5 . 1 7 - 5 . 2 3 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、深度专题 | 美国经济：关税冲击的监测框架——关税"压力测试"系列之八 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见"系列会议第31期 《 聚焦"关税战"》 2、 "洞见"系列会议第62期 《"反内卷"的新意？——"反内卷"系列专题之一》 深度专题 1、 热点思考 | "反内卷"的新意？ 2、热点思考 | 消费困局的"盲点"？ 1、新旧结构"转换期"？——4月经济数据点评 2、财政仍有提速空间——4月财政数据点评 3、海外高频 | 中美日内瓦谈判实现关税互降，金价回落 4、国内高频 | 集运价格走势分化 5、政策高频 | 综合整治"内卷式"竞争，维护公平竞争市场秩序 6、Top Charts | 中国制造"难替代性"——"反脆弱"系列专题之八 深度专题 | 美国经济：关税冲击的监测框架——关税"压力测试"系列之 1 八 深度专题 2025.5.18 关税冲击进入数据验证期，如何监测其经济影响？本文构建了贸易、价格和风险三大模块的监测框架，供参考 政府工作报告首提的"综合整治'内卷式'竞争 ...

Core Insights - The monitoring of prices for 50 key production materials across nine categories indicates that in mid-May 2025, 24 products saw price increases, 24 experienced declines, and 2 remained stable [1]. Group 1: Price Changes in Key Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices increased by 2.5 yuan per ton (0.1%), while ordinary medium plates decreased by 9.4 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [2]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, aluminum ingot prices rose by 487.9 yuan per ton (2.5%), while zinc ingot prices fell by 75.0 yuan per ton (-0.3%) [2]. - Chemical products showed significant price increases, with pure benzene rising by 520.6 yuan per ton (9.3%) and styrene increasing by 583.3 yuan per ton (8.1%) [2]. - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices dropped by 49.2 yuan per ton (-1.1%), while diesel prices increased slightly by 7.9 yuan per ton (0.1%) [2]. - Coal prices generally decreased, with ordinary mixed coal dropping by 21.9 yuan per ton (-4.3%) [2]. Group 2: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, the price of rice increased by 27.9 yuan per ton (0.7%), while the price of soybeans rose by 50.2 yuan per ton (1.2%) [3]. - Fertilizer prices showed mixed results, with urea increasing by 19.9 yuan per ton (1.0%), while compound fertilizer prices fell by 12.1 yuan per ton (-0.4%) [3]. - The price of natural rubber rose by 289.6 yuan per ton (2.0%), indicating a positive trend in the forestry sector [3]. Group 3: Monitoring Methodology and Scope - The price monitoring encompasses over 2,000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [6]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, as well as inquiries via phone, instant messaging, and email [7]. - The price changes are categorized based on percentage fluctuations, with a total of 50 products monitored across nine categories [8].

