Group 1 - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 11,810.0 yuan, closing at 11,830.0 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.43% [1] - Green Dahuah Futures expects synthetic rubber to maintain a strong oscillating trend, supported by strong upstream butadiene prices and rumors of domestic butadiene resource exports boosting bullish sentiment [2] - Huatai Futures adopts a cautious bullish stance, noting that the supply remains stable with no changes in upstream facilities, while the recovery in downstream tire operating rates is observed, although demand remains lackluster [3] Group 2 - The supply pressure for synthetic rubber is slightly alleviated as upstream butadiene prices rebound, compressing the profits of styrene-butadiene rubber close to the breakeven point, potentially limiting the rebound in private production [3] - The technical analysis indicates that BR prices are still in an upward channel, with attention needed on resistance levels near previous highs [2] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by overseas situations affecting the energy and chemical sectors, with expectations of a strong oscillating market behavior [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, while BR is rated cautiously bullish [12] Core Viewpoints - The decline in the operating rate of downstream tire factories led to a weakening of spot prices mainly for Thai mixed rubber. This week, spot prices are expected to stabilize slightly with the rebound of the tire factory operating rate. Due to the overseas seasonal peak season, the pressure on domestic arrivals remains high, suppressing spot prices. In the off - season of downstream demand, domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The raw material preparation of overseas upstream factories may support raw material prices, and the cost - side support for rubber is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream tire factories [12] - The upstream Maoming Petrochemical plans to restart on January 24. Recently, there have been no changes in upstream facilities, and the supply this week remains stable. With the rise in the price of upstream butadiene, the profit of butadiene rubber has been compressed close to the break - even point, which may limit the short - term increase in private production, slightly easing the supply - side pressure. The operating rate of downstream tires has rebounded, but factory orders are average, and there are no bright spots in demand. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not obvious, and it is expected to follow the upstream butadiene raw material price and remain strong [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,995 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 12,190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,920 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,845 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 11,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Import: In December 2025, China imported a total of 953,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 18.4%. In 2025, China imported 8.525 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [2] - Automobile production and sales: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2%. In the whole year of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a historical high [2][4] - Global natural rubber: The ANRPC's November 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in November would decrease by 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] - Tire exports: From January to November, China's automobile tire exports were 751,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export value was 126.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3] - Tire factory operation: Last week, the production scheduling of most domestic tire factories did not run normally, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The shipment was slow, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to recover. With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, the overall output will increase. Some enterprises will continue to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase [3] - Natural rubber export: In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were 198,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% [5] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 15, 2026, the RU basis was - 295 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 995 yuan/ton (-15), the NR basis was 602 yuan/ton (+49); the whole latex was 15,700 yuan/ton (-150), the mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (-150), the 3L spot was 16,100 yuan/ton (-100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,920 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (-50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton (-150) [6] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheets were 60.88 Thai baht/kg (+0.23), Thai latex was 58.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 52.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.50), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.90 Thai baht/kg (+0.70) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.02% (+7.52%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.53% (+8.75%) [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 568,173 tons (+19,829), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,256,792 tons (+24,259), the RU futures inventory was 104,490 tons (+3,900), and the NR futures inventory was 56,952 tons (-1,007) [8] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 15, 2026, the BR basis was - 340 yuan/ton (+60), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,550 yuan/ton (+0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 11,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton (-50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 684 yuan/ton (-43) [9] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.68% (+0.54%) [10] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 8,040 tons (+1,270), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,900 tons (+550) [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - BR is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the bullish logic remains unchanged; investors should focus on the strategy of going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Overview - The closing price of BR2603.SHF was 12,190 yuan/ton, down 0.49% or 60 yuan/ton from the previous value; the settlement price was 12,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% or 5 yuan/ton [3] - The domestic position volume was 99,183 lots, down 1.39% or 1,393 lots; the trading volume was 150,035 lots, down from 177,031 lots [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 26,330 lots [3] - The month - to - month spreads and cross - month spreads showed various changes, such as the "continuous one - continuous two" spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down 40% [3] - The cross - variety spreads also had different changes, for example, the BR - RU spread was 105 yuan/ton, up 13.73% [3] Raw Material Prices - WTI crude oil price was 58.25 US dollars/barrel, up 1.95 US dollars or 3.46%; Brent crude oil price was 62.70 US dollars/barrel, up 2.31 US dollars or 3.83%; SC crude oil price was 433 yuan/barrel, up 16.50 yuan or 3.96% [3] Factory Prices - As of January 15, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's sales companies' BR9000 was in the range of 12,100 - 12,300 yuan/ton [3] Market Prices - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton [3] - The market prices in different regions such as Hangzhou, Jiangsu, and Shandong showed different degrees of change [3] Industry Chain - The ex - factory prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales and PetroChina's main sales companies increased by 200 yuan/ton in this cycle [3] - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber production increased significantly due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export transactions at the butadiene end [3] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remained high, and the spot resources of most brands were sufficient, with little pressure on the supply side [3] - The mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss [3] - Traders actively tried to raise prices, but downstream terminal procurement was negative, and the price - pressing was firm. Although the price center of the spot side gradually moved up, the trading volume was poor [3] Strategy Operation - Unilateral: BR is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the bullish logic remains unchanged [3] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Cotton and Sugar Markets - **Key Trends**: The cotton market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations due to U.S.-China relations, inventory tightness, and price volatility. The sugar market in Brazil is influenced by drought conditions and production choices between sugar and ethanol. Cotton Market Insights - **Price Fluctuations**: Domestic cotton prices in China saw a rapid decline before the Qingming Festival, followed by a recovery due to tight inventory and strong consumption. The first quarter was strong, but prices dropped significantly in March and April due to high tariffs, reaching annual lows. [1][2][3] - **Global Supply and Demand**: The USDA reported a slight adjustment in global cotton supply surplus for the 2025/26 season, with a total production estimate of 26 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons year-on-year. Major producers like China and Brazil had good harvests, while the U.S. production remained at a multi-year low. [4][60] - **Export Dynamics**: U.S. cotton exports decreased by 13% year-on-year, with China’s contracts down by 54%, while Vietnam's increased by 46%. [4][61] - **Consumption Resilience**: Despite global supply being slightly loose, cotton consumption remained resilient, particularly in major textile exporting countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, which saw significant increases in operating rates. [5][66] Sugar Market Insights - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In 2025, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 2.36% year-on-year, but the sugar production increased by 0.86% due to a higher sugar-to-ethanol production ratio. Drought conditions significantly impacted sugarcane yield. [17][18] - **Impact of Drought**: The drought in Brazil has historically led to significant declines in sugarcane yield, with the 2025 yield dropping to 75.67 tons per hectare, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year. [19][79] - **Market Dynamics**: The sugar market is expected to experience a rebound after a prolonged decline, with predictions of a price increase in the third quarter of 2026 due to tightening supply conditions. [77] Key Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, continue to influence market dynamics, especially in cotton procurement. [62][74] - **Weather Risks**: Future weather patterns, particularly the potential for drought due to El Niño, pose risks to both cotton and sugar production in major producing regions. [28][33][34] - **Inventory Levels**: Monitoring commercial inventory levels in China is crucial, as a tight inventory could lead to price increases, while high levels could suppress prices. [71][74] Additional Insights - **Chinese Cotton Market**: The domestic cotton market is characterized by strong demand and stable inventory levels, with production estimates ranging from 7.51 million to 7.73 million tons for the new season. [68][9] - **Future Production Policies**: There are policies aimed at reducing cotton planting areas in China, but achieving these targets may be challenging due to farmers' preferences for cotton over other crops. [69] - **Global Sugar Supply**: The sugar market is expected to remain oversupplied, with Brazil's production choices heavily influencing international sugar prices. [80][81] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends from the conference call records, focusing on the cotton and sugar markets, their dynamics, and the associated risks.

