1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product sector is under pressure due to limited supply - demand improvement. For different products, the market conditions vary, and short - term and long - term trends need to be considered separately [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,819 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton. In December 2025, India's textile exports were 1.77 billion US dollars, down 1.62% year - on - year, while clothing exports increased to 1.504 billion US dollars, up 2.89% year - on - year. The total textile and clothing exports in December 2025 increased slightly by 0.40% to 3.274 billion US dollars. From April to December 2025, the total textile and clothing exports were 26.531 billion US dollars, slightly down 0.26% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks, but the large - scale listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak, so short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, and the downward space is limited. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton season had a significant increase in production, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, downstream orders are weak, and the industrial chain inventory, especially the grey fabric inventory, has increased significantly. The annual supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - The strategy for cotton is neutral. In the short term, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] 3.2 Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,144 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (0.75%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,195 yuan/ton, unchanged. In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, up 26.6% from the same period in 2024. From April to December in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative yield was 74.7 tons/hectare, down 4.6% from the same period in the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. In the short - term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar, but the global surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season suppresses the market. In the long - term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi are fully operational, supply is seasonally increasing, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high [4] Strategy - The strategy for sugar is neutral. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, the domestic inventory pressure may not have peaked, and there is a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the sugar price should be treated with an idea of oscillating and bottom - building [6] 3.3 Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (0.30%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,000 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly organized. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation, the terminal effective demand was insufficient, and the raw material procurement of downstream paper mills was cautious, resulting in a long - term high inventory in domestic ports [7] Strategy - The strategy for pulp is neutral. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and the foreign - exchange price has increased, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As the Brazilian soybean harvest progresses, the CNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure from a bumper harvest. In Argentina, the weather has been dry recently, so the subsequent weather conditions need to be monitored. In the short - term, the 105 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still at a high level, and the de - stocking speed before the Spring Festival is expected to accelerate. The soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. Recently, the trading volume of far - month soybean meal has increased, and the提货 performance is normal. Due to the easing of China - Canada relations, the price of rapeseed meal has dropped, reducing the feeding cost - effectiveness of soybean meal [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills are presented in a graphical form, showing their trends over the years from 2019 to 2026 [6][7][8] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 600, and the spread of the main contract on the futures market is 497. The 2025 soybean CNF premium and the import soybean gross profit are also shown, including data from different months in Brazil [14] International Data - As of January 17th, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 2.3%, compared with 0.6% last week, 1.2% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 3.2%. The expected shipment volume in Brazil in January is higher than last year. As of January 14th, the soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 93.9%, slightly behind the same period last year. The proportion of soybean crops in good condition was 61% (65% last week, 38% in the same period last year). The weather in Argentina has been dry since January, and the excellent - good rate of soybeans has declined [12] Basis Data - On January 21st, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang was 495 in Dalian (up 11), 435 in Tianjin (up 11), 395 in Rizhao (up 11), 355 in Zhangjiagang (down 9), 355 in Dongguan, 415 in Zhanjiang (up 11), and 415 in Fangchenggang (up 11). The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 214 (up 16). M3 - 5 was 327 (up 10), and RM5 - 9 was - 38 (up 15) [5] 开机 and压榨情况 - The开机 rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented in a graphical form, showing their trends over the years from 2020 to 2026 [9][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3]. - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [5]. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal industry, although the inventory has significantly declined but remains higher than the same period last year, and the recent auctions of imported soybeans have been favorable, resulting in a relatively loose domestic supply. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans further consolidates, and future supply pressure persists, so attention should be paid to the South American soybean harvest and U.S. soybean export situations [1][2]. - For the corn industry, as the shipping situation has improved to some extent, the inventories in the north - south ports have slightly increased. However, due to the high price in the southern port, feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment and still mainly purchase on - demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future focus should be on spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal 3.1.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2725 yuan/ton, a change of - 11 yuan/ton or - 0.40% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2228 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton or - 0.04% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 435, a change of + 11 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 325, a change of + 1 from the previous day. In Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 335, a change of + 1 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 202, a change of + 1 from the previous day [1]. - Market Information: On January 20, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters slightly raised the export forecast for January soybeans to 379 million tons, up from 373 million tons a week ago. As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 133.7 million tons, with a market forecast of 100 - 140 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 159.3 million tons, with an initial value of 153 million tons [1]. 3.1.2. Market Analysis The soybean meal inventory has declined significantly but is still higher than last year. The good situation of imported soybean auctions has led to a relatively loose domestic supply. The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure continues. The focus should be on the South American soybean harvest and U.S. soybean export situations [2]. 3.1.3. Strategy The strategy is cautiously bearish [3]. 3.2. Corn 3.2.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2283 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton or + 0.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2551 yuan/ton, a change of + 1 yuan/ton or + 0.04% from the previous day [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 62, a change of - 3 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 79, a change of - 1 from the previous day [3]. - Market Information: On January 20, as of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 148.3 million tons, with a market forecast of 100 - 140 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 150.4 million tons, with an initial value of 149 million tons [3]. 3.2.2. Market Analysis As the shipping situation has improved, the inventories in the north - south ports have slightly increased. However, due to the high price in the southern port, feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment and still mainly purchase on - demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future focus should be on spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4]. 3.2.3. Strategy The strategy is neutral [5].

