Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Recently, Sino - US economic and trade consultations in London led to a shift in market expectations from optimism to pessimism, and the crude oil price first strengthened and then retreated, causing the polyester industry chain to rise and then fall [1] - The cost - end oil price fluctuates due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline cracking spreads have limited upside, and the aromatics market has seen changes in exports and short - process device operations. PX supply is recovering, and its price spread has declined [2] - PTA supply is becoming more abundant as devices restart, with a slight inventory reduction in June. However, strong polyester production - cut sentiment affects demand expectations. Polyester demand is weak in the off - season, and the production rates of downstream weaving and texturing are declining [3] - PF has weak fundamentals, and it's difficult to further improve the processing margin. PR has high inventory pressure and a compressed processing interval, facing price pressure [3][4] Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It covers toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profits [24][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][57] PF Detailed Data - It contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [70][72][85] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and price differences [87][89][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is oscillating weakly with news of production cuts. The prices in the industry chain are oscillating downward as filament enterprises continue the third - round production cut plan and bottle - chip production may be further reduced [1] - The cost - side oil price is oscillating due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline and aromatics have limited upside in cracking spreads, and the blending demand is not promising. The supply of PX has recovered, and its spread has declined, but the spot market is still tight. The supply of PTA is becoming more abundant, and the polyester demand is weakening in the off - season [2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Covers figures such as TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Shows the operation rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Includes the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various polyester products, as well as the operation rates of related downstream industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [49][51][62] VII. PF Detailed Data - Covers the load of polyester staple fibers, inventory days, and the operation rates and profits of related yarns [75][83][88] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes the load of polyester bottle - chips, inventory days, processing fees, and export profits [90][92][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of PX both increased, with the floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX weakening. The PXN spread also weakened due to the increase in PX unit operation and the restart of maintenance units. The supply of downstream PTA increased while demand decreased, and the de - stocking of PTA social inventory slowed down. The basis was strong, the monthly spread weakened, and the processing fee was strong first and then weak. In June, with the significant increase in PX operating rate and the restart of most previously maintained PTA units, along with the planned commissioning of a new 2.5 - million - ton PTA unit of Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3, PX will still maintain a tight balance under the pattern of increased supply and demand. The polyester downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with poor efficiency of polyester factories, a decline in operation, and a slowdown in the expected de - stocking rate of PTA in June [7]. - Next week, the expected import arrival volume of ethylene glycol is about 137,000 tons. With weak sales of downstream polyester and limited terminal pick - up at the wharf, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread of ethylene glycol will weaken. In June, the maintenance volume of ethylene glycol remains high, and the import is expected to increase slightly. The downstream polyester has poor efficiency, rising inventory, and a decline in operation. In June, ethylene glycol will show a pattern of both supply and demand decline [7]. - This week, the operation of short - fiber decreased, inventory increased, the operation of terminal weaving, texturing, and dyeing declined, short - fiber production enterprises suffered losses, and the expectation of production reduction was strong. The downstream yarn mills also suffered losses, and the inventory of grey fabrics increased, so the short - fiber processing fee may be under pressure [7]. - This week, the operation of bottle - chip decreased. Although the downstream soft - drink industry is still in the peak season, after the previous centralized procurement by bottle - chip downstream, the bottle - chip downstream is still mainly consuming raw material inventory in the short term, and there were still no tenders from large beverage manufacturers this week. Currently, the overall supply of bottle - chip is abundant, the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is still under pressure [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX & PTA** - Logic analysis: This week, PX supply and demand both increased, with weakened floating price, basis, and monthly spread, and a weakened PXN spread. PTA supply increased while demand decreased, and the de - stocking of social inventory slowed down. In June, PX will maintain a tight balance, and the PTA de - stocking rate is expected to slow down [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - long PX and short PTA; Option - double - selling options [7]. - **MEG** - Logic analysis: Next week, the expected import arrival volume will increase, port inventory is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread will weaken. In June, there will be a pattern of both supply and demand decline [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - sell call options [7]. - **PF** - Logic analysis: This week, operation decreased, inventory increased, and the processing fee may be under pressure [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - double - selling options [7]. - **PR** - Logic analysis: This week, operation decreased, and the processing fee is still under pressure [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - sell call options [7]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - The operation of polyester continued to decline this week, inventory increased, and profits remained at a low level. Except for the relatively good profits of filament, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and chip are all in a loss state [10]. - The operation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing declined [14]. - After the festival, the operation of filament decreased, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Affected by the production reduction of mainstream industry suppliers, the price of filament factories was firm, and the processing fee was stable [16][18]. - The market atmosphere of bottle - chip was weak, and losses intensified. The operation of bottle - chip decreased this week. Although the downstream soft - drink industry is in the peak season, the downstream is still mainly consuming raw material inventory, and there were no tenders from large beverage manufacturers. The overall supply is abundant, and the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak, so the processing fee is still under pressure [19][26]. - Short - fiber is in a loss state, and the expectation of production reduction is strong. The operation of short - fiber decreased this week, with increased inventory, and both short - fiber production enterprises and downstream yarn mills suffered losses [27]. 2.2 PX - The floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX decreased compared with the previous period [29]. - The gasoline inventory increased, and the cracking spread remained weak [31]. - Due to the increase in PX unit operation and the restart of maintenance units, the PXN spread weakened. There are multiple PX unit maintenance and operation adjustment plans in China and Asia (excluding China) [33][35][36]. 2.3 PTA - The de - stocking of PTA social inventory slowed down, the basis was strong, and the monthly spread weakened. As of June 6, the basis of the main port in May was at 09 + 225 for transactions, and the 09 - 01 contract monthly spread was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day before the festival [37]. - The supply of PTA increased while demand decreased, and the processing fee was strong first and then weak. This week, the operation rate of PTA increased by 3% week - on - week, and in June, the monthly average operation rate is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. The output in June is expected to increase by about 1 million tons [39][41]. - The spread between domestic and foreign markets of PTA recovered, and the export expectation decreased. From January to April, the cumulative export of PTA was 1.3364 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. After the commissioning of the new Turkish SASA unit, the export volume of PTA to Turkey decreased significantly. In May, the spread between domestic and foreign markets narrowed, the export profit declined, and the export expectation decreased [42][44]. 2.4 Ethylene Glycol - The expected import arrival volume will increase, the port inventory is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread will weaken. As of June 6, the spot basis of ethylene glycol was at a low - level transaction of a premium of 115 - 118 yuan/ton to the 09 contract; the 9 - 1 contract monthly spread was 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week weakening of 49 yuan/ton [45]. - In June, the maintenance volume of ethylene glycol remains high, and the import is expected to increase slightly. There are multiple domestic and foreign ethylene glycol unit maintenance plans [48][52]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, Brent crude oil, etc. [56]. - **Inter - variety spread & profit**: It includes the spreads and profits between PX and other varieties such as naphtha, BLENT, and MX [58][59][60]. - **Disproportionation and oil - blending spread & profit**: It involves the spreads and profits of Asian toluene disproportionation and oil - blending, and the spread between xylene oil - blending and PX production [69][72][76]. - **Inter - regional spread & profit**: It shows the spreads and profits between PX in different regions such as the United States and South Korea [80]. - **Supply and demand**: It presents the operating rates of Chinese and Asian PX, the operating rate of Chinese PTA, and the relationship between PX and PTA prices and processing fees [85]. 3.2 PTA - **Profit**: It includes the spot profits of PTA from crude oil, naphtha, and the theoretical profit of PTA - PX [93][94][95]. - **Supply and demand**: It shows the operating rates of PTA and polyester [96][97]. - **Inventory**: It includes PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts [98][99]. 3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot in East China, coal prices in Inner Mongolia, methanol ex - tank prices in Jiangsu, and Northeast Asian ethylene prices [100]. - **Spread**: It includes the spreads between domestic and foreign markets of ethylene glycol, the spread between East and South China, and the spreads between different regions such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [102][103][108]. - **Profit**: It includes the oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and coal - based profit of ethylene glycol [112][113][115]. - **Supply and demand**: It shows the operating rate of ethylene glycol, the operating rate of polyester, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol [117][118]. 3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It includes the average profit of filament, short - fiber profit, weighted profit of polyester, bottle - chip processing profit, and chip profit [122][123]. - **Supply**: It shows the operating rates of polyester, filament, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, as well as the inventory days of filament and short - fiber [124][125][126]. - **Demand**: It includes the operating rates of pure - polyester yarn, the inventory of pure - polyester yarn finished products and raw materials, the operating rate of polyester - cotton yarn factories, the inventory of Chinese yarn, the operating rate of Chinese grey fabric, the inventory of Chinese grey fabric, and the export data and consumption data of textiles and clothing [128][129][132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip futures have shown upward trends recently. The main reasons include increased gasoline demand leading to higher naphtha demand, multiple