1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the trading strategy is to conduct range - bound operations. For polysilicon, before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The basis (East China 553 - futures main contract) was 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply**: Southwest production areas are entering the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, resulting in a significant decline in the operating rate. In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Although the number of open furnaces in the north increased steadily, the overall supply decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 price rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract was 54,045 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October still increased slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - On November 12, the ceremony for the full grid - connection of the 35 - megawatt solar photovoltaic power station equipment project aided by China to Cuba was held. The project includes 7 photovoltaic power stations, which will increase Cuba's clean power supply capacity and save about 18,000 tons of imported fuel annually [1]. - On November 6, the first - phase 102.56 - megawatt power generation unit of the Puxi Photovoltaic Project of the Dadu River Ashui (New Energy) Company under the National Energy Group was successfully connected to the grid, marking the commissioning of the first - phase components of the group's highest - altitude centralized photovoltaic power station [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - **Lithium**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - **Nickel**: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - **Tin**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - **Copper**: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - **Lithium**: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - **Nickel**: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - **Tin**: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - **Copper**: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - **Lithium**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - **Tin**: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - **Copper**: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Views - The anti - involution progress in the new energy industry may be delayed, and the demand for lithium salts is strong [1] - Industrial silicon supply and demand both decline during the dry season, with slight inventory reduction, and the silicon price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9400 in the short term [5] - Polysilicon production and demand will both decline in November. The capacity acquisition plan may be delayed, and the price may range from 4.8 - 5.8 in the short term [6] - For lithium carbonate, supply recovery is limited, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [85] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 9.04 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week decrease. In October, the output was 45.22 tons, a 7.46% month - on - month increase and a 3.75% year - on - year decrease; November's planned output is 38.95 tons, a 13.88% month - on - month decrease and a 3.84% year - on - year decrease [5] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease; organic silicon DMC weekly production is 4.87 tons, a 1.67% week - on - week increase [5] - **Inventory**: Explicit inventory is 67.87 tons, a 1.96% week - on - week decrease; industry inventory is 45.20 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease [5] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9240 yuan, a 0.05% week - on - week decrease; the average profit per ton is - 56 yuan, an 11 - yuan per - ton week - on - week decrease [5] - **Investment View**: The price may fluctuate between 8200 - 9400 in the short term [5] Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease. In October, the output was 13.4 tons, a 3.08% month - on - month increase and a 1.90% year - on - year increase; November's planned output is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% month - on - month decrease and a 7.62% year - on - year increase [6] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 12.98GW, a 1.96% week - on - week decrease; single - GW profit is - 4262 yuan, a 1000 - yuan week - on - week decrease [6] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 27.86 tons, a 0.61% week - on - week increase; registered warehouse receipts are 24360 tons, a 17.56% week - on - week decrease [6] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41633 yuan, a 0.07% week - on - week increase; the average profit per ton is 8617 yuan, a 30 - yuan per - ton week - on - week decrease [6] - **News**: The Chinese government has rejected the first proposal to set up an industry integration fund to acquire and shut down inefficient polysilicon production capacity [6] - **Investment View**: The price may range from 4.8 - 5.8 in the short term, maintaining the view of long - term fundamental improvement [6] Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.15 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase. In October, the output was 9.23 tons, a 5.73% month - on - month increase and a 55.00% year - on - year increase; November's planned output is about 9.21 tons, a 0.20% month - on - month decrease and a 43.56% year - on - year increase [85] - **Import**: In September, lithium carbonate imports were 1.96 tons, a 10.30% month - on - month decrease and a 20.49% year - on - year increase; lithium concentrate imports were 52.05 tons, a 10.61% month - on - month increase and a 38.01% year - on - year increase [85] - **Demand**: For lithium iron phosphate materials, weekly production is 9.99 tons, a 3.15% week - on - week increase; for ternary materials, weekly production is 1.98 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase. In October, new energy vehicle production was 177.20 million, a 9.59% month - on - month increase and a 21.13% year - on - year increase; sales were 171.50 million, a 6.92% month - on - month increase and a 19.92% year - on - year increase [85] - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 12.05 tons, a 2.81% week - on - week decrease; lithium salt factory inventory is 2.83 tons, a 7.96% week - on - week decrease; downstream inventory is 9.22 tons, a 1.11% week - on - week decrease [85] - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging pressure [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a clearer lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long on dips. Polysilicon is expected to return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week to 9020 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8850 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 830 yuan/ton to 54045 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Organic Silicon "Anti - involution", Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. Southwest China may have further furnace shutdowns during the dry season. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.06 million tons. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November and a de - stocking of about 1 million tons in December, but "anti - involution" in organic silicon may affect December's de - stocking [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon increased. The industry reached a consensus on production cut and price support. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 73.62%, the weekly output was 48,700 tons (a 1.67% increase), and the inventory was 42,100 tons (a 3.22% decrease). The success of "anti - involution" depends on production cut implementation [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The spot mainly delivered previous orders. Considering the dry season, the production schedule in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons. As of November 13, the factory inventory was 267,000 tons (an increase of 0.8 million tons). The spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to remain flat in November [13] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of silicon wafers was volatile. After a price cut on Tuesday, several enterprises jointly raised prices on Thursday. The production cut is not obvious, with a production schedule of 57 - 58GW in November. As of November 13, the inventory was 18.42GW (an increase of 0.9GW). The price is expected to fluctuate [14] - **Battery Cell**: The price of battery cells continued to decline. Indian demand shifted, and domestic demand also decreased. As of November 10, the inventory was 5.81GW (an increase of 1.96GW). The production schedule in November is 57.4GW. The price may loosen further [15] - **Component**: The component price was basically stable. Some high - power component quotes increased. The demand declined, and the production schedule in November is expected to be 44.4GW (a decrease of 1GW). There are concerns about a significant decline in December's production schedule [16] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. The price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply. It is more cost - effective to go long on dips [3] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is expected to remain stable in November. The futures may return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3.4 Hot News Summaries - **Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices**: Several silicon wafer enterprises jointly raised prices to support "anti - involution" competition. The actual transaction depends on downstream acceptance [18] - **Positive Results in Photovoltaic Industry Self - regulation**: The self - regulation of the photovoltaic industry has achieved positive results. Product prices are gradually stabilizing, and the situation where polysilicon prices are below cost has improved [18] - **Statement on Online False News**: The association is promoting industry self - regulation and "anti - involution" work. Online rumors are false information [19] 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [21][24][26][28] - **Organic Silicon**: It includes data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36][40] - **Silicon Wafer**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [41][43][44] - **Battery Cell**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54][55] - **Component**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60][61]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided. However, individual product trends and potential investment suggestions are given: - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. - For asphalt, it is suggested to try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. - For polyester (PTA and ethylene glycol), PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. - For short - fiber, the price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. - For polyolefins, the price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. - For soda ash, the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184]. 3. Core Views - The energy and chemical industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. Most products face supply - side pressure, and the demand side shows different degrees of weakness. Crude oil and related products are affected by global supply - demand imbalances, while some chemical products are affected by industry - specific factors such as production capacity changes and downstream demand trends [8][30][85]. 4. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices fluctuated with a downward trend. WTI and SC prices decreased slightly, while Brent increased slightly. The market is in a situation of supply surplus in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Supply**: OPEC + supply release is relatively stable, but the suspension of production increase in the 1st quarter of 2026 has limited support. Non - OPEC supply continues to increase, and the supply surplus is deepening [9][11]. - **Demand**: EIA and IEA expect global demand growth to be mainly driven by non - OECD countries, but the growth rate is relatively slow compared to supply growth [10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in various regions also decreased. The cost side is affected by the weakening of the crude oil market, and the demand side in the northern region has declined significantly [29]. - **Supply**: Some refineries plan to adjust production or conduct maintenance, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [29][32]. - **Demand**: The demand in the northern region has decreased significantly due to weather factors, and the demand in the southern region has also declined marginally [29][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. Polyester (PTA and Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: PTA cost support was strong first and then weak, and ethylene glycol prices oscillated downward [55]. - **Supply**: PTA supply is expected to be sufficient, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices and new device trials [55][56]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester is stable in the short term but has a weakening expectation in the future [56]. - **Operation Suggestion**: PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of polyester short - fiber in the East China market declined oscillatingly last week [67]. - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [67][69]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is weak, and the support for short - fiber is gradually weakening [68][69]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined slightly. The market is in a situation of bottom - oscillating due to supply - demand contradictions and cost - side pressure [73][84]. - **Supply**: The new production capacity is gradually released, and the production is expected to increase. Some maintenance devices will restart, and the production loss will decrease [85][86]. - **Demand**: The peak season is over, and the demand is expected to weaken. The downstream mainly conducts just - in - time procurement, and the demand support is weak [85]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly, and the price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [114]. - **Supply**: The overall supply is loose, and the new production capacity is expected to be released in the future, increasing the supply pressure [119]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream glass industries is weak, and the inventory of glass is high, which may further reduce the demand for soda ash [131][132]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated after a short - term rise. The price is affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest region and news in the photovoltaic industry [147]. - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region has decreased due to factors such as power cost increases, and the overall supply is affected [148]. - **Demand**: The demand from the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries has different trends. The demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is relatively stable, while the organic silicon industry plans to reduce production [149][150]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated with a weak start and then a strong end. The price is affected by policy expectations and market news [164]. - **Supply**: The supply is still higher than the demand, and the actual production reduction needs to be observed [165]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand has not recovered from the weak stage, and the price increase of polysilicon is limited by the downstream acceptance [165][168]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, and the spot price of imported pulp also increased. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure at the previous high [183]. - **Supply**: The supply pressure from domestic and foreign pulp mills is still released to the domestic market, and the inventory has increased [184]. - **Demand**: The performance of downstream base papers is still differentiated, and the packaging paper market is good, while other base paper prices are stable [184]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the overall inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote, there may be room for the price to rise. For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, so the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9150 yuan/ton and closed at 9145 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 267,758 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,387 lots, a decrease of 549 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on November 13 was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week. The inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 127,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [1]. - **Consumption Side**: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 12,000 - 12,500 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising this week, with the current quotation range up about 1100 yuan/ton from the average price last week. Shandong monomer enterprises quoted 12,500 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises stopped quoting [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken on dips for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, opening at 53,500 yuan/ton and closing at 54,195 yuan/ton, a 3.69% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 144,026 lots (140,617 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 277,916 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.09% month - on - month increase, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW, a 5.14% month - on - month increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a - 0.74% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12GW, a - 2.45% month - on - month change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [6][7]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a "anti-involution" self-discipline movement, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and potential investment opportunities as the industry recovers from prolonged losses [1][2] Group 1: Industry Actions - Various segments within the chemical sector are actively pursuing self-discipline actions, such as polysilicon leading companies forming a consortium to store capacity, caprolactam reducing production to support prices, and the organic silicon industry promoting self-regulation [1][2] - The polysilicon sector plans to establish a fund of approximately 70 billion yuan to eliminate excess capacity and address accumulated industry debts, which is expected to drive up silicon material prices [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The chemical industry has been in a bottoming phase for over two years, with profitability at historical lows, but new capacity investments are nearing completion, indicating a potential turning point by 2026 [1] - The organic silicon industry has seen continuous improvement in supply-demand conditions this year, with expectations for further enhancement next year, as previous negative factors have been largely mitigated [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector presents left-side layout opportunities, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages and reasonable valuations in segments like soda ash, coal chemical, and titanium dioxide, which are characterized by high energy consumption and a significant proportion of outdated capacity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact and implications of the polysilicon storage plan in the solar industry, questioning whether the recent market recovery is a genuine reflection of supply and demand or merely a result of speculative narratives [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Recent statements from a polysilicon company’s secretary indicated that the storage plan has failed, leading to volatility in stock prices and polysilicon futures [2][3]. - The past year has seen repeated announcements regarding the storage plan, causing significant fluctuations in market sentiment and prices, with some market participants profiting from these speculative narratives [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The polysilicon storage plan could significantly alter market dynamics and production capacity, necessitating careful evaluation of its benefits versus drawbacks [4][5]. - Despite the lack of a finalized storage plan, the ongoing discussions and media coverage have led to a notable increase in polysilicon prices and related company stock prices since May [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - The article emphasizes the need for a cautious and serious approach to the storage plan, advocating for adherence to market-oriented and legal frameworks to prevent exploitation of the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rumors regarding the failure of the silicon material storage platform have been officially denied by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, emphasizing that the industry is working steadily on related efforts [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - The stock prices of related listed companies and the polysilicon futures market experienced fluctuations due to the rumors [2] - Since May, the polysilicon price has shown a significant increase, and related listed companies have also seen their prices rise from low levels [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The polysilicon storage plan poses substantial risks and could significantly alter market dynamics and production capacity, necessitating careful evaluation of its benefits versus drawbacks [3][4] - The ongoing discussions and media coverage regarding the storage plan have led to a chaotic information environment, with repeated speculation affecting market sentiment [3] Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - The implementation of the polysilicon storage plan should be approached with caution and within a framework of marketization and rule of law to avoid market exploitation [4]

受消息影响，相关上市公司股价、多晶硅期货市场均出现波动。 过去一年时间里，这样的剧情在多晶硅领域反复上演——收储方案定了！收储方案又定了！收储方案黄 了！"小作文"反复横跳，也把市场的心牵动得七上八下。有投资人开玩笑说，虽然收储方案没有落地， 但一篇篇小作文已经让部分市场主体赚得盆满钵满。 这明显与法治化市场化"反内卷"的要求有所背离。 首先，由于多晶硅收储方案可能对市场格局和产能带来巨大改变，其本身就潜藏着对市场的极大影响。 在多晶硅正经历技术迭代的关键时期，收储到底是利大于弊还是弊大于利，就是需要谨慎衡量的。 近日，有消息称某多晶硅上市公司董秘在会议中说，"硅料收储平台黄了。"11月12日下午，中国光伏行 业协会紧急辟谣，称"当下，协会和行业内各企业正一道努力，相关工作正在稳步推进。网络流传的小 道消息均为不实信息，望请各位注意甄别，慎重决策"。 但反观从5月至今的多晶硅收储进程，尽管方案并未最终落地，但相关上市公司人士多次在公开场合或 者接受媒体采访时以各种方式提及硅料收储，行业的小作文也此起彼伏，让整个进程始终处于一种反复 被炒作，但信息极度混乱的情况中。 毫无疑问，如此庞大的收储方案，每一个进程都必 ...