免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -10 -180 理论价差 223 281 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 210 280 理论价差 211 323 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/06/17 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.63 3.87 4.58 0.94 1.19 0.79 伦（三连） 3.65 3.86 4.83 0.95 1.25 0.76 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "な女女" [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ and "な女女" [1] - Alumina: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "ななな" [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "文文文" [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "なな☆" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "な女女" [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not specified clearly in a standard way, marked as "ななな" [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of non - ferrous metals shows different trends in various sub - industries. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and cost factors, with corresponding investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Tuesday. After delivery, the spot copper was reported at 78,715 yuan. After the month - change, the premium in Shanghai was 240 yuan, lower than the same period last month. The London copper oscillated steadily relying on the MA20 moving average. The visible inventories in the US and London markets showed a strong seesaw effect. The total inventory of the two markets was about 300,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 - 50,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year. Short - sellers should consider changing positions to the 2508 contract and stop losses above 79,500 [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. After delivery and month - change, the spot premium in East China was 210 yuan. On Monday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 200 tons, while that of aluminum rods increased by 400 tons, showing signs of a slowdown in destocking. The current strong reality and weak expectation deepened the Back structure, which was beneficial to long - positions in the short term. After the index position soared to 600,000 lots, beware of the change in capital direction. After Shanghai aluminum filled the previous gap, there was no strong upward driving force technically. Cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy widened to 1,000 yuan, providing a good opportunity to narrow the price difference. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 on the disk fluctuated between 400 - 500 yuan. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina dropped to 3,100 - 3,200 yuan. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. The domestic operating capacity had increased for four consecutive weeks to over 9.2 million tons. Under the pressure of over - supply, the futures continued to be weak [2] Zinc - The capital congestion of Shanghai zinc was still high. Some short - sellers took profits, driving the disk to rebound. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased by 13,600 lots to 280,500 lots, and the capital outflow was 245 million yuan. Consumption was advanced, and there was a downward pressure on demand in June compared with the previous month. The previously overhauled smelters resumed production one after another, and new production capacity was put into operation. Against the background of increasing supply and weak demand, zinc should be mainly short - sold on rebounds [3] Aluminum - Due to weak demand and the expectation of some secondary aluminum smelters to resume production, long - sellers reduced their positions on Tuesday. Shanghai aluminum failed to effectively break through the key pressure level of 17,000 yuan. The SMM1 aluminum was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the near - month disk, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The downstream showed good enthusiasm for inquiring at low prices. The spot import window was still closed. The tight supply of aluminum concentrate and waste batteries provided strong cost support. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [5] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined steadily, and the market trading was active. In the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,500 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 250 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel was reported at 933 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support weakened significantly. In terms of inventory, the inventory of nickel ferro - nickel increased by 3,000 tons to 34,600 tons, the pure nickel inventory remained flat at 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory increased by 25,000 tons to 999,000 tons. Shanghai nickel was in a short - selling trend, and short - sellers should mainly hold their positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated and closed down. The spot tin was reported at 264,000 yuan. Both domestic and foreign tin prices were blocked at the MA60 moving average. Indonesia's tin exports continued to increase in May, and the production capacity affected by the natural gas supply interruption in Malaysia in April restarted, depressing the tin price. Overall, although the technical pattern of the tin market was stable, the trend direction was not significant between the supply - demand reality and expectations. Some short - sellers reduced their positions and held them in the far - month contracts [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuated at a low level. The market trading was dull. The downstream material manufacturers had weak purchasing enthusiasm and no further intention to stock up, waiting for the price to decline further. The price game between the upstream and downstream led to a continuous low trading activity in the market, and the psychological price gap between buyers and sellers was obvious. The total market inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 133,500 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 400 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 500 tons to 58,000 tons, and the intermediate link increased inventory by 1,000 tons. The short - selling core driving force was stagnant, and it was regarded as a short - term shock [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,360 yuan/ton. Currently, the quotations of silicon enterprises remained stable. The disk price was inverted below the industry's lowest cost line and lower than the manufacturers' quotations. Last week, the shipment situation of the delivery warehouse improved, and the downstream had certain replenishment behavior. Some short - sellers on the disk closed their positions to boost the rebound, and some long - sellers took profits and left the market. The current market sentiment was cautious, and the upward and downward spaces were limited. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of production of large factories at the beginning of the month advanced, and there might be further production increases in Xinjiang in the future. Although the downstream demand improved marginally, the increase was difficult to offset the increase in supply. The main trend was still bearish, and it was advisable to hold a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures oscillated and closed down, and the market trading atmosphere was dull. The SMM re -投料 spot quotation was 35,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The sentiment in the downstream silicon wafer market was relatively low, and the production schedule in June was expected to be reduced by about 2GW. In contrast, the production schedule of polysilicon in June increased by 4,800 tons month - on - month to about 100,000 tons. If the production continued to increase, it would further increase the inventory pressure. Silicon wafer enterprises generally suffered losses, and their acceptance of high - price polysilicon raw materials decreased. It was expected that the polysilicon spot price would face pressure, and the disk trend would remain oscillating weakly [10]

免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 110 -235 理论价差 43 169 铅 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 120 190 理论价差 101 213 跨品种套利跟踪 2025/06/13 铜/锌 铜/铝 铜/铅 铝/锌 铝/铅 铅/锌 沪（三连） 3.59 3.87 4.64 0.93 1.20 0.77 伦（三连） 3.67 3.85 4.86 0.95 1.26 0.76 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铝持续增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价低开低走后在 7.85 万一线企稳，今日铜价上午小幅反 弹，午后再度走弱。短期白银冲高回落，铜价也随之回落。产业层 面，6 月 12 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 14.38 万吨，较上周去库 1.37 万吨，7-8 月差走强，给予铜价支撑。短期关注 7.9 万一线多空博 弈。 沪铝 今日铝价增仓上行，主力期价由 2.02 万拉升至 2.04 万。周三以 来铝价增仓上行趋势明显，7-8 月差也持续上行。近 ...

