1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Group 1 - The global loose monetary policy is providing support for cyclical sectors [1] - The rise in non-ferrous metals is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with technology remaining the main focus [1] - There is a consensus among analysts that the market dynamics are likely to shift towards cyclical sectors due to multiple resonating factors in the non-ferrous metals sector [1]

Market Overview - On September 12, A-shares showed a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising and breaking the previous high of 3888.60 points set on August 26, marking the highest level since August 19, 2015 [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.15%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.52% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with over 3000 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals and storage chip sectors performed strongly, while the solid-state battery and CPO sectors continued to adjust [1] - Notable gains in the non-ferrous metals sector included Northern Copper Industry (000737) hitting the daily limit, with Yunnan Copper (000878) and Zhongfu Industrial (600595) also rising [1] - On September 11, the London Metal Exchange reported an increase in basic metals, with aluminum rising by 2.06% to $2679 per ton and copper up by 0.44% to $10057 per ton, reaching a six-month high [1] Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector showed significant strength, with Demingli (001309) hitting the daily limit and Dongxin Co. rising over 10% [3] - Kioxia announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to develop a new type of SSD that is nearly 100 times faster than traditional SSDs, which is expected to enhance GPU direct connection and data exchange [3] AI Cloud Market - The computing power leasing concept gained traction, with Alibaba Cloud-related stocks performing well, including Runjian Co. (002929) hitting the daily limit and Xinjun Network (605398) achieving three consecutive limits [5] - According to Omdia, the AI cloud market in China is projected to reach 22.3 billion yuan by the first half of 2025, with Alibaba Cloud holding a 35.8% market share, surpassing the combined share of the second to fourth players [5] CPO and Solid-State Battery Sectors - The CPO sector continued to adjust, with stocks like Xinyi Sheng (300502) down nearly 5%, Tianfu Communication (300394) down over 5%, and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) down over 3% [6] - The solid-state battery sector also saw declines, with Xiandao Intelligent (300450) dropping over 5%, and other companies like Nandu Power (300068) and Haike New Source (301292) following suit [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US released its August non - farm payroll data, with only 22,000 new jobs added, falling short of the previous value and expectations. The slowdown in the US labor market is becoming more evident. The weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, and Trump's "recalibration" of policies is beneficial to gold. In the long run, the US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals further, with a weak US dollar pattern continuing [6]. - Domestic: In August, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, while the CPI declined. The anti - involution and trade - in policies have shown initial results. In the short term, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and there is a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The market uses a dumbbell structure to handle market divergence, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend due to the decline in incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The hedging and defensive approach continues, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with concerns about the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence drive prices up. The short - term judgment is a sideways - up trend, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [8]. 3.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The impact of production restrictions weakens, and the price is in a low - level sideways trend. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The hot metal production decreases more than expected, and port inventories increase slightly. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: After the military parade production restrictions end, the first round of price cuts begins. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply drops significantly, and the spot price weakens. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession rises, putting pressure on copper prices. The short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The warehouse receipts increase again, and the price is under sideways pressure. The short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and the price continues to rise. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [8]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the short - term judgment is a sideways - down trend, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: The valuation repair is over, and the short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot prices in South China and Shandong are at parity, and the futures price is in a downward trend below 3500. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. 3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is relatively bearish, and market sentiment is weak. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market has both long and short factors, and the price continues to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: As new grains are gradually put on the market, look for opportunities to short at high prices. The short - term judgment is a sideways trend, with attention to less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a marginal improvement in real estate sales, while durable goods consumption shows signs of weakness, indicating a mixed economic outlook in various sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - New home sales in major cities have shown a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with first-tier cities experiencing a decline of 6.8%, while second and third-tier cities saw increases of 8.2% and 11.4% respectively [5]. - Despite the improvement in real estate sales, the impact on construction starts remains weak, and infrastructure demand continues to be subdued, leading to a decline in demand for construction materials [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Durables - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 4.6% year-on-year in August 2025, but the growth rate has significantly slowed down due to a high base from the previous year [5]. - The service consumption sector has shown a decline, with a notable drop in movie box office revenues by 51% week-on-week during the back-to-school period [5]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Technology - The construction demand remains weak, affecting the construction industry, while steel prices have slightly increased due to environmental production limits, and cement prices continue to decline [6]. - Global semiconductor sales have seen a robust year-on-year growth of 20.6% in July 2025, driven by strong demand in AI capital expenditures [6]. Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand has decreased significantly week-on-week, with a 17.6% drop in the migration scale index, although it remains up 5% year-on-year [7]. - Freight logistics have also shown a decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 1.0% and 1.2% respectively week-on-week [7].

