Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in the financial sector has transitioned from pilot testing to large-scale implementation and ecological collaboration, becoming a key driver for the transformation and upgrading of the industry [1][2] - AI technology is deeply embedded in the entire financial business chain, enhancing risk prevention, investment decision-making, customer service, and operational management [1] - The future will see a closer integration of AI technology with industry scenarios, extending its application to key sectors such as industry, healthcare, and finance, highlighting its role as a core engine for industrial upgrading [1] Group 1 - AI will enhance the quality and efficiency of financial services by optimizing processes and enabling intelligent decision-making, shifting the industry focus from scale competition to quality competition [1] - AI will expand the boundaries of financial services, addressing challenges in inclusive finance, green finance, and digital finance, allowing for more precise and widespread coverage of key areas and weak links in the real economy [1] Group 2 - AI will give rise to new financial business formats and models, such as smart investment advisory, digital employees, and cross-border intelligent finance, continuously enriching and improving the financial ecosystem [2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度延续回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 12 月 27 日）为 4.9%，与上周修订值 4.8%略有回 升，或表征经济增长景气有所回暖。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周涨跌互现。 从需求端来看，外需仍是最强变量，基建实物工作量小幅改善。 从价格端来看，消费品价格涨跌互现，工业品价格基本持平。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度 ...

最新发声。 12月27日，在中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会上，原银监会主席、证监会原主席尚福林，第十三届全国 政协经济委员会副主任杨伟民，清华大学经济管理学院院长白重恩，中国社会科学院学部委员高培勇等 专家学者就当前多个宏观经济热点发表见解。 4.政策不仅要聚焦扩大需求、优化供给，也要优化分配，形成供给、需求、分配三位一体、方向一致的 系统性政策。 来看会上重要观点： 1. 迈向"十五五"，加快建设金融强国，是质的有效提升和量的合理增长有机统一，是综合性、系统性、 引领性的跃升。 2. 保持制造业合理比重包含两层含义：一是我国制造业占GDP的比重保持在合理水平；二是我国制造业 占全球制造业比重能够保持基本稳定。 3. 凝聚新质生产力的新制造，不再是过去烟囱林立、管道密集、劳动密集的产业，而是科技创新与产 业、产品创新"前店后厂"式，研发人员密集，知识产权密集的制造业，新制造恰恰应该布局在中心城市 及其城市群地区，因为研发人员主要在这里。 其中，在金融体制改革层面，要构建与中国式现代化相匹配的"六大支柱"体系。要完善中央银行制度， 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，畅通货币政策传导机制 ...