国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16650 1961 8.48 三月 16850 1990 11.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.91 -847.59 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/12 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 320 230 40 -200 理论价差 497 892 1296 1699 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 5 -230 -375 -470 理论价差 214 333 453 573 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 170 55 -35 -100 理论价差 211 324 436 549 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 5 10 -5 15 理论价差 209 314 420 525 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 290 510 630 850 锡 5-1 价差 -150 理论价差 5495 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/12 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -305 15 理论价差 74 560 锌 当月 ...

| | 20250612申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating system [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined in the given star - rating system [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (indicating a bias towards a certain trend but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions and market analysis for various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday saw Shanghai copper close higher with a positive line. The spot copper price rose to 79,310 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai and Guangdong was 90 yuan. Traders are advised to focus on the US copper price. Short - position holders from the previous period should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss should be considered above 79,500 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum rose, and the spot premium in East China slightly expanded to 90 yuan. The aluminum market continued to reduce inventory this week, maintaining a low - inventory state. The demand faces challenges from seasonal decline and pre - exported volume. Shanghai aluminum tested the resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan again in the oscillation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Cast aluminum alloy followed the rise of Shanghai aluminum, and the monthly spread structure was consistent with that of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai ADC12 quotation remained stable at 19,400 yuan. It is expected to be mainly in a short - term oscillation, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum may still decline during the off - season. The alumina spot has few transaction news recently, and the spot index remained stable around 3,300 yuan. After the industry profit is restored, the supply elasticity is large, and the domestic operating capacity has returned to over 90 million tons. The futures are expected to remain weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The Guinea ore price is stable at 75 US dollars, corresponding to the cost in Shanxi around 3,000 yuan. It is not advisable to short - sell due to the large futures discount [3] Zinc - The phased alleviation of tariff concerns in the Sino - US London economic and trade consultations led to short - position reduction, driving the rebound of Shanghai zinc. The average price of SMM 0 zinc was reported at 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium to the delivery - month contract changed to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. By the end of the trading session, the discount to the delivery - month contract was once as high as 185 yuan/ton. With only 3 trading days left until delivery, it is profitable to deliver goods to the warehouse. Attention should be paid to the change in the registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Fundamentally, the supply of ore has become looser, but the TC is generally at a low level. Shanghai zinc still has strong support around 21,500 yuan/ton. However, the raw material inventory of domestic smelters is at a high level of 27.7 days, and the output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to 590,000 tons compared with the previous month. The consumption performance in the off - season is weak, and Shanghai zinc is still mainly recommended for short - selling on rallies [4] Tin - Shanghai tin rose with a positive line, using the MA60 moving average as the boundary for morphological strength. The current tin price was 265,800 yuan, and the premium of the spot to the delivery - month contract was 510 yuan. The market expects the domestic smelter tin output to continue to decline month - on - month in May and June. Some short positions were reduced or shifted to far - month contracts [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded, and the market trading was average. The overall market inventory remained stable at a high level, and the intermediate links increased inventory. The downstream replenishment and upstream inventory reduction continued, and the mentality of traders in the intermediate links changed positively, with the spot bottom - fishing sentiment continuing. The latest quotation of Australian ore was 607.5 US dollars, and the decline rate slowed down, indicating resistance at the ore end. The output of the mid - stream increased again, with a month - on - month increase of 7%. Technically, the decline of the lithium carbonate futures price slowed down, and the open interest indicated risk accumulation. The decline rate of Australian ore slowed down, and the core driving force of short - selling was delayed. It is recommended to participate in the rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, closing at 7,560 yuan/ton, and the market trading was active. The spot price remained stable compared with the previous day. Driven by the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang, the supply of industrial silicon in June is expected to increase month - on - month. On the downstream demand side, the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises in June both increased month - on - month, but the monthly supply - demand balance estimate shows that industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory accumulation in June. In terms of the trading - floor performance, it is in a phased oscillatory adjustment driven by technical factors, and the short - cycle indicators show a large callback pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up at the current position, and attention should be paid to the resistance performance of the MA20 moving average above [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose with a reduction in positions, and the market trading was average. The spot price remained stable. According to SMM, the latest production schedule of polysilicon in June was revised up to 101,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. However, the production schedules of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells both decreased, and the fundamental improvement was limited. In terms of the trading - floor performance, it is close to the lower support level, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for a driving force [11]

