Core Insights - A total of 45 companies have announced their performance forecasts for the first three quarters, with 41 companies expecting profit increases, representing 91.11% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies reporting positive forecasts is 93.33%, with one company expecting a profit and one company expecting a loss [1] - Among the companies expecting profit increases, 14 companies anticipate a net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 11 companies expect growth between 50% and 100% [1] Company Performance - Yinglian Co. is projected to have the highest net profit growth at 1602.05%, followed by Guangdong Mingzhu at 964.95% and Limin Co. at 659.48% [1] - The industries with the most companies expecting profit growth of over 100% include basic chemicals, steel, and electronics, with 4, 2, and 2 companies respectively [1] - The main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market have 9, 4, and 1 companies respectively among those expecting profit growth [1] Market Trends - Since July, the average increase for companies expecting profit growth has been 45.35%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - Changchuan Technology has seen the largest increase since July, with a total rise of 111.45%, followed by Northern Rare Earth and Dongyangguang with increases of 110.76% and 91.32% respectively [1] Capital Flow - In the past five days, the companies with the highest net inflow of main funds among those expecting profit growth are Northern Rare Earth, Jinli Yongci, and Zhenyu Technology, with net inflows of 499.66 million, 155.84 million, and 89.05 million respectively [2] - Conversely, the companies with the highest net outflow of main funds include Dongyangguang, Changchuan Technology, and Yinglian Co., with net outflows of 840.55 million, 802.72 million, and 156.14 million respectively [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Lu Xi Chemical experienced a decline of 5.17% in its stock price, reaching 13.93 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 158 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.59%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 26.527 billion yuan [1] - Lu Xi Chemical Group Co., Ltd. is located in the High-tech Industrial Development Zone of Liaocheng, Shandong, and was established on June 11, 1998, with its listing date on August 7, 1998. The company's main business involves new chemical materials, basic chemicals, and other businesses [1] - The revenue composition of Lu Xi Chemical's main business includes: 66.07% from new chemical materials, 20.11% from basic chemicals, 12.06% from fertilizers, and 1.76% from other products [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten holdings of funds, data shows that one fund under Huatai-PineBridge has a significant position in Lu Xi Chemical. The Huatai-PineBridge CSI National New State-Owned Enterprise Shareholder Return ETF (560070) reduced its holdings by 1,700 shares in the second quarter, holding 887,000 shares, which accounts for 2.83% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI National New State-Owned Enterprise Shareholder Return ETF (560070) was established on May 24, 2023, with a latest scale of 323 million yuan. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 8.74%, ranking 3,686 out of 4,220 in its category; over the past year, it has returned 7.99%, ranking 3,331 out of 3,855; and since inception, it has returned 20.6% [2]

Core Viewpoint - 15 companies listed on the ChiNext board have announced their performance forecasts for the first three quarters, with all companies expecting profit increases [1] Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Company 川金 (Code: 300505) expects a net profit increase of 171.61% with a latest closing price of 21.50 and a year-to-date increase of 51.89% [1] - Company 金力 (Code: 300748) anticipates a net profit increase of 168.00%, with a closing price of 39.88 and a year-to-date increase of 124.29% [1] - Company 长川科技 (Code: 300604) forecasts a net profit increase of 138.39%, with a closing price of 94.75 and a year-to-date increase of 115.19% [1] - Company 震裕科技 (Code: 300953) predicts a net profit increase of 137.80%, with a closing price of 174.00 and a year-to-date increase of 248.20% [1] - Company 涛涛车业 (Code: 301345) expects a net profit increase of 99.10%, with a closing price of 230.18 and a year-to-date increase of 261.41% [1] - Company 全志科技 (Code: 300458) anticipates a net profit increase of 82.13%, with a closing price of 48.20 and a year-to-date increase of 62.47% [1] - Company 中泰股份 (Code: 300435) forecasts a net profit increase of 79.28%, with a closing price of 21.76 and a year-to-date increase of 82.77% [1] - Company 扬杰科技 (Code: 300373) predicts a net profit increase of 45.00%, with a closing price of 74.05 and a year-to-date increase of 72.66% [1] - Company 联合动力 (Code: 301656) expects a net profit increase of 44.16%, with a closing price of 29.91 and a year-to-date decrease of 3.20% [1] - Company C云汉 (Code: 301563) anticipates a net profit increase of 41.41%, with a closing price of 142.27 and a year-to-date increase of 21.81% [1] - Company 鼎龙股份 (Code: 300054) forecasts a net profit increase of 37.12%, with a closing price of 36.52 and a year-to-date increase of 40.85% [1] - Company 建发致新 (Code: 301584) predicts a net profit increase of 35.00%, with a closing price of 27.02 and a year-to-date decrease of 26.09% [1] - Company 华测导航 (Code: 300627) expects a net profit increase of 25.10%, with a closing price of 35.43 and a year-to-date increase of 19.98% [1] - Company 艾芬达 (Code: 301575) anticipates a net profit increase of 14.72%, with a closing price of 56.68 and a year-to-date decrease of 24.19% [1] - Company 昊创瑞通 (Code: 301668) forecasts a net profit increase of 2.48%, with a closing price of 57.80 and a year-to-date decrease of 5.34% [1]

