国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产未明确，反弹高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251215 | 8 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月15日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 棕榈油：减产未明确，反弹高度有限 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,608 | -0.55% | 8,496 | -1.30% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,240 | -0 ...

从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 上周五 CBOT 大豆收跌，尽管中国不断购买购买美豆，但美豆销售进度仍然偏慢，南美大豆产区也迎来 较好降雨。周末国内豆粕现货小幅回落。上周豆粕成交尚可、提货较好，消息面称通关延迟。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 204.45 万吨，上周压榨大豆 203.75 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 9.13 环比上 升 0.64 天。 杨泽元 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷主产区预计降雨量也开始增加，重点关注其 1 到 3 月天 气表现。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震荡为主。 农产品早报 2025-12-15 ...

1. Sugar Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core Viewpoint The sugar price is expected to remain weak in the coming week due to ample supply prospects, with the futures market price weakening and the basis sugar price following suit. There is a lack of positive factors to drive a price rebound [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.71% and 0.59% respectively. The ICE raw sugar主力 rose by 1.62%. The 1 - 5 spread of sugar decreased by 6.19%. The main contract's open interest increased by 6.51%. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.75% respectively. The Nanning basis increased by 9.57%, while the Kunming basis decreased by 12.00%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 73.87%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 68.63%. The national cumulative sales rate decreased by 24.75%, while the cumulative sales rate in Guangxi increased by 20.05%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 7.40%, the industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 80.43%, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 110.00%. Sugar imports increased by 38.89% [2]. 2. Cotton Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core Viewpoint The international cotton market maintains a volatile trend, while the domestic cotton market is expected to be optimistic in the medium - to - long - term but faces constraints in the short - term. The cotton price has limited downside space but faces pressure above, with attention paid to the pressure around 14000 - 14100 [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, and the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.18%. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.27%. The 5 - 1 spread of cotton increased by 250.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 13.59%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 4.79%, and the valid forecasts increased by 3.43% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B and the CC Index: 3128B increased, while the FC Index: M: 1% decreased. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract and 3128B - 05 contract increased [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The shortage increased by 28.7%, the industrial inventory increased by 0.9%, the import volume decreased by 10.0%, the bonded area inventory decreased by 1.8%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year decreased by 66.7%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 0.1%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 3.9%. The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 3.1%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products increased by 19.5%, the year - on - year of monthly retail sales increased by 34.0%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products increased by 9.0%, the year - on - year of monthly export increased by 110.8%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 5.4%, and the year - on - year of export increased by 31.5% [5]. 3. Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core Viewpoint In the short - term, the corn price is relatively firm due to farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the upward space is limited by supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling rhythm in the producing areas and the downstream replenishment situation [7]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.04%, the basis increased by 1.75%, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The Shekou bulk grain price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit remained unchanged, the CIF price decreased by 0.13%, and the import profit increased by 1.01%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 42.09%. The open interest decreased by 1.05%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.30% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 increased by 0.12%, the Changchun and Weifang spot prices remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 4.48%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.77%, the starch - corn 01盘面 spread increased by 1.43%. The Shandong starch profit increased by 5.26%. The open interest decreased by 1.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. 4. Oil and Fat Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 4.2 Core Viewpoint Palm oil may continue to weaken, and there is a risk of falling below 4000 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures maintain a volatile and weak adjustment trend. CBOT soybean oil is mainly in a narrow - range volatile adjustment. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the demand is limited. The basis quotation decline may be limited in the short - term [10]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged, the Y2605 futures price decreased by 0.34%, and the basis increased by 8.43% [10]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.15%, the P2605 futures price decreased by 0.55%, and the basis decreased by 216.67%. The import cost decreased, and the import profit increased [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20%, the OI2605 futures price increased by 0.09%, and the basis increased by 2.74% [10]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread changed to varying degrees [10]. 