [2][3] Group 2: Service Providers - Industry service providers like Guomao Chemical and Huixing Industrial are empowering polyester companies through diverse service models, including customized risk management and cross-market trade services [3] - These service providers are facilitating a transition from simple trading to integrated trade and manufacturing, helping companies stabilize production and manage price risks effectively [3][4] - The application of innovative collaborative models, such as "self-management + cooperative production," is helping companies mitigate price volatility risks and achieve strategic breakthroughs [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Recently, Sino - US economic and trade consultations in London led to a shift in market expectations from optimism to pessimism, and the crude oil price first strengthened and then retreated, causing the polyester industry chain to rise and then fall [1] - The cost - end oil price fluctuates due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline cracking spreads have limited upside, and the aromatics market has seen changes in exports and short - process device operations. PX supply is recovering, and its price spread has declined [2] - PTA supply is becoming more abundant as devices restart, with a slight inventory reduction in June. However, strong polyester production - cut sentiment affects demand expectations. Polyester demand is weak in the off - season, and the production rates of downstream weaving and texturing are declining [3] - PF has weak fundamentals, and it's difficult to further improve the processing margin. PR has high inventory pressure and a compressed processing interval, facing price pressure [3][4] Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It covers toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profits [24][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][57] PF Detailed Data - It contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [70][72][85] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and price differences [87][89][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is oscillating weakly with news of production cuts. The prices in the industry chain are oscillating downward as filament enterprises continue the third - round production cut plan and bottle - chip production may be further reduced [1] - The cost - side oil price is oscillating due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline and aromatics have limited upside in cracking spreads, and the blending demand is not promising. The supply of PX has recovered, and its spread has declined, but the spot market is still tight. The supply of PTA is becoming more abundant, and the polyester demand is weakening in the off - season [2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Covers figures such as TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Shows the operation rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Includes the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various polyester products, as well as the operation rates of related downstream industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [49][51][62] VII. PF Detailed Data - Covers the load of polyester staple fibers, inventory days, and the operation rates and profits of related yarns [75][83][88] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes the load of polyester bottle - chips, inventory days, processing fees, and export profits [90][92][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of PX both increased, with the floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX weakening. The PXN spread also weakened due to the increase in PX unit operation and the restart of maintenance units. The supply of downstream PTA increased while demand decreased, and the de - stocking of PTA social inventory slowed down. The basis was strong, the monthly spread weakened, and the processing fee was strong first and then weak. In June, with the significant increase in PX operating rate and the restart of most previously maintained PTA units, along with the planned commissioning of a new 2.5 - million - ton PTA unit of Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3, PX will still maintain a tight balance under the pattern of increased supply and demand. The polyester downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with poor efficiency of polyester factories, a decline in operation, and a slowdown in the expected de - stocking rate of PTA in June [7]. - Next week, the expected import arrival volume of ethylene glycol is about 137,000 tons. With weak sales of downstream polyester and limited terminal pick - up at the wharf, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread of ethylene glycol will weaken. In June, the maintenance volume of ethylene glycol remains high, and the import is expected to increase slightly. The downstream polyester has poor efficiency, rising inventory, and a decline in operation. In June, ethylene glycol will show a pattern of both supply and demand decline [7]. - This week, the operation of short - fiber decreased, inventory increased, the operation of terminal weaving, texturing, and dyeing declined, short - fiber production enterprises suffered losses, and the expectation of production reduction was strong. The downstream yarn mills also suffered losses, and the inventory of grey fabrics increased, so the short - fiber processing fee may be under pressure [7]. - This week, the operation of bottle - chip decreased. Although the downstream soft - drink industry is still in the peak season, after the previous centralized procurement by bottle - chip downstream, the bottle - chip downstream is still mainly consuming raw material inventory in the short term, and there were still no tenders from large beverage manufacturers this week. Currently, the