Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 09 日 通胀或已行至年内底部 —2025 年 6 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《关税新阶段——7 月 7 日 美国新关税政策点评》2025-07- 08 2、《通胀仍在低位震荡—— 2025 年 6 月宏观经济预测报 告》2025-07-05 3、《降息预期回调，但风偏仍 向好——2025 年 6 月美国就业 数据分析》2025-07-04 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 罗丹 S1090524070004 luodan7@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ CPI：6 月 CPI 同比 0.1%，由负转正；环比-0.1%，跌幅收窄。结构上来 看，1）6 月以来，农产品供应进入旺季，比如蛋类、蔬菜等供给较为充 足，当月食品 CPI 同比延续跌势，录得-0.3%，其中猪肉拖累最大，价格 同比录得-8.5%，较上月下降 11.6 个百分点，在猪周期以及需求淡季作用 下，猪肉供需失衡进一步加剧。2）6 月国际油价因伊以冲突一度大幅上 行，传导至国 ...

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-12 01-24 02-05 02-17 02-29 03-12 03-24 04-05 04-17 04-29 05-11 05-23 06-04 06-16 06-28 07-10 07-22 08-03 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-20 10-02 10-14 10-26 11-07 11-19 12-01 12-13 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.09） | | --- | - ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 6月CPI同比0.1%，高于前值的-0.1%。PPI同比-3.6%，低于前值的-3.3%。按照CPI、PPI分别 60%、40%粗略模拟的平减指数为-1.38%，持平于5月，继续处于2024年2月以来低点（图1）。 第二， CPI数据符合预期，在6月底周报中我们根据高频数据测算CPI同比0.14%；PPI同比则明显低于我们 当时测算的-3.0%的预期。6月PPI有基数优势，翘尾回升0.2%；同比却较高频数据继续下探，背后可能一是 高频数据对统计数据的表征有偏差；二是有高频数据不易捕捉的中游和下游行业价格弱势。 第三， 从数据来看确实如此，6月PPI煤炭加工价格环比-5.5%、煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比-3.4%、黑色金 属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比-1.8%，均弱于高频数据的焦煤、动力煤、螺纹钢价格表现，原因可能是煤价 是最后一周反弹（图2），而统计采样前三周更为关键；同时钢铁现货价格弱于期货也导致高频数据存在一定 偏差。 第四， 同时中下游制造行业也确实有一些价格异动，PPI耐用消费品分项环比从0.1%回落至-0.1%，其中计 算机通信 ...

211158 元 2025 年 07 月 09 日 如 参分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠張 A0230521070002 tugiang@swsresearch.com 研究本式 卧佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 621 23297818× 6 月通胀: 三大分化 通胀数据点评 (25.06) 事件:7月9日,国家统计局公布 6月通胀数据,CPI同比 0.1%、前值-0.1%、预期 0%、 环比-0.1%;PPI同比-3.6%、前值-3.3%、预期-3.2%、环比-0.4%。 核心观点:大宗商品、核心商品、服务价格表现分化,令CPI与 PPI"一升一降"。 0 分化一: 6 月 PPI 上游煤、钢等大宗商品价格回落,而 CPI 上游食品、铂金等大宗价格 走强。6 月 PPI 同比较前月回落 0.3pct 至-3.6%。其中钢材、水泥、煤炭等供给充足，测 算钢、煤价格拖累 PPI 环比-0.4%；但国际油价上行对国内油价形成支撑,铜价贡献依然 为正. 测算油、铜价格支撑 PPI 环比 0.2 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, increasing by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in various industrial sectors [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in PPI is attributed to seasonal price declines in raw materials, increased green energy production leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to a slowing global trade environment [4][5] - The cumulative CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, indicating weak domestic price levels and insufficient consumer demand, which provides ample policy space for further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus [3][5] - The decline in industrial prices is exacerbated by overcapacity in several sectors, prompting discussions on capacity reduction as part of a new round of supply-side reforms [5]

