丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 ——5 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月，社会消费品零售总额同比增速回升至 6.4%，工业增加值、固定资产投资总额同比增速较 上月回落，从生产法 GDP 估算来看，二季度 GDP 同比增速或维持在 5%以上。但在强劲的量 增之外， PPI 和房价等指标有转弱迹象，价格端的压力正在逐渐显现。在需求端，出口和生产 强度偏弱、消费高增长内含透支风险、基建同比增速持续走弱，均体现出增长转弱初现端倪。 总的来看，当前经济缺乏自主转向上行周期的动力，最终增长仍需政策承托，政策和增长的互 动节奏将决定市场的风险偏好。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] ——5 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 [Table_Title] 如果 Q2 GDP 增长超过 5% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如果 Q2 GDP2] 增长超过 5% 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the China Small and Medium Enterprises Association indicates a recovery in the development index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), reflecting the positive impact of government policies aimed at supporting these businesses [1][2]. Group 1: SME Development Index - In May, the SME Development Index (SMEDI) rose to 89.5, an increase of 0.3 points from April, ending a two-month decline and indicating a clear recovery trend [1]. - All sub-indices, including macroeconomic sentiment, comprehensive operation, market, funding, labor, input, and efficiency indices, showed improvement compared to April, while the cost index remained stable [1]. - Various industries, including manufacturing, transportation, real estate, wholesale and retail, information transmission, software, and accommodation and catering, experienced rising indices, indicating overall stability and improvement in industry operations [1]. Group 2: Government Support Initiatives - A collaborative initiative involving 17 government departments has launched the "Together Benefit Enterprises" action plan for SMEs, introducing 73 measures to enhance policy support, environmental improvement, innovation, talent development, and legal protection [2]. - The "Hundred Events, Ten Thousand Enterprises" initiative aims to facilitate market expansion for SMEs through various activities [2]. - Financial institutions have reportedly provided over 18 trillion yuan in new credit to SMEs as part of a coordinated financing support mechanism [2]. Group 3: Challenges Facing SMEs - Despite the positive trends, SMEs still face significant challenges, including cautious lending practices from financial institutions due to their small scale, lack of management standards, and insufficient collateral [3]. - Market competition remains tough, particularly for private enterprises that often deal with delayed payments and discrimination [3]. - SMEs struggle with limited funding and talent, leading to inadequate investment in technology and innovation, which hampers their competitiveness [3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Effective policy implementation is crucial, with fiscal and tax incentives tailored to different regions and industries to alleviate the burden on SMEs [4]. - Monetary policy should encourage financial institutions to increase credit availability and reduce financing costs for SMEs [4]. - A fair market environment is essential, requiring the elimination of discriminatory regulations and ensuring timely payments from larger enterprises and government entities to SMEs [4].

Economic Performance Overview - In May, the national economy showed resilience and stability, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic goals due to more proactive macro policies [1] - Key indicators in May demonstrated month-on-month increases, with industrial added value growing by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [1] - The service sector also accelerated, with the service production index increasing by 6.2% year-on-year and the business activity index at 50.2, indicating expansion [1] Consumer Spending Insights - Retail sales in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, marking a new high for 2024 [1] - The growth in consumption was driven by favorable policies and promotional activities, including the "6.18" online shopping festival and holiday effects from the "May Day" and "Duanwu" festivals [1] - Domestic tourism during the "May Day" holiday saw a 6.4% increase in visitor numbers, while restaurant revenue grew by 5.9% year-on-year [1] Export and Trade Performance - In May, China's total goods import and export amounted to 38,098 billion yuan, with exports at 22,767 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [2] - Despite the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., overall export growth remained positive, with a 7.2% increase from January to May [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7%, lower than the 4.0% growth observed in the first four months [2] - Investment in the primary industry rose by 8.4%, while the secondary industry saw an increase of 11.4%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 0.4% [2] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining by 0.7% month-on-month and new housing prices also decreasing [3] - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area further declined year-on-year in May, indicating a need for policy intervention to stabilize the market [3] Policy Recommendations - There is a necessity for targeted macro policies to enhance investment momentum and stimulate private investment, particularly in the real estate sector [3] - The government is encouraged to innovate service offerings to boost consumption, especially in tourism, dining, retail, and transportation as summer approaches [3]

Economic Growth - In May, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in May was 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] Consumption and Investment Trends - The monthly GDP growth rate for May was approximately 5.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April, aligning with the annual economic growth target[2] - Domestic consumption growth significantly increased in May, offsetting the decline in investment and export growth, indicating a shift in economic momentum towards consumption[2] - The government’s focus on boosting consumption is expected to enhance its role in economic growth in the second half of 2025[3] Employment and Unemployment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in employment conditions[1][17] - The unemployment rate in major cities also showed a similar trend, reflecting seasonal adjustments and improvements in the job market[17] Export and Import Performance - The total import and export value in May was 38,098 billion yuan, with exports at 22,767 billion yuan, growing by 6.3%, while imports decreased by 2.1%[1] - The decline in both exports and imports suggests a cooling off from previous "export rush" activities[47] Inflation and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May remained stable year-on-year at -0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.6%, indicating a mild upward trend in core prices[51] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the drop in production material prices being a significant factor[63]

A股系列指数调样，今日生效！ 根据此前消息，6月16日为A股系列指数定期例行调整的生效日。这次调样的指数包括上证50、上证180、上证 380、科创50等沪市指数，深证成指、创业板指、深证100等深市指数以及沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证 A50、中证A100、中证A500等跨市场指数。 6月16日，上证580指数也将正式发布，今日起实时行情将发布。 6大跨市场指数合计换187只样本 此次调样，沪深300指数更换7只样本，软通动力、中航成飞等调入指数；中证500指数更换50只样本，恒玄科 技、百济神州等调入指数；中证1000指数更换100只样本，万辰集团、思瑞浦等调入指数；中证A50指数更换4 只样本，北方稀土、东鹏饮料等调入指数；中证A100指数更换5只样本，中国重工、沪电股份等调入指数；中 证A500指数更换21只样本，润泽科技、恒玄科技等调入指数。可见，6大跨市场指数合计更换187只样本。 本次样本调整后，主要规模指数样本契合资本市场结构变化和产业转型升级趋势，信息技术、通信服务、工业 等行业样本数量有所上升，对市场代表性进一步增强；中证A系列指数样本行业分布均衡，纳入更多新兴领域 龙头公司 ...

A股系列指数调样，今日生效！ 根据此前消息，6月16日为A股系列指数定期例行调整的生效日。这次调样的指数包括上证50、上证 180、上证380、科创50等沪市指数，深证成指、创业板指、深证100等深市指数以及沪深300、中证 500、中证1000、中证A50、中证A100、中证A500等跨市场指数。 6月16日，上证580指数也将正式发布，今日起实时行情将发布。 6大跨市场指数合计换187只样本 此次调样，沪深300指数更换7只样本，软通动力、中航成飞等调入指数；中证500指数更换50只样本， 恒玄科技、百济神州等调入指数；中证1000指数更换100只样本，万辰集团、思瑞浦等调入指数；中证 A50指数更换4只样本，北方稀土、东鹏饮料等调入指数；中证A100指数更换5只样本，中国重工、沪电 股份等调入指数；中证A500指数更换21只样本，润泽科技、恒玄科技等调入指数。可见，6大跨市场指 数合计更换187只样本。 | 002368 | 太极股份 | 001696 | 宗申动力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002373 | 千方科技 | 002007 | 华兰生物 | | 00238 ...