5. Pig Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 5.2 Core Viewpoint The spot pig price is stable, and the downward - support ability is enhanced with the increasing demand for pickling in the south. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market. The overall supply pressure is still large, and the price is hard to improve [12]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 31.25%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.68%, the price of pig 2603 increased by 0.94%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 4.17%. The main contract's open interest increased by 0.89%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions changed to varying degrees. The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 1.48%, the daily strip price remained unchanged, the piglet price decreased by 2.94%, the sow price decreased by 0.03%, the slaughter weight decreased by 0.15%, the self - breeding profit increased by 2.59%, the purchased - breeding profit increased by 7.21%, and the fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [12]. 6. Egg Industry 6.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 6.2 Core Viewpoint The egg market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply this week. The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited [15]. 6.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 01 contract decreased by 2.13%, the price of the egg 02 contract decreased by 1.58%, the basis increased by 106.60%, and the 1 - 2 spread decreased by 11.36% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.20%, the egg - chick price decreased by 1.75%, the culled - hen price increased by 2.85%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90%, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. The terminal consumption is less than expected, and the demand side is insufficient. The production - link inventory and the circulation - link inventory remained unchanged compared with the previous day [15]. 7. Meal Industry 7.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 7.2 Core Viewpoint The medium - to - long - term price of US soybeans is not optimistic. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the unilateral trend is suppressed. Attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread [17]. 7.3 Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The Jiangsu soybean meal price increased by 1.31%, the M2605 futures price increased by 0.73%, the basis increased by 6.45%, and the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased by 40.9% [17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The Jiangsu rapeseed meal price remained unchanged, the RM2605 futures price increased by 1.03%, the basis decreased by 27.59%, and the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased by 2.68% [17]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 0.84%, the basis increased by 15.02%. The price of Jiangsu imported soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the soybean - two main contract decreased by 0.26%, and the basis increased by 7.41% [17]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - meal inter - period spread, the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread, the soybean - to - meal ratio, and the oil - to - meal ratio changed to varying degrees [17].

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 点评 | 品种 | | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米主力 | | 2603 合约震荡收十字星，期价在 20 日均线支撑处企稳，期价震 米价格继续下探。港口贸易商集中下调 10 元/吨，下游饲料企业目前头寸天数较 | 震荡 | | 荡收小阳线，均线系统对价格提供支撑。从月间表现看，玉米近月 | | 2601 合约持 | | | 续减仓，资金向 | | 3 月合约转移。从现货市场的表现来看，东北玉米价格略弱运行， | | | 部分地区农户售粮积极性略有提高。昨日华北地区深加工企业玉米价格稳中偏弱 | | | | | 运行，但基层价格基本维持稳定，市场供需处于动态平衡的状态。基层购销活跃 | | | | | 度依然不高，粮点收购量较前期有所好转，但依然处于较低的水平。销区市场玉 | 玉米 | | | | 高，库存充足，对下跌行情采购积极性不高，市场整体购销活跃度一般。技术上， | | | | | 玉米 | | 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，日线有支撑，周线期价上行遇 | | | 阻，动力 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face downward pressure if it fails to hold above 4,100 ringgit, with support at 4,000 ringgit. In China, there is a risk of downward break - out for palm oil futures, with support around 8,000 yuan. - For soybean oil, the EIA has lowered its forecasts for renewable diesel production in 2025 and 2026. However, Fed rate cuts and the rebound of BMD palm oil support CBOT soybean oil. In China, the spot basis is shifting to the May contract, and the factory's soybean oil inventory is high but may decrease in Q1 2026. The basis of the January contract may decline slightly, while that of the May contract is supported [1]. Meal and Grains - U.S. soybeans lack trading highlights, with slow - growing Chinese demand and strong South American crop expectations. The market is not optimistic about medium - to - long - term U.S. soybean prices. - In China, the soybean meal supply is loose, but the market is speculating on longer soybean clearance times. The 1 - 5 positive spread has strengthened, and attention should be paid to its performance [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - There is some reluctance to sell in the market, and the spot price is stable. The southern pickling demand is increasing, but there are uncertainties in the December - January market due to potential pandemic impacts and secondary fattening. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is hard to improve. The futures market is struggling to rise and has fallen in the past two days. Monitor the pandemic situation [4]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure below 15 cents per pound. India's sugar production in Maharashtra is increasing. The overall raw sugar price is bearish. In China, the sugar - making process in Guangxi and Yunnan is accelerating, new sugar supply is increasing, and the market is weak. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. Corn and Corn Starch - The price of corn in the northern port is rising slightly due to insufficient supply, while prices in the Northeast and North China are stable or weak. The demand side is cautious, with deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly making rigid purchases. The corn futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the continuity of supply [10]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, with a slight decrease in the number of laying hens in November but still at a high level. The market is moving goods at a normal pace, but demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly with limited downside [14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to weak U.S. export demand. In China, Zhengzhou cotton futures face increasing hedging pressure, and the spot basis is weakening, putting downward pressure on prices. However, the downstream demand for cotton is strong, limiting the downside. Attention should be paid to the 14,000 resistance level [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,600 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 8,268 yuan, up 0.56%. The basis was 328 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,964 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan on December 11, up 0.46%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,656 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis was - 75.51%. The import cost was 9,102.8 yuan, and the import profit was - 447 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,000 yuan on December 11, up 3.09%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,443 yuan, up 1.65%. The basis was 401 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 3,490 [1]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,060 yuan on December 11, up 0.66%. The futures price of M2605 was 2,750 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 310 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 23,830 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan on December 11, up 1.26%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,323 yuan, down 0.26%. The basis was 87 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,173 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was - 233 yuan [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the main contract of live pigs (2605) was 11,820 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of the 2603 contract was 11,220 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 600 yuan, down 13.21%. The main contract's open interest was 154,716, up 3.54%, and the warehouse receipts were 523, up 40.21% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or slightly increased. For example, the price in Henan was 11,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses increased by 0.61%, and the white - strip price decreased by 0.99%. The number of fertile sows decreased by 1.12% month - on - month [4]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,358 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.86 cents per pound, down 0.27%. The 1 - 5 spread was 113 yuan/ton, up 9.71%. The main contract's open interest was 391,467, up 62.10%, and the warehouse receipts were 611, up 54.29% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Kunming and Nanning was stable. The Nanning basis was 115 yuan, down 14.81%, and the Kunming basis was 75 yuan, down 21.05%. The imported sugar price from Brazil (in - quota) was 4,100 yuan/ton, up 2.07%, and (out - of - quota) was 5,195 yuan/ton, up 2.12% [8]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, sales increased by 9.17%, the national sales ratio decreased by 2.60%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20%. The sugar import volume increased by 38.89% [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On December 11, the price of the corn 2601 contract was 2,243 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The basis was 57 yuan, up 16.33%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 24 yuan, unchanged. The import profit was 287 yuan, down 3.43%. The number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 11.10%, and the open interest was 2,216,177, up 0.38% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract was 2,523 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The basis was 67 yuan, up 15.52%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan, down 1.92%. The starch - corn 01 spread was 280 yuan, down 3.78%. The Shandong starch profit was 19 yuan, down 26.92%, and the open interest was 297,821, down 0.43% [10]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the egg 01 contract was 3,144 yuan/500KG, down 0.29%. The price of the 02 contract was 2,968 yuan/500KG, down 0.40%. The 1 - 2 spread was 176 yuan, up 1.73%. The basis was - 57 yuan/500KG, up 33.37% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.09 yuan per catty, up 0.64%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.85 yuan per chick, up 5.56%. The price of culled chickens was 3.86 yuan per catty, up 1.58%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.40, up 3.90%, and the breeding profit was - 22.62 yuan per chick, up 20.35% [14]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The ICE cotton main contract was 64.00 cents per pound, down 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 50.00%. The main contract's open interest was 460,016, down 3.02%, and the warehouse receipts were 2,967, down 0.10% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The CC Index: 3128B was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 12,898 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1,070 yuan/ton, down 7.94%, and the 3128B - 05 contract spread was 975 yuan/ton, down 7.14% [16]. - **Industry Data**: The inventory in Xinjiang increased by 28.7%, the industrial inventory increased by 0.9%, the import volume decreased by 10.0%, and the cotton shipment volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6%. The textile and clothing retail and export data showed growth [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound oscillations. In the long - term, after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically due to increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports [3] - For sugar, the fundamental driving force is downward, but the current low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. However, the possibility of new lows cannot be ruled