国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 | liuyuwu2@gtht.com | | 樊园园 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 | fanyuanyuan@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：地产预期回暖，钢价小幅上涨 2、铁矿观点：低估值强预期，矿价小幅反弹 3、煤焦观点：仓单扰动 ...

| 张银 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018397 zhangyin023941@gtjas.com | | --- | | 目录 | | 1. 市场综述 3 | | 2. 市场数据 6 | | 2.1 市场概览 6 | | 2.2 玉米期权 7 | | 2.3 豆粕期权 7 | | 2.4 菜粕期权 8 | | 2.5 棕榈油期权 8 | | 2.6 豆油期权 9 | | 2.7 菜籽油期权 9 | | 2.8 花生期权 10 | | 2.9 黄大豆 1 号期权 10 | | 2.10 黄大豆 2 号期权 11 | | 2.11 乙二醇期权 11 | | 2.12 苯乙烯期权 12 | | 2.13 白糖期权 12 | | 2.14 棉花期权 13 | | 2.15 PTA 期权 13 | | 2.16 PX 期权 14 | | 2.17 烧碱期权 14 | | 2.18 橡胶期权 15 | | 2.19 BR 橡胶期权 15 | | 2.20 聚乙烯期权 16 | | 2.21 聚丙烯期权 16 | | 2.22 甲醇期权 17 | | 2.23 液化石油气期权 17 | | 2.24 PVC 期权 18 | ...

| | | | Millio | 国际娱乐 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月27日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 鐵硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。节后螺纹表需环比回升，产量维持低位，库存继续累积。热卷需求环比回升，产量保持平稳，库存继续累 积，压力相对较大。 节后高炉复产， 铁水产量有所回升，目前钢厂利润依然欠佳，叠加大会期间限产预期，后期回升节奏或相 对缓慢。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，春节期 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3063 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 下跌 13 元/吨，跌幅为 0.42%，持仓减少 3.63 万手。现货价格基本持平，唐山地区普方坯出厂价格 2910 元 | | | | /吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格 3170 元/吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回落 5.28 万吨至 165.1 | | | | 万吨，农历同比减少 18.7 万吨；社库环比回升 72.79 万吨至 567.76 万吨，农历同比增加 82.39 万吨；厂库 | | | | 环比回升 11.77 万吨至 232.84 万吨，农历同比增加 12.83 万吨；螺纹表需环比回升 39.38 万吨至 80.54 万 | | | | 吨，农历同比减少 51.01 万吨。螺纹产量有所回落，库存继续大幅累积，表需回升，数据表现基本符合预 | | | | 期。目前螺纹库存农历同比增加 95.22 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market's futures price rally lacks sustainability, and the spot market has weak drivers. The inventory is still accumulating, but the apparent demand has improved seasonally. The key is to observe the post - Lantern Festival demand and policy signals from the Two Sessions [2] - Due to the rumor of South Africa imposing a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have strengthened. The direct demand is expected to improve with the recovery of hot metal production, but the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains [3] - After a pulse - like rebound, coking coal and coke prices have fallen again. The supply side will recover first, while the recovery of the demand side is expected to be weaker. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended that the industry build positions on rallies and that unilateral traders wait and see [5] - Driven by real - estate利好 news, blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, and potential impacts of heavy rain in Brazil on iron ore shipments, the iron ore price has rebounded slightly, but the upward drive is insufficient, and the overall upside is limited by port inventory pressure [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On February 26, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3097.00 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, HC2610 at 3239.00 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3063.00 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, HC2605 at 3218.00 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase [1] - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2605 - 2610 at - 34.00 yuan/ton with a 3.00 yuan increase on February 26. The spreads/price ratios/profits, like the coil - to - rebar spread at 155.00 yuan/ton with a - 5.00 yuan change [1] Spot Market - On February 26, Shanghai rebar was at 3200.00 yuan/ton with no price change, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3210.00 yuan/ton with a - 60.00 yuan decrease. The prices of other spot products also had corresponding changes [1] Steel - The futures price rally lacks continuity, and the spot market has entered an adjustment phase. The inventory is still accumulating, and the apparent demand has improved seasonally. The post - Lantern Festival demand and policy signals from the Two Sessions are key factors [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by the rumor of South Africa imposing a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore, the prices have strengthened. The direct demand is expected to improve with the recovery of hot metal production, but the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The cost support has strengthened, and industrial policies may affect supply [3] Coking Coal and Coke - After a pulse - like rebound, the prices have fallen again. The supply side will recover first, while the demand side's recovery is expected to be weaker. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended that the industry build positions on rallies and that unilateral traders wait and see [5] Iron Ore - Driven by real - estate利好 news, blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, and potential impacts of heavy rain in Brazil on iron ore shipments, the price has rebounded slightly, but the upward drive is insufficient, and the overall upside is limited by port inventory pressure [6] Investment Recommendations - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For coking coal and coke, unilateral traders should wait and see, and cash - and - carry arbitrage positions can be established on rallies [7]

日度报告——综合晨报 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多 次降息 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-27 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多次降息 伊朗外长称美伊谈判取得进展，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数 走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股放量震荡整理 综 市场成交逐渐放量，更多流动性回归场内交易，这是我们判断 春季躁动仍未结束的原因之一。海外 AI 泡沫担忧逐渐深化，A 股或受映射。科技股短期回调压力增加，但中期仍看好。 巴西 2 月前两周出口糖和糖蜜 131.38 万吨 本榨季印度糖估产大幅下调 165 万吨至 2930 万吨，这将支撑印 度国内糖价，并限制其出口量，同时也有利于减轻本榨季全球 糖市供应过剩压力。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 芬兰启动欧洲首座商业化锂辉石矿山运营 短周期内仍以偏多思路看待。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 3205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 稳地产政策可以理解为临时扰动，在其他利空出现之前，债市 难以持续下跌，部分时刻还会存在反弹动力。不过后续潜在的 风险因素仍然存在。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 巴西 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-27 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.42%）。当日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 195.24 万手，环比减少 36289 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3130 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3218 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.55%）。 当日注册仓单 350770 吨, 环比增加 1765 吨。 主力合约持仓 ...

| Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月26日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆★ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 鐵時 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所回落。 节后螺纹表需环比回升，产量维持低位，库存继续累积。热卷需求环比回升，产量保持平稳，库存继续累 积，压力相对较大。由于钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，铁水产量维持相对低位。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩 大，春节期间新房销售欠住，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting outlines the current market status and development strategies for the black metal industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Price Trends - As of early February 2026, the market price for ordinary medium plates (20mm, Q235) is 3327.7 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.78% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.19% [1] - The highest recorded price for the same period in the past five years was 5238.7 yuan per ton in early February 2022 [1]

【钢材】"沪七条"及限产政策给盘面短暂反弹驱动 周三期价企稳反弹,现货跟随上涨,目内驱动主要来自于"炉七条"地产新政及北方区域钢厂限产政策,但观察现货成交和 涨价跟随情况,并没有很理想。从产业库存、产销等历史季节性数据来线性推演:目前现货库存仍处于脉冲累积的过程, 后第三周后逐步进入降库周期,今年库存总量预估中性略高，板材和钢坯库存高位,作为后续测试去库压力的重要观察品 种。从节前了解到的现货各环节冬储情况来看冬储敞口压力不大,推测现货的主动抛压不会太重。而产销角度，春节闹晚 节后天气对复工、复产启动提供较好基础,同时两会召开可能释放的政策信号或许是"十五五"开局之年值得期待的宏观驱 动点。 | | | | | | | | | ER EN ENR | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/26 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | ...