| | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/14 | 2160 | 2290 | 2240 | 2440 | 18 | 0 | 379 | 2750 | 2800 | 112 | -50 | | 2026/01/15 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | -5 | 10 | 383 | 2750 | 2800 | 90 | -70 | | 2026/01/16 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | 9 | 10 | 390 | 2750 | 2800 | 100 | -70 | | 2026/01/19 | 2180 | 2290 | 226 ...

增长4.5%！2025年山东进出口总值3.53万亿元 民营企业进出口值占比76.3% 机电产品出口首次突破万亿大关 记者从1月20日上午省政府新闻办举行的新闻发布会上获悉，2025年我省外贸进出口总值实现3.53 万亿元，同比增长4.5%，规模再创历史新高，占全国进出口总值的7.8%，对全国外贸增长的贡献达到 9.1%。其中，出口2.16万亿元，增长4%；进口1.37万亿元，增长5.1%。 从月度走势看，2025年各月进出口值总体稳定，10个月实现同比增长，其中12月份进出口值达到 3407.8亿元，同比增长3.1%，环比增长13.6%，创单月进出口历史新高。 从贸易方式看，2025年，山东一般贸易进出口2.29万亿元，增长4.4%，占全省进出口总值的 64.8%；保税物流进出口5993.2亿元，增长5.6%；加工贸易进出口5461.6亿元，增长5.3%。外贸新业态 发展也有所突破，跨境电商B2B直接出口值达到1133.4亿元，增长7.6%；跨境电商海外仓出口55.9亿 元，大幅增长10.1倍。 从市场主体看，2025年，全省有进出口实绩企业8.05万家，较上年增加9.7%，其中民营企业7.48万 家。民营企 ...

通过全省上下一系列有力有效举措，"甘味"品牌连续五年蝉联中国区域农业产业品牌影响力指数百强榜 榜首，成为农民增收致富的"金钥匙"，已带动百万农户共享品牌发展红利。 责任编辑：马莉 每日甘肃网兰州讯（新甘肃·甘肃经济日报记者祁玉洁）近日，记者从甘肃"甘味拓市场促消费"系列活 动中获悉，作为省级区域公用品牌的"甘味"农产品，2025年销售额突破400亿元大关，达412亿元，同比 增长33.3%。"厚道甘肃·地道甘味"品牌形象深入人心，联农带动振兴产业的作用愈加凸显。 近年来，甘肃在全国率先构建"1+55+750"三级品牌矩阵，以省级"甘味"品牌为统领，55个区域公用品牌 和750个企业商标为支撑，形成制度完善、层级清晰的品牌体系。依托陇原大地自然资源禀赋，打造"牛 羊菜果薯药粮种"八大产业集群，全省绿色、有机、名特优新和地理标志农产品总数达2655个。 秉持"拓市场、促消费"主线，"甘味"已构建起"线上线下融合、省内省外联动、国内国际协同"营销网 络。线下在全国开设100家授权门店，在北京、广州等大型批发市场设立运营中心；线上搭建30个销售 平台，开设抖音等官方旗舰店，培育"甘味"直播大赛等带货新业态。同时积极推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global commodity markets, highlighting the increasing uncertainty in pricing due to climate changes and geopolitical factors. It emphasizes the historical correlation between extreme weather events and commodity price fluctuations, indicating that the current weak La Niña may still disrupt supply chains and affect prices across various sectors [3][4][10]. Weather Outlook - A weak La Niña has been established, expected to transition to neutral conditions by spring 2026. The current La Niña is not anticipated to cause widespread cold winters due to global warming trends, but it may still influence global circulation patterns and lead to unusual precipitation anomalies [5][11][16]. - The probability of transitioning to El Niño conditions by the third quarter of 2026 has risen to over 60%, which could increase the frequency of extreme weather events [5][12][22]. Commodity Impact - Weather disturbances are expected to affect different commodity sectors in varied ways, with energy, metals, and agricultural products each responding differently to temperature and precipitation changes [6][35]. Energy Sector - In North America, natural gas prices are expected to rise due to increased heating demand, with NYMEX prices projected to range between $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the off-season [6][36][37]. - European natural gas prices are anticipated to decrease due to low inventory levels despite a warm winter, with TTF prices expected to drop to $9-10 per MMBtu [6][40][42]. Metals Sector - Heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, particularly in Indonesia and South America, leading to increased costs and production interruptions [7][49][50]. - The impact of La Niña on aluminum prices may arise from increased electricity costs due to reduced hydropower generation in affected regions [7][53]. Agricultural Sector - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to have a limited impact on South American soybean production, with Brazil's soybean yield projected to reach 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [8][66][67]. - Palm oil production in Southeast Asia is also expected to remain stable, with short-term bullish expectations despite some localized weather disturbances [8][72].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Short-term recovery in pig prices is expected, while the breeding capacity remains high [3] - The industry is undergoing a significant policy transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation [6][17] - The high-quality development of the industry is essential, with cost-leading and farmer-inclusive companies likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector saw a decline of 4.9%, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction [5][16] - In 2025, the national pig output reached 71.973 million heads, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, while the breeding sow inventory decreased by 2.9% [5][16] - As of January 18, 2026, pig prices rose to 13.25 CNY/kg, indicating a recovery in the industry [5][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.65 CNY/kg, down 3.18% week-on-week [7][18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to reduced imports of breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [7][18] - The industry is expected to see a continued advantage for leading companies due to integrated operations and contract farming [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have shown recovery, with significant year-on-year increases for certain species [19][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [20] 4. Pet Industry - The competitive landscape in the pet food sector is becoming more concentrated, with leading brands outperforming mid-tier brands [10][21] - Despite concerns over Q4 2025 performance, the growth outlook for the pet industry remains strong, with domestic sales expected to continue growing [10][21] - Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co., which is positioned for growth in both domestic and international markets [11][21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices fell by 2.1%, while corn prices increased by 0.8% due to declining inventories [26] - The egg market is showing strength, with prices rising by 1.4% [26] - The agricultural sector is viewed as having significant investment value due to its historical low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes [26]

