东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 1.央行：央行公告，2025 年 8 月 22 日，央行以固定利率、数量招标方式开 展了 3612 亿元逆回购操作，期限为 7 天，操作利率为 1.40%，投标量和中 标量均为 3612 亿元。同花顺 iFinD 数据显示，今日有 2380 亿元 7 天期逆 回购到期。（资料来源：同花顺） 5. 美联储：美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上表示，尽管通胀仍受关 注，但就业市场风险上升可能使美联储在 9 月降息。美股三大指数集体收 涨，道指涨 1.89%，本周累涨 1.53%；纳指涨 1.88%，本周累跌 0.58%；标 普 500 指数涨 1.52%，本周累涨 0.27%。其中，道指再创新高，道指、标普 500 指数连涨三周。KBW 银行指数上涨 3.2%，创 2022 年以来新高。大型 科技股普涨，特斯拉涨超 6%，创 2 个月以来最大单日涨幅；英特尔涨超 5%，谷歌、亚马逊涨逾 3%，AMD、Meta 涨超 2%，苹果、英伟达涨超 1%， 微软小幅上涨；奈飞微跌。Opendoor 涨超 39%，创 2023 年 8 月以来新高。 （资料来源：同花顺） 2025 年 ...

证券时报记者 张淑贤 西藏经济发展从"输血"到"造血"的关键跨越中，产业援藏可谓关键一环。各省市、各央企的援藏行动，不仅带来资 金与项目，更带来技术、理念与产业生态，为西藏培育内生发展动力。 "我们入驻后，带动其他的化妆品企业入驻。"林芝喜马拉雅第三极生物科技有限公司工厂总经理张保生透露，目 前林芝已有2家化妆品公司，整个西藏则拥有11家化妆品公司。 刚刚结束援藏任务的中央第十批援藏干部人才，以协调落实166.54亿元援藏资金、实施2900余个项目、打造培育 747个特色品牌，为"造血式"援藏写下生动注脚。 从能源到矿业，从园区到人才，产业援藏正以"授人以渔"的智慧，持续激活西藏经济的"造血"机能。 2022年，西藏矿业联合中国宝武集团另一家子公司，合计投资近60亿元，在西藏扎布耶建设碳酸锂生产线，同时 提取国内较紧缺的钾肥资源。据悉，扎布耶目前已知的锂资源约180万吨，钾资源共生+伴生（保有控制+推断资源 量）约为1500万吨。 "在产业帮扶方面，西藏矿业全面推动当地乡村地区经济发展。"张金涛称，"扎布耶项目开发时，公司运输和劳务 等方面的业务均委托给当地公司，三年时间里，当地农民增收接近6000万元。" ...

【导读】美股全线收涨，道指创历史新高；中概股普遍上涨；费城金银指数创历史新高 美东时间8月22日周五，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指创历史新高。鲍威尔讲话推动大型科技股上涨，特斯拉涨超6%，Meta、Alphabet、亚马逊涨超2%。 原油小幅收涨，费城金银指数继续创历史新高。 道指创历史新高 截至收盘，道指大涨846.24点，涨幅为1.89%，报45631.74点，创历史新高，标普500指数涨1.52%，报6466.91点，纳指涨1.88%，报21496.53点。 本周，道指涨1.53%，标普500指数涨0.27%，纳指跌0.58%。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，称风险平衡似乎正在发生变化，当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。随着政策处于 紧缩区域，这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要调整政策立场。 大型科技股全线上涨，特斯拉涨超6%，谷歌涨逾3%，亚马逊涨超3%，脸书涨逾2%，英伟达涨超1%，苹果涨逾1%，微软涨0.59%。 | TAMAMA科技指数 | 18799.46 | 2.05% | | --- | --- | --- | | 8884057 | | | | 苹果(APPLE ...

【导读】美股全线收涨，道指创历史新高；中概股普遍上涨；费城金银指数创历史新高 美东时间 8 月 22 日周五，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指创历史新高。鲍威尔讲话推动大型 科技股上涨，特斯拉涨超 6%，Meta 、 Alphabet 、亚马逊涨超 2% 。原油小幅收涨，费城 金银指数继续创历史新高。 道指创历史新高 截至收盘， 道指大涨846.24点，涨幅为1.89% ，报 45631.74 点，创历史新高，标普 500 指数 涨 1.52% ，报 6466.91 点，纳指涨 1.88% ，报 21496.53 点。 本周，道指涨 1.53% ，标普 500 指数涨 0.27% ，纳指跌 0.58% 。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上 发表重磅讲话 ，称风险平衡似乎正在发生变化， 当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。随着政策处于紧缩区域，这种风险平衡的转 变可能意味着需要调整政策立场。 鲍威尔讲话后，交易员加大对美联储 9 月降息的押注，根据 CME FedWatch 工具最新数 据，市场预计 9 月会议降息 25 个基点的概率约为 91% 。 美联储哈马克表示，听说鲍威尔对政策前景持 " 开放态度 ...