Group 1: Core Views Copper - The copper price is expected to be strong, with attention on the long - short battle at the May high [4] - The overnight call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to ease Sino - US relations, which is positive for copper prices [4] - The marginal increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper drags down the copper price [4] Aluminum - The aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate above 20,000, with narrowing amplitude, and pay attention to inter - monthly arbitrage opportunities [5] - The overnight call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to ease Sino - US relations, which is positive for aluminum prices [5] - High profits of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants bring hedging pressure, while strong downstream demand supports the price [5] Nickel - The nickel price is expected to rebound, with attention on the long - short battle at the 122,000 mark [6] - Strong short - term supply from Philippine mines supports the price, while weak downstream demand for stainless steel exerts pressure [6] Group 2: Industry Dynamics Copper - The expected copper rod开工率 in June will drop to 47.11%, with a month - on - month decline of 3.51 percentage points [8] - On June 5, Mysteel's electrolytic copper spot inventory was 157,500 tons, an increase of 18,200 tons compared to the 29th and 2,100 tons compared to the 3rd [8] Aluminum - On June 6, the total inventory of bauxite at 9 domestic ports was 21.2 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared to the previous week [9] - On June 5, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 508,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the 29th and 18,000 tons compared to the 3rd [9] Nickel - On June 6, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai Nickel 2507 contract [10] - The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,390 yuan/ton [10] - The mainstream premium for Russian nickel was + 700 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,690 yuan/ton [10] Group 3: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][16][23] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][46]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided 3. Summary by Metals Gold (AU) - **Prices**: Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 782.42 yuan/gram, COMEX gold main contract at 3376.90 dollars/ounce, and London gold spot at 3346.48 dollars/ounce [1] - **Differences**: Domestic basis (gold T+D - main contract) was 2.24 yuan/gram, overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 58.80 dollars/ounce [1] Silver (AG) - **Prices**: Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8463 yuan/kilogram, COMEX silver main contract at 1.60 dollars/ounce, and London silver spot at 34.25 dollars/ounce [1] - **Differences**: Domestic basis (AG(T+D) - main contract) was -5 yuan/gram, overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was -0.06 dollars/ounce [1] Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: Shanghai Copper (CU) main contract closed at 78200 yuan/ton, LME copper 3M at 9635.50 dollars/ton, and COMEX copper main contract at 4.87 dollars/pound [1] - **Spreads**: Shanghai copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was -160 yuan/ton, international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was -940 yuan/ton [1] - **Premiums**: LME copper 0 - 3 premium was 2.23 dollars/ton, SMM1 electrolytic copper price was affected by various regional premiums [1] Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: Shanghai Aluminum (AL) main contract closed at 20075 yuan/ton, LME aluminum 3M at 2483.50 dollars/ton, and alumina main contract at 3063 yuan/ton [1] - **Spreads**: Shanghai aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was -40 yuan/ton, alumina - aluminum monthly spread (A000 - A001) was 25 yuan/ton [1] - **Premiums**: Regional spot premiums varied in different locations, and aluminum bauxite had different spot prices [1] Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: Shanghai Zinc (ZN) main contract closed at 22420 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3M at 2723 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads**: Shanghai zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was -55 yuan/ton [1] - **Premiums**: Regional spot premiums and import premiums were provided [1] Lead (PB) - **Prices**: Shanghai Lead (PB) main contract closed at 16670 yuan/ton, LME lead 3M at 1989 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads**: Shanghai lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was -10 yuan/ton [1] - **Premiums**: Refined lead Shanghai premium was 5 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: Shanghai Nickel (NI) main contract closed at 122590 yuan/ton, LME nickel 3M at 15515 dollars/ton, and stainless steel main contract at 12720 yuan/ton [1] - **Spreads**: Shanghai nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was -290 yuan/ton, stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was 25 yuan/ton [1] - **Premiums**: Regional spot premiums for different types of nickel were given [1] Tin (SN) - **Prices**: Shanghai Tin (SN) main contract closed at 257940 yuan/ton, LME tin 3M at 31720 dollars/ton [1] - **Spreads**: Shanghai tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was -160 yuan/ton [1] - **Premiums**: Regional spot premiums and tin ore processing fees were provided [1]