Group 1 - The market sentiment score decreased slightly to 3.8 as of November 21, down from 3.9 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook from a sentiment perspective [6][10][11] - The overall trading activity in the market has declined, with total trading volume for the week down 8.74% compared to the previous week, averaging 18650.36 billion CNY per day [13][15] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as banking, textiles, defense, and petrochemicals have shown an upward trend, with petrochemicals having the highest short-term score of 83.05 [35][36] Group 2 - The price-volume consistency indicator has rapidly declined, suggesting a decrease in the correlation between capital attention and stock price increases, leading to a drop in market sentiment [10][11][12] - The industry trading volatility has continued to rise, indicating increased activity in capital switching between sectors, although the growth rate has slowed down [19][21] - The financing balance ratio has continued to rise, reflecting an increase in leveraged capital sentiment, suggesting a more active investment environment [25][27] Group 3 - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and value styles, with strong signals for both, although the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI has decreased rapidly, warranting further observation [35][44] - The industry crowding degree shows a negative correlation with weekly price changes, indicating that sectors with high crowding, such as electric power equipment and basic chemicals, have experienced significant declines [39][41] - The report highlights that industries with lower crowding, such as automobiles and machinery, have shown smaller declines, suggesting potential long-term investment value [39][41]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.8%，石油石化行业占比为32.2%，有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和 淘汰落后产能等政策。 11月24日，石化ETF（159731）震荡下行，现跌约1.1%，持仓股光威复材、蓝晓科技、三美股份等领 涨；川发龙蟒、盐湖股份等领跌。石化ETF（159731）近10个交易日有8个交易日获得资金净流入，合 计"吸金"2674万元。 华创证券认为，三季报到年报出炉，市场面临5个月的业绩空窗期，投资人面临布局明年和风格切换的 需要，因此化工是值得布局的选择之一。化工行业的整体加权开工率在历史高点，而价差还在底部，距 离反转还需要看到库存的去化，但已经有零星品种率先走出底部反转趋势。建议沿着四条路线进行配 置：（1）反转早期优先布局白马标的；（2）稀缺资源品有望迎来估值再定价，布局资源禀赋好的磷化 工、钾盐、氟化工龙头；（3）布局增量可观，成长确定性强的标的；（4）供需结构好，反转确定性较 强的农药、氨纶、长丝和有机硅等行业。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, predicting a slow bull market with increased difficulty in making profits, necessitating a focus on fundamental improvements and validations [1][2][15]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Outlook**: The A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on technology sectors while being cautious of structural and phase adjustment risks [2][9][15]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for 2026 include new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military machinery, and computing [3][10][15]. - **Investment Themes**: Key investment themes revolve around the US-China competition, particularly in AI and new energy, with significant advancements in domestic technologies such as large model algorithms and solid-state batteries [13][14][15]. - **IPO Market Dynamics**: The IPO market in 2025 saw a resurgence in new listings, with an average first-day increase of 244.78% and no new stocks experiencing a decline [16][24]. The number of new IPOs increased, particularly on the main board and the North Exchange [16][21]. - **Banking Sector Outlook**: The banking sector is expected to maintain high dividend yields, with credit growth projected at 7-8% and a narrowing of interest margin declines [4][36][39]. The overall provisioning is deemed sufficient to manage potential risks [42][43]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Valuation Levels**: Current valuation levels of major indices are at historical highs, indicating a potential risk of a market peak if short-term gains are too rapid [5][6]. - **Market Phases**: The market is currently in the "economic verification phase," characterized by index fluctuations and slowing growth, with frequent style switches due to earnings realizations in overvalued sectors [6][7]. - **Resource Sector Potential**: If the technology sector adjusts, resource products may become the new focus, benefiting from global monetary easing and supply-demand imbalances [12][15]. - **Non-Interest Income**: The banking sector's non-interest income is expected to continue benefiting from the bond market, although reliance solely on this income is cautioned against [40][41]. - **Asset Quality Concerns**: Despite the overall stability, there are concerns regarding real estate-related risks and the potential exposure of certain loan projects [42][43]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and strategies for the A-share market and specific sectors in 2026.

