Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the aluminum industry, highlighting the potential for high prices due to stable demand and controlled supply [4][8]. Core Insights - Aluminum is the most abundant metal on Earth, with Guinea holding the largest bauxite reserves at approximately 7.4 billion tons, accounting for 25.52% of global reserves [4][21]. - The global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to reach 72 million tons in 2024, with China maintaining a dominant position at 43 million tons, representing 60% of the total [4][67]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the green aluminum industry, particularly in regions like Yunnan, which benefits from abundant hydropower resources [5][70]. Summary by Sections Global Bauxite Resource Status - Bauxite is primarily found in Guinea, Australia, and other countries, with China having a relatively low reserve of 2.34% [21]. - In 2024, global bauxite production is expected to be 45 million tons, with Guinea contributing 13 million tons, or 28.89% [27]. Global Bauxite Production - The top three producers of bauxite in 2024 are Guinea (13 million tons), Australia (10 million tons), and China (9.3 million tons) [27][28]. - China imports significant amounts of bauxite from Guinea and Australia, with imports of 110.58 million tons and 39.89 million tons, respectively [27]. Global Alumina Production - The global alumina production is projected to be 142 million tons in 2024, with China producing 84 million tons, accounting for 60% of the total [37]. - China's alumina capacity is expanding rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of 6.86% [37]. Global Electrolytic Aluminum Production - The report indicates that the global electrolytic aluminum production will reach 72 million tons in 2024, with China leading at 43 million tons [67]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to the increasing use in renewable energy sectors [89]. Yunnan's Clean Energy Advantage - Yunnan province has a significant advantage in clean energy, with hydropower accounting for 71.22% of its total electricity generation in 2024 [70]. - The province is positioned to support high-energy-consuming industries like electrolytic aluminum production [70]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies Yunnan's green aluminum industry as having substantial growth opportunities due to its resource advantages and the EU's carbon tax policy [5][8]. - Companies like Yun Aluminum are highlighted as leaders in the green aluminum sector, with a comprehensive production capacity and a focus on sustainable practices [79].

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Alumina: Neutral [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Cautiously Bullish [7] Core Views - The seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is obvious. The downstream start - up rate has declined, and social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. In the long run, supply is limited and consumption has stable growth. The current rise in aluminum prices lacks fundamental support, but the long - term outlook remains optimistic [3] - The alumina supply is in a slight surplus. The total inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market is strong in the short term. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the game over warehouse receipts continues. The long - term surplus expectation remains [5] - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season. The price follows the aluminum price, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Summary by Category Aluminum - **Price Data**: On July 22, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20,900 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton (0.75%) [1] - **Inventory Data**: As of July 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 498,000 tons. As of July 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 438,450 tons, up 4,025 tons from the previous day [1] - **Market Analysis**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, downstream start - up rate has declined, and processing fees face losses. Social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, and long - term supply is limited while consumption has stable growth [3] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading and conduct Shanghai Aluminum positive arbitrage [7] Alumina - **Price Data**: On July 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,210 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,513 yuan/ton, up 201 yuan/ton (6.07%) [2] - **Market Analysis**: The supply is in a slight surplus, total inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market is strong in the short term. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the game over warehouse receipts continues [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral for unilateral trading [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price Data**: On July 19, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory Data**: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 37,200 tons, up 5,800 tons week - on - week. The factory inventory was 63,900 tons, down 7,000 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory was 101,100 tons, down 1,200 tons week - on - week [2] - **Market Analysis**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, the price follows the aluminum price, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading, and conduct long AD11 and short AL11 arbitrage [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of multiple commodities, offering insights into their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant market news. It suggests that different commodities are influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry - specific events. For example, some commodities like gold, silver, and aluminum are expected to show upward trends, while others like tin are predicted to experience price weakness. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.70, up 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 785.76, up 0.76%. [2][7][8] - Silver is predicted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪银2510 was 9271, down 0.02%, and the overnight closing price was 9420.00, up 1.85%. [2][7][8] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,770, up 1.70%. [2][11] - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22925, up 2.83%. [2][14] - Lead: The expected supply - demand contradiction supports the price, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16960, up 0.83%. [2][17] - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 267,250, up 1.02%. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will move upward in a volatile manner. Alumina shows strong short - term sentiment, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and casting aluminum alloy is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20840. [2][23] - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 122,550, and the closing price of stainless steel主力 was 12,905. [2][26] Energy - Related Commodities - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the futures was 809.0, up 3.06%. [2][38] - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to oscillate strongly. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The closing price of JM2509 was 1006, up 8.64%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1803, up 5.60%. [2][49][50] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, it will stabilize in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 from the previous settlement price. [2][53] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate lithium: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro - sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280, up 1,320. [2][31] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,260, up 565. [2][35] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660, up 1,810. [2][35] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,224, up 68, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,394, up 73. [2][41] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of硅铁2509 was 5668, up 160, and the closing price of锰硅2509 was 5914, up 110. [2][45] Others - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations during the off-season, and a growth stabilization plan is expected to be announced soon [6][11]. - Despite the off-season demand, the low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices [11]. - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 18, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2638.0 per ton, up $36.0 from the previous week, representing a 1.4% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20510.0 CNY per ton, down 185.0 CNY from the previous week, a 0.9% decrease week-on-week, but up 3.9% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20760.0 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week, but up 5.4% year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.9 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8 million tons year-on-year [53]. - The alumina production in June 2025 was 725.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 26.9 million tons year-on-year [53]. 3. Inventory - As of July 17, the domestic mainstream consumption area had an electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory of 49.20 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons week-on-week [7]. - The aluminum rod inventory was 15.60 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons week-on-week, mainly due to reduced production and downstream replenishment [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.71 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.12 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.62 CNY for 2025E [5]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.91 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2025E [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by tariff policies and supply - demand changes. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, and the supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement and waiting - and - seeing [3][5]. - The alumina market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a structurally surplus situation in July, but the spot market still has some support, and the upper pressure on the price rebound is around 3200 yuan [12][16]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The short - term price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range increase or decrease in July [21][22]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a weak supply - demand relationship. The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to be mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25][27]. - The zinc market has a continuous increase in supply and enters the off - season of consumption. The price is under pressure and may decline [33][34]. - The lead market has limited supply growth and improved consumption. The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [39][40]. - The nickel market is affected by tariff concerns, with weak supply and demand in the off - season. The price is weak and oscillating with cost support [43][44]. - The stainless steel market has poor demand both at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [49][50]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [55][56]. - The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and price transmission. The short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. - The lithium carbonate market has many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [65][66]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 77,980 yuan/ton, up 0.06%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 12,976 lots to 499,000 lots. In the spot market, the price trends in different regions vary [2]. Important Information - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement on July 15th. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. In June 2025, the import of copper ore and concentrates increased year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [3][4]. Logic Analysis - The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory is increasing, and the domestic supply is relatively sufficient. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Not provided Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3111 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 8379 lots to 422,200 lots. The spot price increased in different regions [9]. Important Information - There are many aspects of information, including China's central financial meeting, domestic spot transactions, warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [10][11][12]. Logic Analysis - The production capacity is stable, but the output is increasing. The supply - demand pattern is expected to change, and the spot market still has support [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions continue to hold; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract increased by 85 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot price increased slightly in different regions [20]. Important Information - It includes inventory changes, US inflation data, Sino - US trade information, and housing completion data [21]. Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - factors and fundamentals, the price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the inventory is expected to show a narrow - range change [22]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under short - term pressure and fluctuates; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [23] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 19,820 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 93 lots to 10,075 lots. The spot price remained stable [25]. Important Information - It includes production, cost, profit, and inventory data [25][26]. Logic Analysis - The supply is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [27]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure at a high level and maintains a bearish view; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider spot - futures arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is more than 400 yuan; Option: Wait and see [30] Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.27% to 22,030 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 3486 lots to 231,600 lots. The spot market trading is mainly among traders [32]. Important Information - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, the consumption is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions when the price is high; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Option: Wait and see [35] Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.65% to 16,925 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3823 lots to 96,600 lots. The spot market trading is not good [37]. Important Information - Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [39]. Logic Analysis - The supply growth is limited, the consumption is improving, and the short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out in the range; Arbitrage and Option: Not provided [41] Nickel Market Review - The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 increased by 1120 yuan to 120,710 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,098 lots. The spot premium changed [42]. Important Information - GKEML completed the LME warehouse receipts of three metals, and the US adjusted the tariff on Indonesian goods [43]. Logic Analysis - Affected by tariff concerns, the supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price is weak and oscillating [44]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Option: Wait and see [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2508 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 12,670 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 5886 lots. The spot price is in a certain range [48]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of the BIS stainless - steel certification rule, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless - steel products [49]. Logic Analysis - The demand is poor at home and abroad, and the price is under pressure due to over - supply and inventory accumulation [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [51] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated weakly and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The spot price of some grades increased [52][54]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [55]. Logic Analysis - The supply - demand situation in July may be balanced. The price may decline slightly in the short term and then rise after a correction [56]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price oscillates weakly and can be bullish after a correction; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [53] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose first and then fell, closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, up 1.50%. The spot price remained unchanged [57][58]. Important Information - China and the EU held an energy dialogue and agreed to continue cooperation in multiple fields [59]. Logic Analysis - Affected by rumors and price transmission, the short - term price may enter a volatile trend [60][62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Operate in the range; Arbitrage: Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon strategy; Option: Wait and see [63] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract increased by 260 yuan to 66,420 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 3318 lots. The spot price increased [64]. Important Information - China adjusted the technology export catalog, and Chilean indigenous groups applied to suspend a lithium - mining cooperation procedure [65]. Logic Analysis - There are many supply - side disturbances. The price may oscillate at a high level in the short term and may decline in the fourth quarter [66]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait for the right - side short - selling opportunity; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [67][68][70]

Group 1: Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: Seasonal off - peak is evident, downstream开工率 drops, but inventory is at a historically low level. Macro situation is temporarily positive. Aluminum smelting profit expands to 4000 yuan/ton in the off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation will provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long run, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily [1][3]. - **Alumina**: The spot market price rises. Supply is slightly in surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating at the raw material reserve of electrolytic aluminum plants. The low - warehouse receipt problem persists, but the in - transit inventory is increasing. The Axis mine right issue may be resolved, increasing the expectation of mine restart. Alumina smelting profit remains, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [4][5]. - **Aluminum alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season. The price follows the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract which turns into a peak - season contract [6]. 3. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Long SHFE aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 short AL11 [7]. Group 2: Key Data 1. Aluminum - **Spot price**: On July 14, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20470 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20330 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures price**: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20415 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 1.45%. The trading volume was 208641 lots, an increase of 88416 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 222489 lots, a decrease of 32657 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 50.1 tons [1]. 2. Alumina - **Spot price**: On July 14, 2025, Shanxi alumina price was 3150 yuan/ton, Shandong price was 3140 yuan/ton, Guangxi price was 3250 yuan/ton, and Australian alumina FOB price was 366 dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures price**: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3145 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 0.6% [2]. 3. Aluminum alloy - **Price**: On July 14, 2025, Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15100 yuan/ton, mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. ADC12 Baotai quoted price was 19500 yuan/ton, down - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in East China was - 870 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 3.14 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.25 tons; the in - plant inventory was 7.09 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.79 tons; the total inventory was 10.23 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.54 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes. The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. [5][7] - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13][14] - The electrolytic aluminum market is influenced by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations. The inventory shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21][22] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum and weak downstream demand, with some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28][29] - The zinc market has a situation of increasing supply and entering the consumption off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] - The lead market has a supply that is difficult to increase and improving consumption, and short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40][41] - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, with prices showing a volatile trend. [44][45] - The stainless - steel market is affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, with prices expected to be weak. [51][53] - The industrial silicon market may be in a state of supply - demand balance in July. With the reduction of production by leading enterprises and the resumption of production in the southwest, prices have strengthened recently. [60] - The polysilicon market has price fluctuations within a certain range, and traders are advised to adjust their positions according to market rumors. [65][66] - The lithium carbonate market is affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, with prices rising sharply in the short - term and expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2508 contract closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 7,283 lots to 510,300 lots. [2] - Spot: In the East China market, holders actively sold goods, and downstream buying was weaker than last week. In the Guangdong market, inventory increased significantly, and downstream procurement increased due to price drops. In the North China market, consumption was weak. [2] Important Information - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee. [3] - Codelco's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9% year - on - year, and the output of its El Teniente copper mine increased by 14%. [3] - As of July 14, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.39 million tons to 14.76 million tons compared with Thursday. [3] Logic Analysis - The US tariff impact on copper imports is approaching its end, and the supply situation in non - US regions is expected to ease. The LME copper inventory has bottomed out, and the price decline has slightly improved market procurement. [5][7] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for copper is provided in the report. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The alumina 2509 contract fell by 19 yuan to 3,145 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 8,041 lots to 422,200 lots. [9] - Spot: The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina remained flat, and the prices in most regions were stable, except for a 10 - yuan drop in Xinjiang. [9] Relevant Information - The central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. [10] - A Xinjiang electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina procurement price increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton. [10] - The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 4,803 tons on July 14. [11] - The national alumina production capacity was basically stable, with an increase in weekly output and inventory. [11] Logic Analysis - The alumina market is in a transition from tight balance to structural surplus, but downstream demand and inventory factors will support prices, with imports limiting price rebounds. [13] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the alumina price will generally fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply changes of bauxite in Guinea and the "anti - involution" sentiment. [14] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [15] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [15] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell by 300 yuan/ton to 20,415 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 47,247 lots to 644,600 lots. [17] - Spot: The spot price of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and the Central Plains decreased. [17] Relevant Information - The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingots increased by 28,000 tons compared with last Thursday. [18] - The basis of aluminum in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. [18] - China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity in May 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in June decreased year - on - year. [18] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - tariff concerns and domestic policy expectations, the inventory of aluminum ingots shows a narrow - range change pattern, and the demand in the off - season may not be too weak. [21] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The aluminum price may be under pressure in the short - term but should not be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [22] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [22] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 175 yuan to 19,805 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 562 lots to 9,951 lots. [24] - Spot: The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [24] Relevant Information - The output of recycled aluminum alloy in June increased, and the cost of the ADC12 industry increased, resulting in a narrowing of profits. [24][25] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased on July 14. [25] - The weekly output of casting aluminum alloy decreased, and the factory and social inventories showed different trends. [26] - Thailand plans to restrict the establishment and expansion of recycling plants. [26][27] Logic Analysis - Alloy ingot enterprises are restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and downstream die - casting plants have low operating rates. There are some trading opportunities in arbitrage. [28] Trading Strategy - Single - side: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to follow the high - pressure trend of aluminum prices. [29] - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is above 400 yuan. [29] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [29] Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2508 contract fell 0.67% to 22,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 13,800 lots to 238,300 lots. [31] - Spot: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Shanghai market was between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premium continued to decline. [31] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased compared with previous data. [32] Logic Analysis - The domestic zinc supply is increasing, and the consumption is entering the off - season, with prices likely to be under pressure. [33] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short positions can be held. [34] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [36] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [36] Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2508 contract fell 0.12% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 1,037 lots to 94,800 lots. [38] - Spot: The average price of SMM1 lead decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the transaction was average. [38] Relevant Information - As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with previous data. [39] - The average operating rate of three - province primary lead smelters decreased last week. [39] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving. Short - term prices may fluctuate at a high level. [40] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level, and high - selling and low - buying can be carried out within the range. [41] - Arbitrage: Sell put options. [44] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [41] Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2508 fell by 90 yuan to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,141 lots. [43] - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged. [43] Relevant Information - The export of Philippine nickel ore to Indonesia is expected to increase significantly. [45] - GreenMe has solved the problem of refining low - grade nickel ore. [45] Logic Analysis - Affected by macro - sentiment and policy changes in the Philippines and Indonesia, nickel prices show a volatile trend. [44][45] Trading Strategy No specific trading strategy for nickel is provided in the report. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2508 fell by 30 yuan to 12,715 yuan/ton, and the index reduced positions by 5,271 lots. [47] - Spot: The prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [47] Relevant Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved Hongwang Holdings as a delivery warehouse for stainless - steel futures. [48] - The US imposed tariffs on imports from multiple countries and regions. [48][49][50] Logic Analysis - Affected by external demand restrictions and high inventory pressure, stainless - steel prices are expected to be weak. [51][53] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - sell when the price is high after the macro - sentiment fades. [54] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [55] - Options: Consider the strategy of selling call options after the price rebounds. [52] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: Affected by market rumors, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 3.27% to 8,695 yuan/ton. [57] - Spot: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. [58] Relevant Information - A project in Nanchang is expected to increase the total production capacity by 23,679.23 t/a. [59] Logic Analysis - In July, the production of industrial silicon decreased by 20,000 tons. If leading enterprises do not resume production, the supply and demand will be basically balanced. The price has strengthened recently, and the inventory has shifted from factories to traders. [60] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Bullish in the short - term. [61] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [63] - Options: Exit the short position of Si2509 - C - 8500. [63] Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. [64] - Spot: The average price of some polysilicon products decreased. [64] Relevant Information - The price of domestic photovoltaic silicon wafers increased, and the transaction of battery cells began. [65] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market has many rumors, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 37,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton. [65] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Long - position holders can reduce positions and participate in short - term trading with a light position. [66] - Arbitrage: The strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon should stop profiting. [66] - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [66] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The main contract 2509 rose by 2,380 yuan to 66,480 yuan/ton, the index increased positions by 34,081 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 