device overhauls in the industry, improved macro - atmosphere due to the mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, and changes in supply - demand relationships in different segments of the polyester industry chain. In the short term, these products are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basic Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: From May 9th to May 12th, 2025, most futures contracts in the polyester industry chain showed price increases. For example, the 2506 contract of PX rose from 6626 to 6806, with an increase of 180 and a growth rate of 2.72%. The 2506 contract of PTA increased from 4684 to 4836, with an increase of 152 and a growth rate of 3.25% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices also generally increased. For instance, the PTA spot price rose from 4301 to 4400, with a growth rate of 2.30%. The PF (1.4D) spot price increased from 6440 to 6525, with a growth rate of 1.32% [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of some products changed significantly. The PTA09 main - port basis increased from 149 to 175, with a growth rate of 17.45%. The MEG09 spot basis rose from 78 to 128, with a growth rate of 64.10% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: There were also changes in monthly spreads. The TA9 - 1 monthly spread decreased from 72 to 71, with a decline rate of 5.56%, while the EG9 - 1 monthly spread increased from 3 to 23, with a growth rate of 666.67% [5]. - **Industrial Chain Price Differences and Profits**: Some price differences and profits in the industrial chain changed. The PTA - PX (09 futures contract) price difference increased from 343 to 352, with a growth rate of 2.56%. The PF06 contract processing fee increased from 881 to 1220, with a growth rate of 38.49% [5]. 3.2 Product Analysis - **PX**: The PX futures price continued to rise. Due to increased gasoline demand, the demand for naphtha for gasoline blending increased. Multiple PX device overhauls were planned, and the market atmosphere improved. The PX - naphtha price difference recovered, and PX valuation was upward - repaired. In the short term, PX is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [6]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures price continued to rise, and the basis strengthened. Multiple PTA device overhauls in May led to a significant decline in the operating rate and an upward repair of processing fees. After the May - Day holiday, the polyester operating rate continued to increase, expanding the PTA supply - demand gap. In the short term, PTA is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [7]. - **MEG**: The MEG futures price increased. The port inventory decreased, and the domestic operating rate recovered due to the restart of multiple synthetic - gas - based MEG overhaul devices. The supply increased overall, and the inventory pressure was not large. The polyester operating rate remained high, and the supply - demand relationship was in a tight - balance pattern. In the short term, MEG is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [8][9]. - **Short - fiber**: The prices of polyester raw material futures continued to strengthen, and short - fiber factory quotes increased. Downstream stocking sentiment improved, and the average sales rate reached 132%. After the holiday, both supply and demand increased, and the inventory changed little. Short - fiber prices followed the trend of raw materials [10]. - **Bottle - chip**: The prices of polyester raw material futures continued to strengthen, and the bottle - chip futures price increased. A bottle - chip device restarted, and the supply was stable. Although the downstream market atmosphere weakened, the export efficiency was good, and the overall demand was still supported. The current processing fee valuation was low, and the price followed the trend of raw materials [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On April 10, the polyester industry chain rebounded across the board, with the main contracts of PX/PTA/PF/PR rising by 5.31%, 4.97%, 5.41%, and 4.11% respectively. The main reason was that Trump halted the reciprocal tariffs that took effect on April 9 and implemented a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on countries that did not take retaliatory actions for trade negotiations [1]. - The compromise on tariff issues led to a significant rebound in risk assets on Wednesday night, with oil prices rebounding about 10% from the low, driving the overall rebound of downstream energy - chemical products. Although direct textile and clothing export orders to the US remained suspended, indirect orders from Southeast Asia resumed shipping on Thursday, and the 90 - day buffer period might increase subsequent rush - export and re - export orders, partially offsetting the negative impact of high tariffs on China [1]. - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs offset some negative demand impacts, but direct textile and clothing export orders to the US remained suspended, and the demand expectation for textiles and clothing was still weak. Attention should be paid to further changes in trade policies [1]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contracts, their basis and inter - period spreads, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - dull natural white basis [9][10][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][31] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][36][37] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures present the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [44][46][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][69][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, be cautious about short - selling PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging. Although the US relaxed the intensity of reciprocal tariffs on other countries, the China - US trade war might further escalate, and the US might threaten other countries to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and semi - finished products. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations in traditional re - export countries such as Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh. In the medium term, trade protection would bring uncertainty to global economic growth, and there was a risk of further decline in oil prices. It is recommended to maintain a light position and be cautious [4][5] - Cross - variety: Go long on MEG and short on PTA - Cross - period: No relevant strategy provided