Group 1: Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of precious metals, particularly gold, supported by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [10][11][44] - Gold demand is expected to remain strong due to central bank purchases, with a total of 219.85 tons purchased in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [18][20] - Silver is projected to experience strong price momentum due to persistent supply-demand gaps and low domestic inventory levels [28][39] Group 2: Copper - The copper mining sector is expected to maintain low growth rates, with a projected supply shortage in 2026 due to ongoing mining and smelting conflicts [12][45] - Global copper production is anticipated to increase by approximately 10,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 84,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, while smelting capacity is expected to rise by 217,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 20,000 tons respectively [12][47] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, as supply tightens [2][12] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with domestic production growth rates projected at 2.2%, 1.4%, and 0.4% from 2025 to 2027 [3][13] - Demand for aluminum remains resilient, driven by investments in new energy and power grids, with a projected domestic demand growth of 2.6%, 1.0%, and 3.6% over the same period [3][13] - The report highlights the importance of high dividend stocks in the aluminum sector, recommending companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum [3][13] Group 4: Cobalt - The cobalt supply chain is being reshaped by policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a significant reduction in global supply, with projections of only 96,600 tons contributed annually from 2026 to 2027 [4][14] - Demand for cobalt is expected to grow, particularly in high-end electric vehicles and solid-state batteries, with a projected global shortage of 32,000 tons and 31,000 tons in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][14] - Companies benefiting from cobalt price elasticity, such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum, are recommended for investment [4][14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating. It is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December, with prices fluctuating in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Spot prices are stable, and the main contract has risen. Although new delivery brands are beneficial for increasing deliverable volume and warehouse receipts, considering weak demand and a large decline in production, polysilicon futures may still oscillate at a high level, and the spot is still under pressure [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly in the game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum oscillating in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - Market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend throughout the year, and a bullish view on tin prices is maintained [6]. Zinc - With the decline of TC, the supply pressure is relieved, and the short - term price has limited downward space. The export of refined zinc drives the spot to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term Shanghai zinc price trend may be stronger than that of London zinc, and the main contract should focus on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - Macro factors are temporarily stable. After the valuation repair of nickel prices, the price driving force weakens. In the medium term, the loose fundamentals restrict the upward space of prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Macro factors are temporarily stable, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is not smooth. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. Although the fundamentals have not changed much, the market is affected by news of slower - than - expected upstream resumption of production. In the short term, it may maintain a strong oscillation under the drive of capital sentiment [18]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: On December 11, the prices of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged compared with the previous day, while the basis of each variety declined [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The average prices of N - type re - feeding materials, N - type granular silicon, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm remained unchanged on December 11, while the average price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R increased by 4.24% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On December 12, the prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by 0.46% - 0.47% compared with the previous day, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in various regions also showed an upward trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: On December 12, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55% compared with the previous day, and the average price of alumina in various regions showed a downward trend [4]. - **Tin**: On December 12, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.04% compared with the previous day, and the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 66.67% [6]. - **Zinc**: On December 12, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.17% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss improved [8]. - **Copper**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper, and SMM wet - process copper increased by 1.05% - 1.22% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss worsened [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel decreased by 0.21% - 0.26% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss of futures worsened [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 12, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 12, the average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Price Differences - **Industrial Silicon**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. showed significant changes on December 11, with some increasing by more than 100% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The price differences between the main contract, current - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed on December 11, with the current - month - to - first - continuous increasing by 1166.67% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price differences between AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [4]. - **Tin**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [6]. - **Zinc**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [8]. - **Copper**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [10]. - **Nickel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [18]. Fundamental Data - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 11.17% month - on - month, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The outputs of organic silicon DMC and regenerative aluminum alloy increased, while the outputs of polysilicon and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In November, the polysilicon output decreased by 14.48% month - on - month, the import volume increased by 11.96%, and the export volume decreased by 27.99%. The silicon wafer output decreased by 10.35% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the output of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74% month - on - month, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06%, and the export volume increased by 31.49% [3]. - **Aluminum**: In November, the alumina output decreased by 4.44% month - on - month, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 3.50%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum import volume increased by 