Summary of Conference Call on Commodity Cycle Industry Industry Overview - The commodity cycle industry has a long-term annualized return and volatility higher than market benchmarks, with a specific focus on the downward ratio of non-ferrous metals [1][4] - Key sectors to monitor include non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel, influenced by monetary, financial, and supply-demand factors [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Logic**: The investment logic in the commodity cycle industry is based on three dimensions: economic cycles, industry prosperity, and market sentiment. Timing is crucial due to the cyclical nature of the industry [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy changes serve as significant catalysts for sub-industries within the commodity cycle, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of valuation and performance turning points [1][8] - **Commodity Prices**: Commodity prices are direct indicators of industry prosperity, with stock market performance often leading commodity price peaks [1][10] - **Profitability Forecasts**: Profitability forecasts for coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals show a clearer leading relationship with stock prices compared to oil and petrochemicals [3][13] Key Sectors of Focus 1. **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Includes precious metals (e.g., gold), industrial metals (e.g., copper, aluminum), and energy metals (e.g., lithium). Influenced by monetary attributes and global economic conditions [6] 2. **Coal and Steel**: Heavily impacted by domestic supply-demand dynamics and commodity price correlations [6] 3. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Stock market performance is more strongly guided by oil price increases driven by economic growth, with caution advised regarding geopolitical disruptions [7] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: High dividend yield sectors, particularly coal, steel, and petrochemicals, exhibit strong defensive characteristics during market downturns [15] - **Emerging Technologies**: The development of new materials in the chemical industry, such as membrane materials and carbon fibers, is increasing demand [3][12] - **Long-term Outlook**: Analysts predict that the current upward cycle in commodity prices is not yet over, with long-term growth potential remaining due to low valuation levels across sub-industries [17] Conclusion - The commodity cycle industry is poised for potential growth driven by favorable policies and market conditions. Non-ferrous metals and coal are highlighted as sectors with significant investment opportunities, while the petrochemical sector requires careful monitoring of oil price movements.

廖市无双：上证破趋势，大盘何去何从？20251123 摘要 上证指数跌破 4 月 7 日以来的上升趋势线，确认五浪结构破位及日线 MACD 底背离，预示将进入 ABC 调整结构，需关注调整结构发展及各 指数表现。当前指数在 3,700-3,800 点区域具备较强支撑，包括 3,732 点、3,774 点和 3,702 点等关键点位。 创业板指数自 10 月 17 日以来创新高后随上证指数调整，形成 A 浪下跌。 科创 50 指数呈现 ABC 结构，C 段加速下跌。创业板风险相对较高，需 谨慎对待，而恒生科技和科创 50 指数调整较为充分，无需进一步杀跌。 本周无行业板块上涨，前期强势板块如电芯、基础化工、钢铁、医药、 有色等显著回调，锂矿链条跌幅接近 10%。银行和食品饮料等防御性板 块相对抗跌，银行因前期回调具备防御属性，食品饮料因涨幅小且风险 释放表现稳健。 美联储降息预期减弱导致全球流动性收紧，比特币价格大幅下跌，引发 以其为抵押的经营经理面临流动性紧张，负面影响传导至股票市场。英 伟达财报超预期但应收账款和存货增加引发质疑，可能影响国内科技股。 Q&A 上证指数和上证 50 的近期走势如何，未来可能会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market correction in A-shares is attributed to external factors, including declining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising concerns over an AI bubble, which have transmitted pessimistic sentiment from overseas markets to China [3][8][9]. Market Performance - On November 21, A-shares experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.45% to close at 3834.89 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell 3.41% and 4.02%, respectively. Nearly 5100 stocks in the market declined, particularly in high-performing sectors like AI, chips, and lithium batteries [3][4]. - Over the week from November 17 to November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9%, and the Shenzhen Component dropped 5.03%. High-growth sectors such as coke, photovoltaic equipment, electronics, batteries, and chemicals saw declines exceeding 10% [4]. Fund Flows - Despite the market downturn, over 700 billion yuan flowed into stock ETFs, indicating a trend of buying on dips. Notable ETFs like the Southern CSI 500 ETF and E Fund ChiNext ETF saw net inflows exceeding 30 billion yuan each during the week [5][6]. - On the day of the market drop (November 21), over 400 billion yuan was invested in ETFs, with the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF alone receiving about 40 billion yuan in net inflow [5]. External Factors - Multiple fund companies attribute the market correction primarily to external disturbances, particularly the unclear direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and heightened concerns over an AI bubble. The U.S. job market data showed strong job growth but an unexpected rise in unemployment, complicating the Fed's decision-making [8][9]. - The sentiment from U.S. markets, particularly regarding tech stocks, has amplified the pressure on A-shares, with concerns about liquidity tightening affecting growth stock valuations [10]. Future Outlook - Several fund companies maintain a positive long-term outlook for Chinese assets, suggesting a "slow bull" market trend. They believe that while short-term volatility may occur, the underlying fundamentals remain strong [11]. - The market is expected to benefit from supportive policies in the tech sector and a potential stabilization in the real estate market, which could lead to a gradual recovery in stock valuations [12].