➢ 焦煤价格反弹，下半年公司业绩有望好转。据焦煤在线数据，25Q2 淮北焦 精煤、肥精煤长协价格平稳运行，进入三季度以来，7 月初分别下调 100 元/吨、 131 元/吨，而后伴随炼焦煤价格持续反弹，8 月初长协价格分别上调 120 元/ 吨、110 元/吨。我们预计后续伴随"限超产"及产能核减政策落地，供给有效缩 量将助力煤价上涨，从而带动公司业绩反弹。 ➢ 25H1 电力业务权益净利润同比增厚，剥离亏损电力资产。25H1，公司电 力业务实现权益净利润 2194.69 万元，同比+48.7%，其参控股的 5 个电厂中仅 钱营孜发电实现盈利，贡献权益净利润 3719.94 万元。因恒力电业、新源热电、 创元发电能耗环保不达标、碳履约成本逐年增加及生产经营持续亏损，公司拟关 停上述公司下的低热值火电机组，并将恒力电业、新源热电解散注销，创元发电 保留主体开展新能源业务。上述机组关停将减少公司火电装机容量 66MW，权 益 装 机 容 量 53MW ， 截 至 25H1 末 三 家 公 司 净 资 产 规 模 分 别 为 306.01/16514.32/3655.32 万元，公司预计关停短期对生产经营不会产生较 ...

25Q2 利润同环比下滑，关注石化"反内卷" 2025 年 08 月 22 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 8 月 21 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025 年上半年， 公司实现营业收入 14090.5 亿元，同比下降 10.6%；实现归母净利润 214.8 亿 元，同比下降 39.8%；实现扣非归母净利润 212.2 亿元，同比下降 40.4%。 ➢ 25Q2 归母净利润同环比下滑，公司计划分红 49.7%，A/H 股息率为 1.5%/2.0%。25Q2，公司实现营业收入 6737.0 亿元，同比下降 14.3%、环比 下降 8.4%；实现归母净利润 82.2 亿元，同比下降 52.7%、环比下降 38.0%；实 现扣非归母净利润 79.9 亿元，同比下降 54.1%、环比下降 39.6%，利润下滑主 因原油和产品价格和价差下滑、库存减利。公司拟派发现金股利 0.088 元/股， 合计 106.7 亿元，分红率 49.7%，以 2025 年 8 月 21 日收盘价计算，A 股息率 为 1.5%，H 股股息率为 2.0%。 ➢ 勘探及开发：天然气价稳量增，原油价跌量稳。25H1，公司油气当量产量 26 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market has shown a "N" shaped trend this year, with a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds re-emerging as market dynamics shift [1][25] - The bond market's main narrative has changed, indicating that current market behavior is driven more by risk appetite and asset reallocation rather than fundamental or liquidity factors [25][26] - The "look at stocks, act on bonds" strategy may continue in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize in the range of 1.75%-1.80% [1][28] Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, commercial banks reported a net profit of 1.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%, but with signs of marginal improvement compared to the first quarter [3] - City commercial banks showed the most significant performance improvement, with a total profit of 176.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10% but a notable increase in growth rate [3] - The outlook for the banking sector suggests that net interest margins may stabilize in the short term due to regulatory controls on deposit renewals and interbank rates [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Baiyunshan (600332) achieved a revenue of 41.835 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, with a net profit of 2.516 billion yuan, down 1.31% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its health product segment and enhancing its international market presence, with significant growth in overseas revenue [6][9] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 due to increased competition and insufficient demand, lowering expected revenues to 78.013 billion yuan and 81.185 billion yuan respectively [9] Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - Kunlun Energy (00135) reported a revenue of 97.543 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, with a total gas sales volume growth of 10.05% [42][43] - The company's LNG processing and transportation segment performed well, achieving record profitability despite a slight decrease in revenue [43][44] - The outlook for the energy sector remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in gas sales and operational efficiency improvements [43][44] Group 5: Retail and Consumer Goods - Xiaoshangcheng (600415) reported a revenue of 7.713 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, with a net profit growth of 16.78% [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its trade services and has successfully completed trials for various consumer goods, indicating strong potential for future growth [10] - The outlook for the retail sector is optimistic, with expectations for continued growth driven by new market openings and the Belt and Road Initiative [10]

Overall Investment Recommendations - The report provides investment strategies for various commodities and financial products, including stocks, bonds, and multiple futures contracts [1]. Stock Index Futures - The A-share market had a narrow - range oscillation on Tuesday, with the North - Securities 50 reaching a new high. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2.64 trillion yuan but remained above 2 trillion. The comprehensive and communication industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses [1]. - Stock index futures adjusted following the spot index, with a larger decline in futures than in the spot, and the basis continued to widen. Although there is some resistance to short - term upward movement as the market breaks previous highs, the capital side remains active, and the trading enthusiasm continues to rise. As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, achieving six consecutive increases. Long - term positive factors such as the transfer of household deposits and the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market showed signs of stabilization and a slight rebound, with the T - contract performing weakly. The domestic market had a net capital injection, but due to the tax period, the cost of funds continued to rise. Data was scarce, and the expectation of policy intensification remained optimistic [1]. - Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and the impact of the domestic monetary policy report, the expectation is relatively cautious. The stock - bond seesaw effect is still significant, and the market's risk appetite remains optimistic. The bond market is more sensitive to negative news. Although the bond market's recent decline was rapid, new positive factors are limited, and the upward pressure may continue. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [1]. Commodity Futures Basic Metals - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations remain optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is watching the Fed's stance at the global central bank meeting. The US has expanded the scope of aluminum tariff increases, which has a limited impact on domestic exports. Alumina's over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened significantly, with continuous upward pressure on prices. For Shanghai aluminum, the short - term demand expectation is weak, but the medium - term support is clear [3]. - **Copper**: The domestic economic data is mixed, but policy expectations are optimistic. Overseas tariffs have weakened, and the market is focused on the Fed's attitude. The smelting processing fee is slowly rebounding but remains negative, and the global copper - mine supply shortage persists. Although domestic and overseas refined copper production continues to grow, and there are positive expectations for consumption, the short - term upward momentum is limited, and the price will continue to oscillate. However, in the medium - term, the upward trend is unchanged [3]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is sufficient, and port inventories are accumulating. Although Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mining, the ore price is still supported. The production capacity at the smelting end is abundant, and the trading is dull. Refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory - accumulation trend continues. As the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cools, the nickel price has low volatility, with resistance from over - supply and support from potential ore - supply issues. Selling call options is a relatively favorable strategy [3][4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led some funds to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The API weekly data showed a decline in US crude - oil inventories, but the market reaction was muted. As the peak consumption season for the crude - oil market is ending, the expectation of supply over - capacity is strengthening, and the short - term positive factors are lacking. The oil price will continue to be weak [5]. - **Methanol**: This week, the signing volume of northwest sample enterprises reached the lowest level since May, and the futures price dropped rapidly, reducing the downstream's purchasing willingness. Although there are many new maintenance devices, and the factory operating rate is low, providing support for the spot price, as the negative impact of increased arrivals is gradually released, the further decline space for futures is limited [7]. - **Polyolefins**: Recently, there have been more new maintenance devices for PE, and its operating rate is at a medium level, while PP's maintenance devices have restarted, and its operating rate has returned to a high level. Considering production and new capacity, PE's supply pressure is lower than PP's, and PE's demand is also better. It is recommended to hold a long position in the L - PP spread [7]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The over - supply situation is obvious, with daily production slightly decreasing to 11.07 million tons, and the far - reaching energy's second - phase device may be put into operation in September, intensifying the over - supply. It is recommended to short the 01 contract. For float glass, real - estate sales and completion are weak, and although the sales - to - production ratio in some regions has increased, without effective supply - side constraints, the fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy [5]. - **Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, after the coal - mine production self - inspection, the raw - coal output is still low, and the inventory - reduction rate has slowed down. The environmental protection restrictions on steel and coking enterprises have restricted demand, and the coal price is under pressure. For coke, some coking enterprises have received production - restriction notices, and steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region also have production - reduction expectations. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the price will oscillate and decline [5]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Domestically, there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the market's expectation for the new - cotton purchase price is pessimistic. Overseas, the USDA August report adjusted the supply and demand for the 2025/2026 season, and the ending inventory decreased. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, and the downstream industry has slightly improved. The market is watching whether the downstream will continue to improve during the traditional peak season [7]. - **Rubber**: The automotive market benefits from policy support, and tire - enterprise operating rates are good. Although the ANRPC has entered the traditional production - increasing season, the new - rubber output rate is lower than expected, and the raw - material price in the production area is firm. The supply - demand structure of natural rubber is gradually improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the rubber price [7]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The anti - involution policy has no clear implementation signal, and the policy - intensity expectation is decreasing. The fundamentals of rebar are showing more signs of weakening. Regional and phased production restrictions have limited impact on supply, and the crude - steel reduction policy has not been implemented. Steel mills' profits are acceptable, and production is expected to resume after the military - parade production restrictions end. Real - estate data is weak across the board, and the inventory of rebar has started to accumulate rapidly. It is recommended to hold a short position in the 01 contract and pay attention to the support at around 3100 [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the anti - involution policy has no clear signal, and the fundamentals of steel products are