Core Viewpoint - The local government is actively monitoring and ensuring the supply and price stability of essential goods in response to adverse weather conditions, specifically low-temperature rain and snow [1][3]. Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - Due to the rain and snow weather, there has been a decrease in foot traffic in supermarkets and markets, but the supply of essential goods remains sufficient and prices are generally stable [3]. - Major wholesale markets have organized sufficient supplies in advance, with daily transaction volumes for vegetables exceeding 14 million kilograms on January 20, reflecting a 12.07% increase compared to the previous week [3]. Group 2: Price Monitoring - Monitoring data indicates that the retail prices of essential goods are mostly stable, with the average prices of ten categories of essential goods showing five increases, no decreases, and five remaining stable as of January 20 [4]. - Specific price changes include a 0.37% increase in meat, 0.74% in eggs, 1.18% in aquatic products, 0.55% in vegetables, and 0.06% in fruits, while prices for staple grains, boxed milk (250ml), salt, frozen dumplings, and cooking oil remained unchanged [4].

中国发展网讯1月19日青岛市价格认证和监测中心价格监测科市场巡查情况：超市、农贸市场粮油及其 他重要民生商品储备充足，销售情况平稳，未出现断档脱销、价格异常波动情况，总体价格运行在合理 区间。 粮食价格平稳大米(一级长粒)为3.21元(平均零售价格，每500克，下同)、面粉(特一粉)为2.37元、花生油 (5升桶装)为133.20元，与昨日持平； 蔬菜价格上涨蔬菜批发市场成交量较昨日上涨12.30%。各农贸市场、超市蔬菜品种丰富、供应稳定， 整体价格上涨，批发价格为2.62元，较昨日价格上涨2.75%； 海产品品种价格平稳鲅鱼为11元、牡蛎为7.5元、带鱼平均价格为15元、海明虾为34元，虾皮为35元、 干海带为19.67元，均与昨日持平，个别产品销量略有波动，市场整体较为平稳。(青岛市价格认证和监 测中心宋佳陈超) 肉类价格小幅波动五花肉为14.25元，较昨日下跌0.14%；精瘦肉14.71元，较昨日上涨0.55%；牛肉为 37.70元、羊肉为41.40元，与昨日持平； 鸡蛋价格平稳鸡蛋平均价格为3.92元，与昨日持平； ...

