周五（1月30日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨1.21个基点，报4.2434%，1月份累计上涨7.84个 基点，整体波动区间为4.1221%-4.3065%，1月15-20日显著走高。两年期美债收益率跌3.46个基点，报 3.5245%，1月份累涨5.14个基点；30年期美债收益率累涨3.92个基点，报4.8838%。2/10年期美债收益率 利差涨5.072个基点，报+71.892个基点，1月份累涨2.906个基点，整体呈现出W形反转行情。10年期通 胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨1.21个基点，至1.9027%，1月份累涨0.78个基点；两年期TIPS收益率跌 5.93个基点，至0.6699%，彭博数据显示，1月份累跌48.86个基点，整体从1.1874%持续下挫至 0.6699%；30年期TIPS收益率1月份大致持平，至2.62%。 ...

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 红马奔腾策略系列 1：从老红利到新红马之投资 范式 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 目前部分机构资产回报率承压，核心原因在于负债端久期长、成本刚性，而低利率环境下，固 收类资产收益率下行，权益类的传统红利投资股息下降，较难覆盖负债端成本。投资思路：预 期回报率高（3%~5%以上）、安全边际高（行业格局和估值企稳）的方向值得关注。1）寻找 未来股息率高的方向：通过分红率的提高来提供较高的股息水平，直接增厚股息回报；2）同时 估值不应大幅下滑：具有安全边际，避免因资本利得大幅损失（如股价下跌）抵消股息收益， 重点关注供给收缩/行业出清到尾声的细分行业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% 关注自由现金流和稳住 ROE 是分红潜力的关键。一是从理论出发，稳定的自由现金流是保障 潜在股息率提升的重要基础，其通过影响利润与估值，提供持续的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of interest rate bonds oscillating within a range remains unchanged. In the quarterly dimension, inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the oscillation; in the weekly dimension, it is expected to have narrow - amplitude fluctuations before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the trend of the capital market, and focus on varieties around 3Y and the opportunity for the narrowing of the spread between 30Y - 10Y Treasury bonds [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Price - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the central bank's net investment in the open - market exceeded 90 billion yuan. The MLF operation scale reached 90 billion yuan, with an over - quota renewal of 70 billion yuan. The total net investment of 3M and 6M repurchase with ownership transfer this month was 30 billion yuan. The funds price showed differentiation, with DR001 falling below 1.4%, DR007 rising to 1.59%, and the 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit rate remaining basically flat [9]. 3.2 Primary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, 87 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance amount of 744.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds continued to increase. Since the beginning of the year, the issuance term of local bonds has generally been extended, which may be a long - term feature throughout 2026, aiming to take advantage of the low - interest - rate window period and relieve the repayment pressure in recent years [11]. 3.3 Secondary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the bond market continued the previous strong - biased oscillation trend. In terms of the term structure, the yield of Treasury bonds around 5Y declined the most; the 1Y Treasury bonds were relatively weak, mainly affected by the overall increase in the funds price since the beginning of the year; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds recovered. There were few substantial positive events in the bond market during the statistical period. Three pieces of information on the news were positive: the winning bid rate of MLF in January might decline; the market expected the central bank to launch a new overnight monetary policy tool; the market expected the central bank to significantly increase bond purchases in January [13]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is little fundamental data information at the beginning of the year, mainly focusing on the January PMI data and inflation data. If the January PMI month - on - month data improves again, the upper limit of the interest rate oscillation range needs to be further adjusted upward. - In terms of funds, the central bank has released trillions of funds through repurchase with ownership transfer and MLF. It is expected that the repurchase with ownership transfer in February will continue to be renewed in an over - quota manner, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival will decrease accordingly. The funds price may continue to rise slightly at the beginning of February [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced a temporary suspension of trading for the convertible bond "Nai Pu Zhuan 02" (123265) after its trading price increased by 30% or more compared to the issuance price [1] Group 1 - The trading suspension began at 9:30 AM and is set to resume at 2:57 PM [1]