0.61%, and the export volume decreased by 15.18% [4]. - **Tin**: In October, the tin ore import volume increased by 33.49%, the SMM refined tin output increased by 53.09%, the refined tin import volume decreased by 58.55%, and the export volume decreased by 15.33% [6]. - **Zinc**: In November, the refined zinc output decreased by 3.56% month - on - month. In October, the refined zinc import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Copper**: In November, the electrolytic copper output increased by 1.05% month - on - month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume decreased by 15.61% [10]. - **Nickel**: In November, the Chinese refined nickel output decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the refined nickel import volume decreased by 65.66% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In November, the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.72%, and the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel increased by 0.36%. The stainless steel import volume increased by 3.18%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the lithium carbonate output increased by 3.35% month - on - month, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume increased by 21.86%, and the export volume increased by 63.05% [18]. Inventory Changes - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, the weekly social inventory increased by 0.54%, the daily warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 11.40%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.28% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, the silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 7.58% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08%, the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.28%, the daily inventory in Ningbo increased by 3.91%, and the daily inventory in Wuxi decreased by 28.57% [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.01%, the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.72%, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 0.15%, the alumina plant's in - house inventory increased by 1.72%, the alumina port inventory increased by 2.36%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.39% [4]. - **Tin**: The SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, the social inventory increased by 2.39%, the SHEF daily warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the LME daily inventory increased by 1.09% [6]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the LME inventory increased by 0.92% [8]. - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.58%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.42%, the COMEX inventory increased by 0.48%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased by 4.23%, the social inventory increased by 2.71%, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged, the LME inventory decreased by 0.09%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.69%, the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.08%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.20% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [18].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies have reversed the trend of low dividends, significantly increasing capital returns to shareholders, which has led to a narrowing of the risk premium in Chinese stocks despite stable corporate profit growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159118) experienced a rise of approximately 0.4% during early trading on December 12, with leading stocks including Jiangxi Copper, CRRC, and New World Development [1] - The ETF closely tracks the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index, focusing on large-cap value stocks, which aids investors in efficiently accessing Hong Kong stocks with low fees (management and custody fees only 0.2%) and T+0 trading [1] Group 2: Corporate Actions - Chinese enterprises have significantly increased the level of capital returned to shareholders, surpassing the returns from holding cash domestically [1] - This shift in corporate behavior has contributed to the positive performance of stock prices in the market [1]

日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 铜期货日报 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价上涨，隔夜美联储如期降息 25BP，市场情绪受到提振，铜价上涨，沪铜主力 最高涨至 9.3 万，但日内随着 A 股开盘后持续走弱，市场抛售情绪增加带动铜价 回落。现货涨 965 至 92665，现货升水跌 25 至 5，临近年末持货商抛售情绪增加， 叠加 12 合约即将结束，现货升水快速下行。周内社库再度累库 0.27 万吨，高铜 价抑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment momentum in the non-ferrous metals sector remains strong, with significant inflows into the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), indicating positive market sentiment towards this sector's future performance [1][8]. Fund Inflows - As of December 11, the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 140 million yuan in the last four days and 371 million yuan over the past 20 days, reflecting a robust interest from investors [1][8]. - The latest scale of the non-ferrous metal leader ETF is 835 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1][8]. Sector Analysis Gold - Goldman Sachs has indicated that there may still be upward potential for gold prices next year, predicting a target price of $4,900 by the end of 2026. A 1 basis point increase in gold's portfolio allocation could raise its price by approximately 1.4% [3][10]. Aluminum - Short-term forecasts suggest that aluminum prices may continue to show strong fluctuations. The domestic production capacity is constrained by a "ceiling" of 45 million tons, limiting new capacity additions. Demand remains resilient, leading to expectations of stable or rising prices in the aluminum sector [3][10]. Copper - Supply shortages and tariff concerns are likely to continue driving copper prices higher. The supply-demand imbalance in the copper mining and smelting sectors may ease, with expectations for smelting fees to stabilize, supporting a positive outlook for copper prices [3][10]. Lithium - The lithium battery production forecast for December shows a production of 143.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%. The overall sentiment in the lithium sector remains positive, with expectations for rising prices due to increased production capacity utilization [4][11]. Investment Strategy - Given the varying degrees of market conditions and drivers across different non-ferrous metals, a diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its associated funds (A class: 017140, C class: 017141) is recommended. This strategy allows for risk diversification while capturing the overall sector's performance [5][11].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry, often labeled as "bulky and crude," has unexpectedly entered a high-profile period since 2025, with indices outperforming even the AI-driven TMT sector, and core commodity prices like gold and copper reaching historical highs [5] - The industry is undergoing a systematic transformation, with China evolving from a follower to a leader in global resource allocation through overseas acquisitions and capacity expansion [6][7] Group 2: Changes in Industry Narrative - A new variable, processing attributes, has emerged as a third core attribute alongside financial and resource properties, increasingly influencing the pricing and competitiveness of non-ferrous metals [9] - Supply rigidity is a fundamental support for price stability, as insufficient investment in resource extraction over the past decade, coupled with rising nationalism and stricter environmental regulations, has made new capacity hard to release [10] - Geographical mismatches in resource distribution have intensified national competition for influence in the non-ferrous industry, with countries like China actively acquiring overseas mines to secure resource