Core Viewpoint - The agricultural and rural economy in China is showing a positive development trend in the first half of the year, providing solid support for the stable operation of the national economy [1] Group 1: Grain Production - Summer grain production reached 2994.8 billion jin, marking the second-highest yield in history, with early rice harvest at about 60% and autumn grain area expected to slightly increase [2][3] - The autumn grain production, which accounts for 75% of the annual grain output, is crucial for achieving the target of approximately 1.4 trillion jin for the year [3] Group 2: Agricultural Supply and Quality - The supply of "vegetable basket" products, including meat, eggs, milk, fruits, and vegetables, is sufficient, with a quality safety monitoring pass rate of 97.9% [4] - Measures are being taken to ensure the supply of these products despite potential adverse weather conditions this summer [4] Group 3: Agricultural Technology and Equipment - Continuous improvement in agricultural technology and equipment is essential for stabilizing grain production and supply [5] - The mechanization rate for major crops exceeds 75%, with wheat, corn, and rice achieving rates of over 97%, 91%, and 88% respectively [7] Group 4: Poverty Alleviation and Employment - The scale of employment for laborers from poverty alleviation efforts reached 32.83 million, with over 6.8 million monitoring subjects stabilized to eliminate the risk of returning to poverty [8] - The average disposable income for rural residents was 11,936 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 6.2% after accounting for price factors [9] Group 5: Rural Revitalization - The rural water supply coverage reached 94%, with over 1.6 million rural nursing homes built, indicating progress in rural infrastructure and public services [10] - The government is focusing on enhancing the quality of rural education and elderly care services while addressing issues like high wedding costs [10][11]

Group 1 - The Chain Expo showcased over 110 renowned companies in advanced manufacturing, including China CRRC, China Aluminum Group, Siemens, Honeywell, Corning, and Sumitomo Electric, highlighting the latest practices in rail transportation, aerospace, low-altitude economy, and industrial automation [1] - The theme event "Leading New Quality Productivity Development with Technological Innovation" emphasized that modern manufacturing is essential for a better life, and international cooperation is crucial for accelerating advanced manufacturing development [1] - Airbus's COO in China highlighted the importance of a global supply chain in the aviation industry, showcasing the relationship between Chinese manufacturing and the A320 aircraft, with components produced in China [1] Group 2 - Intelligent manufacturing is becoming the main focus for upgrading the manufacturing industry, with Siemens developing 18 digital and intelligent products, 16 of which were completed in just 9 months in China [2] - Honeywell is empowering small and medium-sized enterprises for digital transformation, emphasizing the unique demands of the Chinese market and collaborating with local associations, universities, suppliers, and customers [2] - China Aluminum Group is embracing digitalization by establishing the first "dark factory" in the non-ferrous metal industry, aiming for automation to improve efficiency and safety while reducing costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated widespread price increases due to new tariffs have largely not materialized, surprising economists, but the reality is that the transmission of tariffs to inflation is gaining momentum [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Tariff Impact - In June, prices for frequently imported goods such as furniture, sports equipment, and appliances rose at the fastest pace in years, indicating that the cost transmission from tariffs is having a tangible impact on specific product categories [1] - The overall inflation data has been suppressed by declines in automobile prices and certain service categories, providing arguments for tariff proponents who claim that tariffs have not affected inflation [1][4] - Economists predict that inflation driven by tariffs will continue to strengthen in the coming months as companies face increasing pressure to raise prices [1][7] Group 2: Corporate Strategies and Inventory Management - Many companies have delayed the full impact of tariffs on consumer prices by absorbing increased costs rather than passing them on, and some have built inventory buffers before tariffs took effect [2][3] - Fastenal reported that despite attempts to diversify supply chains and build inventory, they have had to raise prices multiple times recently and may need to do so again in the future [4] Group 3: Global Price Dynamics - Foreign suppliers have partially offset the impact of tariffs by lowering export prices to the U.S. to maintain competitiveness, with global factory prices remaining subdued [5] - Japan's export prices have contracted for three consecutive months, and Chinese export prices for various goods have also shown declines [5][6] Group 4: Future Inflation Expectations - Economists warn that the current calm in inflation is temporary, and as companies deplete their pre-stocked inventory, they will be less willing to sacrifice profits [7] - If tariffs are fully transmitted, it is estimated that the recent tariffs could raise the preferred inflation indicator by approximately 0.4 percentage points [7]

Group 1 - Suzhou Innovation Investment Group reported significant progress in the first half of the year, with 74 new direct investment projects and an investment amount of 1.56 billion yuan [1] - The group has also established 262 new cooperative fund investment projects, with a total cooperative fund scale of 29.56 billion yuan, exceeding 70% completion for key targets [1] - The majority of new direct investment projects (82.4%) are focused on Suzhou, particularly in the fields of new generation information technology, high-end equipment, and biomedicine [1][2] Group 2 - The investment projects in Suzhou Industrial Park are the most numerous, totaling 25, and are concentrated in advantageous industry clusters such as biomedicine and new materials [2] - Suzhou High-tech Zone has secured 13 major projects, including the representative company Star Key Photonics, showcasing strong collaboration between industry leaders and capital support [2] - The direct investment projects are crucial for building a comprehensive innovation capital network in Suzhou, with full investment coverage across 10 industrial innovation clusters and over 60% coverage of 30 industrial chains [2] Group 3 - Suzhou Innovation Investment Group has organized nearly 50 investment and financing events in the first half of the year, extending outreach to major cities like Shanghai and Beijing to innovate investment models [3] - The second batch of Suzhou strategic new funds has been established, focusing on key sectors such as high-end equipment, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence, with investment progress leading in the province [3] - The group is currently advancing 152 direct investment and sub-fund projects, aiming to continuously inject new vitality into Suzhou's economy [3]

来源：金融界 经营范围含新兴能源技术研发；新能源原动设备销售；资源再生利用技术研发；技术服务、技术开发、 技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；煤制活性炭及其他煤炭加工；煤炭洗选；煤炭及制品销 售；光伏设备及元器件销售；风力发电技术服务；光伏设备及元器件制造；石油制品制造（不含危险化 学品）；有色金属合金销售；建筑材料销售；国内货物运输代理；铁路运输设备销售；铁路运输辅助活 动；环保咨询服务；选矿；矿物洗选加工；金属矿石销售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依 法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：公共铁路运输；非煤矿山矿产资源开采；金属与非金属矿产资源地质 勘探。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文 件或许可证件为准）。 企业名称厦门垦晟新能源科技有限公司法定代表人李阿智注册资本1000万人民币国标行业制造业>石 油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业>煤炭加工地址厦门火炬高新区软件园一期曾厝垵北路3号科汇楼402室- A932企业类型有限责任公司（自然人投资或控股的法人独资）营业期限2025-7-17至无固定期限登记机 关 天眼查App显示，近日，厦门垦晟新能源科技有限公司 ...

There is a lot of noise in the stock market, distracting investors from what really matters: the fundamentals. There is no use in trying to follow the sentiment and optimism when the S&P 500 index is trading near its all-time high levels, since this is typically where underlying drivers become more sensitive and vital, making it harder for portfolios to perform properly. With this in mind, a potential bullish cycle is approaching in a couple of areas of the United States economy. These areas, such as the in ...