Core Insights - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" spring campaign has significantly boosted market consumption potential, with notable increases in both recognition and sales of Guangdong products domestically and internationally [2][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The first event of the spring campaign in Foshan on January 15 led to a sales surge, with 29 out of 32 participating live-streaming companies reporting increased sales compared to the previous day, and overall sales up by 110% [2]. - Specific product sales saw remarkable growth, with the sales of a tea kettle reaching five times the usual volume, and a multi-functional electric cooker increasing by 254% [2]. - The sales of a boiled egg cooker reached 1,300 units in one day, marking a 197% increase from the previous day [2]. Group 2: Promotional Strategies - The campaign employs a "government platform, platform support, enterprise participation" model, with various departments collaborating to create a comprehensive promotional system [3]. - The provincial industrial and information technology department initiated the campaign by organizing a home appliance promotion event, collaborating with major e-commerce platforms to establish a dedicated promotional zone [3]. - The provincial commerce department is focusing on integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, promoting a "global, national, and southern Guangdong" marketing system [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The campaign is expected to generate over 200 billion yuan in sales from the "old for new" program throughout the year, significantly enhancing agricultural product sales and injecting vitality into the Spring Festival consumption market [4]. - Many Guangdong enterprises have expanded their sales channels and enhanced brand influence through participation in the campaign, with leading companies solidifying their market positions [4]. - The brand image of "Guangdong Goods" is evolving from "Made in Guangdong" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in Guangdong," with cultural connotations and quality values gaining widespread market recognition [4]. Group 4: Future Initiatives - The provincial industrial and information technology department plans to continue the momentum with 12 online promotional events leading up to the Spring Festival, focusing on various product categories [5]. - The provincial commerce department aims to implement three major actions to ensure the campaign's effectiveness, including a large-scale exhibition to support 1,500 enterprises [5]. - The provincial agricultural and rural affairs department will launch a series of promotional activities throughout the year, focusing on seasonal products and enhancing the storytelling of Guangdong agricultural brands [5]. Group 5: Cultural Integration - The provincial culture and tourism department is organizing events to promote the integration of culture and tourism with Guangdong goods, enhancing their cultural appeal and market competitiveness [6]. - The campaign is driving Guangdong's quality products into broader markets, from home appliances to agricultural products and cultural creations [6].

软商品日报 2026/01/20 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 主流收购价格稳定，产区行情也暂无调整。基层随行出货为主，低价整体售粮意 | | | | 周一，玉米在周边商品下跌的利空因素拖累下，玉米期价承压下行。当日，玉米 3、5 月合约持仓增加，期价震荡调整。东北玉米价格目前基本维持稳定，港口 | | | | 向仍显一般。华北地区玉米价格整体偏强运行。周末华北地区普遍有雨雪天气， | | | 玉米 | 影响道路运输，深加工企业门前到货量维持低位，企业提价促收，但受天气影响， | 震荡偏弱 | | | 上量效果有限。基层贸易商建库意愿尚可，在深加工企业提价的影响下，基层玉 | | | | 米收购价格有微幅上涨。技术上，玉米市场的当日表现主要受到周边商品及情绪 | | | | 的影响，玉米期价震荡偏弱，产区潮粮收购价格上涨，5 月合约期价下行，基差 | | | | 走强。 | | | | 周一，CBOT 大豆金融市场休市，今日恢复交易。国内蛋白粕偏弱运行，菜粕跌 | | | | 幅超过 2%。中加关系向好发展，加菜籽进口或将重新打开， ...