weakening. The military - parade production restrictions in the north mainly affected sintering and rolling processes, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is likely to resume after the restrictions end. The high coil - to - rebar spread may prompt the transfer of molten iron from rebar to hot - rolled coil. Although the current demand for plates is more resilient than that for construction steel, the inventory - accumulation rate of plates has also accelerated. The downward pressure on the hot - rolled coil price is increasing, and the near - term contract is weaker than the far - term one [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The military - parade production restrictions mainly affected sintering and rolling, and the actual implementation depends on weather conditions. Steel mills' profits are good, and production is expected to resume after the restrictions end. However, the weakening of the steel fundamentals may put pressure on the iron - ore price. It is expected that the iron - ore price will follow the steel price, with the 01 - contract price ranging from 750 to 810. It is recommended to short at high prices within this range [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flow. It also provides updates on crop conditions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and regulatory developments. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also given [1]. 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions. CNF quotes and relevant information for imported soybeans are also included [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - US soybean - producing states will have below - normal temperatures and mostly near - to above - median precipitation from August 24th to 28th. Cool and dry weather is expected in the US Midwest in late August, with a 20 - 40 mm rain deficit in 10 - 15 days, and a possible warm and moderately rainy pattern in early September [3][5]. 国际供需 - Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to stay above 4300 ringgit. Pro Farmer estimates soybean pod numbers in Ohio and South Dakota. USDA reports soybean exports, and the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting area may increase by 1.2% - 2.9%. Brazilian 8 - month soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to rise. A Brazilian regulatory body plans to investigate the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". EU 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed are lower than last year. Australian rapeseed exports have declined, and the Baltic Dry Index has dropped [7][9][12]. 国内供需 - On August 19th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 170% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill startup rate dropped slightly. China's refined edible vegetable oil production in July increased by 4.0% year - on - year. National soybean oil port inventory increased. China's feed production in July decreased slightly from the previous month but increased by 5.95% year - on - year. Agricultural product prices showed some changes [13][14]. 04 Macro要闻 国际要闻 - US retail sales, new home construction, and API crude oil inventory data are reported. The euro - zone's current account balance increased. Malaysia's economic growth may slow due to US tariffs [15]. 国内要闻 - The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased on August 19th. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 4657 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. China's fiscal revenue from January to July increased slightly year - on - year, and securities transaction stamp duty increased significantly [17]. 05资金流向 - On August 19th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 157.57 billion yuan, with 27.53 billion yuan from commodity futures and 130.04 billion yuan from stock - index futures. Agricultural product futures had a net inflow, while other sectors had net outflows [19][20]. 06套利跟踪 No relevant information provided.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous growth in net profit excluding non-recurring items, with stable expansion across its business segments. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 8.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.17%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 2.92% to 8.11 billion yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its LNG profitability and rapidly growing its energy services profits. In H1 2025, the LNG and LPG segments contributed 50.15 billion yuan and 42.81 billion yuan to revenue, respectively, accounting for 48.09% and 41.05% of total revenue [3]. - The company is expanding its LNG market and increasing LPG turnover capacity through strategic initiatives, including the construction of a 50,000-ton liquefied hydrocarbon terminal and acquisitions to enhance operational capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 104.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.45% year-on-year. The operating income for Q2 2025 was 49.44 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.20% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross profit margins for LNG and LPG were 13.56% and 6.86%, respectively, with significant growth in the gross profit of energy logistics and technical services, which increased by 39.16% year-on-year [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 30.90% and a cash dividend of 2.66 billion yuan for H1 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.35%. The fixed cash dividend commitment for 2025 is set at 8.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a projected yield of 4.23% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see its net profit attributable to shareholders grow to 17.44 billion yuan in 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.62 yuan. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 12 times based on the closing price on August 18, 2025 [5][6].