Group 1 - Since September, brokerages have conducted research on over 880 listed companies, primarily in the machinery, electronics, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, basic chemicals, and computer industries [1] - After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, institutions quickly researched 39 listed companies, focusing on machinery, power equipment, basic chemicals, and automotive sectors [1] - Seven companies received attention from at least 10 institutions, including Rongbai Technology, Julite, Sifangda, Guangmai Technology, Alite, Beiqi Blue Valley, and Songsheng Co., Ltd [1] Group 2 - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export control measures on five items, including superhard materials, rare earth equipment, and lithium battery materials, set to take effect on November 8 [1] - Following the announcement, several related listed companies held investor communication meetings to discuss the impact of the new export control policies [1]

Group 1 - Since September, over 880 listed companies have been surveyed by brokerages, with a focus on industries such as machinery, electronics, and biomedicine [1][2] - The machinery sector has attracted significant attention, with 136 companies surveyed; notable mentions include Zhongkong Technology and Haimuxing, which are focused on industrial applications and solid-state battery developments respectively [2] - The electronics sector remains popular, with 109 companies surveyed; companies like Lanke Technology and Juguang Technology have seen stock price increases of over 120% this year [2] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, 39 companies were surveyed, primarily in machinery, power equipment, and basic chemicals; companies like Rongbai Technology and Juli Sockets received attention from multiple institutions [3][4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export control measures on certain materials, effective November 8, prompting rapid investor interest in affected companies [3] - Rongbai Technology hosted 161 institutional investors, expressing support for the new export control policies, stating that their main products remain unaffected [3] Group 3 - Fourda, specializing in superhard materials, also received attention from over 20 institutions, indicating that domestic restrictions on micro-powder could positively impact domestic diamond composite manufacturers [4] - Analysts maintain confidence in the A-share market despite recent global asset volatility, suggesting that company earnings are expected to improve, providing new market momentum [5][6] - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, but the long-term outlook for A-shares remains bullish, supported by improving company quality and increasing dividends and buybacks [6]

■私募新观察 私募最新调研路径曝光 科技与医药仍是"心头好" ◎记者 马嘉悦 私募四季度的布局思路，可在9月调研路径中窥得端倪。私募排排网最新统计数据显示，9月超900家私 募参与A股上市公司调研活动，合计调研近2800次。从行业分布来看，电子、机械设备、医药生物、电 力设备等板块备受青睐，接受私募调研的频次居前。在业内人士看来，随着大量海外资金和居民财富重 新配置，稳增长政策持续发力，中国权益资产的基本面、资金面和趋势上都有支撑，结构性行情有望持 续演绎，尤其是代表中国经济转型方向的科技、医药板块，以及受益于"反内卷"政策的工程机械、化工 行业龙头股，值得重点关注。 9月以来，私募调研保持较高积极性。 私募排排网统计数据显示，9月共有979家私募证券投资基金管理人参与A股公司调研活动，覆盖30个申 万一级行业的529家公司，合计调研频次达2789次。其中，9月共有41家百亿级私募参与A股公司调研， 覆盖27个申万一级行业的189家公司，合计调研频次达318次。 具体来看，创新型生物制药龙头企业——迈威生物备受私募关注，9月获得了88家私募调研，其中不乏 淡水泉、高毅资产、和谐汇一资产等百亿级私募身影。在对迈 ...