Core Viewpoint - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) serves as a significant platform for observing global industrial collaboration and supply chain resilience amidst deep restructuring of global supply chains, attracting 651 enterprises and institutions from 75 countries and regions, with foreign exhibitors accounting for 35%, a historical high [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Resilience - The Chain Expo features six themed areas including advanced manufacturing, clean energy, smart automotive, digital technology, healthy living, green agriculture, and a service area, along with an innovation chain zone focusing on cutting-edge technology applications and industrial collaboration [2] - The advanced manufacturing area showcases the latest technologies in smart manufacturing, satellite communication, industrial robotics, and high-end CNC machine tools, drawing significant attention from visitors [2] - Companies like Goldwind Group are establishing comprehensive industrial chain layouts, integrating various sectors such as finance and logistics, and positioning themselves as connectors in the global market [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Domestic innovative enterprises are rapidly emerging, leveraging "hard technology" to enhance the resilience of advanced manufacturing supply chains, with products like humanoid robots and advanced robotic hands showcased at the expo [3] - Beijing YunYao Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. is deploying a satellite constellation project to create a leading global meteorological detection network, currently operating 46 satellites, filling a gap in minute-level meteorological monitoring [3] - National-level specialized "little giant" enterprises are exhibiting their achievements in artificial intelligence, precision manufacturing, and life sciences, highlighting the advancements made by domestic companies [3] Group 3: Globalization Strategies - Listed companies are accelerating their globalization strategies, transitioning from merely "going out" to deeply "integrating in" the global supply chain [5] - China CITIC Group showcased its latest achievements in supply chain services across various sectors, establishing a global cooperation network covering over 160 countries and regions [6] - Companies like Lanjian Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. are enhancing their smart equipment capabilities and expanding into overseas markets, demonstrating the ongoing evolution of supply chain enterprises [6] Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem - The current global supply chain is shifting from an efficiency-first approach to a balance of safety and efficiency, with leading enterprises innovating to reshape the global supply chain landscape [7] - The "leading goose and accompanying geese" ecological model is emerging in advanced manufacturing clusters, promoting collaborative innovation and injecting new vitality into global supply chains [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that convertible bonds with positive performance in Q2 2025 will be concentrated in high-end manufacturing sectors such as communication, electronics, military, automotive parts, transportation equipment, industrial control equipment, energy equipment, and electric power equipment, as well as in non-ferrous and basic chemical industries benefiting from price increases [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance Insights - The profit growth in the non-ferrous metal mining industry is expected to reach 41.7% year-on-year, driven by rising prices and increased production and sales of metals like gold, copper, zinc, and silver [2]. - The railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors are projected to see a profit increase of 56% year-on-year, benefiting from global shipping recovery and significant orders for LNG carriers and container ships [2]. - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors, along with electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing, are expected to maintain double-digit profit growth due to high demand for AI hardware, smart terminals, and industrial control equipment [2]. - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry is anticipated to experience a profit growth rate of 38.2%, primarily due to the demand for high-value-added products like prepared dishes and health foods [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Among the companies that have disclosed their H1 2025 performance forecasts, 272 companies are expected to achieve a non-net profit growth of over 30% in Q2 2025, mainly in the basic chemicals, electric power equipment and new energy, machinery, electronics, and automotive sectors [3]. - In the basic chemicals sector, companies are expected to benefit from price increases in phosphates, pesticides, and refrigerants [3]. - The electric power equipment and new energy sector's high-performing companies are expected to benefit from increased overseas photovoltaic storage orders, domestic ultra-high voltage and smart grid construction, and rising domestic orders for new energy vehicles and military products [3]. - The machinery sector's growth is driven by high demand for industrial mother machines, semiconductor equipment, energy equipment, shipbuilding, and rail transit equipment [3]. - The electronics sector's growth is attributed to increased investment in AI computing power, accelerated domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, and growth in consumer electronics and smart terminal shipments [3]. - The automotive sector is expected to see high growth due to increased sales of domestic new energy vehicles and accelerated exports of commercial vehicles and automotive parts [3]. Group 3: Performance Forecast Adjustments - A list of 13 convertible bond targets has been identified, which have seen their average net profit forecasts raised by over 5% in the past three months, with more than three forecasting institutions involved, indicating potential marginal improvements in performance [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 381,048 lots, down 43 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, down 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,215 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon spread is - 10 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 455 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, up 7,624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - There are rumors that the restart plan of large factories has been cancelled. The operation of small and medium - sized enterprises in the northwest is stable, and in the southwest region, state - owned enterprises, self - supplied power enterprises, and organic silicon supply - guaranteeing enterprises are mainly operating. The US PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024. The US economy is slowing down in the short - term, and it is expected that China may gradually follow with interest rate cuts. Short - term observation of Fed policies is needed [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in Yili, Northwest China, remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the southwest region has decreased. Enterprises in Baoshan are actively restarting production, but the restart scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Factories in Sichuan are mainly focusing on ensuring supply and relying on self - supplied power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon sector, the spot price has increased, production profits have recovered, and enterprises are increasing production, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices are flat, and they are in a passive de - stocking phase, with little impetus for industrial silicon demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is still slowing down [2].

Group 1 - The Color Metal Leader ETF (159876) experienced a price increase of 0.66% after three consecutive days of decline, with a net subscription of 600,000 units, totaling 2.53 million yuan in the last two days [1] - Since the low point on April 8, the ETF has risen by 20.84%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (13.57%) and the CSI 300 Index (12.40%) [1] - Lithium stocks led the gains, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium both rising over 3%, and Shengxin Lithium Energy increasing by more than 2% [1] Group 2 - Tianqi Lithium is expected to turn a profit in its mid-year report, with a net profit forecast between 0 to 155 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Ganfeng Lithium's losses are expected to narrow, with a forecasted net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, compared to a loss of 760 million yuan last year [2] - The lithium sector is seeing accelerated resource clearance, with domestic battery production increasing by nearly 40% year-on-year, benefiting the lithium price and the industry's long-term profitability [2][3] Group 3 - Among the 60 companies covered by the Color Metal Leader ETF, 27 have disclosed mid-year performance forecasts, with over 80% expecting profits, and 10 companies predicting a doubling of net profits [3] - Northern Rare Earth is expected to see a net profit increase of 1882% to 2014% year-on-year, leading the sector [3] - The overall improvement in the non-ferrous metal industry is attributed to multiple factors, including macro policy benefits, geopolitical disturbances, and emerging demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and robotics [3][5] Group 4 - As of the end of June, the market-to-book ratio of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index was 2.24, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its historical median of 2.52, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investment [6] - The Color Metal Leader ETF and its linked funds track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, which has significant weightings in copper (26.1%), gold (16.3%), aluminum (15.8%), rare earths (8.5%), and lithium (7.7%), providing risk diversification [7]