公司公告汇总 四川九洲电器股份有限公司计划使用自筹资金和回购专项贷款，通过深圳证券交易所交易系统以集中竞 价交易方式回购部分公司已发行的人民币普通股（A股）股票。回购资金总额不低于人民币1亿元 （含）且不超过人民币2亿元（含），回购价格不超过人民币26.37元/股（含）。回购期限为自2024年 度股东大会审议通过本回购股份方案之日起十二个月内。公司已取得中国银行股份有限公司四川省分行 提供的最高不超过18,000万元人民币的回购公司股票贷款承诺函，贷款期限三年。公司全体董事承诺本 次回购不会损害上市公司的债务履行能力和持续经营能力。回购方案需征询债权人同意，并及时履行披 露义务。公司将努力推进回购方案的顺利实施，并根据回购事项进展情况及时履行信息披露义务。 截至2025年5月23日收盘，四川九洲（000801）报收于15.7元，较上周的16.11元下跌2.55%。本周，四 川九洲5月22日盘中最高价报16.64元。5月23日盘中最低价报15.68元。四川九洲当前最新总市值160.58 亿元，在黑色家电板块市值排名4/10，在两市A股市值排名944/5148。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总：四川九洲电器股份有限公司 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices fell below $3300 due to factors such as the easing of geopolitical tensions, the alleviation of panic in the US and Japanese bond markets, and better - than - expected US economic data. Short - term market volatility is high, and there is a risk of correction, but the long - term view is bullish [1][13]. - For treasury bond futures, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and they are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to directly implement this strategy. It is advisable to go long in the medium - term but choose the right time [2][15]. - The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term as US business confidence improved in May, but caution is still needed as the US economic trend remains unchanged [20]. - US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and the pressure from long - term interest rates [27]. - For various commodities, different trends are expected. For example, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term; corn prices are expected to rise; copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term; etc. [4][43][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Japan's core CPI in April rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the national CPI rose 3.6% year - on - year. The US 5 - month manufacturing and service PMI rebounded more than expected. Gold prices fell below $3300 due to multiple factors. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of correction, while the long - term view is bullish [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation and a 154.5 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. In the short - term, treasury bond futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to go long [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - US business confidence improved in May, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize. The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - As of the end of March, loans to high - tech SMEs have grown at a rate of over 20% for three consecutive years. The North - Star 50 index's decline may signal a return to value for high - dividend and blue - chip assets. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [22][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 5 - month service and manufacturing PMI were better than expected. If tariffs decline, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean exports were in line with expectations. Rain may slow down the sowing progress but benefit the sown soybeans. The price of domestic imported soybeans remained stable, and the spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [28][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Domestic cotton yarn prices rose, but demand followed up slowly. China's textile and clothing exports in April increased year - on - year. Cotton commercial inventory decreased rapidly, and there may be a supply shortage in the later stage. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic about Zhengzhou cotton futures and pay attention to inventory and trade negotiations [31][34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Colombia imposed anti - dumping measures on Chinese welded pipes. Global crude steel production in April decreased year - on - year. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the decline rate slowed down. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to hold a light - position and wait and use a hedging strategy for spot [36][38]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate decreased, and inventory changed little. The starch sugar production rate increased. It is expected that the CS07 - C07 spread will remain in a low - level oscillation [40][41]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Heavy rain warnings were issued in some areas. North port corn inventory decreased significantly. Some hedging positions left the market, and the supply in the spot market is expected to increase. Corn prices are expected to rise [42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wens Co., Ltd. will continue its share - repurchase plan. The pig futures market is mainly trading based on long - term production capacity and short - term de - stocking speed. It is recommended to take profit on short positions [44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru plans to set up a mining fund, and a new copper - gold porphyry system was discovered in Argentina. China's copper industry index decreased slightly. Copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [46][48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of scrap batteries decreased, and the lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [51][52]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc spread was at a discount. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, and the medium - term view is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [53][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased in April. The average spot price of polysilicon decreased. It is recommended to focus on positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [56][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project is about to be put into operation. The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In March 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of high - nickel iron was active. It is expected that the main operating range of Shanghai nickel futures will be between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. Short - term band trading and medium - term long - buying opportunities can be considered [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwean lithium exporters are seeking to postpone the export tax. The supply of lithium carbonate is in surplus, and the cost support is weakening. The market is expected to remain unstable until the spot and downstream orders improve [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG production increased week - on - week, and port inventory decreased. The domestic LPG price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating in a narrow range. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is likely to be under pressure [69][70]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. European natural gas inventory is rising rapidly. The price of US natural gas is expected to oscillate upwards [71][73]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose steadily. The supply of caustic soda is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The impact of alumina price increase on caustic soda is indirect, and it is difficult to drive a significant increase in the caustic soda market [75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased slightly. The pulp market is expected to oscillate [77][78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The PVC market is expected to oscillate [79]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production rate increased week - on - week. The urea market is in a weak state. Urea prices are expected to oscillate, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [80][82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased slightly. The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate at a low level following the cost [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash decreased slightly. The soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations. In the short - term, plant maintenance may support the price, while in the medium - term, it is advisable to go short on rallies [86]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The glass futures price is weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level range. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Maersk adjusted its shipping route. The container freight rate on the European line rebounded. The short - term view is that the market will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on pullbacks [89].

金属期权 2025-05-22 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属盘整震荡偏上，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系大幅反弹回暖后逐 渐回落，适合构建卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属高位回落转弱止跌反弹大幅上扬，构建做空波动率策略和现货 避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2507 | 77,550 | -240 | -0.31 | 4.88 | ...

