Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock performance and financial growth, with a notable increase in share price and net profit year-on-year, indicating strong market interest and operational efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 23, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock rose by 2.06%, reaching 15.86 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.315 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.85% [1]. - The stock has increased by 147.93% year-to-date, with a 1.02% rise over the last five trading days, 23.91% over the last 20 days, and 76.22% over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on October 9 [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum, established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 48.56% from refined metal product trading, 38.31% from concentrate product trading, and smaller contributions from copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), and others [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported operating revenue of 94.773 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.671 billion CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.562 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 237,500, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 648 million shares, and various ETFs, indicating a diversified institutional interest [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper experienced a decline of 2.03% in stock price on October 23, 2023, with a current price of 17.37 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 34.803 billion CNY [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Yunnan Copper's stock price has increased by 45.36% year-to-date, but it has seen a decline of 5.29% over the last five trading days [1] - The stock has risen by 5.02% over the last 20 days and by 27.53% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a stock market leaderboard) once this year, with the most recent appearance on October 10 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yunnan Copper reported a revenue of 88.913 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.27% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.317 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.32% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2023, the number of shareholders for Yunnan Copper was 167,500, a decrease of 0.94% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 0.95% to 11,965 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 4.019 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.944 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 33.0629 million shares, a decrease of 10.1395 million shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI 500 ETF ranked as the sixth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 20.7629 million shares, an increase of 2.8995 million shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals released on October 22, 2025, covering various non - ferrous metals such as copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For copper, the macro - level risk aversion cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, the terminal consumption is weak, and the strategy is to go long on dips cautiously [4][6]. - For alumina, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the price may rebound after the short - position reduction, with a focus on the implementation of the production - reduction expectation [15][16]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro logic is the main driving factor, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [22][23]. - For casting aluminum alloy, the macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [31][32]. - For zinc, the overseas low - inventory situation supports the LME price, and the domestic price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and go short on rallies [37][40]. - For lead, the downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions and add short on rallies [44]. - For nickel, the macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range [50][51]. - For stainless steel, the price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57][58]. - For tin, the Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the price may oscillate around the integer mark [63][65]. - For industrial silicon, it is weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction [70]. - For polycrystalline silicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [75][78]. - For lithium carbonate, the inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price oscillates strongly [83][84]. Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 85,420 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, and the index position decreased by 3,950 lots to 532,700 lots. The spot price had different changes in different regions [2][3]. - **Important Information**: European leaders supported a cease - fire, China's import of anode copper decreased in September 2025, and the import of scrap copper ingots increased [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk - aversion sentiment cools down, the supply - side disturbance of copper mines increases, the production is expected to decline, and the terminal consumption is weak [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and be cautious about chasing highs; hold the inter - market positive spread and arrange the inter - period positive spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline; wait and see for options [6][7][8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 34 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 7,177 lots to 468,900 lots. The spot price decreased in different regions [9]. - **Related Information**: Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises tendered for alumina, some alumina enterprises carried out maintenance or production reduction, and China's alumina import and export data changed in September 2025 [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant, and the production - reduction scale is expected to expand in November [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounds from the low due to the supply inflection point in the short term; wait and see for spreads and options [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 21,045 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 25,548 lots to 517,200 lots. The spot price rose in some regions [19]. - **Related Information**: The Russia - US meeting was in a deadlock, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and some overseas aluminum plants had production - reduction situations [19][20][21]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro logic is the main driving factor, and overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads and options [23][24][25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 115 yuan to 20,515 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions and rose slightly in the southwest [27]. - **Related Information**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data