overall supply of bottle - chip is abundant, the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is still under pressure [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX & PTA** - Logic analysis: This week, PX supply and demand both increased, with weakened floating price, basis, and monthly spread, and a weakened PXN spread. PTA supply increased while demand decreased, and the de - stocking of social inventory slowed down. In June, PX will maintain a tight balance, and the PTA de - stocking rate is expected to slow down [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - long PX and short PTA; Option - double - selling options [7]. - **MEG** - Logic analysis: Next week, the expected import arrival volume will increase, port inventory is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread will weaken. In June, there will be a pattern of both supply and demand decline [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - sell call options [7]. - **PF** - Logic analysis: This week, operation decreased, inventory increased, and the processing fee may be under pressure [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - double - selling options [7]. - **PR** - Logic analysis: This week, operation decreased, and the processing fee is still under pressure [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - sell call options [7]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - The operation of polyester continued to decline this week, inventory increased, and profits remained at a low level. Except for the relatively good profits of filament, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and chip are all in a loss state [10]. - The operation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing declined [14]. - After the festival, the operation of filament decreased, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Affected by the production reduction of mainstream industry suppliers, the price of filament factories was firm, and the processing fee was stable [16][18]. - The market atmosphere of bottle - chip was weak, and losses intensified. The operation of bottle - chip decreased this week. Although the downstream soft - drink industry is in the peak season, the downstream is still mainly consuming raw material inventory, and there were no tenders from large beverage manufacturers. The overall supply is abundant, and the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak, so the processing fee is still under pressure [19][26]. - Short - fiber is in a loss state, and the expectation of production reduction is strong. The operation of short - fiber decreased this week, with increased inventory, and both short - fiber production enterprises and downstream yarn mills suffered losses [27]. 2.2 PX - The floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX decreased compared with the previous period [29]. - The gasoline inventory increased, and the cracking spread remained weak [31]. - Due to the increase in PX unit operation and the restart of maintenance units, the PXN spread weakened. There are multiple PX unit maintenance and operation adjustment plans in China and Asia (excluding China) [33][35][36]. 2.3 PTA - The de - stocking of PTA social inventory slowed down, the basis was strong, and the monthly spread weakened. As of June 6, the basis of the main port in May was at 09 + 225 for transactions, and the 09 - 01 contract monthly spread was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day before the festival [37]. - The supply of PTA increased while demand decreased, and the processing fee was strong first and then weak. This week, the operation rate of PTA increased by 3% week - on - week, and in June, the monthly average operation rate is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. The output in June is expected to increase by about 1 million tons [39][41]. - The spread between domestic and foreign markets of PTA recovered, and the export expectation decreased. From January to April, the cumulative export of PTA was 1.3364 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. After the commissioning of the new Turkish SASA unit, the export volume of PTA to Turkey decreased significantly. In May, the spread between domestic and foreign markets narrowed, the export profit declined, and the export expectation decreased [42][44]. 2.4 Ethylene Glycol - The expected import arrival volume will increase, the port inventory is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread will weaken. As of June 6, the spot basis of ethylene glycol was at a low - level transaction of a premium of 115 - 118 yuan/ton to the 09 contract; the 9 - 1 contract monthly spread was 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week weakening of 49 yuan/ton [45]. - In June, the maintenance volume of ethylene glycol remains high, and the import is expected to increase slightly. There are multiple domestic and foreign ethylene glycol unit maintenance plans [48][52]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, Brent crude oil, etc. [56]. - **Inter - variety spread & profit**: It includes the spreads and profits between PX and other varieties such as naphtha, BLENT, and MX [58][59][60]. - **Disproportionation and oil - blending spread & profit**: It involves the spreads and profits of Asian toluene disproportionation and oil - blending, and the spread between xylene oil - blending and PX production [69][72][76]. - **Inter - regional spread & profit**: It shows the spreads and profits between PX in different regions such as the United States and South Korea [80]. - **Supply and demand**: It presents the operating rates of Chinese and Asian PX, the operating rate of Chinese PTA, and the relationship between PX and PTA prices and processing fees [85]. 