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（5.22） | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Economic Overview - Liaoning Province's economy showed overall stability from January to April, with industrial added value increasing by 3.0% year-on-year [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew significantly by 10.9% during the same period [1] Industrial Performance - The mining industry saw a substantial increase in added value by 16.0%, while manufacturing only grew by 0.5% [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 5.1% [1] - Among 40 major industrial categories, 30 experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth rate of 75.0% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Liaoning Province continued to expand, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] - Infrastructure investment rose by 11.9%, and manufacturing investment increased by 10.8% [2] - Real estate development investment, however, saw a significant decline of 25.1% [2] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 331.38 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [3] - Sales of basic living goods, such as grain and oil, increased by 20.2%, while smart phones surged by 66.4% [3] Export and Import Dynamics - Total import and export value for the province was 240.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year [3] - Exports amounted to 125.13 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.7%, while imports fell by 12.8% to 115.8 billion yuan [3] Price Trends - Consumer prices in Liaoning Province experienced a slight decline, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) down by 0.2% [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year [4]

服务行业：关注物流业出口相关政策限制。 1）欧盟表示，将对进入欧盟的小包裹收取手续费，这些小包裹大部 分来自中国。对此，外交部发言人表示，具体的问题建议向中方的主管部门了解，中方认为营造一个开放包容的 贸易环境符合各方的共同利益，希望欧方能够恪守开放的承诺，为中国企业提供公平透明非歧视的营商环境，为 中欧经贸合作创造有利条件。 宏观日报 | 2025-05-22 关注物流业出口相关政策限制 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注"俩新"政策推进情况。 1）上海市人民政府办公厅印发《上海市提振消费专项行动方案》。其中提 到，加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新。促进汽车消费，落实好国家汽车报废更新补贴和我市汽车置换更新补贴政策。 落实国家家电以旧换新补贴政策，新增手机、平板、智能手表（手环）等数码产品购新补贴，加力支持绿色家电 家居家装消费。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 数据来源：央视，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）农业：鸡蛋价格近期震荡。2）有色：铝近期价格持续回升。3）黑色：玻璃、橡胶价格短期回落。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落。2）基建：沥 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-22 宏观预期偏弱，黑色震荡运行 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 钢材：宏观情绪扰动，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货与热卷期货的主力合约小幅震荡运行，螺纹钢主力合约2510收于3061元/吨，热卷主力合约2510收 于3211元/吨，期货市场交投一般，现货市场整体成交情况一般，全国建材成交9.8万吨。 供需与逻辑：整体来看，建材产销存环比好转，但考虑到长流程利润尚可，建材产量持稳，而随着南方地区进入 主汛，建材消费将逐步回落。板材产量有所下滑，消费维持高位，库存持续去库，支撑着板材价格。在国内低价 优势下，钢材出口韧性较强，虽然国内通过出口分流很大程度上抵消了对美出口下滑的影响，但是高关税持续影 响下，未来对于出口不排除存在边际拖累的可能，因此钢材价格表现偏弱。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，同时 关注关税对钢材间接出口的影响。 策略 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：铁水产量高位，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面震荡上行，截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约涨幅0.76%。现货方面，铁 ...

近期，A股市场再次迎来一波回购增持热潮。 据证券时报·数据宝统计，截至5月21日，2025年第二季度以来发布回购和增持预案的上市公司数量合计 达到394家（剔除定向回购），相比第一季度的246家上市公司，增长超过六成。 20家公司拟回购金额上限超10亿元 以预告回购金额上限计算，截至5月21日，4月以来发布回购预案的上市公司，公告回购金额上限合计达 到778.2亿元。 具体来看，公告回购金额上限在10亿元及以上的20家上市公司中，宁德时代、徐工机械和美的集团回购 金额上限最高，分别为80亿元、36亿元和30亿元。 上市公司重要股东对公司发展、行业前景更加了解，其增持行为表明了对公司内在价值的认可，对上市 公司股价有一定的提振作用。 据数据宝统计，首次发布增持预案至最新收盘日，重要股东拟增持的公司股价平均上涨超9%，宁波海 运、小商品城等5家公司股价累计涨幅在30%以上，成交活跃度显著增加。 宁波海运4月9日收盘后发布增持计划，控股股东的一致行动人拟增持公司不超过2413.07万股股份，占 公司总股本的比例不超过2%。受益于航运板块热度上升，公司股价自5月13日开始连续5个交易日涨 停，近两个交易日连续回调，增 ...