12月27日，在中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会上，原银监会主席、证监会原主席尚福林，第十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任杨伟民，清 华大学经济管理学院院长白重恩，中国社会科学院学部委员高培勇等专家学者就当前多个宏观经济热点发表见解。 来看会上重要观点： 1. 迈向"十五五"，加快建设金融强国，是质的有效提升和量的合理增长有机统一，是综合性、系统性、引领性的跃升。 2. 保持制造业合理比重包含两层含义：一是我国制造业占GDP的比重保持在合理水平；二是我国制造业占全球制造业比重能够保持基本 稳定。 3. 凝聚新质生产力的新制造，不再是过去烟囱林立、管道密集、劳动密集的产业，而是科技创新与产业、产品创新"前店后厂"式，研发 人员密集，知识产权密集的制造业，新制造恰恰应该布局在中心城市及其城市群地区，因为研发人员主要在这里。 4.政策不仅要聚焦扩大需求、优化供给，也要优化分配，形成供给、需求、分配三位一体、方向一致的系统性政策。 5. 用国债置换地方政府债务，将还本付息的压力从地方转移到中央，这样可以修复地方政府的资产负债表，改善其现金流，推动经济增 长，为改革创造条件。 全面发力建设金融强国 尚福林指出，"十四五" ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has surpassed the important threshold of 7.00, with onshore RMB also breaking 7.01, indicating a potential for further appreciation of the RMB [2] - The report anticipates a 4-5% annualized appreciation of the RMB, which will not adversely affect China's export competitiveness [2] - Factors such as the peak in foreign exchange settlements and improved US-China trade relations are expected to support the RMB's appreciation, enhancing foreign investment interest in RMB assets [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The total government bond supply for 2025 is projected to reach 14.4 trillion, with both national and local bonds nearing 99% supply completion as of December 25, 2025 [3] - The market is currently focused on the supply-demand dynamics of interest rate bonds and the structure of bond issuance [3] - The report highlights the potential for REITs to recover from recent price declines, with the REITs total return index having dropped 4.28% recently but showing signs of recovery [4] Group 3: Technology Sector - Insights from the SEMICON Japan conference indicate three key investment opportunities for 2026: AI-driven storage cycles, semiconductor process upgrades, and price increases in technology commodities [5] - There is significant debate among investors regarding the competitive positioning of OpenAI against Google and the sustainability of NAND price increases [5] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The report suggests that high metal prices may drive exploration and service companies to transition towards mining development, utilizing models such as equity participation and EPC+O [6] - This transition is expected to be significant as smaller mining owners seek external support for development due to limited capital and technical capabilities [6] Group 5: Banking Sector Dynamics - A wave of deposit maturities is anticipated, with approximately 50 trillion in term deposits maturing in the coming year, primarily concentrated in the 2-5 year range [8] - This situation is expected to alleviate pressure on banks' net interest margins but may lead to increased volatility in the funding landscape [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The US economy is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, supported by fiscal policies during the midterm election year, with a projected GDP growth of 2.4% and CPI inflation around 2.5% [1][7][55] - The K-shaped economic recovery in the US is likely to continue, with a concentration of growth in the "AI + finance" sectors, while the consumer sector shows signs of low-quality growth [1][10][55] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a dovish stance, potentially lowering interest rates to around 3% [1][51][55] Group 2: Chinese Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth is projected to reach 4.8% in 2026, characterized by stable external demand, improved internal demand, and price recovery [2][4][82] - The fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a target deficit rate of 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion yuan, and a total fiscal arrangement of 43 trillion yuan [2][86][87] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, with a potential reduction in the OMO rate to 1.3% and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [3][92][93] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth in China is expected to recover to 1.8%, driven by increased fiscal spending and the commencement of major projects [2][5][86] - Retail sales growth is projected to rise to 4.5%, supported by strong consumer policies [2][5][86] - The capital market outlook suggests a bullish trend for the stock market, with A-shares expected to continue upward momentum, while the bond market may experience fluctuations [3][6]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets are entering a typical year-end trading rhythm, with liquidity tightening and a mixed sentiment of risk appetite and safe-haven demand [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed resilience, rising over 200 points on Monday, with financial and materials sectors leading the performance [1][3] - The market is expected to finish the year on a stable and slightly positive note, despite the holiday trading period [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold continues to serve as a core asset in the macro hedging system, maintaining a strong performance with a nearly 70% increase year-to-date, marking one of the strongest annual performances since the late 1970s [2] - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing uncertainties in tariff policies, ongoing central bank purchases, and strong demand from ETFs and physical markets as key supports for the current gold bull market [2] - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to remain solid as long as quarterly demand stays above critical levels, with no signs of a slowdown in central bank and long-term fund allocations [2] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to gain momentum ahead of the holidays, with AI-related stocks attracting attention and financial and materials sectors showing strong performance [3] - The market is attempting to approach phase highs within a limited year-end trading window, but liquidity constraints are becoming more apparent [3] - Investors are actively reducing risk exposure while participating in year-end trading, preparing for the next phase of market conditions [3] Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent inflation data has not provided clear guidance, with some key components missing due to government shutdowns, leading to cautious market sentiment regarding CPI reports [4] - Expectations for further rate cuts remain, but pricing of policy paths has slowed, with the Fed likely to maintain a reserved stance on the inflation report [4] - Upcoming ADP employment and GDP data are viewed as the last significant macro indicators before the holidays, with current ADP employment numbers indicating a weak labor market trend [4] Group 5: Interest Rates and Bond Market - Traders are increasing bullish positions on U.S. Treasuries, betting on a decline in 10-year Treasury yields to around 4%, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and policy shifts [5] - Large asset management firms are signaling a defensive stance by increasing cash holdings and reducing leverage, indicating heightened caution towards high valuation environments and geopolitical risks [5] - The market is characterized by a complex structure of rising risk appetite and safe-haven demand, emphasizing the importance of position management and rhythm control [5] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The current global market dynamics are shaped by year-end risk appetite, policy uncertainties, and geopolitical factors [6] - U.S. stocks are supported by a rate-cut environment and year-end sentiment, while gold continues to operate within historical high ranges due to safe-haven demand and structural allocation forces [6] - The market is likely to maintain a structurally volatile pattern until key data and policy paths become clearer, with the sustainability of asset price trends needing further validation through upcoming events [6]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes a positive outlook for China's economy, projecting a growth rate of around 5% for 2025, with the total economic output expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - China will continue to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2] - The total government bond issuance for 2025 is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate expected to rise to around 4% [2][3] - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth, with tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments being utilized flexibly [3][4] Group 2: Income and Employment - A series of measures to promote income growth and stabilize employment are expected in 2026, including the implementation of a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income [5][6] - The government aims to enhance the basic pension for residents and improve consumption capacity, with a focus on ensuring that income growth aligns with economic growth [6][8] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority for 2026, with a shift from goods consumption to a balanced focus on both goods and service consumption [9] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with a focus on infrastructure and social welfare projects, while also encouraging private investment in high-tech and service sectors [10][11][12] - The government plans to enhance investment in areas such as urban renewal, healthcare, and childcare, while also leveraging government funds to stimulate private sector investment [11][12]

Xml [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 证券研究报告 快慢变量分野，新老资产收敛：2026 年大类资产展望 | [Table_Title] [Tabl e_Author 分析师：] | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003809 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈礼清并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 12025 年大类资产在"叙事抱团"下，呈现新老资产极致分化。全年来看，黄金领涨大类资产，位于风险收益 比顶端。全球股强债弱，股市新兴强于发达。商品中有色亮眼，显著领跑黑色与原油。从资产轮动来看，上 半年反复反转 ...

为稳定经济大盘提供支撑 中国基金报：中央经济工作会议释放出哪些积极信号？你比较关注哪些内容？ 【导读】公募首席解读中央经济工作会议精神：为"十五五"开局定向领航推动经济行稳致远 中国基金报记者 李树超 曹雯璟 张玲 王思文 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当 前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。 如何看待当前中国经济形势？明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释 放出怎样的信号？八项重点任务蕴含怎样的发展新机遇？对此，中国基金报采访了 招商基金 研究部首席经济学家李湛、创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春、金鹰基金首席经济学家兼权 益研究部基金经理杨刚、华夏基金首席策略分析师轩伟、富国基金首席策略分析师马全胜、 博时基金首席权益策略分析师陈显顺和财通基金首席策略师王磊 。 释放多重积极信号 李湛： 会议释放了三大积极信号：一是政策延续性强，明确 " 更加积极的财政政策 + 适度宽 松的货币政策 " ，稳预期效果显著；二是聚焦高质量发展， " 稳中求进、提质增效 " 凸显质 效优先，适配 " 十五五 " 开局需求；三是精准发力重点领域， ...