safety [13][14] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The new pricing logic for gold is shifting towards hedging against dollar credit risk, with gold becoming a preferred reserve asset amid rising global debt and currency devaluation [16][17] - Central banks and individual investors have increasingly turned to gold, with central banks net purchasing around 1,000 tons annually, accounting for about 23% of global demand [20] - China, as the largest gold producer and consumer, has seen its mining companies actively participate in global resource allocation, with significant acquisitions enhancing their competitive edge [21][24] Group 4: Copper Market Insights - The copper market is experiencing a tight balance between supply constraints and steady demand growth, with prices rising over 30% this year [26] - China's copper enterprises have transitioned from followers to leaders, with significant investments in overseas resources and a complete industrial chain from mining to processing [30][33] - The global copper supply is expected to face significant challenges due to aging mines and declining ore grades, while Chinese companies are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [31][33] Group 5: Aluminum Industry Landscape - Aluminum, the most consumed non-ferrous metal, maintains high prices due to its strong processing attributes and the competitive nature of the industrial system [35] - China dominates the global aluminum market with a 57% share of electrolytic aluminum production, and the industry is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand dynamic [36] - Chinese aluminum companies are expanding their competitive advantages through cost reduction strategies and integrated operations, solidifying their global leadership [38][40] Conclusion - The non-ferrous metals industry is not merely a cyclical story of price fluctuations; it reflects a complex interplay of financial, resource, and processing attributes, alongside global resource allocation dynamics, showcasing the rise of Chinese enterprises from followers to leaders in the sector [41][43]

Group 1: Gold - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% [1] - Analysts suggest that if expectations for further rate cuts increase, it could boost gold prices [1] - Technically, gold has been oscillating between $4180 and $4260, with key support at $4195 and resistance at $4250 [1] Group 2: Oil - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels, which was less than expected, leading to bearish sentiment for oil prices [2] - The EIA's short-term energy report indicates that global supply growth is outpacing demand, predicting a 2 million barrels per day increase in oil inventories next year [2] - Technically, oil faced resistance at $60.47 and is expected to test support at $57 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The recent Fed rate cut faced dissent from three members, indicating potential challenges for future cuts [3] - The dollar index has been experiencing wide fluctuations, with a recent resistance level at 100.40 and potential support at 96.60 [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has struggled to break above the resistance level of 51000, with a potential test of support at 49470 [5] Group 5: Copper - Copper prices have been consolidating at high levels, with a potential upward target of $5.38, while support is noted at $5.23 [6] Group 6: Market Overview - The Fed's decision to cut rates and purchase $40 billion in short-term debt was confirmed, with a maintained expectation of one rate cut each in the next two years [7] - The U.S. labor cost growth has reached a four-year low [7] - Tensions are rising as the U.S. detained a Venezuelan oil tanker, with Venezuela's president responding defiantly [7]

期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月09日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 铜： 市场预计美联储12月鹰派降息，风险资产日间集体下挫，沪铜短期 承压下行。近期铜金融属性开始显现，金铜比修复。美国总统特朗 普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创世使命"的国家级人 工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增长的想象空间。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share major indices declined, while the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) rose by 0.33%, indicating strong market interest with a net subscription of 51 million units [1] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has seen a total net inflow of 54.3 million yuan over the past two days, with a current fund size of 748 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on December 9-10 is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a probability of 89.4%, which is anticipated to support the price increase of nonferrous metals [1] Group 2 - During the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, tight supply and demand for physical assets are expected to create significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] - The demand for copper is projected to increase due to power investments by 2026, while storage and alternative demands are expected to drive aluminum demand [2] - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a broad range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option [2]

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and weakened overnight, with LME copper inventory increasing by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons and COMEX copper warehouse receipts rising by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons [2][8] - The U.S. ADP report indicated an average of 4,750 new jobs added per week in the private sector, ending a four-week job loss streak, signaling positive labor market trends [2][8] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in December, while future rate paths and liquidity measures are under scrutiny [2][8] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.91% to $14,750 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.18% to 116,360 yuan per ton, with LME inventory decreasing by 816 tons to 252,528 tons [3][9] - The Indonesian government is intensifying regulatory measures in the mining sector, imposing heavy fines on companies operating illegally beyond forest permits [3][9] - Nickel prices in the nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain are showing upward pressure, but price ceilings remain limited due to marginal inventory reductions [3][9] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices weakened, with AO2601 settling at 2,503 yuan per ton, down 2.15%, while SHFE aluminum also saw a decline to 21,835 yuan per ton, down 0.7% [4][11] - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal pressures with inventory levels rising, and the supply of alumina remains high, contributing to downward price pressures [4][11] - The aluminum price is following a copper-aluminum ratio correction logic, with increasing concerns about downstream high-price stocking sentiment [4][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices weakened, with the main contract settling at 8,340 yuan per ton, down 3.47%, while polysilicon prices showed strength, rising by 3.45% to 55,610 yuan per ton [5][11] - The photovoltaic supply chain is facing high inventory levels and production cuts, with price reduction sentiments not spreading upward [5][11] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to alleviate warehouse pressure, with slow growth in near-month warehouse receipts providing some support [5][11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.23% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate remaining at 92,750 yuan per ton [6][12] - Weekly lithium production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [6][12] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening, leading to a slight increase in total inventory days to 27 days [6][12]