1. Report Information - Report Title: "Big Asset Morning Report" - Report Date: January 30, 2026 - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Bond Market - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in major economies vary, with the US at 4.233, the UK at 4.510, France at 3.418, etc [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield is 3.561, the UK's is 3.706, and Germany's is 2.078 [3]. 2.2 Exchange Rate Market - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real is 5.190, against the South African rand is 15.738, etc [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB is at 6.952, the off - shore RMB is at 6.945, and the RMB central parity rate is 6.977 [3]. 2.3 Stock Market - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 is at 6969.010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 49071.560, and the Nasdaq is at 23685.120 [3]. 2.4 Credit Bond Index - The euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index is at 267.857, and the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index is at 413.160 [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - **Closing Prices**: The A - share index closes at 4157.98, the CSI 300 at 4753.87, the SSE 50 at 3110.91, etc [4]. - **Price Changes (%)**: The A - share index rises 0.16%, the CSI 300 rises 0.76%, the SSE 50 rises 1.65%, while the ChiNext falls 0.57% and the CSI 500 falls 0.97% [4]. 3.2 Valuation - **PE (TTM)**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 is 14.31, the SSE 50 is 11.82, the CSI 500 is 38.58, etc [4]. - **Quarter - on - Quarter Changes**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 has a 0.11 quarter - on - quarter change, the SSE 50 has 0.15, and the CSI 500 has - 0.37 [4]. 3.3 Risk Premium - **1/PE - 10 - year Interest Rate**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 is - 0.64, and that of the German DAX is 2.46 [4]. - **Quarter - on - Quarter Changes**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 has a 0.02 quarter - on - quarter change, and the German DAX has 0.12 [4]. 3.4 Fund Flows - **Latest Values**: The net fund outflow of A - shares is - 952.92, the main board is - 653.65, and the ChiNext is - 134.31 [4]. - **Average of the Past 5 Days**: The average net fund outflow of A - shares in the past 5 days is - 1146.55, the main board is - 874.95, and the ChiNext is - 205.36 [4]. 4. Transaction Amount and Basis 4.1 Transaction Amount - **Latest Values**: The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 32300.08, the CSI 300 is 9179.66, and the SSE 50 is 2948.88 [5]. - **Quarter - on - Quarter Changes**: The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has a 2645.98 quarter - on - quarter change, the CSI 300 has 885.52, and the SSE 50 has 422.65 [5]. 4.2 Basis of Main Contracts - **Basis**: The basis of IF is 30.13, IH is 19.49, and IC is - 0.24 [5]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratio of IF is 0.63%, IH is 0.63%, and IC is - 0.00% [5]. 5. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices**: The T2303 closes at 108.25, TF2303 at 105.88, T2306 at 108.26, and TF2306 at 105.91 [5]. - **Price Changes (%)**: T2303 rises 0.04%, T2306 rises 0.06%, while TF2303 has no change and TF2306 has a - 0.00% change [5]. 6. Capital Interest Rate - **Interest Rates**: R001 is 1.4381%, R007 is 1.6245%, and SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5910% [5]. - **Daily Changes (BP)**: R001 has a - 17.00 BP daily change, R007 has a 1.00 BP change, and SHIBOR - 3M has no change [5].