of un - wrought aluminum alloy changed in September 2025 [28][30]. - **Trading Logic**: The macro sentiment improves, the cost support is stable, and the price is restricted by high social inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips with the aluminum price, and the medium - term strong - oscillation trend remains unchanged; wait and see for spreads and options [32][33]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.18% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 299 lots to 229,800 lots. The spot trading was weak [35]. - **Related Information**: The LME zinc market had a rare spot shortage on October 21 [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic price is under pressure, the overseas price is supported, and the export window is open [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; wait and see for spreads and options [40]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.03% to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 1,744 lots to 88,600 lots. The electrolytic lead supply was scarce [42]. - **Related Information**: Environmental protection measures affected the transportation in Hebei, and a small - scale regenerative lead smelter adjusted its production strategy [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream consumption improves marginally, but the supply may increase [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the short position and add short on rallies; wait and see for spreads and options [44]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 130 to 121,380 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 660 lots. The spot premium had different changes [46][47][49]. - **Important Information**: China's nickel - sulfur and wet - process intermediate imports increased in September 2025 [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro environment is volatile, the cost has support, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies to the upper edge of the oscillation range; wait and see for spreads; sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [51][52][53]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 45 to 12,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 10,286 lots. The spot price had a certain range [55]. - **Important Information**: Some stainless - steel enterprises in Taiwan applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price oscillates strongly but is restricted by demand [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term driven by news; buy ss2512 and sell ss2602 for spreads [58][59]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract Shanghai tin 2511 closed at 281,680 yuan/ton, up 1,050 yuan/ton or 0.37%, and the position increased by 624 lots to 65,148 lots [61]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US and China - EU trade issues were involved, and the US president's remarks on Taiwan were responded to [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade tension eases, the mine supply is tight, and the demand recovers slowly [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate around the integer mark; wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is bearish in November, and the price is under short - term pressure but has support [69]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Weak in the short term, waiting for a full correction; no suggestion for spreads and options [70][71][72]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Some domestic southwest polycrystalline - silicon bases will gradually reduce raw - material input and stop production [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance sheet will improve, and the short - term callback space is limited [75]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Buy on dips; hold the reverse spread of 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range; adjust the option strategy [78][79][80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 1,240 to 77,120 yuan/ton, the index position increased by 41,864 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 873 to 29,019 tons. The spot price increased [82]. - **Important Information**: CATL's commercial - vehicle battery and energy - storage business grew [83]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing, reflecting strong demand, and the price oscillates strongly [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, the push for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict by Europe has led to a sharp drop in hedging demand, but the fundamental support factors remain unchanged. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in the next week and December, and the medium - to - long - term monetary easing environment will continue. The global demand for gold allocation remains stable, and institutional investors are still optimistic about the medium - term outlook after the short - term sharp decline [3]. - For copper, the spot market atmosphere is average, downstream sentiment is low and demand is mainly for rigid needs. With the replenishment of domestic and imported supplies, the increase in spot circulation has led to a downward adjustment of premiums [18]. - For aluminum, macro data shows that China's core CPI growth rate expanded to 1% in September, indicating a mild recovery in domestic demand. Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, which is positive for aluminum prices. The market believes that the probability of tariff negotiation success is high. The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are stable this week, and the continuous destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventory provides some support for aluminum prices. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and has strong support at the bottom [37]. - For zinc, the fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Domestic smelting supply is stable, while overseas there are production cuts. The price spread has been widening due to inconsistent fundamentals. The domestic zinc market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - upward driving forces [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts this year at the macro level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs affects risk appetite. In the nickel ore market, Indonesia's new quota regulations may lead to a decline in 2026 quotas. The new energy sector is in the peak season, with strong demand. Nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless steel prices may decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the follow - up development of Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [75]. - For tin, the fundamentals have not changed. Yunnan's production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve the supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is still strong, with support expected around 276,000 yuan [92]. - For lithium carbonate, market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly destocked. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to continue to grow month - on - month, which will support the futures price [106]. - For the silicon industry chain, for industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. For polysilicon, there are production cuts in the southwest region, and the specific impact needs further observation [118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Analysis**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio, as well as the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term gold and silver fund holdings [4][9][12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term sharp decline but medium - term outlook remains positive due to long - term monetary easing and stable global gold allocation demand [3]. Copper - **Spot and Futures Data**: Spot copper prices in various regions have declined, with daily price drops ranging from 0.89% to 0.9%. Futures prices of Shanghai copper have slightly increased, with a daily increase of 0.02%. The premium of Shanghai copper spot has decreased by 40% [23][24]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The spot market is weak, and the increase in supply has led to a decline in premiums [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.36% to 0.79%. There are various price spreads among different contracts, such as the spread between Shanghai aluminum continuous and consecutive contracts [38][41]. - **Market Fundamentals**: Macro data is positive for aluminum prices, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventory provides support. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.09% to 0.32%. Zinc inventory has decreased, with a daily decrease of 1.6% for Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and 5.3% for LME zinc inventory [61][71]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides short - term support [60]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Price and Market Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends. Nickel spot average prices are presented. The new energy sector has strong demand, while nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices may decline slightly [76][83][75]. - **Macro Factors**: Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [75]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin futures prices have increased slightly, with daily increases ranging from 0.26% to 0.5%. Tin inventory has increased slightly, with a 1.17% increase in Shanghai tin warehouse receipts [93][101]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is weaker than demand, and short - term prices are strong [92]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate futures prices have increased, with daily increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.54%. Inventory has decreased, with a 2.92% decrease in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts [107][115]. - **Market Outlook**: Strong demand before the end of the year will support the price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Production**: Industrial silicon prices have little change, and some prices have decreased slightly. Southwest polysilicon production cuts need further observation. The price of industrial silicon may increase slightly as the dry season approaches [118]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: High inventory restricts the price increase of industrial silicon [118].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a broad decline in core indices, with only a few dividend indices showing positive performance, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards low-volatility, high-dividend assets [1] Market Performance - The overall market has seen reduced trading volume, continuing the trend of last week's volume contraction, which was characterized by widespread declines in major indices [1] - Last week, the banking and coal indices ranked among the top eight in terms of returns, contrasting sharply with previously leading sectors such as copper, nickel, and lithium battery materials, reflecting a market style shift from high-growth to stable income [1] Investment Trends - During periods of market volume contraction, there is a tendency for funds to migrate towards low-volatility and high-dividend assets, which has led to the outperformance of dividend indices [1] - The dividend low-volatility ETF (159547) tracks the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index and has the lowest fee rate among all ETFs in the market, making it suitable for long-term core allocation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, attributed to profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, has negatively impacted leading companies in the precious metals sector, particularly gold stocks [3]. Summary by Category Market Performance - On October 22, the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) fell by 1.73%, with a trading volume of nearly 300 million yuan, indicating active trading [1]. - As of October 21, the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) had a total size of 565 million yuan, the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Stock Movements - Leading gold stocks experienced significant declines, with Western Gold and Hunan Gold dropping over 5%, while Sichuan Gold and Chifeng Gold fell more than 4% [1]. - Conversely, Baotai Co. rose over 2%, and Hailiang Co. and Yun Aluminum gained more than 1%, with several other stocks like Zhongkuang Resources and China Aluminum also performing well [1]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices saw a rare drop of over 6%, marking the largest daily decline since April 2013, primarily due to profit-taking and a stronger dollar making gold more expensive for buyers [3]. - Analysts suggest that while current pressures exist, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive as long as the Federal Reserve maintains its current interest rate path [3]. Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from a long-term supply-demand imbalance, driven by increased capital expenditure and strategic resource reserves amid global manufacturing investment growth [4]. - Specific segments such as rare earths, lithium, and copper are highlighted for their growth potential due to favorable market conditions and technological advancements [3][4]. Investment Strategy - A diversified approach to investing in the non-ferrous metals sector is recommended, utilizing the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) to mitigate risks associated with individual metal investments [6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals Electric Vehicles and Energy Storage - Domestic electric vehicle penetration rate is rapidly increasing, expected to reach 53.5% by September 2025, while global penetration varies significantly, indicating growth potential outside China and Europe [1][2] - Policy support for energy storage is strengthening, with projections for new energy storage installations to reach 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving project investments of 250 billion yuan [1][2] Lithium Supply and Demand - Due to low lithium carbonate prices in the past two years, global