Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Valuation is high, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Market sentiment is causing disturbances, and the futures prices are experiencing wide fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between long and short positions on the futures market, and investors should be vigilant about position risks [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal: Events are fermenting, and the prices are fluctuating at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price is fluctuating repeatedly [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.81%. The previous day's position was 636,674 lots, a decrease of 29,907 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a weak bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.44%. For HC2605, it was 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.48%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil. There were also data on steel social inventory, production of key steel enterprises, and relevant policies and import data [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13][14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, there were price changes in different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions. In December 2025, Brazil's manganese ore exports decreased significantly [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For JM2605, the previous day's closing price was 1,190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.2%. For J2605, it was 1,765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.5%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 7, there were CCI metallurgical coal index data. This week, the daily production of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines increased, and there were changes in the number of shutdown and复产 mines [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of different log futures contracts. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 9 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：股指分化持续 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：国内"再通胀"叙事稍有生变 4 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力仍存 盘面整体回落 5 | | --- | | 白糖：大宗商品波动加大，国内外糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂整体震荡运行 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米持续拍卖，现货稳定 7 | | 生猪：供应压力仍存 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求有所改善，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 11 | | 钢材：钢材转向累库，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：市场情绪降温，注意回调风险 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价高位偏空对待 14 | | 铁合金：市场情绪整体降温，短期震荡运行 15 | | 金银：彭博指数开启调整 | 金银宽幅震荡 16 | | --- | --- | | 铂钯：BCOM | 调整权重 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging on the trading floor) [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment is fluctuating, and different steel - related products have different fundamentals and price trends. Short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and market sentiment, and there may be significant fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production increased slightly, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory decreased slowly with pressure remaining [2] - Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, the reduction in blast furnace production has slowed down significantly, and molten iron production has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, domestic demand was generally weak, and steel exports remained at a high level [2] - The optimistic sentiment in the commodity market has cooled, the futures prices are under pressure to decline, and the fluctuations have intensified significantly. It is expected that there will still be fluctuations in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today, the iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. On the supply side, global shipments declined seasonally, while domestic arrivals increased month - on - month. Considering the strong overseas shipments in the early stage, it is expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and port inventory continues to increase [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Steel mill profitability has improved recently, and molten iron production has stabilized at a low level, but there will be no obvious resumption of production in the short term. Steel mill inventories of imported ore have increased but are still at a low level, and there is still a certain rigid restocking demand in the future [3] - The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations in the future [3] Coke - The intraday coke price rose and then declined. The fifth round of price cuts was suspended. Coking profits are average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly. Currently, downstream customers are making small - scale on - demand purchases, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low, and the demand for raw materials is still resilient. Although the profit level of steel has been slightly repaired, the pressure on raw material prices is still strong [4] - The coke futures price is at a premium. After the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game on the trading floor has intensified [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price rose and then declined. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the negative pressure on prices decreased slightly. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and completion of annual production tasks [5] - Spot auction transactions were acceptable, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly [5] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low, and the demand for raw materials is still resilient. Although the profit level of steel has been slightly repaired, the pressure on raw material prices is still strong [5] - The coke futures price is at a premium, and the coking coal futures price is at a discount. After the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game on the trading floor has intensified [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday silicomanganese price declined significantly. Driven by the rebound of the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The smelting end of silicomanganese pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace [6] - On the demand side, molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly, and the inventory of silicomanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" [6] - It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday ferrosilicon price declined significantly. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand decreased to more than 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand is still resilient [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution". It is recommended to buy on dips [7]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with all falling over 1%. Nickel led the drop with a 6.14% decrease, while copper, aluminum, and lead fell over 2% with copper down 2.76%, aluminum down 2.89%, and lead down 2.01% [1] - Lithium carbonate rose by 2.46%, while industrial silicon fell by 4.53%. Polycrystalline silicon hit a limit down with a 9% drop, priced at 53,610 yuan/ton [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel fell by 0.98% and iron ore by 0.37%, while other varieties saw slight increases, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both rising under 1% [1] - Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down 0.48% and silver down 2.27%. Domestic gold fell by 0.73% and silver by 5.9% [1][2] Macro Environment - The central bank conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, with a bid amount of 99 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.70, with recent employment data indicating a drop in job vacancies, raising expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] Oil Market - Both domestic oil prices increased, with U.S. oil rising by 0.46% and Brent oil by 0.48%. The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, supporting oil prices [10]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面大幅上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3187 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 震荡偏强 | | | 上涨 76 元/吨，涨幅为 2.44%，持仓增加 17.8 万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 上涨 50 元/吨至 2980 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 60 元/吨至 3260 元/吨，全国建材成交量 12.53 | | | | 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回升 1.73 万吨至 357.93 万吨，社库下降 4.32 万吨至 454.8 万吨， | | | | 厂库增加 6.97 万吨至 300.45 万吨，建材表需回落 14.79 万吨至 355.28 万吨。建材产量继续小幅回升，库 | | | | 存由降转增，表需回落，数据表现偏中性。受供应端消息影响，昨日煤焦盘面价格出现涨停，铁矿石盘面 | | | | 也大幅上涨，对螺纹走势形成较强提振。从供需看螺纹矛盾不大 ...