美国短期和中期国债周四小幅上涨，长期国债基本持平，此前美国早盘避险情绪冲击股市。与此同时， 许多大宗商品抹去涨势，VIX指数跃升，进一步增强了市场对短期国债的避险需求。440亿美元7年期国 债标售吸引的需求接近预期。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，2年期至5年期美国国债收益率日间走低约2个基点，2s10s利差走阔约1个基点， 5s30s利差走阔约2个基点；10年期国债收益率接近4.23%，日间下跌不到2个基点。 7年期国债中标收益率较发行前交易水平高0.4个基点，对市场影响甚微；一级交易商获配10.9%，高于 近期平均水平10.2%，直接竞标人获配22.2%，低于前六次平均水平28%，间接竞标人获配66.9%，高于 前六次平均水平61.8%。 责任编辑：李桐 美国短期和中期国债周四小幅上涨，长期国债基本持平，此前美国早盘避险情绪冲击股市。与此同时， 许多大宗商品抹去涨势，VIX指数跃升，进一步增强了市场对短期国债的避险需求。440亿美元7年期国 债标售吸引的需求接近预期。 截至纽约时间下午3：47，美国2年期国债收益率报3.557%。 美国5年期国债收益率报3.8123%。 美国10年期国债收益率报4.2313%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the rhythm of primary supply and the characteristics of secondary trading, to provide an overview of the local government bond market [10][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), local government bonds issued a total of 231.571 billion yuan, including 64.421 billion yuan in new special bonds and 117.848 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "replacing implicit debts" and "ordinary/project income" [10]. - As of January 23, 2026, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in January was about 254.272 billion yuan, accounting for 29.45% of the local bond issuance scale in that month [10]. - In terms of issuance pricing, the issuance interest rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds decreased by 2.2BP, 3.3BP, and 5.8BP respectively, with a relatively large weekly decline. The spread between new bonds and Treasury bonds of the same maturity has been significantly compressed, especially for the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties, which have reached the lowest level since late August last year [14]. - At the beginning of the year, Sichuan, Shandong, and Zhejiang were the main regions for local bond issuance. Shandong and Hubei had a proportion of local bonds with a maturity of over 10 years exceeding 80%, and the average issuance interest rates in both regions were above 2.3%. In particular, the issuance interest rate of local bonds in Hubei reached 2.44% [17]. 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Local government bonds have risen with shrinking trading volume for two consecutive weeks. Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes rose by 0.24% and 0.72% respectively. The over - 10 - year local bonds significantly outperformed high - grade credit bonds, while the 7 - 10 - year varieties slightly outperformed Treasury bonds of the same maturity. The latter's cumulative increase in the past four weeks was second only to high - grade credit bonds, indicating its stability [20]. - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Zhejiang, Shandong, etc. were actively traded, but the overall trading volume in the market decreased. The trading maturity was still lower than the average level in December, but the margin has rebounded. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region were mostly between 1.8% and 2.25%, while local bonds in Shandong and Liaoning had excess returns of 2.37% and 2.42% respectively [20].

Group 1 - Slovenia's first panda bond is imminent, with preliminary approval from the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) and expected issuance within approximately eight weeks, depending on market conditions [4] - The issuance of panda bonds is strategically significant for Slovenia, as it diversifies financing channels and strengthens bilateral relations with China, similar to the successful Samurai bonds issued in Japan [4][6] - Slovenia aims to enhance cooperation with various countries, accelerated by recent global political changes, particularly those stemming from the United States [7] Group 2 - Slovenia is actively developing a national AI platform and collaborating with major AI platforms to leverage the transformative potential of AI across various sectors, including healthcare and education [9][10] - The country recognizes the importance of participating in AI development rather than solely focusing on regulation, aiming to reshape its priorities in the context of AI [10] - Slovenia sees significant opportunities for collaboration with China in sectors such as insurance, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals, leveraging its skilled workforce and competitive industries [15][17]

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Jan. 28, 2026 in New York City.U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday as investors assessed the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady.The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than one basis point to 4.267%, while yields on the 2-year Treasury note remained steady at around 3.584%. The 30-year Treasury yield rose about three basis points to 4.89%.One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices move in opposite dir ...

Core Insights - Major economies are adjusting their holdings of US Treasury bonds, with China's reduction being particularly notable. This trend reflects concerns about the US economic outlook and the strategic considerations of various countries [1][3]. Group 1: China's Actions - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, selling a total of $313 billion from December to March, followed by an additional $462 billion in April, bringing its total holdings down to approximately $1 trillion, the lowest level since 2010 [3]. - The reduction in China's holdings is attributed to a combination of factors, including concerns over the US economy and the impact of rising interest rates [3][5]. Group 2: Other Countries' Actions - Japan, once the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, has also been actively reducing its holdings, with a notable reduction of $739 billion in March and an additional $149 billion in April, bringing its total to around $1.2 trillion [3]. - The UK, as the third-largest holder, reduced its holdings by $222 billion in April, contributing to a total reduction of $835 billion among China, Japan, and the UK in that month [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes since 2022 have raised the yields on US Treasury bonds, with the two-year yield reaching 3.22% and the ten-year yield at 3.31%, prompting concerns about the US's ability to manage its debt burden [3][5]. - The US national debt has surged to over $30 trillion, exceeding the country's GDP, raising questions about the sustainability of such debt levels [5]. - High inflation rates in the US, which have fluctuated between 8.3% and 8.6% in recent months, are contributing to fears of an economic slowdown and potential recession, influencing countries to reduce their exposure to US Treasury bonds [7].