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in various industries, particularly in technology and consumption sectors, with a focus on the resilience of growth in the face of macroeconomic challenges [5][9][17] - The investment strategy for 2026 highlights a shift from extreme growth to balanced allocation, with specific attention to sectors like artificial intelligence, traditional industries benefiting from AI integration, and consumer sectors poised for recovery [9][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,834.89, down 2.45%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12,538.07, down 3.41% [3][10] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.14 and 47.93, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][11] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have experienced slight declines, with the Dow down 0.67% and the S&P 500 down 0.45% [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines a new recovery cycle in the machinery sector, with a notable 30.12% increase in the CITIC Machinery Index, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 14.11 percentage points [14][15] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements, with a focus on AI and autonomous driving technologies [17][20] Key Data Updates - The lithium battery sector has shown significant growth, with a 12.81% increase in revenue and a 28.38% increase in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong demand in both power and energy storage batteries [28][29] - The agricultural sector has faced challenges, with pig prices declining by 11.46% month-on-month in October 2025, reflecting supply and demand dynamics [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong recovery potential, such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, while also considering the impact of government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [25][27] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in the AI sector, particularly in companies involved in AI hardware and software, as well as those in the semiconductor supply chain [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock market correction has raised concerns, with significant declines in major indices, but there is a notable influx of capital into ETFs as investors seek to capitalize on lower prices [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a substantial drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.45% to 3834.89 points, and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices declining by 3.41% and 4.02% respectively [1]. - Over the past week, the Shanghai Composite Index saw a weekly decline of 3.9%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices dropped by 5.03% and 5.96% respectively [2]. Capital Inflow into ETFs - Despite the market downturn, over 700 billion yuan flowed into stock ETFs in the past week, indicating a strong buying interest [3]. - On November 21, the day of the market drop, more than 400 billion yuan was invested in ETFs, with significant inflows into various major ETFs [3]. External Factors Impacting the Market - Multiple fund companies attribute the market correction to external factors, particularly the declining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising concerns over an AI bubble, which have transmitted pessimism from overseas markets to China [5][6]. - The recent U.S. employment data showed a paradox, with job growth exceeding expectations but the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [7]. Industry Analysis - Certain sectors, such as batteries, banks, communications, and coal, have shown slight net outflows in their respective ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4]. - The technology sector, particularly related to AI, has faced significant pressure, with concerns over valuation and market sentiment affecting stock performance [6][7]. Future Outlook - Fund companies maintain a positive long-term outlook for Chinese assets, suggesting a "slow bull" market trend despite short-term volatility [8]. - The balance between AI capital investment and output is crucial, with expectations that ongoing technological advancements will support long-term growth [8][9]. - The fundamental factors, including real estate stabilization and the impact of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support a sustained upward trend in the A-share market [9].

| 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3834.89 | -2.45% | -96.16 | | 深证成指 | 12538.07 | -3.41% | -442.75 | | 沪深 300 | 4453.61 | -2.44% | -111.34 | | 创业板 | 2920.08 | -4.02% | -122.26 | | 科创 50 | 1285.83 | -3.19% | -42.36 | | 北证 50 | 1377.39 | -4.71% | -68.15 | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指失守 3900 点 市场表现： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -0.32% | 综合 | -5.50% | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week due to a decline in market risk appetite, with major indices generally falling. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index had the best performance with a decline of -2.7%, while the ChiNext Index saw the worst performance with a decline of -6.2%. The overall valuation of the Wind All A Index is at the 83rd percentile since 2010 [4]. Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, the banking, media, and food and beverage sectors experienced relatively smaller declines, with changes of -0.9%, -1.3%, and -1.4% respectively. Conversely, the power equipment, comprehensive, and basic chemicals sectors lagged behind with declines of -10.5%, -9.2%, and -7.5% respectively [4]. Important Events - Key events this week included China's stern diplomatic response to Japan's Prime Minister's erroneous remarks, the Netherlands' suspension of an administrative order against ASML, and President Putin's announcement regarding visa-free policies for Chinese citizens. Additionally, the November LPR rates were published, remaining unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3.5% for the 5-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of stability [5]. Market Sentiment - The market remains in a bull phase, but short-term fluctuations are expected due to overseas market volatility. Factors such as increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts in December, high valuations in tech stocks, and concerns over an AI bubble have contributed to a turbulent week for U.S. stocks, with the Nasdaq index falling by 2.74% [6][7]. Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, the focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors in the short term, while maintaining attention on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors in the medium term. The market is likely to experience a period of consolidation, with previously lagging sectors such as high-dividend and consumer stocks expected to perform better [7].