Core Insights - The overseas markets experienced more declines than gains in the past week (October 6-10, 2025), with the Nikkei 225 leading the mainstream indices with a rise of 5.07% [2][8] - In the A-share market, core indices showed mixed performance with moderate valuation fluctuations, where the CSI 500 fell by 0.19% and the CSI 100 led the decline with a drop of 0.7% [2][23] - The valuation of large-cap value stocks is relatively superior in the short to medium term, with their rolling percentile averages for PE, PB, and PS at 53.7% and 76.7% for 1-year and 3-year periods respectively [2][24] Global Market Valuation Tracking - The global equity markets saw a slight contraction in valuations, with the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and Hang Seng Tech Index PE dropping by more than 1x [2][8] - The SENSEX 30 is currently at a relatively low valuation percentile, while the Hang Seng Tech Index's rolling 3-year PE has fallen below the 60% percentile [2][8] A-share Market Valuation Tracking - The A-share core indices showed mixed results with moderate valuation changes, where the CSI 500 outperformed with a decline of only 0.19% [23] - The large-cap value stocks have a significant advantage over growth stocks, with the mid-cap value index rising by 2.76% and its valuation increasing by over 0.4x [2][23] Industry Valuation - There is significant differentiation among primary industries, with upstream cyclical and support services generally rising, while TMT and power equipment sectors, which previously had strong profit margins, saw overall declines [2][46] - The valuation contraction in sectors such as power equipment, electronics, computing, and media exceeded 1x, while steel and non-ferrous metals experienced expansion exceeding 1x [2][46] Valuation Comparisons - The essential consumer sector shows slightly superior valuation attractiveness, particularly in food and beverage, and agriculture, with their 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year valuation averages at 36.06%, 19.66%, and 11.81% respectively [2][24] - Emerging industries displayed notable differentiation, with nuclear power stocks rising over 5%, while the digital economy sector performed poorly in the past week [2][46]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20251009-20251010） 本周指数普遍下跌 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，中证 500 下跌 0.19%，中证 1000 下跌 0.54%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 16.15%，相对于上周下跌了 1.54%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 19.98%，相对于上周下跌了 5.13%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 20.93%，相对于上周下跌了 4.16%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 16.61%，相 对于上周下跌了 1.67%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 9 月 19 日到 2025 年 9 月 25 日正 面信号共出现了 3059 次，未来高点平均胜率为 46.09%，负面信号出现 3051 次，未来低点平均胜率为 52.79%。 从宽基择时策略来看，创业板指、上证 50、中证 800、万得微盘股指数、中证 500、沪深 300、恒生金融类、恒生香港 35、恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生 等权重、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数出现看多信号，其余宽基信 ...

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metals industry continuing to lead the market [1] - During the National Day holiday, favorable factors for the non-ferrous industry have emerged, contributing to its ongoing leadership [1] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metals industry is at the historical 87.8 percentile, with specific sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and gold at 92.1%, 96.3%, 40.7%, and 83.6% percentiles respectively, indicating greater valuation upside potential for lithium [1] A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 22.36 times last week to 22.78 times this week, while PB (LF) rose from 2.17 times to 2.21 times [10] - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board increased from 81.61 times to 82.22 times, while its PB (LF) remained stable at 4.88 times [19] - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose from 272.77 times to 276.66 times, with PB (LF) increasing from 6.72 times to 6.81 times [21] Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [27] - In terms of PB (LF), TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer discretionary also show absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, while financial services and consumer staples are below historical medians [29] - The overall valuation of key companies in A-shares based on dynamic PE increased from 15.17 times to 15.19 times this week [14] Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, decreased from 5.80 times to 5.66 times, while relative PB (LF) fell from 5.69 times to 5.54 times [23] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like oil and petrochemicals, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2] ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares decreased from 0.80% to 0.76%, while the equity-debt yield spread fell from -0.19% to -0.24% [60] - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares increased from 2.76% to 2.77% this week [64]

Market Overview - On the second trading day of October, major A-share indices declined, with growth indices like the ChiNext and STAR Market experiencing significant pullbacks, while dividend sectors rose against the trend [1] - The trading volume remained above 2.5 trillion, indicating active market participation despite a slight decrease in transaction volume [2] Performance of Indices - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 15.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.88%, the CSI 300 Index by 17.94%, and the ChiNext Index by 51.20% [2] - The performance of various sectors showed a majority of gains, with non-ferrous metals leading at 67.52%, followed by communications at 62.61%, and electronics at 53.51% [2] ETF Performance - Several ETFs, including construction materials and high-dividend ETFs, saw gains exceeding 2%, while battery and integrated circuit ETFs dropped over 7% [1] - In the first three quarters, Hong Kong's innovative drug ETFs doubled, while energy and coal ETFs faced significant declines [2] Earnings Forecasts - As of October 10, 32 companies had released earnings forecasts, with 90.63% indicating positive growth, particularly in sectors like basic chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals [5] - The expected doubling of earnings is concentrated in the main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market, with 6, 2, and 1 stocks respectively [5] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include sectors benefiting from external interest rate cuts and emerging demand, such as non-ferrous metals and stable price sectors like steel and coal [5] - The focus on AI and related infrastructure is emphasized as a core investment direction, with applications in robotics, gaming, and military sectors also highlighted [6] Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown mixed performance in October, with a 55% chance of monthly gains over the past 20 years, but with an average increase of only about 0.29% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index has a 70% win rate, while the ChiNext Index has a 60% win rate, indicating a generally favorable outlook for these indices in October [3]