399 tons to 11,204 tons. [67] - Spot: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. [67] Relevant Information - As of the end of June 2025, the number of new - energy vehicles in China increased significantly. [69] - Panasonic postponed the production plan of its battery factory in the US. [69] Logic Analysis - Affected by policy rumors and low - inventory factors, lithium carbonate prices rose sharply in the short - term and are expected to return to a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. [70] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for the opportunity to short on the right - hand side. [71] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [72] - Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. [73]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable domestically, with China's economic growth projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the total economic output expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [6] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, leading to a potential accumulation of inventory in July, although low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply may provide some support for aluminum prices [11] - The report highlights the impact of overseas tariff disturbances, particularly from the U.S., which may affect the aluminum market dynamics [6] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 11, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,602.0 per ton, up $4.5 from the previous week, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week and a 124.0 increase year-on-year [15] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,695.0 yuan per ton, up 60.0 yuan from the previous week, marking a 0.3% increase week-on-week and a 595.0 increase year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 28,000 tons year-on-year [48] - The production of alumina in June 2025 was 7.258 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month-on-month, but an increase of 269,000 tons year-on-year [48] 3. Inventory - As of July 10, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a shift from accumulation to destocking [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 [5] 5. Demand - The downstream sectors are experiencing a pronounced off-season atmosphere, with aluminum processing rates remaining low, and the demand for aluminum rods is under pressure due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina futures are expected to be short - term bullish and oscillatory, targeting the key resistance level of 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected continuous release of supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [14][135]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is expected to oscillate within the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [15][136]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [15][136]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market Overview - **Macro**: Trump announced on July 9 that a 50% tariff would be imposed on all imported copper starting from August 1. Also, on July 7, he declared tariffs on imported products from 14 countries starting from August 1 and postponed the implementation of the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1 [8]. - **Spot**: As of July 11, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. As of July 4, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27 [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [8]. - **Demand**: As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The operating rates of the aluminum plate and strip and aluminum cable sectors decreased, while others remained stable [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3, mainly due to the increase in alumina price. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3 [10]. - **Overall Market Performance**: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminium, and aluminum alloy all showed a bullish and oscillatory trend [13]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price as of July 11 was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. Tightening spot circulation and spot discount transactions led to the rebound of the average spot price [27]. 2.1 Supply - As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. There is an expectation of future supply surplus due to capacity restart and new capacity release [31]. 2.1 Import and Export - As of July 10, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The alumina import and export windows are both closed [33]. 2.1 Cost and Profit - As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has expanded to about 284 yuan/ton [36]. 2.1 Inventory - As of July 10, the alumina port inventory was 26,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a low level in the past four years. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [40]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost - As of July 11, the pit - mouth coal price in Ordos decreased slightly, while those in Yulin, Datong, and the FOB coal price at Qinhuangdao Port increased. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/kWh. The pre - baked anode price in major production areas remained stable this week [48][52]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [57]. 2.3 Supply - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. As of the end of June, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96%, unchanged from the previous month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [59]. 2.4 Spot - As of July 11, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 4 [62]. 2.6 Demand - As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in June was 40.1%, remaining below the boom - bust line and down 8.8% from May [69]. 2.7 Inventory - As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports the price, but the support may weaken during the off - season [73]. 2.8 Futures Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from July 4. From July 4 to July 10, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 38,750 tons to 395,725 tons [77]. 2.9 Import and Export - The import profit window for aluminum ingots is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [79][84]. 2.11 Terminal - The real estate market is slowly recovering. From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 238,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period in July last year. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 135,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21% [88][90]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis 4.1 Raw Materials - The price of scrap aluminum has been high. The aluminum scrap - refined aluminum price difference shows certain characteristics [96][98]. 4.2 ADC12 Cost and Profit - The cost of ADC12 aluminum alloy has increased, and the profit situation is affected [100][101]. 4.3 ADC12 Spot Price - The average price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and there are differences in prices in different regions [103][106]. 4.4 Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit - The overseas ADC12 price and import profit situation have changed [108][111]. 4.5 Supply - The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy have certain characteristics [113][115]. 4.6 Demand - The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [117][120]. 4.7 Inventory - The inventory of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [128]. 4.8 Supply - Demand Balance - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain characteristics [130][131]. 3. Future Outlook - **Alumina**: In the short term, alumina futures are expected to be bullish and oscillatory, targeting 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected increase in supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [135]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE Aluminium is expected to oscillate within the range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [136]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [136].