Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 08 月 08 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 多晶硅日报 08 月 07 日，多晶硅仓单数量 3580 手， ...

中国近期在光伏、锂电、电动车等终端制造业推进的"反内卷"行动，已超越单纯产业调控范畴，深刻体 现了国家经济发展战略导向。这一导向在政策层面得到清晰延续：今年4月召开的中共中央政治局会议 提出"规范竞争秩序"，7月召开的中共中央政治局会议进一步深化导向，明确提出"推动市场竞争秩序持 续优化"，同时聚焦"增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"，构建了从产 业端到资本市场的完整政策体系。从逻辑内核看，理解资本市场的吸引力与包容性，需以"反内卷"为基 石，进而巩固资本市场回稳态势，实现资本与企业的良性循环。 "反内卷"优化市场生态 "反内卷"通过系统性优化市场生态，为资本市场夯实基本面支撑，核心体现为四方面协同发力。 一是破除市场分割，需纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，打破地方保护主义，促进要素跨区域自由流动。 这一举措能从空间维度减少同质化竞争，让要素在更广域市场实现最优配置，避免局部资源低效堆积， 为企业创造公平竞争的底层环境。 二是规范竞争行为，要以法治手段治理企业无序竞争。以多晶硅行业为例，通过行业自律与监管协同， 针对部分企业为抢占市场份额而实施的低于成本价倾销等乱象，依据《中华人民共和国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ningxia Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan for the allocation of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025, emphasizing the increase of green electricity consumption in key energy-intensive industries [1] Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Targets - The plan specifies that by 2025, the green electricity consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will be no less than 34.2% [1] - The steel, cement, and polysilicon industries will also have a green electricity consumption ratio set at no less than 34.2% [1] - New data centers at national hub nodes are required to achieve a green electricity consumption ratio of 80% [1]

多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 50110 | -1235 多晶硅11-12价差 | -3220 | -85 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 136324 | -2072 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 41455 | -1190 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 47000 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -3110 | 1235 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8655 | -45 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing fluctuations, with polysilicon futures showing a significant decline of 2.41% to 50,310.0 yuan/ton [1] Supply - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a notice regarding the special energy conservation inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry for 2025, which strengthens the expectations for capacity reduction in polysilicon production [1] Demand - Downstream silicon wafer companies are maintaining stable prices, and there is an increase in export demand due to expectations of reduced export tax rebates. Production schedules are expected to increase this month, with prices smoothly transmitting to battery cells. However, recent price reductions in mainstream component specifications raise concerns about end-user acceptance [1] Market Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is expected to remain a key area of focus, with support from lower spot prices. Downstream silicon wafers and battery cells are anticipated to rise in price, but components have not yet adjusted. There is an increase in warehouse receipts, leading to a cooling market sentiment, with short-term expectations of high-level fluctuations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are significantly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with relatively stable fundamentals. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, while the polysilicon market is mainly dominated by policy expectations and has large overall fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8400 yuan/ton and closed at 8700 yuan/ton, with a change of 305 yuan/ton (3.63%) compared to the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract was 208,736 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,580 lots, a change of - 226 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton [1] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guide for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliance Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region", and relevant departments will continue to implement "window guidance" for new and technological transformation projects of industrial silicon. Industry associations in Yunnan and Sichuan issued an initiative against involution and for high - quality development. The policy disturbances had an impact on the market. The consumer - side organic silicon DMC was quoted at 12,100 - 12,500 yuan/ton, with stable prices, general trading, and mainly rigid - demand purchases [2] Strategy - The current market is greatly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with little change in fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation. The strategy for the single - side is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 50,300 yuan/ton and closing at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a closing - price change of 3.23% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 138,396 lots (127,587 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 420,201 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the silicon wafer inventory increased, the weekly polysilicon production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [5] - In July, component enterprises slightly increased production, but the recent price fluctuations affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand improved marginally but was still at a low level, and centralized demand had waiting and pressure - exerting behaviors from central state - owned enterprises. It is expected that the output in August will decrease slightly month - on - month, with better production and shipment of large - size components led by HJT [6] Strategy - In August, the production in the southwest is expected to increase significantly, the polysilicon inventory will rise, the delivery rhythm of previous orders will slow down, and the signing of new orders is limited except for granular silicon. The market is more watchful. The current market is mainly dominated by policy expectations, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. The short - term single - side strategy is interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

Group 1: Economic Transition and Policy Implications - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China has been supported by both market forces and government policies, reflecting an improvement in national governance capabilities[3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to enhance institutional frameworks to help enterprises escape low-efficiency competition and focus on high-quality competition in technology, quality, and branding[6] - Recent political meetings have emphasized the need for long-term institutional changes rather than short-term price adjustments, reinforcing the core intent of the "anti-involution" policy[10] Group 2: Industry Upgrades and Standards - The ultimate goal of the "anti-involution" initiative is to increase value, leading to accelerated industrial upgrades through quality enhancement and brand differentiation, particularly for state-owned and leading enterprises[12] - New standards are being developed to phase out outdated production capacities, with specific industries like polysilicon already revising energy consumption standards to eliminate inefficiencies[14] - Industry concentration is expected to rise, as evidenced by recent moves from leading companies to acquire smaller competitors, indicating a consensus on consolidation even among private firms[14] Group 3: Local Government and Market Dynamics - Local government behaviors have contributed to the phenomenon of "involution," necessitating a focus on regulating these actions to unify market practices and standards[17] - The shift from financial subsidies to a focus on business environment and talent competition is anticipated to foster technological upgrades and innovation[20] - The cessation of land finance "involution" will lead to a greater emphasis on existing industries and resource endowments, enhancing local competitive advantages[21] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential overestimation of export growth impacting macroeconomic policy space and the possibility of credit support for "anti-involution" measures leading to unintended policy tightening[22]

2025年08月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需现实拖累，原料成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：智利出口回升，关注矿证续期情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,070 | 160 | -650 | -2,300 | 530 | -3,560 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,935 | -25 | 15 | 35 | 295 | 200 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 87,840 | 3,022 | -65, ...