本系列分为：一、基本金属篇；二、黑色金属篇；三、能源化工品种篇；四、农产品软商品篇。 本篇为系列第二篇，覆盖黑色金属品种。 加入交易理想国知识星球获取完整版PDF报告及精简版EXCEL 整理 | 对冲研投编辑组 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新年伊始，我们搜集整理了31家机构对于大宗商品市场2026 年的策略展望，从机构一致看多，一致看空，分期显著以及其他中性四个角度，覆盖了有色、 黑色、能源、化工、农产品、软商品等多个商品板块47个交易品种，就2026年大宗商品机会与风险进行分析，希望对大家新一年的交易有所帮助。 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（一） | | 一致着空品种 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 机构观点高度统一看跌，核心逻辑围绕 "供应过剩" 或 "供需双弱、需求主导下行"。 | | | 品种 | 代表性机构观点 | 核心逻辑 | | | 偏空/区间下行:永安期货(供应过剩、估值下移)、一德期货(区间下 | | | | 行,偏空）、紫金天风期货(区间下行,偏空）、中金公司(供应扩张周 | 供应大幅扩张,需求增长乏力。2 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 沪指录得 14 连阳，美国 ADP 就业温和增长 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-08 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） ADP 就业温和增长 最新的 ADP 就业温和增长，表明劳动力市场目前维持趋势降低 但是温和的状态，美元指数震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国 12 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 为 54.4 综 金价震荡下跌，贵金属板块回调，资金在大宗商品板块间发生 切换，也在为 Bloomberg 商品指数 8-14 日的年度权重调整做准 备，25 年贵金属涨幅可观，影响不容忽视。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 沪指录得 14 连阳 报 A 股继续放量上涨，市场担忧快速拉升后，是否会迎来监管"降 温"。我们认为对此不必过于担忧，目前国内流动性充沛与多 头格局维持的情况下，市场仍有较强的动力。 黑色金属（动力煤） 1 月 7 日国际市场动力煤价格稳中偏强运行 榆林方面再度传出产能核减消息，预计煤矿部分产能加速淘汰。 但考虑 2026 年仍有新增煤矿投产，且需求端较为疲软，预计整 体供应端变化不大。煤价预计在 1 月份保持平稳。 有色金属（铜） BMI 预测：2026 ...

周二期现价格窄幅波动,成交持平,现货体感清淡。宏观层面,新驱动和消息并不多,近期大宗商品表现不算差,汇率升值 可能会带来人民币资产的配置优势,观察商品结构性机会的延续,而在这种环境中,黑色板块需要等待新驱动的形成和资金 的入场。产业层面,五材结构表现维持供需两弱,但铁水产量边际上出现持稳回升,钢材产量回落对炉料造成的负面压力边 际上是弱化的;五材中板材去库压力比较突出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿,1月份之 后铁水产量回升的确定性增加,产业端会有一些适当补库的行为,来释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。目前产业 矛盾不突出,宏观和市场风偏略好,策略上单边可以震荡思路对待,1月之后市场资金或更充裕,有利于期现头寸入场, 卷期现止套仍可滚动操作。 【硅铁锰硅】情绪转暖,双硅向上 | HE SECHEN | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2026/01/07 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

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特朗普考虑动用美军夺取格陵兰岛 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-07 日度报告——综合晨报 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 白宫：特朗普考虑动用美军夺取格陵兰岛 白宫表态特朗普考虑动用武力夺取格陵兰岛，全球地缘风险潜 在继续上升，美元指数短期震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储官员米兰：预计数据将支持进一步降息 综 金价延续涨势，贵金属其他板块以及有色金属大涨，委内瑞拉 局势动荡强化了市场对于逆全球化的交易逻辑，资金对大宗商 品的做多意愿增加。美国推进收购格林兰岛加剧避险情绪。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 央行：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策 报 A 股开年极其强势，沪指突破去年高点。市场进入多头行情中， 题材热点频出。展望后市，成交量依然是关键的衡量指标。短 期内仍建议多头持有。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 邯郸市解除重污染天气应急响应 随着钢厂检修暂歇，铁水产量小幅提升，对成材库存仍会形成 一定压力，出口的变化也需要关注。不过由于矛盾积累不够充 分，市场情绪变化较大，短期预计仍会延续区间震荡格局。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 磷酸铁锂新年度价格谈判首批落地 整体市场情绪对利多信息更为敏感，盘面 ...