out [6] - For pulp, recent pulp futures prices have risen strongly due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. But the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 975, down 75 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1153, down 71 from the previous day [1] - In Pakistan, the demand of local yarn mills is weak, and the lint price is range - bound. The ginning mills are reluctant to sell high - grade inventory, and some low - grade resources offer opportunities for yarn mills to replenish stocks. The yarn mills face heavy operating pressure and squeezed profits. The 2025/26 annual spot price of the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) on the 10th was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere brings short - term supply pressure, and weak global textile consumption will keep ICE US cotton under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers. Domestically, the 2025/26 domestic cotton is expected to increase in production. With the harvest nearing completion in Xinjiang, the cotton output forecast has risen again. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and Zhengzhou cotton will be suppressed by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but improved spinning profits and manageable finished - product inventory limit the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate within a range. In the long - term, due to expanded downstream production capacity and increased domestic cotton consumption, and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation in the new year is not expected to be too loose. Pay attention to the changes in the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton (-1.56%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 125, up 83 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of SR05 + 95, up 83 from the previous day [4] - According to Williams, as of the week of December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 53 to 44. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5131 million tons, down 17.14% from the previous week. The quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) decreased by 21.3%, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port decreased by 8.97%, and at Paranaguá Port decreased by 47.77% [4] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the global bumper harvest suppresses the market, but the negative factors are mostly reflected in the price. There is limited short - term downward space, and no sign of a reversal in the short - to - medium term. For Zhengzhou sugar, domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the import volume from July to October was large. The control of syrup has tightened, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital on the market [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,586 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (+2.76%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 4, down 60 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,115 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 471, down 40 from the previous day [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was strong. The futures price rose, and traders raised prices to improve profits. The downstream procurement was rational, and the trading volume was limited. The prices of imported softwood pulp in some regions rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and those of imported hardwood pulp rose by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The trading of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp was flat, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and overhauls. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons of softwood pulp will be shut down temporarily. On the demand side, the October European port wood pulp inventory decreased, indicating improved demand. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is low, and the inventory in domestic ports is at a historical high [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The recent strong rise in pulp futures prices is due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining B - needle warehouse receipts on the market [9]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕偏强震荡 豆一：调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 12 月 11 日 CBOT 大豆日评：对华销售大豆，技术买盘活跃，大豆上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 12 月 12 日消息：周四，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货连续第二个交易日上涨，主要反映了技术性买盘 活跃，美国向中国出售大豆，邻池玉米和小麦上涨带来比价支持。美国农业部补发的第七份出口销售数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 国 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | 涨 跌 | （元/吨） | +50（+1.21%） | （-0.46%） | DCE豆一2601 | 4173 | 4148 | -19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场延续 "近强远弱"分化格局。核心驱动在于紧现货与弱预期之间的博弈。 美豆延续低位震荡，美豆对华出口销售成关键变量，但阿根廷关税下调挤压美豆市场份额，叠加南美 巴西丰产预期，远月进口成本支撑下移。国内市场呈现结构性矛盾：油厂开机率阶段性回落，大豆拍 卖高价成交印证短期补库需求。12 月进口大豆到港或达 950 万吨，国储持续抛储，05 合约对应南美 大豆集中上市周期，基差已提前走弱。短期豆类期价仍将保持震荡偏弱运行格局，近强远弱持续。 专业研究·创造价 ...

豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,656 | 涨跌幅 1.33% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,546 | 涨跌幅 -1.27% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,268 | 0.56% | 8,000 | -3.24% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,599 | 1.65% | 9,390 | -2.18% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,064 | 0.07% | 4,040 | -0.57% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.32 | -0.56% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 180,995 | -220676 | 143,530 | -21,841 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 101,511 | -28,218 | 203,342 | -10,246 ...

2025年12月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产未明确，反弹高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕偏强震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251212 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：降温提涨不及预期，仓单增量 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 棕榈油：减产未明确，反弹高度有限 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 马来西亚联昌国际证券公司（CIMB Securities）表示，马来西亚12月棕榈油库存料环比增长3.0%至293 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘 ...