Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 150.74% but a recent decline of 4.24% over the past five trading days [1] Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The company's main business revenue composition includes: refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders reached 304,200, an increase of 28.08% from the previous period [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved operating revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 669.5 million shares, an increase of 47.472 million shares from the previous period [3] - The top five circulating shareholders include various ETFs, with notable changes in holdings, such as a decrease of 3.6543 million shares for Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and a new entry of E Fund CSI 300 ETF holding 86.4742 million shares [3]

Market Performance - On November 3, the market rebounded with total trading volume at 2.11 trillion, a decrease of approximately 210.7 billion from the previous trading day[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.29%[3] - On November 4, the market continued to rise with a trading volume of 2.13 trillion, down about 220 billion from the previous day[1] Sector Trends - Traditional sectors like steel and coal saw significant gains, while sectors such as non-ferrous metals, home appliances, and automobiles experienced slight declines[1] - Technology-related sectors, particularly media and computing, showed a notable increase in both volume and price, indicating strong market interest[1] Capital Flow - On November 3, net inflow in the Shanghai market was 10.83 billion, while the Shenzhen market saw a net outflow of 2.55 billion[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were power grid equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and IT services, while the top outflow sectors included batteries, industrial metals, and securities[4] Policy and Economic Developments - The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 400 billion RMB/70 trillion KRW, effective for five years[5] - Zhengzhou aims to develop an influential seed industry by 2027, targeting a scale of 5.5 billion RMB in the industry chain[6] Industry Dynamics - The Southern Power Grid's market has achieved over 70% of its trading volume through market-based transactions, with green certificate trading accounting for 63% of the national total[10] - The ETF market has seen explosive growth, with an increase of over 2 trillion in scale within 10 months, reaching a total of 5.74 trillion RMB[15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain profitability due to high aluminum prices, and the continuous increase in dividends highlights its value [1][4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 44.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.14% [4][6] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted to 6.068 billion, 7.538 billion, and 8.592 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 37.5%, 24.2%, and 14.0% respectively [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 14.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.13%, and a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.31% [4][5] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum increased by 515.7 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, while the average price of alumina rose by 107.5 yuan/ton [5] - The company’s gross profit margin slightly decreased due to rising alumina prices, but the outlook for Q4 2025 is positive with expected profit growth driven by high aluminum prices and declining alumina costs [5] Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend distribution of 1.11 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing approximately 40.10% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase from 32.23% in 2024 [6] Financial Metrics and Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.75, 2.17, and 2.48 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.9, 11.2, and 9.8 [4][7] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 42.669 billion yuan in 2023 to 59.157 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.1% [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound on November 3, with the three major indices rising despite a quick rotation of hot sectors, while the non-ferrous metals sector led the market decline [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector ETF (159876) saw its price drop nearly 4% intraday but ultimately closed down 1.43%, with a total trading volume of 46.18 million CNY, an increase of 24% compared to the previous day [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) recorded a net subscription of 10.2 million shares throughout the day, indicating that funds are actively positioning themselves during the pullback [1] Group 2: ETF Composition and Performance - As of October 31, the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) had a total size of 513 million CNY, making it the largest among three products tracking the same index [1] - In the top 10 constituent stocks of the ETF, aluminum companies dominated, with eight out of ten stocks showing gains, including Zhongfu Industrial, which rose over 6% [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that investing in the entire non-ferrous metals sector may be more beneficial than focusing solely on gold, as the sector is essential for both traditional and emerging industries [3] - The fourth quarter is expected to see tight supply conditions driving prices of copper and cobalt higher, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [3][4] - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to enter a new era, driven by the transition from traditional industries to strategic emerging industries [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which has a diversified weight distribution across copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a risk diversification strategy [6]

Group 1 - The board of 万国黄金集团 (03939.HK) proposed a stock split, converting each existing share with a par value of 0.1 HKD into four shares with a par value of 0.025 HKD, resulting in a total share capital of 1 billion HKD divided into 40 billion shares post-split [1] - As of November 3, 2025, the stock closed at 30.74 HKD, with a trading volume of 2.07 million shares and a turnover of 62.51 million HKD [1] - Investment banks predominantly rate the stock as a buy, with three firms issuing buy ratings in the last 90 days and an average target price of 40.64 HKD [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization of 万国黄金集团 is 33.986 billion HKD, ranking 8th in the industrial metals sector [1] - Key financial metrics show a Return on Equity (ROE) of 25.96%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.95%, and a net profit margin of 53.64%, compared to an industry average of -2.61% [2] - The company has a debt ratio of 17.53%, which is much lower than the industry average of 78.66%, indicating strong financial health [2]

Core Insights - On November 3, 2023, a total of 42 stocks were involved in institutional trading, with 13 stocks showing net buying and 29 stocks showing net selling [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Net Buying - The top three stocks with the highest institutional net buying were: - Asia-Pacific Pharmaceutical with a net buying amount of 106 million yuan, representing a 9.96% increase [2] - Dingsheng New Materials with a net buying amount of 82.79 million yuan, representing a 6.64% increase [2] - Aerospace Intelligent Equipment with a net buying amount of 69.42 million yuan, representing a 19.98% increase [2] Group 2: Institutional Net Selling - The top three stocks with the highest institutional net selling were: - Sanofi (Sanofi Guojian) with a net selling amount of 211 million yuan, representing a 7.88% increase [4] - Siwei Liekong with a net selling amount of 125.28 million yuan, representing a 9.87% decrease [4] - Kaimete Gas with a net selling amount of 107.61 million yuan, representing a 9.96% decrease [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent administrative penalties imposed on delisted companies such as Fan Hai Holdings and Qingdao Zhongcheng highlight the ongoing trend of strict regulatory oversight in China's capital markets, emphasizing that "delisting does not equate to exemption from accountability" [1][4]. Regulatory Actions - In October, seven delisted companies faced regulatory actions, including administrative penalties and investigations, indicating a comprehensive approach to enforcement across the IPO, operation, and delisting phases [1][4]. - Qingdao Zhongcheng was penalized for long-term systematic financial fraud and failure to disclose significant litigation in a timely manner, resulting in a total fine of 20.6 million yuan [5][7]. - Fan Hai Holdings received penalties for failing to disclose defaults on financing contracts, with overdue debts amounting to 5.943 billion yuan in 2022 and 2.6 billion yuan in 2023, leading to a total fine of 8.4 million yuan [7][8]. Investor Protection Mechanisms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has strengthened investor protection measures, particularly in cases of major violations leading to forced delisting, encouraging proactive compensation from controlling shareholders [8][9]. - The introduction of various compensation mechanisms, including special representative litigation and advance compensation, aims to address investor losses effectively [8][9]. - The ongoing legal reforms and regulatory updates are designed to enhance the legal framework for investor protection, ensuring that accountability for delisted companies is firmly established [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangxi Copper is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [3][5][13] Core Views - Jiangxi Copper's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 35.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 139.1 billion yuan, a 12.8% increase [1][6] - The company's smelting business is under short-term pressure due to a decline in copper concentrate processing fees, but overall profitability remains manageable [1][6] - The company aims for a cathode copper production target of 2.37 million tons in 2025, with an estimated production of 1.8 million tons in the first three quarters [1][6] - The report highlights the potential for profit recovery in Q4 2025 if copper prices remain high, as some inventory impairment losses may be reversed [2][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Jiangxi Copper reported a gross profit of 4.08 billion yuan, with a sequential decline of 1.1 billion yuan due to lower processing fees for copper concentrates [1][6] - The company recorded a significant increase in sales expenses in Q3 2025, amounting to 360 million yuan, compared to 20 million yuan in Q2 2025, attributed to seasonal factors [2][7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates net profits of 8.41 billion, 9.62 billion, and 10.72 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted copper price assumptions leading to higher earnings per share [3][4][13] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for the upcoming years are 16.3, 14.2, and 12.8 times [3][4][13] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the global supply of copper concentrates is tightening due to the shutdown of the Panama copper mine and the commissioning of new smelting plants [1][6] - The current processing fees for long-term contracts are at 21 USD/ton, while spot processing fees have dropped below -40 USD/ton, indicating a significant divergence in profitability based on sourcing strategies [1][6]

Core Insights - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 0.99% on November 3, with Hai Liang Co. leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Industrial Metal Sector Performance - Notable gainers included: - San Ti Chu (600595) with a closing price of 7.28, up 6.90% [1] - Ding Sheng New Material (603876) at 13.65, up 6.64% [1] - Shen Huo Co. (000933) at 26.14, up 5.70% [1] - Major decliners included: - Hai Liang Co. (002203) at 10.95, down 4.87% [2] - Peng Xin Resources (600490) at 7.81, down 4.52% [2] - Hua Yu Mining (601020) at 28.39, down 4.48% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 3.325 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 3.285 billion yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that: - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) had a net inflow of 1.23 million yuan from major funds [3] - Yun Aluminum (000807) saw a net inflow of 75.58 million yuan from major funds [3] - China Aluminum (601600) had a net inflow of 352.65 million yuan from major funds [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set to achieve a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Insights - The company reported record high performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 86.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, and a total profit of 21.149 billion yuan, up 53.95% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in gold production was significant, with a 25.98% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by the acquisition of the Ghana Akim gold mine [2]. - The company is expanding its resource reserves through acquisitions of operational gold mines both domestically and internationally, enhancing its production capacity [2]. - Despite rising costs, the selling prices of gold and copper have increased more significantly, leading to a substantial rise in revenue [3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's operating costs were 190.816 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, which is lower than the revenue growth of 10.33% [3]. - The financial expenses decreased by 34.60% year-on-year to 588 million yuan, while management expenses increased by 54.15% to 2.653 billion yuan [4]. - The company expects a long-term increase in profitability due to rising prices of copper and gold, supported by enhanced resource reserves [5]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for 2025 is 424.931 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 39.95% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 53.935 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 68.28% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.03 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.03 [6]. Resource Expansion - The company has successfully completed acquisitions of several operational gold mines, including the Ghana Akim and Kazakhstan Raygorodok gold mines, which have commenced production [2]. - The company is also progressing on key projects such as the Julong Copper Mine and the Juno Copper Mine, with the second phase of the Julong Copper Mine expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [2].