3.2 PTA - **Profit**: It includes the spot profits of PTA from crude oil, naphtha, and the theoretical profit of PTA - PX [93][94][95]. - **Supply and demand**: It shows the operating rates of PTA and polyester [96][97]. - **Inventory**: It includes PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts [98][99]. 3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot in East China, coal prices in Inner Mongolia, methanol ex - tank prices in Jiangsu, and Northeast Asian ethylene prices [100]. - **Spread**: It includes the spreads between domestic and foreign markets of ethylene glycol, the spread between East and South China, and the spreads between different regions such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [102][103][108]. - **Profit**: It includes the oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and coal - based profit of ethylene glycol [112][113][115]. - **Supply and demand**: It shows the operating rate of ethylene glycol, the operating rate of polyester, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol [117][118]. 3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It includes the average profit of filament, short - fiber profit, weighted profit of polyester, bottle - chip processing profit, and chip profit [122][123]. - **Supply**: It shows the operating rates of polyester, filament, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, as well as the inventory days of filament and short - fiber [124][125][126]. - **Demand**: It includes the operating rates of pure - polyester yarn, the inventory of pure - polyester yarn finished products and raw materials, the operating rate of polyester - cotton yarn factories, the inventory of Chinese yarn, the operating rate of Chinese grey fabric, the inventory of Chinese grey fabric, and the export data and consumption data of textiles and clothing [128][129][132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip futures have shown upward trends recently. The main reasons include increased gasoline demand leading to higher naphtha demand, multiple device overhauls in the industry, improved macro - atmosphere due to the mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, and changes in supply - demand relationships in different segments of the polyester industry chain. In the short term, these products are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basic Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: From May 9th to May 12th, 2025, most futures contracts in the polyester industry chain showed price increases. For example, the 2506 contract of PX rose from 6626 to 6806, with an increase of 180 and a growth rate of 2.72%. The 2506 contract of PTA increased from 4684 to 4836, with an increase of 152 and a growth rate of 3.25% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices also generally increased. For instance, the PTA spot price rose from 4301 to 4400, with a growth rate of 2.30%. The PF (1.4D) spot price increased from 6440 to 6525, with a growth rate of 1.32% [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of some products changed significantly. The PTA09 main - port basis increased from 149 to 175, with a growth rate of 17.45%. The MEG09 spot basis rose from 78 to 128, with a growth rate of 64.10% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: There were also changes in monthly spreads. The TA9 - 1 monthly spread decreased from 72 to 71, with a decline rate of 5.56%, while the EG9 - 1 monthly spread increased from 3 to 23, with a growth rate of 666.67% [5]. - **Industrial Chain Price Differences and Profits**: Some price differences and profits in the industrial chain changed. The PTA - PX (09 futures contract) price difference increased from 343 to 352, with a growth rate of 2.56%. The PF06 contract processing fee increased from 881 to 1220, with a growth rate of 38.49% [5]. 3.2 Product Analysis - **PX**: The PX futures price continued to rise. Due to increased gasoline demand, the demand for naphtha for gasoline blending increased. Multiple PX device overhauls were planned, and the market atmosphere improved. The PX - naphtha price difference recovered, and PX valuation was upward - repaired. In the short term, PX is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [6]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures price continued to rise, and the basis strengthened. Multiple PTA device overhauls in May led to a significant decline in the operating rate and an upward repair of processing fees. After the May - Day holiday, the polyester operating rate continued to increase, expanding the PTA supply - demand gap. In the short term, PTA is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [7]. - **MEG**: The MEG futures price increased. The port inventory decreased, and the domestic operating rate recovered due to the restart of multiple synthetic - gas - based MEG overhaul devices. The supply increased overall, and the inventory pressure was not large. The polyester operating rate remained high, and the supply - demand relationship was in a tight - balance pattern. In the short term, MEG is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [8][9]. - **Short - fiber**: The prices of polyester raw material futures continued to strengthen, and short - fiber factory quotes increased. Downstream stocking sentiment improved, and the average sales rate reached 132%. After the holiday, both supply and demand increased, and the inventory changed little. Short - fiber prices followed the trend of raw materials [10]. - **Bottle - chip**: The prices of polyester raw material futures continued to strengthen, and the bottle - chip futures price increased. A bottle - chip device restarted, and the supply was stable. Although the downstream market atmosphere weakened, the export efficiency was good, and the overall demand was still supported. The current processing fee valuation was low, and the price followed the trend of raw materials [11].