lithium mining companies are expected to reduce capital expenditures in 2024, potentially slowing future production [1][3] - Lithium supply growth is projected to fall below 20% for the first time in 2026, while demand remains strong, leading to a significant reduction in surplus lithium in the market next year [1][3] Aluminum Market Dynamics - The electrolytic aluminum market is benefiting from rising copper prices, with aluminum prices approaching 21,000 yuan, and domestic capacity utilization rates are high [1][4] - The impact of tariffs between China and the U.S. on the aluminum sector is limited, with China exporting approximately 800,000 tons of aluminum products to the U.S. annually, accounting for about 5% of total aluminum demand [4][6] Alumina Price Impact - The decline in alumina prices has positively affected companies with low self-sufficiency rates, such as Zhongfu Industrial, which has shown excellent profit performance [1][7] Key Market Trends and Projections Lithium Market Outlook - Recent rebounds in lithium futures indicate strong downstream demand, with expectations for lithium prices to remain supported in the short term [2][3] - The anticipated increase in energy storage demand and electric vehicle penetration are primary drivers for lithium demand [2][3] Copper Price Fluctuations - Copper prices are currently volatile, influenced by macroeconomic factors, with expectations for a bullish window in the first half of 2026, potentially reaching historical highs of 12,000 to 14,000 USD [8][9] Tin Market Insights - Tin is classified as a critical mineral resource, with supply tightness driven by China's export controls and global supply constraints [2][15] - Strong demand for tin solder, particularly from the semiconductor sector, is expected to continue [15] Rare Earths and Tungsten - Recent price corrections in rare earths are attributed to market sentiment and export controls, with future price movements dependent on the stabilization of neodymium and praseodymium prices [18][19] - The tungsten market has seen price corrections followed by a rebound, with recommendations for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and others due to their growth potential [22] Investment Recommendations - High-dividend stocks such as China Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [1][7] - Companies in the lithium sector, including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, are recommended for their growth potential in solid-state batteries and energy storage [5] - Focus on companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luxshare Precision in the cobalt sector, which are expected to see significant profit growth [14] Conclusion - The non-ferrous metals sector is poised for growth driven by electric vehicle adoption, energy storage demand, and strategic supply constraints. Investment opportunities exist across various sub-sectors, particularly in lithium, aluminum, and cobalt, with a focus on companies demonstrating strong fundamentals and growth potential.

Group 1: Macro Insights - The analysis of the "slow bull" markets in the US and Japan indicates that even with a downward trend in absolute economic growth, stock markets may remain unaffected. Factors such as industrial structure upgrades, adjustments in monetary policy, and stable dividend repurchases can offset risks associated with economic and inflation declines [7][8][9]. Group 2: Zijin Mining (601899.SH) - For the first three quarters of 2025, Zijin Mining reported revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.86 billion yuan, up 55.4% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 86.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [13][14]. - The gold segment's profitability continues to enhance, with gold production for the first nine months of 2025 at 64.9 tons, a 19.7% increase year-on-year. The unit gross profit for gold increased by 64.8% to 451.7 yuan per gram [14][15]. Group 3: Juchen Technology (688123.SH) - Juchen Technology is expected to see revenues of 1.317 billion yuan, 1.783 billion yuan, and 2.391 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 450 million yuan, 632 million yuan, and 867 million yuan. The company is given a target price of 190.33 yuan based on a 67x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [19][17]. Group 4: Hikvision (002415.SZ) - Hikvision's innovative business has become a core driver for performance growth and valuation reshaping, achieving revenue of 11.766 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 13.9% year-on-year increase, accounting for 28.1% of total revenue. Growth is attributed to sectors like robotics, smart home, automotive electronics, and thermal imaging [21][22]. - The company anticipates revenues of 95.036 billion yuan, 102.284 billion yuan, and 112.142 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with net profits of 14.04 billion yuan, 15.557 billion yuan, and 17.344 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of future positioning rather than past defensive strategies, suggesting that investors should focus on opportunities for excess returns in the upcoming year [9][15]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term but are projected to reach new highs in the medium term due to credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - The rare earth sector is anticipated to maintain its strategic importance despite short-term price declines, with a widening supply-demand gap expected in the medium term [17]. - The copper market is viewed positively, with expectations of price increases in the medium term, encouraging investors to buy on dips [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold: Short-term volatility is high, but medium-term prospects are strong with expectations of new highs supported by credit and safe-haven demand [16]. - Rare Earths: Short-term price declines do not diminish the medium-term strategic position, with an anticipated widening supply-demand gap [17]. - Copper: Strong medium-term price outlook, with a recommendation to buy on dips due to expected economic recovery and increased manufacturing investment [17]. 2. Steel Industry - Profitability: Short-term profitability is under pressure, with both prices and costs declining [28]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly rebar consumption decreased to 2.2 million tons, down 8.84% week-on-week and 14.77% year-on-year [24][18]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [25]. - Prices: The overall steel price index has slightly decreased, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing a notable drop [38]. 3. New Energy Metals - Supply: Significant increase in lithium production, with August 2025 output reaching 80,040 tons, up 46.54% year-on-year [42]. - Demand: High growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, with August 2025 figures showing a 26% increase year-on-year [48]. - Prices: Lithium prices have risen, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 75,750 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.55% week-on-week increase [55].