Core Insights - The national production material market prices increased by 1.0% from January 5 to January 11 compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Metal Prices - Non-ferrous metal prices continued to rise, with aluminum, copper, and zinc increasing by 5.2%, 3.3%, and 2.8% respectively [2] Group 2: Rubber Prices - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively [3] Group 3: Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight increase, with urea and compound fertilizer rising by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively - Steel prices showed a slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and channel steel priced at 3521 yuan, 3712 yuan, and 3560 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively [4] Group 4: Coal Prices - Coal prices exhibited slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 777 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, while anthracite and coking coal decreased by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [4] Group 5: Chemical Raw Material Prices - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene increasing by 1.1%, while sulfuric acid and soda ash decreased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [4] Group 6: Oil Prices - Wholesale prices of finished oil experienced a slight decline, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [5]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable compared to the previous week, with a slight increase in production material prices by 1.0% [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw minor increases, with citrus, watermelon, and bananas rising by 1.7%, 1.4%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for meat products experienced slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 18.67 yuan per kilogram, increasing by 0.9%, while beef and lamb decreased by 0.2% [1] - Average wholesale price for 30 types of vegetables was 5.68 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.9%, with specific vegetables like zucchini, cabbage, and tomatoes dropping by 8.2%, 5.0%, and 4.4% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices for non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with aluminum, copper, and zinc increasing by 5.2%, 3.3%, and 2.8% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices experienced minor increases, with urea and compound fertilizers rising by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices showed slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and channel steel priced at 3521 yuan, 3712 yuan, and 3560 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 777 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, while anthracite and coking coal decreased by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Prices for basic chemical raw materials experienced minor fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene increasing by 1.1%, while sulfuric acid and soda ash decreased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Wholesale prices for finished oil products saw slight declines, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] - For rubber, it has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 4.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.89%, at 444.90 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 34.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.33%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell 15.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%, to 3087.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.45 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 413.68 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 8.98 million barrels to 251.01 million barrels, a 3.71% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 129.24 million barrels, a 0.02% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.74 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.55% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 43.14 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2273 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 17 yuan [5][10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 61 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 13 yuan/ton, closing at 1801 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 3.1 - ton increase from the previous week, a 2.5% increase. The spot prices of some rubber products also changed [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 124 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. Factory and social inventories increased [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5585 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene widened by 59 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 7250 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the active styrene contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 7103 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene strengthened by 113 yuan/ton to 147 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 tons to 10.06 tons. The weighted operating rate of the "Three S" products on the demand side was 40.90%, a 0.11% increase [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6840 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis strengthened by 25 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 6 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6592 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The basis strengthened by 48 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread narrowed by 37 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and PX CFR fell 16 dollars to 881 dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 3). The 3 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating rate was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian operating rate was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, a 5 - ton decrease from the previous month [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 5050 yuan. The basis was - 64 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan (- 8). The PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot and futures processing fees increased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis was - 140 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 yuan (+1). The overall supply - side operating rate was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and the East China departure was 0.79 tons on January 14. The port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of some raw materials changed [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33]

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI February contract closing down by $2.83 to $59.19 per barrel, a drop of 4.56% [2][17] - Brent March contract closed down by $2.76 to $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of 4.15% [2][17] - The easing of tensions in Iran led to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium, contributing to the largest single-day drop in oil prices since October [2][17] - The U.S. announced new sanctions against Iran, which are expected to have a lasting impact, although the likelihood of escalating conflict in the short term has decreased [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 1.33% to 2586 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) fell by 0.48% to 3087 yuan/ton [3][18] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory increased by 65,000 barrels (0.26%) to 25.473 million barrels, while Fujairah's inventory rose by 114,200 barrels (12.83%) to 10.041 million barrels [3][18] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains stable, while the high-sulfur market shows some support due to recovering demand [3][18] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2602) increased by 1.38% to 3168 yuan/ton [5][19] - Domestic asphalt shipments rose by 1.0% to 317,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt increased by 0.1% to 6.8% [5][19] - The asphalt market is expected to experience a balance between weak demand and strong cost expectations, with prices likely to stabilize [5][19] Rubber - The main rubber contract (RU2605) fell by 165 yuan/ton to 15,995 yuan/ton, with similar declines in other rubber products [6][20] - Despite a rebound in prices due to macroeconomic expectations, the low production season is expected to limit price elasticity [6][20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5048 yuan/ton, down 1.33%, while EG2605 closed at 3817 yuan/ton, down 1.29% [7][21] - The PX futures contract closed at 7130 yuan/ton, down 1.82%, with spot prices at $881/ton [7][21] - Polyester demand is expected to decline due to maintenance shutdowns and the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday [7][21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2240 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269/ton [8][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to declining port inventory pressures, although geopolitical tensions may increase volatility [8][22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene (PP) in East China ranged from 6430 to 6550 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][24] - HDPE film prices increased by 136 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton, while LDPE film prices rose by 457 yuan/ton to 9024 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover before the Chinese New Year [9][24] PVC - PVC prices showed mixed trends across regions, with prices for different grades ranging from 4630 to 4900 yuan/ton [10][25] - Overall supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [10][25] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, with the main contract closing at 1801 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.28% [11][26] - Market prices in Shandong and Henan increased to 1760 yuan/ton, with a slight rise in daily production [11][26] - Demand is expected to be supported by winter storage and pre-spring planting needs, although high prices may suppress purchasing sentiment [11][26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fell by 2.05% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable manufacturer quotes [12][27] - The industry’s operating rate increased by 2.43%, indicating a recovery in supply levels [12][27] Glass - Glass futures prices experienced a slight decline, closing at 1086 yuan/ton, down 0.55% [13][28] - The market remains cautious with limited demand support, and inventory levels are decreasing [13][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai producing area is still in the peak production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The total inventory accumulation rate has narrowed month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation intensity remains high. The inflow of goods at Qingdao Port shows a seasonal reduction trend, with the overall inflow decreasing month - on - month, and the downstream rigid demand improving, increasing the overall outflow. In terms of demand, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises have increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, the output of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high due to the support of foreign trade orders, and the overall equipment production schedule is expected to remain basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to manage inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15750 - 16400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12700 - 13250 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15995 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12850 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan. The Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3145 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 198380 lots, down 1357 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 69423 lots, down 1250 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 53013 lots, up 2438 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11091 lots, up 2003 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 105590 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1935 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1925 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1010 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13428 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 578 yuan/ton, up 273 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.7 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 58 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 16.88 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 30.22 million tons, up 4.58 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.47%, up 0.26 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.75%, up 0.21 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.9%, up 0.62 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.91%, up 0.64 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating downward, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to below the 16,000 yuan/ton line, closing down 1.33% at 15,995 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a moderately strong oscillation pattern [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,318 yuan/ton and fell to a minimum of 2,254 yuan/ton, closing down 0.53% at 2,273 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread converged to 1 yuan/ton. With differences between bulls and bears emerging, methanol futures maintained a stable oscillation pattern [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures 2603 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price rose to a maximum of 460.5 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 443.4 yuan/barrel, closing down 0.69% at 446.6 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cooled down, the crude oil market gave back its premium, and the weak supply - demand fundamentals took the lead. In the short term, oil prices maintained an oscillation pattern [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. Among them, the general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.80%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16% [8]. - As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will recover in the next cycle [8]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The annual automobile export exceeded 7 million vehicles, reaching 7.098 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The total sales volume of the heavy - truck market in 2025 reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.38%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.20%, a month - on - month slight increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0424 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 8,700 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.05%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.30%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.89%, a week - on - week slight increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.12%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.33 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.17%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 264 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1593 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 9,300 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 18,600 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 49,000 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.753 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 58,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 272,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 422.4 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.391 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 9.767 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.585 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 745,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 413.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 214,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 95.3%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 3.6 percentage points [12]. - As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 57,352 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 7,239 contracts and a slight decrease of 1,419 contracts or 2.41% compared with the December average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 120,686 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 6,220 contracts and a significant increase of 15,227 contracts or 14.44% compared with the December average [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,995 yuan/ton | - 165 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | +165 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,280 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,273 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 425.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 446.6 yuan/barrel | - 1.4 yuan/barrel | - 21.2 yuan/barrel | +1.1 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, and operating rate trends, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [14][16][18]