报告导读： 地产政策优化，楼市景气边际改善；耐用品增长乏力，受高基数影响， 8 月 乘用车零售增速继续放缓，开学周服务景气有所回落；降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 地产销售边际改善，耐用品增长乏力。 上周（ 09.01-09.07 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）北上深等多地优化地产政策后，国内新房销售同比增速 延续改善，一线城市地产销售降幅继续收窄，楼市景气边际改善；但楼市的改善对地产开工影响微弱，且基建需求仍偏弱，建筑资源品需求仍在磨底，受益于 环保限产的钢铁价格小幅上涨，水泥价格仍明显下滑。 2 ）乘用车零售销量延续增长，但 24 年同期高基数影响下，增速明显放缓，耐用品景气持续性有待 观察；开学周，服务消费景气继续回落，电影票房环比大幅下滑，客运需求环比下降，但同比仍偏强。 3 ）汽车钢胎、 PTA/ 涤纶、钢厂高炉开工率环比下 降，或反映反内卷推行提高企业限产意愿，但工业品价格端仍未出现明显改善信号；受益于美联储降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 下游消费：一线城市地产销售降幅收窄，乘用车零售增速回落。 1 ）地产： 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比 +4.4% 。其中一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gansu Province is actively promoting high-quality development through the enhancement of new productive forces, focusing on industrial upgrading and green transformation, which lays a solid foundation for building a modern industrial system [1][3]. Economic Performance - In the first half of this year, Gansu's GDP grew by 6.3% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above the national average for 14 consecutive quarters [3]. - Gansu Investment Group has invested a total of 39 billion yuan in sectors such as new energy, new materials, biomedicine, and equipment manufacturing since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. Corporate Developments - Jinchuan Group has invested over 33.8 billion yuan in emerging industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 149% increase [4]. - Gansu Technology Group has completed 20 investment projects with a total investment of 1.451 billion yuan, enhancing its development momentum [4]. Green Development Initiatives - Jiu Steel Group is advancing its steel and non-ferrous industries towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, achieving a green electricity ratio of 26.4% [5]. - Gansu Xukang Food Co., Ltd. has established a 5,000-ton organic fertilizer production line, achieving zero emissions and resource recycling [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities analyzes the contribution of profit, valuation, and dividends to the recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting the breakdown of valuation contributions into risk-free rate and risk preference [1]. A-shares Performance Breakdown - In the past year, the total increase of A-shares was 50.66%, with dividend contribution at 1.85%, profit contribution at 6.5%, risk-free rate contribution at 14.1%, and risk preference contribution at 28.2% [1]. Hong Kong Stocks Performance Breakdown - The Hang Seng Index increased by 55.47% over the past year, with dividend contribution at 2.99%, profit contribution at 10.56%, risk-free rate contribution at 25.34%, and risk preference contribution at 16.59% [4]. Industry Performance Analysis - A-shares - Among A-shares, sectors such as telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, media, machinery, and electronics showed positive profit contributions, while sectors like coal, petrochemicals, food and beverage, utilities, and construction faced declines due to limited valuation increases alongside profit downturns [6]. Industry Performance Analysis - A-shares (Secondary Level) - In the secondary industry analysis of A-shares, sectors with significant increases generally had positive profit contributions, while sectors like ground weaponry, glass fiber, new metal materials, automation equipment, auto parts, small appliances, and rubber had negative profit contributions driven mainly by valuation [7]. Industry Performance Analysis - Hong Kong Stocks - For Hong Kong stocks, leading sectors such as agriculture, light industry, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, steel, and electronics had positive profit contributions, while sectors like social services, construction, petrochemicals, and coal were negatively impacted by profit declines and limited valuation increases [11]. Industry Performance Analysis - Hong Kong Stocks (Secondary Level) - In the secondary industry analysis of Hong Kong stocks, leading sectors generally had positive profit contributions, while sectors like automation equipment, semiconductors, medical devices, and communication equipment faced negative profit contributions primarily due to valuation [13].

2025 年 09 月 10 日 宏观经济点评 宏 观 经 济 点 开 源 证 券 证 券 相关研究报告 PPI 同比增速回升或因输入性与地产链基数回落 《非美地区需求或仍锚定美国需求— 宏观经济点评》-2025.9.9 《国债买卖或重启，服务消费有望加 码—宏观周报》-2025.9.7 《 就业降温明显，但 50bp 降息尚需 通胀配合—美国 8 月非农就业数据点 评》-2025.9.6 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | | | guoxiaobin@kysec.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | | | 证书编号：S0790525070004 | | | 事件：8 月 | CPI | 同比-0.4%，预期-0.2%，前值 | 0%；PPI | 同比-2.9%，预期-2.9%， | 核心 CPI 环比连续五个月超季节性 8 月 CPI 同比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点至-0.4%；环比较前值下降 0.4 个百分点 至 0%。 1、鲜菜价格带动食品 CPI 环比回升 8 月 CPI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Volatile pattern [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish pattern [1] - Gold: Bullish pattern [4] - Silver: Bullish pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Volatile pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum, Alumina): Aluminum - Volatile pattern; Alumina - Bearish pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Volatile [4] - Carbonate Lithium: Cautiously bearish [6] - Silicon Energy: Bearish pattern [6] - Steel and Iron Ore (Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore): Volatile pattern [5][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile pattern [7] - Soda Ash and Glass: Volatile pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Volatile pattern [9] - Methanol: Volatile pattern [9] - Polyolefins: Bearish pattern [9] - Cotton: Bearish pattern [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - The market is in a structural situation with cautious sentiment. The decline in trading volume and short - term slowdown of incremental funds limit the overall rise of the stock market. The bond market is under pressure due to economic data differentiation and policy expectations. In the commodity market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic data influence the trends of different varieties [1][4][6][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market was weakly sorted on Tuesday, with the ChiNext leading the decline. Trading volume decreased to 2.15 trillion yuan (previous value 2.46 trillion). The real estate and banking sectors led the gains, while the electronics and computer industries led the losses. The stock index futures fell, but the overall decline was smaller than that of the spot index. The market is in a volatile pattern due to cautious sentiment, profit - taking pressure, and short - term slowdown of incremental funds [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market continued to weaken across the board, with the TL contract having the most significant decline. Domestic economic data is still differentiated. The central bank made a small - scale net withdrawal in the open market, and the capital cost continued to rise. The market's concerns about the bond market intensified, and the upward pressure persisted [1] Precious Metals - The large downward revision of the non - farm employment benchmark in the US further confirmed the cooling of the employment market. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates once in September rose to 93%. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2512 and AG2512 [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price continued to oscillate at a high level. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts was strengthened, but the concern about recession also increased. The dollar index rebounded slightly. The supply of the mining end was tense, and the demand was affected by the high - price aversion. The copper price was supported by the weak dollar and tight supply [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina price continued to weaken, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased slightly. The alumina was in a bearish pattern with an expected supply surplus, while the domestic and overseas aluminum inventories were low, and the price was resilient [4] - **Nickel**: The supply of the nickel mining end was loose, and the refined nickel was in an oversupply situation. The price was affected by the fundamentals and showed a volatile and weak trend, but the downward space was relatively limited [4] Carbonate Lithium - The news of the potential resumption of production at the Jianxiawo Mine may lead to a decline in lithium prices. It is necessary to verify the authenticity of the news and the actual progress of resumption [6] Silicon Energy - **Industrial Silicon**: In September, the supply - demand pattern turned to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The market was mainly under pressure and oscillating [6] - **Polysilicon**: The market's expectation of policies such as capacity storage and joint production restriction fermented, but the fundamentals had no signs of improvement. The supply was loose, and the price was suppressed [6] Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The spot price fluctuated slightly, and the inventory increased against the season. The supply was not effectively restricted, and the demand in the peak season needed to be verified. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on rebar in the January contract [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The fundamentals of steel were accumulating contradictions, but the terminal demand was expected to improve. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil to short the steel mill's profit [5] - **Iron Ore**: The consumption of imported iron ore in September was supported by high blast furnace iron - making and pre - holiday replenishment. The supply and demand contradiction was limited, and the price was supported. It is recommended to hold the long - iron - ore and short - rebar arbitrage strategy in the January contract [5][7] Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The coal mines were in the resumption stage, and the coal price was under pressure, but the downward space was limited [7] - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was basically implemented. The coking enterprises still had a certain profit space, but the futures price was under pressure [7] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The daily production decreased slightly. Although the supply exceeded demand, the short - term delivery was okay, and the inventory increase of alkali plants was slower than expected. The anti - involution expectation was the key to the future price direction [7] - **Float Glass**: The supply did not significantly shrink, and the high inventory was difficult to digest. The demand might improve seasonally. Whether the anti - involution expectation was falsified determined the future price trend. It is recommended to hold the long positions of the 01 contract below 1200 with a stop - loss [7] Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical events caused short - term price fluctuations, but the market's expectation of supply surplus remained unchanged, which continued to suppress the oil price [9] - **Methanol**: The demand for olefin procurement provided support. The methanol market showed a pattern of weakness in coastal areas and strength in inland areas. The futures price was in a stalemate, and it was recommended to sell the C2300 option [9] - **Polyolefins**: The increase in Middle - East production and the narrowing of the domestic - foreign price difference led to an increase in import offers. The inventory at all levels was higher than last year, and the price was in a downward trend [9] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton harvest is expected to be abundant, and it is expected to be listed earlier. The demand has not shown obvious peak - season performance. The Zhengzhou cotton may run weakly and oscillate [9] - **Rubber**: The market sentiment weakened, but the fundamentals supported the price. The demand for tires was positive, the new rubber output was affected by the climate, and the inventory was decreasing [9]