Group 1 - In June, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization and recovery [1] - The main reason for the month-on-month decline in PPI was the seasonal decrease in prices of certain raw material manufacturing industries, influenced by high temperatures and increased rainfall affecting construction progress in real estate and infrastructure projects [1] - The increase in green energy production contributed to a decrease in energy prices, with the electricity and heat production and supply industry seeing a month-on-month price drop of 0.9% [1] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% in June, influenced by both month-on-month declines and changes in comparison bases [1] - The construction of a unified national market has led to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in certain industries, with prices for gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing increasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a year-on-year increase in prices of daily necessities, with general daily goods and clothing prices rising by 0.8% and 0.1% respectively in June [2]

来源： 国家统计局官网 2025 年 6 月份 CPI 同比由降转涨 核心 CPI 继续回升 ——国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读 2025 年 6 月份 CPI 和 PPI 数据 6 月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，居民消费价格指数（ CPI ）同比由上月下降转为上 涨 0.1% ；环比下降 0.1% ，降幅比上月收窄 0.1 个百分点；扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 同比继续回升，上涨 0.7% 。工业生产者出厂价格指数（ PPI ）环比下降 0.4% ，降幅 与上月相同，同比下降 3.6% ，降幅比上月扩大 0.3 个百分点。 一、 CPI 同比由降转涨，核心 CPI 继续回升 CPI 同比上涨 0.1% ，为连续下降 4 个月后转涨。 CPI 由降转涨主要受工业消费品价格有所 回升影响。 工业消费品价格同比降幅由上月的 1.0% 收窄至 0.5% ，对 CPI 同比的下拉影 响比上月减少约 0.18 个百分点。其中，油价变动影响能源价格降幅比上月收窄 1.0 个百分 点，对 CPI 同比的下拉影响比上月减少约 0.08 个百分点；受国际大宗商品价格变动影响， 金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨 ...

天眼查资料显示，南京钢铁股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于南京市，是一家以从事黑色金属冶炼和 压延加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本616509.1011万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，南京钢铁股份 有限公司共对外投资了58家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息18条，专利信息 4537条，此外企业还拥有行政许可102个。 专利摘要显示，本发明公开了一种极寒环境破冰船用510Mpa级钢板，其化学成分重量百分比为C：0.03 ～0.08%，Si：0.10～0.50%，Mn：1.00～1.90%，P≤0.020%，S≤0.0020%，V：0.020～0.050%，Ni： 0.30～1.50%，Cr：0.20～0.70%，Nb：0.010～0.040%，Alt：0.010～0.050%，Ti：0.003～0.030%， Ca：0.0005～0.0040%，N≤0.0050%，其余为Fe及不可避免杂质。本发明的优点是钢板屈服强度 ≥390MPa，抗拉强度≥510MPa，母材‑60℃平均冲击功≥220J，近表NDTT温度≤‑60℃，力学性能好。 金融界2025年7月9日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，南京 ...

2025.07. 09 本文字数：1922，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 受工业品价格回升等因素影响，6月份CPI同比结束了此前四个月的负增长。 国家统计局7月9日发布的数据显示，6月居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比由上月下降转为上涨0.1%； 环比下降0.1%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同；同比下降 3.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点。 扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，上涨0.7%，涨幅比 上月扩大0.1个百分点，创近14个月以来新高。 相关"内卷"行业价格领域出现积极变化。治理企业低价无序竞争力度加大，落后产能退出和产品品质 提升逐步推进，汽柴油车整车制造、新能源车整车制造价格环比分别上涨0.5%和0.3%，同比降幅比 上月分别收窄1.9个和0.4个百分点；光伏设备及电子元器件制造价格同比下降10.9%，降幅收窄1.2 个百分点；锂离子电池制造价格同比下降4.8%，降幅收窄0.2个百分点。 CPI同比由降转涨 董莉娟表示，受环比下降及对比基数变动影响，PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，但随着各项 宏观政策 ...