A股系列指数调样，今日生效！ 根据此前消息，6月16日为A股系列指数定期例行调整的生效日。这次调样的指数包括上证50、上证 180、上证380、科创50等沪市指数，深证成指、创业板指、深证100等深市指数以及沪深300、中证 500、中证1000、中证A50、中证A100、中证A500等跨市场指数。 6月16日，上证580指数也将正式发布，今日起实时行情将发布。 | 002368 | 太极股份 | 001696 | 宗申动力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002373 | 千方科技 | 002007 | 华兰生物 | | 002384 | 东山精密 | 002130 | 沃尔核材 | | 002407 | 多氟多 | 002312 | 川发龙蟒 | | 002408 | 齐翔腾达 | 002461 | 珠江啤酒 | | 002487 | 大金重工 | 002773 | 康弘药业 | | 002531 | 天顺风能 | 002837 | 英维克 | | 002557 | 治治食品 | 002851 | 麦格米特 | | 002625 | 光启技术 | 300115 | 长盈精密 | ...

2025.06. 16 6大跨市场指数合计换187只样本 此次调样，沪深300指数更换7只样本，软通动力、中航成飞等调入指数；中证500指数更换50只样 本，恒玄科技、百济神州等调入指数；中证1000指数更换100只样本，万辰集团、思瑞浦等调入指 数；中证A50指数更换4只样本，北方稀土、东鹏饮料等调入指数；中证A100指数更换5只样本，中 国重工、沪电股份等调入指数；中证A500指数更换21只样本，润泽科技、恒玄科技等调入指数。可 见，6大跨市场指数合计更换187只样本。 | 调出名单 | | 调入名单 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 = = = = = | ST It h the | ST 32 11 77 | ** 11 4 16 | 本文字数：1450，阅读时长大约2分钟 A股系列指数调样，今日生效！ 根据此前消息，6月16日为A股系列指数定期例行调整的生效日。这次调样的指数包括上证50、上证 180、上证380、科创50等沪市指数，深证成指、创业板指、深证100等深市指数以及沪深300、中证 500、中证1000、中证A50、中证A100、中证A500等跨市场指数 ...

3条深市指数此次调样合计更换31只样本。其中，深证成指样本股调整20只样本，创业板指调整8只，深 证100指数调整3只。据悉，深证成指本次调样后制造业样本公司权重占73%；创业板指中，战略性新兴 产业权重占92%；深证100指数战略性新兴产业权重占比提升至76%，先进制造、数字经济、绿色低碳 三大重点领域权重占73%。 此次样本调整后，主要规模指数样本契合资本市场结构变化和产业转型升级趋势，信息技术、通信服 务、工业等行业样本数量有所上升，对市场代表性进一步增强；中证A系列指数样本行业分布均衡，纳 入更多新兴领域龙头公司，对细分行业覆盖度进一步提升。 4条沪市指数合计更换61只样本。其中，上证50指数更换4只样本，上证180指数更换18只样本，上证380 指数更换38只样本，科创50指数更换1只样本。 调样后，沪市指数样本质量进一步提升，将更好地发挥市场表征、投资引领的作用。比如，上证50指 数、上证180指数2024年营收增速分别提升0.6个百分点、0.2个百分点，归母净利润增速分别提升1.4个 百分点、0.1个百分点。同时，信息技术等"新经济"行业权重有所提升，体现沪市上市公司结构转型升 级不断加速的趋势 ...

A股系列指数调样，明日生效！ 根据此前消息，6月16日为A股系列指数定期例行调整的生效日。这次调样的指数包括上证50、上证180、上证380、科创50等沪市指数，深证成指、创业板指、深证 100等深市指数以及沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证A50、中证A100、中证A500等跨市场指数。 6月16日，上证580指数也将正式发布，明日起实时行情将发布。 | 14 | | | --- | --- | | | 10 | 6大跨市场指数合计换187只样本 此次调样，沪深300指数更换7只样本，软通动力、中航成飞等调入指数；中证500指数更换50只样本，恒玄科技、百济神州等调入指数；中证1000指数更换100只样 本，万辰集团、思瑞浦等调入指数；中证A50指数更换4只样本，北方稀土、东鹏饮料等调入指数；中证A100指数更换5只样本，中国重工、沪电股份等调入指数； 中证A500指数更换21只样本，润泽科技、恒玄科技等调入指数。可见，6大跨市场指数合计更换187只样本。 | 调出名单 | | | 调入名单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 证券代码 | 证券名 ...