| CNF到岸价: | | --- | | 指标 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 2026/1/22 申万期货品种策略日报- 油脂油料 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8044 | 8832 | 8947 | 2725 | 2377 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 12 | 84 | -1 | -11 | 6 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.15% | 0.96% | -3.15% | -0.40% | 0.25% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现值 | -364 | 62 | -7 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The U.S. biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting global vegetable oil prices. Among the three major oils, palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has bottomed out and stabilized. Against the backdrop of U.S. interest rate cuts, with abundant global funds and strengthened inflation expectations, the financial attributes of vegetable oils will be further stimulated. It is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset for soybean and palm oils and buy on dips, and pay attention to the rebound strength of rapeseed oil and hold short - term long positions. For double - meal products, the 05 contracts should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils 1. Market Review - On January 21, news that Indonesia revoked the licenses of 28 companies related to palm oil plantations led to concerns about palm oil supply. Palm oil led the rise in the vegetable oil sector, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was the weakest. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes compared to the previous day, with some contracts increasing in price and positions, and some decreasing [1]. 2. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns. The more actively traded March crude oil futures contract rose $0.26 or 0.4%, settling at $60.62 per barrel. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The U.S. EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons, with final approval expected in Q1 2026. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%. - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 15 were 435,882 tons, the same as the previous period. Exports to China decreased by 41,000 tons to 17,000 tons compared to the previous month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, while the Non - PSO total allocation increased. The B50 road test started in December 2025 and is expected to last for 6 months. The mandatory addition of B50 is expected to start in the second half of 2026, later than the market's previous expectation. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1034 million tons, a weekly decrease of 38,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.10%. The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes [1][2]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the U.S. biodiesel policy has pushed up the price of U.S. soybean oil, which shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern. In Malaysia, the good export data of palm oil in the first 15 days of January and the revocation of 28 palm plantation licenses in Indonesia have boosted the price of Malaysian palm oil futures. Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Although customs have tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, the auction of old imported soybeans has been fully sold, and oil mills have sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, the negative data from Southeast Asia has been digested, and the market is more focused on the U.S. biodiesel policy expectations, along with improved export data, which has led to a rise in palm oil prices. For rapeseed oil, the strong performance of related international oils has limited the downside, and with the market's acceptance of the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the downside space of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil is limited, and it mainly follows a wide - range oscillating pattern [2]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly increase long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. B. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 1. Market Review - On January 21, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the prices of the two - meal futures stabilized. Technically, they entered the oversold zone and rebounded. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different changes compared to the previous day, with all contracts increasing in positions [2]. 2. Important Information - Since the Sino - U.S. trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has adjusted the global soybean outlook for the 2025/26 season, with increased production, increased crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Brazil and the U.S. have increased production, while China's production has decreased. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the previous week and the same period last year. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69%, also faster than the previous week and the same period in previous years. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans was 71.9%. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, a decrease from the previous forecast, and the crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, an increase from last year. - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a significant increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. - As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the inventory of imported soybeans in China decreased, the inventory of soybean meal decreased, and the inventory of imported rapeseed remained unchanged. The inventory and contract volume of imported crushed rapeseed meal remained at zero. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully sold, with a high成交 rate and a certain成交 price. - As of January 21, the spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis prices also decreased. The crushing margins and soybean arrival costs are provided [2][3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the slow progress of soybean harvesting in South America has led to a rise in U.S. soybean futures prices. The strong Brazilian soybean premium and active downstream pricing and pick - up have supported the spot market, but the loose supply - demand situation and high crushing margins have led foreign investors to increase short positions. Domestically, the fixed - price of oil mills has remained stable, and the near - month basis has slightly strengthened. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm before the Spring Festival. For rapeseed meal, the negative impact of import trade of Canadian rapeseed meal has been digested, and the price has rebounded technically. The spot price adjusts with the market [4]. 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The 05 contracts of double - meal products should be traded within a range with a bottom - oscillating mindset, and new short positions for the 09 contracts can be considered after a rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. - Arbitrage trading: No trading opportunities are recommended currently [4].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．昨日玉米03主力收盘涨幅0.31%至2283元/吨，全国玉米现货平均现货价格报价2281元/吨，现货价格暂无变化。 2．昨日21日，中储粮吉林分公司拍卖玉米4.6万吨，成交率100%，近日拍卖及采销成交密集，成交率攀升明显，春节备货或将全面启动。但深加工方面利 润普遍同比降低约30%，对补库节奏形成部分压制。 3．据海关最新数据，2025年国内玉米进口量265万吨，同比减少81%。 观点总结：玉米03主力观察2250附近的支撑，上方2330，月内中性偏多。 豆粕：中性 1．持续降雨导致巴西大豆收割放缓，隔夜CBOT大豆反弹。预报显示南锥体区域降雨"北多南少"特征突出，未来一周巴西北部与中西部普遍面临强降雨， 第二周雨势预计边际减弱；巴西南部以及阿根廷核心产区几乎没有降雨，第二周预计有所恢复，关注阿根廷干旱发展的可能性； 2．美盘反弹从成本端给粕价带来边际利好，同时对未来国内大豆供应可能阶段性偏紧的担忧以及储备投放节奏的不确定性亦提供一定支撑。但另一方面， 当前巴西远月船期对盘压榨利润相对可观，暗示若南美到港压力兑现，仍可能通过粕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing season in February and the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. With the reduction of imported sugar supply in China and sugar prices at a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area in the new season and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to digest, so it's recommended to wait for a correction before going long [8]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish. Although China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices, it is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major negative for domestic rapeseed prices. With protein meal prices at previous lows and many negative news, short - term fluctuations will increase, so it's better to wait and see [12]. - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak with high production, low exports, and high inventory. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of Malaysian production, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. Short - term waiting is recommended [17]. - For eggs, in the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate within a limited range due to sufficient supply and the approaching seasonal price increase. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations but face uncertainties, so pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20]. - For pigs, in the short - term, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the large spread between fat and standard pigs leads to hoarding, supporting the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on far - end prices [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the May contract was 5144 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5270 - 5340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86% [2]. - As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from 13.044 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons in the previous week [2]. Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the sugar - crushing season in February. After the bearish impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. With the reduction of imported sugar supply in China and sugar prices at a low level, the short - term downward space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [3] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. The spot price of CCIndex 3128B was 15,819 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton [5]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year [5]. - As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week but up 8.6 percentage points from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year [5]. - The January USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast but an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast but an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year [7]. Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, due to the reduction of planting area in the new season and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to digest, so it's recommended to wait for a correction before going long [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2725 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day [10]. - In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase. Brazil supplied 82.32 million tons, a 10.3% year - on - year increase, and the US supplied 16.82 million tons, a 24% year - on - year decrease [11]. - As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 30.64 million tons. The US exported 1.22 million tons of soybeans to China that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 8.12 million tons [11]. - As of the week of January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week [11]. Strategy - The January USDA report is slightly bearish. Although China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices, it is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major negative for domestic rapeseed prices. With protein meal prices at previous lows and many negative news, short - term fluctuations will increase, so it's better to wait and see [12] Oils Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8044 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8832 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 8947 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.01% from the previous trading day [14]. - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% [14]. - As of the week of January 16, the domestic inventory of the three major oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week [14]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. Production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. Exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [16]. Strategy - The current fundamentals of palm oil are weak with high production, low exports, and high inventory. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of Malaysian production, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. Short - term waiting is recommended [17] Eggs Market Information - Most egg prices across the country remained stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main production areas remained at 3.65 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, and most traders were more confident in the future. The inventory at different levels varied, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. It is expected that most egg prices across the country will remain stable, with a few rising [19]. Strategy - In the short - term, the near - month contracts may fluctuate within a limited range due to sufficient supply and the approaching seasonal price increase. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations but face uncertainties, so pay attention to the pressure after over - valuation [20] Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.28 yuan to 13.07 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.21 yuan to 12.81 yuan/kg. The demand in the south was insufficient to support the market, and the market transaction rate was poor. Pig farmers may continue to cut prices, and the pig price may decline. The temperature drop in the north may stimulate demand, and the room for further price decline may be limited. It is expected that the pig price will be stable in some areas and decline in others [22]. Strategy - In the short - term, low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the large spread between fat and standard pigs leads to hoarding, supporting the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on far - end prices [23]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global market for soybeans has a relatively loose supply-demand situation, so there may still be pressure on overall prices [4][5]. - The domestic soybean meal market has shown some stability after a continuous decline, and the rapeseed meal market has a relatively strong trend, but there may be greater pressure after the supply recovers [3]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to face pressure in the medium term, and the price of rapeseed meal is expected to move downward [5][7]. - The trading strategy suggests a bearish approach for single - sided trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and a short straddle strategy for options [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally declined. For example, the 01 soybean meal contract closed at 2895, down 8; the 01 rapeseed meal contract closed at 2208, down 9 [3]. - The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions mostly increased. For example, the spot basis of 01 soybean meal in Tianjin increased from 440 to 450 [3]. - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The near - month inter - monthly spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was relatively strong [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the oil - meal ratio increased [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Market - The U.S. soybean carry - over inventory was raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels. The quarterly grain inventory data was also bearish [4]. - Brazil's new soybean crop is growing well, and exports are expected to increase significantly. The old crop has good export and crushing performance [4]. - Argentina's old soybean crop has a relatively large yield, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market supply was sufficient. As of January 16, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.9942 million tons, and the operating rate was 54.86% [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The demand has gradually weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, and the rapeseed supply is at a low level [6]. 3. Logical Analysis - The U.S. soybean market has large inventory pressure, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand. It is expected to move downward in a volatile manner [7]. - Brazil's soybean price is expected to face pressure, and South American quotes have started to decline [7]. - The domestic soybean supply has uncertainty, and the spot market shows some support. However, the upward space is limited [7]. - The rapeseed meal market is expected to move downward, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [7]. 4. Trading Strategy - Single - sided trading: Adopt a bearish approach [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Use a short straddle strategy [8]. 5. Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazilian soybeans in different shipping months showed different changes. For example, the pressing profit in March decreased by 13.17 compared with the previous day [9].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The overall market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak. Oils have downward support and may receive additional upward drivers later [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,336,684 tons, compared with 989,489 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far is 19,335,069 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.2%, reaching 45.1% of the annual export target [1] - The first - quarter arrival estimate in China remains at 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.2 million tons), slightly lower than the three - year average. The second - quarter arrival estimate slightly increases to 36.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.6 million tons) [1] - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is low. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is unclear. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest is good, the main contract may decline further [1] Group 3: Oil Market - The market expects Malaysia's palm oil production in January to decline by 15% - 17%, and exports to increase significantly due to seasonal demand before the Spring Festival and Ramadan in February. If these factors persist until March, the ending inventory may drop significantly [2] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [2] - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton cargo of Canadian rapeseed after Canada's Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which boosts Canadian export prospects and may weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2] - Although Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan failed, there are significant buyers below. The crushing cost of rapeseed under the 15% tariff is still high, so the vegetable oil futures have strong support below. The U.S. biofuel policy in early March may bring additional upward drivers to the oil sector [2]

| | | | V V & SUIL FUIURES | | 2026年01月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | なな☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | なな☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约大幅减仓,价格下跌。国产大豆本周三中储粮举行双向竞价专场,计划竞价拍卖数量3.3万 吨，全部成交，成交低价为3950元/吨，成交均价为3950元/吨,溢价为零。溢价程度不如前期表现。持续关注 政策端 ...