晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.11.28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投 资策略报告 工企利润短期波动，后续关注政策部署——2025 年 1-10 月工业企业效益数据 点评 行业研究 把握创新与出海机遇，关注新技术空间——医药生物行业 2026 年度投资策略 报告 大模型厂商发力 C 端应用，关注 AI 应用商业化落地——计算机行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/11/28） 宏观及策略研究 业绩支撑中枢上移，产业、政策助推结构性行情——A 股市场 2026 年年度投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 1、 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive growth trend in industrial enterprise profits for the first ten months of 2025, with a total profit of CNY 59,502.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [5][6] - The report emphasizes the impact of raw material prices on the profitability of industrial enterprises, indicating that these prices remain a significant drag on earnings [5][6] - A new consumption promotion plan issued by six ministries aims to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, creating three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [8][9] Macroeconomic Overview - Industrial enterprises maintained a year-on-year profit growth, although the growth rate slowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [5] - In October, industrial profits saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, with a month-on-month drop of 27.1 percentage points [5] - The report notes that the mining sector's contribution to profits has been consistently low this year [5] Revenue and Cost Analysis - For the first ten months, industrial enterprises reported a revenue growth of 1.8%, with a slight decrease in revenue per hundred yuan of assets to CNY 74.5 [6] - Operating costs increased by 2.0%, with the profit margin remaining stable at 5.3% [6] - The report indicates that industrial production activities remain active, but pricing pressures persist, with PPI and production material PPI showing negative year-on-year growth [6][7] Consumption Promotion Plan - The plan aims for a significant optimization of the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, with a focus on new technologies and innovative business models [8][9] - It emphasizes the importance of matching supply with diverse consumer needs, including specific demographics such as children, students, and the elderly [10] - The report outlines the creation of new consumption scenarios and business formats, supported by a favorable development environment [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies related to employment, tourism, and cultural consumption, as well as those involved in sports events and creative industries [12]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.1%, the STAR Market 50 decreased by 0.3%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.4%. The Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.1% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday included light industry manufacturing (+1.1%), basic chemicals (+1.0%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.9%), coal (+0.8%), and beauty care (+0.7%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-2.3%), media (-1.4%), retail (-1.2%), computer (-0.8%), and building materials (-0.7%) [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 1,709.6 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.33 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Home Appliances Sector - The home appliance sector shows resilience, with opportunities in overseas markets due to improving external demand and enhanced overseas production efficiency. There is a focus on emerging growth areas [5] - Market concerns exist regarding the impact of domestic subsidy reductions on demand, but the report maintains a positive outlook on leading white goods companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are less sensitive to these changes [5] - Key drivers include alleviated industry competition, improving overseas demand, and stable domestic demand [5] Macro Research - The macroeconomic report emphasizes that under the framework of a unified national market, "anti-involution" focuses more on high-quality supply optimization rather than merely clearing excess capacity [6] - The report maintains a consistent viewpoint regarding the significant efforts to combat "involution" [6] Social Services Sector - The social services sector is witnessing a warming in pricing, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption. Travel demand remains robust, and hotel RevPAR is showing signs of recovery [8] - The report highlights a shift in local retail from store closures to inventory adjustments, which is expected to release profits [8] - Key drivers include CPI, same-store sales, and social retail performance [8] Medical Devices Sector - The medical devices sector is viewed positively due to investment opportunities arising from payment policy optimization and growth driven by the Belt and Road Initiative [9] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-value consumables to accelerate growth following the completion of centralized procurement [9] - Key drivers include ongoing innovation in medical devices and the international expansion of the sector [9]

Group 1: Major Indices - The bond index (China Bond Composite) shows a strong performance with a 90% increase rate, making it a stable choice for investors [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index stands out among stock indices with a 60% increase rate and an average increase of 1.34%, indicating potential opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [3] - Large-cap indices like CSI 300 outperform small-cap indices, suggesting a market preference for larger leading stocks in December [3][4] Group 2: Fund Types - Short-term and medium to long-term bond funds have a high increase rate of 90%, making them suitable for investors seeking certainty [5][7] - "Fixed income plus" products, such as secondary bond funds, show a 70% increase rate and an average return of 0.44%, balancing risk and return effectively [7] - Equity funds exhibit a divergence, with high-position ordinary stock and mixed equity funds having a 40% increase rate but higher average returns, appealing to risk-tolerant investors [7] Group 3: Industry Perspective - Consumer sectors, particularly social services, food and beverage, and home appliances, show a 70% increase rate, highlighting the "year-end consumption season" as a driving force [8][10] - Financial and energy sectors, including banks and oil and gas, demonstrate strong defensive characteristics with high increase rates, indicating stability during December [11] - Specific consumer segments like white goods and non-liquor beverages have an 80% increase rate, marking them as significant alpha sources [12][13]

Timing Outlook - The overall A-share market is expected to continue a slow bull recovery in 2026 from a macro perspective of credit inflation, observing valuation, risk premium, and sentiment from a micro perspective [3][42] - The current risk premium is in a balanced area, with the ChiNext index's style valuation at a relative historical median level [42] - The proportion of stocks above the 200-day moving average reflects market heat, currently in a balanced area [42] - The latest thematic allocation focuses on energy and high-dividend sectors using convolutional neural networks to model price and volume data [3][39] Style and Industry Allocation Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, with small-cap growth styles performing significantly better, particularly in sectors like social services, beauty care, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics [4][12] - Industries with relatively low valuations and high expected earnings growth for 2026 include agriculture, social services, home appliances, food and beverage, automotive, and non-ferrous metals [4][50] - The inflow of northbound funds is concentrated in sectors such as electronics, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and communications [4][55] - The best allocation period for small-cap growth is February, with a focus on technology in February and May, and consumer sectors in April and year-end [4][61] 2025 Market Review - The A-share market showed strong performance in 2025, with the ChiNext index rising by 36.4% year-to-date as of November 21 [7] - The small-cap growth style, represented by the CSI 1000 and small-cap growth indices, performed well, with increases of 6.7% and 4.5% respectively in the first half of the year [12] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the industry gains, with an increase of 65.7% year-to-date [15] 2026 Macro Environment Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve, with inflation trends likely to rise, particularly as PPI shows signs of recovery after three years of low fluctuations [44][47] - Historical PPI recovery phases indicate that small-cap and growth sectors tend to outperform during these periods [47] Valuation and Earnings Expectations - The current valuation levels indicate that the ChiNext index and other indices still have cost-effectiveness for allocation, particularly in consumption and cyclical sectors [50][52] - Key industries to focus on for long-term investment opportunities include agriculture, social services, home appliances, food and beverage, automotive, and non-ferrous metals, based on relative valuation and expected earnings growth for 2026 [50][54]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3864.18, down by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% to 12907.83 [2][4] - The three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 3% at one point during the session [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (+4.64%), Comprehensive (+1.79%), and Electronics (+1.58%), while the worst-performing sectors were Defense Industry (-2.25%) and Media (-0.82%) [3] - Notable concept indices that performed well included Horse Racing (+1.95%) and Duty-Free Shops (+1.72%), while sectors like Shipbuilding (-5.09%) and Military-Civil Integration (-1.90%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The report highlights a government initiative aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption areas and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [5] - The market is expected to stabilize with a focus on sectors such as dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and New Energy, as the regulatory environment becomes clearer [5]

Group 1: Vanke Debt Situation - Vanke's debt situation is under scrutiny as a report suggests that the local government is considering a "market-oriented" approach to handle its debt [1][2] - A working group previously estimated a funding gap of approximately 150 billion RMB (about 21.1 billion USD) for Vanke, with total interest-bearing liabilities reported at around 362.9 billion RMB (51.1 billion USD) as of September 30 [3] - Vanke faces imminent challenges with two domestic bonds maturing in December, totaling 2 billion RMB and 3.7 billion RMB, respectively [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The market is reacting to rumors that Shenzhen has sought assistance from Beijing regarding Vanke's debt situation, leading to speculation about potential outcomes [4] - The report indicates that the Shenzhen government can no longer support Vanke independently, suggesting a need for intervention from higher authorities [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Stock Performance - The TMT sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with the rolling 40-day excess return narrowing to a historical low of around -7.5%, indicating a potential bottoming out [10] - Recent reports highlight a strong performance in the optical communication sector, driven by rumors of Google placing a substantial order, which has positively impacted related stocks [14][22]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on November 26, with major indices fluctuating, while sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors saw gains, whereas shipbuilding and aerospace sectors faced declines [1] - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 11.01 billion yuan, with 15 sectors experiencing net inflows, particularly automotive, textile and apparel, and comprehensive industries, each exceeding 300 million yuan [1] - The basic chemical industry led the net outflow with 1.13 billion yuan, followed by social services, real estate, and non-bank financial sectors, each exceeding 600 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Five stocks recorded net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with a total of 63 stocks seeing net inflows above 100 million yuan [2] - The CPO concept stocks continued to strengthen, with New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang attracting net inflows of 1.646 billion yuan and 1.306 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Yangguang Power saw a net inflow of 1.243 billion yuan, while Inspur Information reported a net inflow of 1.128 billion yuan, with the company announcing a share buyback of 2.25 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - At the market close, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 1.541 billion yuan, with retail and food and beverage sectors leading in net inflows [5] - Three stocks, including Yaowang Technology and Dongxin Co., saw net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan at the close, with Dongxin Co. hitting the daily limit [6]

按最新收盘价计算，A股均价为13.48元，不足2元的个股共有24只，股价最低的是*ST元成，最新收盘 价为0.58元。 | 002306 | *ST云网 | 1.95 | -2.99 | 5.15 | | 社会服务 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300197 | 节能铁汉 | 1.99 | -0.50 | 1.34 | 6.01 | 建筑装饰 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 市场表现方面，上述低价股中，今日上涨的有10只，涨幅居前的有金正大、海航控股、广田集团，分别 上涨1.65%、1.18%、1.09%。下跌的有8只，跌幅居前的有*ST云网、荣盛发展、绿地控股，跌幅分别为 2.99%、1.21%、1.14%。（数据宝） 低价股排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 最新收盘价（元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | 日换手率（%） | 市净率（倍） | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603388 | *ST元成 | 0.58 | | | 0.27 | 建筑装饰 | | 600200 | *ST ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weak employment market, Fed officials' remarks were dovish, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut has increased. The Sino-US presidential dialogue boosted market sentiment, leading to gains in the three major US stock indexes. The domestic market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. As the accumulated market sentiment is gradually released, it is expected to start a volatile upward trend. The specific pace still needs to focus on policy dynamics [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro and Overseas**: The Sino-US presidents had a dialogue, and Fed officials believed the labor market was weak and advocated a December rate cut [1] - **Spot Market**: A-share and US stock indexes closed higher. The defense and military, media, computer, and social service sectors led the gains, while the petroleum and petrochemical, coal, banking, and food and beverage sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.7 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases [2] - **Futures Market**: The degree of futures index discount narrowed, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Overseas, due to the weak employment market, Fed officials' remarks were dovish, increasing the market's expectation of a December rate cut. The Sino-US presidential dialogue boosted market sentiment, and the three major US stock indexes closed higher. The domestic market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, and is expected to start a volatile upward trend. The specific pace still needs to focus on policy dynamics [3] Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [7][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.31%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.12%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.18%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.76%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.26% [13] - **Other Charts**: Include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Futures Index Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased simultaneously. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract decreased by 52,863, and the open interest decreased by 7,338 [16] - **Futures Index Basis**: The basis of stock index futures showed certain changes. For example, the basis of the IF contract's current-month contract was -12.85, with a change of -40.44 [41] - **Futures Index Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spread of stock index futures also changed. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of the IF contract was -15.80, with a change of +37.00 [48]